I always liked the St. Louis Blues. Their uniforms were cool and they had a personality (the Blues, along with the Shero Flyers, wanted to kill you). I followed them closely and the team was always about hockey. Oakland was about money, Minnesota was about trading draft picks to Montreal, Pittsburgh was about old men with Dad haircuts, Los Angeles was about gold uniforms, and Philadelphia was about Bobby Clarke and Bernie Parent along with all those Bullies.
St. Louis was about bullies too, and goals, and making the playoffs and trying to win. Most seasons of my childhood the St. Louis Blues made the playoffs, which meant The Hockey News had weekly coverage all through spring, and their stats were updated for playoff scoring. A lot of the magazines would have articles like “The Plagers Fighting St. Louis to Respectability” and “Red Berenson Keeps Blues In Contention” so the general idea I got of the Blues was positive.
The Athletic article today: Stan Bowman’s first six months as Oilers general manager ran counter to his predecessors. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- January result: 0-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 32-15-4, 68 points in 51 games
I have the Oilers winning five games this month, and that includes a sweep on this road trip. Over Edmonton’s last 10 games, the team is 6-3-1 compared to the Blues 4-6-0. The Oilers 13 points in the last 10 coincided with a rare poor streak by the Vegas Golden Knights (2-5-3) so the Alberta capital houses the top team in the Pacific.
LINE SHUFFLING
Coach Kris Knoblauch had the Glimmer Twins and Corey Perry on the top line yesterday, with the Nuge at center on the No. 2 unit (with Zach Hyman and Viktor Arvidsson. Jeff Skinner is up to the third line, center is Adam Henrique and Kasperi Kapanen alongside. Vasily Podkolzin was demoted to the fourth line, with Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown. The fact Janmark is lined up at center doesn’t bode well for Noah Philp, but it could be a short-term rest for the young pivot. Here are the numbers for each line, using centers as proxy:
- 97 and 29: 301 minutes, 68 pct goal share and 67 pct X-goal share
- Draisaitl: 569 minutes, 55 pct goal share and 58 pct X-goal share
- McDavid: 495 minutes, 47 pct goal share and 57 pct X-goal share
- Henrique: 593 minutes, 54 pct goal share and 49 pct X-goal share
- Nugent-Hopkins: 251 minutes, 53 pct goal share and 51 pct X-goal share
- Derek Ryan: 241 minutes, 35 pct goal share and 47 pct X-goal share
- The rest: 156 minutes, 59 pct goal share and 56 pct X-goal share
All numbers in this conversation are five-on-five.
There are some interesting things here. First, Kris Knoblauch’s moves so far this season can be connected to these totals. Derek Ryan is in the minors, goal share is weak despite expected goal share suggesting bad luck. Noah Philp has played 87 minutes, going 56/50 in goal/X-goal share.
A reminder that the numbers above (via Natural Stat Trick) exclude the Glimmer Twins from Henrique down. They are isolated. So, Nuge is over 50 percent without both men on his line. These are his numbers as a center.
My concern with RNH is evident in the numbers, though. When McDavid-Draisaitl are on the ice without him, the line scores 4.85 goals-60. When McDavid-Nuge are on the ice? 2.85 goals-60. One year ago McDavid-Nuge were 4.13 goals-60 and owned a 61 percent goal share.
Nuge isn’t scoring. It’s a thing. Without McDavid, RNH owns a 1.16 points-60 this season at five-on-five. With McDavid? 1.33 points-60.
You know what? I don’t think Knoblauch will care much. His lineup is outscoring. It’s a suppressed offense but the name of the game is outscoring. If it’s 2-1 or 3-2? It does not matter.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic is our feature guest today on the Lowdown. We’re on noon to 2 at Sports 1440, with special emphasis on the Oilers-Blues (we will have a Blues guest and ask about Holloway-Broberg). Super Bowl takes center stage starting today and we’ll throw in NBA convo with Declanations. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
LT, a couple of questions and couple comments:
You often talk about Skinner’s 5×5 save percentage. Is there any evidence that this is more important than overall save percentage?
Travis Yost showed in November that Edmonton was one of the best at expected goals against on the PK, but was among the worst in actual goals against: https://dailyhive.com/edmonton/stats-reason-oilers-pk-struggles
So I’m also just curious why do you think the PK struggles are more team related than goaltender related? Unless the data has changed dramatically, stats would suggest the goaltenders are more to blame
Now for the eye test. Last night, the PK goal could have been prevented if Skinner handled a well-seen shot, without it coming out to a Blue. He then let the rebounded shot get through his legs. RNH didn’t make much of an effort to stop the goal line scramble but his initial position suggested confidence in the goalie. The entire PK prior to that point was very well executed by the defenders. In Toronto, similar issues with shots getting deflected to Leafs at point blank range, with blame to be shared on the goalie and the defenders not picking up the Leaf in close. Also true that Woll stopped harder chances while down a man.
The other comment is that Skinner’s lateral mobility has not improved, and opposing PP is seemingly coached to exploit that. I have seen a few too many of the cross ice passes get through (something that wasn’t happening last playoffs), but you can’t stop them all and Skinner continues to struggle here.
Will also add Skinner’s streaks were a really interesting graphic https://oilersnation.com/news/oilers-3-stars-of-the-week-perry-keeps-scoring-draisaitl-inches-closer-to-nhl-points-lead
Don’t know if you can make this for any goalie in the league. Impressive that they won the first rounds with goaltending at the 5%ile, and impressive that Skinner gave them close to 90%ile against Dallas and Florida. Concerning that both happened in the same run, but I don’t know how much to read into this.
It’s funny.
Some of the Oilers who are getting criticized for their play recently had great games. Bouchard, solid at both ends. Jeff Skinner, 200 foot player tonight. Stuart Skinner, made a lot of high danger stops to keep it close.
Jeff Skinner is showing that the message has been received loud and clear. His last few games have shown a marked improvement in back checking and effort. Not nearly as much puck watching and floating outside, letting others play defence.
If Coach Knob moves back to McDavid and Drai on separate lines, I think Skinner’s earned a look on one of their lines. I actually think he might fit better with Drai as a winger.
Oh, and Brown with the GWG in OT tonight.
Tough time to succeed in Oilerville these days.
These days sure beat the Lowe+MacT era.
This time of the season Lowe+MacT teams were invariably 2-3 spots below the playoff cut, and desperately kept seeking cheap bargain players like Nedved to lead them to the promised land.
2/3 of the time they fell short, or else were bounced quickly from any playoffs.
Chris Pronger personally led the Oilers in 2006, in my opinion. Although he didn’t get to pick Oilers 2nd best goalie – leaving MacT to pick Oilers 3rd goalie as a typically MacT genius move that only he can ever understand.
If this team ever wins a cup I’m all for a Lowe+MacT statue for drafting McDavid.
Why oh why did mact play the backup carasal?
Conklin was better.
And it was Jason Smith’s fault.
You spelled Bergeron wrong.
I saw a video in which McT said his biggest mistake and regret as a coach was not having his second best goalie as the backup that game
Arguably one of the biggest wins of the season so far.
Blues know they’re headed for the lottery, while Oilers larked about and edged out another W just before the dad blasted break.
Demko having a hell of a game so far for the Nucks against Colorado. I thought there was no shot for them to make the playoffs given what’s happened this season, but if he’s healthy and gets hot they might sneak in.
Jets will absolutely be the only/main challenge. Gonna set their thugs on Connor and Leon and rely on the refs ignoring 75%+ of the infractions then rely on their skill to out-skill our remaining skill. Special teams seem like a saw off. They’ll have the edge in net.
Who are Winnipeg’s thugs? Scheifle is second on the team in PIM …
I have utter confidence we can beat anyone. But. Vegas will be a challenge. Kings scare me because i think of the oilers and stars, and how we played them so many times, then one year slipped by them…. i would not take the avs lightly. They have 2 of the top what…. 5 or 6 players in the world and a goalie who can get hot? Dalls is a very good team. Jets seem to be absolutely rolling this year. Kinda like the knucks last year, or the flames the year before that. We took care of those teams… but u still have some worry that dates back to the, was it a sweep? Can’t remember. The shellacking anyway.
Yeah I was going to say WPG has struggled in the playoffs and the West is full of teams that can give the Oilers trouble.
VGK, DAL (assuming Heiskanen is back healthy), COL are all capable of beating EDM in a series, and frankly there’s a chance the Oilers lose to the Kings if that’s their first round matchup. And all those teams will be adding at the deadline (and in VGK/DAL case, likely utilizing LTIR and coming into the playoffs with a stacked roster).
If the playoffs started today, I’d feel good about EDM’s chances but I certainly wouldn’t think it’s a two-team race in the West.
Since every playoff team has got a good amount of talent, given that in the 1970s there were say 14 teams and 8 got in while some of the 8 were clearly inferior to the top 4-5 teams.
These days it’s almost impossible to show up year after year in the playoffs, not like it was in the 1980s.
I’m worried about Carolina, Toronto and even Florida in the East; Winnipeg, Avs and Kniggets in the West.
I worry about TO because of how tight our guys will be gripping the sticks. Less worried about Florida tjis time around. Carolina? Maybe i should be more worries. Caps and TO. Goalies that could steal some games.
TO should be more worried about themselves.
Playoff 7 game series generally go to the best team, and the Oilers are capable of being that in any series.
Trade deadline acquisitions are going to be key, as well as the status of Kane
Jets will be lucky to get that far to start with.
Should they meet the Oilers they’re going to be chasing them for a stirring(for the Jets) 6 game series loss.
I went back and rewatched the Schenn hit and while I do think it’s a 2 min boarding penalty that was missed, I don’t think it’s suspension worthy. Not putting it on Hyman, but he did turn at the last minute to show Schenn his numbers, which is probably why the ref in the corner missed the call. Still, you’d like the other official to see that contact and call it, and it’s a bad missed call.
Also rewatched the Ekholm penalty a bunch and, unpopular opinion, I think it’s a penalty in today’s NHL. Love that Ekholm stepped up to take the body, but Schenn doesn’t touch the puck, and in today’s NHL you can’t lay someone out just because the puck is in their feet/near their stick. Tough for Ekholm to lay off at the last second because it looks like Schenn’s going to get a touch on the puck, but he doesn’t, so that’s a penalty. Onus is in Ekholm to pull up once he sees Schenn never gets possession/touches the puck, but it’s a split second decision and frankly if I’m the coaching staff I’m fine eating the 2 min penalty and encouraging my D to step up and make that hit.
Refs missed a clear holding the stick penalty on 29 in overtime, and I’m sure there were probably 5 other stick infractions or cross checks that could have been called on either side but weren’t.
Overall poorly officiated game that maybe benefited STL (I see the Schenn missed call and the missed holding the stick as a wash).
However, for a cup contender playing a team that’s already started selling off before the deadline, you need to get at least one goal at 5-on-5 for all that possession dominance, if not more, and you can’t be focusing on shot-supression to the extent you’re content playing keep away/defense with a 1-goal lead. The margins are so thin and all it takes is one bad call (or one of your players taking an actual penalty) and the game could be tied up.
As someone else said below, not a repeatable formula for victory, but a W is a W, and 1st in the Pacific with a game in hand is pretty sweet.
Here’s hoping the team can start generating some non-McDrai offense, ASAP
Good analysis.
For this alleged Oilers fan it looked like a deserved/undeserved Win at the most critical point of the season so far.
Thanks! I agree
It was a definite boarding. If Hyman was concussed, you’d be thinking differently about suspension. And that’s my point. Injury shouldn’t dictate whether a suspension is warranted. He knew what he was doing and knocked a guy headfirst into the boards. It’s not a hockey play
I would not be thinking about suspension if Hyman was injured. I hate it when people think just because an injury results a suspension is warranted. Results of a play shouldn’t dictate punishment.
Schenn is going to hit Hyman hard in the shoulder into the boards, Hyman turns at the last minute and goes headfirst into the boards. Schenn is trying to lay a big hit, not Bertuzzi him.
There’s no intent to injure, late hit, etc., Schenn doesn’t let up in a split-second decision (much like the Ekholm penalty), and should’ve been called for boarding, but claiming this isn’t a “hockey play” like Torres or Cooke head hunting is crazy.
If this was an Evander Kane hit on Connor Garland there’s no way you’d be claiming this was a suspension
If you watch replay – ref in the corner started to put his arm up to signal penalty and then he remembered the score or it was because Oilers, so he quickly put his arm down.
Oilers:
1) first in division, two points up with a game in hand
2) 2nd in conference
3) 3rd in the league
Seemingly holes all over the lineup, the Oilogosphere tells me we need:
1) upgrade on starting goaltender
2) upgrade on back-up goaltender
3) top 6 scoring winger
4) 4C
5) Bottom six truculence
6) 2RD
Imagine where the Oilers would be in the standing without all those holes. I wonder what the holes are on the 29 teams worse than them.
How’s the air up there?
You’re like the anti-HH here OP lol
Don’t worry, HH’s jet will be landing shortly, as soon as it taxis in from another airport.
He is the anti-HH, but I don’t think he is offside on the post. The Oilers have issues, I think all the other teams also have issues. They are still winning and are first in the division, despite the issues that are brought up everyday here.
Sure but Thomas should have had 10 goals. LOL 😆.
“the oilers are a good team capable of winning a cup” and “there are areas of the roster for meaningful improvement” aren’t mutually exclusive.
Other good teams will be improving by adding at/before the deadline as well, and you have to be planning to make moves in anticipation of the teams around you getting better.
Also, I’d argue that the Oilers top-heavy roster means that there may actually be more holes in their roster than deeper teams with less top-end talent. I’d take the Oilers situation 10 times out of 10 because Kings and Queens are harder to find than 7s and 8s, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t real, legitimate area for improvement. The Oilers holes might be less fatal (“no 4C” is certainly less important than “no elite/superstar scorer”), but that doesn’t mean they aren’t important
Are the oilers a paper tiger, doomed not make it past the 1st round? Of course not. Would 2-3 more players make the difference between a conference finals appearance and a cup? I can’t say for certain, but today I feel the answer is closer to yes than no.
Lol. Love all the anti hh posts.
We dont just need to plug holes. We need to get rid of the rot! We need to get rid of:
1. JSkinner the horrible
2. Arvidson, who does not even seem to exist, cant piss a drop. Cant stay in the lineup.
3. Holey easy goal skinner who cant cover the top from his knees…. or appearently the bottom.
4. Kapanen who does more harm then good.
5. Janmark, who clearly has lost the plot, and is definitely not a centre.
6. Got rid of Ryan so thats good, cause hes too old.
7. Now we need to get rid of philp. Hes too young.
8. Kk doesnt pull the goalie enough or call timeouts early enough. And lines drai up with connor, which is a fireable offense. So lets can him.
9. And we need to undo every single move JJ made in the summer. And then fire him.
10. Not sure if KLowe is still employed, but hes the architect behind the continuance of “because Oilers” types moves through the generations.
Lol
Edmonton hasn’t won a division season title since Lowetide was still in high school.
DoPS better be looking at that boarding by Schenn. Premeditated and in the numbers. You want to talk about plays that should be out of the game, that’s far less of a hockey play than McDavid’s cross check
That would be Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg getting victimized my McDavid and Brown in OT.
But they were on the ice in overtime against Connor McDavid. What does that tell you?
That the Blues need better players?
Blues didn’t have anyone better.
The same thing that Connor Brown being on the ice in OT tells me – little.
That St Louis is a lousy NHL hockey team.
Hard to watch St. Louis. Broberg and Holloway are so good. Very noticeable in a positive way.
I agree, I thought Broberg had a really strong game defending McDrai and showed some flashes offensively.
I’m sure it will be tough for Holloway and Broberg to watch the Oilers in the playoffs….
Would like both on the roster (but not Bro at his cap hit – yet).
Who in the world needs players who order their agent to be traded away from the Oilers?
Yeah those poor Oilers barely touched the puck anytime either of them were on the ice.
Yep. But there’s a large percentage of posters here who will never admit it.
ST. LOOOOOOOOOOOSERS!! 🚨
#PlayLaBambaBaby
Love that both Holloway and Broberg were beaten for that OT goal.
-2 for Holloway and -1 for Broberg. Why the coach keeps wanting to trash their confidence with these matchups, I don’t understand
Serves them right, lol
We were not far from hearing “what the hell was Brown doing on the ice in OT?”.
That’s what I said too. It was KK’s fault.
Brownie point!
Connor and Connor, attorneys at law.
McDavid mad he didn’t score on the previous play.
Not a repeatable recipe in that game. Have to convert more early.
Elevate Skinner. Knock Arvidsson down.
That’s the easiest task there is. Dude is on his ass more often than not.
2 points up on Vegas WITH a game in hand.
A PP goal, a 6 on 5 goal, and a 3-on-3 overtime goal. Who needs to score at 5-on-5
The Oilers won the 5 on 5 battle last game and lost – tonight they decided to try something else.
Sweeeeeeet redemption!
Karma.
Satisfying W for this fan.
Ek wanted to change there but the bench wasn’t paying attention…
That’s an obvious penalty missed on 29. What a save by Skinner on Broberg
Oilers currently in sole possession of first place in the division with a game in hand. One point for now, and a chance to be 2 in the next few minutes.
I’m ready to pull the plug on Arvidsson. Get that contract off the books ASAP and find a winger who can finish
2x$4M looking worse week by week
Not like its got much term. Play it out. See how he does in playoffs, see how he does in year 2. I was really liking arvi, drai and podz earlier in the season.
It’s $4m in cap the team could use at this deadline to add another player and this off-season to resign that player or procure someone else.
He’s 31, injury prone, and might never score 20 goals again. If he’s nursing an injury they should let him get healthy and get a chance to save his roster spot before the deadline. He’s also one of the few players with a material cap hit (>$2M) without a no trade or Nmc who is underperforming. If a roster player needs to be moved out to make room for another contract, he should be near the top of the list.
He was gaining traction until his latest injury. Been invisible since. Also, he has played best with Drai if I’m not mistaken. The way the lineup is being deployed recently is sub-optimal.
Unfortunately that’s the issue w/Arvy. He just doesn’t stay healthy anymore.
He has a long history of scoring goals in this league.
No doubt he’s been disappointing but its also reasonable to expect a pop, or at least a decent heater, at some point.
I wonder how often refs sigh relief. Or if they honestly drink their own kookaid.
still waiting for the offside challenge
McLeon, from the Viking.
Destiny, is all.
That was delicious.
Screw you refs and Blues! Says Drai!!
I was just typing how I never feel like the Oilers are out of it as long as they’re within a goal in the last 2 minutes. Arguably the most lethal 6 on 5 team I’ve ever seen.
Really? To my memory, this team gives up the empty net goal against often and doesn’t score to tie it up often.
Finally a shift with Skinner in the #1 winger spot and they looked good.
Must be mistaken.
I hate to say it, because it’s not really feasible, but I can’t imagine Bowman but feeling immense pressure to upgrade goalering. Honestly, at his point, I’d give Pickard the reigns for a minute.
The goalie is not the issue tonight. Puck management in front of the goalie is a big problem.
Arvidsson can’t piss a drop offensively anymore.
I hope he ignores the fan chatter. That goal was not on Skinner. He blockered it to what have should have been to the corner and a safe area but it his Schenn in a great spot and he made a one touch play… tough luck
Huh? What game were you watching? Solid effort from Stu
I am not viewing the comments made in the 3rd period in real time so I’m not sure exactly when this was made but I can’t think of an instance in this game where the Oilers goaltending should have been questioned.
I didn’t hate the Ekholm call. The seven missed boarding calls on the other hand…
That’s the thing. If you make one soft call, you should be making more soft calls. The inconsistency just confuses the hell out of the players. This happened to the Oilers in that 7game series against the Kings a few years back. They had no idea what the line was. And the truth was that it was a moving target. That’s no way to ref..
THIIIIIIIIIISSSSSSSSSS
Summarizing!
O’Reilly garnered a pair of assists.
Nicholl scored for the first time in many moons, potting his 13th of the season.
Wakely earned an aPPle.
Akey did not dress.
Prospecting takes a break until Thor’s Day.
Saw this coming. Oilers had every opportunity to extend the lead.
So they can call Ekholm but not schenn for the boarding Hyman. These refs suck
So frustrating to watch this league. The call was completely ridiculous. Changed the game entirely. At least recognize the impact of your terrible call and call an actual penalty (on Hyman) you’re staring right at by the player hit clean (Schenn). Total bs.
Jinner not looking out of place at all, playing with the Glimmer Twins.
A manufactured call and then they let Schenn drill 2 guys from behind.
The boarding on Hyman would have given the oilers a PP, but that sequence ends in the 2-1 goal. What BS
League needs to give Vegas all the chances to retake division lead. Can’t let Oilers keep it.
Unpopular opinion but I think that’s a penalty on Ekholm for interference in today’s NHL. Refs missed a boarding call on Schenn however.
Boys falling apart…
Shots 29-19 Oil…what’s the score?
It seems a similar story
And now the rest of them stand around.
Goal suppression is not a winning strategy. This game should’ve been over by now.
Not necessarily. Goal suppression that leads to strong transitional play and actual conversion of chances is a valid strategy.
The tidbit missing from the Oilers’ game these days? Conversion of chances. They’re near the league in many of the offensive categories but conspicuously lag in sh%. Which is odd, considering the talent. Don’t think there’s a simple answer.
They shoot low too much. And lack patience.
Shooting under the glove and over the pad (17 hole?) is coached a lot these days.
I don’t disagree that they should snipe top cheddar more often when a goalie is going down.
They’re coaching guys to shoot borderline along the ice with wet noodle sticks that produce inaccurate, wobbly attempts.
It doesn’t work.
Mid height can be fine, but they generate chances that leave the top of the net open. Then they shoot low. That doesn’t work.
I’m going to trust that Connor McDavid and Leon McDavid in conjunction with the likes of Paul Coffey are able to determine the best way to score on NHL goalies and against NHL teams and their structures.
Considering the team’s talent level relative to sh% this year, it’s fair to question the process.
Critiquing a question with an appeal to authority (in spite of the results) is, well, weak sauce on a discussion board.
Can’t pin that goal on the zebras …
Hyman boarded, no call again. Goes the other way..
Knights lose in regulations to the Isles
Oilers looking like they might too…
As frustrating as the STL PP and goal are, the Oilers had tons of chances to make it a 2-0 game but couldn’t capitalize.
Can’t just blame the refs, for how much they’ve controlled play at 5v5, they need to get a goal at even strength. It’s not like Binnington has been standing on his head.
That is all true.
Doesn’t change the fact that a PP was awarded without an infraction that was scored on.
This apology ignores that a bad call can change the tone of any game. A bad call is a bad call. The score doesn’t matter but in a close game in the 3rd is atrocious.
It’s not on the team to run up the score to make themselves immune to the effects of a bad call. That’s an unreasonable expectation in a league with significant parity. The bounces matter. The bad calls matter even more.
Saying “the score doesn’t matter” right before “but in a close game in the third” is funny
I don’t think it’s unreasonable for a team to want to take the game out of the refs hands by building a larger margin for victory. You have to assume, given that refs are human and make mistakes occassionally, there’s a decent chance the refs will miss some calls on any given night, and that some of those calls might go against you.
Should refs be better? Absolutely, the refs union protects older refs who are clearly not cut out to be NHL Officials anymore and there should be a serious internal discussion about how the rulebook is called. But until that happens NHL teams have to take officiating as exogenous, and the best way to overcome any missed calls against you is to win games 5-1 not 2-1.
The “just win games 5-1 all them time” strategy. I wonder why they haven’t tried that one yet….
Obv it’s exogenous. We aren’t talking about what is – that’s self-evident – we’re talking about what should be.
And then they ignore a blatant boarding
Nurse really needs to stop with that method of puck watching.
No shortage of bad calls on a nightly basis in this league, but that one on Ekholm, in a 1-0 game in the 3rd, is near the tops in terms of terrible. Let’s kill it boys!