Oilers at Penguins, G41 2024-25

Tonight, the Edmonton Oilers reach the halfway point of the NHL season. The opponent? The Pittsburgh Penguins. Fans of the Penguins are watching over one of the greatest teams of this century as it ages out. It’s eerily similar to the Boston Bruins, Edmonton’s last opponent. Time waits for no one. Penguins fans can be happy and satified, secure in the knowledge the Crosby-Malkin Penguins are written in the history books in bold and underlined. This is the destiny the current Oilers pursue tonight in Pennsylvania.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

• At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
• At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
• January result: 3-0-0
• Oilers in 2024-25: 25-12-3, 53 points in 40 games

This is the period in January that is probably going to be a grind for the Oilers. Tuesday in Boston, Thursday in Pittsburgh (the two cities are 900 kilometres from each other by car, but that’s a quick flight) and then Chicago on the weekend (Pittsburgh to Chicago is 750 kilometres away). After that? Home to Los Angeles, then road trip to Minneapolis and Denver. They’ll be stone tired by mid-January.

Podkolzin!

A post from HP36 in yesterday’s comment section connected Vasily Podkolzin’s work with Leon Draisaitl to Jaroslav Pouzar’s play with Wayne Gretzky in the days of yore. It’s a valid comp, and recalls an all-time favourite for the old timers in our group. I loved Pouzar so much. Wrote this in my book:

“He was listed at 6.0, 200 but he hit like a freight train and had more skill than one would expect from such a physical player. He was smart and defensively responsible, and often played on a line with Gretzky and Kurri in his time with Edmonton. Pouzar was not fast, and drew the ire of fans at times, but contributed to the 1984, 1985 and 1987 Stanley Cups, providing a unique and valuable skill set. He would play in just 186 NHL games, but made the most of them.”

Podkolzin is a complementary offensive player, but I do think he is taking unnecessary criticism in regard to his offense. His boxcars (4-10-14 in 40 games) don’t sing, but that’s not really a level playing field. If you look at the boxcars, Zach Hyman (13-10-23 in 35 games) looks far more capable offensively, and fair that because he is more talented. However, things like power-play points and ice time impact those numbers.

I get incredible resistance in the comments section from time to time about using five-on-five points per 60, but for me it’s a level playing field and reflects everything but linemates (and we’re smart enough to know that Hyman and Podkolzin are mostly playing with elite centers). So, without trying to enrage folks who don’t like the metric, allow me to defend Podkolzin’s offense by listing the Oilers forwards pts-60 at five-on-five along with their rank among the NHL’s top 384 forwards (32 times 12) based on five-on-five ice time:

• First Line (1-96)
• No. 17 Connor McDavid 2.67
• No. 19 Leon Draisaitl 2.64
• No. 67 Connor Brown 2.14
• Second Line (97-192)
• No. 154 Zach Hyman 1.73
• No. 160 Vasily Podkolzin 1.71
• No. 160 Jeff Skinner 1.71
• Third Line (193-288)
• No. 194 (DNQ) Kasperi Kapanen 1.59
• No. 220 Mattias Janmark 1.45
• No. 224 Viktor Arvidsson 1.44
• No. 279 Corey Perry 1.23
• Fourth Line (289-384)
• No. 294 Adam Henrique 1.13
• No. 315 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.04
• No. 315 Derek Ryan 1.04

This isn’t to suggest the boxcars have no value, but when we say Vasily Podkolzin isn’t productive on the Draisaitl line, the boxcars don’t help us. Podkolzin isn’t driving the offense on the line but he is contributing. He isn’t pushing Draisaitl to greater heights (Draisaitl has a higher goal share five-on-five without Podkolzin, 67 percent to 62 percent), but is a useful piece. Draisaitl-Podkolzin score 59 percent of the goals when together sans Connor McDavid, Draisaitl without the captain and Podkolzin is at 57 percent.

If you factor in luck, you could say Podkolzin is a neutral player. I would suggest that, considering cap hit and the fact it gives coach Kris Knoblauch a chance to spread the offense around, Podkolzin is a valuable player. His scoring and outscoring are appropriate to the role. Boxcars do not tell the entire story in this case.

A busy day on the Lowdown, we’ll hammer tonight’s preview and more beginning at noon on Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will be our featured guest, and I’ll dig deep on Toronto Blue Jays rumors (there are some!) as we begin to wake up to baseball spring training (I know, I know, but this is the first pitchers and catchers anticipation I’ve had in decades!) for 2025. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.