There are songs you hear that stay with you for a lifetime. James Taylor’s Fire and Rain is such a song. The guitar, melody and Taylor’s strong vocals are exceptional, and create a warm feeling at the beginning of the record. As the words tap in to your soul, there is a realization that this is a song about grievous life events, overwhelming sadness and desperation.
Taylor’s voice is calm, strong, exceptional. The words are so damn sad, especially so since they came from such a young person. There is a stark difference between the relaxed, back porch delivery of the song and the devastating lyrics.
A lifetime of pain in a gorgeous pop song delivered by a voice I now know almost as well as my own. Sometimes in life, a song can flatten you. Fire And Rain does it every time.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- January result: 2-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-17-4, 72 points in 55 games
Yesterday I wrote “I have tonight as a loss for Edmonton, mostly because teams have a hard time going 4-0-0 in the NHL, especially at this time of year” and it happened just that way. The Oilers were poor last evening, heartbeats accelerating but the minds were at the airport.
This team has this kind of effort in them, and if this group of Oilers fails to win a Stanley Cup, indifferent play when the result isn’t yet final will be chronicled. Some may blame luck or an avalanche, I’m prepared to blame it on malaise.
A most disappointing effort last night, Edmonton Oilers. Your detractors have new ammunition today, this morning.
THE NUMBERS
The Oilers didn’t put much effort into the game when it was on the line, so I’m not inclined to waste much of my typewriter ribbon on specifics. Leon Draisaitl is Paul Bunyan, Corey Perry is a phenomenal hockey player carving an incredible career.
Illness may have been a factor, but these Oilers head to the break after delivering a pitiful performance. The 2006-07 Edmonton Oilers were dead in the water every night, beginning with the anthem. That very poor team gave effort for coach Craig MacTavish. I believe Kris Knoblauch deserves the same kind of effort. Perhaps we’ll see it again from these Oilers after the break.
FIRE AND RAIN
The Oilers today are a little like that song Fire And Rain I talked about at the beginning of this article. The words and music are lovely, but the inviting feel of the song does not match the words.
Edmonton’s hockey club is like that. Smooth as silk, glorious thrills delivered so often you dare not look away. And yet, the hard work of winning sometimes lapses, and that may well be the Achilles heel of this organization during this era of hockey.
Blame it on the goalie, blame it on the defense, blame it on malaise. No matter. Someone should ask the 1962-72 Chicago Blackhawks about Bobby Hull’s slap shot, Stan Mikita’s puck wizardry, Glenn Hall’s (and then Tony Esposito’s) brilliant netminding, and the exceptional defense delivered by Pierre Pilote and then Bill White.
Then ask them (those still living) if they would give back all of the hardware and accolades for just one (more) Stanley Cup.
Inside last night’s game is the key to the Oilers future path. Whatever inspired such a dull performance needs to be fired into the sun. These Oilers haven’t won a damn thing. That could be their legacy.
About Darnell Nurse and an impressive season.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6118445/2025/02/07/oilers-defenceman-darnell-nurse-passing/
A little credited fact about Nurse: he never seems to get injured.
Except in playoffs
He doesn’t miss games but, over the last 2-3 years, has played injured and limited quite a bit.
I am still in China, so I haven’t watched any games over the past 2 weeks, but my sense sense of the needs of this team hasn’t changed since December and neither have my targets. I would cross out Alex Tuch, he would too expensive, but my other targets are:
Pageau -This season his advanced stats are as good or better than his best years. He would be an excellent 3C on this playoff run. Most won’t like it, but I propose RNH is part of the trade, with 25% retention on JGP’s salary.
Hathaway – He is an extremely useful bottom 6 winger, with size, speed and 5v5 scoring, plus PK acumen. He comes with 1 additional year left, but he would be an excellent addition to this roster.
Dumoulin – Size, experience, can play RD. He would be a massive improvement on Stecher and Brown in the #7D slot and would come cheap. I would try to get him with 25% retained.
Jonathan Quick – Experience and decent numbers. I don’t know where he stacks up vs Skinner or Pickard’s numbers this season, but I think he could really help Skinner, as well as add an experienced vet with pedigree. This would have to be a swap with Pickard and retention on Quick, since Pick has an extra year on his contract. I thought about hanging on to Pickard, but there is no way he gets through waivers. Gibson is over-rated, unreliable (injuries) and too expensive, Vejmelka is home-grown and easily Utah’s best goaltender. Why would they trade him? And if so, the cost would be too rich for the Oilers and likely would have to include Stu. And why would Utah do that?
Savoie. He is the missing top 6 winger. After 4 Nations he needs to be on 97’s starboard wing, Hyman on the left. Give him a few games to see what he can bring.
Hyman – McDavid – Savoie
Skinner – Draisaitl – Perry/Podkholzin
Arvidsson – Pageau – Brown
Janmark – Henrique – Hathaway
Kapanen
*Kane ready for playoffs as Pageau’s LW and Arvidsson goes back to RW.
It seems that the jury is still out on Klingberg. Not sure what goes down there, certainly he needs a few more games. Perhaps a swap for Connor Murphy at TDL if he is clearly not working out? I don’t much else for RHD options.
Some interesting names/ideas.
JGP is on my list (has been for years, actually). Ditto Dumoulin — he’s not a sexy name, but he brings a lot of what we’d need depth wise, and wouldn’t cost a ton. I brought up Quick the other day and many didn’t seem to like it, but you and I have the same line of thinking. He’s not going to challenge Stu for his spot, but he’d be a strong supplement. Reimer is another solid vet, and having a good year on a poor team.
Hathaway is someone I’d overlooked, going to add him to my list.
If you can get nhl66 (dot) ir to work for you, they allow games to get replayed (I think) up to 24 hours after broadcast. Not sure if that helps or what the local restrictions would be like in that regard.
I have everything on PVR, so I have a few games to watch when I get back.
I’m going to China for the first time this year, unfortunately it will be in late May/early June … Hopefully I can find a way to watch the playoffs!
I plan to retire in about 4 years and we are probably going to winter in China. Apple TV with an NHL subscription is what I’ve landed on as the way to watch.
Also, I just tried the “nhl66” address that BIAGJ posted above and it works.
However, to watch a full game you will need to be able verify via SMS that you are a person, so that appears to be the only catch.
Also note, I do not have a VPN, so you won’t need anything extra to access this website, from what I am seeing.
Condors come out on a fast break – over to Dineen who drags and shoots but it goes off a defenders stick, breaks the defenders stick and goes right back to Dineen for a back hand tap in.
3-0
Savoie with the secondary.
I swear that was off-side and likely would have come back if there was review.
Question for you OP: You’re watching Hamblin. Seems that now that he’s healthy he’s generating offense at higher levels than ever before in the AHL.
Offense was the issue in his previous NHL recalls, but could he be an under the radar option for the bottom 6/4th line? He had good two way awareness, and I want to say better boots than Philp. Last year and actually went to the net and scored in the NHL but no one talks about him.
Hamblin is finally healthy and in peak game form and, yes, he’s on a heater right now.
With that said, he’s the same player he’s been the last few years and I suspect that, if called up to the NHL, he’s be the same 4th liner we saw in the past. Serviceable to eat some minutes but i think the team is looking for a higher ceiling.
Its not out of the question that a call-up would be Hamblin over Philp though.
Savoie and Philp start the PK (although it was PP2 for Chicago starting). Solid pressure by Savoie on half boards forcing a bad pass for a clear.
Top two lines just coming in waves.
Carrick with a massive hit behind his own net and the puck gets transitioned by Philp out and in and the trio of Griffith/Philp/Perreault goes to work – Perrault with a deft backhand pass across the crease and Phil buries for the 2-0.
Hamblin stopped on a breakaway and then robs Savoie net front and then Savoie with an absolute bull of a puck battle behind the net – gets it in front and Hamblin buries the 1-0.
What a battle by Savoie.
Kane has that superstar usually only ability to play at elite level without a minute of preparation.
As soon as the season began I wanted to see Evander Kane as far away from the team as possible so he could start in the playoffs fresh. And saving cap space.
Right now this certainly looks like a possibility.
This assessment is based on…..?
Faith.
McDavid’s carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders right now; is only human, and has just been freaking suspended and now must forget all about everything and go play in a tournament.
Leon on the other hand gets to put his feet up and enjoy a midseason holiday.
Here is my contest: Everyone choose which player will score:
more points.
more goals.
Between the next game and the end of the regular season. Ignoring all points/goals scored to date. “A fresh start”.
My vote goes to McDavid/McDavid.
Will calculate all of the responses in the next 24 hours and see whether or not it’s interesting enough for the Lowetide fraternity. Thank you for your cooperation.
Decent first period. Dustin Tokaraki with the 5 best saves of the period. Some point blank chances on Petrov, Wright, etc.
Dont think the Condors gave up a single high danger attempt.
Summarizing!
Fischer, Akey, and Wakely each procured an assist.
Stonehouse didn’t earn any soup but did pot the shootout winner in Round 4 for Peterborough. He gets a donut instead–plain, though.
Berry recorded neither soup nor a donut.
Demko left the game today with a mystery injury – shaking his left leg.
Petrov back for the Condors tonight.
Wanner hopeful for next week (per coach).
Greetings Lowtideans from a cruise ship heading to St Lucia. I follow the Oilers through this blog so thank you all for posting. James Taylor is the best. Saw him in concert a few years back and he was amazing. So the day before our flight left I came down with a bad head cold (which I rarely get) After over a week still feeling a bit crappy. I only mention this because there are several different strains of colds/flu’s going around and it can take weeks to get over. I am speculating a number of Oilers have picked up bugs that may be difficult to recover from. It could explain their poor play for the last few games??? Hopefully the 2 week break makes a difference!! Please keep the game time posts coming!!
Wife and I had our honeymoon in St Lucia. Gorgeous small island with clear water and was our top choice because it’s got both beaches and rain forest. If you have time and it’s offered grab a car and cruise the highway, particularly around Castries. I expect the cruise stops in the North instead at Rodney Bay, so it’d take some work on your part. Their local beer is good, and their rum is even better.
We were young and stupid and did not know how to actually honeymoon, so did non-honeymoon activities like a bike tour and scale Gros Piton.
I will add to the growing list of voices who feels the Oilers may have to take a look at Gibson, half retained. I don’t think they can afford not to look at another option to pair up with Skinner, and Gibson – who’s on a bit of a renaissance run – may fit the bill as someone who has a long history of great numbers, and who could shine playing behind a significantly better team.
After last night, Skinner fell to 61st in the league in goals saved above expected, Pickard to 74th. I recognize that not everything can be pinned on goaltending, but time after time, our goalies aren’t starting the game on time, and the Oilers are playing from behind. That is mentally taxing and may add to the team feeling off. Just my hunch.
Slice and dice the numbers all we want, everyone outside the market sees it as well. With no upgrades, the Oilers will enter the playoffs with quite arguably the weakest goaltending of all 16 teams. I looked at the standings, I can’t see any other team who I say we’d have an advantage on in net.
In a Cup or bust year, I think Bowman has to pull a MacT. Go get some insurance in net, your team needs it.
If you look into the splits, Gibson’s numbers nosedive annually after Christmas.
The guy has an undeserved reputation based on a small track record, from ages ago.
Gibson is awful.
Maybe he plays better in front of a good team, who knows.
But I wouldn’t even consider it at 50%, would have to have another team take half again before I’d entertain the idea. Even then, I’d be far more wary compared to someone like Nedeljkovic or Reimer.
His numbers are significantly better than Skinners this year and he hasn’t faded after Christmas albeit with a lighter work load. I think it’s a good idea. If not Gibson, then who?
Can someone comment about the differences between MoneyPuck, which has Stu at -1.7 goals saved above expected and Picks at -4.2, vs Evolving Hockey which has Stu at 4.74 GSAx and Picks at -4.22? The two are consistent for Pickard but a 6.44 swing for Stu.
Here are Skinners GSAx 5v5:
Evolving Hockey 3.94 (non adjusted)
Natural Stat Trick 2.38 (non adjusted)
Money Puck 1.1 (flurry adjusted)
Money Puck uses something called flurry adjustment which provides lower counts in expected goals. As GSAx = xGA – GA, the lower xGA estimate produced by flurry adjustment will provide a lower GSAx. There is no option to remove flurry adjustment.
Evolving Hockey uses venue and score adjustment on the their site by default and provides options for non adjusted stats.
Natural Stat Trick has score adjustment as an option option on their site.
This is a good article comparing some of the differences of the models.
Thank-you!
If using Money Puck, filter for 25 games. Then look at GSAx. Skinner ranks 26th out of 34 starting goaltenders 5v5. This is a more fair ranking.
I know John Gibson isn’t very popular around here but he is quietly having a really good season as a 1b for a bad team in Anaheim. What would it cost for the Ducks to retain half of his 6.4 million dollar salary? Gibson at 3.2 million for this year and next with Skinner could be a pretty good tandem for a good price.
$3.2MM for this year, and the next two seasons, is a big no from me.
There are better goalies out there for less cost, both cap and assets.
I wonder on making trades this year, is it worth it to upgrade our D if they’re not supreme? Unless we make a Noah Dobson trade the upgrade will likely not live up to expectations. Why not instead expend assets like we did with Ekholm? Trading for an up and coming Lucas Dostal would be a great target, 4th in goals saved above expected with 16.5 which is better than Gibson (14.6 although he’s played less games). The ask would be A LOT but better to lock in a good goaltender now than have to keep upgrading the same weakness over and over again. How many years have we needed a goalie/right shot defenceman? An alternative discussed would be Vejmelka with 11.4 goals saved above expected. He also has a higher save% with .910 vs .908, so if the ask is much less maybe better. The point is trade for youth, how many veterans must we be disappointed with before we learn this lesson? Colorado gets it, Florida gets it, Carolina to an extent. We can’t win if every year we aquire a guy that needs replacing in 2 seasons or less.
Why would ANA trade their young and cost controlled Dostal who is expected to take over for the declining and expensive Gibson?
Is this the year that Vejmelka takes a step forward relative to his previously established NHL results? How many assets are a fair price to find out?
Everthing good about him for us is good for Anaheim. My point was mainly to illustrate the kinds of targets we should have (no Brad Marchand type deals). If I was a GM I would still take a look at the ask whatever it is. We should take a look at offer sheeting him if we can.
Realisically Vejmelka should definitely be the trade target. Assets wisecould we steal him for St. Louis’ second plus a tweener. We still need a D a defenceman man. Downside of losing Broberg and Holloway we have no young players to swing a big trade.
Definitely? I can’t see a reasonable argument, just like John Gibson, that suggests he’s the goalie that’s going to bring us to the promised land. Gibson’s last good season was six years ago, and Vejmelka hasn’t had a good season until now.
There are better bets out there, and they’ll probably cost less.
Karel Vejmelka gets touched up for 6 goals on 37 shots as Utah gets pumped 7-3 by the Hurricanes.
I don’t think this player would cost much to acquire (eg Rodrigue + a 3rd), and I think it would be wise to have goaltending “depth”, especially in the form of a ‘25 UFA who has every reason to want to steal the starter’s job from Stu Skinner.
At worst it allows Skinner more rest leading up to the playoffs, or more likely could mean a rare tandem for at least the first few playoff series’.
It would result in having to waive Pickard but at the TDL he probably clears. Cal Pickard isn’t in anyone’s plans. Can return as a black ace.
I don’t propose this as a damning indictment of Stu, whom I’m a big fan of, but as a sensible insurance in a year where The Cup is definitely within grasp.
I really doubt Pickard clears waivers.
Is there team that is going to keep him on their NHL roster?
What’s the over/under on performance relative to acquisition cost for someone like Vejmelka vs Reimer or Nedeljkovic?
I’d wager all three would be an upgrade on Pickard (who doesn’t seem to get much love for his results, all the guy does is win). But if you want to bet on one giving solid starts/relief in the playoffs, who would you choose? I’d lean towards Reimer, or Ned, myself.
Ned has been up and down in the AHL with mixed results and Reimers too old.
Vej is bigger 6’4” and is playing his 4th consecutive NHL season where he’s outperformed his counterpart.
One game this year and last is hardly up and down.
Reimer is getting up there, but as a back up he’d be more than fine. In fact, his stats and AAV probably make him the most attractive option of the lot. His numbers in the playoffs (one game with SJS aside) are more than encouraging that he’s the type who can raise his game on the biggest stage.
That’s simply not true.
Ingram played more games last year, and had better GAA and SV%. The year prior, Vej was the starter with more games played, but Ingram had better GAA and SV%. Before that, Vej played twice as many games as Scott Wedgewood and had drastically worse GAA and SV%.
He’s actually never outplayed his counterpart.
I believe the team will play better after the break, they have to, this last stretch might get them the Pacific, but they will be hard pressed winning in playoffs like that
As for goalies, since Nov 1 of the teams I’m tracking per NST the Oilers are 5th in 5v5 HDSV% at .829. They are tied for 10th in 5v5 SV% at .911. This matches what I see, they tend to struggle more with plays that aren’t ranked HD – weakish goals against
It’s not insurmountable, but I agree with Lansky, if they had top goaltending everyone else would be playing for 2nd place
Of course any team has to play well to success post season, and have enough health, for the Oilers this season they are going to have to tighten up and be able to finish somewhat better, to mitigate the breakdowns they always make, and any easy goals the goalies give up. So many games have been tighter than they needed to be, because they aren’t cashing their top level shot metrics, let teams hang in too much
Since Nov 1 they are tied for most 5v5 GF three ways with the the Stars and Caps with 101, and are 2nd to the Jets in HDGF at 55. However they are tied for 10th in 5v5 GA with the Avs, and are 5th in 5v5 HDGA with 37
There are a fair few teams that would be very hard playoff outs this season as it stands, be it better goalie, better special teams, better defense, better finishing, not much margin for error
I think the last words say it all “not much margin for error”.
And right now the Oilers have a few areas with error that could cost them in a 7 game series.
Or a shorter series
If SB goes out and get a goalie, is there a market for Pickard, assuming we’re keeping Skinner?
Puljujarvi on unconditional waivers for purposes of contract termination.
When a guy has washed out of that many cities…there’s a common denominator here.
I was in Helsinki a few years ago and had an interesting chat with a local Finn in a bar. (This guy did not fit the stereotype of Finnish reserve.) I asked him why Puljujarvi wasn’t succeeding in the NHL.
He didn’t have any complete answers, but he did note that it was weird that Puljujarvi didn’t learn English.
70% of Finns speak English, and JP knew he was headed for the NHL. Perhaps it speaks to a preparedness issue? To a mindset of doing things his own way? To general maturity?
I wish him a long and happy career in the Liiga. (He scored PPG in 2019-20 in Karpat.) There are worse fates than coming home, making an upper-middle-class living, playing a game you love.
I recall Puljujarvi’s english being hotly debated on this site at the time.
I think at the time the Oilers org. were getting dragged for not helping JP adjust to life in North America, including not getting him an en english tutor.
But if I recall correctly, Jesse did try learning some english in school in Finland and did have a tutor of sorts when he did come to Canada, but sounded like he just struggled with the language.
From Mike Sullivan on the Josh Getzoff show after he got waived in early January.
“That’s where Jesse and I have had points of contention,” Sullivan said. “And a lot of it just boils down to details. You know, positioning in the defensive zone, what you’re supposed to do off of face offs win or loss, rush coverage when you’re tracking back into our end zone, what our rules are, awareness and recognition away from the puck, things of that nature. Those are just examples of some of the conversations that I’ve had with Jesse. And then usually I have him sit with Mike Vellucci, and we show him examples of what we’re talking about. So he has a clear understanding of what the expectations are and why we make the decisions that we make. And as I say to players all the time, we don’t always expect them to agree with the decisions that I make as the head coach, but my hope is that they respect the decisions that I make as the head coach. I try to go to great lengths to explain the whys so that players have a clear understanding of where they stand and what they have to do in order to improve their circumstance.”
Just never learned to play NHL hockey. Lots of tools … no toolbox. Same as Yakupov; they can put up counting stats in less competitive euro leagues, but can’t replicate that in the smaller NHL rinks where the game is played at a much faster pace.
It’s no ones fault … these are 17 and 18 year old kids in their draft years. Who knows what kind of men they will mature into, and whether they will have the drive to work on their games on and off the ice that allows them to parlay the tools that got them drafted so high to match their draft day prognostications.
This is why I put little stock into online scouts lists of which organizations have the best prospect pool. Its entertainment, but when you look back at those articles from a few years ago, most of those highly touted prospects have failed to have impactful NHL careers.
Nothing happens with him on the ice could of easily been turned into a shutdown checking winger or even better a centre for the next decade. Jesse recieved some bad advice by his money hungry agent and it cost him. He’s not the first or the last to get hoodwinked by their council.
Ignoring the grammatical issues, you say this sort of thing as if it has substance. “easily have been turned in to a shutdown winger “. Really? Three teams multiple coaches numerous teammates some even speaking his own language and yet… so perhaps “easily” is wrong. How about “bad advice from a money hungry agent”? This is what resulted in him washing out from three organizations, failing to gain anything from those around him about how to actually play hockey at the NHL level? The reality is no one certainly no one here has the answer. In the end a fellow with some hockey skills and physical advantages that made him attractive to scouts just couldn’t make it. Any “pronouncements” like you comment are just so much empty air.
It’s popular around here to talk about ruining prospects, but at the end of the day nobody is handed a job in the NHL, players have to find a way to earn a spot, and every season hundreds of new players enter the stream through the draft
You have to do something valuable, and if you can’t score your pants off it involves defensive and physical play. Same at it ever was
Jesse chose to keep his agent’s counsel instead of listening to the now many excellent coaches that he has had – McLelland, Tippett, Woodcroft, Brind’Amour and Sullivan – or to learn the nuances of NHL hockey from the many great players that he has played with – McDavid, Draisaitl, Aho, Crosby, Malkin.
Read Sullivan’s quote that I posted above … they were trying to teach him how to be a “shutdown checking winger” … but they couldn’t get through to him at all. Despite all the talent there, they decided to move on.
Some highly drafted players will come to the realization that they need to reinvent themselves into checkers (e.g. Marty Reasoner) making close to league minimum … these players do it because they would rather hang on to their dreams at the very bottom rung of the NHL, then be safely on the top rung of a lesser league.
But many are just unable to accept a lesser role (e.g. MA Pouliot, Schremp) after being the star player for most of their lives, and instead end up having nice careers in lesser Euro leagues playing higher up in the batting order, while continuing to make a good living.
The NHL is a hard league. Scouts can’t know how these kids will fare when faced with this adversity 2-4 years after the player is drafted.
That’s why magic beans and scout’s prognostications should not be over-valued, though in fairness, I do think that NHL scouts do a pretty good job overall in projecting players in the first round … look at how many lottery picks are considered busts just a few years later in the NBA; the platitudes given to these guys on draft night are so completely over-the-top. Same thing in the NFL with quarterbacks.
That’s very possible.
It does not absolve him of an unwillingness to learn from coaches and teammates.
Great quote, thanks for that.
And you had me nodding in agreement with everything else, right up until:
Yak played juniour for the Sarnia Sting (so ironic it hurts). He broke Stamkos’ record for goals by a rookie (49). So I don’t think his issues were so much related to playing a North American style on smaller ice, as much as the rest of what you said. He simply didn’t want to put in the work to get better at areas of his game that lagged his strengths.
More succinctly put … Yakupov was immature. Yep I agree with that completely… and that’s backed up by both former NHL execs (Brian Burke) and former players who played with him (Devan Dubnyk among others).
Again, I don’t blame the scouts for ranking him number one … at 18, he could be forgiven for coming off as cocky … most are at that age. Most high end talents then get humbled in their first few NHL seasons, and then start to put in the work needed to make talent meet expectations.
There was no way to know that Yakupov would be the exception, unless you had a crystal ball.
Wow, those Sullivan quotes are determinative. And damning.
I suspect the Oilers media would have liked to have coaches go on the record during JP’s time here.
It’s almost like Puljujarvi has zero years experience seven times.
From my memory off accounts, the Oilers did get Jesse a tutor and English lessons, and Jesse himself did not attend all lessons, etc. Could be misremembering (or false facts) but I do recall something along those lines.
I wanted JP to succeed but it wasn’t to be. English was tough for him to master. He was fluent in Finnish and Bisonese but couldn’t or didn’t want to learn to be fluent in English..
If there’s any unbiased St.Louis fans out there how’s Broberg doing this year? So far has Broberg been worth alienating 80% of the G.M’s in the smartest man in the room contest.
Zack Hyman likely not in the top 3 of injury replacement options for Canada in the next 48 hours.
He should be.
Big mistake. Hyman can play up and down the lineup with anybody…including McDavid. Really high hockey IQ. That’s incredibly crucial for a really short tournament.
Hard to believe that all of Konecny, Cirelli, and Hagel got the nod over him.
I agree that the Hyman of last year should be but not this year, and not his recent play over the last few weeks (despite a couple of goals).
I don’t agree on Hockey IQ, I’ve never thought of Hyman as a high hockey IQ player – not to pile on but his play on the game winning goal last night was the opposite of high hockey IQ.
I’m not here to “bash Zack” – great player, great Oiler, great person, I just think he’s being going through the motions (along with some others on the team) in recent times.
Scheifele is the no-brainer first replacement and I put Duchesne, Tavares and maybe even Suzuki ahead of him.
Guys like Dylan Gunther, Robert Thomas, etc., etc.
A buddy was a solid Junior prospect back in the day. He tried out for the Kamloops Blazers, Coach Hay told him he had to beat these two guys for a RW job, Shane Doan and Jerome Iginla
He tore his groin, back then still kept playing. Of course he didn’t make the team, so he and Adam Deadmarsh drove to Lethbridge to try out there so the story goes
My point being I think he knows the game, and he says Hyman has tunnel vision. Zach is good at certain things and is able to play with top players obviously. He is good at getting the puck and goes to the net. But he isn’t the greatest play maker and doesn’t use his shot enough
Yes he scored 54 goals, but he had 23 assists, and the line as a group didn’t score many more goals, Connor and Nuge scored less. He has made the most of his skill set and opportunity, but pre Oilers 21 was his highest total and he played with good players in TO – Connor is driving his increased scoring as an Oiler
Connor would be better served with a more rounded offensive player on one of his wings. Ideally a really good defensive one that could play a Kurri role for him. I think the way he’s wired he gets bored with the defensive side, he has his lapses like lately
It took Sather a while to find Gretzky’s wingers. Nuge and Zach have done well, but I think better help let’s Connor get to where he can. Of course you can’t just get those guys on Amazon. He should be walking away with the scoring title every year he’s in prime, and by a good margin, like Gretzky and Lemieux, he’s that much better than his peers
Many times he tries to barge through multiple defenses and you rarely see him pass back to defense. Tunnel vision in one direction and often gets stifled.
Hyman is a really good North-South player, though he tends to play more heavy on the offensive zone than he does in the defensive zone. McDavid is the same.
When they don’t cash their scoring opportunities then there is a good chance the other team’s top line will outscore they when matched power vs power.
I’d like the Oilers to target a goal scoring winger to play with McDavid and then move Hyman to the third line. Not because I think Hyman is a bad player, but rather cause he can drive offense on any line he plays on … as you say, he’s got tunnel vision (aka – shot mentality) … which is not a bad thing on a team that likes to over-pass the puck.
He’s a pretty unsophisticated player … just a total bulldog for the front of the net where goals are scored.
I don’t think he should be picked over the likes of Scheifle (who is a better goal scorer) or Konecny (who is a better all round player).
Cirelli and Hagel are having excellent years and have earned their spot on Team Canada.
I would have been happier if McDavid had used that ridiculous suspension as a middle finger to the league and sat out the Four Nations. Something is not quite right with him and could use some down time. And I would have not minded if Ekholm joined him in solidarity. So as it relates to Hyman, quite frankly I think all of the Oilers need some time away to hit the reset button and get their bodies and minds back on track. This break is coming at a good time and let’s hope the McDavid and Ekholm don’t come back worse for wear.
In the negotiations that go on between the NHL and the NHLPA, I believe its the NHLPA and the players that push for participation in international tournaments, not the NHL Head Office, NHL team management and certainly not the owners. Besides players wanting to play for their country, the players retirement fund gets significant proceeds from the Four Nations Cup. If players like McDavid started backing out out of spite, the owners would happily vote against tournaments like this and it could also harm negotiations on future Olympics.
That would also be a middle finger to himself as, from everything I’ve read and heard and seen, McDavid is very excited to play in this tournament – and i think that’s real.
Good he can use the break
Towards H.H post. Goals have more value when it comes to MVP voting. Also positioning of a team in the stsndimgs carries weight as well.
Jesse Puljujarvi placed on unconditional waivers to terminate his contract.
I wish him well.
Well damn. I agree with you. All the best, Jesse.
Jesse will have a good career In The Finnish league. He has made has made 3-4 mill playing over here over the last several years. He should be able to play several years in the Finn league ( Maybe KHL) and make another mill or 2 and if invested we’ll have a comfy life from hockey. Nice kid, wish him all the best.
Song that came to mind at end of the first part of your article:
https://youtu.be/aEj-mrwwaxo?si=T3gkZ51z55EzeKm7
Martha is the one I find the most melancholy. My God what a writer.
Your words made me think of this song I discovered at the start of the pandemic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ui9umU0C2g
For all of you who doubt Stu Skinner, Bruce McCurdy wrote an insightful piece on goaltending (before yesterday’s game). He doesn’t tease out the “how does SSkinner fare against top-10 teams,” a difficult stat as Jason Dreger noted in last night’s post-game Got Yer Back podcast: the top-10 is always shifting. McCurdy says Skinner is generally in net against most difficult opponents (as judged by coach, McCurdy?). In any case, before last night, the trend for both goaltenders and team was good.
The beautiful shambles (for an action-loving fan) of a game is not, I think, worthy of the deep worrying I’m reading here today. It’s a game. In the deadzone of the season. Two good teams played fast and loose. From top to bottom.
Nevertheless, as the “Cult of Hockey” Player Grades post game report card showed, not everyone was thinking about the holiday as they entertained us. An A and a few Bs were handed out, in that bouquet of Ds and Fs that are fitting for a game that did not matter.
McCurdy: “Then there’s this one: while the Oilers are a dominant team in terms of shot volumes at both ends of the rink, they currently rank 13th in save percentage and a lowly 23rd in shooting percentage (all situations). For all the fixation on the ‘tendies, perhaps the bigger issue for this squad is its poor conversion rate at the other end of the sheet.”
2024-25 SH% 10.1 (about 50th percentile in league)
2023-24 SH% 10.6 (about 70th percentile)
2023-24 playoffs SH% 12.1 (86th percentile)
as per NHL EDGE
I touched on the conversion rate other day. Their seems to be something unique about Oilers attack, particularly the high possession offensive zone time.
It is as if once everybody is inside the zone and set up, the defenders in the house and attackers have the perimeter surrounded it becomes difficult and we are left with point shots and difficulty getting net front.
Generally, many goals as you review them, come from broken plays, mistakes, players out of position, shift changes. We see this on goals against the Oilers, but also works for Oilers. Broken plays often leave an open man.
Oilers have no problem gaining the zone, then they shift into this possession mode. Certainly “lack of finish” is a thing, but there is not much time/space to work with.
If it was 3vs3 you would see a zone exit to reset, create space, create an opportunity. Its an observation but I have no suggestions. Perhaps set plays.
The fellas at ON have been addressing this in different ways. Sunil has an article up about the amount of shots by D. It’s too high, higher than before, and it drags on SH% as they are low percentage shots
Gregor had Adam Oates on, and he is no fan of the current soup du jour of offensive tactics some teams, like the Oilers, are using. He calls it a spread out offense, and thinks it hampers offense especially for normal players
We see the Oilers dumping the puck in a lot (low percentage) and playing the puck around the perimeter and to the points. Eventually Connor or Leon try to force a play to the middle, and lately a lot of those are turning the puck over. Lots of point shots because nothing is open in front, the D sets up and lots of teams collapse to the net front against them, tough sledding
The still score quite a bit, but I see that as a function of having two of the best forwards there are and other skill. I think they should be more dangerous than they currently are
I have liked KK more than any other coach in a long time. But I fear his system is too conservative for the roster. There’s a bit of a disconnect also between Coffey demanding the D make plays and he involved offensively, and the forwards playing a more conservative game. There must be a balance there somewhere that still suppresses HDCA and promotes the strength of the players they have
The Canes also drive strong shot stats and also have higher shots from D, and don’t get the amount of offense you’d expect from it. It’s long been their Achilles heel, along with goaltending. Sounds familiar
…as judged by points percentage of the opponent. The Oklers have played 18 “sets” of 3 games, with Skinner always starting 2 & Pickard 1. By (current) Pts% Skinner has played the toughest team of the 3 in 17 of the 18 sets, with Pickard getting the weakest opponent of the 3 in a clear majority of them.
It was a great article Bruce, thank-you.
I’m not in the trade Skinner crowd but the fear is that if Skinner gets the hardest matchups in the regular season and struggles, what happens in the playoffs when every team will be tough?
One bad series could end the run.
Granted, a lot of skaters like Nuge and Henrique are having down scoring years but that what happens when we acquire a bunch of greybeards.
I suggest you read the article. It doesn’t support the “Skinner struggles against hardest matches” hypothesis.
I gather Pickard plays the back-end of consecutive games while Skinner usually plays the 3rd in 4 nights start which many consider a harder matchup than back-to-backs.
Lots of conversation about playoff vs non-playoff teams and Skinner’s performance vs top 10. Looking at a few sites today a few things jump out:
One: Both Skinner and Pickard have allowed more goals than expected from the right side. And that’s our “puck moving” side
https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/savingTeamSingle/2425/EDM/pickaca92/wrap
https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/savingTeamSingle/2425/EDM/skinnst98/wrap
Two: EDM finishing and saving is lower for out of conference teams (5v5):
Within division: 15 GP; 8.92 SH%; 92.17 SV%; 1.011 PDO
Within Conference: 18 GP; 8.26 SH%; 91.37 SV%; 0.996 PDO
Out of Conference: 22 GP; 7.86 SH%; 89.98 SV%; 0.978 PDO
Out of Conference results might speak to less attention to detail and malaise in games that may be perceived to be “less important.” Five of the top 10 teams in the league by PTS% are in the West, and the three worst teams are in the West.
Sorting this table you can see SV% by competitor. Worst SV%’s include Washington, Winnipeg, Toronto and Florida, but also Chicago and Anaheim. So there is some truth to the perception that EDM has not saved well against better teams. But they also have not saved well against terrible teams.
Thanks Bruce. I really liked this article. Wondering if anything in your thinking changes after one game (last night)?
https://flip.it/xRxbrC
Skinner has a 0.879 save % in first periods regardless of who he’s facing.
Thanks. Tell me about second and third (and OT) periods. I’m very interested.
Is Colton Scissons a target for the Oilers?
31 years old. RHC. $2.8 mil contract with next year as well.
Not sure if he moves the needle at all??
Yanni Gourde a target? UFA . $3.5 mil. ???
NICE GOURDE
-> Heavy Dzone use (~41% ozone starts)
->Okayish FO numbers
-> solid PK usage 1.5+ mins/game most of career
NOT NICE GOURDE
-> 33 years old
-> undergoing sports hernia surgery
->****5’9″, 175 lbs****
If you trade out arvidsson contract straight up?
Maybe?
Id be hesitant to jam too much of chip stack into slight framed undersized players likely on back end of career as injuries start stavkimg up.
Both are guys I have on my list. I intend to use the break to do a bit of a look into the numbers of potential TDL targets.
I’ve seen articles quoting Bowman as wanting “depth pieces”, which after last night has me thinking 2C instead of 4LW. I agree with the consensus that this year doesn’t look like 97s best, and actually might need 29 to outscore. 93 and 18 just aren’t top line players this year.
Cap’s going way up, so we can afford to go out and spend next year’s space on another impact C to compliment nuge on the 2-line. My aim is the Schenn/RStrome/Schmaltz territory, but admitting I’m not sure if these guys actually play C anymore. Going to cost the moon and the stars, but we’re in win mode.
Sissons has been playing wing to McCarron. I was on the Sissons train earlier, then they moved him to McCarron’s wing, his scoring has been bouncing back.
Yet McCarron is in double digit face offs every night running at 54.6% is 6’6 232lbs, hits everything in sight at $900,000 a year.
Sounds like a perfect 4C target.
And he’s right handed.
I’m curious LT: You had the game as a loss, but you sound very disappointed in the kind of loss. Apocalyptic even. Very unlike the measured tone I’ve come to expect.
On the scoresheet the other guys were one goal better. But that’s all. What kind of loss were you imagining? Pray tell.
I expected effort.
Fair comment. Thx.
I sure hope illness was a factor last night as there was, what looked to be, a big effort, commitment, lack of give a shot amongst some of the higher need players on the team including McDavid and Hyman but also and Bouch.
Mistakes happen but lazy mistakes and stupid mistakes, well, those should be vast exceptions from most of these guys on the most veteran team in the league.
Last night MacKinnon and – Makar in particular – looked like McDavid used to every night.
When my Mom passed away (last January) there were certain songs my sister and I listened to “for her” ….
Fire and Rain was one … LT said it all above.
Also the 3 others were;
Chris Cornell – Nothing Compares to you
Fleetwood Mac – Landslide
Pearl Jam – Release Me
Those songs help get me through …
So true. I love to connect memories to song. And when they come on, there is no way not to tear up.
oh yah, pretty much cried every time for a year … but getting better now ….
Interestingly enough while driving home from the game I mentioned that McDavid was hardly noticeable and was surprised to read he played 24 minutes.wondering if he ‘s got some of the flu bug that was going around. As for his reduction in points, one needs to consider his line mates as well. Hyman has not been converting McDavids passes as he did last year and don’t get me started on RNH … he cannot be on the first line… the third line must be his new permanent position as he did fine there yesterday. I believe it must frustrate the hell out of McD when his line mates continue to blow great plays and as a result it is affecting his play.
As for Skinner, I do like him but another abysmal start has me wondering … I don’t think there is presently an affordable upgrade available but if they don’t get to the finals or get bumped out in an earlier round he will be replaced this summer.
Every McDavid point is harder to get than an average point. He faces the best effort from every opposing player.
Hymans down season has also played a part in Nuge’s p/60
It’s a surprise we’re still in first with below average Joe goaltending. Bowman won’t mess with the goaltending till offseason. I guess Pickard takes the loss he still has a higher winning percentage and save percentage then Skinner. I would start Pickard more in the second half. Skinner didn’t have much of a offseason give him time to rest physically and mentally. Nothing sinks a really good team in the playoffs faster than below average Joe goaltending
Skinner was poor last night and has been inconsistent the last few weeks. Coincides with him having a baby.
Hopefully he isn’t Devan Dubnikked.
Question for LT or anyone who knows?
How many days does the rest of the team get off before they practise again?
Bag skate in Cabo!
Practise a week Tuesday
Tks
hahahaha
Just a bad effort overall. Skinner was terrible plain and simple. Bouchard, Hyman both had bad giveaways and games . The D was terrible overall in the 1st. PK sucked except 5/3, #1 PP. Stunk, Drai and Perry were great, bottom 6 ok, even McD was off.
Team mostly looked like they had one foot in the plane off to Cabo. Colorado kinda looked the same except except for Makar and MacKinnon.
Is what it is, go have your vacation and come back ready to go.
Skinner needs to get focused if Bowman is convinced he doesn’t need goalie help. ( Which he has stated he doesn’t)
Please Bring up Savoie for game #1 after the break . Give him the 5 games to Sat March 1. See if he pops. If not make sure Skinner gets those 5 games on Drai’s line.
They also need Kane’s grit back and Either a big bruising D man ( Oleksiak ). and probably another gritty forward for the bottom 6 who is a great pk guy as in Tanev.
Should be fun to see what transpires.
My point yesterday about MacKinnon was not that Leon or Connor aren’t also in the conversation it’s just incredibly Oiler-centric to ignore Nathan MacKinnon in either debate; playing the best in the league or best player in the world. Nathan MacKinnon is an absolute legend of the game.
Best in the world debate…since McDavids transcendent 2022-23 season MacKinnon is now 24 points clear of McDavid in the 1.5 years since. Kucherov us also well clear. Yes Leon is keeping it close with the big boys this year but no one would seriously consider him in the “best in the world” conversation. He’s over 40 points back in only a year and a half.
Lindsay award winner? Sure you can absolutely put Leon in the race but don’t be naive to ignore that the (possible) best player in the world is now 4 points clear. this is very much like Matthews/McDavid 2021-22. Leon is to MacKinnon as Matthews was to Connor during 2021-22 when he was so damned good he stole the MVP and began joining the conversation of best in the world.
Those of us in Edmonton laughed at the Leaf homers while acknowledging what a season 34 had.
Don’t be like Leafs homers.
well put things in context as well. Mc David has missed games due to injuries and suspension this yr and therefore at times hasn’t been right and more difficult to get into rhythm. Also Mckinnon always enjoys better line mates every yr, Rantanen exclusively while he was there and now Necas, whereas McDavid yearly has a revolving door. and he also has the best defence man in hockey Makar. McKinnon is great no doubt, better than Matthews, but a bit behind McDavid and Drai who I consider the 2nd best player in hockey
I disagree. Draisaitl is most definitely in the conversation as an equal to MacKinnon. Over there careers, Draisaitl leads in points per game 1.21 to 1.16. Each has one Hart trophy to their credit. Nate has the Stanley, while Leon lost game 7 by one goal. Very comparable careers and not at all like Matthews vs McDavid in my opinion.
On a PPG basis, McDavid and Draisaitl are up there with MacKinnon this year.
(MacKinnon has also finally stayed healthy the last couple of years.)
It will be interesting to see which of the two drives the bus at 4 Nations. My money is on our man.
Stu’s numbers against good teams is dirty toilet water, that’s the main fix they need to attend to.
I read somewhere last night that Skinner is 2-9-2 this year against top 10 teams. Can anyone confirm that please?
There’s a discussion of Bruce McCurdy’s recent article on Oilers goaltending (see more recent posts). You might find what you’re looking for there. The article is a good read. As is Bruce’s comment in the thread.
There was a thread later after the game discussing how MacKinnon looked like the best player in the world last night compared to McDavid. I assume the thread was removed because HH made a comment that got down voted to hell, so I wanted to bring it back up for discussion today.
Yes Mackinnon looked great last night with his speed and playmaking ability. He was however helped out by two soft goals given up by Skinner. I think Draisaitl is just having an exceptional season and should be mentioned in any conversation regarding the best player in the world. If he goes on to win the Rocket Richard, and either wins or is within a few points of the Art Ross, and is top 5 in plus minus, all while his teammate “ McDavid is having a “down” year, I don’t know how you can give the Hart, and Lindsey to anyone else.
That goal from his knees was something else.
That “best player in the world” tag gets very heavy. Even his own team has to bring it up constantly. Im sure Connor would love to pass that over to Leon for a while, and take a rest.
Brother and I got Xmas gift tickets, row 19 behind the Oilers bench. Possible it was illness or just already mentally making plans to hit On the Rocks after the game, knowing there’s a 2 week break, but they were supremely uninterested.
The 2 goals allowed by Skinner. Come on. The first one is right along the ice, that’s a save a 15 year old would make.
It really was Drai and Perry carrying the day.
I don’t know what is going on with Hyman but he’s useless and that pass can’t happen in a tie game in the 3rd.
McDavid has been looking like Ryan McLeod.
Henrique I think might have been a mistake.
Trying not to overreact to a 3 in 4 nights game and the Oilers on top of the division but wow were they not convincing last night.
McLeod played high end defensive hockey…..
All goalies have bad games. Stuart Skinner really needs to figure out how to be ready to play on time. He is a youngish goalie, but has more than enough experience to still be so consistently bad in the first periods of hockey games.
I have posted a few times about the Oilers tendency of being slow starters. Having a goalie with a .900 save percentage in the first period would go along ways to rectify this issue. No, it’s not all Skinners fault, but I don’t think expecting league average tending from the start of the game is too much to ask.
Frustrating group of games in February so far and they are still 500 for the month. Come back from the break reset and refreshed to hopefully get back to the game we know they can play
What do the stats say about Skinner’s first periods? It also feels to me like he has a tendency to have poor starts to games but do the stats back that up?
I am not even sure what the best stat or stats are to measure a goalie’s effectiveness. Is there an article or resource to help me with that? Goals saved above expected sounds like a good measure but does it matter who the shooter was?
Gregor’s article on OilersNation yesterday had him near the top in goals given up on the first few shots of the game. It was also posted that his save percentage in first periods this year is .879
This is based on my own tracking. I’m not sure how to add a table or image here, so apologies for the block of numbers.
Skinner sv% by period:
1st .879 (Oct .863, Nov .938, Dec .896, Jan .846, Feb to date .778)
2nd .919 (Oct .894, Nov .902, Dec .936, Jan .923, Feb to date 1.000)
3rd .906 (Oct .869, Nov .867, Dec .911, Jan .978, Feb to date .1.000)
OT .833 (Oct .667, Nov n/a, Dec .857, Jan 1.000, Feb to date 1.000)
Pickard sv% by period:
1st .891 (Oct .900, Nov .895, Dec .857, Jan .870, Feb to date 1.000)
2nd .887 (Oct .871, Nov .913, Dec .919, Jan .861, Feb to date .867)
3rd .920 (Oct .912, Nov .871, Dec .938, Jan .978, Feb to date .850)
OT 1.000 (Oct n/a, Nov 1.000, Dec n/a, Jan n/a, Feb to date 1.000)
GA & SOG by period:
1st Skinner 38/313; Pickard 19/174
2nd Skinner 26/322; Pickard 16/142
3rd Skinner 31/330; Pickard 13/162
OT: Skinner 3/18; Pickard 0/2
Skinner has been sub .900 in the first period 16 of 37 GP, so 43.2% of the time.
Pickard has been sub .900 in the first period 9 of 18 GP, so 50% of the time.
Both have sv% above .900 in the remainder of those games.
Thanks for this.
I swear I used to know how to edit posts, but apparently not today. In the above array of numbers that should be .813 for Skinner in the 3rd period for the February games, not 1.000.
Can only edit for 5 minutes after the post is made.
Thank you.
Want to teach a center what their job is?
https://youtu.be/Q73xrLoA33s?si=x2sHkpBj6TtfRwsN
Such a beautiful sequence. Every piece.
Prospectally!
A wafer-thin Saturday sched with just a quintet of NAmateurs.
Fischer has exactly matched last year’s production (2 goals, 14 apples) but in nine fewer games (25).
Wakely has slipped to 3rd in team scoring (41 points in 40 GP) and has only one goal in his last 10.
Akey is 3rd amongst Barrie D-men scoring with 25 points in 37 GP. Being healthy this season is a big plus, though he is off the pace of his draft season (47 in 66).
The House of Stone has discovered something of a scoring touch again with goals in 3 of his last 5 GP.
Berry rounds out the sched.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 4 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 4 p.m.
Peterborough (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5:30 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Carvel time.
Last night is primarily on the coach, and #97 Connor McDavid.
The coach couldn’t read what was going on out there and make the necessary changes. He was stuck in a loop. This was sold as a strength early in his tenure. It is starting to concern me greatly because we’ve seen it too many times now. If you’re this sort of coach, your only hope is either an AC who covers your blind spot, or a captain who can spot it for you and doesn’t let it go. He needs one of those, or to be gone in order for this squad to be all it can.
And of course #97. Compared to his standard, he is playing terrible hockey right now, whatever the reason. It is deeply frustrating that no one will call this out on tv broadcasts, the radio, YouTube…almost anywhere. They’re still acting for instance like last night was a showdown between MacKinnon and McDavid.
It was a battle of the 29s. One took advantage of opportunities provided by strong support from his team. The other almost lugged his team on his back for seemingly the 20th or so time this season.
I wanted to comment quickly on Connor McDavid and his season. He’s a brilliant player and is on pace for 110 points, but he’s not quite the player we’ve seen all these years.
When we talk about the coach playing Draisaitl with McDavid, this year it might just be to optimize McDavid’s minutes. That wasn’t always the case, but the numbers suggest it is this year. McDavid, for the season, is scoring 1.13 goals-60 and 3.38 points-60 with Draisaitl. Without 29? He’s at .71 goals-60 and 2.00 points-60.
This morning, at five-on-five, McDavid’s points-60 is 2.53 including all linemates. It is the lowest total of his career.
His goal share without Draisaitl (and excluding those early Jeff Skinner minutes) is 52 percent. His line is scoring 2.67 goals-60. Last year it was 4.07 goals-60 with a 59 percent goal percentage.
From two days ago, here:
https://lowetide.ca/2025/02/06/jesus-just-left-chicago/
I know you’re after it LT – the team attached folks and those one step removed are on full ignore mode though. More people need to be saying what you are – and also pointing out some really serious dips in play that simply didn’t used to be part of his game. This is a guy who almost never had a bad shift, much less an ugly game.
I wonder if he should play in 4-nations. If he DOES, then the Oilers might want to give him a break to heal afterward (if that is the issue).
Finally, we may be viewing a slight career downturn in his offensive impact. That is the big worry imo.
My profound hope is that this is in his head – and I see that as accurate based on some limitations he has placed on what he’s attempting out there. There are plays he isn’t trying anymore – and this is not a positive – but could be remedied. It isn’t that people are stopping them – instead he’s removed it from his toolbox.
If he’s accumulating injuries and not increasing his skills in other areas to keep up, well, then things could get worse. That’s frightening.
I see this too. How many times have we seen him fly down the right wing, back the dman off, then cut to the middle and rip a wrist shot past the goalie. Used to be a staple of his game. He has only attempted this less than a handful of times this season
If we look back at other super elite players, were they at their peak game and leading the league’s offensive stats each and every year?
Lemieux only scored 122 pts in his 12th season?
I mean Gretz dipped down to 183 points in his 8th season. He was a bum I tell ya!
Yzerman had a serious, and somewhat permanent dip after a couple of injury shortened seasons. In years 11 and 12. Started puttin up sub 100 seasons.
I worry about McD and injury, but I also wonder if he is susceptible to his own mountain of pressure he puts on himself (or so it seems to me). Maybe he needs a buddy to make him laugh between whistles.
I don’t have an answer on this historically, but we can point to MacK, NK, and Leon this year as current players who maintained or increased their offensive output at ages older than 97 is now.
The super elite ones were.
Gordie Howe finished in the top 5 scorers 20 (TWENTY!!!) seasons in a row.
Bobby Orr, a d-man, finished top 3 for 6 years in a row.
Wayne Gretzky won 7 straight scoring titiles by an average margin of 67 points. Yes you read that right.
Connor McDavid, the greatest scorer of the current century, has finished top 3 for 8 years in a row & may yet do so again. Earlier this week, he took over, dominated & ultimately won a game for his team. But he has played a lot of games lately that are far below the norm. Plenty of reason for concern.
My hope is that 4 Nations will revitalize him. He clearly needs a boost of some sort just now.
How about we look at the more modern age, say Crosby, Malkin, OV, Kucherov, maybe even Sakik?
Crosby’s best season came when he was 20.
His last 100 point season was at the age of 31.
Malkin last approached 100 points at age 31.
His peak season was his third in the NHL.
Ovechkin’s. peak point season was at the age 22.
His last 50 goal season was at age 33.
Kucherov took a rather circuitous road to the NHL but his best season has been last season at the age of 30 when he scored 144. He’s on pace for 127 this season.
All of these are in line with the voluminous research on aging curves.
“Father time remains undefeated”
-Harpers Hair when it relates to older Oilers performing well
Leon Draisaitl’s best season is happening as he approaches 30.
Well I did say “super elite” & i did call McDavid “the greatest scorer of the current century” but sure I can look at those guys. Draisaitl too. Give me a few…
Hear hear! 82 games to prepare for potentially 28 more, then throw in a meaningless (to Stanley) exhibition series that completely distracts the chosen players —who wouldn’t want to rep the flag in “best against best?” What an awful idea. And as someone has noted, after the 100+ game season last year and a short break, and after pouring himself into it, McD is running on adrenaline. And in February that doesn’t look like a renewable source of energy for the man.
Let him play Four Nations, sure. Then dial him back. A break? Less minutes? Some way of not draining his reserves before they are really needed.
I am so NOT a fan of this exhibition series. Save it for summer.
If McDavid needs any sort of break to heal it should not be after the 4 Nations but it should during the 4 Nations.
Oh, I get it, McDavid really wants to play and it would suck to miss it but the person talks about the Cup being the one and only goal – there is not sane world where he plays in the tournament and the heals during NHL games – that doesn’t jive with his stated goals.
I think there is zero chance he misses the tournament and I sure hope he has just been sick, not hurt (or maybe neither).
If there is an injury to heal, this is the time, as much as it would suck for him.
The whole team was cruising until McDavid got suspended.
Since then they’ve been less than perfectly focussed, yet have still mangled to remain in 1st in the Pacific Division.
Please LMHF#1 – I know you are a fair man and hockey expert. Let’s say we give the Oilers 4 weeks/30 days from their return to the regular season before starting work on their obituaries?
Appreciate It hunter – more of a possible warning signal and a shot at those who cover the team than those who are actually on it.
Even a casual “off night for the captain” comment once in a while would be appreciated. And some video breakdown of the plays he’s either not making or not choosing to make could be some great analysis to review. All of that is lacking.
“Showdown” was an absolute blowout. Boxcars tell the tale:
MacKinnon 1-3-4, +2
McDavid 0-0-0, -3
Somehow Oilers came within a goal at 5-4.
This is McDavid’s 10th season. He has 5 Art Ross Trophies. He has been SuperNova as LT says. But you can simply look at “most” Superstars and inevitably, their point totals drop after year 10, 11, 12. They are usually better all around players, but their peak offensive days are behind them.
I think McDavid still has plenty of Elite Offense in him, and maybe 1 more Art Ross. But the reality is – for a host of reasons – Rarely do players win Art Ross’ after 12 years of playing. There are outliers, but they are just that.
Perhaps he, more than anyone, emptied the tank in last year’s Playoff run. Never recovered emotionally or physically ….
Anyway. This may not be his year, but he will deliver many more solid seasons ahead.
Art Ross: MacKinnon is in his 12th season. Never won before. Draisaitl his 11th.
24: kuchurov 10th season
23: mcd 8th
22: mcd 7th
21: mcd 6th
20: drai 6th
19: kuch 5th
18 mcd 3rd
17 mcd 2nd
16 kane 9th
15 Benn 6th
14 crosby 9th
13 st Louis 14th !!!!!!!
…
07 crosby 2nd
…
04 st louis 3rd
98-2001 jagr 8th to 11th
97 lemieux 12th
94 gretz 15th
80-2001 had only 3 winners. Gretz lemieux and jagr.
Mostly the art ross gets won by the same guy over and over. Mcdavids comparbles are lemieux jagr and gretz. Lemieux won it in season 12, jagr in season 12, gretz in season 15.
I would expect mcd has another one in him Yet.
Thanks. This is what I have been getting at.
I don’t feel it is reasonable to expect McDavid to be supernova every single year.
This ignores certain changes the coach did make at times in the game:
1) Taking PP1 off after 40 seconds after giving up a shortie
2) Benching Bouchard for 2-3 even strength shifts after his gaff
3) Not going to McDavid/Drai on the 4 on 4 but McDavid/Nuge and then Drai/Arvidsson (I believe) which scored.