Northern Lights dancing at Turtle Lake, SK. Photo by Todd Kirkpatrick
It’s difficult to see the Oilers losing often in a year where expectations were so high not long ago. There are some encouraging dashboard lights we can discuss, but there’s zero doubt this team is challenged offensively beyond the Glimmer Twins, Evan Bouchard and two or three guys who are productive when healthy.
How did the Oilers get here? Well, the free-agent forwards got old in a hurry and that’s bad. Real bad.
There’s also the matter of coach Kris Knoblauch hermetically sealed Jeff Skinner into a role where the winger cannot succeed. That’s especially galling since our dear friend math has shown us the truth and the way.
The coach did check down to Henrique in more of an offensive role than Nuge, and he did fire up the line of the decade who leaped tall buildings in a single bound.
THE NUMBERS
I have an article coming out this weekend that endorses the idea of running the Glimmer Twins with Zach Hyman until further notice. Something has to give with the Nuge. I’ve been talking about this for a long time now, certainly since Nuge-McDavid passed 200 minutes together. The coach has his reasons (the duo is 50 percent goal share five-on-five away from Draisaitl, 57 percent expected) but the offense is gone from 93’s stick.
It gives me no great pleasure to point this out, but just saying what is happening doesn’t really cut it.
THE 2017-18 MCDAVID WINGERS
Here are the totals for each of the seven main wingers who played with Connor McDavid in 2017-18. There was more offense going both ways, and the team’s style was more freewheeling than it is today. All but one (the expensive one, because Oilers) thrived offensively with 97. I’m especially impressed, looking back, with young Puljujarvi’s performance.
Nugent-Hopkins was stellar here, a top-end two-way forward and a fine complementary scorer at his peak. Playing with the purest offensive force on the planet helped, but credit where due Nuge walloped in 2017-18.
THE 2024-25 MCDAVID WINGERS
Let me ask you something. When you look at this, and focus on the Draisaitl number, can you honestly blame the coach for throwing those two over the boards at the same time? On the other hand, here are McDavid’s numbers with various linemates this season:
The captain is delivering quality with all but Connor Brown and Viktor Arvidsson, and I’m going to respectfully blame them. McDavid with Draisaitl is 3.19 this season, in 2017-18 it was 3.13. It all came back but one drop.
Look, Stan Bowman reportedly tried to get a winger at the deadline for McDavid, but the real problem is this team has too many veteran wingers who are no longer capable of finding the net. Ordinarily I would argue regression will come, but we are at 440 minutes for McDavid-Nuge. One of them is performing well and the other is in the ditch.
Nuge is delivering less offense this season than Milan Lucic did in 2017-18, and we all buried Lucic. Nuge will always be one of my all-time favourites, but it’s time to check down. Maybe run Henrique-McDavid or try Trent Frederic when he’s ready, but this much sadness is too much sorrow. It needs to end.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 3-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 37-24-4, 78 points in 65 games
The Lowdown hits today at noon, Sports 1440. Steve Lansky and Tyler Yaremchuk will be our guests and we’ll give you full throttle on the text line to sing the ventilator blues. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Is the depth scoring issues related to a lack of PP time for those guys? On a lot of other teams, guys like Ardvisson, Jinner and Henrique might be out there pretty regularly. But on this oilers team – never.
Both PPs tonight the big unit was out there for the whole thing.
These guys need the PP ice time to gain confidence and chemistry. I know that top unit is historic, and their conditioning allows them to play for 2 min, but they gotta share the wealth. After 1 min I wouldn’t mind seeing RNH and Hyman switch out for Ardvisson and Skinner or whoever is going offensively.
There is limited time on the PP and they should do a better job of sharing it.
No
Where would we be this year without our OT record (11-3) and that big German guy?
Mercy, I remember Nuge’s rookie season, scoring that hatrick versus his ‘home town’ Nucks early in season. He survived the DoD and gave us actual hope, bless that Burnaby boy.
He had one glaring mistake tonight, that ended in the back of the net. Skilled players will do that, see Bouch, Drai, McD, etc.
After his gaf, I was upset to see him out in OT, and realized at this point it’s not about benching a vet, it’s about winning the game. If McDrai plays the first shift it OT, who else would you have center the second line?
He’s in a funk all year, but bless Nuge. I hope he reverts back to form come playoff time.
I also remember Draisaitl’s rookie season before being sent back to the Dub. Now? From staying late after practice to give Poolparty one timers, from giving up numerous empty net goals to give a line mate one, to signing another 8 years and carrying the team this year, tonight giving Picks his props after scoring in OT…. bless that young German/Canadian.
My wife thinks Draisaitl is “greater” than McD and I laugh. Two different artists, two different athletes and we’re lucky as hell. Why compare the Stones and the Beatles? Enjoy them both. Not every single is a hit, but they make magic happen.
Many liked Mess more than Gretz. More power to them. History will tell. And many a hot take will tremble.
Little more credit to the Oilers for a game they fully deserved to win.
Picks was solid but the expected goals was 3.6 – 1.6 Oilers (via NST, there are other models).
Lack of finish remains a big issue but the Oilers played a good 2-way game.
Summarizing!
Berry (!), Nicholl and Wakely each had a helper.
Stonehouse and Akey did not garner soup.
O’Reilly missed his second straight game.
Picks could teach Skinner something about absorbing pucks, catching pucks, freezing pucks, and occasionally advancing pucks.
I hope Hyman is sick, not hurt. Barely played.
Limped off when the team was leaving after OT.
Stick with Picks
Last time Picks went back to back it didn’t go well…..
Were the last two starts back to back for Skinner better?
And that is one of the reasons why this team is struggling. (of course not the only one!)
If neither of them do well back to back, then alternate the rest of the season. I know goalies like to know when they play, but a shutout earns you another game.
I believe this was a tactic used by many coaches during the DoD. Sad it’s come to this, for now.
Pick 2nd star. Stat line: 24 saves, 1 assist. lol Not only did he shut the door but he found a way to impact the scoring! Congrats, Picks! You deserve a few more games. Maybe it’s the kick in the ass that Skinner needs, too.
Wish this game was broadcast in my area tonight but it was exciting to listen to! A much-needed win and love that Picks played well stopping pucks as well as assisting on the GWG. Will make things a bit more positive to read tomorrow.
NHL.live Best $20 per month I spend
Pickard is out fourth best offensive player……
That is a truly sad statement. Other than 29,97 and 2, it seems no one else is a real threat to score anytime soon. Another reason to bring up Savoie. What have you got to lose????
29 is the only reason to tune in these days.
Great game by Pickard – may as well run with him
Last time the Oilers did this, he let in 3 or 4 or 5 in the first period.
That’s what many said after he was great against the Canes – then, of course, he was awful, worst goalie performance of the calendar year, against the Ducks.
Picks is below .900 in 4 of his last 6 and 5 of his last 8.
Slick Picks dish!
#PlayLaBambaBaby
BOOM!!! Drai with the dagger!!! He’s money!!! Great awareness by Pick!!!
Maybe having only one player on the team with any finish is a winning strategy?
Outstanding game from Pickard – no weak ones! And Draisaitl is the best player in the world.
Yes, yes and yes!
Noted puck moving defenceman Calvin Pickard with a great OT.
Arvidson easily knocked down by engval. Exhibit A why he’s getting nothing done
Paired with Nuge no less.
He’s losing most races and battles these days. Time for a rest
Arvidson woof woof…… Pickard on his own.
And the coach goes to Arvidsson. Based on what? Seriously.
Terrible player
187 goals in 587 games.
He has played terribly this season. He’s not a terrible player.
Its not uncommon for players to underperform in their first year with a new team and then bounce-back after. I am hopeful that happens with Arvy on his 2-year contract.
Yup
Drai with absolutely savagely elite plays at both ends and his useless teammates can’t finish.
Good Grief.
He would have 20 more assists with league average linemates
Connor Brown is not worth an NHL roster spot.
My gawd.
There’s a bunch of guys on this roster the nhl wouldn’t miss
Jeezuz a 2 on 1 out of nothing. 2 fishing for pucks. Pickard saves him
It’s a skill to not have shots blocked from the point. Oilers D rate low on this skill
Pull Jones out and we are back to 7 hits on the game. We need some sandpaper on the team and the rest of the guys play stronger. We are butter soft this year. I’m not sure if there has ever been as big of a gap for least amount of hits in a year as this Oilers team. BUTTER SOFT!
Jones threw hits but he made multiple mistakes leading to goals against and took penalties.
His scratch was deserved.
Nuge needs to center the 3rd line and needs to be off power play. He has been poor for almost all season. He doesn’t deserve 1st line and pp time.
Paging Mathew Savoie!!!!!!!
Dammit, Nuge. You gotta eat that puck, there. We have no situational awareness…
This is last night all over again. There’s something fundamentally wrong with this team at the moment. These guys are going to melt away into the night again, aren’t they?
It’s no longer a slump. They’re just an average team in the nhl
Why doesn’t Nuge ever get the Skinner treatment?
Awful, awful turnover results in goal against.
He does. It’s just the other Skinner.
Could they maybe, possibly, extend the lead?
Theoretically possible!
Nope……
Nope
Great shift by 53, 42 and 33! Vets playing smart and creating a PP.
Great stop, Picks. Hey, Troy, how about you knock that shit off, eh? Keep it simple, dumbass.
Drai has 48 goals. The second-best goal scorer has 36. That’s a 33% (THIRTY-THREE PERCENT) margin of victory in the goals race.
The last time that happened was 1990-91. Thirty-four years ago!
And yet some still don’t think he deserves the Hart.
The rare player who plays Better after a new contract. He’s a beaut!
That’s alot of dusting it off on that PP. It’s an epidemic
We sure like to make pretty passes. Wish we like bombing the puck and crashing the net more…
There’s a reason #2 has become the shinpad assassin. He’s indecisive
Draisaitl is not a man… he’s a machine!
BOOM!!! DraiBomb!!!
Good penalty kill but gotta admit I laughed out loud when Darnell made that chest high backhand pass on the rush in front of their net. lol Not his specialty, for sure
Definitely a penalty but Drai put himself in that spot…let’s kill it for him.
Every shift Leon creates: Connor Brown, well, not finishing…..
Its wild how dominant Leon is – like almost every shift – even playing with barely bottom sixers.
NHL.com just put out their survey for Hart and MacKinnon was clearly in the lead.
MacKinnon gets to play with either Rantanen or Necas. Drai’s most consistent linemate has been Podkolzin, rocking a 65-6-15-21.
93% expected goal share in the 1st (5 on 5), per NST.
Every goalie we play looks Vézina calibre, right now…we need a breakout game where we bury a team to remember how to score…but let’s just start with one…
Stupid work. Missed the start.
Go get em, boys! Forecheck hard! Backcheck harder!!! Win battles!!! Get the puck on net and get to the NET!!!
Hat ✅
Jersey ✅
Iced tea in a fancy glass ✅
Let’s Do This!
GO OILERS!!
👊🏽👊🏽👊🏽
Henrique/McDavid/Hyman
Perry/Drai/Brown
Podz/Nuge/Arvidsson
Skinner/Kapanen/Janmark
Defence – same.
I don’t know about any of the bottom 9 but I have been saying for a while that Henrique is mis-cast as a 2-way 3C – he’s not a shutdown type defensive player. He’s an offence first guy. I’m not positive he can contribute consistently in the top 6 but he’s more of a top 6 player than a 3C.
The Kapanen 4C experiment needs to die RFN. Call up Philp and keep him up. He is NHL worthy and we need him up to speed. If they can get him AND Savoie in the lineup even better. Ease Philp into PK to eventually replace Brown (or Janmark). The PK is the only thing keeping them in the lineup right now.
also, why the hell aren’t they playing Skinner in the top 6??? Play him to his strengths dammit!
Feel sorry for Drai…….
The league’s leading goal-scorer is playing with Perry and Brown?
Just give him the Hart and the Masterson already for what he’s enduring.
and absolutely dominated, every shift, in the first.
Janmark in for Jones and Pickard starts.
Nothing surprising here.
Jones played under 5 min, took a penalty and made a turnover that eventually led to a goal (lots happened between the turnover and the goal but puck management in the 3rd period with a one-goal lead by a 4th liner did not happen).
Condors continue to be crazy banged out. Perrault and Grubbe out (neither “day to day”).
If the team also felt they are a bit slow, Savoie is right there in front of them. If coach still insist he needs “mistake free” hockey players and keeps riding his favourites, it tells us he does not feel the line up needs some speed and energy added.
Actually, I stand corrected. He is giving Jones a try out. Some want to flush him already but lets remember he was not brought in to put points per 60, he was brought in to add energy and some beef. Give him some time, tell him mix it up in front of the net.
The energy brought by Jones has decreased from game to game to game and in two of his games, he’s been at least partially responsible for a goal against.
By your own measure, don’t be too quick to judge.He is given a chance to turn his fate around, have to see what he can do, mistakes will happen.
Gregor reporting that the Oilers have shut down Regula for the season – expected to be healthy and ready to go for camp.
All good, activating him this season would have involved waivers. Now he’s Oilers property and they can evaluate, etc. at camp.
100% Frederic on 97s wing, see how Frederic is rolling when he gets in, may take a few games before he gets going again. It seems like 97 is beyond frustrated with not only himself but his linemates and the season in general. They looked defeated after the buzzer last night. I think they may come around but damn… frustrated, tired looking team right now. Its a few things and they have all been commented on in these comments, not just 1 thing.
I’m tired of 97 looking tired