My goodness the current edition of the Edmonton Oilers could use a rocknrolla prospect like Miro Satan 30 years ago. The man flattened the AHL in a way Oilers fans will not see again.
The current Oilers have used most of their young assets (players and picks) in pursuit of older players. The ‘fringe’ roster spots usually passed along to youths are now occupied by men 30+ willing to sign a low contract in exchange for Stanley.
Soon, this management group is going to have to make a decision that impacts the department of youth. Here’s why.
The Athletic article today is all about Darnell Nurse’s passing gear and why he’s having such a fine season. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- January result: 2-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-15-4, 70 points in 52 games
I have tonight as a loss for Edmonton, mostly because teams have a hard time going 4-0-0 in the NHL, especially at this time of year. The Avalanche have a strange roster, with future Hall of Famers marbled into the roster alongside men you’ve never ever heard of, or barely know. What is notable is that everyone who plays for the Avs has a role and is useful in that role. It’s a smart hockey club, top to bottom.
MATTHEW SAVOIE
Edmonton does not possess its 2025 first-round selection, and NHL general managers for bottom feeders have less interest in the first rounder for 2026. Why? These GM’s are selling hope, and a 2026 first-round pick doesn’t come with a photo op and several sketches about the new hire’s skills and ETA for NHL action. The lesser picks (second and third) have some value, but if the Oilers are looking for a feature player (starting goalie, top 4D, top three centers and top four wingers—12 men in all) then Matthew Savoie is going to be the ask. Every time. Why?
The Oilers top-20 prospect list has some nice pieces, but Sam O’Reilly isn’t close to the NHL and Maxim Berezkin isn’t a lock to sign an NHL deal with the Oilers or any other team. Beau Akey is an intriguing name, but his profile (mobile puck-moving defenseman who is 6.0, 183) doesn’t fit every NHL team in terms of attractive target.
I think Savoie is the ask. So, if that’s the case, does Bowman make that trade? I’m a believer in a strong prospect pool and actively dislike the state of the Oilers prospect list currently. I think Bowman makes the trade if the return gives the team a strong chance for Stanley. Bowman owes it to the team, the fans, the owner. That’s the job.
A big day on the Lowdown, as we preview the Colorado Avalanche-Oilers game tonight, discuss the Super Bowl (what DO you consume during the game) and celebrate pitchers and catchers reporting one week (or less) away! I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
IF BOWMAN DOWSNT CALL UP SAVOIE TODAY AND NAME HIM CAPTAIN AND TRADE FOR OEL HE SHOULD BE FIRED FOR GROSS INCOMPETENCE.
Ooops. Too much coffee this morning.
Here’s a look at what the opposition’s bloggers are saying about tonight’s matchup.
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James Stefan to the ECHL.
He has a little stretch about a month ago where he seemed to be coming on but it was short lived and he’s been fairly non-impactful as a rookie pro.
I’m a million km away today in Seville, but I’m still getting PTSD every time I hear Miro Satan’s name as it reminds me of Sather’s worst trade by far. Might be one of the five worst Oiler moves ever (with Chiarelli responsible for the other four).
If we’re counting hirings/firings as “Oiler moves” hiring Tambellini has to make the Top 5 …
Lines this morning per Tony B:
Arvy/McDavid/Hyman
Skinner/Drai/Podz
Janmark/Nuge/Brown
Perry/Henrique/Kap
Ek/Bouch
Nurse/Klingberg
Kulak/Emberson
Skinner
Pickard
———————–
No surprise on no changes with Philp back with the Condors.
That’s a solid line up. Thumbs up to that.
Pretty much the optimal deployment of our lineup. Nuge at 3C was inevitable and perhaps now it’s here as our new standard.
Glad to see Nuge as 3C and Arvidsson as 1LW.
3rd line is definition of low-event/shot suppression – would be great if Brown can get hot and cash on some chances while playing with two defensively-conscious linemates. I like Janmark and Brown together (particularly on the PK), but they need to start generating more offense.
I would suggest that the job includes looking past the current season and ascertaining if the trade makes sense without disregard for the next few season.
McDavid is only 28 years old and Drai only 29 (and showing no signs of slowing down). The likes of Nuge and Hyman and Ekholm are aging but the high end core of this roster (add Bouchard) will be priming for a while. The likes of Arvidsson and Skinner are on shorter term contracts and can be replaced in free agency in a rising cap world.
This team should compete for Stanley for years and Matt Savoie on an ELC for two more years will be massive – he could be a 60 point 2RW.
I’m not positive I trade Savoie for any rental, even Marchand.
Arvidsson & Skinner are place holders for Savoie. I’m not sure I would trade Savoie for Marchand. But I would certainly trade Skinner & Arvidsson for Marchand
lol there is no possible world where Boston trades Marchand for Arvi and Skinner.
LOL Skinner has been looking like a revelation lately & Arvidsson is a similar type of player to Marchand, much younger too. Never say never. Might work, throw in some draft picks. Who knows?
Let’s win the cup now, worry about tomorrow later. The Oilers will also be able to spend to the cap and attract free agents
I asked Hart about the ability to trade the 2025 1st round pick (and locking in the 2026 pick to Philly with no trade protection) and the response:
Trent Miner is one of those players I’ve never heard of but, given Blackwood started last night in Calgary, the Avs likely start in net tonight, for the third time.
Rookie backup goalie?
Cue a Vezina-level performance.
#becauseoilers
That must be what the Avs are hoping for, otherwise they might have played him last night in Calgary.
I think teams generally go all out in the first of a back to back, trying to bank points while playing fresh.
1) Savoie has to be close to untouchable given the state of the Oilers pipeline (and the fact they gave up a good, controllable asset to get him).
2) Looking below the first tranche of targets at the deadline, some intriguing names that might not require the Oilers to part with Savoie, including some struggling players. Buying low on a player who needs a change in scenery might be the play.
TOR: Nick Robertson – 23, making under $0.9M, RFA until 2029. Undersized young winger who can score. Down year and not doing well in Toronto under Berube. LW, but has played both sides this year. Not sure what the acquisition cost would be, but if Toronto is ready to move on, the upside is intriguing.
VAN: Carson Soucy – 30, signed for one more year @ $3.25M. Struggling stay-at-home type, LH, but playing the RH side. Pushed down the depth chart by VAN’s acquisition of a 3rd Petterson, actively being shopped. Not super exciting but he’s big (6’5″, 212) and might be able to help on the PK. If Van retains 50%, at the very least a Josh Brown upgrade at a $1.65M cap hit.
CHI: Ryan Donato, 28, pending UFA @ $2M. Lefty who can play C/LW although I think he was 1RW in the game against EDM. In the midst of a career year (51, 16-16-32, 13-10-23 @ 5v5). Will be buying an asset at its peak, but the cost may not be too dear. Does a 3rd Rd pick get it done? Does throwing in an NHL/AHL tweener that CHI can take a look at ( Phil Kemp?) convince CHI to retain 50%?
BUF: Henri Jokiharju, 25, RHD, pending UFA ($3.1M). Woodmoney numbers don’t look to bad, traditional counting stats (1-3-4 in 38) not so much. Klingberg insurance? Not sure how much/if he’s an upgrade on Emberson. He’s on Finland’s 4N roster, might be a player to watch. Any way to get the player without giving up Savoie?
PIT: Matt Grzelcyk, 31, LHD pending UFA ($2.75M). Playing 2nd pairing minutes with Karlsson, not sure what his usage was before Petterson was traded to VAN. Another player in the middle of a career year (highest TOI and point total of his career so far). Probably a higher acquisition cost (and more sure thing) than Jokiharju, although based on age the former may be more likely to be extended by the acquiring team.
BUF: James Reimer, $1M, positive goals saved above expected (not hating, but that’s more you can say about Skinnard (Picker?). Some cheap, experienced goalie insurance wouldn’t be a bad thing.
If there’s any way to add a F and D without giving up Savoie or the 2026 first, a healthy lineup could look like:
91-97-18
53-29-92
33-93-Robertson/Donato
13-19-90
28, 42
14-2
25-Jokiharju
27-49
36, 51
3) I don’t mean to close the book on Klingberg with the above, just threw same names at the page as an illustration. If he’s dynamite and obviates the need for any changes to the Top 4 at the deadline, great!
4) I think G6 of the 21-22 SCF was the last game that Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen line played together – crazy to think about.
5) COL got flamed for the Rantanen trade, and while I wasn’t a fan of the move, Necas is an interesting fit with MacKinnon, they’re such a fast team with those two in the lineup together. Do you think the teams had any heads-up the cap was increasing as much as it was before the official announcement? If not, I wonder how the significant cap increase would have affected the negotiations with Rantanen, and if they could’ve found a number they were both comfortable with. Probably not, but who knows.
Ryan Donato might be a solid depth addition, if he actually can play all three forward positions. That’s the kind of versatility Edmonton should be looking for at the TDL.
The other thing is they should still want a defenseman with the ability to play both sides, another Kulak would be spectacular.
So would another Stu Skinner to backup Stu Skinner, because if Stu Skinner gets injured, he can’t be replaced with Calvin Pickard & Olivier Rodrique for any length of time.
I can tell you that Buffalo fans are pretty much universally unhappy with Joker, and would be ecstatic to get a 3rd back. I don’t know what management thinks of him, but the coaching staff has him on the 3rd pair on a team starving for right-shot defensemen. Could you get him without giving up Savoie? Yes, yes you could. In fact I don’t think Adam’s would even bring up Savoie’s name.
If that’s the case, then I think that’s absolutely the type of buy-low addition to be looking at. Stetcher and a 5th (or 4th) for Joker at 50% retention? Sign me up (and I like Stetcher!)
This blog has made my morning rhum cream and coffee even better every morning in Ocho Rios.
If they’re considering trading Savoie, which I doubt, firstly they need to see what he is at the NHL level. This could work two-fold because at the same time they can showcase him. If he performs well enough to prove he can be a fixture on the Oilers for years to come, there’s no way he’s used as trade bait, if not it may even hamper his trade value, though he could still be part of a trade for a difference maker. He may in fact prove to be equal or better than a veteran player already on the roster, who might find himself as trade bait instead. They need a looksee first. He might be Miro Satan.
I also think blowing a bunch of assets at the deadline to try and win one cup is a poor strategy.
A GM has to give their team as many chances as possible because so many things can go wrong in the playoffs.
Thats why young and cheap players are important. It ensures the cup window stays open for longer.
Agreed. The thing is flashy offensive adds at the deadline don’t often mean Cups. Guentzel didn’t put the Canes over, we’ll see about Rantanen
Adds that fix deeper weaknesses do make a difference, and they don’t ‘have’ to be expensive. Coleman Goodrow made a big difference to the Lightning, as did Manson to the Avs
The reason to me is quality depth is needed, enough grit, but if you have trouble scoring the issue might be more than the players can’t finish or aren’t good enough
Defense wins championships. I think they should be focusing on adding to their depth on the blueline & their depth between the pipes, as I’ve said before. Offense starts from good defense.
Forwards still play defense. You should watch Hossa or Bergeron.
Yes, they do. I’ll keep an eye out for Hossa & Bergeron.
I think about this often. Seems rare that the big fish acquisition(s) is what puts a team over the top at the deadline en route to a Cup. It’s more often the peripheral adds that shore up depth.
This team has the highest ceiling of any in the league. They need to raise the floor.
As much as I’d like to see Alex Tuch or Brock Nelson acquired, I think it’s likely that players along the lines of a Nedeljkovic, a Sissons and a Dumoulin (or similar) that marble the roster with enough quality that keeps EDM coming in waves with every shift.
Anyone see that Noah dobson is available? I don’t know how or who would go out- apparently the ask is a young scorer (maybe savoie?), but if bowman could pull some magic here could you imagine a d corps of
Elkholm-bouchard
Nurse-dobson
Kulak-emberson/Klinberg
That looks like a championship d to me. Would you do it? If I can talk to dobson and get a guarantee of a contract extension I pull the trigger on that all day. His contract is only $4m till the end of the season so maybe you could get retention and he’s currently on ltir so we could still have some space to bring in someone else by the deadline
I have trouble seeing a go forward plan to fit him in next year*, but that would be an amazing top-4.
*Although I keep seeing people online trying to fit Rantanen in next season, so I suppose it’s doable.
Came here to talk about Dobson. Lots of Isles fans seem to have the same view of Dobson as many Oilers fans have of Bouchard – great on offence, not great on D. Since he’s been hurt, their defensive game has become more solid. I haven’t looked into the fancies to see if that’s actually true or not.
It would be fun to think about but both Bouchard and Dobson are going to cost and I just don’t see how we can do it.
Respectfully, I don’t see any way that the Islanders move on from Dobson for anything less than an established top 6 forward under-25 with significant upside. They’re in a playoff race and he’s coming off a 70 point season. He’s having a down year and young defensemen don’t always develop in a straight line. There’s no way they move on from Dobson if the centerpiece of the return is a 21 y/o under a point-per-game in the AHL (and I’m high on Savoie).
Notwithstanding what the cro-magnon segments of each fan base think of the Dobson/Bouchard respectively, Bowman/Lou are smart enough to know what they have in each player.
If they’d do Savoie for Dobson straight-up I’d accept before they had a chance to change their mind/get a psych eval.
My hope for playoffs for our forward group (without an add from outside. Keep powder dry for DMan upgrade please).
Hyman.McDavid.Arvidsson
Skinner.Draisatl.Podkolzin
Kane.Nuge.Savoie
Janmark.Henrique.Brown
Nyander.Ryan.Perry
Size, speed, some d conscience and scoring on every line.
Am I the only one that thinks Kane is done as an impact player in the NHL? Power forward on the wrong side of 30, coming off multiple surgeries and will have almost a year off from playing.
No. You are not.
Do you not want to find out? Maybe he is, but maybe he isn’t.
I don’t think anyone is saying “trade or move on from Evander Kane”. Pretty sure he can’t even be moved until he’s off LTIR, which won’t be until after the trade deadline …
Him returning to form as a Top-6 player is certainly a risk. He might be an expensive crash-and-bang bottom 6 winger when he returns. Part of why I think adding another winger who can cash chances at the deadline is a wise idea.
Worst case scenario – Kane isn’t great, but you insured against that by acquiring a forward who can score. Best case scenario – more depth scoring.
Playing bottom six left wing isn’t exactly occupying an impact position.
He scored 24 last year while looking like a fella needing multiple surgeries, I have faith after seeing Klingberg look serviceable that Kane will benefit from the new and improve surgical world.
If he’s healthy enough to play he’ll make an impact, just maybe not a scoring impact* or (more importantly) an outscoring impact.
*He didn’t injure the hands/wrist this time though, so maybe this is less of a concern?
If he’s only a gritty bottom six forward, Edmonton can use one of those in the playoffs.
Who are you arguing with that’s trying to get rid of Kane? No one is saying that lol.
Rafa just raised the question of what he will be when he’s back
Savoie might be NHL ready right now. He might be able to make an impact on the top 6, right now.
He has two full seasons left of his ELC and his value on that contract to the Oilers is massive.
I guess he’s not untouchable but I’d be remiss to move that asset unless it’s a slam dunk with term.
You’ve viewed Savoie probably the most around here that can give me a unbiased take on this player. I liked McLeod but what do you see in Savoie? I know he isn’t being zoomed on the PP. Does Savoie have the skill, speed snd smarts to possibly flourish with Leon?
Shouldn’t the team learn from its mistake with Holloway and maybe test drive Savoie before trading him for another complementary tricenarian?
Also, am really hoping the Oilers really test Miner if he draws in tonight in goal. Rookie goalie with one prior NHL start. Both of the top 2 lines should be potting 5 on 5 goals.
The thing is, Savoie is probably better right now than many trade targets.
If he was on any mid tier team he would be playing top six in the NHL.
Prospectional!
A busy Friday with just Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Rest today–no billable hours for them. Everyone else toils.
With Day-man’s win yesternight, he became Flint’s all-time winningest goalie. Of course, Flint isn’t known as a goalie factory: Day is the only goaler in team history to be selected in the NHL draft.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Peterborough (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 5:15 p.m.
All times are two times and are also Dalemead time.
Should add a couple of good arrows for O’Reilly:
– Tied for 2nd in OHL +/- with a +38.
– He is 56.2% on the dot this season.
No way I trade Savoie unless the return is a relatively young player signed for some term.
A trade around Savoie for Marchand would cripple this team going forward.
I agree on the surface that we need a strong prospect pool. But if Marchand gives us a legitimate boost to win the Cup (and he does), why wouldn’t we try? For this year, Marchand is considerably more valuable than Savoie.
We assume the Stanley window is 5 years but we don’t know.
And with the rising cap, we can continue to add pieces around the core for the next 5 years in the absence of great prospects.
There is more movement of 22-23 year olds in the league than I can ever recall so we can restock talent in real time. As they did this year.
This is the kind of thinking that shrinks a cup contenders window.
Sure there are young pros available every year, but it takes assets to acquire them. It took McLeod and a draft pick to acquire Savoie.
The Oilers already gave away Broberg and Holloway and now you want to trade our last significant young asset (Savoie) for a rental (Marchand)?
However, the goal is to win the cup now.