Have you ever tried to find images that look like people or things in a cloud? My friend Christa and I did when I was maybe 10, of course at that age the imagination is more pronounced. Then again, the ‘known images’ library in my brain has a store of millions now, far more than 50 years ago. In the photo, I see a weird human face at the bottom of the cloud (with a horn coming out of his head), and some clown who forgot to take himself out of the photo (at the bottom).
Evaluating goalies is like this. You can show 10 people a picture of that cloud and get 10 different images identified. All of the images have value, but of course your own has the most influence because, well, it’s you. Such is the case with goalies.
Today’s article at The Athletic is about John Klingberg and his 10-year career. A look at his deployment over the years is revealing. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
- January result: 7-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 29-15-3, 61 points in 47 games
There should be no panic from the Oilers, losing to a strong team that is on a roll (and without your captain, who happens to be McDavid) should not be met with an overreaction. The Oilers are a fine team, they’ll need a couple of wins over the final four games to make this month a success, but I don’t think that’s an impossible task.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner allowed three goals on 14 shots and that’s never a good thing. The first goal involved a Viktor Arvidsson turnover at the Washington blueline, a two-on-one executed well and I don’t blame the goalie there. The third goal involved some poor recognition of danger and a clear look at the net without a defenseman to interfere, and a rebound no Oilers player was near. I think you’d like the goalie to stop the point blank play (it hit the post) and the rebound needed helpers.
It’s the second goal I want to talk about today. I think it hit something, or at the very least changed direction. I know many will disagree, but that puck took a strange knuckle-ball route to the back of the net. Pretty sure.
I reached out to my goalie expert (I’ll tell you his name if he says I can) and he saw the same thing. Quoting the goalie observer: “Clipped the shaft of Podkolzin’s stick as he thrust it into the lane, is how I saw it in slo mo. Very slight change of direction, down & to the right as seen from the far end zone camera (best angle). Very subtle, but it funkified the trajectory of the shot.” I trust my eyes, and really trust his take on goalies and specific goals.
I know there will be plenty of disagreement, but the one goal last night that Skinner should have stopped based on initial viewing was the second one. I think it moved.
Leon Draisaitl was outstanding, he elevates his game when McDavid is absent. I thought 29 was exceptional across 200 feet, and would add Darnell Nurse and Ty Emberson to the list of impressive skaters. Viktor Arvidsson would make the list save for the horrible turnover on the first GA.
Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the power play had difficult nights, but the Oilers need all three over the rest of the season and into the playoffs. The coaching staff will be tasked with making these players/areas of the roster spike in the second half, something Kris Knoblauch and the crew have had success with in their time in the NHL.
I’m not worried about Bouchard, Nuge, the power play or Stuart Skinner. The Oilers record is a strong one, they lost 3-2 in a game when several players had 10-bell chances they could not cash. This is an excellent hockey team, with more help on the way.
A busy afternoon on the Lowdown, we start at noon on Sports 1440. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will join us at 1pm, we’ll chat about baseball’s latest Hall of Fame class, and Declan Krueger’s Dunkin’ with Declan will hit the radio at 1:40. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Rodigue beaten clean on a wrist shot from the top of the circles (PP).
2-1 Malies.
I think 97s comments today could be a watershed moment for the NHL if more of the stars are also vocal about it right now. Good on him for stepping up and basically calling the league out. This managing the game BS has got to stop. Just call by the damn rule book. The players will adapt – they always have
Could be but I don’t expect anything to change.
Attard walks in and blasts one from the top of the circles, misses short side, puck comes out the far side and Griffith slaps it in for the 1-0 lead.
Marlines had played over 130 minutes since the last goal they gave up (Matt Murray).
Marlies tie it up as I write this – a quick strike 2 on 1.
Summarizing!
Akey picked up a pair of apples and was named 3rd star.
Wakely potted his 19th goal of the season along with a game-high 7 SOG.
Taylor Hall has 21 ESP which would be the 3rd for Oilers forwards while playing 3rd and 4th line minutes.
15 minutes a night hardly qualifies as “3rd and 4th line minutes”.
To be more specific, his 5 on 5 ice time is 13:42 per game, 2nd highest among Chicago forwards and his most common linemates in order of TOI are Bertuzzi, Bedard, Kurashev and Donato who rank 4, 1, 6 and 7 in ice time per game and he has scored most of his points with those players as well. He is primarily in the top 6.
The only Hawk forward that plays more per game than Hall at 5 on 5 or full ES is Bedard.
None of Petrov, Wanner, Pederson or Carrick are back in the lineup but Josh Brown is in (no Ryan)
Per Stauff:
So he’s hoping Leon scores 4, the middle 2 lines do nothing, and the 4th line will play 5 minutes.
That ain’t it.
The second line has a guy that scored 57 last season lol
“Jeff Skinner isn’t playing 20 mins a night, this coach has no idea what hockey is”
Hey LT,
Been ages since I’ve been here, but as always coming here is a relief from the insanity of social media when it comes to rational thinking on hockey. Back putting the “Coach” in Crazycoach again coaching my daughters team in U-13 (I’m still used to calling them Peewees), so my time is spent at the rink either coaching or playing. The joys of seeing kids do something they’ve never done before or see their life-loving eyes light up while at the rink, is the reason I do it. For years I focused on all the work it takes to coach, but these past two season have reminded me how fun it is.
I know the Skinner situation is one that people (myself included) like to point out as the weak link. I was actually in a clinic last week about coaching goalies. In order to keep my High Performance 1 standing with Hockey Canada, I need to maintain a certain points level, so I have chosen to learn a little about goal tending seeing is has evolved so much in the last 20 years.
One thing that really caught my eye was how the instructor broke down the defensive zone into three separate zones. He based his work on the awesome work put forward by Pasco Valana, who, in coaching circles, is seen on the same level as Benoit Allaire. Between my instructor and Valana, there is close to 40 years experience in coaching goalies. They break it down as such
https://www.icehockeysystems.com/share/drill/6424856
What I found most interesting was this little nugget.
Control zone. We should stop almost everything from the Control zone.
Action – Reaction Zone. Anything over 0.900 is solid and above 0.925 you’ll be stealing games.
Block zone. A SV% of 0.800 is solid to keep a team in the game. 0.850 is excellent and at
0.900 the goalie will be stealing games.
So once again, where are the shots coming from? If you look at the NHL EDGE site, the Oilers are above league average in allowing shots from the Block zone. This begs the question, could it be that Skinner’s SV % is partially because of the high volume of shots from the Block zone.
Just something to think about.
Nice visual
Stu hit the trifecta last night!!
Always good to hear your thoughts Coach. Glad to see you posting on here.
Interesting thank you.
Thanks Coach! I find that while they are far better defensively than in the past they are still prone to giving up shots that are played to the middle out front at times, which Clear Sight Analytics says increase scoring odds a lot because the goalie has to move and opens up holes
Stu is much better when he is squared up tall and letting pucks hit him I think. The way a lot of big goalies play really
I think that’s why most defensive systems today are focused on guarding that block zone. There is an emphasis on collapsing that area.
I saw this earlier but couldn’t get back to it until now.
First, good to hear from you again! Hope you’re well.
Second, this is very interesting. I know that Knoblauch/coaching staff are focused on lowering HDs, so your post offers some idea about what he might be trying to do with this team.
I know that team defense can impact a goalie (Jarry in Pittsburgh) and do wonder if the definition of HD chances should be refined (as you’ve shown here).
I like what CofH does grades HDSC in a unique way, maybe Mr. McCurdy can offer some perspective.
Anyway, thanks for this!
Thank LT!
I’ve been good. The coaching has taken a lot of time, but my daughter is in her second year playing and really enjoying it. I reluctantly got back into coaching after many years away and I keep getting roped into doing more. Last year was the first year of a new hockey camp we’re running here in PG. It’s called, “Whezdut’us” which means, “We take our first steps”. It’s a camp designed to introduce Indigenous girls to the great sport of hockey. Low cost, low pressure, and a whole lot of fun. We’re planning on running another one in early April.
Suffice to say, I find myself very busy these days.
Helping kids find their way is a noble pursuit! 🙂
I am puzzled where you got the data from on NHL Edge regarding the shots allowed by the Oilers. When I look at team data, I can only find the data for shots taken by the Oilers but not shots allowed When I go to the goaltenders, I can add the high danger shots taken on each of Pickard and Skinner, but the averages are very hard to interpret since it for all goalies. When you add the two goalies together, it appears the Oilers allow 280 shots against from the NHL definition of high danger area.
Maybe I am just missing the NHL Edge shots allowed team data. I would be grateful if you could point me to where I could find team shot against data on NHL Edge without having to add up every goalie.
Adding the two goalies data from NHL Edge is not too far off Naturalstatrick’s team data for the Oilers all situations 264 high danger shots against. Naturalstattrick gets its shot location data from the NHL website, but they might have slightly different definitions of those zones. Regardless, 264 vs 280 is not that big of a difference.
On Naturalstattrick, the OIlers have the lowest number of high danger shots against in the NHL. Still can’t fully interpret that because a dribbler from a shooter falling down gets the same categorization as Tom Wilson’s goal last night. Even within the high danger zone there are high variances on shot quality, but Naturalstattrick indicates the Oilers are very good at not allowing high volume from that area. That is probably a combination of how much they have the puck outside their zone and how they defend in it. See the team zone time percentiles and the Oilers are in the upper echelon of being in the offensive zone and not being in their own defensive zone.
The Oilers are 17th in team save percentage on those high danger shots against per Naturalstattrick which roughly compares to the percentiles NHL Edge gives for Skinner and Pickard CCoh as others point out provides their own visual assessment of shot quality against, though publicly they haven’t often described the shot location.
You probably have the proper data as I’m quite new to looking for it.
I really enjoyed taking the goal tending course last week and it gave me a new glimpse into how to approach the position both from a coaching perspective and how to coach my goalies better.
I just know that I will never look at goalies the same again.
Its an integrated sport so being able to understand the goalie position certainly helps with coaching the players in front of them.
I didn’t like the Skinner signing but for them to not put him on the top pp is ridiculous
Our PP is successful because we have different assigned roles. Hyman is net front, heavy stick. Nuge is great at retrieving pucks with subtle passes and shots. Bouch for the bomb. Drais and McD for a list of world class skills.
And they are all excellent at keeping plays alive and generating second and third chances.
Skinner has not shown that ability. He is ‘one and done’ as he shoots everything from any angle – often icing the puck himself. He rarely wins board battles. His style of play is not conducive with the puck possession and cycle system the Oil play. The moment Skinner gets the puck, he spins to the net and fires. Every time.
Would it have worked last night? Maybe. I suspect we’ll see a change the next two games. But going forward when McD is back, Skinner is not a good stylistic fit.
Thanks. This is helpful in understanding why JSkinner isn’t fitting.
Yes but Mcdavid is not playing
Skinner is a proven goal scorer at the NHL level. Well experienced on the power play. Granted not experienced on this particular power play.
A coach could try and shelter a player from his weaknesses. Makes sense. He could also play a player to his strengths.
The power play is not Skinner’s strength though. Almost 300 forwards playing decent PP minutes score PP points at a rate higher than Skinner since he joined the league. Even on Buffalo, he was 7th on the team among forwards in points per 60 and he was 4th in g/60. Nuge has collected PP points his entire career (even before McDavid was drafted) at almost double the rate of Skinner including the same number of PP goals in substantially less games.
Good stats. I wish we were talking these when Skinner was acquired. Or the Oilers were before he was acquired.
Mid round pick for Taylor Hall, do it.
Meh. J.Skinner for Hall.
Do that.
Skinner will gladly waive his NMC for the chance to play for last place Chicago so he can be on a line with Bedard.
Chicago won’t do that, they want a pick. Ship Skinner somewhere he’d accept for a pick and send the pick to Chicago.
If the Oilers are going to go for Stanley in ’25, I don’t see Arvidsson as a viable top-6 contributor. He has played well below expectations. Basically a new, oft-injured Kailer Yamamoto.
A coup at this year’s deadline would be to upgrade RW and divest ourselves of Arvidsson’s contract. You may have an alternate viewpoint, but in my opinion he’s the team’s Denver Boot.
I mean by most metrics he is far from the Oilers worst forward.
He is scoring less than previous season largely because he gets less ice time and very little PP time.
I would not be upset if we moved on from skinner Henrique and Arvidson but he’s far from the worst player
I find he is a smart tenacious player. Lots of game in him, fast, and gets to the right spots to make plays. Not big. Everybody can be upgraded, but Arvidsson does not look like he is holding the team back.
It’s funny, Henrique’s stat line with Hyman & Skinner IMO doesn’t match the eye test at all from last night. Those 6:46 minutes shine bright like a diamond, but he played 14 in total of what looked to me like pretty uninspired and no impact hockey. True he didn’t give up much, but on a night without 97 and Leon playing with his cape flapping up and down the ice Henrique didn’t seem to elevate his game to help offset the loss of McD. Curious if others saw the same.
Also, if anyone here lives next to Janmark or shovels his sidewalks please ask him to shoot more often when he has a clear lane
Janmark’s definition of a clear lane doesn’t have a goalie in it.
Given the Oilers’ predilection for progeny of ex-NHL’ers, I wonder whether they go the extra mile and draft the son of an ex-Oiler.
Enter William Horcoff, son of Shawn.
He’s a 6’4″ C/LW who has 2+3 in 6 GP so far this season. He checks in at #50 on Bob McKenzie’s midseason list, and in the range on some other scouting services too.
If the Oilers retain the STL 2nd, would the Oilers consider the Son of Horc?
I dunno… How well does he russian spy?
Had a minute at lunch so why not. Kid was born in Birmingham, MI, which is less than 100 miles to East Lansing ie Michigan State where Shawn played college. He was in his 6th or so year as an Oiler when he was born so it must’ve been a passport thing, or he reallllly liked his nearby college town.
The only player of note i could find from Birmingham is Max Sasson of the Dys. Not the largest shoes to fill.
Alright, back to grind, enough nosing in people’s business.
Haha, I’m old enough to remember John Horcoff, father of Shawn. He was the leading scorer for the 1974-75 UAlberta Golden Bears that won the national title. Both he and Shawn are from Trail BC and played for some version of the famous Smoke Eaters. William is a Michigan native.
Hey Bruce. I did not know that about Horcoff’s dad. Was that under Clare Drake?
yes
Was the grandfather Horcoff a C as well?
I don’t want to jinx myself, but I haven’t had to do a math test when signing in, for a long time now. I hate math.
On that note; if Lowetide made a math test mandatory for login, there’s no way we would have to put up with HH trolling any longer.
Oh, come on now. HH would just go upstairs from the basement and ask his mom to answer the question for him.
And still argue viciously that 1 + 1 can too equal 3!
Ever since the final minute of the Canucks game this team has really been in the instant doldrums, despite arguments to the contrary.
Glad to see it happening right now instead of mid-May.
It’s almost as if the NHL decided to set up the Oilers to fail; seeing how powerful they’ve been recently.
Like the Englishman said when he woke up in Hell: “Oh well. Mustn’t grumble”.
From the “Decade of Darkness” to the “61 Minutes of Hell” – lest we not forget how bad we all once had it
61 seconds is a long time – if you’re in a phone booth with 100 hornets inside of it.
I’m surprised Arvidsson got so much ice, including powerplay time, after that abysmal turnover for the first goal.
You should have to get a license to make drop passes and take a test every few years to prove you’re responsible enough to use them!
He’s good, but not great. Problem is the coach clearly likes his style of play.
The drop pass would’ve worked except it caught the inside of Arvidsson’s own skate and redirected past Draisaitl. Nurse was fully in the rush, Podkolzin was trailing & unable to react quickly enough, Kulak mistimed his slide and was unable to cut out the pass. Very good execution by Protas & Wilson.
On the goalie talk, are there better goalies than Skinner? Duh! Yes of course. Are there better goalies available that can fit into the Oilers cap situation while also getting a scoring forward at the same time? Or another defenseman? To ask the question is to answer it, it seems to me.
Arvidsson averages 5 goals, 6 assists a year on the PP.
Jinner averages 6 goals, 7 assists.
Nugent Hopkins 7 goals, 18 assists lol
It’s no crime for the coach to use the two players he feels most confident in over the one he doesn’t.
Nuge’s rookie season he had 20 assists on the powerplay, he’s always been a PP wizard.
Witch
I agree with you. Arvidsson has more time with Drai as well and coach needed a goal badly.
But Im fine with Skinner with the objective of getting him some time and confidence, but perhaps not the right moment. Both are worthy.
Prospectiforum!
The spotlight shifts to Barrie and the tandem of Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law.
While Wakely still leads the Colts in scoring, his production is off last year’s pace (assists in particular). Perhaps being reunited with his old NB linemates Can Steensel and Romani will give him a boost.
Akey’s in a wee slump with just an assist his past five games.
Puck drops at 5 p.m. Leavitt time.
So what you’re saying is that that second goal may have gotten a massage from a man, or possibly ate some fresh mango from Joe’s Fruit Stand.
1) Not sure what everyone else thought, but it felt like the Oilers ran out of gas in the 3rd after two very strong periods, marred by a bad giveaway and a weird goal (that I agree Stu should have stopped). Washington has been riding puck luck (league high PDO) and last night seemed like more of the same, not sure if its sustainable but they have been cashing chances all year when they have the opportunity.
2) I (hope I) am sure that the coaches will be tweaking the PP between now and the VAN game, as it seemed to be the unit was just disjointed last night. Part of what makes McDrai lethal on the PP is the speed with which they can snap it around and the high level IQ plays that allow them to feed off of one another, and other players on that unit (particularly Bouchard) rely on McDrai’s 2-man game down low to create space and angles. The unit seemed lethargic, and unsure where the puck should go/how to create space without McDavid.
3) Re: PP – Nuge is a PP wizard and although he had a poor night on the PP, I don’t think moving him off the PP maximizes the players value. Adding 53 to the top unit alongside 93-29-18-2, or letting Nuge QB a PP2 with 53 as a trigger is worth a look in my opinion. Frees up 29 to play more at even strength too.
4) I like Stu, believe the team can win with him in net, and hope he isn’t the next “better than league average but not great) goaltender to get run out of town. However, bringing in a more capable 1B who (a) is on an expiring contract, and (b) has a relatively low cap hit (< $3M, or higher if the other team retains) would make me feel more comfortable about the goalie situation, if such a player can be acquired without giving up a material roster player or any of 1st round pick/Akey/O’Reilly. I threw out Utah’s Vejmelka as an option below, haven’t seen him play a lot but he’s having a good year by all accounts.
5) Notwithstanding 4), I still think the Oiler’s biggest deadline need is a forward who is a proven finisher, preferably one with some speed and grit/size. The current roster is replete with players who play a good possession game but have difficulty finishing chances. I think the roster was banking on 53 and 33 being that player, but if they don’t break out in a big way before the deadline that’s my #1 priority. The Oilers seem to value positional versatility (C/W or the ability to play either wing), and while its nice to have, I hope they don’t settle for an inferior player because of it. Throwing out some names in no particular order, but more so for the purpose of discussion (all are expiring contracts unless otherwise noted). Of these, my target would be :
I’m hoping he’s healthy as well Bruce!
But banking on a 33 year old coming off two surgeries to instantly revert to peak form isn’t a wise bet. An acquisition like Donato would be a good insurance policy and, if Kane is back to his old self come playoff time, the team will have even more depth scoring!
The Oilers biggest need is another defenseman. Conceivably, Klingberg might be the guy, but one shouldn’t count chickens before they hatch.
The thought is Bowman wants a depth PK shutdown type. Which makes a ton of sense as long as Klingberg is up to par.
Weird that Connor wasn’t watching from the press box last night?
Possibly Oil wanted to spare him the awkwardness of the constant reaction shots on the broadcast?
Is there a rule that says suspended players have to stay away from the rink?
Not that I know of. I believe that a suspended player has full access to the team / facilities but just cannot play in the games.
Holy moly – Oil Country over-reacts to EVERY loss.
A one-goal loss to the best team in the league while missing your best player and, really, outplaying the opposition for the game – god forbid!
The Oilers made three mistakes:
1) Arvy on goal 1
2) Skinner on goal 2 – I read the blog and my opinion is that is a very saveable puck and a Grade B, at best, maybe a Grade C.
3) Kulak and Stecher both on goal 3.
The Caps took advantage and scored on their chances and the Oilers were an inch short and a second late all night long. There was chaos in front of Thompson for much of the night and they just couldn’t bang it in. The PP let the team down as well.
The Oilers lost the goaltending battle last night, end stop. I think Skinner only made one mistake but Thompson didn’t make any and had more work.
That doesn’t mean Skinner sucks.
Skinner was “OK” at best, Bouchard and Nuge were both quite poor, the coach couldn’t find enough ice for Philp who only had good shifts, Skinner should have been out there on the PP and 6 on 5, etc., etc, – they lost by one goal to a very good team, which they outplayed.
On to the next.
Agree, obviously no need to panic as the Oilers thoroughly out played the supposed best team in the league but lost because the goalie let in 3 on 14 shots. Yes there were other mistakes but at the end of the day, this is the story and what we have to talk about today.
When they come out tomorrow and lay a beat down on Vancouver, we will talk about that.
At the Cult of Hockey we scored the second goal a Grade A for 2 reasons: massive (as in 6’6, 225 lb. massive) screen, and a slight redirection of the one-timer from centre point. The lack of a defender in the shooting lane was also a problem on this one, Podkolzin tried but didn’t quite get there.
That kid blocked out the sun and some other constellations in front. It’s like when they put Chara in there on the powerplay in Boston near the end.
I would add Bouchard did not do a good enough job attempting to box Protas out from the front of the net. He seemed to leave too much space between himself and Skinner. With just a little shove Protas got inside Bouchard and further in front of Skinner than Bouchard was himself. The puck went through Protas’ legs.
Skinner was trying to look left of the tree, I mean Protas, in front of him when the shot was taken since the puck coming from that side, but by the time he can look on the other side of Protas, the puck is 3/4 of the way to the net. He really is just having to hope the puck hits him. His form was off a bit as he rose up while moving across, but that may be due to him having to try to look over Protas. I would be curious how Woodley would see it.
That kind of goal is precisely the error level for individual shot quality is so high on sites like naturalstattrick. They would rate that chance identically if there was no one in front of the net at all, the shot wasn’t a one time coming off the side wall to almost the middle of the ice nor if it deflected off a defensive player.
I haven’t looked at it since last night but, to my eye, there was no screen – Skinner had a view – or at least should have.
The replay from behind the net shows that Bouch and Protas were to the side – Skinner had a full unobstructed view when that puck beat him from straight away.
How can he have a fully unobstructed view of a puck that goes through the legs of the player in front of him?
That player was essentially beside Skinner when it went through his legs – he was not blocking Skinner’s view.
I can watch if frame by frame from the end board vantage point. From Roy’s wind up through contact with the puck, Protas is directly between Skinner and the spot on the ice where Roy hits the puck blocking him well enough he probably couldn’t even see the wind up and the start of the shot. By the time Skinners head has moved past Protas to have a chance to see the puck, the puck is already past Podkolzin’s stick nearing the hash marks, which is about when he finally begins to react that a shot is even on the way.
It just goes to show why Thompson was selected ahead of Skinner for the 4 Nations.
I don’t think the puck touched Podz stick, regardless one thing about the goal Stu is not tight with his positioning. He has severals holes open, that goal doesn’t go in on the Cqpitals goalie, he played with a far tighter technique. Sometimes Stu plays that style himself, often though he gets away from it and craps the bed. He doesn’t stay connected, one leg down, one leg in no man’s lands, stick hand being lazy. If he presents a tight wall the puck probably hits it.
I’m not concerned about goaltending from last night’s game.
They were terrible on the powerplay.
They had an opposition goalie who couldn’t catch the puck cleanly.
The coach deployed his forwards badly.
4 goals for should have been the minimum last night.
Knoblauch’s blind spot is starting to show and it is really annoying me. Not because it is fatal, but because it will hold them back from being all they could be.
What deployment changes would you suggest?
The Oil were the far better team. Didn’t see too much to complain about apart from what LT covered.
What do you mean by “deploying forwards badly” precisely?
Watching it live, I thought each of the top 3 lines had their good moments at even strength and the math above (shot share/expected goals) seems to confirm it.
I am frustrated that J. Skinner didn’t get a look at the PP at all last night, and hope that he does so in the next few games, but overall I don’t think the deployment was terrible. I still think that Nuge on the PP is probably a good idea, but playing on the opposite half-wall, not the bumper position or net front, or quarterbacking a PP2 unit. He’s a PP wizard so I don’t think taking him off a unit where (typically, albeit not last night) he’s at his best maximizes the player’s value. The downside of taking him off PP1 is that the unit loses an adept passer, but Skinner or Arvidsson should be able to fill in as the secondary distributor/triggerman. My $.02, but I’d like to see this configuration (or something similar):
PP1
33-29-18
14-2
PP2
53-93-90
25-Klingberg/19/92 (idk who else to add)
Last night I said I thought Ekholm on PP1 was a mistake, but after rewatching some of the game last night, I think I was incorrect.
As far as I can see, you’re the only one talking about PP here this morning after. Never mind the endless (& fruitless) goalie grumbling, it was the PP that’s been failing this team. The power of the Bouch bomb was missing last night (don’t tell Podkolzin, as he felt its sting, even if the back of the net did not). I’m going to attribute that to post-smashmouth irregularity (see my note on the subtle but real effects of even minor head injuries).
I like your PP suggestions. I too would like to see more JSkinner on PP. He has offensive cred, if not defensive cred. PP should be the natural place to insert him. A designated hitter, as it were. Perhaps even in place of 14 in your PP1?
Agreed! Swapping out 14 for 53 on my proposed PP units would be my suggestion if you wanted to run just 1 unit, but I think the team would benefit from giving the 2nd unit some time while 97 is out. Either would be an improvement over last night’s unit IMHO
I went on several brief rants last night.
Skinner has to play more in that game, including PP1 and 6-v-4
Arvidsson isn’t a goal scorer – the coach needs to stop thinking he is.
Philp hardly played.
Hopkins is not a #97 replacement – nor should he play so many minutes.
Connor Brown is a coach favorite when he has more talented options.
Leon can’t be a shooter and passer on the same unit alone.
The powerplay needs to change structurally if McDavid isn’t there. I laid out my suggestion previously.
The coach seems okay with long stretches of not getting ahead in games. Breaking even is enough. I’m not a fan of that approach. There are guys “playing well” but not actually scoring. I don’t agree that’s a thing for forwards.
You really undermine your argument with statements like “Arvidsson isn’t a goal scorer” — the dude has 5 20+ goal seasons and 2 30+ goal seasons. When he is healthy he often scores.
Most forwards will score less on Edmonton than elsewhere because McD and Drai soak up so many prime minutes.
I agree that Knobber could improve some of his deployment, like Skinner. Overall, the deployment is a function of team construction.
Let me amend my term slightly – Knoblauch treats Arvidsson as if he is a sniper. A guy you can rely on to get to the spot and fire. He’s many things, but he’s not that.
Capitals tender 938%
Oilers tender 786%
Definitely lost the game because Jeff Skinner wasnt in a feature role and Nuge was lol
A function of the Oilers’ bad shooting and lack of follow up that Thompson wound up at that number. The opportunities were there.
I just went through a bunch of games getting numbers for Power Wins. Really the story still lies in weak finishing and a little below average goalies. Of the 13 teams in Power Wins, they have the 2nd lowest SH% and HDSH% 5v5, the 4th lowest HDSV% and 5th lowest SV% 5v5
The Avs Panthers and Canes also have lower in both at the same time, the other teams one metric is higher or both. I was saying the same thing heading into last playoffs. It can be easy to let having Connor and Leon mask the finishing issue at 5v5, and now PP as well, but to me it’s pretty clear in many games, like last night, couldn’t buy a needed goal despite controlling most of the game flow
To me the Oilers shouldn’t have as much difficulty winning games as they do because of having the Duo and other very good players. Yes they got to game 7, but the road there was bumpier than it should have been. The reason is that they are giving up somewhat over .5 G/GP because of SH% and SV% being lower than the average
I’m not sure there is much they can do to help the goalies, they pretty much already to it. They can improve finishing by playing differently when attacking. When they are facing a goalie playing well and solid defensive pressure, they play to the corners and stay on the perimeter, and often make risky plays that they again got burnt on against the Caps
I haven’t seen them consistently create traffic, or get the goalie moving enough. They also seem to give up trying to create off the rush and seem to mostly look to set up the cycle. Trying to strike more quickly when they gain the zone as the first attempt would make it easier because the D isn’t set up, go the cycle if you have to after
The Caps apparently score a lot off the rush. Makes sense because they aren’t that strong a possession team it seems after that game, but they can finish when they get a chance. How many odd man rushes have the Oilers blown this season, because they can’t get the puck across or the guy isn’t in a good position to get the pass, which is poor puck support
Also the Caps cleaned up a free rebound in front while both Edmonton defenders skated right past the play, while the Oilers were unable to find any of the several rebounds Thompson lost track of, in part because they had d-men fending them off. GA are not just on the goaltenders.
But Thompson was better than Skinner even with his bad rebound control.
I don’t think anyone here is saying “Stuart Skinner outplayed/was better than Logan Thompson last night”
Fun to hear Jack and Louie tout Draisaitl as a solid candidate for the Hart AND Selke last night.
That’s a legitimate conversation with the big man second in points and first overall in +/-. If Leon could turn the trick, he’d be the first since Sergei Fedorov in 94 to do that double.
For those younger fans who didn’t get a chance to see Fedorov play, there’s a fun documentary on Prime called The Russian Five that’s well worth watching. It’s a cool insight as well on the concept of the 5 man unit and the influence that Russian system play had on the NHL in that era.
Leon should be in the conversation for the Rocket, Lindsay, Hart and Selke.
Leon
The only player that I believe is equal to Leon right now for the Hart and Lindsay is Hellebuyck as he is 1st in every major goalie stat.
However, if Leon can only win one trophy this year, I hope it is the Conn Smythe!
Agree across the board!
I think 29 has had a monster year at both ends of the ice, but I’ve always felt that awarding the Selke to a player who doesn’t PK seemed off. Not that the recipient has to be out there 3 minutes a night chewing pucks and forming the backbone of an elite PK unit, but giving the league’s “best defensive forward” to a player who is off the ice every PK seemed odd to me, understanding that the majority of the game is played at even strength and often times the most impactful defensive plays happen at 5v5.
I have 0 commitment to this take, not sure if there’s any merit to it.
I disagree with the final sentence though – if Leon can only win one trophy this year, I hope it’s the cup! 🙂
That’s a tough one. Playing the PK is definitely proof of a F’s defensive prowess BUT the elite offensive players represent such a large % of the cap now that HCs are reluctant to take on the injury risk of them playing on the PK. There’s no doubt in my mind that Leon would be awesome on the kill with his anticipation and reach, but the Oil don’t want him standing in front of point shots.
Not being on the PK and not being able to PK are two different things. PKing isn’t the best use of Draisaitl’s 22 minutes. For 5 on 3’s, he is the first choice to be the forward on the PK. Draisailt could PK, if the Oilers needed him too, and when they need him to, when two men down, he does.
Fair/I don’t disagree. I think it makes sense to not routinely play your best offensive players on the PK.
However, I would like to see the oilers use 29 (and maybe 97) more in some high-leverage PKs in the playoffs, but understand how the coaching staff would be hesitant to ask them to do something they haven’t done all year.
It would present an opportunity to really put the opposing PP on the back foot – the Oilers PK was at it’s best last year when they weren’t content to just shoot the puck down the ice and they threatened with 2-on-1s the other way (13 and 28 were a dynamite duo on the PK last year, still having some good moments this year).
If you’re an opposing PP in a tight playoff game, the prospect of 29 (or 97) coming back at you on an odd man rush would be difficult.
I’m not blaming Skinner for the 2nd GA.
I think Bouch needed to be stronger and move his man out of the way and provide a little more daylight.
Skinner was ok. His rebound control was quite good. The team in front of him let him down.
To that point, Bouch had himself a game and not in a good way. His passing was off, his shot scope was aimed at his own men. The coaching staff did well to move him off the PP, although I thought they should have put Nurse on it.
What I’m going to gripe about today is these so called established scorers not scoring. Janmark, Brown, Arvidsson, Skinner. Good grief. Add Hyman and Nuge to that mix. No goalie can fix that.
on the plus side, I thought Nurse had a great game.
Despite the Goals X, I thought the 4th line of Kap-Philp-Perry had the puck going in the right direction and keeping in the zone for good amount of time. I’d like to seem them out there again. Even if they don’t score they can wear down the opponent.
Bouchard’s man was 6’6, 225 pound Aliaksei Protas, not so easy to move. Not easy to see over, either, which is what Skinner was trying to do when Matt Roy bombed that shot from centre point.
I played net for years and watch the intangibles. Tell me, would Logan Thompson have let in the last 2 goals? I’ll answer for you: Not a chance. Out goalied again. Stu would make a decent, if not solid back up. Oilers will never win a Cup with him as the #1. He’s not compact down low and leaves so many holes open. The Caps have the best record due to having a legit #1 goalie. The Habs are in the Wild Card race, not because of a good team, but because the have outstanding goaltending. Prove me wrong. Outside of Edmonton, hockey fans keep telling me the same thing, if the Oilers had a star goalie they’d have already won a Cup. Switch Bob with Stu and the Oilers win last Spring in 4-5 games. We all know it’s true. But, I know, the Cap issues are a thing. Just finding a star goalie isn’t easy. Unless you’re the Avs. 😳
Fair to suggest the nacho goal Thompson let in from distance was pretty weak?
Intangibles like saves?
How about something a little more tangible. Bob costs $7.4 million AAV more than Stu.
Btw, Skinner outduelled the Avs “star goalie” just last week, though actual wins seem to be quickly forgotten in the blame game.
Thompson cost $1.8333M less than Stu Skinner.
Carolina has been a reg season top team for years, and can’t get through the playoffs. To me many years a big part has been goaltending for whatever reasons, always something. It’s off again this season so far
They don’t have the Duo super charging things to hide it when the chips are down. For me it’s not a question of whether Stu and Pick are good, they are good average goalies, well actually 22nd and 35th in 5v5 SV%, it’s not providing enough saves so that any breakdown that leads to a decent chance isn’t most likely a goal
I have been watching the Oilers for many years, and I know what that looks like, and what it does to drive wins, and win in control of games. It also saves energy, not having to fight so hard in so many games. They should be winning many games easily. They could bail the goalies out some if they popped more of the chances they get
Did the shenanigans at the end of the Canucks game effect Bouchard either physically or mentally? He really seemed to be off his game
I doubt it – he’s a 25 year old pro hockey player I’m sure he’s been crosschecked in the face before. If there was any lingering injury from it I’m sure we would have seen him sporting a bubble.
It’s tough to say but if a player is really of his game to this level you’d think something was not Right
Not necessarily, I think Bouchard is just prone to brain farts/lapses that show up in a big way because of the position he plays.
LT’s said it before, but Bouchard’s ice in his veins/calm feet are a strength but sometimes get him in trouble as he can be slow to realize/react to danger and can be lackadaisical with the puck at times. I think last night he had a rough game.
Good observation @Offside!
I know a thing or two about having the noggin rattled. I wrote about the terrible Nurse bonk earlier in the season.
Most of these injuries are subtle, almost imperceptible, except to keen observers. One of the tells is exactly what you’re describing.
The good news is that a (relatively) minor bonk, like the one Bouchard took from Myers, should have minimal effect on the man. The brain is much more resilient than we used to believe. Still, less minutes, and less minutes against elites and on the PP, might be a good “rest.”
I’m curious to see whether last nights poor judgement and play persists for a game or three. I would not be surprised.
without doing a deep dive and going off only my memory it sure does seem like Bouchard tends to have many dud games when it’s the first home game after a longer road trip
Slept on the game last night to see if my opinion on the goaltending situation changed, and no, if anything it solidified it for me even more.
Went to Moneypuck, bumped the min. games up to 10, and looked at last year and this year when it comes to goals saved above expected. Not a perfect metric, but it has helped identify diamonds in the rough before (Stolarz sticks out as a recent example).
2023-24: Skinner ranked 34th in the league (+2 goals saved above expected across 59 games), Pickard 41st (+0.1).
2024-25: Skinner currently ranked 43rd (-3.1) and Pickard 50th (-4.2).
Looking at the playoffs from last year, out of 8 goalies who started min.10 games, Skinner ranked 6/8 with +1.9 in 23 games. For comparison, Bobrovsky ranked 4/8 with +7 in 24 games.
This data doesn’t show the whole picture, but I think it shows that relative to the rest of the league, the Oilers have been getting average to below average goaltending for the past 1.5 seasons.
The goal is to win the Cup, and it just doesn’t scream absolute confidence knowing that you are going into the playoffs with two goalies who can’t crack the top 40 in goals saved above expected and that is with strong defensive metrics across the board.
Unfortunately, it looks like the Oilers may have missed their mark to improve in that area, with some smart targets already off the board. To me, this is a legitimate area of concern, and Oilers management has to at least be looking at improving in this area.
Your analysis is sound.
The culprit is not Stuart Skinner though, it is Jack Campbell and whoever advocated to give him that contract.
As far as Stu Skinner goes, he was to spend several years apprenticing in a back-up role, and all he’s done since then is save the Oilers 2 regular seasons and win 4 playoff rounds.
The plan should be to continue with Skinner as our #1 and work toward incremental improvement in his game. That said, I wouldn’t be opposed to a more proven 1B in the event we need to again break glass in the playoffs.
Last reg season for goalers over 2400 minutes (starters) Stu was 11/15 in SV% 5v5, All Strengths 18/29
This season at 600 minutes 5v5 Stu is 36th and Pick 30th, All Strengths Stu is 33rd and Pick 41st
If you bump this season’s minutes to 1200 and get mostly starters Stu 5v5 is 21/27 and All Str 23/35
To me the numbers speak for themselves, as posted above the Goals Above Expected tell the same story. Stu is a bottom third starter this season and last, and lagged the others last playoffs
It makes it harder to win but not impossible. If the managers are always trying to get better players, which they are, not looking to strengthen in goal if possible (hello Blackwood) doesn’t seem like a smart thing
“I think it moved!”
George Costanza
Nice one!
I have tried to defend Stu Skinner as well. Did Thompson outplay him last night? Yes. Was he the reason for the loss. I think there was plenty of blame to go around despite a mostly well played game.
The issue for Oilers fans always looking for a scapegoat is you must be careful what you wish for in replacement. Skinner and Pickard together get paid little. He is also young and improving. We cannot afford, either in prospects, players and picks required and/or salary space to replace Skinner.
Lowetide has explained this in greater detail I can say again here but the louder the voices of fans become the harder they are to tune out. Be careful what you wish for.
Why not keep Skinner and trade out Pickard with prospect/pick for an upgrade? Oilers aren’t going to win this tandem, no offense to either goalie. Just a fact.
I don’t know what universe you are visiting from but in this one there is no such thing as a fact when discussing the future. What you have there is an opinion, an estimation… a prediction. Not a fact.
They won the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl with this very tandem. Came within a goal of winning the shole Shmyr (I think that’s how it’s spelled).
Lost 2-1 in Game 7 & it seems like the snipers who didn’t snipe get a free pass while the goalie who posted a .905 in that game gets no mercy.
As LT says, careful what you wish for.
Being the goalie in a game that let’s in one he should probably should have had, when the other guy doesn’t, has a major impact. Yes they didn’t score, if he hadn’t let a questionable one in maybe they would have won
Could have perhaps got to OT, and the deflating effect that has on the other players is massive – oh no, here we go again. I think it shows in reg season games, it kills confidence and momentum. It was the same with Smyth and Koski, even if they had less defensive support
I like Skinner, and don’t think the Oilers should move on from him for the reasons you mention. This fanbase can be brutal on goalies.
I also like Pickard, but his ceiling is probably a high-quality backup who can spell a started for a few games in a postseason, but probably isn’t good enough to sustain a long playoff run.
I don’t like the idea of absorbing a multi-year contract because goalies are voodoo, but a true rental without substantial cap to at least give the Oilers a more solid 1B option would be great.
Karel Vejmelka (Utah) is a pending UFA ($2.725M cap hit), with a .910 save percentage in 28 games, ranked 12th in Goals Saved above expected (per Puckpedia). If there’s a way to pry him out of Utah for less than one of a 1st round pick/Akey/O’Reilly, I think that’s worth exploring.
Not as well versed in fancystats as other commenters, so I’ll defer to them (and LT’s goalie whisperer), but I think that’s the type of goaltending acquisition the Oilers have to at least be mulling.
They won’t get another goalie until the offseason. They gonna give this tandem this season. But at some point we need to stop making excuses for individual goals against and start talking about collectively not being able to make a save.
I don’t think they should or will trade Skinner or acquire another goalie because he is definitely value for his cap hit. That being said, he just leaves me wanting more on a lot of nights.
Last night game is a good example. Can’t exactly fault him on any of the goals. (Maybe the second, as LT discussed) But at the same time there were only 14 shots allowed in the game against one of the best teams in the league, and three of them are in the net. That’s simply not good enough. These things are going to happen from time to time, but my memory is telling me it happens more often than it should this season to the Oilers. Frustrating.
When the Oilers play a strong structured team game in front of Skinner he plays well enough to win much more often than not. Does he steal many games? He doesn’t generally need to. Arvidsson was most responsible for the first goal, and he has been injured predictably this year more than the value of his contract, yet there is no bounty on his head? Why?
I don’t disagree but will say that it’s the nature of the job of goaltending. Arvidsson makes a bad play, there are 5 other players that can cover for him. Skinner makes a bad play and it’s most likely in the net. Arvidsson is out with an injury, there are others to cover. Skinner is out, there is only Pickard.
Can’t judge a goalie based on one game or one save. That said, I do think it’s clear Skinner is somewhere around an average goaltender. He doesn’t steal many games and he is rarely the only major reason we lose games. It’d obviously be nice to get a guy who can come up with the big save more often, but that’ll come at a significant price + the risk the new guy doesn’t perform as expected. Easiest thing to do is stay the course, I’d be surprised if we see an upgrade by the deadline.
He ranks anywere 12-20 in five-on-five save percentage, so average or slightly above/below is fair.
Now, his $2.6 million cap hit makes it problematic replacing him. I’d be interested in theories about how to add a (say) $6-8 million goalie on to this roster. The increased cap dollars in summer may make that possible, and of course (as I’ve been saying) we don’t know what Stan Bowman thinks about Stuart Skinner. Something could happen at the deadline. I would stay the course.
Daniel, my brother… I thought we played well enough to win. I’m not sure about the Caps goalie. They got puck luck, we got none. Then the game was done. And don’t take that cheese. Because that’s nacho cheese, it’s mine.