There is a chance for the Edmonton Oilers to ‘reach for the top’ of the Pacific Division tonight. A win places the team in a tie with Vegas Golden Knights, although the Veggies would have a game in hand. It’s an impressive stat, especially considering the 0-3-0 start to the campaign.
However, the Oilers flew a fairly long way after a tough game and play Mile High tonight in Denver against a very good team. Well played, Gary. Excellent nine stages of hell scheduling!!
The Athletic article today is about Stan Bowman’s first deadline and why reaching for higher ground is vital. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
- January result: 6-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 28-13-3, 59 points in 44 games
In the strongest possible language I can muster, these Oilers are both on a fantastic run and on the highway to the danger zone (danger zone). If they win tonight, build a statue. I think this could be a blowout and the Edmontons are a fine team. The degree of difficulty on tonight’s game is Spinal Tap’s 11.
THE NUMBERS
Calvin Pickard was exceptional last night and has delivered at a high level as the backup this season. I like to ‘play along at home’ with the coach (and manager), so last night’s decision to run Pickard against Minnesota was (imo) a sign of faith. Stuart Skinner getting Denver is textbook, but a coach who wanted one win out of the btb games might choose Skinner to start in Minnesota. At five-on-five, Pickard has a .912SP since October 15, Skinner .920. Edmonton’s goalies rank No. 10 (Skinner) and No. 24 (Pickard) among goalies with 700+ minutes played five-on-five since October 15.
Evan Bouchard had two giveaways, one was extremely dangerous, and his seven shots on goal did not land a goal. He did pick up an assist and was the owner of a nice five-on-five shot share (20-11). He is scoring 1.3 points-60 at five-on-five and has a 56 percent goal share (59 percent expected) in the discipline. He has scored 4.7 points-60 on the power play. His player-type has always been the least popular among Oilers fans going back to Paul Coffey, but Bouchard is a splendid player and outscorer. Remember, every time you say something nasty about Bouchard, you are telling the world you don’t think this is any damn good.
This isn’t his best season in some ways, but the player chart (via Puck IQ, bless all who sail her) screams quality.
Let me tell you a story. Buck Rodgers was the manager of the Montreal Expos years ago, and the club acquired a tall, rail thin centerfielder named Otis Nixon. Now, Nixon could absolutely fly, so his defense in spacious centerfield at Olympic Stadium kept him in the lineup even though he was (at times) a bit of an adventure.
Nixon had been a high pick, but bounced from the Yankees to the Indians (might be opposite, this was some time ago and I’m not looking it up because I’m tight for time it’s 8:18am) and eventually Montreal.
Nixon could beat any bunt, even if the infielders played in. He had serious speed. However, Otis usually popped up or hit line drives, and even the line drives were flaccid.
What did Rodgers do? He said we’re not going to worry about what Nixon doesn’t do well, we are going to push the things that work (bunts, grounders) and see if we can get him to hit enough to stay in the lineup. Nixon had a 17-year major league career because Rodgers looked past what he wasn’t, and found what he was had more than enough value to play.
That’s Bouchard. He makes mistakes that he shouldn’t make, his calm feet get him in trouble often enough that it’s a concern. However, it’s a concern you live with, and I think the errors will come less often as he matures. Evan Bouchard is an important part of the team. Honestly. Embrace the old guy!
Nuge scored!! Not only that, he did it at five-on-five and away from Connor McDavid. He has scored 10 five-on-five points this season (in 576 minutes), for a 1.04 points-60. Eight of those points have been scored when he is with Connor McDavid (in 345 minutes, 1.39 points-60).
Last night was his second five-on-five point all season away from the captain. Two points in 231 minutes. That was a big goal last night, and his line played very well. Will we see that trio again tonight?
The Lowdown hits at noon and we’ll be wall to wall Oilers. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will join us and we’ll hear from the Denver side, too. Declanations with Declan Krueger is all about NCAA football (go Notre Dame!) and maybe there’s some good Blue Jays news today. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
1) Good teams find a way to win games they probably should have lost, usually through some combination of clutch goaltending and/or their best players balling out (pucking out?). Not that we need any further evidence the Oilers are a good team.
2) Pickard had a shaky 5 minutes but really settled in. I’m quite comfortable with the goaltending tandem for this year’s postseason, and like the dynamic. I’ve always liked the idea of having “two starters” (i.e. 1A/1B), but having a guy who’s clearly the “the starter” and a high-quality backup probably does well for Stu’s confidence/allows Pickard to excel in his role.
3) Josh Brown should be sent back to the AHL/early 2000s where he belongs, hope Stetcher draws back in tonight. Notwithstanding the plays that hurt his team, he’s slow to react in the defensive zone and has limited value outside of his truculence/willingness to punch other players in the face when they oblige. Phil Kemp is probably an upgrade as the 7D until the deadline, where a more competent player can be acquired for a mid/late-round pick if needed.
4) Evan Bouchard is what he is, and that’s a very good NHL defenseman who is 25 years old and has played only 362 total NHL games. There will always be some chaos to his game and even if he stays this chaotic into his 30s, he isn’t/won’t be part of the problem. I’m concerned Bowman might try to keep costs down by walking him to FA on a 2 year bridge deal, would be ecstatic if he signed a long term deal at less than $10M per.
5) The team needs one or both of Nuge/Henrique to sustain some strong even-strength offense through the post-season. When the top line is loaded up with both 97 and 29, it can feel like the other lines are just treading water until the big boys can get out there and score. Nuge’s goal last night was huge.
Fantastic run the Oilers are on. What a team!
Just wanted to echo the earlier sentiments that this is a fantastic time to be a fan of this team. Goalies flat out bailing us out has not been a common occurrence this season, so we’ll take them when we can get them, especially from the back-up (agree with LT it was a sign of confidence to play CP on 1st of BTB and paid off)
Absolutely no problem with critiques, no team is perfect, but dang it’s nice to win games that we wouldn’t in years past. I have optimism and belief in every game, even when facing a 2-0 deficit.
Also a special time for my 10-year-old, he has become a perceptive and insightful fan before my eyes (“dad, that’s 2 games in a row where McDavid has scored from Draisaitl’s spot!”) and it is special for me to watch him revel in the achievements of this team. Definitely hooked on Oilers for life despite growing up in Calgary.
It appears the Avs aren’t quite so gentlemanly as I previously thought; having not played last night after all.
The dirty dogs.
“He makes mistakes that he shouldn’t make, his calm feet get him in trouble often enough that it’s a concern. However, it’s a concern you live with”
it’s something you live with if he’s making progress defensively, his defensive I.Q is boarderline scary, his offence is boarderline crazy.
he would be the perfect player if the two were brought closer together…
Paul Coffey was similar, but Coffey closed that gap between scary defensively and crazy good offensively.
There are similarities between Coffey and Bouchard. At times you were frustratingly amazed with Coffey. At the end of a game you thought he had a bad game and the scoresheet would show he had 3 points in a 5-4 game. Offence always trumped his defensive liabilities. How many times heard in the stands “ don’t take another coffee break”
Coffey moved the needle more in both directions but definitely a fair comparison. I do believe Evan will age well on his positioning and learn the tricks of the trade. Evan is strong we seen it in last years playoff he does have some bark and nasty in him. I do believe he elevates his game come playoffs. If we sign him and Connor we will be in the hunt for a Cup the next 10 years. Can you imagine Nuge-Connor-Leon-Evan playing only for the Oilers. This quiet group of players have 3 Cips in them once they get a taste of the first one. I didn’t like the Bowman hire (optics) but you have to give the man a fair chance. Bowman has done a half-dozen smaller deals that look good so far it’s too bad Jarventie who has game is hurt as I believe he would of been on the team by now are later in the year.
Is there a better anthem singer in the league than John deCausemeaker? Awesome way to start a game.
About the slew-foots. Once is an isolated incident, twice is possibly a coincidence, but if we see it a third time, we can start to think that other teams are trying to injure 29 and 97 ahead of the playoffs. Generally speaking, those two are heady and stout enough to avoid injury on only clean plays, and the league knows this. This, to me, reeks of intent to injure, and the NHL is poorly run enough to not do anything about it.
I don’t think I’ve seen the Oiler players slew-footing their opponents, but please correct me if I’m wrong.
This is the first year since the eighties that I know we are winning the Cup. This is the best forward group since forever if we can find the 4-D that not only fits in this year but beyond. The one concern is teams taking liberties with Conner-Leon-Hyman-Skinner. We’ve had 2 slewfoots in 3 games this is unacceptable. This is not the playoffs someone needed to send a message. If Kane is not returning we need a Olivier type. The league is changing the refs are allowing more hacking and whacking. I don’t want to see Connor-Leon having to drop the gloves. Bowman always had a deterrent aiding his star players for that impressive Hawks team that won 3 Cups.
Dude, touch wood.
I don’t know about this. The Hawks were just overall quite dirty.
Keith and Toews were filthy.
Prospectitan!
A trio of OHL’ers will be hockeying this night.
Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law return to action, their Colts having fallen out of the CHL Top 10 rankings. They take on Wakely’s former squad in NB, who are punting on the season to rebuild.
Also rebuilding is Peterborough, who is dead last in the O. Stonehouse has 1+1 in his three games with them.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Peterborough (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Both times are the same time and are also Scotfield time.
Last night 9 forwards played less than 16 TOI, Kulak topped the defense a little over 22 minutes.
add Skinner, Stetcher, Stew to refresh this evening line up.
3 hours flying private in a first class seat, sleeping in a luxury hotel is not a problem for 30 year old athlete. They will sleep to 11:30 have a great breakfast and do it again.
4-1 win for the Oilers tonight.
We need Skinner early if we play low event and come out of the first tied I’ll be happy.
Stewart Skinner will have to be on top of his game and the entire team will need to be stout defensively. I doubt Jeff Skinner is playing. IMO. I’ve been wrong occasionally.
There is a chance for the Edmonton Oilers to ‘reach for the top’ of the Pacific Division tonight.
Fun fact about me. I participated in Reach for the Top in high school (much more recently than you’ll think RFTT would still have been around), and even trekked out to Edmonton for the 2005 Nationals. Deep deep deep in the annals of overnight re-run television you might find this plucky 18-year old sports specialist actually knowing correct answers to questions.
I miss the fact that local television does not have these opportunities for kids anymore. I did the televised team Spelling Bee in Calgary when I was in grade 6 (with Ed Whelan!) and it was a great experience for me (the rest of the team carried me for sure). Not having stuff like that for kids today is yet another reason to shake our fists at the interwebs.
I remember that show well. I think one of our teachers tried to get a team in our school in the late 70s (Drayton Valley) but I don’t think we ever made it on the show. … that could be my defective memory talking though
Or digging for gold on Popcorn Playhouse which is where I first got my start in the earth sciences.
Top 3 teams are pretty much set in the west. I think the Oilers could do themselves a huge favor and let Kings and Vegas, punch, trip, slew foot, tackle each other in the first round and deal with the survivors in the second round.
Yep. I do not want LA in the first round. They are so dirty. Need to win the division.
If we’re going to point out Bouchard’s braindead giveaways, we should also single him out for praise when he does deliver defensively.
I thought he had an excellent 3rd period on D. Looked much more like the player in last year’s playoffs.
We should be sitting back and enjoying this team like none since the 80’s .How this coach and GM are putting the right pieces in place we have not seen since Sather . You cant have three Coffey’s or Bouchards .You need the Randy Gregs and the Don Jackson’s (Eklund and Nurse ) . Same goes for the forwards you need super stars like Gretzky and Messier ( McDavid ,Leon ) but you also need the Nuge’s and Hyman’s ( Anderson and Kurri ) . Watching them put this team together and then comparing the skills to what we had in the 80’s is what Im really enjoying
.
And just like Sather they are bringing in players to see if they fit into the puzzle and some times they don’t and you move on until you find the right piece . Im having fun watching right now as they try to strengthen the bottom 6 as they try out Philip over a Ryan .Will it work and improve the team? To early to tell . But also trying to fit a square peg into a round hole will not work as there is so little room for error at this level of team construction.
Some poster said a while back that Jeff Skinner could be this year’s Klima coming onto the ice after missing shift after shift and scoring the multiple OT winner!
At the rate that things are going, JSkinner is going to have a hard time repeating Klima’s heroics from the press box.
I say its time to move on … it obvious that KK already has.
JSkinner to SJ for Klim Kostin.
Highlights are on, I see why Bogosian keeps in the league. Very slow, but he is game aware and an absolute beast in front of the net
Since we’re on a baseball tangent:
“Bob Uecker, a legendary baseball broadcaster for the Milwaukee Brewers and former player, has died, the organization announced on Thursday. He was 90.”
Damn.
A very unique character.
He parlayed a mediocre major league career as a catcher into broadcasting, talk show guest and actor, appearing on the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson close to 100 times.
“When asked the secret to catching a knuckleball, Uecker replied matter-of-factly, “I wait until it stops rolling and go pick it up.”
“Juuuust a bit outside” “Boy, I don’t know how these ump’s are laying off those pitches”
I hope the lads slept with their oxygen masks on
The Avs are like the Wild with higher talent. Their stats that I track are at the bottom of the teams. They have better goalering now, but can be loose, firepower and chaos
The key is keeping it simple and not giving MacK or Makar any breathing room, stay in front of them and take away options like teams do to our guys. Keep it tight and cash your chances which will come
That being said it will probably be a blowout or 7-6 game
Assuming Blackwood starts…
His last 5 games
vs. MTL .957 1GA
vs. FLA .953 1GA
@ MIN .960 1GA
@WPG .929 2GA
vs. NYR .931 2GA
Both Val Nichuskin and Sam Girard are day to day with injuries.
Who are you picking for tonight? Also what player has the most impact on both squads?
May as well ask a guy wearing head to toe pepsi apparel if he prefers coke or pepsi.
It’s a great matchup.
Both teams are 7-2-1 in the last 10.
Colorado has won 6 of their last 7 at home. (lost 2-1 in OT to MTL) but Bednar was not happy with the effort in the last game, a 3-2 win over the Rangers and has moved Rantanen to 2C.
Just confirmed Blackwood is starting which makes Colorado the betting favourite.
Moneypuck has the AVs chance of winning at 53.2%
No idea about the impact players but the usual suspects have to be considered.
MacKinnon has 15 points in his last 10 games…Draisaitl has 13.
Rantanen has 10 and McDavid has 13.
Pretty much a wash however Makar can take over a game at any time although he’s been relatively quiet (for him) in the last while.
Looking forward to it.
Well there was one memorable one in the 92 World Series he couldn’t beat out 😉
About Emerson. His scouting report when they got him mentioned his ability to get shots through that lead to rebounds or tips
Ekholm mentioned the progression for a new NHler. Try not to get scored on first, then as comfort comes the offense starts to develop, the player is settling and gaining confidence
That shot under the stick that Nuge tipped was perfect. He and Nuge timed it well (in the open middle ice I mentioned last eve) and Emby placed it so well. I hope we see a lot more of that type of play used. It’s effective against hot goalies and mud D, games where goals are hard to get like playoffs
I was particularly concerned with the start of the 2nd period, considering how they finished the first. If not for Pickard (who I will admit I have been, and remain critical of) that game was over by the 5 min mark of the period. Good on him for holding the fort and for the rest of the team for shaking off their stupor to win it.
I do wonder how tired they are, especially looking back to the hard efforts they had to make to stay with Pittsburgh and Chicago, and what effect it is having on these games.
Drai’s on record saying he hates “chasing games” for exactly that reason. Wears you down.
If any game on the schedule has a “decide excuse” built in, it’s tonight. Right in the middle of the 9 in 15 with travel between each and the 3 in 4 with a near 3 hour flight against a solid team that was waiting for them. Not to mention the general altitude advantage the Avs have at home – some say it’s real.
Can they gut out a point or two?
Yes!
I’m hoping that with Stu fresh and Philp relatively fresh, and eager, this will help the cause. I also believe that McDavid senses a personal challenge to play well against perceived rivals who could be considered the best in the game today, such as MacKinnon, so hopefully McDavid ratchets it up a notch tonight. And this year, it seems like there’s a Hart race between Drai and MacKinnon, so hopefully the Oilers’ glimmer twins play better than can be expected tonight because they’re playing against MacKinnon. Who knows, what if Bouchard tries to play better tonight because he’s competing against Makar? Oilers reach for the top tonight, and reach it with a gutsy win!
I see a lot of travel exaggerations on this site. What exactly is the point? Minneapolis to Denver is 1:38 in the air, with taxi-out / taxi-in it’s bang-on 2 hours.
Seravelli advising no fine expected for McDavid today.
Any news of them looking at Hartman’s slew foot of Draisaitl behind the net?
Worse than a ‘slew foot’, he actually kicked him! Absolutely brutal refs. I would think that the DPS is actually there to protect players by trying to dicourage dangerous ‘non-hockey’ plays with suspensions. Hartman should get 5!
The RNH, Pod, Arvi line was a revelation last night. If they can somehow keep that level of play up, we will be cooking with gas. Gotta try it again tonight against the Avs who are a top heavy team.
Henrique line was poor again, need them to pick it up. Maybe add Skinner to this group?
I thought Philp showed well. Low event, good positioning and skating. Won most of his face offs. Positive sign
Agree!
My goodness did Podz and Arvy drive play and help tilt the ice and Nuge with a few skill plays over the course of the night.
Is THAT sustainable? I don’t know but last night was sure something to see.
Hits pretty hard as well
That line was beautiful. Hope it can reproduce those outcomes.
I liked Skinner – Henrique – Hyman
I wish they would of kept it together
This combo is a good fit for Nuge, maybe even more so than Drai. When playing with Drai everyone seems to want to feed back to him, asap, as he is definitely the BIG GUY. Nuge is a great distributer of the puck, has the skills to score but won’t be the energy bunny hounder (does the rabbit chase the dog?). I think Pod will be more involved and more likely to shoot playing with Nuge. Arv seems to be flying again after injury recovery and is also seems less likely to defer to Nuge than Drai. I think these two could thrive with Nuge.
Have to say, Podz & Arvid have established themselves as a fine winger combo that will show well with any center on the team. Skinner, well I wonder if they could shuffle him back to Buffalo to clear up some more cap space. The Sabers might like him back @ $3M, Oilers couldn’t expect much of anything, but that cap space would be beneficial. Philp was 4/5 on FO’s.
LT said “Well played, Gary. Excellent nine stages of hell scheduling!!”
looks like someone is joining the Gary hates Canadian teams crowd.
bettman saved the Oilers in the 1990’s, but putting Vegas in the Pacific was an act of treason.
They better give skinner 20 min of ice time today
if he’s scratched then you know they are just trying to get him to waive his NMC
I thought Brown was poor last night, is he worse than that? Probably not, might have more fight in him trying to keep a job. Although CB didn’t give up a goal and KK likes that and Skinner doesn’t PK
Brown probably needs to adjust his game after playing on McDavid’s line. Tonight, they’re going to need a strong defensive effort against the Avs.
CP for PM! Those were some 10 bell chances he stopped… true voodoo on his part.
I suspect McDavid had chicken wings with ketchup for the post game meal, and Nuge covered the tip.
McLeod gets the hatty… sort of. Was nice to see the toothless smile on the highlights.
Still used to reading “CP” as shorthand for the human rake.
I think Pronger is “CFP”!
I agree on McLeod. That was a good game. I kinda like those Sabres. Maybe it’s the uniforms …..
Been a minute. Morning LT. On the way to the airport to visit our fine city in the dead of winter. Thanks for these articles, they are always appreciated. Go Oilers Go!
Avs at least had the decency to play last night, so they won’t be particularly rested.
You sure about that?
I think somebody is still living yesterday’s yesterday.
They beat the Ranger in OT Tuesday @ Ball arena Denver, Colorado, USA.