Since Kris Knoblauch and his staff took over the coaching of Edmonton Oilers, the team’s ability to identify issues and quickly overcome them is a key to overall success.
Knoblauch is the first Oilers coach to guide the club to the Stanley Cup final since MacT in 2006. He’s also one of four (MacT, plus Glen Sather and John Muckler) to get the Oilers that far.
This season, the team has been more focused on goal suppression, with the strategy impacting both offense and defense. Is it worth it?
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- February result: 2-4-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-19-4, 72 points in 57 games
The Oilers are on pace for 104 points, a total that will get them into the playoffs easily while also being zero threat for the Pacific Division crown. In all honesty, shutting down Leon Draisaitl is impossible but the rest of the roster is a Sunday drive so far this month.
Everyone knows they are trying hard, but the number of players who can’t score and or outscore on the Connor McDavid line is truly shocking.
NUMBERS WITH 97 (PTS-60; GOAL SHARE) (FIVE-ON-FIVE)
- Leon Draisaitl: 3.93; 63 pct
- Vasily Podkolzin 2.94; 67 pct
- Viktor Arvidsson 2.08; 29 pct
- Connor Brown: 1.91; 43 pct
- Zach Hyman 1.52; 57 pct
- Kasperi Kapanen 1.5; 40 pct
- Corey Perry 1.35; 44 pct
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.29; 53 pct
- Jeff Skinner 0.98;11 pct
What an absolute dog’s breakfast. Holy crap. I wonder if Knoblauch’s suppression system has taken the heart out of McDavid’s game. I have zero evidence, and injury is the first thing that rolls around in my brain, but holy hell what a mess. Now, let’s look at McDavid’s numbers with each of these men.
97 NUMBERS WITH: (PTS-60; GOAL SHARE) (FIVE-ON-FIVE)
- w/Leon Draisaitl: 3.21; 63 pct
- w/Zach Hyman: 2.82; 57 pct
- w/Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 2.26; 53 pct
- Kasperi Kapanen 2.26; 40 pct
- Vasily Podkolzin 1.96; 67 pct
- Corey Perry 1.35: 44 pct
- Connor Brown 1.27; 43 pct
- Viktor Arvidsson 1.04; 29 pct
- Jeff Skinner 0.98; 11 pct
McDavid was 4.05 points-60 with Hyman last season, boasting a 67 percent goal share. The McDavid-Hyman duo is the best available past the Glimmer Twins on the ice together, but the goal scoring is way down.
Important to note the minutes: 97-Hyman (553); 97-Nuge (372); Draisaitl (336); Connor Brown (94); Corey Perry (89); Kapanen (80); Skinner (61); Podkolzin (61); Viktor Arvidsson (57).
At five-on-five this season, Edmonton is 2.62 GF and 2.39 GA (52 pct). Last year, those numbers were 2.9 GF and 2.3 GA (56 pct). The goal suppression efforts have delivered very little in actual goal suppression. Meanwhile, the scorers are off the pace by enough for this to be a concern.
Edmonton’s previous coaches during the McDavid-Draisaitl era let the horses run, but I’m hopeful Knoblauch stays the course and insists on structure and usage of the middle part of the ice for breakouts as an option.
I don’t have an answer for the McDavid line dilemma. I also don’t understand why the Glimmer Twins are scoring at last year’s rates. They are 4.46-60 and 63 percent this year at five-on-five, last year it was 4.89-60 and 64 percent.
My list of possible issues are injury, Hyman falling back to earth, Nuge no longer getting to plays (speed issues), McDavid’s natural tendency to pass instead of shoot, the coaching staff preferring battles along the wall to the freewheelin’ Connor McDavid.
I am impressed with Knoblauch and his staff. Their ability to MacGyver a solution to problems over the piece is a big storyline for this team. It’s possible Knoblauch is meeting his Everest.
A busy day on the Lowdown, as we tee up tonight’s Oilers game. We hit the airwaves at noon, Sports 1440. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join us, we’ll chat Toronto Blue Jays and MLB Cactus and Grapefruit baseball, and the NBA. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Well, they have not been a physical presence for years now; they have chosen how the team is built, and they have to win their one way. When it’s not working, they have nothing. Live by the sword, die by it. If anyone thinks one dimension will win, good luck. You just have to look back at the four nations. Oh they need a capable 1A or 1B to offset the erratic Skinner.
Just admit you want Mike Peca over 97 already
Well, that’s a stupefying comment. Here we are near the apex of 97 career with one final appearance, and you add nothing to the conversation. A mike Peca type on the 3rd line would look great BTW
Bowman has 9 days to decide what he’s going to do about this season – without screwing up the future.
What’s the team identify? Right now, they are small, perimeter guys that don’t get to the tough areas. Can you offload any of that before the deadline or do you have to do that over the summer.
Yes, teams go through slumps, and I’d rather it happen now than in April/May. But this team is not built to win when it counts.
They are not small. Almost this exact team went to game 7 of the final last year against a team that had OEL on the 3rd pair.
Exact team? Holloway fast hits good size, Kane until finals big, hits, Ceci, big , Broberg fast bigger, Foegel big , fast , hits, McLeod super fast . That’s not near the team that played last night
***Almost***. The core pieces are there. The people who play the heart of the game are not small perimeter guys. Mcleod was the definition of perimeter guy. If you miss Warren Foegele i question if you watched the playoff run at all. Holloway was playing 9 minutes a night.
Missing Ceci is like missing your ex’s goldfish. Why?
“Here’s a little song I wrote / You might want to sing it note for note / Don’t worry, be happy”.
you are on the money… just rewatch the four nations; different types of players are needed.
Did anyone else notice the way McD (barely) lifted the 4 Nations cup? Wondering if wrist issue or something around there has impact on the puck getting knocked off his stick or loosing the puck this year
Most of the players did quick lifts. It was not the Stanley Cup. It was not an Olympic gold medal. They were not going to act like they won anything that mattered in terms of hardware. They were not going to anything to give the Americans locker room fodder for the Olympics.
The game and win was important, but not as important as the one next year.
Seems to be shooting the puck hard and giving out cross checks here and there
Two rookie HC in a row. Both lost the handle a year or whatever in
Its not easy coaching generational players
they should break the cycle and bring in JQ
Buddy thinks a road trip pays a dividend
Spencer Knight in goal tonight as the Panthers beat Nashville 4-1
Bobrovsky likely for Thursday.
I had brisket tonight. Risotto likely for Thursday.
KK may figure it out but that’s not where this team is at age wise
There aren’t a couple of development seasons to further waste. Not saying all in and further depleted. Change what isn’t working
Move on to proven, others do just because with coaches. Players not delivering as well in the here and now
Turnovers are brutal as well.
Anyway, hopefully McDavid can score a 5v5 point in March. Though his wingers are absolute ghosts so that doesn’t help.
This is nuts. Our defense has disappeared. Our scorers are drawing blanks (excepting Leon). Our goalies seem to have lost what mojo they had. We need to kill the witch and have the spell removed… GM and Coach, it’s all on you.
Or just like wait 2 weeks.
What’s going to happen if they lose the next two, which is very likely. Will there be HC change or atleast bring in JQ as a tandem HC? Bowman doesn’t have enough bullets to make any significance upgrades, unless he trades McDavid.
Maybe send Knobber up to the PB to watch a few games with Skinner
We can swap the Skinners and Bouch can join them in the PB
Why is it likely
KK is out of his league . Having the two best forwards in the league hides a lot of sins
Like the guy, like Nuge and Hyman, but it’s balls out big boy time, no excuses. Connor and Leon tried
What do you have when it’s not easy???
Apparently not much. 06 change ups for me done reasonably. Pro sports is tough.They’ve been paid. No touchy feelies. Connor isn’t available forever
Learn some strong sticks for Pete’s sake at least
Connor McDavid has not been helping hide sins over the last month.
True and see what has happened. Maybe nobody can get them all going at the same time
These boys must have really enjoyed the break and seem like they would have preferred to continue on with it. They have no interest in competing.
They were pretty shitty before the break for a bunch of games
What a fire drill that PK was. This game should have been 8 1.
ESPN crew not holding back their criticism of Oilers passive play and their obvious holes
Summarizing!
Neither Lachance nor Copponi impacted the scoresheet. They shall not enjoy soup, but rather boiled radishes.
Should have pulled the goalie. What was he thinking.
That’s a frustrating call to make. You allow a mugging of Mcdavid and a cross check to Drai first then call the retaliation.
Team kinda stinks right now.
Like Savoie’s game.
This team needs way to many fixes as it sits currently.
It’s like they got twice as slow over the break ffs.
Not sure Bowman has the resources period to help this team out by next Friday.
Skinner was great in the 1st, but that 1st goal in the 2nd was bad. After that the team just went ?
Tampa can check
We need to send Savoie back down, Keeping him in this environment might expose him to a losing culture that could affect his development and mindset. 🤪
This is the worst 4 game stretch they have played since KK took over last year.
I don’t have an explanation for how badly they have been outplayed, but they just dropped from 1st to 3rd in the division in one foul swoop (P%). They better all get their shit together.
At this rate we’re lucky to make the playoffs
I’m not sure we can give Kris K too much credit for adapting.
I don’t see him creating energy and I see him going back to same tactics.
Teams have absolutely evolved a defense of boxing out the Oilers and it works. It’s well scouted. Kris has not been able to adapt.
On the back end Coffee turned the players loose and it worked, but he did not teach them defence. It is so, so, so easy to get in front of Skinner and get open. It’s embarrassing.
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
Thats the fourth line. Pick best available for top 6
Go out and find a third line at the deadline. Big, fast, tenacious identity line that won’t quit.
This regression is not in my opinion about player changes
Yes Holloway would have helped, but it’s more than that
They aren’t playing winning hockey regardless of how long they can keep the puck on the offensive boards
Any team with Connor and Leon should be ripping both ways with no problem, as every team does against us this season it seems
Teams slump but to me this is a different thing
Ya There were not a lot of great scoring chances by the Oilers. They are a very easy team to box out it seems.
Agree with this. Don’t think KK has the right player mix available to him – was a curious offseason. Get a 3rd line that competes with speed and more aggrression. There’s at least 5 Forwards that won’t be missed on this team if anyone actually wants them at their salaries.
D won’t be fixed until Bouchard and Ekholm return to form. Not sure what that’s going to take.
Would take an elite G to cover up for how this team is playing in front of whoever has the pads on. Don’t seem to be any of those available
Wow…Bouch sucks… he really does play like he doesn’t give a $hit.
But clearly Ekholm is the problem with the first pairing.
They are playing demoralized. Time for coaches to change the narrative or go, or at least HC
This isn’t an emerging team. St Louis canned a decent fella when a more proven one came available
It’s a tough ride at the top. There is no other way. Nice guy crap wastes critical seasons
T Hall for J Skinner. Skinner and Super Nintendo Chalmers are not going to work it out.
Unbelievable that Skinner goes from building chemistry with Draisaitl, creating offence before the break, to the fourth line when play resumes. So he scores a goal from the fourth line last game, then he gets rewarded with the press box. Talk about side burns
At this rate, we could very well go o-Fer on this road trip.
And have our hands full with Ducks a week from now,I mean it.
Depth scoring and team defense for Tampa. It’s a thing. A thing the Oilers are missing despite being touted as one of the deepest offensive teams prior to the season. Offensive is definitely a word I would use to describe many of the depth players this year. Not in a good way.
Can add in Goaltending as well. Much more complete team
They definitely aren’t, but we’re making them look that way tonight. But lets not give the TBL too much credit. They are well coached but they don’t have the horses we do
Vasilevski, hedman, point, kucherov, Guentzel, hagel, cerelli, paul , mcdonough, cernak
The goaltending alone gives them a massive leg up – mostly goalie
93 a non factor on the back check there
There but not really there. Kind of like Bouch on goal 2. In the right place.. sort of.. at the right time even but doing nothing helpful
No excuses. Before the break it was illness, fatigue. What’s the excuse now? All lines getting outplayed now.
Have a seat Bouchard
Scotty looks great for 91 years young. Very sharp still too. I would happily listen to him talk for a very long time.
Scotty looks fantastic one of the most fierce and competitive managers in hockey.
This F$&@ing team hahah
Savoie on pace for ~12 mins tonight. I would be giving him a few extra shifts. His compete level is high, and he can really fly. Oilers could use more compete and speed for sure.
Not hard to look good among this bunch. I like him as well.
WHEN CAN I START TO PANIC?!?!
Horrible again tonight.
Skinner is the reason their PK is bad, but that’s not why they’re losing.
Skinner is also the reason they are only down 3-1
Hagel goal was AWFUL but other than that he has been very good.
Drai has been amazing tonight other than that – a bunch of meh – McDavid showing some signs of life.
I think the PK goal was again some bad luck but those shouldn’t be floating through from that far out. It’s a theme, as well as his poor lateral movement/reading the play on the PK. Was Janmark not supposed to try and block it? That was on Skinner
Even with those 2 poor goals against, he has saved a few great chances
And hard to win with 1 goal and tons of missed opportunities to shoot the puck
Hagel’s goal was Bouchard’s fault.
Don’t be ridiculous – NHL goalies don’t get beat on wraparounds like that – ever.
Bouchard was standing around watching Hagel do it instead of stopping him.
Too many forwards are just non factors on this team right now. Hyman, Arvidsson, Podkolzin, RHN, Janmark, Brown, Henrique, Perry, Kapanen.
Would have been easier to list the ones who are a factor, but this emphasizes the point. Many of these guys are getting soft minutes against the other teams bottom forwards as McDavid and Draisaitl take on the toughs, and still they can’t get anything done.
Then add in Bouchard and Skinner brain cramps and here we are
As MacT says – you have to at least be a threat to score
Very, very sadly the roster needs yet another overhaul
Too many vanilla players, fellas that can’t figure it out, or too old and have lost high end drive
It’s hard to trade all the players …..
Hopefully we are sick, and we are giving all of these teams a Flu.
Losing this bad going into a trade deadline will be interesting.
I didn’t know shot suppression meant,on our own team.
Man this team’s compete level is at a seaon low. 29 and 97 are the only ones that can gain the O zone
That 2 on 1 was almost as frustrating as the e wrap around. Your team is down 3-1, needs a spark, you finally get a break and decide to pass it into a sprawling blue liner instead of shooting it on the cleanest look you might get all game.
The dam is eventually going to break and this team will click again, but man. Can’t come soon enough.
Sail on Stuart Skinner. You looked decent for a few months there
So how many deals can Bowman make? This floundering team needs help.
More than external acquisitions, this team needs its underperforming players to get back to normal levels of play including:
McDavid
Hyman
Nuge
Bouchard
Ekholm
Arvidsson
Henrique
whats it gonna he 6 against again?
8
Le sigh
Our PK is 26 th? Woof…..
And PK SV% 29th
Pod is way too straight forward. Fake and shoot, Everyone knows everyone is looking for Leon
Butter soft Bouchard.
Some players can’t handle constant pressure. They might be able to handle playoff pressure, but not the ‘lense’. Some can’t focus for 82 games, Janmark, Kulak and whomever
I think Bouch is that guy. He is so off it’s amazing. Any defenseman knows how to defend that play. Stick checks are ok, if you succeed. He’s not Lidstrom
I now think he wants out. Need a haul coming back
Maybe we can trade him for a smooth skating Swede wearing a Blues jersey ?????????
Couple more goals against until the Oilers can exhale knowing Skinner is finally into the game.
Bowman needs to find a Roloson immediately.
Give me a break. He has been the only thing keeping this game close. He is not getting much help.
Well that was putrid.
a wrap around seriously
We need a true #1 goalie. That should never go in.
Brutal…