There are songs you hear that stay with you for a lifetime. James Taylor’s Fire and Rain is such a song. The guitar, melody and Taylor’s strong vocals are exceptional, and create a warm feeling at the beginning of the record. As the words tap in to your soul, there is a realization that this is a song about grievous life events, overwhelming sadness and desperation.
Taylor’s voice is calm, strong, exceptional. The words are so damn sad, especially so since they came from such a young person. There is a stark difference between the relaxed, back porch delivery of the song and the devastating lyrics.
A lifetime of pain in a gorgeous pop song delivered by a voice I now know almost as well as my own. Sometimes in life, a song can flatten you. Fire And Rain does it every time.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- January result: 2-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-17-4, 72 points in 55 games
Yesterday I wrote “I have tonight as a loss for Edmonton, mostly because teams have a hard time going 4-0-0 in the NHL, especially at this time of year” and it happened just that way. The Oilers were poor last evening, heartbeats accelerating but the minds were at the airport.
This team has this kind of effort in them, and if this group of Oilers fails to win a Stanley Cup, indifferent play when the result isn’t yet final will be chronicled. Some may blame luck or an avalanche, I’m prepared to blame it on malaise.
A most disappointing effort last night, Edmonton Oilers. Your detractors have new ammunition today, this morning.
THE NUMBERS
The Oilers didn’t put much effort into the game when it was on the line, so I’m not inclined to waste much of my typewriter ribbon on specifics. Leon Draisaitl is Paul Bunyan, Corey Perry is a phenomenal hockey player carving an incredible career.
Illness may have been a factor, but these Oilers head to the break after delivering a pitiful performance. The 2006-07 Edmonton Oilers were dead in the water every night, beginning with the anthem. That very poor team gave effort for coach Craig MacTavish. I believe Kris Knoblauch deserves the same kind of effort. Perhaps we’ll see it again from these Oilers after the break.
FIRE AND RAIN
The Oilers today are a little like that song Fire And Rain I talked about at the beginning of this article. The words and music are lovely, but the inviting feel of the song does not match the words.
Edmonton’s hockey club is like that. Smooth as silk, glorious thrills delivered so often you dare not look away. And yet, the hard work of winning sometimes lapses, and that may well be the Achilles heel of this organization during this era of hockey.
Blame it on the goalie, blame it on the defense, blame it on malaise. No matter. Someone should ask the 1962-72 Chicago Blackhawks about Bobby Hull’s slap shot, Stan Mikita’s puck wizardry, Glenn Hall’s (and then Tony Esposito’s) brilliant netminding, and the exceptional defense delivered by Pierre Pilote and then Bill White.
Then ask them (those still living) if they would give back all of the hardware and accolades for just one (more) Stanley Cup.
Inside last night’s game is the key to the Oilers future path. Whatever inspired such a dull performance needs to be fired into the sun. These Oilers haven’t won a damn thing. That could be their legacy.
About Darnell Nurse and an impressive season.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6118445/2025/02/07/oilers-defenceman-darnell-nurse-passing/
I sure hope illness was a factor last night as there was, what looked to be, a big effort, commitment, lack of give a shot amongst some of the higher need players on the team including McDavid and Hyman but also and Bouch.
Mistakes happen but lazy mistakes and stupid mistakes, well, those should be vast exceptions from most of these guys on the most veteran team in the league.
Last night MacKinnon and – Makar in particular – looked like McDavid used to every night.
When my Mom passed away (last January) there were certain songs my sister and I listened to “for her” ….
Fire and Rain was one … LT said it all above.
Also the 3 others were;
Chris Cornell – Nothing Compares to you
Fleetwood Mac – Landslide
Pearl Jam – Release Me
Those songs help get me through …
So true. I love to connect memories to song. And when they come on, there is no way not to tear up.
Interestingly enough while driving home from the game I mentioned that McDavid was hardly noticeable and was surprised to read he played 24 minutes.wondering if he ‘s got some of the flu bug that was going around. As for his reduction in points, one needs to consider his line mates as well. Hyman has not been converting McDavids passes as he did last year and don’t get me started on RNH … he cannot be on the first line… the third line must be his new permanent position as he did fine there yesterday. I believe it must frustrate the hell out of McD when his line mates continue to blow great plays and as a result it is affecting his play.
As for Skinner, I do like him but another abysmal start has me wondering … I don’t think there is presently an affordable upgrade available but if they don’t get to the finals or get bumped out in an earlier round he will be replaced this summer.
Every McDavid point is harder to get than an average point. He faces the best effort from every opposing player.
Hymans down season has also played a part in Nuge’s p/60
It’s a surprise we’re still in first with below average Joe goaltending. Bowman won’t mess with the goaltending till offseason. I guess Pickard takes the loss he still has a higher winning percentage and save percentage then Skinner. I would start Pickard more in the second half. Skinner didn’t have much of a offseason give him time to rest physically and mentally. Nothing sinks a really good team in the playoffs faster than below average Joe goaltending
Skinner was poor last night and has been inconsistent the last few weeks. Coincides with him having a baby.
Question for LT or anyone who knows?
How many days does the rest of the team get off before they practise again?
Bag skate in Cabo!
Practise a week Tuesday
hahahaha
Just a bad effort overall. Skinner was terrible plain and simple. Bouchard, Hyman both had bad giveaways and games . The D was terrible overall in the 1st. PK sucked except 5/3, #1 PP. Stunk, Drai and Perry were great, bottom 6 ok, even McD was off.
Team mostly looked like they had one foot in the plane off to Cabo. Colorado kinda looked the same except except for Makar and MacKinnon.
Is what it is, go have your vacation and come back ready to go.
Skinner needs to get focused if Bowman is convinced he doesn’t need goalie help. ( Which he has stated he doesn’t)
Please Bring up Savoie for game #1 after the break . Give him the 5 games to Sat March 1. See if he pops. If not make sure Skinner gets those 5 games on Drai’s line.
They also need Kane’s grit back and Either a big bruising D man ( Oleksiak ). and probably another gritty forward for the bottom 6 who is a great pk guy as in Tanev.
Should be fun to see what transpires.
My point yesterday about MacKinnon was not that Leon or Connor aren’t also in the conversation it’s just incredibly Oiler-centric to ignore Nathan MacKinnon in either debate; playing the best in the league or best player in the world. Nathan MacKinnon is an absolute legend of the game.
Best in the world debate…since McDavids transcendent 2022-23 season MacKinnon is now 24 points clear of McDavid in the 1.5 years since. Kucherov us also well clear. Yes Leon is keeping it close with the big boys this year but no one would seriously consider him in the “best in the world” conversation. He’s over 40 points back in only a year and a half.
Lindsay award winner? Sure you can absolutely put Leon in the race but don’t be naive to ignore that the (possible) best player in the world is now 4 points clear. this is very much like Matthews/McDavid 2021-22. Leon is to MacKinnon as Matthews was to Connor during 2021-22 when he was so damned good he stole the MVP and began joining the conversation of best in the world.
Those of us in Edmonton laughed at the Leaf homers while acknowledging what a season 34 had.
Don’t be like Leafs homers.
well put things in context as well. Mc David has missed games due to injuries and suspension this yr and therefore at times hasn’t been right and more difficult to get into rhythm. Also Mckinnon always enjoys better line mates every yr, Rantanen exclusively while he was there and now Necas, whereas McDavid yearly has a revolving door. and he also has the best defence man in hockey Makar. McKinnon is great no doubt, better than Matthews, but a bit behind McDavid and Drai who I consider the 2nd best player in hockey
Stu’s numbers against good teams is dirty toilet water, that’s the main fix they need to attend to.
I read somewhere last night that Skinner is 2-9-2 this year against top 10 teams. Can anyone confirm that please?
There was a thread later after the game discussing how MacKinnon looked like the best player in the world last night compared to McDavid. I assume the thread was removed because HH made a comment that got down voted to hell, so I wanted to bring it back up for discussion today.
Yes Mackinnon looked great last night with his speed and playmaking ability. He was however helped out by two soft goals given up by Skinner. I think Draisaitl is just having an exceptional season and should be mentioned in any conversation regarding the best player in the world. If he goes on to win the Rocket Richard, and either wins or is within a few points of the Art Ross, and is top 5 in plus minus, all while his teammate “ McDavid is having a “down” year, I don’t know how you can give the Hart, and Lindsey to anyone else.
That goal from his knees was something else.
Brother and I got Xmas gift tickets, row 19 behind the Oilers bench. Possible it was illness or just already mentally making plans to hit On the Rocks after the game, knowing there’s a 2 week break, but they were supremely uninterested.
The 2 goals allowed by Skinner. Come on. The first one is right along the ice, that’s a save a 15 year old would make.
It really was Drai and Perry carrying the day.
I don’t know what is going on with Hyman but he’s useless and that pass can’t happen in a tie game in the 3rd.
McDavid has been looking like Ryan McLeod.
Henrique I think might have been a mistake.
Trying not to overreact to a 3 in 4 nights game and the Oilers on top of the division but wow were they not convincing last night.
Oilers haven’t won a damn thing, that is their legacy. No division title, no Cup. I’m not expecting much from them this post season with the current roster and goaltending. Yes, I went there. We all saw Connor go pointless in Games 6 and 7, mostly due to brilliant tending at the other end. Connor isn’t his brilliant self this year, glimpses of it at times. A lot of shake and very little bake. We can’t expect anything different this year. Skinner is a good backup, but if the front office can’t find a top 10 goalie, the contending window will close sooner than we want to admit. Hate on me if you like, it’s your choice. But the truth is a hard pill to swallow sometimes. Other times it evokes positive adjustments and a little glory shines through. Bowman has some work to do.
Didn’t they win the western conference last season?
Yes slow clap. Does anyone care? They choked when it counted most in the final and that is probably as close as they will get to the Cup in the Connor/Leon era. Mackinnon, Makar, Kucherov, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kane have all hoisted the prize. Lowetide is right, every superstar would trade all their hardware for just one more Cup.
All goalies have bad games. Stuart Skinner really needs to figure out how to be ready to play on time. He is a youngish goalie, but has more than enough experience to still be so consistently bad in the first periods of hockey games.
I have posted a few times about the Oilers tendency of being slow starters. Having a goalie with a .900 save percentage in the first period would go along ways to rectify this issue. No, it’s not all Skinners fault, but I don’t think expecting league average tending from the start of the game is too much to ask.
Frustrating group of games in February so far and they are still 500 for the month. Come back from the break reset and refreshed to hopefully get back to the game we know they can play
What do the stats say about Skinner’s first periods? It also feels to me like he has a tendency to have poor starts to games but do the stats back that up?
I am not even sure what the best stat or stats are to measure a goalie’s effectiveness. Is there an article or resource to help me with that? Goals saved above expected sounds like a good measure but does it matter who the shooter was?
Gregor’s article on OilersNation yesterday had him near the top in goals given up on the first few shots of the game. It was also posted that his save percentage in first periods this year is .879
Want to teach a center what their job is?
https://youtu.be/Q73xrLoA33s?si=x2sHkpBj6TtfRwsN
Such a beautiful sequence. Every piece.
Prospectally!
A wafer-thin Saturday sched with just a quintet of NAmateurs.
Fischer has exactly matched last year’s production (2 goals, 14 apples) but in nine fewer games (25).
Wakely has slipped to 3rd in team scoring (41 points in 40 GP) and has only one goal in his last 10.
Akey is 3rd amongst Barrie D-men scoring with 25 points in 37 GP. Being healthy this season is a big plus, though he is off the pace of his draft season (47 in 66).
The House of Stone has discovered something of a scoring touch again with goals in 3 of his last 5 GP.
Berry rounds out the sched.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 4 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 4 p.m.
Peterborough (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5:30 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Carvel time.
Last night is primarily on the coach, and #97 Connor McDavid.
The coach couldn’t read what was going on out there and make the necessary changes. He was stuck in a loop. This was sold as a strength early in his tenure. It is starting to concern me greatly because we’ve seen it too many times now. If you’re this sort of coach, your only hope is either an AC who covers your blind spot, or a captain who can spot it for you and doesn’t let it go. He needs one of those, or to be gone in order for this squad to be all it can.
And of course #97. Compared to his standard, he is playing terrible hockey right now, whatever the reason. It is deeply frustrating that no one will call this out on tv broadcasts, the radio, YouTube…almost anywhere. They’re still acting for instance like last night was a showdown between MacKinnon and McDavid.
It was a battle of the 29s. One took advantage of opportunities provided by strong support from his team. The other almost lugged his team on his back for seemingly the 20th or so time this season.
I wanted to comment quickly on Connor McDavid and his season. He’s a brilliant player and is on pace for 110 points, but he’s not quite the player we’ve seen all these years.
When we talk about the coach playing Draisaitl with McDavid, this year it might just be to optimize McDavid’s minutes. That wasn’t always the case, but the numbers suggest it is this year. McDavid, for the season, is scoring 1.13 goals-60 and 3.38 points-60 with Draisaitl. Without 29? He’s at .71 goals-60 and 2.00 points-60.
This morning, at five-on-five, McDavid’s points-60 is 2.53 including all linemates. It is the lowest total of his career.
His goal share without Draisaitl (and excluding those early Jeff Skinner minutes) is 52 percent. His line is scoring 2.67 goals-60. Last year it was 4.07 goals-60 with a 59 percent goal percentage.
From two days ago, here:
https://lowetide.ca/2025/02/06/jesus-just-left-chicago/
I know you’re after it LT – the team attached folks and those one step removed are on full ignore mode though. More people need to be saying what you are – and also pointing out some really serious dips in play that simply didn’t used to be part of his game. This is a guy who almost never had a bad shift, much less an ugly game.
I wonder if he should play in 4-nations. If he DOES, then the Oilers might want to give him a break to heal afterward (if that is the issue).
Finally, we may be viewing a slight career downturn in his offensive impact. That is the big worry imo.
My profound hope is that this is in his head – and I see that as accurate based on some limitations he has placed on what he’s attempting out there. There are plays he isn’t trying anymore – and this is not a positive – but could be remedied. It isn’t that people are stopping them – instead he’s removed it from his toolbox.
If he’s accumulating injuries and not increasing his skills in other areas to keep up, well, then things could get worse. That’s frightening.
I see this too. How many times have we seen him fly down the right wing, back the dman off, then cut to the middle and rip a wrist shot past the goalie. Used to be a staple of his game. He has only attempted this less than a handful of times this season
If we look back at other super elite players, were they at their peak game and leading the league’s offensive stats each and every year?
Lemieux only scored 122 pts in his 12th season?
I mean Gretz dipped down to 183 points in his 8th season. He was a bum I tell ya!
Yzerman had a serious, and somewhat permanent dip after a couple of injury shortened seasons. In years 11 and 12. Started puttin up sub 100 seasons.
I worry about McD and injury, but I also wonder if he is susceptible to his own mountain of pressure he puts on himself (or so it seems to me). Maybe he needs a buddy to make him laugh between whistles.
I don’t have an answer on this historically, but we can point to MacK, NK, and Leon this year as current players who maintained or increased their offensive output at ages older than 97 is now.
The super elite ones were.
Gordie Howe finished in the top 5 scorers 20 (TWENTY!!!) seasons in a row.
Bobby Orr, a d-man, finished top 3 for 6 years in a row.
Wayne Gretzky won 7 straight scoring titiles by an average margin of 67 points. Yes you read that right.
Connor McDavid, the greatest scorer of the current century, has finished top 3 for 8 years in a row & may yet do so again. Earlier this week, he took over, dominated & ultimately won a game for his team. But he has played a lot of games lately that are far below the norm. Plenty of reason for concern.
My hope is that 4 Nations will revitalize him. He clearly needs a boost of some sort just now.
“Showdown” was an absolute blowout. Boxcars tell the tale:
MacKinnon 1-3-4, +2
McDavid 0-0-0, -3
Somehow Oilers came within a goal at 5-4.
This is McDavid’s 10th season. He has 5 Art Ross Trophies. He has been SuperNova as LT says. But you can simply look at “most” Superstars and inevitably, their point totals drop after year 10, 11, 12. They are usually better all around players, but their peak offensive days are behind them.
I think McDavid still has plenty of Elite Offense in him, and maybe 1 more Art Ross. But the reality is – for a host of reasons – Rarely do players win Art Ross’ after 12 years of playing. There are outliers, but they are just that.
Perhaps he, more than anyone, emptied the tank in last year’s Playoff run. Never recovered emotionally or physically ….
Anyway. This may not be his year, but he will deliver many more solid seasons ahead.