If you haven’t checked in on Matthew Savoie over the last 20 games, this player card will be a pleasant surprise. The young man is rolling in the AHL and the Bakersfield Condors are outscoring at a healthy rate.
Stan Bowman has worked around the edges of the Oilers roster in his first six months, with considerable success. The Athletic article today is here.
I always look at splits for rookies in the AHL, because it’s a big step up from junior. Savoie’s adjustment started last season when he played a few games with the Buffalo Sabres AHL affiliate (Rochester Americans). His 2024-25 season, so far, is everything the Oilers could ask for from the young winger.
Savoie’s on-ice even strength goal share is exceptional. When he’s off the ice, the Condors are running at a 46 percent share (71-85 goals) so that’s a helluva gap for a 20-year old rookie.
I don’t know that the Oilers will recall Matthew Savoie this season, but do believe he’s earning it. His trade value is also increasing, and that’s a possibility at the deadline. It’s certain he will be the ask from a lot of teams on March 7.
At noon today, the Lowdown hits on Sports 1440. We’ll chat with Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and Host of Puck Social. Subjects include the Oilers-Leafs game Saturday (and the possibility of Stan Bowman adding a goaltender at the deadline), plus the massive trades Vancouver and Calgary executed on the weekend. We’ll talk Super Bowl and the ridiculous NBA trade that set the league ablaze.
I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1886450942477803757
Oilers number 1 with a bullet in the entire league at +1.02 expected goal differential.
Jackson, Bowman, and Knoblauch have built McDavid a juggernaut. It looks more and more likely that Bowman will eventually address the goaltending situation.
Its further heartening that his pop this year started early – it often come post turn of the calendar or post all-star break.
It took Savoie apx 8 weeks in his rookie pro season to turn in to a star in the American League.
A very smart and responsible 2-way player for his age and experience who makes smart plays with the puck consistently and plays bigger than he is on retrieval. I don’t want to get ahead of myself but he should excel in the NHL playing with high end skill – the Oilers have that.
Mattias Janmark is a winger.
He should not be playing center – it inhibits the effectiveness of the fourth line and it inhibits his person 5 on 5 effectiveness.
Philp isn’t winning enough draws, Janmark isn’t taking too many draws when he’s penciled in a center. Coach is just spreading at the 4th line draws to the Twins, Nuge, and Henrique.
They’ll probably add a 4th line center at the deadline and revisit Philp in September.
I do not equate faceoff ability to the ability to play center.
Yes, faceoffs are one aspect of play center generally but playing the position while the puck is in play is 98% of it.
Janarmk is not a center.
Teams seem to prefer that centres win faceoffs. Often thought to be why Nuge went to the wing
If you’re a 4th line center, winning draws on top tier squads is very high on the list of importance.
Or else why was Derek Ryan so damn valuable.
We all want Philp to succeed, yet a winger can replace his current value, meaning he needs to be upgraded in current times.
Philp is not a 4C on a cup contending team currently.
I disagree completely. They are running with the guys they think will be there on the playoff roster. Ryan and Philp have been assessed and judged to be 5/6C. They don’t need to play (much) anymore. Who does need to play and be judged is Jeff Skinner and Niko Kapanen and, even thought they have a healthy lead due to Pk, Janmark and Brown.
If you want all those guys in the lineup (and I know you’ve said you do want to see more of Skinner) someone needs to play 4C and so that happens to be Janmark but he won’t be there after the deadline.
As I may have mentioned a few times:
“The NHL goalie market is changing. Goaltenders signed more eight-year contracts in the last four months than in the five years prior. During those same four months, goalies also signed twice as many contracts worth at least $8 million per season than in the prior five years.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6107621/2025/02/03/nhl-goalies-salaries-cap-contracts/
“Ray Petkau, an agent at Alpha Hockey and founder of Net360, who specializes in representing goalies with a client list that includes Connor Hellebuyck, Stuart Skinner, James Reimer and Laurent Brossoit. “That’s definitely a welcome change, but I think we’re still well below where we should be, just overall for the position and the importance of it.”
I wouldn’t go beyond 5 years on even a franchise goalie. Too much.
3 years max for anyone below that elite tier of 5 or so guys.
Too replaceable/variable.
Colorado may have hit the sweet spot with the 5X$5.25 million they signed Blackwood to.
Them being able to acquire him (and Wedgewood, frankly) in season is one of the reasons I wouldn’t go beyond 3 years for a Blackwood-level goalie. The $ value is likely fine – term is where the concern is.
There are very few players that warrant an 8 year deal. Igor might work out in NY, but I can’t think of any goalies right now I’d sign for 8 years
As the cap rises, it may be difficult to sign good goaltenders to 3 year terms.
As the article states…the market is undergoing a massive re-set.
We’ll see.
Yes – no doubt the agent thinks they need more money. Given only a handful can keep their play elevated over seasons, you have the reason they weren’t getting paid so much. The Price/Bob contracts did not play out
One thing I’ve thought about with an increasing cap is whether we start seeing high-AAV/short-term goalie deals.
Obviously goalies will want to push for a long term deal and the security it brings, but since there are more cap $ to spend maybe a few will be willing to take a 2x$7 as opposed to a 4x$5 or similar.
Yeah a distinct possibility especially for goaltenders who want to establish or re-establish themselves.
People —and especially fans— expect far too much consistency from goalies. I get Petkau’s argument. I also get it that the last thing a goalie needs is another thing to worry about.
But fans want consistent, measurable results. Now. And tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow. There’s a reason so many goalies used to vomit before every game. There’s a reason most of them a streaky/inconsistent. There’s a reason goalies blossom after a trade, or in a new situation. It has nothing to do with fans demands. Our expectations are unreasonable.
A few random thoughts today:
1) I don’t have a ton of “I remember exactly where I was when X happened” memories, but one of mine was the day the Oilers won the McDavid draft lottery – I screamed so loud I scared one of the janitors cleaning my hallway at the Tory building at the U of A and they had to come check to see if I was okay! I remember thinking at the time “there’s no way a player this good doesn’t win at least one cup during their career”, and “to atone for the original sin of trading Gretzky, there’s no way the Oilers let McDavid play anywhere else for his entire career. Putting 2 + 2 together, I quickly got excited thinking “I can’t believe it – I’m actually going to see the Oilers win a Stanley Cup” (I was born after the last one).
I don’t know what Oilers fans in the early 80s seeing Gretzky, Messier, etc. come up felt, but when the Oilers got McDavid I felt like a cup was inevitable – the Oilers winning one felt like a “when” or “how many” question, not “if”. Hard to think that was 10 years ago this April, and there’s a very real possibility that the best player of our generation, and the best player I’ve ever seen play the sport, doesn’t win a cup in his career. Nothing is given, everything is earned, and it just might be the toughest trophy to win in sports.
2) When Jackson was making moves as acting GM, I was very supportive at the time.
However, with the benefit of hindsight, a lot of his decisions haven’t worked out (yet) and might look even worse a year or two from now.
Kept: Brown (1x$1M), Janmark (3x$1.45), Henrique (2x$3), Stetcher (2x$.785), Pickard (2x$1), Perry ($1×1.15), Savoie
Brought In: Arvidsson (2x$4), J. Skinner (1x$3)
Traded/Let Walk: Foegele (3x$3.5), Desharnais (2x$2), McLeod, Broberg (2x$4.58), Holloway (2x$2.29)
I don’t put Broberg/Holloway all on Jackson, but his July 1 clearly put the Oilers in a cap situation where matching the offer sheets was difficult, and didn’t (couldn’t?) find a way to get either of them signed before Bowman took over. I also worry that buying lower cap hits by doling out multi-year deals to older players (Janmark, Henrique, Arvidsson, Pickard) will keep their cap hits on the books past this season, and if they continue to decline/don’t rebound the team will have to trade assets to have someone eat the remainder of their contract (although the cap increases the next few years will minimize the damage).
Hindsight is 20-20, and this isn’t exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but having Emberson/Pod/Broberg/Holloway @ a combined $8.82M instead of Henrique/Arvidsson/J. Skinner/Stetcher @ a combined $10.785M, keeping all other moves the same, seems clearly preferable to me. Again, I don’t think JJ’s tenure as GM was “Dave Nonis or a Potato“-level bad, but I can’t help but think we’re going to be looking back at this offseason for years thinking about what could have been. There might be some astute moves in there (Savoie for McLeod could end up being a steal, not meeting Desharnais’s asking price was clearly the right move) but on balance I don’t think the Oilers are a better team because of JJ’s moves.
I’m also kicking myself for being so onboard with JJ’s moves, because of how obvious it seems in hindsight: Since when has “sign older veterans instead of locking up key young players while they’re still developing/inexpensive” been the right move?
3) How much influence do you think Connor McDavid has within the organization? When Jackson was named Head of Hockey Ops I saw it as the organization basically doing everything in their power to keep McDavid happy/here long term. By ensuring all decision-makers on the hockey side would have to report into someone who has known McDavid since before he was an Oiler and clearly gets along with him quite well, even if 97 didn’t get a say in player procurement, a GM wanting to keep his job probably knew that he’d be better off making moves 97 was supportive of.
I don’t think his level of influence/control over the team’s personnel/coaching decisions is at the level of some of the Lebron-led teams in the NBA, but I think its safe to say no NHL player has as much influence over their team than McDavid does. I’m not saying Jackson and Knoblauch are puppets/stooges, but I do wonder just how much sway/say 97 has in the building.
Great post.
I’ve been saying and wondering the same things.
Couldn’t have said it better.
A spectacular post.
The Oilers have arguably been the best team in the league for 2 months, crying about 1-3 year contracts to the bottom of the roster of veteran NHL players thinking the sky is falling is hilarious.
None of the contracts you’ve mentioned are a concern, they’re built for the playoffs.
The Oilers are going to be signing cup chasing veterans to short term cheap money deals for the next 10 years. I suggest you get use to it, it’s a hell of a lot better then the 25 years beforehand.
I hope they sign a Jeff Skinner 1yr 3mil deal every year, not all of them are going to pay off but it’s going to keep making the team a destination landing spot chasing glory. And that’s a hell of a lot of fun.
Foegele scratched in playoffs, 0-0-0 unless with Draisaitl signs for more money then any of the resigns.
McFlyeod traded for a top quality prospect with more puck skill in his pinky toe then Mcleod with just as much speed.
Diva Broberg booking his trip to Cancun, Holloway with his one good arm taking the money, good on the franchise for not being held hostage for no damn reason when its clear players are wanting to come to what has been building.
Go Oilers.
I agree they’ve been great this year, I just think its in spite of, not because of, the moves of Jeff Jackson last offseason. Bowman has done fantastic with the hand he was dealt.
“none of the contracts you’ve mentioned are a concern, they’re built for the playoffs” – are we counting Arvidsson/J. Skinner in this? I hope they pan out (and frankly think both can still contribute in a big way), but right now none are striking me as “built for the playoffs” contributors based on the direction they’re trending, although J. Skinner has been a player I’ve enjoyed for years and still think he can contribute
Among the resigns, I’d suggest that the Henrique deal was really the one re-signing I thought was a bit steep given his age, and giving 3 years to Janmark was probably a bit overkill but he did have a great playoffs and the cap hit is low. Both will be expensive 4th liners by next year, if they aren’t already.
I’m fine with signing cup chasing veterans, just not at the expense of locking in players who could be part of the team’s core for the next 4-5 years. The Oilers drafted and developed two of their first round picks who were primed to contribute to a stanley-cup caliber roster this year only to lose them to offer sheets received during a self-imposed cap crunch. That’s not good asset management or roster construction.
As for the McLeod/Broberg/Holloway hate, lay off the devils lettuce, DL. If you don’t think they’re good players you don’t know puck
I suppose a guy should be able to share his thoughts if he has a mind to.
As for Holloway and his one good arm taking the money. This team misses Holloway. He has the speed and energy that was needed. Shame Oilers let him get away.
JJ absolutely showed his lack of experience in his first spring. There is a lot more to team building than throwing out the free agent contracts. I spoke up at the time but I got run over. Is JJ still Ontario based?
Knoblauch has been sensational, having the team playing 200ft hockey as good as any team in the league. If that’s by McDavid doing I hope McDavid keeps pushing his power until he’s in his 80’s assuming any role he pleases.
I agree Knoblauch has been great! I don’t know if McD had a role to play in him joining the team, and if it did then it’s great management is listening to its star player.
In hindsight the signings of Skinner & Arvidsson have been disappointing. I remember at the time thinking it was great too. That was before the offer sheets, so it was unforeseen circumstance. I think Jackson may have been a little over his head. Bowman has smoothed things out somewhat.
Yeah I really have liked Skinner for awhile, I think he’s so used to playing with the puck on his stick he’s a bit of a poor fit with 97/29.
I won’t completely let JJ off the hook with the offer sheets however, because cap management is such a huge part of the modern NHL and I have to believe there was someone in the building going “uh, Jeff, you know we still have to have $ left to resign these other players”.
There has to be some sort of institutional cap-management to stop the Oilers from putting themselves in positions like this. The oilers let 2 of their 3 best post-McDavid picks walk for a few 2nds and 3rds last summer after spending years developing them into solid roster contributors.
That’s bad and not just something we should write off as “gee who would have seen that coming?”
I’m thinking this was something Holland could have dealt with before All-Star break (as I am hoping Bowman deals w Emberson before Four Nations). That transition from Holland to Jackson to Bowman looked awkward. Awkward enough that two talented prospects were lost (the offer sheets were for a lot of $, given who these two players were, though the Blues look like smart investors, after the fact).
Broberg has really come back down to earth. 2-10-12 in his first 15 games this season. Now 1-2-3 in his last 25 games. Yikes! Puckiq shows him having been on a surface-of-the-sun level heater against elite level competition. Outscoring elites 8-0 with a 1094 PDO. Injury continues to be a worry with the way he exposes himself to body checks.
Holloway has been worth every penny the Blues are paying him and then some. Although, he also has an unsustainably high PDO against elites. Outscoring elites 16-5 with a 1091 PDO. 7-14-21 in his last 25 games played after going 9-8-17 in his first 28 games played (Broberg has missed time, Holloway has not hence the discrepancy in games played).
Savoie started at the AHL all-star skills last night. Fastest skater and a very sexy skilled breakaway challenge goal.
I do think he’s started to earn a cup of coffee here. The team will likely send Philp down during the break and will start accruing again but they have been operating in LTIR for a while so adding Savoie for a couple games post-break won’t impact the cap (short term) and he was on the roster when they placed Kane on LTIR to set their bonus pool so no issue there.
Great to hear. The way to success in the NHL if you are undersized is almost always plus speed and skill. Not too many D Ryans out there
Per Wilkins:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Perry
Arvidsson-RNH-Hyman
J. Skinner-Henrique-Kapanen
Podkolzin-Philp/Janmark-Brown
I liked what I saw of JSkinner-Henrique-Kapanen against Leafs. Lots of Ozone pressure and shots. I wonder what Podkolzin-RNH-Hyman might do?
Henri needs speed on his wings and guys that can think with him
Same with RNH come to think of it.
4:30 for that first trio you name – won the Corsi but lost the shot share and expected goal share…..
Thanks. Where did you find that? Neither LT nor NaturalStatTrick even show the line.
Klingberg was 7D per the pairings shown.
I presume recovering from illness but haven’t hear the coach media yet.
Have Arvidssonand Hyman been on a line together before? It’s kind of funny that the guy who is technically our RW is on the left side and vice versa. Is that to avoid confusion if the lines get blended in-game?
28 minutes together and are 5-2 goals.
Without McDavid, they are better, 4-1 goals in 16:34
It’s not the old Mac-T blender but it isn’t far from it. Toby Petersen might draw in if the Oilers don’t win on Tuesday night.
Ek back on the ice and paired with Bouch.
IIHF meets this week to vote on Russia’s participation in international tournaments.
I don’t see it happening but, from a hockey viewpoint, it socks not having Russia – they are key to real “best on best”.
Russia should be involved, it’s sports not politics.
Well… at some level it’s all politics. It would be nice if instead of invading a country (or threatening economic Armageddon) we got our ya yas out with a hockey game or seven. After hearing Ottawa and Calgary and even Vancouver hockey fans (& Raptors bb fans) boo the anthem of rockets at dawn I’m finally seeing some entertainment value in Four Nations. And yes, if only the Russian and Ukraine teams were playing…
How much do we fear &/or hate the TML’s? Here is one view of how they could take advantage of the rising salary cap…
https://editorinleaf.com/toronto-maple-leafs-can-now-afford-to-sign-connor-mcdavid-01jk18t2q60f
What are the odds we lose our captain to his home town?
If it was only about the money he’d be over 15M in cap already. TO could’ve signed him regardless of rising cap if Mitch walked. I think he’d let the Oil know well ahead of time if he was going so if no signing by summer assume he’s gone. Same thing with Drai, you have to trade him at that point.
I’m not worried.
I agree… Hope we’re right 🤞
Does anyone honestly think McDavid is not going to re-sign with the Oilers this coming summer, a year before free agency?
I suspect that article got a ton of Leaf-fan cliks… they’ll believe anything, they continue to dream while awake.
Locking up Leon for max term increased the odds of McDavid signing the same to 90%. I also do think if McDavid does decide to move on the organization will have ample time to get truckload for him.
Re your Athletic piece on Bowman the Younger
I did not know previous Oilers GMs as I took a long hiatus from hockey (Dryden, et al, & Bowman the Elder leaving the Habs after that glorious 70s run was a good time to retire as a fan). As I started to watch the Oilers (another fun, fast team about to have a big & long-term impact, IMO), I took heart that Holland learned at least some of his craft with the elder Bowman in Detroit.
The Pollock-Bowman relationship & its benefit to Habs fans is the stuff of legend. I have a feeling that these Oilers are on their way to legendary status. It’s only fitting that the GM show patience -and the kind of insight & guile that made Pollock so effective. The kind of patience I see in this coach. Who, in his way, reminds me of Bowman the Elder.
The 70s Habs did not have cap to contend with. They had a deep prospect pool (ocean!). I know they traded, but as a fan I knew the core of that team played together for the better part of the decade. Big pieces were rarely moved.
Stan Bowman stands on the threshold of greatness with this team. He holds a lot of talent in his hands. Knoblauch is guiding this talent to play better, deeper -as a unit.
I think it’s instructive to read (in Dryden’s wonderful book on Scotty) or listen (several videos online) Bowman talk about how important that NYE game in 1975, Habs v Soviet Red Army, was to the success of the team in the 70s. He used what he learned then to recreate the “Russian-5” in Detroit. His version of the Oilers current “Nuclear Option,” another five-man unit.
Patience. Yes, a Stanley this year. But potentially, another and another etc during this McD-Drai Era.
ps. Scotty used to be an official (& unofficial) advisor to his son in Chicago. I’d love to hear their conversations now…
Savoie/Savoy . Small, but mighty. He may be our Chick Webb.
Prospectii!
A rare Monday matchup has the Terriers of BU against Hahvahd as the annual Beanpot tournament commences. (T’other two squads are BC and Northeastern.)
Lachance has slipped to 3rd in team scoring but still has a respectable 23 points (8+15) in 24 GP. Meanwhile, Copponi is 7th with 16 points (4+12) in 24 GP.
Puck drops at 3 p.m. Rumsey time.
Rumsey… just a small jaunt down the gopher trail from here.
How does it compare to Benson? Yamamoto? (5v5)
What defining trait will get him past the initial bump? His motor?
Key drawback for TB was the boots and lack of NHL calibre shot.
For Savoie, likely size and health.
He’ll play NHL games, the team absolutely needs what he brings at his dollar in the near future.
He just won fastest skater at the AHL All-Star skills. Beyond that I could not comment on his edge work or stride. However, Bruce Curlock has remarked his 200 ft game is very developed. I think he could come in and contribute on the PK if he understands the system well, which might be his in over some vets who can help on the defensive end of the ice but not the other.
His skating is outstanding imo. Fast twitch with excellent edges.
Faster than Yamamoto, we’ll see about the offence. By all accounts it’s hard to tell with the quality of linemates he has (the best centre he had is barely a 4th liner in the bigs).
It’s been said before, but i think him playing at the faster pace of the NHL will benefit him most. Having Derek Ryan down there is a boon for now.
He’s been on the PK for the Condors since game 1 – mostly in a depth role but they are certainly developing that skill set in him.
Word is he’s a ‘sturdy’ little guy (with boots and hockey sense, as per Bar_Qu).
Good a chance as any. Only the trials of big league play will separate him (or not) from poor Yams.
At the moment there really isn’t a spot for him on the Oiler roster. That could change with the trade deadline approaching. It might not be a bad idea to see if he can in fact be a viable addition sooner, rather than wait for next season. He’s certainly trending in that direction.
I’d argue for a short tryout this season, perhaps when the 4 Nation is done if the playoff spot is looking clearer – ie to rest some vets. If it could be done before TDL then it gives the GM a better sense of what he needs to go out and get too (but that is very unlikely, imo).
Isn’t there though? I mean, who is locked in to the top six besides McDavid and Drai – Hyman and Nuge probably are but Hyman has been playing some third line.
Arvidsson, Podz, etc. are certaintly not locking themselves in.
One would think Skinner should get some reps there before a rookie but, well, coach seems highly reluctant.
Excited to see him in the NHL – I haven’t seen him play at all this year, but one of my friends who works in the Dub said “poor man’s Brayden Point” was his player/style comp when he watched him – which would be pretty damn good!
Yamamoto was an elite offensive creator in the AHL before he got called up but he was 21 to start the season – a bit further ahead of Savoie age-wise.
What Savoie has over Yamamoto is a few things (1) a much more mature 2-way game, (2) a bulkier build for a shorter player so he is more effective on the boards and, hopefully, more durable and (3) importantly, more skill and a higher offensive brain – Savoie is super skilled and probably even smarter offensively than he is skilled.
Very excited about Savoie’s future. His highlights from the AHL skills comp last night are icing on the cake too, wow.
Savoie.More than Fair!