You haven’t said one damn word about the 4-Nations! Wonderful hockey, I can appreciate it and I’m always cheering for Canada. I don’t think it’s a tournament to dissect, but rather to experience. So, I haven’t written on it.
Sure, except you keep writing about Matt Savoie. Try something else! One of this blog’s failings is that the author writes about things he is interested in. So, it can be a bit of a slog when I’m rambling on about Savoie or other, but these are the things that matter to me.
And I believe they do matter. For instance, a year ago I was writing about Xavier Bourgault’s struggles in year two of his AHL career. This was at a time when many were critical of Colin Chaulk for his usage of Bourgault. I pointed out at the time that Bourgault was stalling offensviely at even strength scoring.
How bad was it? Very bad. At 20, Bourgault scored 6-14-20 in 62 games at even strength (.32 points-game). At 21, he delivered 4-7-11 in 55 games (.2 points-game). That’s alarming and I wrote about it here. This season, he has scored 3-4-7 in 40 games at even strength. That’s .18 points-game. He is going the wrong way.
And you find this interesting? Yes! And the blog has been running for 22 years this way. Folks read and comment, or read and don’t comment, but this is what Lowetide offers. Some days you might like it, others not so much.
Why is it interesting? It helps us track progress with other prospects going through the system. Matt Savoie is scoring 9-16-25 in 44 games at even strength with Bakersfield. That’s .57 points-game, a total that is clear of Dylan Holloway (5-5-10 in 33 games, .30) and many other Condors prospects.
So what? That’s a positive indicator. It doesn’t mean that Savoie is going to have a better career than Holloway, but it does mean that offensively he should be able to deliver more as his career rolls along.
Holloway has 40 points already in St. Louis! Savoie will never score that many in the NHL. Holloway’s five-on-five points-60 this season is 1.99 and that’s an impressie total. He is getting 14 minutes a night at five-on-five. Holloway is also seeing plenty of PP time and scoring well there. His most common linemates are Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou. As well, there are seven Blues forwards who play more against elite competition (via Puck IQ) than Holloway. I’d say that’s ideal usage for a young player, St. Louis has him in a terrific position to suceed.
So what? That gives us context. We can say that Holloway is capable of scoring well in ideal situations but can’t compare him directly to Vasily Podkolzin. Podkolzin is scoring 1.77 points 60, but playing more minutes (as a percentage) against elites.
Plus he plays with Draisaitl. Correct. We can discuss how much of a push he gets with Draisaitl, and it’s a lot. We can discuss the idea of Holloway filling that role with Draisiatl, but I don’t think we can say with great confidence Holloway would be scoring more, or outscoring more, on Draisaitl’s line. Podkolzin scores 2.31 points-60 with Draisaitl, and they team up for a 56 percent goal share (all numbers five-on-five). Much of that time is versus elites.
What does Holloway do with Schenn? He’s at 2.2 points-60, and they own a 60-percent goal share five-on-five. Interestingly, Schenn away from Holloway is at 30 percent. Even if we agree that Schenn plays elites often away from Holloway, that’s a stark reading for Schenn and suggests Holloway is a real help. Holloway is 56 percent away from Schenn.
So that’s good! Oh yes, Holloway is having a breakout season.
Which side are you on? I’m not on either side, I just want to know all I can about all of these players. Math helps fill in the blanks.
Bowman should have matched on Holloway? It would have been a smart play, but he didn’t know how much the cap was going up and was looking at a future where Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard needed contracts. He also had no real proof that Holloway would score like he has, and the Oilers needed a player who could perform versus elites. Holloway has not, at any time, spent much time against elites at five-on-five (Puck IQ).
What can we say for sure? Holloway is a success, a big one, in an inviting spot in the lineup. He may be able to grow from there. The Blues are handling him beautifully. Perhaps the Oilers could do something similar with Matt Savoie. Savoie’s season in Bakersfield suggests that he is a more substantial offensive prospect who can help outscore significantly at even strength. Whether both of those things come with him to the NHL is a question that will get an answer in the days to come.
About Noah Philp and his future.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6138285/2025/02/15/edmonton-oilers-noah-philp-nhl-job/
Savoie’s Next 20 segment update
5, 1-5-6 (1.20 P/GP); 7-3 ES goals (70%)
Shootout:
Rodrigue: Save
Petrov scores: tons of speed and shot.
Rodrigue: Goal allowed
Perrault: scores – a BEAUTY (not his first beauty)
Rodrige: goal allowed (Sprong 5-hole).
Savoie: stopped (pope-check now 1 for 5)
Rodrigue: save on the deke
Caggiula: stopped on the deke
Rodrigue: beat on the forehand/backhand move
Griffith – goes five hole but is stopped
Fun game.
Hate the fact that Caggiula starts OT with Hamblin (and not Savoie – who was presumably next up with Griffith).
Caggiula with a terrible offensive zone turnover and Carrick forced to take a holding penalty to thwart a break away.
Hamblin loses the first faceoff clean and off the inside of the bar 2 second later.
Philp loses then next PK clean, a shot breaks Kemp’s stick for a 4 vs. 2.5 but a save out of play saves the Condors for now.
Hamblin loses the 3rd PK Faceoff clean and 30 seconds later Rodrigue with a huge save on a cross-seam one-timer.
Savoie wins the 4th PK faceoff and they kill it off.
The play 4 on 4 until 15 seconds left where Savoie draws a penalty.
Thanks, I don’t get to watch the Condors.
Condors give up the go-ahead goal (tip on a rush) but the Philp, D’Amato, Griffith line cycles and gets a break with a puck off a skate to tie it at 3 with just a few minutes left.
Philp might get the secondary – I was just thinking of posting that, on merit, he’s behind both Hamblin and Savoie for the forward call-up later this week.
Nope, Dineen with the secondary assist, no Philp.
Savoie with a backhand cross-crease pass on a rush but Caggiula is hooked so it goes off the far side boards, Attard takes it off the carom and lasers one home to tie the game at 2.
Savoie and Hamblin with the assist.
I love when Perrault flashes his skill – goes between his legs on a 3 on 1 and ends up getting to the net and hooked down as he was going cross-crease (got a decent shot away as he was falling – no goal but drew the PP).
After some good offensive zone work, Griffith with a great cross ice pass to Kemp who dusts if off and snaps one high glove from distance for a 1-0 lead.
Savoie with a great zone entry and dish to the flanks to starts the play – don’t think he will get an assist though.
Just want to say how much we appreciate these updates.
Kemp putting management on notice these last couple games.
What is his play like in general compared to previous years? Has he taken any developmental strides, or lost ground in any areas?
Pretty much more of the same – his game is his game – not sure why the org will let him go to Group 6 UFA with never giving him a chance.
There was not reason not to give him the games they have Josh Brown, at least.
Condors get to play against Jordan Eberle tonight (presuming he’s in the lineup – he’s on the CV roster on a conditioning stint.
Eberle not playing.
Rodrigue gets both ends of the back to back (with less than 24 hours between start times).
And a 3 hour bus ride.
Yup but, from accounts, their bus is quite the fancy bus….
I hope Matt can succeed in the NHL. It would be a win. His skill level for the AHL by the sounds is tracking well. One has to wonder if he can bring it to the NHL where players are bigger stronger and faster. Matt may need a season or 2 in the NHL to develop his man strength. Holloway is much more developed in the strength department than Savoie
Past week it was Gregor on the radio talked about how NHL ice is much better size than Olympic sized ice. I disagree.
Last night was another example.
When kids are tiny might they play half ice surface. Then they grow. And grow again.
Today’s players are faster than any time in history and frankly, they need more ice surface.
A good checker with some speed can eliminate a high skill player. It’s much easier to check, knock the puck away and the smaller ice surface is an advantage.
I have no idea how it could occur but I’d like to see the ice surface expand by 10-15 percent.
Absolutely not.
Kids should play full ice. While coaching I’ve been dealing with kids taught the game completely improperly for the past 3 years because of this half ice garbage. So many bad habits it is almost silly.
Further – international ice leads to defensive hockey, not offensive hockey. This has been shown over and again. BO-RING.
Canada’s mistake is two-fold: they’re trying to play rush hockey which is not winning hockey without a low/shooting attack to balance it. Second – they forgot that you win these things by having elite players in the bottom of your lineup. Any of these international squads can shut down one or two lines. No one could shut down four lines of the best pure Canadian talent. Not a chance.
Well let’s see. If kids can barely skate, half ice is acceptable. They want to actually skate net to net so I see no problem with this.
The proven “small ice is better,” im not buying it. There was a time, not anymore. It’s as if the kids got bigger and faster again. NHL era can handle more ice than midget level players. Give them some room.
Connor McDavid was his fastest pre 2017. He had to slow it down, runs out of ice. He gets easier to shadow the more they can box him out, the less room he has.
We witnessed a Stanley Cup run where we a more talented line up shut down by a line up with aggressive defending.
And we just seen it again yesterday. To say not a chance is delusional. We just seen it! Yesterday! Sub out a player or two and put in another offensively gifted and the outcome is the same. If they can shut down a McDavid line you can shut down any line.
The message is clear, you need more than just offensive talent to win.
Unless of course, you open up the ice to allow offensive talent to wheel, move, attack.
That is the point. I don’t see the game getting past hacking and holding , effectively nullify talent, until you open up the ice.
Skill is not the most important element of hockey for the NHL.
The NHL prefers toughness, game management and marketing.
That was always my position too, but I’m starting to reconsider.
When the US plays the way that Vegas shut us down in 2023 or Florida in 2024, I wonder if there’s more of a need for guys who are elite grinders/muckers. If there’s not much room, you gotta score garbage goals by going to the net. Guys like Bennett and Hagel are more likely to do that than guys like Suzuki or Scheifele.
Also, the US was clearly finishing their checks last night, and I liked having a team that was eager to return the favour. Sam Bennett may be a punk, but at least for a few games, he’s our punk.
Larger ice provides methods to deter skill – its the greatest equalizer as it allows less skilled teams to compete with more skilled teams. Less skilled teams can play a structure that pushes everything to the outside which is so much farther away from the net
Larger ice provides methods to deter skill?
Don’t you mean smaller ice? If the last Stanley Cup Final series was played on international ice, the Oilers skill would have destroyed the Panthers.
Larger ice means more options to attack the middle, more skill is required. Small ice means physical contact reigns supreme, typical NHL, NFL, USA.
100% it does – it stifles offence- its been proven for decades.
It allows teams to push everything so far away from the slot and the net and is why teams like Latvia pull the odd upset against the hockey powers.
Holloway is gone because he signed the offer sheet. And in doing so it is an insult to your present team.
It sounds like his logic was reasonable, but that doesn’t matter, you sign that sheet and you are instantly unpopular.
McDavid made his distaste very obvious.
Holloway had talent and it was easy to see. He was a keeper. Many offer sheets are presented that stay quiet. But sign that sheet and is a trip out the front door.
Having said all this, in my opinion, Holloway should have been a priority, and when the player feels like a priority they stay loyal. There was a communication mistake here somewhere with the management team in my opinion.
About 95% of the players who have signed offer sheets say hello.
Was Shea Weber any less respected in the Nashville locker room after signing that gargantuan offer sheet with Philly?
I was not there but I think Yes.
You and I go to work, we follow the process, we get our raise of 5%
our coworker thinks he’s underpaid. He doesn’t go in and ask for more. He goes to another company and gets an offer. He then goes in to negotiate with our company and gets himself 25%.
Yes, there is resentment. And even if management pays up because perhaps they had to, they remember it.
It’s a culture thing very much alive. Regardless what players say publicly. That is the real reason we see very few offer sheets.
easy to look back and say the Oilers shoulda matched Holloway; nobody expected Arvidsson and Skinner to contribute so little, yet here we are
Some of us advocated for keeping Holloway and letting Broberg walk. The value/risk calculation wasn’t outside the realm on Holloway and he fit the team skill set wise. On Broberg it was nuts.
Indeed, at the time, it was totally nuts.
What hurts now is that Broberg is earning his contract.
(And Holloway is outplaying his.)
Is he? Hot start but, in his last 30 games he’s 4th for TOI/G at 5 on 5, 7 total points and a 40% goal shares (46% expected at 5 on 5).
Does not play when they pull their goalie and is 2nd unit defending the 6 on 5.
He’s a defensive 4D who has been under water.
I’m here for your ramblings about Savoie. That’s the good stuff. The only failing is caving to the masses, I want the full LT experience, bring back CLR! 😝
I’m here to get excited about Dragan Umicevic! I’m here for the vollman sledgehammer!
I’m here for Teemu Hartikanen! He is only 34 and having a hell of a season, the dream isn’t over!
I’m here for stories about camping boxes/coffins!
Please keep telling me about Savoie. Please keep telling me about your driveway in Maidstone. Please keep telling me about the Hockey News.
Please keep doing what you do so well.
Anyone who thumbs downed this comment is not a gentleman or a real fan of this website. You should look elsewhere for your hockey news. You’re not good enough for LT. His stas, opinion, and brilliant folksy writing are all what makes this site magic.
For all the talk about the toughness of the Tkachuk brothers this morning, Brady fought a far smaller player in Bennett and Matthew looks to have taken himself out the tournament with his idiocy. Meanwhile St. Albert’s own Colton Parayko demonstrated that JT Miller is no Sam Bennett when he absolutely rag dolled him in their mismatch.
Apparently the Tkachuk brothers wanted to send a message at the start of the game. Unfortunately for them, the hockey world already knew they were a couple morons. Message received.
The entire Tkachuk family are ham&egger asshats who are super competitive with skill . I’ll take a Tkachuk on my team all-day every day. Taking Jesse instead of Tkachuk probably cost us a Cup and counting.
The daughter/Sister. Looks like both of them. Poos gal
No doubt Holloway is a success and much more value for cap hit than Philip Broberg, to this point – and Broberg is having a fine season.
I’m happy for Holloway and also frustrated by the circumstances this past August.
I’m starting to have little doubt that Savoie will be able to put up numbers at the NHL level. I truly think that, given his style of game, he will be even more impactful when playing with high skill and highly intelligent offensive players and offensive players that dominate the puck. Savoie doesn’t need the puck on his stick for lengths of time – quick, smart and skilled plays with the puck, including in small spaces, is a key part of his game. Seemingly a perfect stylistic fit for Leon Draisaitl, in time
How tough would either Tkachuk be if they were lined up against Tom Wilson? At least JT was man enough to drop them with a large dude in Parayko
It just makes me question the makeup of the Canadian team. The sectors should have seen the American / Tkachuk tactics coming and adjusted the roster accordingly. It’s a shame to see that sort of thing affect the outcome of the 4 Nations tournament. I guess fighting is still a large part of Hockey, it’s hard to get away from.
I think they saw those tactics coming long before the tournament started. Hence the choices of Bennett, Hagel, Cirelli, Jarvis, etc. I disliked it at the time but now see the wisdom.
Just watched the replay of Canada vs US. That was not good hockey. Besides McDavid goal there was next to no skilled plays. Staged fights and off the glass and out. What a display of defense first hockey.
Canada vs Sweden was much better.
Once the offer sheets were signed the players were gone. It was a warning to future players that if you want to be part of the team you don’t sign offer sheets. It’s unfortunate that once skinner was signed Holloway felt his spot and future income was threatened. It’s unfortunate because he’s the player type this team really values
I disagree, I think this is going to be a new weapon from GM’s, especially the ones in the middle of a rebuild. So teams are going to have to be matching if they want to keep young talent. A 2nd and a 3rd for 2 1st round young picks is an absolute joke. I even think a lot of players that are young RFA’s with talent are not going to sign those 1 – 1.5 mill 2nd contracts and wait for the chance to get more on an offer sheet. You can guarantee the agents will go that route with these kids or at least advise them of that.
Look at D man Emberson. He is having a really solid year here. There was all this talk about them working on a deal with him and then all of a sudden he changes agents. Now crickets. Now for all I know his old agent was telling him to hold off. And maybe he fired him because he wants to be here and wants a deal now. Who knows for sure. .
Would someone empty the bank for Bouchard ? No idea.
I do think the offer sheets are going to be aimed at guys like Holloway and Broberg on the cusp and you only give up a 2nd or 3rd. .
It could be a very interesting few years.
I can’t believe a team like Calgary didn’t jump all over Holloway and Broberg this past year
Calgary reportedly tried to. We only usually find out the offer sheets that are signed, and not the ones that are sitting on a players desk.
Gonna have way more offer sheets in the near future
That’s interesting
Why should Holloway be threatened by some competition from an aging NHL vet?
He should have stepped up as an Oiler and proven himself once and for all. But he decided to take the money and run.
Well he came out and said that he was worried about the length of his career after his wrist issues and Skinner was brought in to take his spot. We say one thing but guessing most of us would leave our job if offered an extra million
The Oilers offer to Holloway was a 3-year deal at $1 million AAV. That is why he signed the offer sheet, NOT Jeff Skinner.
The Oilers effectively told Holloway…we do not believe in you as a hockey player with that offer. There was no economic upside to proving the Oilers wrong. The Oilers put him in a cage. The only way out was the offer sheet.
This is dishonest – the Oilers had 1, 2 and 3 year offers on the table for Holloway – from informed accounts.
I guess you didn’t find the Canada/USA game very interesting that’s too bad.
LT mentioned it’s “Wonderful hockey”… would it make the statement better if he was an iPhone user and ‘sent it with cartwheels’?
I would rather hear what he thought of last night’s game rather than rehash about Dylan Holloway, thank you very much.
Maybe click on the donate button and send LT some funds along with your request. For the price he charges (i.e. $0) he can write whatever entertains him and should receive nothing but 5 star ratings on each post.
How self-righteous of you to say so.
U.S of A was motivated more than our team Canada. I do expect Canada to roll on Finland and be super pumped to show what Canada is made of in Boston.
This is an Oilers blog. We have three players, I think, in this tournament. Also LT likes to steer away from politics and stick to hockey, and it’s his blog. It is very hard to split last night’s game from politics. I have been here during lockouts and LT always makes sure there’s a blog, even when the Oil aren’t playing. I would suggest if you want to read and remark about last night, try Reddit? Maybe NHLcirclejerk sub? They are very educated on that one and have been posting excellent points of view on the game.
You’re intitled to your opinion.
*Entitled. Oh yes, go away.
Lol, you literally trash talked our host after he explained to you why he didn’t write about last night in the first paragraph. I merely pointed out there are other forums for you to take part in the discourse you desire. But you do you.
Cowboy bill makes me miss dsf!
Unproductive and condescending doesnt further conversation!
It’s your opinion I trash talked LT. But nothing could be further from the truth. Not sure where you get that from. I expressed disappointment about not hearing his thoughts on a huge hockey game between the US & Canada because I appreciate his opinion, I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t. I also respect the opinions of all of you. We don’t always agree but it’s fun banter most of the time. How’s the weather in Hinton?
The hockey in the 4 Nations has been extremely entertaining AND the patriotism on display is exactly the unifier that Canada needs at this moment in history. A win/win.
In 72, Russia was the Evil Empire leading to Henderson’s immortal goal. Wouldn’t it be something if McDavid had a similarly iconic goal in him in the final against the current evil empire?
First things first. Beat Finland. Go Canada!!!
Yes it would, but the equivalent player to Paul Henderson on this Team Canada is someone like Brandon Hagel.
With hindsight being 20/20… and having never taken on the Holloway subject publicly, I will say that, in my opinion he would have most likely made the bet to match the scoring of Arvidsson. If LT’s math is correct and Savoie can match Holloway’s output we’ll have a real player here soon. Unfortunately, Arvidsson has not impressed me much this season, I’ll give him 8.5 on falling down continuously, and a strong 6.5 on getting injured, so there’s obviously a size limitation.
I hope this rant is going somewhere… I have however posted that Savoie’s size is similar if not slightly larger than Nuge’s frame. What I’m hoping for in Savoie is someone who can score at 5×5 greater than 50%, not get knocked down nearly every shift and be hard on the forecheck and be a top 9 forward. If that’s the case I see no place for Arvidsson in our lineup as early as next year.
Holloway showed in the finals, especially how he had progressed and was getting time with Drai how good he could be. Does the Letting him go show how bad our pro scouting was or is? With Arvidson’s injury status over the past 6 seasons he had only played over 60 games twice. Maybe his body is a bit beat up and that is finally showing this year. His shooting ( he shoots a lot) is terrible. But I guess in 22 games last year including the playoffs he had 18 points which is really good so maybe the scouts figured he was still really solid. I thought he was going to be a lot better. Skinner at least seems to be coming around .
Holloway is gone and that sucks that he is really breaking out in St Louis. The Oilers really miss his speed for sure. Would have been so nice to have both he and Savoie in the fold next year.
I would really like to see Savoie in the lineup next Saturday against Philly. Not sure we will.
The plan when Arvidsson was signed (and Skinner) was to also have Holloway (and Broberg) on reasonable 2nd contracts in line with historical market comparables. The offer sheets changed everything.
Why are you talking about Dylan Holloway?
Uh… because it’s on par with our host and alter egos subject matter for the day…
Because the poster that I responded to was talking about him, so I chimed in. Can you not see that . Just weird
That’s weird because I wasn’t even responding to you.
There is more to Mr. Arvidsson than we’ve yet scene this year w the Oilers. I remember him as a pesky and persistent player when Oilers played Kings in playoffs. I’m liking what I’m seeing from him on Team Sweden. I’m hoping he brings this to the regular season and playoffs after Four Nations.
As for the Savoie and Holloway conversation, my thought is that SLB are giving him good development. Savoie deserves similar slow and sheltered development. Patience.
test
5 x 5
25
35
5²
Acles.
I think we have to start having the conversation that Tyler Wright was the shits.
Talk of Wright and the Goalie Coach is heresy and is punishable by up to 5 years in the gulag.
Great entertainment last night.
Apparently you can defend McDavid, MacKinnon Matthews ect. without assigning a 35 year old past his prime to hook and hold and tackle a great player.
Yes, it was. It’s too bad Canada couldn’t score on that first PP after the Tkachuk’s planned mayhem to start the game, that might have changed the complexion of the game. It was just enough to get Canada off their game right off the opening faceoff. McDavid’s goal was the only highlight for Canada, too bad it didn’t hold up as the game winner. Hellybuck didn’t have to be spectacular because the Americans defended like demons. The game actually could have gone either way, but Binnington let in too, too many goals, other than that he was terrific. God help them against the Finns, and we see a rematch in Boston.
This tournament should never have been a thing. An injury to Ekholm or Mcdavid can and probably would be fatal for their cup chances.
Have the World Cup with all the teams in the summer. At least then there is time to prepare a back up plan should someone get hurt.
I wouldn’t support Olympic involvement either. Let the amateurs have their platform. Both tournaments are greed based. In my opinion.
Definitely should have matched on Holloway. Broberg too, could have sorted it out in the summer and likely got a better return.
IMO this comment misses the point. The Olympics/Best on Best are about building the game to be much, much better. Basketball understood this and took off.
Sweden, Finland and Canada are small populations and these countries represent about 50% of the NHL players.
Imagine if another 500 great hockey players were available to the NHL from non traditional hockey countries like China, India, Saudi Arabia. This is the role of best on best games/olympics.
The NHL began its expansion of player nationalities in the 1970s when players hailed from the USA, Sweden & Finland. The share of Canadians in the league dropped to 75% by the 1980s and is now slightly less than 50%.
This season 29.5% NHL players are American.
I have to say the Americans are definitely catching up. Maybe some time down the road there will be more Americans playing in the NHL than Canadians.
I don’t think India and Saudi Arabia spend much time on the Winter Olympics.
Best on best for your country is unbeatable.
I mentioned a while back that this is the worst year for an Oil fan given the injury/fatigue potential. There are many other fans (for lesser teams) that are thrilled right now.
Surely you can see that the opportunity to view people who are the best in the world at something compete against each other has more value than financial insurance underwriting calculations.
Yes,I would like to, as I said in the post, the World Cup in the summer. It was a great tournament until they got rid of it.
Lots of differing opinions on this.
I am more on your page.
I find the olympics is the wrong stage as well actually. Because. The olympics was always for amature athletes. It has been greed, not the sport that has driven the olympic committies to bring in pros. Most of the competitions you are still ineligible if you are a professional. But things like hockey, basketball they saw that the interest was lacking so pushed to have pros.
Personally for best on best, in the spirit of what the olympics is supposed to be, should be the world cup.
And if you really want the best result playing not during the middle of the season when players are already banged up would be better.
But again, each has his own opinion. My passion is for the structured, long grind of a full season. Short tournments, no matter the talent level are shallow to me.
I liked the olympic hockey when it was amateurs. It was the only part of the olympics besides skiing I watched as a kid.
My opinion differs.
The players do not want to play a best on best tournament in their short summer after an 82 games grind (plus up to 25 playoff games for some).