I have been impressed with Stan Bowman’s small moves through this season. Bringing in talents like Vasily Podkolzin and Ty Emberson, scanning the waiver wire, signing veterans who want to make a comeback. It’s the kind of managing this team needs, allowing the few young prospects in the system to mature, and play for the Oilers. Recent events, as in this weekend’s ghastly performances, may change all that.
You know, it’s a shame. Teams need inexpensive youth to provide a spark, footspeed, and some hope for a possible future when all the current leaders begin to fade.
Edmonton is in a tough spot today. I would keep the powder dry. I do not believe that will be the case leading up to March 7.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- February result: 2-4-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-19-4, 72 points in 57 games
Nothing has been lost yet, but there is real reason for concern. I don’t think the two losses on the weekend will be remembered for long if the club can perform better over the rest of the week.
THE WEEKEND
Natural Stat Trick isn’t working for me today, and maybe that’s a good thing. I’ve been writing for much of the season about worries over the Connor McDavid line, but fans are more concerned about the goaltending and defenseman Evan Bouchard.
I wouldn’t trade any of the foundation pieces at the deadline. That includes Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Brett Kulak or Stuart Skinner.
The fact there are two skill wingers who didn’t make the foundation list offers (in my opinion) a key to what Stan Bowman should be looking for at the deadline.
Instead, it may be a goalie. That’s going to be a big story when the summer comes and $6 million cap has been added to the roster (or worse, another valuable piece is added in order to pay down the cap hit).
I’m not against bringing in a veteran who is having a good season to push Skinner, but that player should be a free agent this summer and the Oilers should retain Skinner for the final season of his $2.6 million AAV contract.
Who could that be? Karel Vejlmelka, Dan Vladar, Jake Allen. I’m not really sure any of those names would be considered an upgrade. I’m certain no one knows if any of the three will move the needle.
If the Oilers trade for Jordan Binnington ($6 million for two more years after this one) or John Gibson ($6.4 million for two years after this one) the cap impact will be significant.
For a team that is finally reaching a summer where there might be room to wheel, that isn’t the way forward in my opinion. A summer spent adding speed to the forward group, a fourth defenseman to play with Ekholm, Bouchard and Nurse and a large dose of youth across the piece is the play here.
I remain convinced the Oilers can win the Stanley Cup with Evan Bouchard and Stuart Skinner in feature roles.
Bowman should address the biggest issue: The gap between this team’s floor and ceiling. It’s the biggest gap in my lifetime, any sport. Connor McDavid’s line at five-on-five would be a good place to start.
We’re back on the Lowdown and there will be plenty of anger on the text lines. We’ll read all that don’t have profanity. Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and Host of Puck Social will talk about the Oilers incredibly low floor of performance. For such a gifted them, they can sure Mr. Muddle a weekend. Jason Gregor from the JG Show will pop in and talk about the trade deadline and what Stan Bowman might be looking for March 7. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: Eye test vs. analytics: What do you trust in Edmonton Oilers player debates?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6154512/2025/02/24/oilers-stats-bouchard-skinner-debate/
“The trade deadline is the time of year when logic and reason take a holiday.”
Love it!
To Oilers management: Keep the powder dry.
To Oilers fans: Focus on the horizon. Step back from the panic button. This is a good team.
Just because Skinner is an Edmonton boy, does not mean he gets a free pass! My goodness, the media runs Talbot out of town for what was a sub par performance by the entire team, but Skinner gives up the first goal on the first few shots EVERY game, and nothing? His positioning is sub par, he can’t do the splits, or a butterfly slide, his RVH is brutal, and he looks like he’s swimming out there! Time for an upgrade, or at least someone who can push the river. Pickard’s been a good backup, but that’s all he is…
I believed Bowman would change directions on both Goalies in the offseason. Now l’m not so sure I have a feeling Bowman picks up another cheap on assets Goaltender with Pickard being the fall guy. Having a top 5 team with below average Goaltending will get you bounced in the 1st round. Its hard to win meaningful games where your hoping that your Goalie is at best equal with the opponent Backstop.
Strome 27, Dubois 26, Chychun 26, Raddyish 27, Mangiopane 28, Sandin 24, Roy, 29, Thompson 27.
Not one of those guys was 30. They were mostly all entering their prime years, or still in their prime years.
The core of most championship teams are players between 25-30. Doughnut hole rosters almost never win. Superstars have a deep window, typically into their thirties.
Some of these players had acquired yellow or red flags, but the Capitals believed in their coach and in the Ovechkin control of the locker room.
That was/is one hell of a GM’ing and coaching job.
Decisions based on small sample sizes that represent a statistical outlier rarely work out well.
Deciding to reinvent the goaltending and/or d-corps based on two bad games would be a poor decision.
I would agree with you if the sample size was two games,sadly that isn’t the case.
is it really a small sample size though? Or an ongoing thing.
Lots of good thoughts today. I was on board with last summer outside of losing on the offer sheets
Those who weren’t on board may have been right about the team getting too slow, although I wouldn’t have wanted some of the guys back based on two playoff runs, which are what count the most
They need more spark and speed wouldn’t hurt. Unless Bowman goes full Kevin Lowe coming up, I fear yet another reset season while new management change the roster to what they want
The problem with being too slow as managers or timid, not wanting to hurt feelings or caring about the room too much, is that enough other teams don’t care and get better. Like the Caps did. And others. You fall behind and waste super star player’s seasons, only so many to blow
There have been many times this year that I’ve been amazed by this team’s ability to make the puck do the work.
When they’re on, I don’t notice speed as an issue. I actually think nobody will ever stop them.
Now, when they’re off, they look old, slow, and uninterested. It’s almost unwatchable.
Is it simply a lack motivation during stretches of a long season? Waiting for playoffs and turning it on just enough to keep them in it?
I think having someone that causes chaos and brings the team into the fight, could help keep everyone engaged. How many times have we seen the team do better in games when they get pissed off or have a fight.
The goaltending is a clear problem in the moment but we know this tandem has the ability to provide “good enough” goaltending to get this team to game 7 of SCF. Not saying an upgrade isn’t a good idea or anything but just that this tandem has done it within the last year.
Evan Bouchard has had a regression season for sure and he hasn’t recovered yet in recent games. Even with his poor season, he is 8th in d-men scoring and has a goal share at 5 on 5 around 57% (with an expected goal share over 60%). He has been elite/historical two playoffs in a row and, again, like the goaltending, no surety he gets back to the level of last year’s playoffs but its there.
McDavid has been uneven all season long and not as consitently postively impactful as we are used to seeing (not even close) and many games where he is a non-factor. Its just as concerning as the other two issues above.
Since returning from suspension, McDavid has played 8 games and:
- has 1 point at 5 on 5
- has 3 points as even strength
- is 5-14 goals at even strength
- is 3-12 goals at 5 on 5
Very concerning McDavid numbers. If he doesn’t turn that around, this team is out in the first round.
Here’s 3 players Edmonton could acquire at the TDL that wouldn’t break the bank.
Karel Vejmelka & Ollie Maatta from Utah and Trent Frederic from Boston. Three depth pieces that address areas of need.
We can see our weaknesses easily enough, but how easy to fix at the TDL? My view of the trade deadline in the past is that most of the trades don’t move much of a needle for those involved. Once in a while there’s a big score, but mostly it’s “desperation lottery” time
“Can” win a Stanley Cup and “Should” or “will likely” win a Stanley Cup can be 2 different things.
After all, the ’17 team could have won. They certainly were lined up for it.
The trade deadline mistake a lot of teams make is the fixate on “filling gaps”. This shouldn’t be the way.
Upgrades are almost always available, and the deadline is often the cheapest time of year for these, rather than the most expensive, as it is for teams who go looking for a gap filler.
The Oilers should upgrade. Specifically the following players if you can:
Arvidsson
Brown
Kulak
and yes, Stuart Skinner.
The first two partially due to underperformance and partially because despite that underperformance, the coach leans on them like a crutch. Neither can deliver enough to deserve that or serve the team.
Kulak appears to be sputtering out after having been asked to do more. The Oilers D makeup means he cannot be an excellent #6 and has to play essentially a #4 role, so go upgrade him.
With Skinner, a few reasons: his ceiling isn’t high enough to justify the inconsistency, goalies are available (the new goalie market is fascinating), and he still has value if you moved him. I get why people don’t want to, but I’d be looking quite hard, and definitely grabbing a high potential ceiling young guy for the AHL. It is unfortunate Rodrigue didn’t continue his rise. That was looking good for a while.
Stu isn’t bad, but agreed he’s at his ceiling now. I base that on Kevin Woodley’s take. He has some technique issues, and that is exactly what we see when there are weak goals. Binnington does as well, keeps him out of talk about the top goalies. Lots of ability and so athletic, can’t keep his positioning and that causes weaker GA
I don’t think Pick is bad, but a better player can’t hurt at the right price. Kulak had issues last season as well and was better in playoffs, like Janmark . Arvi missed most of last season and like what Brown went through might still be getting his thing together. Also adjusting to the Oilers weird way of playing that seems to cause a lot of players trouble. I’m not sure a replacement fares any better, but won’t be surprised if Bowman tries
I really have no idea what Bowman may or may not do in the next few weeks. What I do know is that he is a very experienced manager and I think it’s unlikely he over-reacts to small sample sizes.
Of course, this roster needs some changes and upgrades but, at the same time, what this roster needs is not necessarily a reflection of the last month but on the season overall, in my opinion.
I mean, the team has been crap from apx 10 games and the last 3 have been brutal. At the same time, the team is tied for 5th overall in the entire league.
Point simply that the last 3-10 games is not necessarily reflective but look at the season as whole.
I would suggest that the likes of Vegas and Dallas and the other teams in the Oilers tier have also had 3-10 game stretches where their play is not indicative of the team generally.
Oilers are slumping and slumping badly – as their competitors have for stretches this year.
If anything, what the Oilers need is their incumbents to get back to historical levels of play, namely: McDavid, S. Skinner, Hyman, Bouchard, Nuge, Ekholm.
Hear hear!
The most important thing for us as fans right now is to trust the depth of talent on this club, and settle ourselves down.
I did not like this last stretch either.
I do not like that Bouchard is still playing mega minutes when he is clearly still suffering from the bonk on the head when Reeves ran him into the goal post.
I think it’s hilarious that there are those who’d swap Skinner for Binnington or Gibson, neither of whom are an upgrade.
I hope we get to see more from McD (though he may be “saving himself” for when it matters; January-February is not when it matters -except at 4N).
Breathe.
As LT says, “Keep your powder dry.”
Go for a walk.
I couldn’t catch either game on the weekend. How does Klingberg look? By what I’ve been reading, he might be a serviceable #2 RHD. Is there any chance they don’t need to upgrade there?
IMO Klingberg is certainly a skilled puck mover that has shown his abilities offensively, but he does lack on the defensive side of things. His partner needs to make up for this deficiency. I don’t know if Nurse is the right guy, maybe he might be a better fit with Ekholm. Bouch can play with either Nurse or Kulak, while Emberson can do the same. With the way Bouch is playing right now maybe some time on the third pairing would send the proper message and at the same time let the coaching staff get a good look at what they have in Klingberg.
I’ve liked what I’ve seen. But he, like pretty much everyone not named Leon, struggled these past two games, defensively.
ps. Jeff Skinner was, to my eye, with Leon and Emberson, another lonely bright spot this weekend.
To my eye Jeff Skinner lacks breakaway speed.
That is indeed what we saw on Sunday: poor breakaway speed.
We also saw a beautiful goal: smart play, great hands.
The Town Heroes – “Take On The World” [Official Video]
I’m new here, but also from NS. Wondering if you ever saw this video The Town Heroes did in partnership with Hockey NS, you’ll like the jerseys they are wearing at the beginning. 🙂
I have, and I love The Town Heroes!
Bad weekend. But who thought this team would come storming out of the gates? This team does not, ever, do that.
There were periods where they dominated and then eventually didn’t get the goal they needed and then sat back and gave up. Pretty lame, but also par for the course with this club, often.
Its in those stretches of dominance that you can still see last years’ team, but they lack, as someone said yesterday, “jam”.
This missing intensity makes them look disjointed and slow, and rudderless. They make lazy plays and don’t win puck battles or execute passes on the PK/PP.
Why are they lacking this “jam”? Or better, how will they find the required motivation to carry that “jam” across a full 60? I think this team needs to add at the deadline, but more important is the constant and necessary mental re-set. This is a team built for a good time, not a long time.
The optimist in me says its the result of a seasonal strategy, perhaps at least somewhat subconscious, of coasting into the playoffs, where they will meet their old friend, The Fear Of God, after which they will start whipping the puck around like they know how to do.
The pessimist in me says: 1) the loss of forward speed was not overcome by scoring veterans after all; 2) Ekholm is a year older and slower and the point on the graph where you find the magic between him and Bouchard has slipped because of Ek’s age in combination with Bouchard’s own “seasonal strategy” (of being not nearly good enough with the puck in either end); 3) McDavid is starting to tire… of what? We may find out; 4) The goaltending we have is good enough for last years’ team but not this years’ team.
I think the pessimist is probably correct here, but these things can be fixed.
I don’t know why these guys can’t figure out how to start on time, whether, after a break, beginning of seasons, beginning of playoff series, and most individual games. Been going on for years now. Goal differential by period tells you all you need to know
Dear Optimist, I’m with you.
Dear Pessimist, On point
1) NHL EDGE says this year’s Oilers are overall slightly faster, with more speed bursts over 33kmh than last years. League rankings remain the same.
2) For at least the past three weeks Ekholm has been sick, plus he got no break over 4N. The man needs the rest his D-partners got (but he won’t get, at what cost? One reason to be unhappy with mid-season exhibition series’s).
3) McD is the mystery. He’s still high in the scoring race, but as Strudwick suggested, may be playing with a “governor.” He was exhausted in Game 7, 2024 and does not want to repeat?
4) Stu Skinner was hot/cold last year. He’s been that this year. Flashes of what had him beat both Oettinger and Bob (in terms of SV%) in spring/summer 2024. Not unlike others who regularly are blamed for their team’s stumbles (eg Binnington, 4N until Final).
Patience dear Pessimist. This is, to my eye, a better team than last year.
Doubt I’ll get much sympathy from those in northern Alberta, but I woke to find my truck battery was dead this morning.
I think the Oilers could use a recharge as well. Will Bowman do a trickle charge (ie: powder dry/depth), or get the Eliminator 5 year warranty (ie: $5M+ player with term).
Putrid results over the weekend that’s a fact.
Trickle charge I’m thinking. This team, like your truck battery, does seem to need some basic maintenance. The PK is a good place to start. As the PK, so the Oilers…
The proximity of the TDL and the poor results in the last 3 games are complicating factors here. But most of the issue right now is the team as a whole is playing poorly, and the coaching staff can’t seem to get them out of that funk. It would make a lot more sense to make the decisions that are needed based on when the team is playing to its potential, and not when they are doing their absolute worst.
When they’re playing to their potential everything is peachy, it’s when they play at their absolute worse the cracks are clearer. This might not be such a bad thing that they’re seeing this now, because they have the opportunity to make the improvements required at the TDL. That’s my view anyways.
Fair enough. I think they aimed too low with the bottom 6 construction last summer (should have kept Holloway!) and the bets for scoring wingers have not paid off. I still think Arvidsson is valuable for the playoffs, so I would keep him, but we need upgrades for Janmark and Brown.
LOL I see Arvidsson, a $4M cap hit with no trade protection and Janmark & Brown as valuable for the playoffs with reasonable contracts.
I thought we had good periods where we cycled and dominated but just couldn’t finish. Then the puck is in the back of our net. Deflates the team. Shoot the puck.
Washington definitely looks like the #1 team in the league. Edmonton can learn something from their roster construction.
You mean catch lightning in a bottle? Chrychrun is scoring well above his historical average, Logan Thompson is playing better than should be expected and there are a couple of other guys who seem to be ignited by Ovi’s chase for overall scoring leader. I think they come crashing to the ground next season but still play better than they did last year. Lucky is not a plan.
I guess we’ll see how that all translates during the playoffs. But I think their style of play could possibly be very successful for a long playoff run.
Rob Brown was commenting on the way they play. Meat and potatoes hockey, and that makes it easier to know what to do. Basically dump and chase, suits the bigger not really fast players, and as Brown said, they aren’t a high skill team up front outside of Ovi, just playing a way that suits the roster, and they are scoring because of it
The Oilers players still don’t seem to know when to do what or where to be shift in and out. It leads to disjointed play and often not great support for the fella with the puck
Oilers are more successful when they keep it simple. There’s something to the way Washington plays and that’s the right way.
And their emphasis on “shoot the puck.” A few too many passes when shots on goal might have made a difference, all season.
That was a terrible weekend.
Lots of things went wrong.
D was terrible
Goaltending wasn’t great for sure
The team was not playing good before the break. They definitely look worse now.
They look really old and slow to be honest.
They really need a #4 D man. Klingberg got a goal but did not look good otherwise.
Bowman really has his work cut out for him. But what can he really do?
I think a lot of the moves they made in the summer have not worked out. Henrique has gone downhill, Arvidson is a bust for sure, Skinner is scoring a bit, but not where we all thought he would be, Brown is ? , Janmark has not been good lately, pods is a gritty 3/4 liner but not a top 6 guy, The D is porous.
I guess it depends on if Kane is back early or if they can use that LTIR $.
I really think this team could lose all 5 on this road trip. Let’s hope not, because then pricing will go up on whoever they try to acquire .
Oil are in a bit of trouble
Would only add the team was not playing good defensive hockey. The forwards were not helping with the way they managed the puck. Back checking was not consistent. They hung their goalies out to dry too many times.
The PK has been atrocious that last 8+ games and I wonder if it’s fatigue, aging players slowing down. Sticks are in the right places, but there have been deflections and cross seam passes that are getting thru that weren’t earlier. You say the goalie needs to make a save – yes. But the goalie also needs help and is not getting it.
PK! Start here. When it’s working, Oilers are flying.
This is spot on. I fear the team has regressed from last year and is missing some chemistry/grit/speed/energy.
And while I agree with the ‘powder dry’ approach, how many more years do we really have?
If Bowman can improve the team with astute trades without kneecapping the cap, he should.
How? Trade a few underperforming players (named above) for others who fill the ‘grit/speed/energy’ mold.
And get the RHD we have needed for years. Bouch is inconsistent. Klinger is a hope and a prayer. Emberson is rising. The others are placeholders/fill ins.