I bought a new television during the holidays. I don’t buy things for myself, really, so this is a major purchase for Lowetide and I absolutely love it. I also received cologne (high end!), a new humidifier, tons of socks and hoodies and a subscription to some sporting events I can get on my phone (I haven’t figured that one out yet). I ate well. I hope you had a wonderful holiday and welcome to January Oilers talk!
The Athletic article is about a struggling Adam Henrique and the Oilers depth picking up the slack. It is here.
DICK TRACY
Many years ago, I went to the movie Dick Tracy. It’s a beautifully filmed movie, making up for some writing and acting flaws. I don’t remember much about it, but do remember one of the most hilarious scenes from Al Pacino. That’s the best on-screen depiction about how my brain works ever!
Since it’s the beginning of the calendar year, I want to share a few thoughts I’m having and a few more I think I’m having.
Generally speaking, a team like the Oilers should win a championship during the McDavid-Draisaitl-Nurse era. It doesn’t always happen, the Ratelle-Park-Giacomin Rangers didn’t get it done, nor did the Bobby Smith-Dino Ciccarelli-Craig Hartsburg Minnesota North Stars.
With due respect to those two teams, there’s just too much quality at the top for these Edmonton Oilers. The process of taking these Aces, Kings and Jacks to the promised land has always involved finding enough sixes and sevens and nines.
Since 2015, the Oilers have had a difficult time filling out the roster with actual helpers. I’m not suggesting they needed another elite forward, I’m saying that many of the forwards who played with this team since 2015 were below replacement level hockey players. You have to work hard to accomplish that kind of roster, because the waiver wire had better options than Gaetan Haas, Mikko Koskinen, Kyle Turris and others.
Things are better now.
Why? For me, the turnaround started when Jay Woodcroft arrived. He brought with him several young Condors (Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Stuart Skinner, Markus Niemelainen) and elevated the role played by Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod. In doing so, he added another strong pool of talent to the NHL team.
The farm team is important, and the kids who are showing well should get some time with the big team.
Matthew Savoie has scored 4-5-9 in his last five games. Noah Philp is 7-7-14 in 24 games and Bakersfield is outscoring opponents when he’s on the ice at an exceptional rate compared to veterans like Seth Griffith and Lane Pederson. Matvey Petrov has six goals in his last seven games. In his last five games, Olivier Rodrigue owns a .949 save percentage.
These men are unlikely to be a big part of the Oilers Stanley Cup run in 2025, but they can help. Savoie has sublime skills and could give the team a boost offensively. Same for Petrov. Philp is a no-brainer, he should be here now.
Rodrigue? He has NHL talent, and could elevate the position and give some competition to the goaltending down the stretch.
At the very least, NHL exposure would give these players increased trade value. I think this team could learn a little from Jay Woodcroft, the man without a single grey hair. Elevate your young players, let them see the light of day. You might be surprised by the results, and you don’t owe anything to the veterans who are taking up roster spots without pushing the river.
You owe it to your fans and players, to ice the most competitive team possible. Every game. Call up Noah Philp! And Matthew Savoie before the end of the season, too. And for crying out loud give Ollie Rodrigue one NHL game. You did it for Jim Corsi, and look what happened!!
It’s Thursday and we’re back on the radio, Sports 1440 starting at noon today. Rachel Doerrie from ESPN and Betalytics will join us at 12:40, plus Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will drop in at 1pm. We’ll chat Oilers, NHL overall, trade deadline, the next recall, college and NFL football and more! I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Demko left the game tonight (and won’t return)…..
Gibson played tonight for the Ducks so the Oilers likely to see Dostal again tomorrow.
Not the first time an Oil King has disappointed a Canadian team.
Crushing PP goal by the Czechs. Game tilted by poor officiating.
Yep finger prints all over this game. IIHF classic.
Finn and US ref pure garbage.
This is unreal. Line is established. CZE player moves out of the way.
Tie game! Canada lives!
Canada dominating the third period desperate for tying goal. Dang lose the challenge. No breaks from this officiating crew.
In hindsight a poor challenge.
Summarizing!
The House of Stone potted his 4th goal of the season and an assist with a team-high 5 SOG.
Wakely did not receive the gift of soup.
My lord. Canada gives up a 3 on 2 and gives up a goal with 2 seconds left in the period. This team is rattled and playing poorly. Certainly could be done after this game. Two goal lead not insurmountable but team will have to be a LOT better in last two periods. Not making the medal round with the tournament held in Canada would be humbling for sure.
Brutal own goal.
Shorty!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Canada woes continue with 5 min major and a game misconduct……
SHORTY!
That was a terrible call. Never changed his line. Body first. Sikora checked for the call and then went for the Oscar.
Yea watching the replay between periods not sure that was even a 2 min penalty????
Woof tough start for Canada to give up an early goal.
Dick Tracy is a profoundly underrated comic book movie:
1: As Lowetide mentioned, the art direction is amazing. I don’t know if it was actually his idea, but Warren Beatty took credit for replicating the limited colour variation from old comics — there was only one shade of red, blue, or any other colour throughout the film.
2: Al Pacino hamming it up, even by Al Pacino standards.
3: A great McDonalds marketing tie-in — I had a lot of free burgers / fries / drinks that Summer.
The Knights Power Wins, Power wins are by 2 or more goals, no EN. Clear Losses are also by 2 or more, no EN:
GP 37
Power Wins – 11
Wins – 13
OT Wins – 2
SO Wins – 1
Clear Losses – 9
Losses – 4
OT Losses – 1
SO Losses – 1
Goal Diff +31
Last 10 8-2
STRK L1
PDO 1.018
SV% ALL .902 (7th)
SH% ALL 11.52 (6th)
Leads Lost – 2
Comebacks – 3
GF/PPG – 16%
The Knights have had 18 games against currently good teams and won 10, the Oilers 13 games and won 5. They’re pretty even but the Knights are playing better as a team overall and are better in harder games it seems. The Caps have beat them twice 9-4 GF/GA, must be their nemesis team
Here is the Power Wins break down for this season. I have only done the Oilers so far:
Power wins are by 2 or more goals, no EN. Clear Losses are also by 2 or more, no EN.
GP 37
Power Wins – 12
Wins – 10
OT Wins – 6
SO Wins – 0
Clear Losses – 8
Losses – 7
OT Losses – 1
SO Losses – 0
Goal Diff +17
Last 10 7-2-1
STRK W1
PDO .995
SV% ALL .892 (16th)
SH% ALL 10.23 (22nd)
I’m tracking PP GF as a % of GF as well. Currently it’s 121 GF, PP GF 22 18% (16th in PP GF). As a benchmark the 10 top other teams in GF:
Jets 142 GF, PP GF 39 27%
Caps 135 GF, PP GF 24 18%
Bolts 134 GF, PP GF 28 21%
Devils 132 GF, PP GF 34 26%
Knights 130 GF. PP GF 22 17%
Avs 129 GF, PP GF 27 21%
Panthers 129 GF, PP GF 30 23%
Hurricanes 128 GF, PP GF 30 23%
Jackets 125 GF, PP GF 22 18%
I’m encouraged to see the Oilers at the bottom end of this range. A strong PP is great but cannot be relied upon to win playoff games as part of the plan, the refs game manage too much or they can’t score when critically needed, as we know
I also decided to track Leads Lost and Comebacks which is another good indicator of team strength to me, defined as giving up or coming back from a two goal lead. So far 5 Leads Lost, 3 Comebacks. 2 LL were in December, hopefully the rest of the season they dial it in
Since Nov 21 all but one win has been a Power Win, no Clear Losses, but they have given up 2 leads. Also 3 OT wins since then, they all count but winning if Reg is what you want. Much better as they go, but still a bit wobbly for my liking. They do seem to finish stronger, and I’d like to see them control more games and save something for playoffs given they run the top players so hard
Given the west has strong teams playing well they will need every advantage it looks like
These are cool breakdowns of the results. Appreciated when you did this last season, thanks for keeping it going.
I see the proportion of 5v5 vs PP goals more of a function of the early season PP futility than any kind of intent to improve 5v5 play. I think both game states will improve as the season goes along, and everyone gets comfortable in their defined roles.
No worries
Agreed about goals. I’d be worried if the proportion of PP goals was too high. Have to score 5v5 in the playoffs especially in critical games where there are usually fewer penalties and less later in the games
The Jets and Devils are high, and to me their seasons are reflecting too much luck and reliance on PP. All goals are good, but we’ll see how playoffs treat them if they are still hot
Currently I see the Caps and Knights as the strongest East/West, and their % is on the lower end
This is why they bet on Skinner and Arvidsson because of their 5 on 5 numbers when the going gets tough. I will not pass judgement until the playoffs are over.
And you see Skinner suddenly scoring when the going gets tough?
Why?
I think the key component, as you’ve alluded to other times, is style of play.
We’ve had a plethora of Fancy Dans for years, looking to pass the puck into the net, and we see what happens in the playoffs when space becomes limited.
EDM needs guys who can consistently take the puck to the paint, or use their skating and IQ to create time and space for their linemates.
This line up is not going to win this year’s Stanley Cup (with our average goaltending)
Slotted correctly here is the need at the trade deadline.
XXX- McDavid -Hyman
Kane – Draisaitl- Arvidsson
Podkolzin- Hopkins- Savoie
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Philp
Ekholm -XXX
Nurse – Bouchard
Kulak-Emberson
Stecher
Skinner
Pickard
kane and arvi on the same line whos gonna back check lol
It’s much easier to acquire a 3C and 2RD than a 1LW and 1RD (hens teeth). Perhaps Henrique can step up and eliminate the 3C need (or he goes to 1LW as a defensive conscience).
Henrique has the game to do well at 3C, but I think he has to have the right wingers. Playoffs he was 9-6 goals but with Jan and Brown their possession numbers weren’t pretty, not sustainable probably
He’s probably a better winger at this point. It seems they are a bit thin down the middle bottom 6, given Nuge gets caved at C usually, Janmark isn’t a C, Henri is aging out, Ryan is done. Philp might help, be interesting to see how Bowman sees it by what he does deadline and off season
If Henri played wing given they don’t have a winger to easily trade out, getting pretty crowded
I think they would be better getting stronger at C (no Bjugstads) and with a bigger good defender to play with Nurse or Emberson/Stecher. PuckIQ looks that way on the graph
Evan Bouchard has been one of the best performing d-men in history over the last two playoffs – 2-ways.
So, Miller or Pettersson? Which one gets moved? Bonus points for guessing the destination and the main piece in the return.
Pettersson to Buffalo for Cozens and Byram and a 2nd round draft pick and a conditional 2nd round draft pick based on Byram re-signing.
Can no longer have trade conditions based on a player re-signing.
lol, I would keep Miller as far as a beast player in the playoffs, but it sounds as if he is an issue and bit of a bully in the room. ( don’t know that for sure but there has been a few reports of it. Petterson seems to be a bit of a baby and if he is upset can’t perform up to par. It is a bit of a poop show in Van. Boesser as well seems a bit off.
I would shop both and see what the best return would be
If I were VAN I’d keep JT, so they’ll keep EP.
EDM should have listened to godot and picked him up when he was available for assets on hand.
What a great win for Illinois over South Carolina. Go Illini !!!!
And Michigan over Alabama.
To me, Woody was not much different than the coaches before him – relying heavily on veteran at the NHL level and fading the younger players – Critical of rookie mistakes notwithstanding the veterans making those mistake as well.
Oh yes, he was different. Especially in his first half season and much of the next. He elevated his players. Vincent Desharnais especially, but others too.
Elevating Deharnais coincided directly with fading Broberg who never again got to play in a 6D set-up, only in the terrible 7D.
The Broberg fade was the direct result of adding so many lefties.
Desharnais was third pair RH side, OP. Respectfully, that’s not true. In 2022-23, Desharnais first season, he played 36 games and Broberg played 46.
My question is, why did they choose Desharnais over Broberg to play third pair RHD?
Woodie had his fingerprints all over that decision. Sure, it forces Broberg over to RD, but the then coach decided to fade Broberg to elevate Mr. Seaweed. Which proved to be a mistake.
There was talk about Broberg playing with Ekholm in the summer of 2023 but then Ekholm got hurt at the captain’s practice and the idea was mothballed.
I do not recall a major push for Broberg to play right side, as the idea was to have sticks on their appropriate side until summer 2023.
Ekholm was paired with Bouchard on Ekholm’s arrival to the team. Broberg & Bouchard were paired together prior to Ekholm. Vinnie was paired with Kulak at that time, Nurse & Ceci were the top pair. You are correct there was a kafuffle about defensemen playing on their appropriate side. My question is why they would fade Broberg over Desharnais regardless of appropriate sides, knowing that Broberg was and is the superior player. I don’t believe it was the proper decision at the time by Woodcroft and that is possibly what OP was referring to.
They were already experimenting with Broberg on the right side in the latter part of 22/23. He played mostly with Bouchard before the Ekholm trade, but after Ekholm arrived he played in 11 games mostly with the 7 D format. In those 11 games, he spent 73 minutes paired with Nurse, Kulak and Ekholm 5 on 5, generally on the right. He only played 25 minutes combined with Bouchard, Ceci and Desharnais on the left side.
Continuing into the playoffs that season, because of the injury to Janmark, Broberg got into 9 games, mostly as the 7th D. He played 38 minutes 5 on 5 with Nurse, Kulak and Ekholm and only 20 minutes with Ceci, Bouchard and Desharnais.
With Nurse, Ekholm and Kulak on LD, competing for a spot on the right side was the only regular spot available, unless they traded Kulak or moved Kulak to the right side. Unfortunately for Broberg, that left side stayed unusually healthy as well. Same thing that happened to Bouchard during the pandemic season on the right side. The Oilers sadly due to many of their poor starts to a few too many seasons recently, haven’t had the comfort level to take risks mid year on line up experimentation.
My recollection (and feel free to correct me if I’m wrong) is that, prior to the Deharnais recall, they deployed Broberg/Bouchard as the 3rd pairing for apx 6-7 weeks (apx 15 games) and they were doing very well in that role.
At the same time, Kulak was treading water only as the 2LD partially leading to the Ekholm acquisition and the PK was bleeding and losing games, leading to the Deharnais recall.
Once Deharnais was inserted in to the lineup mainly due to the PK and Ekholm was on the the team, well, Broberg completely lost his roll as the every day 3LD and was only deployed in a 7D set-up.
Woody elevated Deharnais but it coincided with a fading of Broberg that never ended – I believe his next game in a 6D deployment was game 1 last season because Ekholm was hurt.
Broberg played 7:06 with Bouchard and 3:49 with Desharnais (and 2 with Barrie) in Desharnais first game.
Desharnais had 3:49 wth Broberg, 5:58 with Nurse and Brett Kulak 2:34
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20222023&game=20660
Woodcroft and Manson immediately reduced Bouchard’s ice time to around 18 minutes per game paired with Keith, which had previously been close to 22 minutes per game under Tippett that season including playing mostly with Nurse and killing penalties. He continued playing only 18 minutes per game under Woodcroft until the trading of Barrie for Ekholm almost a year after Woodcroft’s arrival.
Dave Tippett played rookie Ethan Bear 22 minutes per game in 19/20 on the first pair with Nurse. At Christmas, that same season, he put Yamamoto on a line with Draisaitl and Hopkins. Jones was given plenty of opportunities as was Lagesson. When Jesse came back the next season from Finland at the age of 22, he was given a huge amount of opportunity in the Oilers top 6 over the next season and a half. Jesse’s ice time per game was reduced under Woodcroft after coming back from injury that season (Kane’s signing impacted that for sure).
I remember Broberg looking like a deer in the headlights, getting pushed around and losing nearly all of the physical elements of the game, everyone could see the speed and puck skill but he just wasn’t physically ready for the bigs. In steps Desharnais who’s best attribute was handling the physical aspect of the game. Broberg was sent down to dominate and ripen while learning how to physically handle the NA game.
Can’t really fault the organization for how they handled it, allow the skilled defender to develop his craft in prime pairing minutes on the farm club while using the older physical player to handle the 3rd pairing grind.
Broberg then brought up for the cup run and asked to contribute, looking noticeably different then he had before. Not getting demolished everytime he touched the puck, getting into better position, not holding onto the puck. All things he blossomed in a top pairing role developing on the farm club.
Holland should of traded him for Barbashev when Broberg repeatedly wanted out.
Or did Broberg have an injury? I don’t recall Broberg losing the physical elements of the game.
I do not have the same assessment of Broberg’s play that you do in any way.
Matt Savoie’s game over the last 3 weeks or so is full value for those numbers. Maybe its just a heater but the kid’s game has fully popped in that time – he’s impacting the game now on a shift by shift basis (as opposed to flashing his skill and smarts a few shifts per game). He is also a tenacious player with good 2-way responsibility. I would give him another month at least of continuing to be “this player” before calling him up (unless injuries pile up) but he is coming and I think he’s going to be more impactful at the next level given his game style.
Its very clear with the healthy scratches piling up, that Derek Ryan’s time in the NHL is fading fast. It will be Philp’s time in fairly short order.
Amazing run by Petrov to put him self back in the conversation given where things were in October and early November. Finishing the season like he has been playing will have his name mentioned more come training camp.
It’s interesting that Savoie has two more years on his ELC after this one. It was hard to see McLeod go but Savoie could have a major impact over the next few years due to his cap hit. That’s a big win for the Oilers.
Selfishly, I hope they wait till February to call either of them up. The Comdors play in Coachella Jan 26th and I would like to see the changes in the two since I saw them in Tuscan a couple months ago. What Savoie is doing reminds me of what Bouchard did in his first season in Bakersfield. Level of intensity comes to mind. Would like to see the changes in Savoie in person. I already was impressed with Philps game.
Per Tony B:
Coach mentioned last game that the in-game adjustment was paritally to get Hyman back on the right side as it had been a long time since he played on the left wing.
I wouldn’t think they’d be locked in to these lines for the game but they clearly want to open up some options with Hyman getting some reps ont he left.
That’s a goofy 3rd line. I wonder if the logic is to get Hyman up to speed on LW against softer opposition with the long term plan being RNH at 3C
I don’t think that’s the case as they could do that now with Skinner, Janmark, Henrique, or Perry being elevated to the top line and have Nuge playing 3C now.
It doesn’t show up on the scoresheet but Imo Nuge is more welded to McDavid then people realize as he covers a lot defensively for a pressing McDavid.
They want to get Hyman up to speed on the right wing, why wouldn’t they want Nuge getting up to speed in a permanent center role if that’s the long term plan?
Almost at the halfway point of the season so thought a look at the Hart / Lindsay run would be in order.
Player: G / A / pts / ESG / ESA / GWG
Nathan: 14 / 47 / 61 / 11 /32 / 3
Leon: 27 / 29 / 56 / 20 / 20 / 8
Mikko: 21 / 22 / 54 / 15 / 23 / 5
Kutch: 15 / 39 / 54 / 10 / 28 / 2
Connor: 15 / 39 / 54 / 10 / 28 / 2
It is clear that Leon is contributing more than all the others at the hardest things to do in hockey (as a skater), which is to score goals, score ESG and score GWG. It should be noted that Leon and Mikko are the only ones from the above 5 in the Top 10 in pts, goals and GWG.
I have Leon as the first skater in the Hart / Lindsay race. If Hellebuyck can continue his current pace (2.00 / 0.930 in 31 games played) an argument could be made for him to win the Vezina and one of the other major awards.
Prediction:
Leon again accomplishes that rare feat of 50 goals and 50 assists in a season. In the last 10 years only Leon has accomplished this more than once (with only 4 other players getting it once).
Leon wins the Rocket and at least one of the Hart and Lindsay. McDavid wins his second Conn Smythe.
TBL have 3 games in hand on the Oilers.
Kucherov leads the league at 1.69 P/GP and trails Draisaitl by 2 points in the scoring race so is likely to surpass him perhaps as early as tonight when the Lightning play the Sharks.
In the goal scoring race, Brayden Point has scored 4 fewer goals than Draisaitl but has played 7 fewer games and, of course, will have an opportunity to close the gap when the Lightning make up the 3 games in hand.
MacKinnon has achieved the leadership of the points standings despite having his regular line mates missing significant time due to injury but Jonathan Drouin and Arthur Lehkonen have now returned helping Colorado to a recent 8-2-0 record.
MacKinnon has 11 points (2.2 P/GP) in his last 5 games played with those players back in the lineup.
I’ll pretend I am you. Ahem:
Colorado has 1 game on hand over the Oilers so it’s reasonable to assume that Draisaitl will score 6 points and take leadership of the points standings.
That was easy. I win I guess.
At current scoring rates, Draisaitl will score 1.51 points in that extra game.
However, Colorado hosts the Buffalo Sabres tonight…the Sabres are among the worst teams in the league in GA/GP and have given up 4 or more goals in 11 games in. December.
There’s a pretty good chance that 5 point gap will be somewhat higher by tomorrow.
I have seen far too many of your:
“reasonable to assume”
“pretty good chance that”
posts where the outcome was the opposite of what you assumed or chanced.
Talking specifically about goals, ESG and GWG – not apples or points per game. I know it is hard for you to stay on the subject being discussed, but hopefully your mom’s basement has enough light and electricity for you to follow along on you Commodore 64.
Then why did you not mention that Kaprizov has the same number of ESG and 1 fewer ESP in 3 fewer games?
And how many of those goals by Kaprizov were EN?
Now do the same thing for Draisaitl.
Remember that time from December 10 to 19 when Draisaitl had 14 points in 5 games? That was fun. Weird that Mackinnon hasn’t done that, isn’t it? Is this really fun for you? Like, is that actually how you want to spend your time? Ignoring everyone’s point and making things up to annoy strangers on the internet? Does that bring you fulfillment?
8 points vs. actual goalies in thise games. Mack & Mikko are going to break Kuch’s brand new record for empty net points in a season.
They didn’t trade for Savoie so he could waste away in the minors like so many others under Holland. Philip would be up with the big club already if he deserved it same goes for Rodrique who will get a few games near the end of the season. If we had a Clattenburg in Bakersfield holding his own I know he would be up with the big club. Bowman’s always had a highly skilled team with good goaltending and a handful of push back players that can skate.
I, for one, am reasonably excited for the QF tonight (and a day of hockey games). I’m never overly emotionally invested in this tournament but look for some fun hockey tonight and maybe these kids can “prove it to the country” who have written them off and, to be honest, in many cases, been horribly vulgar to a group of teenagers.
I would note that, while I don’t know much about him, Dave Cameron does seem like a pretentious and arrogant dick from what I’ve seen. Not easy to cheer for him.
Tell us how you really feel about Cameron.
One big difference: Dave Cameron is not a teenager.
Will Emberson sign a contract before the trade deadline, or will he bet on himself, and play the season out?
How hard are the Oilers going to grind him? Are the Oilers going to offer him more than they offered you know who?
Emberson is a tough player to evaluate IMO. RSD are unicorns. His toi is quite low in Edmonton. He is strong on the PK. Underwhelming even strength results but he also never plays with Connor.
I’m not sure about him either. I also don’t think not playing with Connor is somehow a disadvantage. Most D in the league don’t play with him, and most 3rd pair don’t play with the top 2C as much
Every player has to win their shifts more than they don’t if they are good players. Thats what defines the top teams. That Vegas keeps rolling along deep a lot of changes, or the Bruins
Given he will have played apx the equivalent of one season in the NHL and made prob less than $1.5MM career at 25, he very well may be enticed by a guaranteed $4.8MM over three years.
Perhaps betting they he’ll be an established 2RD heading in to his prime years at UFA expiry.
Maybe teams wants to kick that can down the road on a one year deal closer to $1MM but I think a three year deal is a good and reasonable bet from both sides.
Signing him takes away the danger of injury (see Tyler Pitlick) and that’s a positive. I think the player might be wise to see this play out, he needs 15 games over the last 45 but injuries can impact.
In exchange for giving up his possible free agency and signing now, does Emberson extract any cap value from Edmonton?
We’ll see.
I’d imagine Bowman will offer him something approximating the value he’s proven comparable to around the league, with a little built in for inflation and skills progression over the term of the contract.
He’s not getting offered $1MM/year, but there’s no way he’s getting $4MM a year either.
IMO Emberson is less than a $2MM/year player until he consistently proves otherwise.
Sometimes it’s in the player’s best interests to take a bit less and establish themselves as bona fide before cashing in. Vinny isn’t really running away with it in VAN, and he’s only making $2MM. Maybe another year or two of lower AAV here in EDM would have elevated his value higher over the long term.
Emberson turns 25 during the 2025 SC run. Dmen can, and do, play at their highest level longer and in lots of cases play their best between 27 – 32 years of age. At this point, Emberson is a good 3rd pairing RHD with upside. That should equate to around $1.8 – $2.2 per year on a multi-year deal.
If he thinks he can improve to be a solid 2nd pairing RHD, then taking a 2 – 3 year x say $2 per playing on a contender should set him up for a big pay day in his late twenties.
For all that the trade connects him with Ceci, the actual job that Emberson has earned is Vinny’s. 3RD, 1PK.
At $2 million AAV, Desharnais is likely overpriced for the role & has proven to be a lot less popular in Vancouver than he was in Edmonton Oilers are rumoured to have offered $1.5 (x3 ?) but he went for the bigger bucks, & it’s not looking like a good gamble right now,
i wonder if Bowman might offer something similar as 3x $1.5 for Emberson. He’s promising but has been overwhelmed in some games & remains far from a sure bet.
Are you assuming Desharnais will be gone from the league after this contract? $4 million in the bank over 2 seasons and the chance to still sign for at least the league minimum the 3rd season vs. $4.5 million over 3 seasons seems like a decent gamble. Since it has big signing bonuses, even if the Canucks bought him out, he only loses about $250,000 of the total.
And its possible injuries led to him getting replaced by Broberg in the playoffs, but he only got back into 1 game in the finals replacing Ceci. At the time he chose to leave, all 6 defenseman who played ahead of him in the finals were still on the Oilers roster (Broberg an RFA) and he would likely have assumed all were likely staying so he sought opportunity on another team.
I’ve watched a few recent Canucks games. Vinny looks better than he did, and given that they’re missing Hughes and Hronek (injuries), he may be earning his way to more ice time. I’ve certainly heard no recent “trade Desharnais” chants on the rumour radio. At least not as loud as they were.
Observation:
Ty Emberson
65 games 1 goal 14 assists -8 TOI 18:33 SJ 14:58 EDM
role: 3RD, PK
Other guy before offersheet
81 games 2 goal 11 assists -5 TOI 12:42
role 3LD, someRD, PK
19 playoffs 2 goals 1 assist +11
TOI (Last years playoffs15:48), (Excluding last year 6:31)
role 3LD, 2RD, PK
The majority said the other guy did not earn an AAV of $1.6 million.
The majority seems to say Emberson earned an AAV of $1.6 million.
I suppose this is progress.
Other guy this year mostly as a 2LD (3 games with Parayko)
26 games 3 goals 11 assists +11 TOI 20:33 (top plus/minus on a team with a GD of -11).
Add in last years playoffs, and the other guy is +19 in his last 36 games as a 2LD and 2RD with.
An offer of 2 x $2 million AAV late in June or early in July, would have been appropriate.
Red herring alert!
Emberson wasn’t Broberg’s replacement.
I am discussing what is a fair offer for Emberson vs. what was the offer for the other guy base on role and performance at the time of the offer.
Emberson replaced Ceci.
Losing two players to offersheets seems to have more people willing to pay fair value or more expectations based to young players instead of grinding them down to a pulp.
Emberson at this point has less of a track record than the other guy did last July 1, but more people seem more than willing to pay him more than what they were demanding the other guy sign for to remain an Oiler.
Sure let’s discuss what is a fair contract for Emberson and if anything was learned from the OS fiasco, but what’s with the “Emberson replaced Ceci”?
I suppose this is one of those instances where we’ll have to agree to disagree.
Broberg and Holloway were being offered exactly what they’d earned based off what their comparables across the league had recently accepted. That’s not being ground down to a pulp — that’s the market.
Emberson, as Bruce alluded to earlier, replaced Vinny. The deployment and results speak for themselves. Ceci, for all his warts, has yet to be replaced.
And I don’t see anyone around here clamouring to overpay Emberson akin to Broberg. Don’t forget, the whole point of an offer sheet is to entice a player away from their current situation — an overpayment by definition. Even Vinny’s deal in VAN would be too rich. In fact, I’d suggest Emberson should see something in the ballpark $1.5MMx3 on his next deal, anything more would be an overpay based on results and trajectory. If he proves value, he’ll make bank on his next deal. Non-core players (IE those outside of: Connor, Leon, Nurse, Bouchard, and Stuart Skinner) don’t make the big dollars, everyone else is expected to take a discount for the betterment of the team as a whole.
Do you actually think Broberg (or Holloway for that matter) would have gotten the minutes in EDM that he’s getting on a bubble team in STL, and put up similar boxcars? I suppose it’s possible, but I have a hard time seeing it from here.
Agree with this completely.
Was management attempting to grind Broberg (and Holloway)? Of course they were. At the same time that was (is) absolutely normal process for players coming off their ELC there are not budding starts and, in particular, not established in the NHL. The Oilers were attempting to get these players on short term team-friendly deals that were material value for cap hit – the only time where the team has the leverage to do so.
A 25 year old RFA with arbitration rights is not comparable.
I agree with your post except for the last paragraph.
I would like to see a Janmark-Philp-Savoie 4th line for a stretch.
Perry and Ryan need to be phased out of playing every night. Especially Ryan. I love him but he is near the end of the line.
Yes both players need to be phased out. Perry scores some greasy goals still so I doubt they put him on waivers this year. But to add Philp and possibly Savoie before years end, guys will either have to be hurt or waivered, especially after Kane returns.
I think they really should have Philp up her now to see if he can fill that #4 spot nightly and contribute so they don’t need to add another C man at the deadline .
It really is time to trade Skinner , thus it opens a spot for Philp immediately
How do you trade Skinner? He wants to be on a playoff team. He has a full NMC so can’t be traded (without his approval) nor waived and sent to the AHL. He probably asked for that clause so he couldn’t be traded away at the deadline when he was on track to finally making the playoffs. He almost certainly wouldn’t accept a trade to a non-playoff team. Is there a team comfortably in a playoff spot that would trade for him for anything that would not make the Oilers worse off than hanging on to him?
Some people have suggested he might be willing to go because he is worried about his next contract and needs a chance to prove himself again. Seems unlikely he would be concerned about that. He has made close to $100 million in his career and on top of that, the Sabres are paying him $2.444 million for each of the next 6 seasons for the buyout.
They would have traded by now if it wasn’t for those meddling kids.
Maybe he gets to thinking If I can get out of here even on a shitty team I may get pp time and raise my stats where I can get moved at the deadline to a playoff team? A poorer team may take him and utilize him for a pick at the deadline. A team taking him won’t have to give up anything really if they are taking that salary.
I think Knoblauch has been pretty clear about Perry’s value to the club. Not in scoring, but in his experience and attitude. The intangibles. I’m guessing he’s on the roster at least until they hoist the Cup this Spring.
I think if you bring Savoie up he needs to play with skilled players. Kid is a gifted passer and not a Defense specialist
Savoie has played with Philp for most of the season.
Knobber does not deploy his 4th line in a defensive specialist role. He deploys the 4th line against other 3rd and 4th lines. A perfect spot for Savoie to feast on lesser competition.
Savoie has played with Philp for most of the season but his recent “break out” coincides with Pederson moving up to be his center.
Savoie is a responsible 2-way player and a tenacious player (similar to Yamamoto) but his top attributes are puck plays – quick and smart plays with the puck – he needs to be with offensive minded players to be truly fully utilized.
This isn’t to say that he couldn’t start on a 3rd line with a reasonably skilled center like Henrique but, ultimately, I think Drai is his perfect match on this team.
Jackson hooped Bowman. I was on board with Skinner purely for his 5v5 goal scoring which I agreed was not as good as it should be. I also didn’t look into him, and now am surprised that somehow they got past that he’s not really the two way type that they needed. If that was a pro scout recommendation Bowman should be unimpressed
It turns out that not having an extra 1M cap cushion makes it hard to call up players when you also can’t really waive anyone. Next season it will hopefully be better that way
Can’t see them playing Savoie on the 4th line. I could however see them playing him on a third line. But only if there’s an injury or two. Philp seems destined for the fourth line, with only Derek Ryan standing in his way.
Well said LT.
This is something Slats seemed to understand intuitively, something Mac T dabbled in with players of his own mould, and something no one else driving the bus seems to have figured out – play the yewts! use ‘em or lose ‘em, as last summer sadly demonstrates.
Great clip. I laffed.
and young Jay, as mentioned (obv.)
“I’m having a thought” – to all you young guys, this is your future, if not already your present!
As the organization invests in player development, there are terrible hangovers from an over ripe era of managers.
Rodrigues, $125,000 AHL; $775,000 NHL
Philp $80,000 AHL; $925,000 NHL
Petrov $75,000 AHL; $803,333 NHL
Savoie $82,500 AHL; $866,666 NHL
The Oilers need to balance play time and pay time for these players. A week or so on the fourth line or backing up is not a huge drop of quality but might be a good investment in these four players.
Can’t agree except maybe for Philp.
The organization (well, coaching staff) has started to fade Ryan and we can all foresee the Philp call-up sometime fairly soon.\
I do agree that Rodrigue has earned an NHL start but, at the same time, how do you do this – reasonably. Sure, you could just call him up and crater the cap accrual for a game and give him a start over Pickard but, practically and reasonably it shouldn’t happen – not with Pickard playing as solidly as he has over the last year. Pickard has earned his 1 in 3 starts and should get them. If he starts to struggle, sure, maybe call up Rodrigue but, other than that, he waits for an injury or if the team has a couple garbage games late in the year.
Savoie is earning that call-up in real time but lets not talk about him being over-rype in the 3 months in to his ELC. He’s been dynamic recently but we are talking about 3-4 weeks since he’s started to settle in to the pro game. He is earning a call-up, and this season, but another month (or longer) for him to show consistency and continued progression makes perfect sense. Logan Stankoven played almost 50 AHL games last season.
Petrov – we aren’t seriously thinking a call-up is warranted after 10 good games (after being damn close to ECHL demoted a month ago), are we? I’m loving Petrov’s recent game and his progression and very heartened he’s put his name back in the conversation but let this kid continue to develop in the clear appropriate league.
Prospecterendum!
It’s but a pair of NAmateurs today with Akey still at the WJHC.
Frankly, Mr. Wakely lately has been on a tear, amassing 11 points (4+7) his last 5 GP. His 34 points lead the Colts of Barrie.
However, Brady Stonehouse does not lead his team in scoring. Far from it. To be fair, he only rejoined the Barber Poles in early November. He has 3+4 in 15 GP and has seven games goalless gone.
Barrie (Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Both times are the same time and are also Sunrise Beach time.