Sunrise, sunrise, looks like morning in your eyes. There are times in life when renewal and the promise of a new day arrive like a cool breeze on a hot summer day. The Edmonton Oilers are in a championship window. Full stop. Those windows of opportunity arrive just like the first notes of that gorgeous Norah Jones song, and mostly they have sustain. Maybe five years, possibly 10, and these periods become the good old days.
Today’s article in The Athletic (here) is about Stan Bowman’s challenge and Glen Sather’s template. Bowman needs a trade that puts this team over the top with the asset cost around 20 cents on the dollar. No pressure.
Not every window holds a championship, and not every era includes annual excellence. My Montreal Expos opened the window in 1979, peaked in the 1981 NLCS (blue Monday), became a pedestrian unit (Dick Williams firing contributed) until Buck Rodgers and had a lovely late run with some of the 1981 team (well, Tim Raines) in 1987. After that, the team had to wait around for the kids and manager Felipe Alou to arrive, and that signaled another (very) short window for the team.
These Oilers opened the window in the spring of 2022 and have the look of a team that can run this way for several seasons. The key will be replenishing the roster with quality when the veterans who own big contracts with no-movement clauses begin to fade. That’s why Matthew Savoie is far more important to this team as a future roster piece than he is as a trade deadline rental.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
- December results: 9-3-1
- Oilers in 2024-25: 22-12-3, 47 points in 37 games
It’s an aggressive prediction, and the toughest result for me is the LAK game in Edmonton. The Oilers will be coming off a long road trip and are often flat. However, this is a veteran team and will want to claw back a little from the game in Hollywood in late December. If the Oilers cover my bet, they’ll end January with a record of 30-16-5, 65 points in 51 games. That’s a 105-point pace and could mean a sprint to the division championship (109 points last season).
OILERS FACTS
Edmonton owns a point percentage of .635, No. 7 in the NHL.
At five-on-five, the GF-60 is 2.56 (No. 11) and the GA-60 is 2.33 (No. 13). The goal share (52 percent) ranks No. 11 overall. I should note that since October 15, in 34 games, the GF60 is higher (2.72, No.9), the GA-60 (2.23, No. 11) slightly improved and the Save Percentage in those 34 games (.915, No. 14) is significantly better than the overall (.910, No. 18). My hope is that Kris Knoblauch’s team will do less experimenting and more solidifying during the 2025 preseason than was accomplished in 2024.
FUNNY THINGS YOU REMEMBER
There are times, when you’re watching a game, a modern player reminds you of a (seemingly) long forgotten one, but something from your memory banks connects the two. If can happen on the same team, same time (I swear there were times when Peter Driscoll had the same on-ice mannerisms as Mark Messier, although that connection stopped when the puck dropped) but often it’s an old v new thing.
Right now, when I watch these Edmonton Oilers, Leon Draisaitl’s on-ice presence reminds me of Mark Messier. High praise for certain, and the modern era doesn’t allow for Messier’s mind-bending (and rule breaking) physicality. However, in terms of on-ice dominance, I can’t think of a more appropriate candidate for Leon this year. At five-on-five during 2024-25, his goal share is 64 percent (32-18). His GA-60 is 1.78, and it’s 1.58 without Connor McDavid. Maybe you have a better comp, maybe it’s Sergei Fedorov or another (it is NOT Phil Esposito) but Mr. Draisaitl, right now, is playing some of the best hockey I’ve ever seen. Honestly.
A big Friday show as we preview January and tonight’s game on the Lowdown. We get started at noon, Sports 1440. Steve Lansky will join us from Inside the Truck Podcast, we’ll chat about the Oilers in the calendar year 2024 and what may come this season. We’ll also chat about the World Juniors and what happened to Team Canada. Tyler Yaremchuk will pop in and give his opinion about the new lines and how long we’ll see them. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Savoie with assists on the tying goal in the last minute and OT winner.
Curlock:
I listened to the end of the game on radio. Rodrigue stopped about 8 or 9 shots in the OT including 5 while Carrick was in the box. I believe he stopped 31 out of 35 overall.
He stopped about 4 on a 4 on 3 PP.
8 shots saved in OT, 5 during the penalty. Rodrigue was impressive, as is often the case.
Draisaitl is German for game winner.
Disco Stu stayin’ alive in the big moment.
Spitzenkäse!! 🚨
Savoie with the zone entry on the 4 on 4. A bit later he finds the soft area near the slot, takes a pass from Carrick (I believe) and buries it for the 3-2 lead.
King Leon with the timely snipe for a meaningful goal.
Ducks F showing up the lack of speed on the back end. Going to be tough to be patient to wait until the deadline to shore that up
They’ve managed to be the 2nd best team in the NHL over the last two plus months (before tonight’s win) so I think they can be patient. They are racking up points better than 30 other teams over a long stretch of play.
I am concerned that there is no improvement against teams that defend the Oilers like that
That Stu is an average goalie at best
It doesn’t matter what they are doing reg season. President Trophy winners don’t win Cups
They aren’t making progress in playoff ways. Connor is playing his worst hockey in a long while
Leon is their best player meaning Connor Ek and Bouch aren’t
I don’t care about reg seasons, I care about Cups
As it stands with there being at least 4 WC teams also playing as good, with what I am seeing they will be lucky to get through because they are having to rely on luck too much
This isn’t a normal roster for a team, that is the difference. They should be able to be a dominant team most games
It’s a shame. Perhaps something will change. I will post tomorrow what I found about Cup winners since the lock out
Also, very happy that they won!
Rocket Leon!
It would be interesting to see cup winners and home ice advantage in the modern era.
Does the team with home ice win 50% of the time? 60? 70?
Have only seen the 3rd, but man was the D coverage sloppy for the first half of that period and no sign of a backtrack from any forward. Ducks don’t look like the team on the B2B
D backing into row 3 and forwards MIA. Getting worked all over the ice this period
Looked like Skinner whiffed on that one.
A ton of traffic- don’t think he saw it
There was a screen there but I think it’s expected most goalies should work around a screen that high on a wrister from the point
Agreed. There’s no way the first two Ducks goals should have beat Skinner. Weak goals. As a Vikings fan, Skinner reminds me of Kirk Cousins. Decent stats but crucial errors at key points of games that swing momentum away from us.
Oilers dominated the 2nd period.
A high risk grenade by Brown has made this a game but the Oilers should be able to re-extend the lead and close this out by getting back to what they did all 2nd period long.
Philp tips the Corcoran shot to give the Condors the 2-1 lead.
Play started by a great rush up the right side through the neutral zone for zone entry by Philp. He finished it 15 seconds later.
That goal was on Drai not on Bouch
Sorry Drai! Correction- Connor Brown. Guaranteed between periods discussion is more care at the offensive blue line!
Bad pass by Connor Brown that Bouch can’t handle – changes the game.
I thought it was a Drai pass?
All things considered, there’s no way that puck should get by Skinner. He has to make those saves.
Great defensive play/stick by Nurse there – wow!
Absolutely wild pressure by the Oilers – wild stuff in the Ducks o-zone.
Just when it looked like Ducks were out of gas they score…..
Oh Cory how did you not score there?????
Great rush defence by the Condors causes a two on one the other way and a perfect pass from Philp to Griffith for the 1-0 lead.
All the respect in the world for Ryan but would really like to see Philip get a shot with the big team. Have to wonder what the plan is for him???
Helllloooooooo Nurse!
Great pass by Skinner and fantastic snipe by Nurse.
Big extending the lead goal.
Need to extend this lead.
Great communication by Bouch and Ek on that rush defence.
McDavid and then Drai (twice) with some potentially dangerious o-zone/o-zone blueline turnovers.
3 in a minutes’ span,
Summarizing!
O’Reilly and Clattenburg each had 1+1 in lopsided wins, the former with a team-high 5 SOG.
Nicholl picked up an assist.
Day had a quiet night in net, facing only ten shots and stopping all but one for the W.
Berry did not acquire soup.
Stonehouse did not dress.
Fairly low event period but the PPG makes it a good one.
Kudos to the bottom 2 lines who had some very good shifts and created the PP and PPG.
NUGE!!!!
Great defence there by McDavid after a poor pass by Bouch!
Lacomb with a nice deflection for an own goal! Atta boy Nuge!
NUGE!!!
Great pass by Nuge for the PPG – check that, off the Duck stick an in.
4th line draws the PP – major contributor to the goal – 2 great shifts by the 4th line.
If the Oil can figure how to get all 4 lines rolling and better distribute the ice time, it will make a huge difference for keeping Davo and Drai healthy and fresh through playoffs. Hope this is what KK is trying to sort out with all the shuffling. How is your wife doing OP?
Another good kill.
Pretty rare to see 97 + 29 in the box together???
Pretty weak call go give a 4 on 3.
McDavid sees his buddy in the box and needs to join I guess.
Excellent o-zone cycle shift with a couple pucks to the net by the make-shift 3rd line without a center.
Followed up by and o-zone 4th line shit.
Jarventie still hasn’t skated yet.
Its NOT the surgically repaired knee (but, recall, he has had issues with the other knee as well).
Podz looks faster upon return…..
Lets hope there is no fracture/break on that foot/ankle for Podz – sigh.
Back on bench.
McDavid has top speed going early but not the “shooting mentality”.
Since this thread has become a bit of a Leon for MVP thread I think it’s important to note that we most certainly suffer from observational bias. We don’t get to watch MacKinnon or Kaprizov or Kucherov as closely as we do our guys so we just assume they can’t be as good because our guys are so much better than the rest of our team.
I was in Tampa for the game against the Rangers and I came out of there blown away by Kucherov. He’s a wholly unique player. So, so subtle and deft. I think he has better vision than either 29 or 97. The puck is on his stick and off again in split seconds. Every touch is remarkable. He’s very Messi-like in that regard. He made one play where he got a pass in the high slot and felt the pressure from the back and when the defender lunged he jumped backwards, the exact opposite direction every person in the arena thought he would go.
Then you hear Halls interview on Chiclets maybe where he says Kaprizov plays perfect hockey. If you watch his game he never once makes a bad play.
Dint get me wrong, I think 97 is the best player on the planet but that group that includes Leon, Kaprizov, Nate, Makar and Kucherov are all exceptional.
Off the draw, Clattenburg powers his way to the net and deposits a backhand five-hole for his 13th goal.
A nifty play by O’Reilly as he breaks in on a 2-on-1, sells the shot then sends a pass across for a tap-in.
He has since added his 16th goal of the year.
It’s not even halfway through the game and it’s already 8-0 London. Nicholl is one of just four skaters without a point yet.
One of my all time favorites…Norah Jones beautifully honored Chris Cornell with this cover shortly after his passing.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DXbQ08Ixczvo&ved=2ahUKEwjqovSg7dqKAxWPSTABHR7bFsMQ78AJegQIGxAB&sqi=2&usg=AOvVaw0Utpsm2q5PVj0E1kd9EQ8L
Excellent performance, super emotional tribute. I really like Norah Jones’ voice.
In a similar vein, I loved this video that Chris’ widow authorized for his amazing cover of this GNR standard: https://youtu.be/myZ32Pf-5PE?si=RiU9sJIqYVzqJRs_
Incidentally Axl was an early champion of Chris long before Soundgarden broke big. The first time I heard Soundgarden was over the PA in Rexall waiting for Guns to take the stage on the Use Your Illusion tour. GnR were 45 mins late taking the stage (true to their reputation) and Edmonton’s rock fans did the wave for about 10 mins straight.
Great concert and great memories
Brown returns from illness for the Condors but Wanner remains out.
Forwards the same but Hamblin back in and he’ll take Gubbe’s spots as 3C with Petrov and Wright and Grubbe will center DeJong and Berglund.
ah Norah Jones
saw her this year in Houston this year; last stop of her tour
she’s an alchemist. Can turn a song to gold
her new Album is fantastic.
Go Oilers Go.
One thing that is notable in Drai’s 5 on 5 production, as compared to MacKinnon, is quality of teamate.
Drai:
302 minutes with Podz (306 without)
289 minutes with Bouch
260 minutes with Ek
223 minutes with Kulak
215 minutes with Nurse
192 minutes with Arvidsson
189 minutes with McDavid
MacKinnon:
480 minutes with Rantanen (189 without)
447 minutes with Makar
376 with Lehkonen
375 with Toew
200 with Girard
WOW
I think some blame for Canada’s performances goes to Ticketmaster and those that support it including, I assume, Hockey Canada. I didn’t follow Ottawa prices but here in Halifax tickets were going for thousands. When you are dropping mortgage payments to see an event (like Taylor Swift) you have every right to demand an incredible show and there’s no way these kids can live up to it. So they crumble and then get destroyed on social media by those who forked over the money.
Bring the events back to medium sized towns away from Ticketmaster and the whole temperature will drop.
For me I’ve always looked at Leon as a mixture of Frank Mahovlich-Peter Stastny-Alexandra Yakushev. I think Leon most resembles Stastny who lost a few of his prime years due to the Cold War. The Nordiques were a fun team to watch only second to the Oilers.
Interesting comp.
Best modern comparison I’ve seen is a hybrid of Peter Forsberg and Joe Thornton.
Forsberg for me too.
The Avs are my second team. Joe Sakic is my all time favourite player. I watched a ton of Forsberg. Drai has a very similar game. Biggest upside of Drai? He is infinitely more durable.
Don’t see it. Forsberg liked to pass the puck or pass it into the net sort of like Mcdavid likes to do. Drai likes to one time it home
Tough to identify a perfect comp for Leon because he truly is a unicorn. Very mobile big man with a sniper’s touch in close and considered the best passer in the league (by his peers). Leon is that ultra rare 5 tool Ken Griffey Jr player.
Visually, Thornton and Forsberg present as good comps. Both big playmakers and superior passers. But their career shooting % was 14 and 14.7 respectively and neither threatened the 50 goal mark. Leon’s career shooting % is an incredible 18.5 and 3 times (and counting) he’s topped 50.
As a scorer, a surprisingly good comp is Cam Neely. Career shooting % of 18.4 with three 50 goal seasons. Like Leon, you simply couldn’t get the puck off him when Neely had it against the boards. Could cycle til the cows came home.
If I had to pick a comp that resembles Leon’s dominance as both a shooter and playmaker, it would be another Bruin, Phil Esposito.
Like Leon, Espo was a lethal sniper in close. Even 3 years from retirement as a Ranger, he pots 42 with a shooting % of 19.5. Phil also made marginal wingers much better with his playmaking and cycle dominance. When he was paired with elite Ws like the 72 Summit Series, he was the best player in the world.
The brash Esposito was nothing like the quiet Draisaitl off the ice, but on the ice, they were/are two Clydesdales who could do it all.
Here’s a good Espo video: https://youtu.be/NWV7PlS2t_I?si=Smh8ZjZLkygzvydD
Btw Espo was also notorious for his lengthy shifts, a trait that Leon has also demonstrated (potentially to his detriment).
Phil Esposito was my first thought.
Stastny WAS a great and hugely underrated player. Kind of gets overlooked because of the number of dominant C’s in the 80s. Gretz. Mario. Hawerchuk. Trottier. Yzerman. etc.
Funny, I remember him as a bigger C then. Shows how much times change. 6’1″ 200lbs is not a big player by today’s standards.
Statsny lost 4 prime years due to politics he probably ends up top 8-9 all-time. Players were smaller in the Eighties but Leon sure looks like Peter when he gets rumbling.
It’s unbelievable if Connor and Leon continue with a top 5 PP add in OT over the next 9 years these two will end up top 10 all time that’ll make 4 Oilers plus a defenceman who’s in the top 20 second only to Bourque. Edmonton Oiler Fans are Royalty. The nearest Flame will be out of the top 40. Suck on it crybaby Hrudey.
I know I’m projecting a great 2nd half of a career for Leon and it starts tonight with his 1st hat-trick of the season.
Assuming good health. Knocks on wood.
A good trivia question that most people get wrong. Who was the 2nd top point getter in the 80’s decade?
1 Gretz. 1837 points
2 STASTNY. 986 points
3 Dionne. 980 points
4 Kurri. 950 points
Stastny was one helluva player!
Nords were an offensive juggernaut in the 80s. The Stastnys. Cloutier. Goulet. Sakic.
Miss that franchise. Those Habs v Nords playoff tilts were bloodsport. Second only to the BoA.
Some great rivalries Blues-Hawks, Rangers-Islanders,Pens-Flyers and one that never gets mentioned were the Whalers-Bruins I think they met 3 years in a row in the playoffs absolutely brutal intensity.
Pretty to easy to build up the hatred when Dmen could tattoo you with a crosscheck in the spine 5 times a game!
I’ll be looking for:
With the Ducks playing last night and having to travel from Winnipeg, Oilers need to take advantage of this “scheduling advantage” tonight- they shouldn’t need to but its another factor.
Opposite tomorrow as they travel and play on the road tomorrow night – travel is just as far (both Seattle and Winnipeg are 2 hour flight apparently) – I presume immigration is streamlined for these guys.
Hitting & “success”
In today’s Athletic you talk about Sabres’ Jokiharju as a possible Sather-style acquisition. You mention he may be fading because Sabres’ coach wants more physicality. A perfect fit for the Oilers, a team where physicality is not a requirement for success?
Much is made about “hitting” as the path to success. Too much, I think. I’m not seeing the connection, though I get the thrill we as fans get from seeing “the enemy” solidly crunched.
Two dynasties: 70s Habs, 80s Oilers. They were not known for “hitting” or physicality. Others were (80s Islanders).
I see Knoblauch coaching a skill team, not a “hitting” team (they’re not mutually exclusive, but neither are they dependent on each other). Your view? And especially viz Jokiharju?
And, is Bowman the Younger of similar view viz “hitting” /success?
The 80s Oilers not known for physicality?
Okay, then.
I’m out on a limb here. I did not pay attention to them at the time. Certainly they had players who dominated physically (ie Messier, among others). But at least two of the shining lights, as I understand it, were skill players, not physical players. I’m thinking of Gretzky, Coffee. Correct me if I’m wrong.
I’m curious about where the 80s Oilers ranked with others in terms of “hits.”
Coffey had the most Gordie Howe hat tricks on the team during the dynasty era, and he was shipped out early. So, safe to say, he was more than just a skill player.
Messier, Anderson, Linseman, McClelland, Hunter, Hughes, Lumley, Semenko, Brown, McSorley, Fogolin, Jackson, Gregg, Beukeboom, Smith, Lowe off the top of my head were above average physical players