Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is not scoring at five-on-five this season. He is one of my all-time favourite players, on any team, and his sublime pass to Connor McDavid earlier in the week is securely embedded in my brain forever.
At five-on-five, points-60 by month: 0.83 in 11 October games; 1.03 in 13 November games; 1.12 in a dozen December games; 0.89 in five January games. In 329 minutes with Connor McDavid, Nuge is at 1.46 points-60. That isn’t a fab total. Away from the captain, RNH owns a 0.27 points-60 in 220 minutes. I think we need to talk.
The Athletic article is a report card for the first half. Mostly sunshine and rainbows but some clouds on the horizon.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
- January result: 4-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 26-13-3, 55 points in 42 games
The Oilers exceeded my predicted won-loss on the road trip and that’s a good arrow. The game tomorrow night against the Los Angeles Kings will be absolute murder for the home team. They fly in after a long road trip, play a game, and then head right back out. Brutal schedule. I have that Kings game as a victory due to the frustrating loss to the Widings out on the coast a few weeks ago. I understand if you don’t share my opinion. Big game. BIG game.
THE NUMBERS
Calvin Pickard was early poor by his own estimation last night but recovered and earned a good grade after a late ‘Hawks barrage. We used to be able to talk about goalers reasonably, but it seems the SC final loss a year ago snapped the patience on all GA. ALL goals allowed by Edmonton goalies need to be peer reviewed with the firing squad as a possible option. You might chortle at that sentence, but I read hundreds of fan opinions a week and this fan base probably sets 1990’s Dom Hasek ablaze.
I think it’s probably a reflection of two things: The Stanley is so close, and yet goals-against keep thwarting the Oilers. I mean, you can’t really engage in conversation about Game 7 one year ago, a game in which the Oilers skaters scored just one goal but have never been called on it. It’s all goalie rage, all the time.
Against that backdrop, I think it will be lost that Pickard called himself out, took the blame but didn’t beat himself up over it. He will have another day, and then another, to impact this team’s Stanley attempt spring 2025. I appreciate Calvin Pickard.
I expressed real concern about Nuge above, and will tell you that it is my opinion he is not going to be playing on the McDavid line for much longer. Why?
McDavid’s with or without you scoring and outscoring numbers at five-on-five 2024-25:
- McDavid without Nuge: 2.84 pts-60; 39, 4-12-16 in 338:12 (.41 pts-game)
- McDavid with Nuge: 2.55 pts-60; 38, 5-9-14 in 329:07 (.37 pts-game)
- McDavid overall: 2.7 pts-60; 39, 9-21-30 in 667:19 (.77 pts-game)
McDavid with Nuge at five-on-five is outscoring at a 55 percent pace, 58 percent expected goals. McDavid w/o Nuge at five-on-five is outscoring at the same 55 percent numbers, but with a 63 percent expected goal share. Nuge without McDavid, in 219 minutes, is 40 percent goals and 41 percent expected goals. McDavid doesn’t fall off at all, Nuge as a scorer and outscorer is not moving the needle anymore.
This isn’t a hit piece, this is me worrying about a player who is not doing the things he’s always been able to do. This week, at The Athletic, I’m going to write a Nuge article that resembles this one I wrote about Milan Lucic seven years ago. It’s going to be a difficult article to write, but we should be talking about it. I’m worried about the Nuge.
I think Kris Knoblauch’s play here is a low event third line for RNH.
New for The Athletic: Colin Chaulk has the forward prospects spiking and Oilers fans should take note.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6054176/2025/01/12/oilers-ahl-forwards-stats-2025/
Hey LT how come when I search for you on Athletic authors youre not listed
Try Lowetide.
He should play Petrov more
I believe he will, but agree.
I wonder if the wowy stats are Horcoffing Nuge a little..
Remember when Hemsky’s numbers looked way better away from Horcoff, but it was nearly all driven by Horcoff’s time away from Hemsky being the toughest minutes there were and Hemsky’s time away from Horcoff being the easiest minutes.
How much of Nuge’s time with McDavid is against harder competition than when McDavid is given an extra shift with the fourth line against the dregs?
If I was in charge of finding wingers for McDavid I’d be looking for guys who can cause turn overs and do the grinding for him and let him be the finisher. Arvidsson is a good example of being able to cause some chaos but still be able to make plays at a high level.
Back when Nuge was being called datsyuk-lite he could be that guy, but he hasn’t been datsyuk-lite in a while.
(Hopefully Savoie can be that guy eventually.)
I wonder if there is anything to a line like Nuge-Drai-Podz
One thing I know about NHL HCs is they want their 3C to be able to win key draws late in the game. RNH’s career FO% is a weak 44.7.
That is simply not a guy you’re going to put on the dot when you’re protecting a lead. It’s the single biggest reason that Nuge lives on the W now imo.
The only way I see Knoblauch considering RNH at 3C is with Henrique on his W so he can take defensive zone draws, which obviously defeats the intent of the entire enterprise.
RNH is too good to limit his mins centering the 4th line so for me, a top 6 W remains his most likely deployment.
https://x.com/jfreshhockey/status/1878486205681058028?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
as someone listed below. Oilers goaltending is well, not the worst but definitely our biggest problem
Nuge’s numbers spotlight the plight of the complimentary player. When the play is primarily driven by your linemate(s), changes in that dynamic unduly influence your crooked numbers.
McDavid and Hyman dominating the opposition on that line last year opened up a ton of ice for Nuge. That is where he thrives, playing give and go and flowing to the open ice for good looks.
RNH is not at the age yet where he should be falling off the performance cliff and I’m not seeing significant skill diminishment. His edgework alone should allow Nuge’s game to age well.
This is a chemistry issue imo. Every season can’t be Sticky Fingers. Sometimes you get a Dirty Work.
This isn’t a finished product by a long shot. They’re working out some kinks and Knoblauch is testing some combinations. The Oil have to build a 3rd line that can threaten the soft parade in the playoffs and I believe that’s the focus atm. The fact they’re still accruing points while experimenting with the roster should be encouraging for Oiler fans.
Nuge McD Hyman are out scoring opponents at 55%+ clip this year. The line is a non-issue.
I agree. We’re victims of our own success now, looking for problems to fret over.
Podz-McDavid-Arvidsson
Nuge-Leon-Hyman
Could be something as simple as that.
There is obviously something off with Nuge, with a very good chance he’s nursing an undisclosed injury. Too long now to be under the weather.
3C with some speedy wingers isn’t the worst result for the team, or RNH, while he recovers to form.
The question being, does that push Henrique to 4C with Ryan waived, or does Henrique stay on the third line with Janmark drawing 4C duty?
I recall at the time RNH signed his current contract, lots of discussion that he would be value for the contract because he could move to the all important 3C position when he got a little older and still help the team. I think, we are at that time now. Nuge can still play both special teams well which also helps maintain his value. I would move Henrique to the wing, either on that third line, or the top six. He is too valuable to only get fourth line minutes imo.
Call up Philp to play 4C
Yeah I tend to agree with that. Except it would seem Philp isn’t crushing it in the AHL so not sure if he’s a bonafide 4C in the NHL, especially down the stretch and into the playoffs. Be interesting to see what they do for deadline acquisitions.
As it sits currently, I’d probably run Nuge at 3C and Henrique at 4C for a stretch. See if we can get a 3L to rope-a-dope the opposition’s first or second line, and get some clear air for Connor or Leon’s line to wreak havoc.
There was some talk of claiming Ty Smith – he cleared.
Canucks have put Brannstom on waivers
Upgrade on Stecher, at least, no?
We have enough undersize Dmen. Need someone bigger and more physical that can move the puck.
Like all McDavid wingers except Drai, they start to “give him the puck” and then try and get open.
Not only is McDavid transporting the puck more, he is also cycling more, and working the corners at both ends of the ice.
It’s very fatiguing. Not only that but brings with it a lot of slashes and hits. Also fatiguing.
In my opinion, this is why McDavid needs physical puck hounds to help him out. Confident players. Nuge and Human are confident, but still defer too much at times.
Where they are lacking is in physicality. It’s not about deterrent or punishment. It’s about engaging the other team so they don’t have the time and comfort level to be punishing McDavid.
The biggest lesson of the playoffs to date, is we need a healthy McDavid.
Draisaitl is actually the best at giving McDavid the puck.
I think the issue you see with Nuge is Hyman driven.
McDavid needs someone to work corners and net front. Hyman.
McDavid needs a give and go player who can shoot, who will cover defence, particularly if they are first forward back into d zone. Nuge
With Hyman being off this season, it has had a substantial effect on Nuge 5×5 points.
We know the Oilers have mostly shaken off their Game 7 hangover, but this could perhaps apply differently to 97. Undoubtedly he wore that loss hard. Personally failing to deliver in games 6 and 7 must eat at him, he hasn’t been peak McDavid since the Dallas Series. His speed is there but his execution and play selection has been suspect. To me this is a player still working through some confidence issues, perhaps for the first time in a long time or ever. He’s got his ride or die in 29 picking up the slack, these are amazing teammates. But McDavid needs a moment, and event, a singular game — some watershed thing that allows him to move on. Maybe 4 Nations allows him to reset and return and ready to go for the stretch drive. I’m not worried, he’s just in a funk.
The long play for Nuge ought to be 3C. We kept him forever, and I would have no problem with him anchoring a mature shut down third line that can outscore, if just, for the next 4 years or so. Wouldn’t be a bad thing to slot him there starting now.
A goal on the Drai line and a great assist on Henrique line (and a couple big defensive plays) – GREAT game for Podz last night.
Bouch with only 4 shots on net on 7 attempts yesterday after 10 shots on net and NINETEEN attempts against PIT.
Last night I felt like Bouch as their top d-man. Very solid defensively including a couple big plays but I thought he was dynamic with the puck breaking out and in the neutral zone – he was driving offence last night without any defensive issues.
I think a heater may be coming.
He’s sneaky good at driving straight up the middle like he did against Ottawa and I thought McDavid should of hit him with the pass earlier that still amazingly ended up with him being in tight all alone last night. Bouchard has been super snakebit he could easily have twice as many goals. I always said he would hit the 20 mark but I do think he’s going to score 25 plus on possibly more than 1 occasion. Sign the man for 8 years followed by McDavid Mr.Bowman.
He did assassinate fewer shinpads yesterday.
Kulak had a very poor first period and that is coming off his worst game of the year in PIT.
I started to wonder if the minutes are catching up with him.
He’s averaging over 20 min per game this season (and its 21 minutes per game over the last 25). Prior to this year he’d never been higher than 17:30 per game and usually around 17 per game.
Maybe its just a couple tough games, happens to all – he was their best player in Boston the game before and had a long string of plus games prior to the last two.
IF, and its an if, the minutes are catching up with Kuly then, yes, 2RD is back to primary (I’ve been of the mind-set that Pettersson looks like the most reasonable add).
I was wondering if he was under the weather too. It seems a few players maybe
Kane-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Nuge-Henrique-Savoie
Skinner-Philp-Janmark
Perry-Kapanen
Come playoffs?
Expecting Kane to be a productive 1LW is unrealistic for a player who will have missed the entire regular season.
The players in the top 12 were what I was wondering about.
Kane could swap with Henrique (with RNH shifting to center) if he’s limited. But I sincerely hope it’s a Stone situation where he’s 100% with several weeks to spare before playoffs so he can get up to speed
Or they trade for a rental winger as insurance for Kane
I’m not sure Philp can help at all. We want him too, but without a tryout he’s completely unknown.
I don’t know that he’s fast enough or a banger for fourth line.
So for the moment, I’d ha be to have an NHLer in that fourth line spot.
He’s faster than Ryan, five inches taller, twenty pounds heavier and 11 years younger.
There’s no doubt he would help out more than Derek Ryan. Edmonton doesn’t need forward help with Kane, Savoie & Philp getting closer and closer. What they need is to focus on finding defensemen & a backup goaltender than can push Skinner.
While I don’t disagree with the idea of upgrading on Ryan, it is hardly fair to measure his contributions by speed, height, weight and age.
The AHL is loaded with dudes faster, taller, heavier and younger. That doesn’t mean they are more able to contribute to winning hockey games.
—-
Taller, heavier and younger bothers me as ways to evaluate the quality of hockey players. Forget the AHL and even the echl, any given beer league will have fellas who are taller, heavier and younger than Ryan.
Give me someone better at hockey.
Tough to see Connor Brown coming out at this point.
He is their best PK forward (in my opinion).
Nuge had 1 goal in the 1st 19 games, since then he has 10 in 22, 16pts total in his last 22 games which is a 60 point pace which would be a 7 points off of last season and typically around what he always puts up.
Don’t think there’s much to complain about if you’re able to eliminate the severely slow start to the season, things have seemed to turn around production wise.
Pickard himself took the blame for the 1st period goals last night, not going to lay it on the top line. Shots happen.
The difference is 5v5 versus power play points.
Nuge has never scored 60 points.
Given that Kane’s first game is now a ply-off game.
Should the Oiler’s got Podkolzin and Emberson AND matched Holloway and Broberg.
That line-up is $199,000 under the cap (no Kapanen or Ryan)
Holloway-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Henrique-Hopkins-Brown
Janmark-Ryan-Perry
Skinner
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Broberg
Kulak-Emberson
Strecher
Skinner
Pickard
was a doable line up with a Kane addition to the forward group???
Sure. But clearly the Oilers had no clue about Kane’s timeline otherwise they assuredly would have signed one or both of Broberg and Holloway.
Hmm Kane was injured in June, the SLB offer sheets came in August.
it seems they would have had enough time to understand all the options.
The early evidence is they selected wrong.
Kane having surgery was not confirmed until the start of training camp. They had to leave the possibility he would have been available and his contract would not be eligible for LTIR. At the time of the surgery in September, the expected timeline included the possibility he would be back playing as early as late February. Even now, Kane is not ruling out that he will play in the regular season. The Oilers hands have been and continue to b tied. They cannot risk committing his cap dollars to any contract that exceeds $1.125 million (ie can be fully buried in the minors) until they know for sure he is out till the end of the regular season.
In retrospect, Holloway would have been way better than Skinner.
Not even retrospectively.
At the time it was bizarre. Another cast off from another team, what’s up? Not a puck hound, not physical. Drai is the shooter, not the retriever.
Then the offer sheets.
We still needed physical puck retrievers, and we have Holloway. Sucked to have that offer sheets jammed up the wazoo, but he was worth it. Buried by the coach last year but always high motor, high energy player about to pop.
To me it seemed that while the Oilers group were using analytics to evaluate everyone else, they undervalued Holloway.
sorry, missed your post prior to posting
not even in retrospect for some
It’s still a doable lineup regardless.
I hope management is having these conversations.
I agree that Nuge is a problem. I also think we need to acknowledge that McDavid is not performing 5 on 5 to the same extent. His choices have been questionable, particularly passing up great scoring chances to make that extra pass to RNH or Hyman when they’ve run out of runway.
Draisaitl appears to be the only forward who is consistently finishing his chances. Hyman had a month and McDavid has shown flashes, but that is the biggest issue facing the team as a whole. They had a boat load of chances to crawl back into the Pens game despite their awful start, but no one was putting the puck in the net.
Jeff Skinner needs to be elevated, not benched. He’s a goal scorer and we need more of those, not less. Ryan hasn’t pissed a drop
Why is McDavid not shooting when’s the last time he wired one from not in close. Something is up the play is dying on his his stick way more than usual. He’s been taking a lot of punishment particularly the Seattle game.
All of McD’s number are quality except his minutes without Drai, RNH and Hyman.
He is also getting PDO’d.
I thought the same thing until looking at wowys. I think the first lines struggles are overblown and most of it still stems from the first 10ish games.
Shouldn’t he be able to elevate most to all wingers? Draisaitl is not gifted the best wingers and still shining like a diamond
He is. That is my point. Look at his wowys and goal share.
I’ve been frustrated w 97s play lately
he trying to deak everyone when shooting the puck is the better option
Nuge 3C / Henrique 4C
Have Centers may as well use them in the right spot.
This.
Wingers to surround a pack of centres like McDavid-Draisaitl-RNH-Henrique are far easier to find in terms of asset cost, including one who won’t cost us anything (Savoie) and we’ll probably get back another one just before the playoffs (Kane).
At wing, we already have: Hyman, Arvidsson, Brown, Janmark, Podkolzin, Kapanen, Skinner, Perry … that’s actually enough legit NHL wingers to populate 4 lines without even bringing Savoie or Kane into the equation.
Why does RNH need to play on McDavid’s wing, when he’s not pissing a drop at 5v5? Why turn Henrique into a winger, when we already have so many wingers?
I’d like to see:
Skinner-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Hyman
Kapanen-RNH-Perry
When Kane gets back he starts off on the 4th line in Kapanen’s spot. I’m leaving Hyman on the third line, because he’s been helping to drive offence in the bottom 6. And I’m giving Skinner a chance to show that he can be a top 6 forward, which he has not had all season long.
The third and forth lines are interchangeable – which ever line has it going on a given night will play get more playing time.
Again, RNH isn’t pissing a drop at 5v5 … it’s time for his minutes to be cut. He plays too much out on the periphery; maybe some time spent mucking it out with Perry on a bottom 6 line will get him to be more assertive in the offensive zone. He’ll still get lots of special teams ice time on the PK and PP.
LT, who are you playing at 1LW in this scenario?
Depends. Nuge might play center.
Hmmm, is RNH really a 2C or 3C at this stage in his career? I don’t think so, not on a SC calibre team.
And I certainly don’t see Henrique as a 1LW solution if that’s what you are slyly suggesting.
No, I’m suggesting 97, 29, 93 and Henrique up the middle, Nuge and Henrique mixing and matching on No. 3 wing at times.
Either way I don’t see a 1LW on this team not named RNH, maybe someone named Jeff figures his game out.
To me what would benefit Connor is a solid two way guy that can finish enough. Someone to watch the shop. The reason is that Connor and Hyman are off and on defensively. Nuge isn’t really that anymore, I’ve heard some media say his defensive game was not as good as commonly said. I see him as good but not rock solid these days. If all three are off they get scored on too much
Connor has also done well with a big disruptive winger like younger Maroon, that can finish and isn’t a defensive liability. Healthy Kane would do. The reason in that case being it creates space and draws attention away. Hyman is sort of like that, but isn’t mean. It’s the physical element and aggressiveness that creates the disruption, in your face, bothering goalies and D. If only Perry was 28, or Tom Wilson was available, or Kane up to speed
Kane may be more responsible defensively when back because he’ll be able to skate with no issues affecting it
The regular season is such a grind especially for 30 year old plus players this is why you need cheap youth for the dog days. All I care is if Nuge is prepared for the Playoffs get Savoie up here in the next month let him burn some energy and conserve some for the older players. Thank goodness Holland is gone and I can’t believe Jackson replenished the farm team as well as he has since he had very little to work with.
RNH is coming off two of his best seasons. Before that, in 20-21, his 5v5 scoring rate was 1.15.
RNH has always had somewhat up and down 5v5 rates. I am not panicking yet. Definitely a story to follow. As long as McD continues to outscore with RNH by an acceptable margin, I would leave RNH on the top line.
You may well be correct but I’m not following this logic at all.
Nuge falls off a cliff without McDavid, but McDavid’s results don’t suffer with Nuge (especially notable since most of the ‘without Nuge’ TOI is played with Draisaitl).
So… Nuge will be moved off the line?
This is also my thinking. Nuge has never been a high end producer at 5v5. His 5v5 numbers have always been driven by McD, Drai, or Taylor Hall. But he has been a very effective complementary player.
Nuge is scoring 1.46 points-60 with McDavid. He was over 2.00 points-60 in the two previous seasons. Oilers need to optimize the McDavid minutes.
Knoblauch is optimizing for goal suppression, deployment optionalitiy, and systems play, i.e. laying the foundation for the playoffs.
Year over year, 97-93 five-on-five:
2023-24: 4.06 goals-60; 2.6 GA-60; 61 pct goal share
2024-25: 3.28 goals-60; 2.73 GA-60; 55 pct goal share
Those statistics do not contradict my assertion. Knoblauch is not trying to maximize offense. And the POHO and GM did damage to the roster overall (but not so much that the OIlers cannot contend….all the contenders have issues), plus Kane is hurt.
Knoblauch was more all about the goals last year. The Oilers were chasing. He was light on the reins. He was learning. Knoblauch is pacing them this year, and being particular about the details and the systems.
In this process, the OIlers have still surrendered a lot of leads because lax systems play with the lead and individual mistakes, reflected in the GA relative to last year.
Also. No Ryan McLeod. Ryan McLeod was very good at goals against suppression for a 3rd line centre.
But the Oilers have decided to go with mid-to-late career 3rd line centres in the short and medium term future. In a contending window, it is very unlikely the spot will ever be entrusted to an emerging player. McLeod was the right age to assume the long term role, but the Oilers decided on the other route and to monetize McLeod.
But the numbers you showed do not suggest that removing Nuge is likely to lead to better results for McDavid.
Expected goal share jumps significantly. Do we just ignore this?
Well, actually the expected goals spike. I know some don’t believe in expected goals but I have the bible and everything.
They do, but that’s all McDavid-Draisaitl (and I don’t think you’re suggesting Drai should replace Nuge).
Removing Draisatil:
McDavid-Nuge xGF% is 57%
McDavid without Nuge xGF% is 56%
Anyway, we don’t need to belabor the point.
And he was 1.15 (with and without McD) the season before that.
While I can’t separate individual scoring using 3 players, we can see how the Oilers score this year.
5v5 GF/60
97 & 93, no 29 – 3.13/60 – 326 min
97, no 93 or 29 – 1.96/60 – 122 min
97 & 29, no 93 – 5.00/60 – 216 min
Its also notable to look at the goals against
5v5 GA/60.
97 & 93, no 29 – 2.76/60 – 326 min
97, no 93 or 29 -4.91/60 – 122 min
97 & 29, no 93 – 2.22/60 – 216 min
Big spike in GA.w/o 29 or 93. Tiny samples, but this coach seems to value Actual Goals quite a bit
Net GF-GA/60 5v5
97 & 93, no 29: +0.37/60 – 326 min
97, no 93 or 29: -2.95/60 – 122 min
97 & 29, no 93: +2.78/60 – 216 min
That may be why Nuge is still 1LW
I think 19 would do ok there too.
19-97-18 had a nice run the playoffs last year until 19 got hurt. Maybe 19 would increase the scoring?
Last year’s playoffs:
54 min
3.13 GF/60
2.22 GA/60
60%GF
60% xGF%
Might be worth test driving for a few games.
Also,
Sather threw rookie Tikannen on 99’s line in the playoffs, maybe Knoblauch should be talked into the same with Savoie?
…& some folks wonder why KK is reluctant to use Jinner on that line.
Not sure it will happen, but that would be fascinating from a pure what-if standpoint.
Are you referring to 84/85 when Tikkanen played 3 playoffs games out of 18, before ever playing a regular season game? Not much impact that year with no points and -1.
Or are you referring to 85/86 when he played 35 regular season games then got into 8 out of 10 playoff games and the Oilers got ousted by the Flames?
Only thing I don’t love about putting Henrique on L1 is that leaves Janmark to mind the store at 4C, and running RNH at 3C. Unless we’re hanging on to the vestiges of Derek Ryan’s ghost over Kapanen/Perry.
Agree actual GA is part of the reason Knoblauch has stuck with Nuge.
Also the lack of good alternatives, and the considerable history of Nuge-McDavid.
(and also that the line has been A-OK despite Nuge’s 5v5 scoring)
It requires some more analysis, but I’d maybe argue that these numbers are exactly why Nuge should be kept with McDavid. It’s analogous to comparative advantage and opportunity cost in economic terms. In other words, if the negative impact to Nuge (and his line) on an alternative line is larger than the negative impact to McDavid with Nuge, then overall outscoring as a team is optimal when Nuge plays with McDavid. That question of opportunity cost needs to be rooted out before looking at individual outscoring metrics in isolation.
Matt Savoie is real and he’s spectacular.
No rush but he is coming and giving him some games post Feb break and prior to the deadline may be a good idea.
This guy will excel with skilled players and he is VERY good defensively and also dogs picks out.
Maybe this could be like the boost Dallas achieved last season after bringing up Stankoven?
You’ve said he has a good chance of fitting in with Leon his quick give and goals would mesh kinda like Yamo’s did when he was first called up and the Nuge-Leon-Yamo was a fantastic line for a year. I like the sounds of a Pod-Leon-Savoie. How is Savoie defensive capabilities?
Yes, in my opinion, in the long term, Leon looks to be the sytlistic match for him but we’ll see what happens when he gets here and if they want to start him off on the 3rd line.
As I said in my post, his defensive game is very good, impressive for a rookie pro who turn 21 last month.
He has also been part of the Condors PK since game 1 – mostly in a depth roll but he’s starting to get more PK minutes.
I’m hoping the trade will result in a win-win for both clubs I could see Ruff liking McLeod speed on the PK but McLeod lack of physicality on 5 on 5 will test Ruff’s nerve. Besides the cap savings would you have still made this trade as you are the most knowledgeable Condor slash scout that I know of on social media and I greatly value you input on the farm team and more importantly the prospects.
Knights losing to an eastern bottom feeder at home for their second straight regulation loss and the Kings also losing in regulation to a team the Oilers are not really directly competing with for positioning – couple they with another Avs loss and it was a solid night.
I think Nuge has started to play some more committed hockey (battling in mid ice puck retrieval) and better generally recently but his continued 5 on 5 production cannot be denied.
Similar to Podz in the 2nd line but at least both players add more to their lines and the lineup than 5 on 5 individual scoring.
I’ll think Podz played mostly on the 3rd line last night so Drai does not “need him”. Perhaps swap Drai and Nuge as the top 2LW and see what happens?
Is this a typo cause I’m not following. Maybe I need more coffee.
Yes, I meant swapping Podz and Nuge as the top 2 left wingers.
Perhaps Podz can “help McDavid” and perhaps Drai can help Nuge (and they’ve had periods of great production together in the past).
As you said yesterday LT the only thing that matters in pro sports is winning. That involves some difficult decisions unfortunately
I’ve rarely not liked or appreciated Oiler players. But I prefer the team being the best it can be over keeping anyone but elite players because of sentimentality. I thought before this contract they should have traded Nuge because he wouldn’t stay at a high enough level into his 30’s, and he had value, which is why they did that deal to keep him. Wrong tack on that decision to me
Smaller players who aren’t high offense and aren’t fast will decline in top roles. Ryan has hung on with particular skills bottom 6 and taking a low cap hit, but his time has also come. Nuge’s contract is not as big a problem as the cap rises quickly as finding a way for him to contribute, but it does make it harder to find a better fit for Connor. This is the problem with overpayed or hard to move long term deals
I think Bowman has shown he’ll make tough decisions objectively, there’s hope in that moving forward. Long protected deals for anyone but elite players is a team weakening way to do business, as it almost always ends poorly
Even though he’s playing better this season I also would have traded Nurse, not because I don’t think he isn’t a good player, but because I didn’t want to pay him that much. You open the wallet for Connor Drai and Bouch, but no one else, they have to be at a cap hit that they can perform to. If the market is out of whack, you move on. Jones after watching him last night is also not able to play to his contract, mostly invisible
It’s also in the player’s best interest because big contracts that aren’t met is stressful for players. Rich Winter said this on the radio last week. I think it’s common sense. Hyman is holding on which is great, they never should have done all of he Nuge and Nurse with contracts like that in two consecutive years, and JJ shouldn’t have given trade protection to Skinner. There was risk JS wouldn’t work out and the stakes are as high as they get. If he didn’t like that move on
Clear Sight Analytics has limited player ratings the public can see. Why I include Bouch in elite is shown there. His contributions despite his lapses is league top. He’s a play driver, a scorer, and they are rare. The team needs more players that drive play at a higher level than many can right now, at the level they are used at
Janmark is at the bottom, but a team can use a player with his game and utility, and that he shines in playoffs, seems to like the big stage, but you can’t have many like that
Ceci was also bottom ranked. Nurse’s resurgence could be related to the D change ups. I’m glad the team is now fully invested in analytics, having enough scouts everywhere. And if Bowman and the rest can avoid big mistakes, and hamstringing themselves, we might see a very strong team for many years to come
I get the point, and for sure we’ve handed out too many full NMC. But when an isolated northern team says we’ll only open the wallet for obviously elite players, nobody else gets too much cap, nobody gets NMC, nobody gets too much term, you end up the Toronto Blue Jays.
Trading Nurse before his most recent contract may have been the right play. But who do you replace him with and what assets does that cost to acquire? In 2021, when he signed that contract, it was still being frequently reported that he was Connor’s best friend on the team. Trading Nuge before his most recent contract would have been wildly unpopular with the fan base.
I think it may be more nuanced than simply saying no bad contract for anyone. If the market is out of whack and you move on you’re left being “in on” all the big names, but no needle-moving signings – the Blue Jays model.
Comments clearly directed at McDrai often speculate that elite talent takes longer to erode, and that if you got boots like the Glimmers you can hope for a long productive career. Gretzky himself however has said that the hands are the very first thing to go, and that he himself was surprised by that.
Now when the Great One is talking “hands” he’s discussing degrees of decline down from the highest levels of human ability – increments of erosion we are unlikely even to perceive early on. But there’s a warning flag there, perhaps, for any NHL’er with a finesse game reliant on higher end skills. It may not be a question of road meets cliff, but at some point all those miles cost you your polish, your finish, some level of execution.
At his best the Nuge is a puck hawk in all zones, a threat to score, a witch on the power play. While I remain a member of the Nuge 4evr Club, I haven’t seen that guy much this season.
Yet.
The Great One led the league in assists in his 18th & 19th NHL seasons, ages 36 & 37. His hands may have eroded some, but they were still pretty special.
And yet, Bowman the Younger was the one responsible for acquiring and extending Jones to that astronomical boat anchor of a contract.
Here’s hoping he’s a guy who’s able to, ahem, learn from his previous mistakes.
Thanks goodness Nuge’s contract was signed after a down year and not right after his 100 point season.
Nattering nabobs of negativity about Nugent-Hopkins from nervous nellies.
Well the correct call would be to staple Skinner on that line. But do not see this coach doing that. He really hates Skinner’s game and it’s obvious with the press box assignment. So who?
Kappanen, possibly could get a look.
But no clue, this coach has used Brown up higher ( who by the way was terrible last night and has been for 3 games now).
He has used Janmark up higher. Who should never be on the top line.
Henrique?
Could Call up Savoie and give him a few cups of Coffee? Doubt they do.
Skinner is the guy who is actually a natural shooter. Try him out or trade him!!!!!!
On another note, it is time to take Derek Ryan out of the lineup for good. Tks for your great service to the team and the community but your time has come. The game has passed you over. The coach still plays him and he shouldn’t. It really is time to bring up Philp and see over the next month up to the 4 nations if he can handle the everyday grind on the 4th dot leading up to the trade deadline. If not they will need another C man . If he does great they can possibly grab a winger with grit and for sure that D man they desperately need as the #4.
I’m think Henrique might do very well with Connor. He’s smart, can finish and plays two says well. I’m not sure he could handle full time with the minutes, maybe in rotation. But they are short a centre to do that, and Nuge can stick at C anymore it seems
Given what I’ve been reading I’m not sure Philip is mentally ready for the rigours of the NHL which is too bad. Maybe he gets a look and plays like training camp
What readings are these….?
I don’t think you can say Skinner on the top line is the correct call without backing it up.
Read up a few posts to what Woodguy shared – 97’s GA w/out 29 & 93. Replacing 93 w/29 could potentially make it worse because Nuge is more responsible defensively.
I always appreciate your blogs and view points. True, Connor was held pointless in Games 6 and 7 when it mattered the most in his career. Fact of the matter this season, the Oilers pair of Skinner and Pickard and way below league average in Save %. Sub .900 doesn’t win unless the offense is cooking. I don’t think they can win a Cup with the current tandem. Why? We all saw what happens when the Oilers big guns get shut down. It’s a team sport and I can’t remember a Cup winner ever having a statistically average goalie. Maybe Chris Osgood way back when, but Detroit had an all star roster which isn’t viable in the Salary Cap era. L.A. has Kemper who has won a Cup and looks outstanding this year. Vegas has suberb defense and a good goalie in Adin Hill who’s won a Cup. I believe the Oilers need another top 4 dman and a game thief like Curtis Joseph or Dwane Roloson to have a shot this season. Maybe John Gibson? Colorado traded for Blackwood and he’s been outstanding. I’m going to the game on Thursday and don’t expect a great result from my Oilers. We’ll see.
I have a hard time buying the narrative that Skinner and Pickard were good enough to get the Oilers to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals but not enough to win it.
Are you saying it was impossible for them to win game 7 last year?
If the Campbell bet would of worked out we have 2 cups. I hate to say this but we win the Cup easy with the Goalie 3 hours south. We are at a 105 point pace with below average goaltending just think what we would be with a top 5-10 netminder. Oilers offensively suffer because they have to baby both Pickard and Skinner. I keep hearing you get what you paid for but how much is Calgary paying that homegrown kid that looks like the 2nd coming of Andy Moog.
“If your auntie had balls she’d be your uncle.”
— Elliotte Friedman on Oilers Now a few years ago.
League average = .901 (up a point today after a few shutouts & 2-1 games yesterday.
Skinner = .898
Pickard = .896
Your definition of “way below” = ???
i remember many summers reading this blog where folks suggest that all Oilers need is league average goaltending & they should win. But when the season starts, every goal against is a crime.
Speaking of way below average, look at the salary cap situation. Skinner ranks 42nd among NHL goalies in cap hit, & the current tandem ranks 29th of 32 teams. Given the limitations inherent in the Oilers compensating 12 skaters more than their top goalie, I put blaming the stoppers well down my personal list of grievances.
Is “league average” all that informative given the goaltenders playing for 16 of those teams are out of the playoffs?
If you look at contending teams, there is a different story.
For simplicity…just the starters.
WPG – Hellebuyck .928
VGK – Hill – .903
MIN – Gustavsson – .918
DAL – Oettinger – .910
LAK – Kuemper – .921
COL – Blackwood – .939
VCR – Lankinen – .906
EDM – Skinner – .898
It would seem average among WC contenders is significantly higher than .901.
As for cap hit…isn’t that mainly dependant on acquisition method, experience and age?
BLACKWOOD!!!
Yep, the a Oilers drafted & developed their goalie, I think Hellebuyck & Oettinger are the others of the guys you name.
Hellebuyck is getting paid, Oettinger (who Skinner outduelled in the playoffs) makes $4.0 this year & soars to more than double that (& more than triple Skinner) next.
Oilers have chosen to spend their resources elsewhere, including on their high end forwards which no other teams can match (Colorado comes closest). The theory being that Skinner delivers value well above his cap hit & will continue to do so in the future.
We also must take care not to assume .898 is the defining number of this player, who like many teammates had a shitty start in 2024-25 after last season’s long spring & short summer. Split Skinner’s 28 starts down the middle & we get:
first 14: 6-6-2, .876
last 14: 10-3-1, .919
He’s already wiped out his early deficits in Sv% & GSAx & is trending up, up, up. Comparing his full season to Mackenzie Blackwood’s 11 games in Colorado is folly.
Hellebucyk is 31 and on his 3rd contract
Oettinger is 26 and is about to start his 3rd contract.
Skinner is on his second contract and will cost considerably more soon while delivering sub par results.
Colorado is different in that they are spending $9 million on the arguably best defenceman in the league while Nurse is very far from that.
Nonetheless, they have already extended Blackwood for 3 more seasons at $5.25 million.
Gibson?
Surely you’re joking…
I think the question for Nuge is if hes entering the Kyle Turris years of his career or if he has a Matt Duchene like resurgence. Cheering for him!
I agree, it’s time for RNH to move down the line up. Keep him on pp1. The question becomes, who plays left wing with McDavid?
??? McD Hyman
Pod Drai Arvi
RNH Henrique Janmark
Kapanen Philp Brown
I think I’d give Kapanen another look up there. Move Hyman to LW and Kap on right. Also, It’s time to call up Savoie and Philp. Ryan and Perry have had great careers, but are no longer every day players. Perry can still be spot started, but Ryan looks finished.
Oh, and that GWG in game 7 was a softy. Still pissed about it! 😁
Perry has been very good. ??????
I think he’s been fine and obviously chipped in with some big goals. He struggles in the dzone and transition because he is soooo slow! He can still be effective if with the right line mates. Not Ryan.
Jeff Skinner.
Yes, I could get behind that. He was brought here because he is a proven goal scorer. Let’s see what he can do.
The answer to your ??? is Jeff Skinner.
Time to circle back to this idea for 5-10 games and see if it lights a fire under Skinner.
If he doesn’t step up then at least Stan Bowman has an answer as to what to do at the trade deadline.
I bet Stan already has an opinion about Jeff ,Stan has been around the game a long time and knows when a player is not up to the task which in this case is being able to play on a Stanley cup contender .
Agree that its time for the Ryan – Philp swap.
I really hope management doesn’t have real hesitation to waive Ryan (of course, talking to him first). They don’t have room to just add another player, it needs to be a swap.
Savoie is real and spectacular but that call-up is simply not needed yet (for the Oilers or for the player) – even without removing another player from the roster and there is nooone that should go at this point – not Corey Perry.
Another (odd) game that the X-Goals shine after a sluggish start. I do appreciate these numbers. I do realize we put the hammer down in the last 2 periods, also interesting to see how Draisaitl was used more on that make shift line compared to the top line.
Aside from trade, I don’t see many roster players worthy of playing with McDavid that can keep up, produce, and have the defensive acumen of the Nuge to back check. Henrique is too slow but it’s possible. Perhaps Podkolzin gets the push but that could damage the chemistry with Draisaitl. Is it Janmark’s turn again with a Nuge swap?
Wow, 7 years at the Athletic already… that went fast! Congrats for the quality articles there LT.
Thank you! I appreciate the kind words.
I second that emotion, appreciating what you’re writing at The Athletic, LT.
Otherwise, Podkolzin was involved in goals for on both lines he played on. This guy. We’re seeing something interesting happening.
And Draisaitl dominating. I liked both of his lines. I loved his d-zone presence.
I am watching a couple of other clubs. No one is applying the blender like Knoblauch . What a recipe for disruption and occasional magic!
Nuge definitely deserves a trip to the 3rd line or press box. He’s not helping Mcdavid who in my opinion is trying to do too much. you may disagree but I don’t remember the puck being poke checked off his stick this often.
but the way these guys are playing together we may be better off looking for a Pat maroon type and make an expensive but out scoring 3rd line
From 1LW / 1PP / 1PK to the pressbox is pretty drastic.
Press box? Come on, lets be reasonable.
Given his age and his production the last two seasons, I think there is a reasonable chance RNH is not 100% healthy. It could be an age cliff. But I agree. It’s a concern.
Nuge has never scored very well 5v5 away from McDrai. His remaining offence would evaporate on a third line.
I’m guessing he’s not 100% and for that matter I don’t think Connor is either. The top line has been struggling the past few games.
I agree Connor just seems to be staying away from the tough areas and is a 1/2 step slower at times .
Prospectoslovakia!
No, no Slovaks on the menu–just a couple good ol’ boys never meaning no harm. (Okay, maybe a little harm.)
Stonehouse plays Game the Third as a Pete, picking up his first point with them yestereve.
Berry and his Jacks of Lumber conclude a 3-in-3. His calling card has never been, nor ever will be about offense, but one would have hoped for better than the 1+1 he has in 30 GP this season.
Peterborough (Stonehouse) @ noon
Muskegon (Berry) @ 1 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Springbrook time.