Oilers at Bruins, G40 2024-25

It is impossible for me to anticipate a game between these two teams without reminiscing heavily. It helps that so many players and people have been involved with both teams. Glen Sather was a young winger in the system when he played with most of the future Bruins who would win Stanley in 1970 and 1972 with the Oklahoma City Blazers of the CPHL in the mid-60’s. It never ends. Garnet Bailey played for both teams, trades for Billy Ranford (Andy Moog) and Mike Krushelnyski (Ken Linseman) highlighted the golden years. So, it is no surprise that I’m going to ramble a little in today’s tee-up to the game.

Extreme strength at centre, constant shift on right wing and the beginnings of change in the Stan Bowman era are all in evidence on the current 50-man. Here’s a look for The Athletic.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

• At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
• January result: 2-0-0
• Oilers in 2024-25: 24-12-3, 51 points in 39 games

Edmonton is off to a strong start in January, and are 24-9-3 since the 0-3-0 start. In the last 10, the Oilers are 7-2-1 and Boston is 4-4-2. The Bruins don’t look like the Bruins this season, although they can bring back the Bergeron era once in a very blue moon. Boston is -20 in goals (all strengths) this season, Edmonton +19. Boston was +42 in 2023-24, the Oilers +56. The gap is widening.

BROWN-MCDAVID

It appears Kris Knoblauch is a bit of a math nerd. He pays attention to hot streaks. Connor Brown was elevated to the top line recently, and his 4.89 points-60 over the past 10 games must have been partial impetus. In those 10 games, McDavid-Brown are scoring 4.81 goals-60 and have a 60 percent goal share.

UNDER SUPPRESSION

Leon Draisaitl is having a tremendous season. At five-on-five, he owns a 67 percent goal share that includes a 1.33 GA-60 on the year. The Knoblauch plan is having an impact on the twin towers, and goal suppression both ways is happening. Here’s a year-over-year look at how things are going:

• Draisaitl 2023-24: 3.63 goals-60; 61 percent goal share
• Draisaitl 2024-25: 2.65 goals-60; 67 percent goal share

Fewer goals in both directions but an improved goal share overall at five-on-five for the big man in 2024-25.

• Draisaitl-McDavid 2023-24: 4.89 goals-60; 64 percent goal share
• Draisiatl-McDavid 2024-25: 5.07 goals-60; 71 percent goal share

Increases in both areas, as the Glimmer Twins keep pushing the envelope for greatness when together. Interesting that the math people rain down blows on the idea and ultimate math nerd Knoblauch runs it to a 70 bleeding percent advantage. Hilarity at the trailer park, rage at the Texas Instruments. I like the idea of Knoblauch as a Trailer Park Boy. Maybe they can repurpose the show, all you need is a trailer and 10,000 shopping carts.

• Draisaitl w/o 97 2023-24: 2.89 goals-60; 58 percent goal share
• Draisaitl w/o 97 2024-25: 2.31 goals-60; 59 percent goal share

Leon is scoring less than a year ago without McDavid, but the goal share isn’t suffering and the goal share is fire on the mountain.

• McDavid w/o 29 2023-24: 4.07 goals-60; 59 percent goal share
• McDavid w/o 29 2024-25: 3.04 goals-60; 49 percent
• McDavid with Brown 2024-25: 2.93 goals-60; 60 percent

This is probably why Math Knoblauch has moved Hyman off the line. McDavid without Draisaitl is average compared to the NHL. Small sample, and I expect Hyman to be back on the top unit soon, but I suspect the goal share is at least part of the reason. Knoblauch obeys the math. Huh.