At this point, a room full of Oilers fans is basically tower of Babel. No one is pleased, and no one can agree on the root of the problem. An up to date word cloud would include Skinner, Bouchard, offer sheet match, McDavid worry, turnovers, slow wingers, bad decisions, ghastly coverage, indifference, lack of effort, fire Dustin Schwartz, Evander Kane health, trade deadline, thank God for Leon.
The nature of the verbal ranges from mild irritation to something close to out of control. The Edmonton Oilers, right in the middle of a quality season, are melting down and the fans don’t understand. I think that’s a fair assessment.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-3-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- February result: 2-5-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-20-4, 72 points in 58 games
The Oilers players are haplessly hoping they can pull out of this slump, and the coaching staff must be at least a little worried about what may come. It would be shocking to see a coaching change, but Kris Knoblauch’s job is to find solutions and this team looks exactly like John Candy and Steve Martin on the freeway in Planes, Trains and Automobiles.
THE NUMBERS
These Oilers are lost in the supermarket, and I do have opinions on the situation. I’ve expressed them before, but believe it’s worth saying again. The coach has a suppression system that is working, but (as has been the case since Connor McDavid arrived on the scene) there’s a danger that system (or the coach) will be replaced. I think it would be a mistake.
Evan Bouchard did it again last night. He turned over the puck during the anthem (well, pretty close) and then was not mindful on the killer wraparound GA. He seems to be indifferent to the situation, in a fog and not at all in the moment. There are many who want to see him gone. I cannot agree, and would once again suggest he is the third most valuable player on the roster. Trading young players when they are struggling is the kind of thing losing organizations do in this situation.
Stuart Skinner owns a five-on-five save percentage of .916 since November 23. That ranks No. 16 among goalies who have played a significant amount this season. He did not react quickly on the shiv goal by Brandon Hagel last night, that’s a goal he needs to stop. It’s also worth noting he faced 10 high-danger chances (NST) last evening, that’s a high total and reflects the loose play by the skaters of late. I would not trade for a goalie at the deadline, and in fact would stay the course for next season. There’s no reason for these Oilers to change course, and acquiring an upgrade in goal requires guessing right, a significant cap increase at the position, or both. Ken Holland set the path forward in goal (inexpensive No. 1) and changing course would mean using the summer’s cap (and resources) instead of addressing the aging forwards and the three legged chair on defense.
Matthew Savoie is the only young player with the chance to play on the skill lines over the next five seasons. Getting an upgrade at the deadline may cost Edmonton’s best prospect. The youngest established NHL player on the Edmonton roster is 25. Trading Savoie is inadvisable. At some point, if the organization keeps going down this road, trading someone from the top end to add youth will be necessary. Welcome to the jungle, Stan!
The Lowdown hits at noon today, Sports 1440 radio. We’ll welcome Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal to the show, and ask him about Skinner, Bouchard and McDavid. We’ll also chat NBA, MLB and more. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
The Edmonton Oilers have a surprising problem that needs an immediate fix
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6158773/2025/02/26/edmonton-oilers-stats-mcdavid-draisaitl-fix/
This^. That’s the biggest need, more than goaltending or defense. Candidates? I think Donato checks a few boxes but is a “poor man’s” version of the ideal/perfect fit. Players like this can’t obtained cheaply, and it will be hard to find one without giving up a key future piece.
I wonder if a young, rebuilding team would accept a veteran with another year left on their deal (Arvidsson, Henrique) and a mid-round pick. Someone needs to be the Horcoff on a rebuilding team like the Blackhawks or Sharks…
You’re comfortable with 1. Skinner, 2. Pickard, 3. Rodrigue as Oiler goalie options going into the playoffs? Seems like a disaster waiting to happen, and I don’t mean that in a ‘Skinner sucks’ sort of way. When Vegas won the Cup, what goalie was Hill? Their 3rd or 4th iirc. I’m not as concerned about the #1 as many people are, but I am concerned about #3 and #2 if he’s called on to work more than spot duty like he has.
I had a dream last night that Coach Q taught me how to drive a tractor.
What does it mean?
It’s harvest time, get to work.
FarmersOnly is a free dating site with over 18 years of experience matching and connecting with like-minded singles near you.
I’m quite confident the scene is “You’re Going The Wrong Way”, but I do feel this one is a fair representation as well… Leon being the radio, and Playoffs being Thanksgiving.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5j5WqF6WdY
If it’s ok to be cynical this morning, I coined a new nickname for Arvidsson last night… “Humpty Dumpty”
I’m a huge Evan Bouchard fan. I love this type of defenceman and his ability to shoot the puck better than almost anyone.
I’d trade him if he’s not willing to take $8M/season in short order.
Great teams are cutthroat. This isn’t a friends club. It is an NHL franchise. One that should be hanging banners in the rafters.
What other skills does he possess that make him an $8 mil defender?
Tape to tape passing, solid stickwork. Routinely strips guys of pucks at the blueline.
His reads absolutely need work and he’s in a rough patch but nobody can hit 97 on the fly like him on this team from the back end or act as top point of the umbrella on a PP.
Bouch at his best is a game changer. See the playoff run last year and the historically lethal PP he was a big part of. He is not at his best right now. If they get bounced early this year, best you’re gonna get is 9M and thats appropriate imo.
Bouch is, technically, always a game changer.
That’s the problem.
53-97-18
Let’s see it for a full game. Can’t be any worse than the results during this 4 game skid.
KK has made some wise choices during his tenure, but I cannot fathom why Jeff Skinner, after finally settling in on a line with 29 and 92, has been moved back to 4L/pressbox duty.
He’s a skilled player who can score goals, but needs to have a running mate. Pairing him with Janmark and Kapanen is not going to get the most out of the current roster.
I understand wanting to give Savoie an audition with 29, but you have to find a way to put 53 in a position to succeed. He’s not going anywhere unless he wants to, and he clearly can have a positive impact on the game.
Play the man.
Bowman needs to give him one opportunity to stop using Janmark, Brown, Arvidsson and Podkolzin as his safety net by overplaying/elevating them.
If he won’t, trade them all away.
The coach has revealed his blind spot, doesn’t have an assistant who can cover it, and doesn’t seem to be evolving or building players up. This ends badly if it doesn’t stop right effing now.
After last night Kapanen should sit too. He needs to be held accountable.
Put Skinner w/97 or 29. Put Savoie on the line Skinner isn’t on.
Give yourself an opportunity to see guys in the best light possible and demand 2 way hockey.
I think the die is cast. I also doubt a coaching change, although there is one coach I would prefer, other than that Knoblauch until he clearly can’t do it well enough. Maybe some inexpensive tinkering, maybe Bowman gives a talk saying they believe in them and the team is good enough, no white knights, get back to playing like they can. Can’t fix yesterday so can it, make a difference today and tomorrow. Big boy pants time
I don’t want to see anything damaging to the future. It probably wouldn’t make the difference anyway. Next summer Stan can make some changes he thinks they need. Might have to talk to some guys with trade protection. They have to get younger, faster, bigger and more assertive. I’m not sure about Kane, it depends if he gets enough of his game back, I like having that kind of player around
I haven’t liked the roster mix in ages, but now isn’t the time for much, it’s too expensive unless you can move guys out, but some you can’t move without asking, and it would be more disruptive than that’s worth
At what point do we just have to go for it though. McDavid and Draisaitl are already in the second half of their careers and likely won’t get better from here. McDavid should bounce back a bit. The organization has already tanked the future to a great extent. Savoie is the only prospect who projects to help in a material way in the next 3 or 4 seasons. After that McDrai will likely be past their peak and in decline. So this makes the next few seasons the window imo. We have to go for it.
I don’t like how management has pissed away so many prospects that will shorten the contending window but we are here and there is no going back. We won’t have a better chance at the cup than in the next three years so make it happen
I believe in windows when your core is in prime and will be for a while. Even then, if teams are aggressive enough you can keep it going. As J Willis said a few years ago you can’t get a top RS C or D, but Vegas did
Connor and Leon have years left. Big splashes at the deadline don’t work more than they do. And there isn’t much to trade for prospects or off the team without really rocking the boat asking established players to waive clauses. Trading first round picks depleted the pool as it is
They are a good team if they can get it together. Good enough if healthy. Maybe add some depth at low cost, it is what it is. Make necessary changes past season
Bruce detailed most of these on the pod last night and I’m on NST to provide them:
Since Jan 1, Jeff Skinner:
5G and 3A (all primary) at 5 on 5 – 3rd on team and missed 6 games being scratched.
P/60 – 3.11, tops on team. Elite rate.
G/60 – 1.95, tops on team. Elite rate.
GF-GA, 9-4
He’s scored 5 goals himself and been on the ice for a total of 4 goals against.
Someone needs to ask Knob why he didn’t play last night.
Exactly. There has to be something else going on because performance says Skinner should still be on Draisaitl,s wing. Not the press box. Figure it out coach.
This era of Oilers always go through a “crisis” in season. Always.
We just thought this year’s one was the beginning of the season, but relative to previous years, that was kind of a mini crisis. Thus, this current mini crisis is happening to round out a combined full mid-season crisis.
No need to worry. The ship will be righted. All it takes with this team is one game where a couple goals go in, the mojo starts flowing, and they’ll be back in action.
Keep in mind, 4 games in a season is relative to 1 game in a NFL season. I know they weren’t great before the break, but this team did just have the best record from November to January. The whole roster didn’t suddenly just age out and forget how to play hockey.
Confidence. It’s a thing. And it’ll be back.
I mean really, think of last year’s verbal around this team when the Oilers were 5-12-1 after that loss to Carolina. Very similar to this year, right now, if not worse.
You think we’d be used to it by now.
The 4 to 1 ratio is very useful for contextualizing. I’m stealing it and thank you.
I think the game against the panthers is a perfect opp to get back on track. Go win where you lost the cup last year, go beat another good Carolina team and the pitchforks get put away.
It’s a lull, it’s a tough part of their schedule and they are getting rolled.
I do think the Oilers will trade for a goalie at the deadline though. I’d love to see Skinner lift a cup for this team, and he still can as a backup!
You’re probably right, and history says you are. This team just looks so damn bad when they are off their game. Like LT says the gap between the ceiling and the floor with these guys is as wide as the Grande Canyon
I think the issue is totally just footspeed. Wingers are not really winning any races. D either really.
Sounds about right.
For me, the overall issue is so many players under-performing expections (based on historical norms) and, really, only 1 player exceeding expectations (plus Perry, for the year, currently slumping). This goes for currently and overall on the season.
Underperforming: McDavid, Hyman, Nuge, Arvidsson, Henrique, Brown, Janmark, Bouchard, Ekholm, Klingberg, Stuart Skinner
Meeting Expectations: Jeff Skinner (although not allowed to play), Perry (on the season), Kapanen, Kulak, Emberson, Nurse
Exceeding Expectations: Drai
The other issue (which factors in to underperforming) is complete lack of structure and puck management. From Kap’s neutral zone turnover to Nuge not being strong on the back-track, etc., etc. Yes, Bouchard turns the puck over alot but that’s not structure, that’s just bad plays.
I’d say Perry and Nurse are having better years than anyone expected. Personally, I expected Klingberg to have some wobble/chaos and that he’s been as advertised so far (particularly given he hadn’t seen game action in 18 months).
Perry, I agree but I put him in the meeting expectations based on current mediocre levels of play (recency bias).
I expected Nurse to find his prior game so he is meeting my personal expectations.
The point is fair, underperformance has been hurting the team (although still a top team in the league, heavy is the crown). I’d argue you’re being a harsh critic on a couple guys but to each their own. imo:
Klingberg hasn’t played hockey in a year and has new hips so the fact he’s even here is a win.
Emberson wasn’t even a full time player when he joined us and has been solid on the 3rd pair. He’s still a young defender establishing himself but he is not the problem plaguing this team at the moment, or at all this season. Being an everyday player is exceeding. If he is being compared to who he replaced in Ceci, I can see that.
Kulak was killing it for a time with Nurse. I would say Nurse is absolutely exceeding expectations, although much of that is how low he set the bar by last EOY (injury?).
97, Hyms, Nuge. That’s the crux of the issue imo. Hyms I’ll give a pass cause that man is injured. 97 I really don’t get. I’m sure by playoffs it’ll be an afterthought or reframed as his ‘Yzerman moment’.
I’m Bouch’s biggest fan. He is the opposite of an Edmonton Oilers fan player and it’s a damn shame. Him and Petry should start a club.
Fair but, for me:
1) I expected wobble in Klingberg’s game but I also expected him to be more dynamic with the puck and in the offensive zone
on. Lets not forget, many had Emberson as the 2RD savior.
2) I expected solid 3RD from Emberson as the season went on. Lets not forget, many had Emberson as the 2RD savior.
3) Kulak was awesome early but he’s been awful late – boom middle.
4) I expected a bounce-back to prior levels for Nurse and he’s done that (with reduced responsibility from pre-Ekholm days)
Karlsson half retained for the 2nd pair. He looked revitalized at the 4 nations and if they’re gonna play fast and loose might as well get the fastest and loosest and outscore the mistakes. Could probably be had for cheap too, since we’re bargain bin shopping.
5M Karlsson for the Kane LTIR money is a wash. 2×5 with a rising cap is much more palatable than the 4×11.5 in a flat cap that made him so toxic with the Sharks.
Or we could be moar defence and get Brian Dumoulin. Yawn.
It would be a bold move for sure, but I think it’s high-risk given the age/term and I’d pass.
You’re spending a decent chunk of the next few summer’s cap dollars on a declining asset. If he was a pending UFA, maybe.
I disagree. 5M is Kane’s money you can move in the offseason, so unless you’re grabbing Rantanen in free agency there’s plenty of room.
2 more years is not ideal, that’s why i think he could be had for very cheap; a requirement given our asset pool. In 1 years time with the cap jumping another 10ish, 5M is nothing. That’s #5-6 money in tomorrow’s NHL.
Reasonable to think he’s declining, I think performance to cap dollar would be worth it, with potential for outperformance given the pedigree and (imo) spectacular performance at 4 nations. Take him off a bad team, squeeze out the remaining hockey he has left, let him ride off into the sunset, hopefully with some hardware.
Another day and another post no one is digesting LT. None of the rest of this matters (independently) except for Connor McDavid being 42% goal share.
They must figure out what is causing this and ignore anything that isn’t.
I agree, Stuart Skinner made some great saves on high danger chances last night. His problem is inconsistency and giving up bad goal at bad times. The Hagel goal should never go in on an NHL goalie regardless of Bouchard complete garbage effort on the play.
Goalies job is to make saves when the game is on the line. Making some great saves when your team is already down 2, 3, or 4 goal’s doesn’t matter. It’s too late.
I still wouldn’t trade Skinner, but I would definitely bring in a 1A that can jump in and win games when Stuart faulters, or take the net altogether if needed. I don’t know how the team can trust Skinner this year that is supposed to be a Stanley cup chance
His biggest issue is his side to side movement. He is very slow at that. Not sure that is something that can be remedied. . Noodles was commenting yesterday that Skinner does not do a full butterfly either as he just does more of a 3/4 one and leaves space between his legs.
I am not sure if he can get faster side to side, but that has been his biggest issue all his career since he has played. He has been a pro goalie for 6 ish years. You would think that is his #1 thing to work on . It is a big weakness in his game
What is going on with McDavid? I’ve watched almost every game he has played in the NHL and don’t recall a stretch where he was so ineffective for so many games. Injury? Or have we already watched peak McDavid?
There seems to be a “something we don’t know” going on.
LT’s written about this a ton at the athletic (and here). His numbers with Draisaitl are in line with prior seasons; away from Draisaitl his numbers with 93 and 18 are down, and 93 particularly is having trouble keeping up, getting to pucks, and cashing chances.
If you’re playing with ineffective linemates/linemates who can’t run with you, you will likely start trying to force plays and teams will start overloading coverages to take away your time and space. If McDavid has a LW who can keep up and cash chances, defenses won’t be able to overload coverages towards McDavid.
I know what the numbers say and agree to an extent. Hyman and RNH definitely aren’t helping at all. Something seems off with McDavid himself though. Hell, he has had some pretty bad wingers over the years. Yakupov, Lucic, Rattie, Puljujarvi, etc.
Yeah. I don’t think there is much of a solution waiting out there in the trade market. You might get one piece or maybe even two, but it seems like there are more than one or two problems. Stay. The. Course. And don’t pay too much for tinkering around the edges
This ^^^
Note to self: Life is good. Watch the games with my wife and cats. Enjoy the ride. It goes fast.
My wife left halfway through the second and the cat fell asleep. Why o why can’t I take these rose coloured glasses off.
The fire Dustin Schwartz part is something that should happen.
He’s been the goalie coach since 2014. He was hired by Eakins, then Eakins was fired not long after.
He was then there under:
Todd Nelson
Todd McLellan
Ken Hitchcock
Dave Tippett
Jay Woodcroft
Kris Knoblauch.
11 years and 7 head coaches with spotty goaltending the whole way through. Arguably the best guys he’s worked with are Talbot (fell apart after getting overused so he gets a pass here), Skinner (I still believe that Skinner can get there with some tweaks to his game), Mike Smith (had his own personal goalie coach).
If this was the NFL there’s absolutely no way some rando goalie coach gets kept on by each new guy. Granted, maybe Hitchcock keeps him as he only had 62 games as interim, but you’d think by the time they hit Tippett that maybe he would have been in favour of bringing in his own person.
If I’m remembering correctly Mike Smith changed to a different Goalie Coach during his tenure here. Why is discussing Dustin such a polarizing subject?
Don’t make me tap the sign again, Stan
They should be trading Arvidson as cash out
For what? Given how much he’s struggled I don’t think you’d get much value and any move would basically be a cap dump. I’m not opposed to trading him (or Henrique) if it’s part of a bigger move and you need to move $ out to make the math work, but I think both players value is pretty low and the return in any “hockey trade” won’t be worth it.
Unless it’s part of a bigger move, I’d keep both and hope they return to form.
Said it last night, but there are too many forwards that are compete non factors out there right now. Arvidsson, Hyman, Podkolzin, RNH, Janmark, Brown, Henrique, Kapanen, Perry. That’s three quarters of the group. Jeff Skinner goes from producing and finding chemistry with Draisaitl, to producing on the fourth line, to the press box. WTF?
Then there are the issues on defence and in goal. I don’t know how you fix all the issues in a trade deadline with very few trade assets and not much cap space. I think you have to hope the forwards figure it out and concentrate on improving the defence and in goal.
I forget who I saw online this morning who suggested putting the best 6 on the top 2 lines (I believe it was 93-97-18, Podz-29-22) and then the rest in the bottom 6.
I am personally of the opinion that Janmark should go down, and that Philp should come back up. I’d even bring in Hamblin to shake up the bottom 6. He can scoot and did well for them last year. Making sure the vets who aren’t getting it done get the message that they are expendable is pretty important. Plus, by taking a guy like Janmark away from the coach, it removes the temptation to put him back in again.
Yes Philip should be in for sure. On paper, the bottom six they ran last night should be able to excel against the other teams bottom lines. Many of these guys have performed well as top six forwards in the not so distant past. Now they can’t even get anything done against bottom competition. That turnover by Kapanen is inexcusable. I don’t disagree on Janmark, but there are many candidates to sit.
I would put Jeff Skinner and Philp into the lineup and take out Kapanen and Henrique for a few games
The biggest issue, I think, is the lack of performance/utility in the bottom six. You can survive carrying a Brown or a Janmark, but not both. While they both contribute to the PK, for example, that’s just not enough.
Simply put, too much of the Oilers lineup right now is crab forks and those little corn cob holders. They need more Swiss Army knives!!
Bouchard is in his 5th season these lapses should not be happening at this point.
Mistakes despite effort is one thing but to have your head in the clouds after this many games in the big league is baffling.
he is who he is at this point. What’s the mark for a defenceman? 200 games? He’s too soft and too aloof. He ain’t changing now no matter how much we want him to.
He is who he is. Nothing to be done. Nothing can be done. You either accept it, and build around it, or move on.
… “he’ll be who he was”…
I wouldn’t even say this Bouch is who he is.
I don’t know this Bouchard it’s so bad.
Prospectocracy!
For today’s festivities, you will be treated to a quartet of OHL’ers.
Day-man stopped 33 of 34 last time out, which brought his season GAA to exactly 3, good for 8th in the OHL. His SV% is 17th in the league at 89.4. He does lead the O in appearances (50) and minutes played (2862). He and Clattenburg and the Birds of Fire oppose a Guelph team that’s second last in the O.
The firm of Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law have not been adept at lamplighting. Wakely has gone 12 goalless–and lost his lead in team scoring along the way–while Akey hasn’t scored in 27 dating back to mid-November. They oppose a Sarnia team that’s allowed the 3rd most goals in the O.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 4:30 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Twin Butte time.
They may lose six in a row. However, there is always hope. In February, 1984 the Edmonton Oilers lost 5 in a row and lost that 5th game 11-0 vs the Hartford Whalers. They won the Stanley Cup later that spring…
Is that the team the NHL determined to be the best ever, for their centennial?
I like to remember that whenever the Oilers lose, they look terrible doing so. And this group has an established record of bouncing back and playing their best with their back on the wall.
From the lowest floor to the highest ceiling. A roller coaster ride, for sure.
I am, frankly, impressed by the calm on this blog this morning.
And thank you LT, for the AWB reference. When the funk lifts you up, instead of getting you down. How will these Oilers, this coach, play this funky music?
I remember listening to the game on the radio as back then I would say around 25-30 games were not broadcast so you had to go by Rod Phillips description which was fine by me because Rod could make a Jacques Lemaire trap game sound exciting. Anyhow sometimes you need to hit rock bottom in a slump. We had such a short offseason the team is playing uninspired hockey and it seems to be feeding off McDavid who despite having the beauty winning goal plus the other one in Montreal didn’t look right in the 4 Nations Cup. Something is up with McDavid either it’s physical or mental but his body language is the worst I’ve seen since the look on his face when the mighty Oilers drafted him.
I really don’t want to fire the coach or trade the goalie. I would prefer to add depth speed at the deadline and meanwhile everyone just play to their established abilities.
Maybe a game in FLA can exorcise some give-a-shit.
AWB. Pick up the pieces
Such a great song.
100%.
I’ve been waiting on a Hang Up Your Hang Ups post – the team needs to get in on that. Stop overthinking things dammit! (Although I’m in the midst of posting about my hangups with Schwartz).