I always liked the St. Louis Blues. Their uniforms were cool and they had a personality (the Blues, along with the Shero Flyers, wanted to kill you). I followed them closely and the team was always about hockey. Oakland was about money, Minnesota was about trading draft picks to Montreal, Pittsburgh was about old men with Dad haircuts, Los Angeles was about gold uniforms, and Philadelphia was about Bobby Clarke and Bernie Parent along with all those Bullies.
St. Louis was about bullies too, and goals, and making the playoffs and trying to win. Most seasons of my childhood the St. Louis Blues made the playoffs, which meant The Hockey News had weekly coverage all through spring, and their stats were updated for playoff scoring. A lot of the magazines would have articles like “The Plagers Fighting St. Louis to Respectability” and “Red Berenson Keeps Blues In Contention” so the general idea I got of the Blues was positive.
The Athletic article today: Stan Bowman’s first six months as Oilers general manager ran counter to his predecessors. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- January result: 0-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 32-15-4, 68 points in 51 games
I have the Oilers winning five games this month, and that includes a sweep on this road trip. Over Edmonton’s last 10 games, the team is 6-3-1 compared to the Blues 4-6-0. The Oilers 13 points in the last 10 coincided with a rare poor streak by the Vegas Golden Knights (2-5-3) so the Alberta capital houses the top team in the Pacific.
LINE SHUFFLING
Coach Kris Knoblauch had the Glimmer Twins and Corey Perry on the top line yesterday, with the Nuge at center on the No. 2 unit (with Zach Hyman and Viktor Arvidsson. Jeff Skinner is up to the third line, center is Adam Henrique and Kasperi Kapanen alongside. Vasily Podkolzin was demoted to the fourth line, with Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown. The fact Janmark is lined up at center doesn’t bode well for Noah Philp, but it could be a short-term rest for the young pivot. Here are the numbers for each line, using centers as proxy:
- 97 and 29: 301 minutes, 68 pct goal share and 67 pct X-goal share
- Draisaitl: 569 minutes, 55 pct goal share and 58 pct X-goal share
- McDavid: 495 minutes, 47 pct goal share and 57 pct X-goal share
- Henrique: 593 minutes, 54 pct goal share and 49 pct X-goal share
- Nugent-Hopkins: 251 minutes, 53 pct goal share and 51 pct X-goal share
- Derek Ryan: 241 minutes, 35 pct goal share and 47 pct X-goal share
- The rest: 156 minutes, 59 pct goal share and 56 pct X-goal share
All numbers in this conversation are five-on-five.
There are some interesting things here. First, Kris Knoblauch’s moves so far this season can be connected to these totals. Derek Ryan is in the minors, goal share is weak despite expected goal share suggesting bad luck. Noah Philp has played 87 minutes, going 56/50 in goal/X-goal share.
A reminder that the numbers above (via Natural Stat Trick) exclude the Glimmer Twins from Henrique down. They are isolated. So, Nuge is over 50 percent without both men on his line. These are his numbers as a center.
My concern with RNH is evident in the numbers, though. When McDavid-Draisaitl are on the ice without him, the line scores 4.85 goals-60. When McDavid-Nuge are on the ice? 2.85 goals-60. One year ago McDavid-Nuge were 4.13 goals-60 and owned a 61 percent goal share.
Nuge isn’t scoring. It’s a thing. Without McDavid, RNH owns a 1.16 points-60 this season at five-on-five. With McDavid? 1.33 points-60.
You know what? I don’t think Knoblauch will care much. His lineup is outscoring. It’s a suppressed offense but the name of the game is outscoring. If it’s 2-1 or 3-2? It does not matter.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic is our feature guest today on the Lowdown. We’re on noon to 2 at Sports 1440, with special emphasis on the Oilers-Blues (we will have a Blues guest and ask about Holloway-Broberg). Super Bowl takes center stage starting today and we’ll throw in NBA convo with Declanations. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
I would put the likelihood that we trade for a depth center at 100%
Sorry philp we will see you next year
Now that you’ve said that watch out for Philp.
I always liked the blues
it started with the back end with Al McInnis and his hard as nails slapshot and tough as nails Chris Pronger
we have fine memories of Cujo and Brett Hull on a cereal box with a GT snowracer that was a must have as a kid
boy I tell you I was pissed at Leadfarmer for crashing into a tree and us flying off it.
and now they have Colton Parayko and he’s a fine Alberta boy getting better each season. And when they did win the cup, well they had more Canadian Players then any other club and they deserved it coming from dead last.
im not sure about Arnies methods of not resigning his stars. They are
missing something, and I don’t think it’s just a D man
Looking at the goalie market the only clear upgrade is 28-yo, 6’4″ Karel Vejmelka.
There are a few decent options for a backup like Alex Lyon, Jonathan Quick, or even Kevin Lankinen, but the only one who can push Stu is probably Vejmelka.
Utah has poor prospect depth in goal, so maybe a package that includes Rodrigue gets us the Veggieman for the stretch drive. I envision that he would compete with Stu for the crease to start the playoffs.
Lyon just beat Stu with a 45 save performance, imo he would push Stu if not run right over him.
Small sample size alert. Lots of bad/average goalies have 1 great game against the Oilers.
If Alex Lyon is a bad goalie, not sure where that would put Skinner. Lyon is about 8 goals saved above expected ahead of Skinner (+7.5 vs -1.2), with 14 less games/opportunities to accumulate additional saves above expected.
Lyon is ahead of Skinner on traditional save percentage this year, and both were at .904/.905 last year.
All of that with Skinner playing behind a significantly better team in front of him than Detroit.
And I agree, Vejmelka would be a smart pickup.
”a clear upgrade”? Based on what exactly?
This year? Save percentage, GAA, save % above expected, GAA above expected, WAR, total goals against, low & medium danger shot attempt save %.I believe Vejmelka leads all of those stats in both all situations and 5v5. Skinner has an edge in high danger save %.
Should be noted that Utah is a thoroughly average team, which I think helps bolster Vejmelka’s numbers. He does not have the luxury of playing behind a team that, beyond its goaltending, has several models saying it is top 3 in the league.
I wouldn’t trade Skinner for Vejmelka, but I would certainly try to obtain him to be the 1A/1B with Skinner. There’s not much to lose but a heck of a lot to gain.
I was glad when St.Louis won the Cup their fan base deserved it. They’ve had way better teams over the years then the one that won but it goes to show you how goaltending, luck and everyone pulling on the rope can get you results.
If by ‘rope’ you mean ‘nose beers’ then yes.
I am not in love with the continued experimentation with the forward lines.
I think I get it, I think coach is trying to find combos that may work when we wants/needs to load up.
At the same time, I think it’s time for a semblance of “normalcy” and what we all (mostly) think will be the case for game 1 of the playoffs – McDavid and Drai on separate lines and McDavid with Hyman.
There is room to experiment within that structure. For example, Skinner at left wing with either McDavid or Drai makes sense and has been “earned” by Skinner based on his play. Connor Brown “earned” some looks, how has Jeff Skinner not?
I am starting to wonder if this is Knoblauch’s style. He did it all preseason and once things were settled with their play in season, he has gone back to this. I agree with you, it is not optimal.
As I recall earlier in his tenure with the Oilers, he was keeping lines together to develop chemistry. Somehow this approach has changed, or maybe when he feels he finds the right combinations he will return to that mind set. There’s a line combination & defensive pair ultimately for every situation on the ice, getting the right players on the ice at the right time is important, it’s probably valuable for making in game adjustments. The regular season is probably the time for experimentation and the playoffs is when it should all comes together.
These are long seasons. I think the experimentation does other things as well. Good, smart players often play differently in different situations, with other different players. Change-ups keep everyone a bit more engaged maybe more creative, a bit more able to see other options. Also gives coaches a glimpse into a player’s different skills and weaknesses. Past usage and success of a player may provide the answer to an obvious question (will Skinner/Nuge/Hyman score at the assumed rate; the McDrai bunch can dominate) but not the unknown (are they good in situation X, with different players) So a coach and playersCo have the confidence that the combination of players that can score at will may have take a back seat in another combination in a game with a one goal (lead) when 3 players who read each other better in the defensive zone, and who have the confidence together in that situation, might be what is required. Confidence is a big thing in hockey, individual and confidence in the others on the ice to do what they are supposed to. Trying to do too much because you feel the others can’t or won’t leads to being out of position, gambling etc. And we have a history of that. All part of a long season.
I’m with you. Mix and mix and mix again. This season is only about experimentation so that come game 83 everyone -players and coach, if not fans and pundits- knows who they are, how they fit, in every possible situation. Aside from securing a playoff spot, and -secondarily, home-ice advantage- these 82 games are only about preparing for the run to Stanley. Coach, mix & test!
Agreed. Getting sick of the MacT blender. This may actually be worse.
There is no doubt the Oilers are a better team than either of their opponents in the next 36 hours.
Any team can win against any other team on any given night but just win these two games. Play a solid and structured game and prove superiority.
Just do it.
Its a good couple of games to re-discover their defensive chops which has been missing the last little bit. Maybe don’t spot the other team a 2-3 goal lead for the next bit.
One result of the surging cap ceiling is that Alan Walsh of the Agent Provocateur podcast predicts that teams will be much more likely to make offer sheets to RFAs. A rising cap will hide a lot of mistakes or make overpays seem reasonable.
He pointed out that San Jose will have $48 million in cap room this offseason. His speculation was SJ could make matching $14M AAV runs at Marner and Rantanen and still have $14M left over to play with.
My own thought is that with the rising cap, good players that signed long term deals before this year will be even more valuable as trade candidates. Their numbers are locked in and will look like bigger bargains each year that goes by.
Another aspect of the sea of cap space that shouldn’t be overlooked is that teams with bad contracts will be more willing to buy out those players.
The building of that expansion Blues club is a good story, as told by Bowman the Elder to Dryden, in “Scotty.” I can’t remember if Sather was on that club, but he seems the type Bowman would have chosen. As he did later, with the Habs. Building a relatively successful Frankenstein’s monster from the parts available. Starting with a prettier face, but not so different from what Bowman the Younger is now doing with the Oilers?
Mrs. Llama and I will be at the game tonight. Making the road trip from Evansville, IN right after teaching my Contemporary Sociological Theory class. We have been terrible luck for the Oilers in recent years. Whether Edmonton (home for the holidays), St. Louis, or Nashville, we haven’t seen them win in three forevers. At one point the Oilers had beaten Nashville something like 7 of their last 8 games. Guess which one we were at! Hoping to break the curse tonight.
As someone who lives in the east and travels for a game or two each year I feel you. I think I am 0-5 in my last few seasons. Including a loss to Ottawa, in Ottawa. Good god.
At some point there will be regression (so I’m told). Keep showing up!
ps. As a sociology undergrad I looked down my nose at “sports sociology.” Now, it would be my major! Any suggested reading on sociology of hockey welcomed.
Not really my area (I do theory, pop culture, gender studies) but I always give my intro students a lecture on mythologizing cultural symbols using “The Goal” photograph of Paul Henderson in the Summit Series. “If there’s a goal the everyone remembers…”
Good lluck and safe travels!
I don’t have much of a connection with the Blues, but will agree on the jersey. I do remember getting several duplicate hockey cards with players I had no idea about (at the time) like Joe Mullen and Rob Ramage and sure they were destined for trade or bicycle spokes.
When they won the cup I recall ‘Grapes’ saying something like 18 of the 22 players, and the entire management staff was Canadian, so that was worth noting.
Now, if I still collected hockey cards, or remembered how to ride a bike, I’m sure I’d have Broberg and Holloway rattling around on my tires.
I haven’t spent much time analyzing RNH’s style of play this year – has it changed significantly from years’ past? What is different and why less success with McD?
RNH seems to score most of his goals with a quick release snap shot. Has he lost some velocity/accuracy? Or not getting the puck in the high slot as often?
Or is it the reverse – what has changed with McD? He doesn’t seem to be shooting as much which may be resulting RNH’s assist totals.
All of these variables, and more?
For me, he doesn’t seem to be getting to plays on time. Nuge’s game is stops and starts, great edges and always being around the puck. He’s lagging somehow. I don’t have a reason for it, but wonder if the long playoff run took something out of him.
Strange how the Oilers satanic ex GM Chiarelli behind the offer sheet Blues who suddenly have become an anti-Oilers team.
I never used to hear Blues fans going out of their 1 cup in 55+ years way to diss the Oilers until recently.
So where does tonight’s game go? Do Blues send someone out to kneecap one of the Oilers?
Is this still the kind of crap NHL fans have to tolerate from scumbags like Chiarelli?
The Blues do not have any heavyweights, and are not a particularly dirty team.
They have a couple of middleweights and lightweights in the bottom six, and a 6D (Tucker) who will fight.
Alex Steen is the named heir to Doug Armstrong. A Canadian Swede.
I never had anything against St Louis, before the offer sheet malarkey and the sudden attacks from their fans on our poor Oilers.
Oilers need a win tonight . Time to break up the Nuclear line and get 2 lines going that can add 2 threats hopefully. Put Heiman back with McDavid . I have no clue why he isn’t.
Podkolzin and Arvidson with 6 goals each on the year is not near enough good production for top 6 wingers. Funny that Skinner has 9 pretty much toiling in the bottom 6 and the press box 6 times. ( No clue why they don’t stick him on Drai’s wing for several games and give him a really good look see.).
Bring up Savoie for a few games and try him out if you are not going to give Skinner a look.
Oilers need a lot more scoring and hopefully tonight Drai and McD are on seperate lines.
Need a strong 1st period to start tonight.
I do not like something like 28 of the other teams in the league. I hate a bunch (Vcr, LV, Florida, Dal, Min, TB), most I can’t cheer for (Tor, Mtl, Ott, Utah, Cal, Buf, Det, NYR, LA, Ana, Sea, Col, etc) and a couple of teams I don’t mind (Car, SJ, Win). St Louis for me is a team I do not have strong feelings about one way or the other. It has been a nothing franchise for as long as I can remember, even the year they won the Cup, that I have a hard time feeling anything beyond “meh” towards.
Now, I did not like the offer sheet this summer, but it was a smart move and woke up the league to the utility of this tool (to speeds’ great rejoicing). But I want Holloway and Broberg to do well for a long time. So, I say I have a lot invested in the game tonight, beyond hoping the Oil thump them but good.
I think we will see a lot more offer sheets in the league moving forward starting this summer.
I agree
Cap rising will make it tougher to offer sheet, but the jackboot to the players face coming off of their ELC is over. They will have to be paid fairly.
Fairly, sure. But that would suggest contracts in line with production and comparable players in similar situations (position, contract status, TOI, etc).
Holloway and Broberg were offered contracts that paid for their potential, not their production.
I don’t. It cost Lowe and the Oilers credibility for years same thing will happen to Mr. Smarty-pants in St.Louis.
Carolina? BLASPHEMY
Prospectury!
OHL goodness aplenty this day.
The Knights of London remain atop the CHL rankings, whilst Barrie rejoins the list at #10.
London’s match can be seen on TSN+. Check your local listings. Note the earlier start time.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 4:30 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Marlboro time.
Ah yes, Marlboro. Where the men are men, and the women are thankful for it.