Each spring, I think about 1990 and the run to Edmonton’s most unlikely Stanley Cup victory. I still hope to get one more because (selfishly) it would be glorious to watch this group win it all. What I want most is to see the fans who haven’t experienced one (or were too young to really take it all in) to drink it all in, to enjoy it thoroughly. I hope that day comes in my lifetime.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-3-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- February result: 2-5-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-20-4, 72 points in 58 games
February is a disaster but Gordon Lightfoot didn’t write about the ‘gales of February’ and Lou Reed’s “Christmas in February” is just too damn much for the scenario currently being experienced by the Oilers. It’s bad, but not that bad. Let’s agree that “February Stars” is a fit, and use the line ‘February stars, floating in the dark’ until further notice.
SUBMIT YOUR TRADE PROPOSALS
DNB and I do this every trade deadline, and this one should be a blast. If you have a trade proposal, please drop it off here and we’ll have a lash at your idea.
EVANDER KANE
Stan Bowman wants to know Evander Kane’s status, and should get some idea by the deadline. My suspicion is the big winger gets traded, but a healthy Kane would be a strong addition to this lineup. One of the things Edmonton general managers have taught the fan base (without ever figuring it out for themselves) is that acquiring late 20’s power forwards and intimidating wingers means a very short period of success (although Milan Lucic didn’t really do that, even) followed by years of frustration. Evander Kane was money when he got here, not so much lately.
SLUMP BUSTER
Former Chicago Cubs first baseman Mark Grace once told Jim Rome how he got out of a slump. It was fairly ribald, or completely offensive depending upon your point of view. I don’t know how these Oilers will break out of a slump, but I always hope for a well played game with strong decisions and good coverage.
These Oilers have a pile of players who can’t put the puck in the ocean of late, but you can forecheck and back check and make smart passes. The comments section here, X commentary and verbal in other spots includes a lot of finger pointing at specific players and of course the need for an immediate and franchise altering trade.
I think an observer can see when a team or player is about to bust out of a slump. It comes from several shifts in a row where good play and structure are evident, and successful periods of play. I haven’t seen that yet from this team. Perhaps tonight.
It’s the Thursday Lowdown and that means Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation is our feature guest. We’ll hammer the Blue Jays senseless for sins real and imagined, although there have been so many I don’t know if we’ll have time to get to the imagined ones. We’ll also go Heavy Early on the trade deadline. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
The Globe & Mail has a piece up today about the ongoing fallout from Gretzky’s participation in the 4 Nations. It made me think of another way the NHL could have handled this. Forgiveness is something that’s in short supply in the culture so my suggestion is likely to find more critics than supporters but I thought it was a nice idea worth sharing nonetheless.
Remember when the Olympics in Atlanta surprised everyone by bringing out Ali to light the torch? The NHL could have done something similar and brought out Don Cherry as honorary captain. Given his stance on the war in Vietnam, Ali was every bit the polarizing figure in his country that Cherry is now but they still gave Ali that moment to demonstrate his patriotism.
Unlike Ali, Cherry’s patriotism has never been in question. Giving Cherry that symbolic return to the public eye by demonstrating his love for Canada would have been a nice way for the NHL to recognize their long history with Cherry while simultaneously helping to rebuild a relationship ended abruptly by cancel culture. In the end, it wouldn’t have given Cherry any platform of lasting substance but it would have been a nice moment of grace and forgiveness for many Canadians. An opportunity missed imo, especially with the game played in Boston where Cherry was a beloved coach.
Yikes, that would have been awful.
The NHL is not trying to grow the sport in Canada and no one outside Canada cares about Don Cherry.
Don Cherry was fired because he was too expensive masqueraded by cancelling. They waited for him to inevitably slip and canned him.
Bell torched tonnes of people that year because the NHL deal was a massive flop for them. Sportsnet’s CEO and everyone involved in that deal is gone. It was the money at the heart of it, not the action (which was in poor taste).
Getting fired by your boss for making comments he does not like because he thinks it makes the company look bad is cancel culture now?
It’s wild to me that my parents’ generation experienced 5 cups in 7 years, and my generation has seen two different teams lose G7 of the SCF. The Oilers won Stanley more often in the 1980s then they’ve gotten out of the second round in my lifetime. Crazy.
Prospecturity!
A trio of NAmateurs on tap, though only two for somewhat certain with Wakely suspended indefinitely pending review of his boarding major from the weekend.
Otherwise it’s Akey and the House of Stone who shall be hockeying at 5 p.m. High Level time.
I really don’t like how often Kapanen is playing. While he adds a dimension of speed, the details of his game are far from good enough to be anything more than depth on the fringes of the roster. He’s getting outscored at all levels of competition and with all Cs excl. Philp (2-2).
Perhaps I’m focusing too much on a minor detail, but details matter and this isn’t an NHL player anymore.
two things…do you think Savoie is out to stave off injury (trade) ?…also, this bunch of crazy guys likes to put themselves up against it before they wake up ( starts last two years ) etc…
He played good in both games. I think the kid just knows where to go. I can’t believe they are not sitting out Arvidson to be honest. He is terrible
In order of deadline preference, on a pure talent and age basis addition:
Byram
Jones
Karlsson
Murphy
Retention would be key on Jones + Karlsson but asset cost would likely be less.
I’ve always loved Byram’s game and believe Colorado took away their biggest differentiator from their cup run (The fastest puck moving defence core in the world) to fill a hole left by Kadri. Mittlestadt is the polar opposite of him tho so odd choice and it hasn’t worked.
I imagine the cost would be prohibitive but he’s an excellent young dman (still only 23) and could help with succession planning Ekholm that was lost with Broberg.
Murphy gives Mccabe vibes which could help the ‘play defence’ part of the team.
Byram would be such a great get. But $$$$$$$
Trade Savoie back lol.
Maybe Murphy.
Will we have LTIR big-bucks??? We await the hammer to fall.
Nurse is out tonight – he’s “day to day” (so was Arvy a while back….).
I presume this is from that nasty missed hit in to the boards last game, shoulder maybe?
Bummer. I just picked him to score in my Tims app
Ekholm and Bouchard for 30 minutes. Should be interesting.
If Nurse is out, Bowman might want to get that depth LHD sooner, rather than than later at the TDL.
That must be why they picked up Dermott off waivers. He certainly is no solution though.
I believe they picked up Dermott given Cam Dineen is the only left shot D man in Bako and they need him.
I would presume that the thought on a vet depth LD hasn’t changed due to Dermott.
I presume no other team put in an offer to pick him up so they can send him to Bako ASAP.
There are plenty of players that could be moved off this squad. If I’m Bowman, I’m looking at the Utah Hockey club, they have three players I would be very interested in, Ollie Maatta, Kevin Stenlund and of course Karel Vejmelka. But then Bowman apparently isn’t looking to upgrade the goaltending. However, I’d be very happy with Maatta & Stenlund.
Maatta is a defensive defenseman who does solid work on the PK and has Stanley cup experience.
Stenlund is a big fourth line RHC that wins 58% of his draws, kills penalties and also was a Stanley cup winner in Florida last season.
These two players are meat & potato types that Edmonton could use on their current roster going into the playoffs that might even be in tune to helping out their goaltenders.
That would be a good place to start, there’s still more work to be done IMO.
Oiler are in a slump right now, no doubt.
The Oilers had the 4th best record in the NHL in November.
The Oilers had the 4th best record in the NHL in December.
The Oilers had the 2nd best record in the NHL in January.
For three months, from Nov 1 through Jan 30, the Oilers had the 2nd best record in the NHL, .01% points behind Carolina.
Recent play is not indicative of team ability.
February can be a cruel month.
Thanks for the perspective.
Luckily, it’s also the shortest month.
I’ve been tracking my own stats as you might know, and they are saying this team isn’t as strong as last season’s. The 13 teams I track are the 13 best in their conferences, so I picked them correctly. Didn’t bother with the Bruins or Canucks and Flames as they aren’t realistic contenders to me
The main stat pointing to the struggles we see (I don’t have time to get all the NST stats for goalies) is Win% in regulation. The Oilers are 12th out of the 13 at .468. Not being able to win in reg at the same rate as the other best teams (the Wild are 13th and clearly the weakest of the group in most of my stats) shows team weakness. Connor and Leon are the difference makers from being worse, the Oilers have quite a few more OT wins than group average
This doesn’t mean they can’t go deep, just that there are clear problems and that makes success less likely against the best. Maybe the underperforming players regress, the team will play better for sure, maybe Bowman can improve roster balance and things lacking, we’ll know soon
But it has to be a lot better than a lot of this season if we’re realistic about their chances as it stands. This is more like the seasons they got bounced by the Avs and Knights than last
They have a pretty old team. Maybe some of these guys have aged lol. Brown hasn’t been the Brown in the playoffs except for like a 5-10 game stretch, Janmark has been terrible for a month, Henrique is nowhere near the guy he was in the playoffs. Arvidson just stinks, . Guess they made a few bad decisions this year.
Or they’re saving it for the playoffs.
Well they’re not saving it for marriage. Holland did not believe in building through the draft past round one. We have no one in our system Holland gutted it. Why draft a Clattenburg or a Nicholl every year when you can pick up a veteran journeyman that is what he is for those picks. You may get immediate results but the downside is you have no system where you could pop on a 2-3rd rounder instead of getting 20 games for a Bumstead&Erne
Maybe you should explain to me what it is you’re trying to say?
Every season they went into the playoffs sloppy the furthest they got was 2nd round. You can’t just flip a switch as a team. Players can do it, but players don’t win Cups, teams do
I can’t imagine a trade prior to March 7. It would cost real assets in order to move that contract with one more year of term on it. Its a 33 (I think) year old power forward, coming of a “meh” season, multiple surgeries that hasn’t played in a year.
I think he could provide $5MM of value next season but that’s no lock.
It would cost assets to move the contract and it would cost more assets to use the cap space.
I think what is more likely is that the player (and his agency and doctors) and the org are in communication and know very well the plan is activation after the regular season.
What is the beneift to Kane to demand activation to get in 2, 3 or 4 games? Kane may be selfish, sure, but he also wants to win and he’s not stupid, he knows making such demands (if he does have a doctor clear him to play) hurts his team and his chances to win.
Of course – but they have to go through the motions and make sure everything is on the up and up, otherwise Bettman will award a 3rd round pick to the Falmes.
Imo Stan just wants to know if he has the cap space or not, he’ll trade Kane in the summer if it comes to that.
This is another one of my hot takes but apparently Kane’s team and Bowman’s team did a Pinky Swear not to leak any information early.
Ya that is when I think they would move him if they do
I don’t think it will cost assets at all if they move Kane. As long as he gets a 100% clean bill from the medical. Teams ( Just like us) need a guy Just like that in the playoffs.
In all honesty. The Oilers don’t get by Vancouver if he wasn’t playing , even at 60-70%.
He completely made Hughes irrelevant in the last 4 games by hitting him hard every chance he got ( which were many)
Oilers need Kane in the playoffs and 1 more similar on that 3rd line. We have no forwards like that at all. Podz a bit and Perry a bit,
I think it would definitely cost assets – he’s got another year left – there is big time risk taking on that contract.
While there is obviously injury risk with Kane, 1 more year doesn’t seem to = big time risk to me. When healthy he’s a unicorn and can be a difference maker, 1 year left vs. multi years I’d argue is a benefit. I would think he’d be attractive to a bubble team like Utah who could take him on and flip him to a playoff contender at the deadline if things don’t work out.
For me something doesn’t add up with this Kane situation. For the Oilers to not be sure about his return yet seems highly unlikely. I think the plan was always for him to come back for the playoffs and they will be able to use the cap space at the deadline. Players returning for game 1 of the playoffs has always been a hot topic and maybe this is just the Oilers and Kane playing the game to avoid any questions and further investigations.
I read through a bit of this having the pre-gym coffee this morning and its a wild wild ride.
It is every year, but especially this one.
As much as actual GM’s sometimes frustrate me, I thank the heavens that the average layperson is nowhere near the reins based on what I read in these proposals.
Arvy over Savoie for 2RW is a choice and Kap in over Savoie is another (along with each of Henrique, Brown, Janmark,. etc.).
Per Stauff:
Nuge/McDavid/Hyman
Skinner/Drai/Arvidsson
Janmark/Henrique/Brown
Podz/Kapanen/Perry
Ek/Bouch
Kulak/Klingberg
Stecher Emberson
Skinner
Nurse not on ice.
Kapanene is not a center, neither is Janmark.
I am fine with getting Nuge back on the wing – we KNOW the Nuge/McDavid/Hyman line can be a top line in the league, we’ve seen it.
At this point, right now, they are in LTIR with tons of room so just add Philp to the roster and play him at 4C – there is zero negative cap implications – they can just re-assign when they need the space.
Bowman needs to demote Janmark, just to make sure that KK can’t play him. No Savoie is loser thinking.
Maybe they go 11 & 7, with Dermott as the seventh D.
Dermott has been assigned to the Bakersfield Condors.
OMG they only have six D. LOL.
This is pretty much exactly how I would line up the forwards at this point. I’d say that top 9 was the plan heading to camp in August. As a wise man here often says:
“Start as you plan to go.”
I’d prefer to have a decent 4C and move Kapanen to Perry’s spot, but here we are.
For me it would make sense if Janmark played 4c, Arvidsson played with Henrique & Brown and Podz played with Skinner & Leon.
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Leon-Podz
Arvidsson-Henrique-Brown
Kapanen-Janmark-Perry
The defense without Nurse is in complete disarray. Send a 3rd rounder to Utah for Ollie Maatta today.
Its bad but not that bad is my take too.
This is the first time KK has ever lost 4 in a row in the NHL, ever.
This is a slump. No more, no less.
I’m not saying there isn’t more going on here that needs addressing, but I am willing to give this group some credit. They know themselves. Tonight will be an emotional game regardless, and its probably just what they need.
Oilers 4-2.
Hopefully we’re getting a “My Hero” post tomorrow to follow up from “February Stars” today.
Colour and the Shape is a fantastic album. Hey, Johnny Park! is an absolute standout for me.
“There goes my Hero” I say as I watch Connor McDavid transform from an exciting 140 point player to whatever this year’s version is…
I thought Connor looked fine playing in the 4 Nations. He might not be getting the same support from his teammates in Edmonton. There’s Leon but that’s about it.
My Hero is about the every day common person as a hero. That’s likely going to be more about a lower end of the roster player. Janmark/Stetcher/Kulak/Kapanen – one of those folks to spark the win tonight.
Connor will be fine.
Little Bill Daggett (Gene Hackman): Look son, being a good shot, being quick with a pistol, that don’t do no harm, but it don’t mean much next to being cool-headed. A man who will keep his head and not get rattled under fire, like as not, he’ll kill ya.
~ Unforgiven 1992
Who was responsible for offering 21 point Jeff Skinner a NM contract??
“Jeff, you are one of the most overrated NHLers in history. All you have done is play for horrible teams so hey! Let’s offer you a contract that will cripple the team”
It’s 3M that’s not crippling. He was also offered more money from other teams so they were surprised they got him. Even more bizarre if you think about it.
It’s also only for this season. This is as far from crippling as you can get, do we not remember the Lucic contract? THAT was crippling. Heck, we still have $1.9 mill of James Neal against the cap this year.
It was crippling because it cost them Holloway and Broberg. Ridiculously misplaced priorities.
Arvidsson? There’s your money for Holloway. That’s the bigger failure than Skinner – again I don’t think Jeff is a crippling contract. He can be walked this summer.
Arvi (proven playoff performer) was brought in to replace Foegele and his playoff no-show.
Skinner was the wing replacement for Dyl, Emberson for Ceci, Henrique for McLeod.
Have to be careful cause once you go down the rabbit hole of deals it all inevitably ends up at Nurse anyway (or Lucic and Russell).
What this team needs is an injection of perspective, like they got with Ben Stelter. They, starting with the captain, have completely forgotten that they play a game for a living, and instead of joy and gratitude for each moment, they have so much riding on every loss.
Connor seems broken this year- I don’t think it’s illness or a physical problem. I think it’s the kind of pressure he is putting on himself, and that also carries over to the team. Some people thrive on pressure (Binnington) and many others crumble under the weight of it. Sometimes they barely celebrate a huge victory- case in point Connor not allowing himself to lift the 4Nations trophy for more than a millisecond. It’s like he feels he doesn’t deserve it so he can’t allow himself to experience any joy.
They need someone like Kane who seems to have come out the other side of his share of struggles and is enjoying his life. Kostin was this kind of guy as well. They have too many intense players and not too many players with both a strong presence and who are a bit silly and playful.
They need to have their coach choose a set of lines and have the boys go play a game of paintball (or something similar) in their lines, and remember the joy of playing again. Then take that same joy to the rink everyday.
Respectfully, please stop with the 4 Nations trophy lifting thing. It was a fun week tournament meant as a substitute for the All-Star break, and it’s been over for a week. It’s not the Olympics or the Stanley Cup. ~ Sent with cartwheels…
No offense, but was your comment sent with respectful intent?
I believe it was only the Stanley cup winners that lifted the cup over their heads. It may have been something the players on the team had agreed on.
Connor was not the only Canadian who only lifted that trophy for a millisecond. It is not the trophy/medal they want. One doesn’t over-celebrate an interim milestone.
I like the “joy” thing. This is, after all, just a game, played by young men with too much money and too many hopes to carry.
Isn’t there a big pond hockey thing in your town? Shake off the seriousness with some fresh air foolishness.
I’m crossing all 7 of my fingers that Bennett and Connor had lots of time to chat…… Of course that’s a summer thing
You only have seven fingers?
Heh heh
We don’t even know what Kane is anymore. Trading him is my 3rd least favourable outcome.
1. He gets in the line up, and adds a nasty edge, while scoring a few goals.
2. He gets put onto LTIR, returns in the playoffs, adds a nasty edge and scores a few.
3. He gets traded for someone who can add a nasty edge, and scores a few
4. He comes back before the deadline, taking way his LTIR money, doesn’t add an edge. And only scores a couple.
Mark Stone had back surgery and came back and was decent for that session of Vegas does LTIR
I think it comes down to what they expect and who do they have as a C for him. Henri is slower, I think that would be bad for Kane, they wouldn’t get up the ice in the playoffs. I wasn’t a McLeod fan because of his style, but they sure miss those wheels
Kane had started to slump in the months following his signing. Trading him now means we aren’t stuck with an albatross contract next season. We can hope that he recovers enough to contribute to the team in the playoffs, but the aging curve suggest otherwise, and hope is not a plan.
Absolute and complete total Albatross contract = Jeff Skinner.
Which ends this year. And considering his play of late, he is at least contributing on the score sheet. He’s about 5th on my list of issues with the team, though I do get why people are unhappy with him.
You mean the contract that ends in four months? You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means
Kane was slumping some, but it could have him playing through nagging injuries. Now with all those surgeries nobody knows how he will respond. IMO it would be wise to see what he’s got before moving him. He shouldn’t play during the regular season for obvious reasons. It’s a bit of a gamble for another team to acquire him via trade, just as it’s a bit of a gamble for the Oilers to thrust him into playoff action. If he does well maybe he could be moved in the summer if they’re so inclined. But he’ll be playing for a new contract next season. Who knows?
Yes, I agree. Too many unanswered questions, and frankly the Oilers will be better off with whatever cap space they can acquire for him. If he continues to say he will play before the season is done, then they are hooped for making any changes. While he could help the team, the uncertainty is a bigger factor imo.
I don’t know that he’s actually said he wants to play before the season is done. He’s smarter than that. Isn’t he?
I would hope so, but I have seen him say in the last couple of weeks he thinks he would be back in March.
Would or could? I don’t think he knows for sure. He has also said he has a date in mind that he wasn’t going to share.
Yeah, its that uncertainty that is hampering the Oilers for sure. Making a decision by tomorrow and having clarity on next steps makes their TDL options much more clear.