Oilers at Avalanche, G45 2024-25

There is a chance for the Edmonton Oilers to ‘reach for the top’ of the Pacific Division tonight. A win places the team in a tie with Vegas Golden Knights, although the Veggies would have a game in hand. It’s an impressive stat, especially considering the 0-3-0 start to the campaign.

However, the Oilers flew a fairly long way after a tough game and play Mile High tonight in Denver against a very good team. Well played, Gary. Excellent nine stages of hell scheduling!!

The Athletic article today is about Stan Bowman’s first deadline and why reaching for higher ground is vital. Article is here.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

• At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
• At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
• January result: 6-1-0
• Oilers in 2024-25: 28-13-3, 59 points in 44 games

In the strongest possible language I can muster, these Oilers are both on a fantastic run and on the highway to the danger zone (danger zone). If they win tonight, build a statue. I think this could be a blowout and the Edmontons are a fine team. The degree of difficulty on tonight’s game is Spinal Tap’s 11.

THE NUMBERS

Calvin Pickard was exceptional last night and has delivered at a high level as the backup this season. I like to ‘play along at home’ with the coach (and manager), so last night’s decision to run Pickard against Minnesota was (imo) a sign of faith. Stuart Skinner getting Denver is textbook, but a coach who wanted one win out of the btb games might choose Skinner to start in Minnesota. At five-on-five, Pickard has a .912SP since October 15, Skinner .920. Edmonton’s goalies rank No. 10 (Skinner) and No. 24 (Pickard) among goalies with 700+ minutes played five-on-five since October 15.

Evan Bouchard had two giveaways, one was extremely dangerous, and his seven shots on goal did not land a goal. He did pick up an assist and was the owner of a nice five-on-five shot share (20-11). He is scoring 1.3 points-60 at five-on-five and has a 56 percent goal share (59 percent expected) in the discipline. He has scored 4.7 points-60 on the power play. His player-type has always been the least popular among Oilers fans going back to Paul Coffey, but Bouchard is a splendid player and outscorer. Remember, every time you say something nasty about Bouchard, you are telling the world you don’t think this is any damn good.

This isn’t his best season in some ways, but the player chart (via Puck IQ, bless all who sail her) screams quality.

Let me tell you a story. Buck Rodgers was the manager of the Montreal Expos years ago, and the club acquired a tall, rail thin centerfielder named Otis Nixon. Now, Nixon could absolutely fly, so his defense in spacious centerfield at Olympic Stadium kept him in the lineup even though he was (at times) a bit of an adventure.

Nixon had been a high pick, but bounced from the Yankees to the Indians (might be opposite, this was some time ago and I’m not looking it up because I’m tight for time it’s 8:18am) and eventually Montreal.

Nixon could beat any bunt, even if the infielders played in. He had serious speed. However, Otis usually popped up or hit line drives, and even the line drives were flaccid.

What did Rodgers do? He said we’re not going to worry about what Nixon doesn’t do well, we are going to push the things that work (bunts, grounders) and see if we can get him to hit enough to stay in the lineup. Nixon had a 17-year major league career because Rodgers looked past what he wasn’t, and found what he was had more than enough value to play.

That’s Bouchard. He makes mistakes that he shouldn’t make, his calm feet get him in trouble often enough that it’s a concern. However, it’s a concern you live with, and I think the errors will come less often as he matures. Evan Bouchard is an important part of the team. Honestly. Embrace the old guy!

Nuge scored!! Not only that, he did it at five-on-five and away from Connor McDavid. He has scored 10 five-on-five points this season (in 576 minutes), for a 1.04 points-60. Eight of those points have been scored when he is with Connor McDavid (in 345 minutes, 1.39 points-60).

Last night was his second five-on-five point all season away from the captain. Two points in 231 minutes. That was a big goal last night, and his line played very well. Will we see that trio again tonight?

The Lowdown hits at noon and we’ll be wall to wall Oilers. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will join us and we’ll hear from the Denver side, too. Declanations with Declan Krueger is all about NCAA football (go Notre Dame!) and maybe there’s some good Blue Jays news today. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.