In November of 2016, as a direct reaction to a flood of Auston Matthews versus Connor McDavid comparisons from the east, I wrote the following:
There is no rivalry here, no history, no glory to be regaled in song. Chances are the Maple Leafs and Oilers never meet in a series of note in my lifetime, and I have no interest in Al Gore pissing contests. You have your problem team, I have mine. There is no interest in this quarter in doing some wacko ‘Bob Costas slide rule find a way to make Michael Johnson better than Donavan Bailey’ moment. Your player is outstanding, wish him well. Our player is Connor McDavid. We say no more, because no more need be said. Post no bills, Toronto. Stay in your lane.
Eight years later, most of that passage rings true. We have to recognize the possibility of an NHL Stanley Cup Final between Edmonton and Toronto. It would be the ultimate celebration for the winner, the ultimate disaster for the loser. There would be no neutral ground. Bring. It. On!
Today’s article at The Athletic offers some background on why McDavid and Draisaitl may play together (again) at five-on-five tonight. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- January result:
- Oilers in 2024-25: 32-15-4, 68 points in 51 games
It is a very short month in games played, the 4-Nations Shoot Out taking the spotlight later this month. The Oilers are in first place in the Pacific Division with a mildly inviting schedule during the final full month of winter. The game versus the Maple Leafs in Edmonton is always strange, the TML fans will be there in full voice and the players on the Toronto side usually play well here. Should be a great game tonight.
SMART GENERAL MANAGERS RULE
The Peter Gzowski Oilers book (The Game of Our Lives) is probably the best hockey book I’ve ever read. I re-read it every few years and remain delighted by his brilliant writing style and his attention to detail. Gzowski was born in Toronto, and became a gift to the nation. He was such a good writer, he took you there. Here is Glen Sather, building a young team as its GM, talking about the trade options for his team:
“Everybody wants the kids. Toronto wants a young defensemen, and they’d give me practically anyone I would name, or so they say. But when I name someone, it just seems to break down. I could have Turnbull, I guess, but I’m not sure I want him. Buffalo right now, why I could pick up the phone to Scott (Bowman) and have Jim Schoenfeld and Rick Martin. Schoenfeld’s just the kind of defenseman we need, and Martin has scored 50 goals twice, and he’s been an All-Star.”
“But they’re what, 28 or 29? and what Scotty wants in return are (Dave) Hunter and (Paul) Coffey. I could do that, sure. We could move up about four places this year, just with that trade. But in three of four years, they’d kill me. Coffey’s going to be one of the best defensemen in this league. That’s all they want: The kids. I’m going to stick with these kids even if it means finishing last.”
Stan Bowman is in a far different place, but the problems are similar even if the possible solutions aren’t the same as Slats in the early 1980’s. Bowman doesn’t have a Paul Coffey that everyone is calling about, so another plan has taken it’s place. We’ve seen it several times this season.
Bowman is acquiring players who are both readily available and inexpensive. Those are two valuable things, but the really important part is acquiring useful players. You know, there was a time when Gaetan Haas and Joakim Nygard were readily available and inexpensive, and they didn’t work out. Ty Rattie did for a time, but not really.
Bowman has added Ty Emberson, Vasily Podkolzin, Kasperi Kapanen and now John Klingberg at relatively low cost. So far, and it could change today, Bowman appears to be the anti-Holland/Chiarelli when it comes to dealing assets.
It’s a welcome change and should reap benefits quickly. Example: Sam O’Reilly has value now, but he could be a brilliant two-way center for Edmonton in the coming years. Plus, the closer he gets to the NHL the more his actual trade value.
I’m hopeful Bowman is active in college, Europe and CHL free agency this spring. There’s talent out there, the Oilers badly need a strong procurement spring.
Ty Emberson played Game #80 and now becomes an RFA with the Oilers at the end of the year. If he hadn’t reached the 80 game threshold this season, he would have become a Group VI free agent.
Hearing the AAV on his next deal to be around $1.5M but I hope they try to sign him for 4 years.
just finished watching the game (dreaded night shifts)
Seriously, if the Oilers are hell bent on running 97-29 together then the Oilers need to go out and find a 2nd line RHC.
Am I out of line to point out that it’s got to be unacceptable at this point to allow a goal or two within the first 5 shots on net?
This is no longer a small sample size it has to a legitimate concern no?
I’m definitely giving Klingberg 10 games or so, I liked somethings & I think there might be some rust and timing issues.
Leafs are in the Oilers heads.
Montreal can do this to them also. And Carolina.
Oilers have the hebee jeebies right up until the end of that stupid 4 nations waste of time;
Because after that will be the stretch drive to the real deal…that is…the playoffs.
Wright knocks down a clearing attempt (great play), goes down low to Griffith who rips one over the glove from the circles.
2-0.
Wright, Griffith and Ryan with a beautiful looking 3 on 2 – perfectly executed. Griffth cross-crease to Ryan who deposits it in to the yawning cage.
1-0 in the 2nd.
Shizzle-schitt, I hate losing to the Leafs. Some thoughts…
1) Powerplay didn’t score. Did everything but, mind you. Still, you’d like to see a goal tonight. They lost the special teams battle along with the goalie battle.
2) No goalie is going to have four games like that against the Oilers in a series.
3)We don’t know how many players are playing sick or not at 100% due to flu bug. Ekholm out was very noticeable tonight I thought too.
4] They always try too damn hard against TO, add unnecessary pressure. Woll was good but there was also some failure to execute.
5) Despite the unfortunate offside I think Stage Five Klinger has won himself the 2D slot already. If this is how he looks in just his first two games back from all he’s had done to him, I’m in. He’s been playing pretty conservative too with his feet.When he’s fully up to speed, could make a second five-man unit. Russian spy three-cee-pee one, central red kind of five-man unit.
6) Boosh needs a powerplay goal. C’mon universe this is getting ridiculous. Regress, damn you.
7) Skinner has had a newborn and a wife who just gave birth at home the past few days. I’ll cut him some slack. Breakaway, massive screen, powerplay… I’m not concerned with tonight’s game. I’m more mad at the coach, I thought before puck drop Picks would’ve been the better start tonight, considering life events. Maybe Eks out played a role. Or maybe because this team wants to beat the Leafs so badly, the core wanted Skins. And maybe Picks wouldn’t have made a difference and they would have lost anyways. Dunno. I woulda played the other guy.
Considering all that and Pickards recent play that was an unforced error by coach
Skinner’s recent play was two excellent games including a stolen win.
Mmm…I loves me some SCTV references.
The judges would have also accepted a GIF of when Russian programming broke onto SCTV, resulting in such bits as “What Fits Into Russia“.
Thanks for catching the SCTV ref Gerta.
It’s just 1 meaningless game lol
Well not meaningless–there were two points to be had–but I’m with you. I don’t put too much weight into single games either.
Fairly low event first period in Bakersfield.
Actually goaltending is a teams most important position to be competitive. This team is at a point where our main goalie does all the right things ,but let’s goals in at the wrong times.With the salary cap going up no excuse to improve this issue.
Summarizing!
And the Academy Award for Soup goes to…no one.
Akey, Clattenburg, Stonehouse and Berry did not procure.
Day got the night off.
Wakely was serving a suspension for a slew foot in last night’s game. Because it happened before the midway point of the match, it counted as the first game of his two-game holiday. He will return for Barrie’s next game on Tuesday.
I can remember back in the day (80s) when you used to be able to walk down Jasper Ave at night querying “Soup, soup?” here and there to those other young folk milling about and you’d almost always be able to procure…
😉
Wanner and Petrov close to returning but not in tonight – likely next weekend.
Good news
When I see games of other teams their defensive net front isn’t clogged with everyone collapsing
Against Oilers there is everyone there
The Oilers first of all aren’t the only good team
They have become a team that plays on the perimeter attacking. And gives up the middle in their own castle
It doesn’t matter why, I can assure you that it’s a very big worry
At the moment, after collating stats and looking through all of those numbers, unless they can start attacking the offensive middle and defend their own middle, Conference Finals is their outer limit
Mid or lower SV% notwithstanding
Oilers have more shifts of extended O zone possession than most teams. They are quite good at retrieving pucks along the walls after a scoring chance deflects aside. Then they are quite patient in waiting for a decent chance to open up in the middle. They don’t take many low percentage shots at the net. The result is more possession on the perimeter.
Still think they need more size on the wings to get to the net front more consistently
I believe you played at a higher level. So now perimeter play is good?
This is a conclusion that seems to be based on….. what exactly?
So, they can get past the Kings playing like this but not the Avs or the Stars?
We’ve also seen our coach been able to make game to game adjustments to structure in the playoffs that have worked.
We also know that the game the Oilers play on February 1 is likely not the same game the Oilers play on May 1, as individuals and collectively.
Based on collecting a bunch of stats?
Go ahead and try it yourself and show my errors
You can worry all you like.
Last time that I looked Oilers were leading the division.
That is definitely the thing we should rely on
Skinner did not have a good game tonight but that’s gonna happen. He won 5 elimination games in the playoffs last year and dropped the 6th 2-1. No, he’s not elite but he’s good enough IMO. If the Oilers can get one of Arvi, Skinner, or Kane scoring on Drai’s line and Klingberg holds down 2RD this team will be very hard to be in playoffs
That would be very nice if Drai had a line. I do not understand the logic in starting a game with the G-twins on the 1st line. Bad strategy.
Skinner was about normal today. Just up against a high flying offense today. Like I said earlier I would be hard pressed to think of any games we got severely outplayed and won due to stealing a game. The majority of our losses we were the better team but the competition team goalie stole the game. Cannot honestly remember one stolen game for Skinner this year.
I think most people thought last Saturday was a steal by Skinner.
I would hardly say we were severely outplayed! That was a close game. Skinner was the better goalie that game but faaaaaar from a stolen game. Today is an example of a stolen game…by the other team
Right. So last week, the Sabres had 36 SOG in the 2nd & 3rd period and scored 1 goal. Tonight the Oilers had 34 SOG in the 2nd & 3rd and scored 3 goals that counted. Both games the high danger shots turned away by the winning goalie were significantly higher compared to the losing team. But only Woll stole his game, ok.
Expected goals against in the game against Buffalo was over 5 and the Oilers won 3-2.
You don’t consider that a “stolen game” because of you narrative – you are objectively biased here, no?
No! Stuart Skinner ranks #55 that’s 54 goalies better than him on Goals saved above expected. And Edmonton is a top team which means the pressure should be off you. If you think this goalie is going to win you the prize you are fooling yourself! Skinner does his best every game but he is not a starter on a Stanley Cup team, backup sure. You can keep complaining about every player and what they need but stats clearly say their goaltending is Below average which is not good enough for the Cup!
Perhaps you should think a full week back to last Saturday.
Perhaps you should keep complaining about Nurse and Bouch and Leon’s bad passing and think that is why they are not winning the cup. Not the 50th ranked goalie as your starter.
You clearly have no idea about my opinions and are now “accusing me” of opinions and actions that are not based in reality – good bye.
Wow, have not watched many Leaf games but J Woll is the goods. They’ve got a chance in the East if that’s what they get most nights
Is there any realistic chance Woll can play 22-25 playoff games and stay healthy?
Doesn’t matter, their backup is significantly better than our starter. I believe he once belonged to the Oil as well…
That is a strawman response
He’s actually calling your response a straw man.
Well he’s 26 years old, 6ft 3in, 200 lb, played in 63 games and appears to have the flexibility of Gumbi. Hard to imagine a better bet than that despite a few injuries in the past.
I haven’t seen McDavid pass a dman and rush the net in ages, saw it tonight in the 3rd.
No call, and then my memories all came flooding back as he flew into the boards.
He’s a smarter man than I, giving up that aspect of his game due to the incompetence of the refering. Too bad, it’d be fun to watch.
More and more these days, I love the Oilers but I hate the NHL.
If you take a players legs out, is that not tripping?
Oooh, that’s right. You can’t make that call against the HNIC darling.
Meh no penalty there. D have adjusted to his speed over the past few years. D who can’t skate and defend the middle of the ice are mostly out of the league now
So he was offside. Fine. But he wasn’t a part of the play on the entry, the offside was well before the scoring play, and the linesman missed it. Do linesmen have any incentives to be precise? I’m so sick of this rule.
Sour grapes. Don’t go offside by 6 in. No advantage gained there.
Players know they can’t get away with it. They should not be risking going off side. The risk of being a few inches further forward is not worth it
If I heard the commentary correct at the time, and that’s a big if, Connor’s zone entry was impacted by a pinching defensive presence, which likely caused the minor delay that lead to Klingberg being offside by the smallest of margins. Your position that Klingberg shouldn’t have been that close to offside in the first place has merit, but we’re looking to press the play there and arguably inches matter both ways.
The call was correct. Le sigh.
These last few close games or loses are on Skinner. Knoblauch has to deliver a strong message.
I recall Mr. Sather – “When goalie save % drops below .910 it is time to move on.”
It’s real hard to score 5 goals to win a game.
Go Oilers
Have a link/source for that “quote?”
Grant Fuhr’s career save percentage is 0.887
GAH! ):(
The blade of a skate, a post, and about six other chances edge away.
It goes down as a loss, but what an effort to come all the way back.
This is a good team.
Champions don’t miss wins because they can’t get the goal
Obviously
Yes, they certainly do.
I love these wild factually incorrect statements about what champions do and don’t do.
That was a logic question answered. As a lawyer you know that. You could find a different way to disagree. Upvotes yes, intellectually dishonest?
They were lucky to be there, I thought. That wasn’t a strong game. They haven’t had a strong game in more than a week now. If it’s an illness, fine. If it’s not, something’s up.
I wonder what you were watching? The dominated almost the entire game. Goaltending was the obvious difference here and all the stats strongly back this up even if you didn’t watch the game
Top with below average goaltending. We shall see where that goes. If GM is smart 100% of his focus should be goalie upgrade, not defense or forwards; best team already! Fix the one real problem
Who is your replacement?
I’ll take the Mickey.
Patrick Roy and his two Stanley Cup rings plugging his ‘eers (against fan vitriol)?
Well, if nothing else, Bouchard has his confidence back, all of a sudden and looks to be about to go on his stretch drive and playoff run heater.
He looked hungry and dialled in.
Hitting a few guys with 95 mph clappers in the ribs will open things up. 24 shot blocks for the Leafs tonight. I don’t know what the answer is but I don’t think that’s actually good for the game.
Man if we had a goalie like Woll we would be a complete franchise team like the 80’s. The only missing ingredient!
Lansky on Lowetide said if they had a top goalie everyone else would be playing for second place
I feel like you’re trying to make a point tonight, but can’t put my finger on it.
If we had a goalie like Woll, we’d be playing our 2nd stringer for most of the games given he can’t stay healthy.
Can’t overcome below grade tending.
Fk sakes, can’t do that. No impact on the play if you’re ahead by a few inches there
Yep no luck and shi**y goaltending=loss…
thanks klingberg common man
For this to count against this team and at this time – no way. I don’t even know why they bother taking so long. The only ones unsure were Leaf fans.
This won’t count
Just give him the Hart, Art Ross, Richard, and Lindsay now. What a pass, what a shot
Glimmer and Shine.
All the way back. Regardless of the outcome of this game, they haven’t played well. Multiple culprits.
Story of the past several weeks.
Oh my.
Right now, Perry is leading this team. After his goal looked every player in the eye with the we are bringing this look. Not cocky, like it’s inevitable
As he did in each other Cup Run he somehow managed as an old guy past his prime
Perry resigning proving over and over to be a fantastic off season move
Perry kissed a goal and I liked it!
Cory Perry for president!
The Worm has turned sniper!
Perry joins the Kapenen movement and we have a hockey game.
Very Wormy goal
Hyman snipes one from nearly a career high distance to make it a game again.
Is everything going to come from the Kapanen line tonight?
The only time Kulak gets the shot on net is when the goalie has a clear sight line on it
It’s like they try to make themselves look terrible on HNIC. I’ll never get tired of eastern media counting the Oilers out. I was a kid in the 80s, did they do this then also?
Fans used to wear brown paper bags over the heads to Leafs games in the early 80’s. def a different time now …..
Don’t forget to include Prime.
Put Kapanen on the top line
Oilers simply have too many players who don’t make a difference.
Pillow soft defending
Atrocious goaltending. Can’t blame the defense all the time. Goaltending is killing this team. Stats don’t lie. We are at the top of the league in driving play. Our goalies aren’t the bottom of the league in saves below expected. Plus they create allot of their own hdsc with very poor rebound control even on weak shots
Sure tht can be true. Still can’t let Marner walk down mainstreet for free.
Top of the Oilers crease has been a hostel most of the night.
At the other end the garden gnomes on the wings can’t get to the inside often enough to cause Woll enough stress. Need more size in bottom 6.
If goalies didn’t have to make big saves then I could be their tender. Almost every game this year we had the second best tender, we are only winning games because our team is better than the other
To state that the Oilers had the 2nd best tender in almost every game this season is simply not a factual statement.
4 goals on 19 shots is not good enough.
No it’s not! Story of our goaltending for another year.
Missing Ek
It’s all we got. Good teams will expose backup goalies. GM better get looking. We had a chance to get a starter from San Jose but we were sleeping at the wheel; Colorado was not.
Blackwood had 5 straight games below .900 before his last game – how is he any more of a starter than Stuart Skinner?
Can we blame this on the flu??? Holy crap
This is a mostly goalie loss
This is all goalie loss. One very good on one team and one very poor on the other. Team still plays their heart out regardless. Most teams deflate when when their goalie is garbage, our just works harder. We find a starter and this team will be good.
Good Gord, you’ve gotta stop that.
Hyman, Kulak and S. SKinner victimized by Marner. Geezus!