One of my favourite experiences in the last 12 months came in late fall. I got to see Spoons at the River Cree. I’ve loved since I heard them. The band’s best song is “Old Emotions” and they were playing it as I entered the concert.
That song should have been an international hit (produced by Nile Rodgers of Chic) and it did well in Canada, but the band did not enjoy the success I thought warranted. Sometimes in life, things don’t rhyme when they should. This is the Edmonton Oilers at this time.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 0-0-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-21-4, 72 points in 59 games
If the Oilers run at 7-5-2 in March, the club will not get to 100 points. A playoff spot wouldn’t be in doubt, but the first series would be against Vegas Golden Knights and that’s a tough opener for both teams. I can’t give this team the kind of March the talent on the roster merits, because the McDavid five-on-five minutes hang heavy in the air. I don’t know why this isn’t a big issue everywhere, but it sure as hell is a big one here.
MCDAVID FIVE-ON-FIVE GOAL SHARE BY MONTH
Away from Leon Draisaitl, it’s been a trip for Connor McDavid at five-on-five this season. In October, he went 4-4 (50 percent) and followed it up with his first outlier month. In November, away from 29, McDavid’s line scored 7-12 goals (37 percent) and raised a few eyebrows. I mentioned at the time that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins seemed off, not getting to plays. Zach Hyman wasn’t scoring like he did last season, but regression was expected.
December brought the real McDavid, 9-5 goals (64 percent) and the first month of the season where actual goals outpaced his expected goal share. Music!
January was so curious it’s baffling. McDavid’s line went 3-5 (38 percent) with a 64 percent expected goal share. Regression should occur, but regression and German trains have very different opinions on arrival times. Ironically, German trains ran on time at a 64 percent rate in the last year.
February is the month the artifice of McDavid five-on-five crash landed in a field just outside Sangudo. McDavid without Draisaitl went 0-8 goals at five-on-five, and McDavid with Draisaitl went 2-5 goals.
To which I say what fresh hell is this? Fans want Evan Bouchard and Stuart Skinner placed on a garbage barge at the Port of Vancouver, then released to the ocean forevermore.
Me? I’d like to examine what math has cooked since January 1. When Connor McDavid is on the ice (with and without Draisaitl), Edmonton owns a 37 percent goal share and a .854 save percentage. When the captain is off the ice? The save percentage was .922 and the goal share 57 percent.
This isn’t ‘Keith Richards on lead vocals’ weird, it’s ‘Bill Wyman has a new solo album’ weird.
Seriously. What the hell?
re: Connor McDavud, one doesn’t need to split his time with or without Draisaitl or Bouchard to discover the depths of the pit he has fallen in since his suspension. Especially at 5v5.
in February he was 3rd among NHL forwards in 5v5 minutes, yet finished in a 100-way tie for 358th with 0 — count ‘em! zero — points.
11.9 forwards per team scored a 5v5 point in Feb. A dozen Oilers did so including the other 11 regulars plus Matt Savoie. But Connor F. McDavid could not piss a single drop in the game state all month.
thankfully just half a (short) month but still 8 games. Also thankfully, I would trade all zero of those 5v5 points 🤓 for that one OT snipe that decided 4 Nations. But still, it is deepl concerning.
Problems not just at the offensive end either.
McDavid also had the worst raw GA of those 457 forwards with 13 5v5 GA. Only d-man Seth Jones had more (14).
His traditional plus/minus of dash-11 was 695th & dead last among all NHL skaters, & can be fully accounted for by his 5v5 results of +2/-13.
it’s been beyond shocking, & can’t fully be explained by flukes of distribution or bad puck luck. It frankly leaves me concerned about what might be the underlying cause/s, because things clearly are not right.
It’s really hard to see the current best possible Oilers line up not including Matt Savoie. And when you’ve lost 5 games in a row, you should absolutely be icing the best lineup available to you.
I also really believe KK needs to stop with the line blending. When you’re on a losing streak, pick a lineup and stick with it for awhile. Not just game to game, but in game as well. I understand giving McDavid and Draisaitl extra shifts down the middle with the bottom six wingers, that’s not really what I’m talking about. I mean pick your wingers for each line, and leave them alone for a bit. Focus on coaching the team, not coaching the lines.
A lot of people wondering why Savoie is sitting. Isn’t possible he is a potential trade chip and they don’t want to risk injury?
Quite possible. Some of us are worried this is the case.
If they trade that kid, they better be getting someone really good with term. But yes that is worrisome
Things this team needs:
Starting Goalie
Top 6 F with plus shot
Top 4 D
3rd line F with size and speed
Lots of holes to fill this year
Ignoring the odd TSN headline…
Rangers acquiring Parssinen, de Haan from Rangers for Lindgren, Vesey
The Colorado Avalanche have acquired Ryan Lindgren, Jimmy Vesey, and a prospect from the New York Rangers in exchange for Juuso Parssinen, Calvin de Haan, a second-round pick, and a fourth-round selection, according to TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun.
@frank_seravalli
The 2nd Round Pick NYR are receiving in Ryan Lindgren deal with COL is better of Carolina’s or Rangers’ own pick back.
Ultimately, Rangers felt they couldn’t let their own UFAs walk for nothing the way this season has gone.
The Rangers retained $2.25 million on Lindgren so Colorado is only paying $2.25 million.
Vesey is league minimum offset by Parsinen while DeHaan out means Colorado is effectively paying Lindgren $1.45 million for the rest of the season.
sure like to see us do a move like this. Say to grab Evan’s/Armia (who are supposedly a package deal)
Those two would be a nice boost, wonder what the asking price is?
You guys seeing the trend with KK and his predecessors before the eventual coaching change? Questionable line arrangement, awarding veterans when they shouldn’t be, not giving younger players more ice time when it’s warranted, falling back in putting Leon and Connor on the same line, being stubborn etc….
I do, but they better get on it if they are wondering. Woody came in Feb 10
Check the save percentage when they get fired. There’s your real answer.
I’ve been banging your drum Knoblauch! And I’m repaid by watching you not only not pair Savoie with McDavid but you keep sitting him WHILE Connor babyshit Brown is still taking regular shifts.
Leon beats up 3 teammates, Hall scores twice, Carolina 6-2.
The biggest mistake Stan could make is going all in this year.
The Oilers do not have to win this year. It’s the GMs job to extend the window. Give the team as many chances as possible.
Especially if McD is dealing with some sort of chronic injury this year.
Stan seems pretty measured. I think if a great deal comes up he’d do it, and they need that. I think if it’s too expensive being a seller’s market this season he won’t spend big. From what he’s said he knows he needs inexpensive good players coming in, can’t deplete too far. Also if you’re going to spend on Connor you want years of ‘window’
“The Oilers do not have to win this year”
This is not winner thinking. I get the point, but why after a 5 game streak (4+ break) are we punting the season.
They absolutely can win.
I didn’t say they should punt. They should try to win. But going all-in does not work. The best chance to win a cup is to be competitive year over year.
How is the coach still dressing Kapanen?
Brown, Kapanen and Janmark have been brutal for weeks.
But Savoie is sitting?
Good lord.
I don’t get Kap either. No way Philp would be worse and is actually a C which they lack. Kap – big fast good shot little hockey sense, doesn’t work in playoffs either. It’s why Foegele is gone, and at least he had good regular seasons
Something is clearly not right with Mcdavid. So many sorties end with the puck getting knocked off his stick. He chases the puck digs it out of the corner and then very low yield pass. Rinse and repeat. He needs to start playing like the best player in the world, or at least a top 5 player in the world which so far this season he has not
I find the puck support is really lacking this season. Connor has no good plays to make a lot of the time so he forces it, that’s him. Leon as well. The other players are often behind the coverage so there is no clear passing lane
It’s the reason Perry is scoring – he knows how to be in the right spots at the right time, timing being the hardest and most important part. Read off the play and get open at the right time, or in front in the right place at the right time. He also knows what to do when and can finish. They should all watch Pavelski tape, where he went in front. He went above the D so they couldn’t get to him but behind the wingers, where open ice usually is. This is a vet group, you’d think they’d be better at it
NHL teams get the book fast on all key players. They take away what have been Connor’s go to’s, but there hasn’t been an adaption. I think that is largely on the coaches. Most players need direction and a plan that will work to execute to be at their best. It seems Connor might right now
This is a part of why I am losing faith in KK. Something has to give, and soon. Only three WC teams have worst last 10 game records, only two with less wins
Up to the suspension McDavid was tied for the lead league in points per game. I guess any regular forward can do that. Janmark heater incoming.
He’s 20 points better than any other forward in the league over a season if he’s playing near his game. Especially in a big Leon where it’s likely more like 35.
He is so far off that it isn’t even funny.
Coach talking about the current third line being a shot down line they can play again opposition’s elite is frustrating. They are not that and they weren’t that in the playoff. They were 2-1 goals in the playoffs but below 40% in all metrics – getting caved but lucky.
The Oilers seem in a similar spot to the Avs in 2022. In the Avs Cup year 2022, in the summer they acquired Kuemper (that’s different bcs summer), at the deadline they got Manson, Sturm, Lehkonen and Cogliano
They gave up
For Manson – Helleson a RS D their 2nd round pick, and a 2nd
For Sturm – Jost a C
For Lehkonen – Barron a RS D their 1st round pick, and a 2nd
For Cogliano – a 5th
In Manson they got bigger and tougher at D, in Sturm bigger at C, Lehkonen more speed at wing, Cogliano more speed at C and strong defensive play. Playoffs Lehkonen scored 8 goals 5 at 5v5 fourth on the team, Cogliano 3, 2 at 5v5, according to Tarkus Sturm was denied soup. Pretty good help
That seems a lot like what the Oilers need to do. It cost them though, 2 high draft RS D prospects, a roster player they drafted 10th overall, a 1st, two 2nds and a 5th
They have been depleted since, thinner again losing Kuemper to free agency and trading two 3rds and a 5th for Georgiev, and then another 2nd and 500K retained salary to get rid of him. They’ve done a lot of dealing and have 1 of the next 3 first rounders left, two 2nds and no thirds, not awful but not great
They also did a deal at the draft for picks, one that is often thought of as good, but I see as a mistake. Puckpedia has a ‘pick value’ for draft picks developed by a fella which some teams use or something like it, to help make trades
They traded a 1st for two 2nds and a third. The Puckpedia metric sees that as a slight gain in ‘pick value’, but to me because the odds of finding good contributors in the draft drop off so much after the 1st round, even though you pick more your still worse off in terms of the odds of getting a good NHL player. Not good NHL players are free every summer and cheap
Some teams don’t trade 1st round picks for deadline help, and I agree with that unless it is very significant to the team moving forward, like Ekholm. Even if you trade a lot of lower picks, you can still keep stocking the system with more chance of getting good NHL players that do something with 1sts, if you don’t trade those prospects away
It’s possible to keep the system healthy and make the deals you think you need, but not easy. Bowman seems better at negotiating deals to me based on what he has done with the Oilers, than what we have seen in the past which was pay heavy almost every time. You run out of cash if you never find value while shopping with a limited bank account
It will be a very interesting week, in the standings and with the deadline
Colorado also has a well deserved reputation for finding impact players for peanuts.
Devon Toews – 2 seconds
Arturi Lehkonen – Justin Barron and a second
Val Nichushkin – free agent signing at league minimum
Jonathan Drouin – free agent signing at league minimum
That’s a top pairing D and THREE top 6 forwards for 3 second round picks and a failed late first round pick.
In addition, Sam Girard was acquired for almost nothing, Oliver Kylington was a free agent signing and Sam Malinski was a NCAA free agent signing.
And of course they acquired Martin Necas, Jack Drury and two second round picks in the Rantanen trade.
Necas is playing on the top line while Drury has already settled in at 3C.
Like Tampa, Florida and Vegas, they don’t fall in love with draft picks or prospects.
Which is good, but you actually have to have some high draft picks and prospects. Do it poorly like Holland and you end up with one legit near ready prospect, and made a hole at C to get him. At least they currently have picks
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Hearing Gustav Nyquist will not play this afternoon for Nashville on Long Island.
Health protection for trade.
@FriedgeHNIC
Minnesota is one of the most aggressive pursuers, but there were others competing. We will see how things unfold
That’s why Nurse isn’t playing!
You heard it here first. Nurse is on the trade block.
Heh heh
Per Tony B:
Savoie sitting is egregious on a few levels. Development as well as merit based as well as finding out what you have before the deadline based.
What the hell?
They must be trying to showcase Jeff Skinner before the TDL.
Probably a good idea to showcase Viktor Arvidsson too.
Jeff Skinner was scratched a few games ago (after play well) – I dont think that’s it.
Even, if that was it, there are plenty of forwards playing worse 2-way hockey and putting in less effort (seemingly) than Savoie.
I’m going to say it doesn’t look good for Edmonton tonight.
Send him down and bring up Philp if you won’t play him. Although I think at times when they bring up guys and sit them they are giving them money and exposure to the NHL way. Savoie makes something like 9800 per game when up, 1000 when down
I don’t think that’s accurate.
NHL Daily Cap Hit:
$4,618 USD
Same source lists his total salary in the minors at $82,500.
The 2024-25 AHL season started on October 11, 2024, and will conclude on April 20, 2025, so some quick math puts that at 192 days.
$82,500/192 days = $429.69 USD
Still good coin, but he’s not making a grand a day in the AHL.
Sitting for one game was “fine” even if it made more sense given levels of play but this is egregious – unless he’s hurt and they aren’t telling us.
Lets also not forget, they have a career long winger in Kapanen playing center – Matt Savoie, while being developed as a winger by the Oilers (did play 3-4 games at center in Bako) has grown up as a center.
It’s a head scratcher having Kapanen playing 4c, but I’d scratch even harder if Savoie was used at 4c.
I wouldn’t.
As I said yesterday, it would suck to have him play on the 4th line but its better than not playing and it makes more sense than playing a career winger, who is poor defensively, there.
There are worst spots for a developing scoring player than minutes with Corey Perry…..
Kapanen at C was either hilarious or tragic to watch, depending on mindset.
He took 4 faceoffs in the game, doubling his season total (45 GP with STL & EDM).
He won 1 faceoff in the game, infinity’ing his season total, now 1/8=13%. They needed to use Draisaitl as a FOGO at times.
When the play was underway his line with Podkolzin & Perry struggled mightily to break the puck out of their own zone. There was one sequence in the first period when nothing defencemen & all 3 wingers 🤓 tried & failed to ckearvthe zone before Podz finally bulled it over yhe blue line by brute force.
For the season, McDavid is getting killed goal share wise without Bouchard and killing it with Bouchard. Haven’t looked in a few days but like 40% vs 60% range.
Kind of a must win to start the turnaround tonight? God I hope so.
I sure hope we see Young Savoie back in tonight. If Lines stay the same as practise yesterday , Knoblauch was running the same as Thur. Arvidson was terrible as was that 3rd line where they should put him.
Some articles out about trading Kane today. My god this team is so soft right now, he is the exact guy we need if he can come back at 100%. The guy was just 60-70% last year against Cavan and was one of the reasons we won as he beat down on young Hughes every chance he got and in those last few games, It caught up with Hughes and he was not even a factor. Guess we may find out today what the return news is on Kane.
Read an article today on the Bruins possibly moving Brandon Carlo. He would be a nice get.
I wonder with no deadline trades yet if asking prices are ridiculous? I understand with so many teams in the playoff mix, that could be part of it as well. For the Oil I am sure they really need a date for Kane’s return. Then they will know the actual $ amount they have,,,, Hopefully anyways.
Guess we shall see in the next few days as Bowman said March 1 I believe.
Thumbs up for Brandon Carlo.
On 100% pod, Jeff Jackson said timeline with Kane has always been end of season and the knee maybe slowed that down. Said they are looking to have him available some time in the playoffs.
He also said they are looking for depth up front and depth on defence. They are happy with their D group but you need depth in playoffs.
Probably looking for a right shot and some size in the bottom 6 forwards.
Michael McCarron, come on down! You’re the next contestant on (If) The Price is Right!
Kevin Stenlund would be my pick.
Except McCarron is not good at playing the hockey.
McDavid at 37% goal share is startling. Any theories to kick us off here?
To me the puzzle is compounded by his 4 nations play, where he ran out of ice in a hurry due to competition but still played well. Or did he? Anyway, he didn’t look injured.
Is it simple fatigue? Maybe mental fatigue? That “best player in the world” tag gets very heavy, I wish they would stop that.
He was great in the 4 Nations , except maybe that 1st period of the final.
I think or hope he comes out on fire tonight.
I think the Worlds best player got sick of the NHL after they suspended him and got sick of getting hacked 200 times a game and the floridas of the world outpacing them in penalties every night.
Based on his verbal it genuinely seems like he’s just had enough. Let the guy take a mental break like Miller (for vastly different reasons) or the goalies they send to Hawaii and come back.
He’s literally exhibiting burnout.
P/60
McDavid 2.29
Hyman 1.63
RNH 1.18
All of the above are career lows or close.
It seems the power outage is widespread.
You mean the guys on his line aren’t performing because the line driver isn’t performing?
Truly groundbreaking work.
What’s truly groundbreaking is that you don’t understand that underperforming line mates also affect McDavid’s performance.
It’s a team game don’t you know.
Did you just troll yourself into defending Mcdavid? Well done you.
You could be right, He looked a bit disgusted on the bench after the 3rd goal the other night. Maybe he has had it with the goaltending and the teams play overall.
Him saying he is not playing up to par is honest, but wonder why. Mental burnout could be part of it I guess. He had a really busy year with playing hockey till June, Huge wedding , all adds up
Are you suggesting his wife might have something to do with it?
Where’s the performance coach fella? Seems like the bat signal is lit
Prospectopolis!
It’s a dectet of NAmateurs with the Terriers and the suspended Wakely the only ones home for a rest.
O’Reilly snapped a 14-game goalless streak with his first OHL hat-trick last night. He has matched last season’s point total (56) with 12 games remaining.
Like O’Reilly’s (and Nicholl’s) Knights, the Colts of Barrie have punched their playoff ticket. Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law will be short-staffed what with the latter’s four-game disbarment.
Flint has yet to clinch but is in a good position to do so, sitting 6th in the conference with an eight-point edge on 9th. Day, Clattenburg & Co. are five points back of 5th, which would allow them to avoid the three-headed monster of London, Kitchener & Windsor in round 1.
The House of Stone will likely not taste the postseason–at least in junior–as his Petes remain dead last in the O, 12 points back of 8th with ten games left.
Berry’s Jacks of Lumber are very likely to make it to the dance, 26 points inside a playoff spot.
All NCAA teams make the postseason within their respective conferences, but unless a miracle run happens for Vermont and/or Notre Dame (both teams well under .500), BU is likely the NAmateurs’ only hope to get selected for the Frozen Four.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 4 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 4 p.m.
Vermont (Määttä, Münzenberger) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Peterborough (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey,
Wakely) @ 5:30 p.m.All times, at all times, are Goose Lake time.
Any stats on McDavid with Bouchard vs McDavid with Nurse?
Asking for a friend
Tell your friend https://www.naturalstattrick.com/ has the information he’s looking for.
Considering it’s been reported that Gibson’s preferred teams are the Oilers and Canes, I’ll dub this game the Gibson bowl. Whoever wins gets him.
Wouldn’t it make more sense for whoever loses to get him?