The Edmonton Oilers finish a road trip today that looked hopeless until the Islanders game Friday night, The club could end up going 2-2-0 and that would feel like a victory. This Oilers team is capable of the highest highs and the lowest lows. Sometimes on the same shift!
Mike Griffith, a credible source with a bunch of bona fides in his back pocket, reported yesterday that Derek Ryan might be returning together. That may mean Zach Hyman’s injury against New York (the other New York) will keep him out of the lineup. It could also mean the coach wants a real center on the fourth line. There are players on the farm who can help, but only one in a key role.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 4-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 38-24-4, 80 points in 66 games
A 5-3-0 start to March would allow us to talk about the February swoon as an isolated event despite the considerable wobble we’ve seen so far this month.
Between November 23 and January 31, this Oilers team had a five-on-five save percentage of .917. That was No. 12 in the league, acceptable spot for a team that spends $3.6 million on goalies.
Since February 1, the goaltending sits at .882, that’s worst in the league. Oilers need more from their goaltenders, and this is a stand and deliver moment in the young career of Stuart Skinner.
Rob Vollman invented a measure for starting goaltenders years ago. It’s called Quality Start Percentage, and the league average hovers around 53 percent. In 2022-23, Skinner was at 60 percent, moved up an inch the following year (61 percent) and is in the ditch this year at 47.7 percent.
I’m of a mind to stay the course, even in to next season when Skinner’s value deal concludes (summer 2026). Why? Goaltenders are just like people. They have ups and downs, and sometimes it’s an entire season.
Thatcher Demko’s last four seasons in quality start percentage: .574; .438; .647 and .471. It happens. Winning teams don’t overreact to these things, they don’t cost themselves in assets of caps.
An example of the wrong way? Here are Devan Dubnyk’s quality start percentages over a number of seasons. Can you spot where the swarm hit him? Do you see what happened after the Oilers traded him?
Dubnyk QSP: .545, .548, .541, .355, .655, .515, .619, .610, .576 before losing the starter’s role at age 32.
The Oilers have an asset, a young starter with plenty of playoff experience and a dandy cap hit that runs through the end of next season. Logic and reason suggest he’ll regress, and it’s possible Stan Bowman adds a layer of insurance this summer.
If you hang around this organization long enough you can sense things. I sense Bowman plans to stay the course with Skinner, and if the playoffs run counter to expectations then it’s a summer situation.
Skinner at 61 percent one year ago delivered, and he backstopped the team to Game 7 of the SCF. This season, he is off the pace. The deadline is past, Calvin Pickard is the only other option.
For Stuart Skinner, that’s opportunity. For the Oilers, there is risk but a reckoning this summer, come what may.
New for The Athletic: Is the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL team equipped to help the NHL team soon?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6205608/2025/03/16/oilers-recalls-savoie-2025/
When Ekholm returns this will be be collectively the best D we’ve had since 2006. Emberson was a nice pick-up he quietly does his job. As for Walman I’m super impressed with his confidence with the puck and his hockey IQ. I think we’ve seem enough of Kulak to know he ramps it up 25% come playoffs and I expect another big real season for him. In saying that I do think we see Kulak and his ring flipped for some nasty this offseason.
Interesting article on Hockey Writers about the peculiar regression of Connor. He’s having the worst season of his career in most statistical categories and seems tired. It doesn’t help that Nuge and Hyman are having down seasons either. Every Oiler has regressed except Leon and maybe Perry and Pickard some games. I think we see an overhaul this summer, I’m expecting a 1st round collapse. Really hope I’m wrong.
CF 64.7 best of career
FF 63.6 2nd best of career.
On ice save % 86.9 it’s comical and worse of career.
PDO 98.8 worst of career.
McDavid is fine, his wingers have lost a step. I’ve defended Knoblauch but he needs to give others a run. Not giving Savoie any McDavid time was and is a sin.
Hyman is doing more standing and watching then he ever has before. Nuge seems to be suffering Dallas Eakins all over again.
Coach says he expects Ekholm to return to the lineup by no later than Thursday.
It really says something about a player who can “continue to slump” to a 14 points in a 10 game point streak stretch……
Maybe the Rangers will take a breath after a huge win against the Jackets yesterday in today’s “less important” game for them?
Sheshterkin played last night – I presume we see Quick.
Aren’t they all important this time of year?
I guess they figure they can start their backup goalie against Edmonton.
Of course they are but does would an Oilers game against LA right now feel the same as an Oilers game against the Rags? Rangers are in direct competition with Columbus for a playoff spot – that game yesterday for them was huge.
Sure and it appears they’re expecting an easier game tonight against Edmonton , who actually defeated them 6-2 and started them on a major down turn in their season. Which they seem to have recovered from now. Do you think they’ve forgotten? I hope so.
I’m not sure if they think its “an easier” game but its not quite as important a game as their game last night was, right?
I agree that was a big win for the Rangers Oilers need to pounce on them with a 2-0 1st intermission lead. I have a good feeling on Skinner scoring multiple goals tonight.
EVERY game is the most important game of the season.
I have nothing against Derek Ryan but, as I mentioned yesterday, he has been “meh” in Bako as the 2nd line center.
He’s -10 in 13 games (Philp, who has been playing 3C has a positive goal differential in recent times).
I look forward to getting Frederick and Kane in the lineup as it should give them enough wingers to run Drai/McDavid/Nuge/Henrique down the middle.
Neither Kap nor Janmark are centers and I don’t think Ryan can play in the league any more.
Or they could run Draisaitl/McDavid/ Frederic/Henrique. It’s still to be determined.
An option, and Bowman spoke about Frederick likely playing either 3C or top 6 wing.
I can’t profess to be an expert on this player I believe he’s play much more wing and, from what I can tell, his style seems better suited to the wing.
I would agree. The question might be though, is he a better 3c than Nuge? Or is he a better top six winger than Nuge? It may even vary from game to game.
Nuge is nowhere near a top 3 Cman period.
I’m not so certain he couldn’t handle a 3C position at all.
The reluctance to play Skinner higher in the lineup is baffling. The Oilers will not help themselves.
If I’m not mistaken, weren’t Skinner & Arvidsson on Leon’s wingers last game?
No, that was Perry & Brown.
Look at the defence line up we have stacking up. It’s very good.
Ekholm
Nurse
Walman
Bouchard
Kulak
Emberson
Klingberg
Finally
Yes. I see so much hand wringing over the roster turnover from last year, and while it is certainly justified wrt to the forwards, when healthy our d core I feel is the best in the McDavid era.
Don’t forget Troy Stecher the warrior.
In my humble opinion, I’m in agreement with all of your thoughts re Skinner
We should all be aware he is capable of quality goaltending, but as a starter, is too often prone to stretches of poor goaltending. This lack of consistency is well-described. https://oilersnation.com/news/why-the-oilers-would-be-taking-a-significant-gamble-if-they-stick-with-their-current-goaltending-tandem
Many teams can find success with a tandem, and there are often reasonable targets available in the summer. Pickard, as good as his W-L record has been, is simply not a tandem goalie, he’s a backup. Get some insurance in the summer and have a coach who is willing to play a 1B rather that being stubborn.
Stan Bowman may not know the story of Dubnyk. Hopefully he will not throw away a goalie with a year that appears to be an outlier.
IMHO it’s consistency that is the difference between being an NHL starting goaltender and a backup goaltender. Pickard is capable of quality starts too. Between the two of them neither one has stood up to the starters box with the consistency required from a starting goaltender at the NHL level.
Mind you there needs to be some consistent play defensively from the team playing in front of these goaltenders also.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
45m
Not to beat a dead horse repeatedly, but our secondary scoring is gone due to this past summer’s decisions. McLeod, Holloway, and Foegele. The three combined would have about 60 goals. We got older and slower, fewer hits and zero secondary scoring without all three of these players.
Even strength (NOT: 5v5 but surely close) scoring this season:
Draisaitl 34-36-70
McDavid 15-41-56
—-
Holloway 16-22-38
Foegele 19-18-37
McLeod 14-20-34
—
Hyman 16-10-26
RNH 10-12-22
Brown 7-15-22
Podkolzin 6-15-21
Perry 13-6-19
Skinner 11-8-19
Arvidsson 8-10-18
Henrique 7-8-15
Janmark 2-12-14
Kapanen 5-5-10
Worth noting none pf the 3 guys in the 3-4-5 spots ever lines up with an offensive dynamo anywhere near the class of 29 & 97, whereas most of the guys nearer the bottom of the list get that chance at least occasionally.
It was a blunderbuss of an off season.
OMG! That is horrendous when you show the numbers like that! That is some cringe worthy gm work.
The damage was already done before the GM arrived on the scene.
Bowman was likely already on the scene but the NHL did not want to announce bad PR during the draft and free agency, so the formal announcement was buried in July.
its true that EDM’s wingers get chances to play with the best in the world and equally true that they never get power play time.
i don’t buy the notion that Foegel, McLeod and Holloway would have the same success if they stayed.
The list is specifically even strength scoring.
For the record, Foegele has scored 0-0-0 on the PP this season, every single one of his points has come at evens, very similar yo what he did here last season .
McLeod has 1 powerplay point. Only Holloway has seen regular PP duty, where his 11 points are over & above the total shown above.
It’s hard not to say they would have had more success on a team they’re familiar with than the four newcomers that replaced them (Skinner, Arvidsson, Podkolzin & Kapanen) of which Podkolzin is the only keeper IMO. Hopefully Arvidsson will be better next season. Foegele was gone anyway, MacLeod was signed and Holloway was the one that got away unfortunately.
Totally agree. Opportunity and deployment are not equal across different teams. The fact that those departed players are playing so many minutes is a direct reflection of the roster construction in their new zip codes. IE lack of depth.
Add Broberg into that mix to twist the knife a little deeper
Warren Foegele even strength stats
Year by year
15, 27, 18, 22, 27, 37, currently 34.
Warren Foegele had one decent season in Edmonton 5×5 running with Draisaitl.
Is having an outlier season in Los Angeles riding with Moore and Byfield.
Foegele having a career year at 28, congrats to him.
Oilers were right in not paying the bump.
Maybe a miracle happens and Foegele has 3 good years in LA.
Mcleod was traded for a superior talent.
Holloway was a miss not resigning him, but not a miss by management being forced into resigning their RFA’s at gunpoint.
If Hyman is banged up and not at 100%. Sit him out. Put Jones back in.
I hope Skinner has a game tonight. He really needs a great performance
Good morning everyone. Have there been any updates at all on Frederic’s return since when he arrived ( they said 2-3 weeks).
I read that Gregor reported he is due to begin skating again this week.
Thank you
The Oilers could use Derek Ryan. I think they need to get Matt Savoie involved also. He played in a few games when the rest of the Oilers were terrible. The Oilers need some young talent to rise up. Add in Frederic, Ryan, Savoie, Kane and the Oilers have a few different looks that should give the team more competition. Hopefully the team can run Bouchard Ekholm, Nurse Kulak, Emberson Walman in no particular order. The Oilers are already an underdog now with their terrible play as of late. They are getting trashed everywhere in the media. The team may have to rally behind Calvin Pickard until Stu can find his game. A 32 year old goalie pulled from the scap pile is a Cinderella story in the playoffs. Someone make a Pickard song and lets go!
Ryan is still a very good faceoff guy and was still good on the pk. At least he went as hard as he could every game. I thought Savoie played hard and was showing chemistry with Drai. Arvidsson is doing nothing , nor is ODs when on that 2nd line.
He was still a good faceoff guy but no longer effective on the PK – hence why he was taken off the PK for months prior to his re-assignment.
He got caved in for goals in Bako and I’m not sure he can play in the NHL any longer.
I always thought Pickard was a so-sp back-up, when I think he’s done he plays more than good and when I trumpet him he lays a egg like the last time he went back to back. We need wins we have 1 forward going excluding McDavid on the PP which means we need stops and Skinner needs another reset before his confidence really tanks. Pickard should be our man today whether you like it our not he gives us the best chance of winning unless it’s more about feelings.
Maybe you should be saying Skinner is done so he can be more than good. As I said yesterday alternating the goalies from here on out might create more consistent play between the pipes, not only that, but between their ears.
Prospectius!
A quartet would be on the go today but for injuries and unknown return therefrom.
Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law were only at half-capacity as the former missed the previous game. The latter is coming around though, with 1 + 4 his last three GP.
The Knights remain 2nd in the country. O’Reily has missed the last two games with what’s termed an UBI. Nicholl has assisted in each of his last three GP.
To follow up from yesterday–BU has advanced to the Hockey East semis where they battle UConn on Thursday. A win would put them in the final on Friday vs. either Maine or Northeastern.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ noon
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 2 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are New Norway time.
Thanks LT. I also hope we stay the course with Skinner given his age, contract, and what he has gained in experience so far (especially in terms of playoffs),and are not heading into another Dubnyk situation. If I may, for those not familiar with QSP, here is a link to another article from yesterday, explaining it in evaluation of Oettinger’s season. For 2024/25, league average is sitting at .901, but a goalie is also considered to have a quality start with a sv% of .885 when facing under 20 SOG in the game. For example, a goalie can allow 2 GA on 18 SOG = .888, but that’s still a quality start, especially if those 2 GA were high danger/Grade A SOG.
Let’s add some context to the Jake Oettinger discourse
I got curious about the “Quality Start” stat and found this interesting discussion about another goalie who’s perceived to be underperforming, Oettinger. A good read. A useful antidote, perhaps, to the goalie panic that infects most fan bases (Florida notwithstanding; Bob’s numbers are down but Panthers fans don’t care).
https://www.shapshotshockey.com/p/lets-add-some-context-to-the-jake
Ps. The article notes that goalie numbers are trending down, with the exception of Helly
Numbers are trending weirdly. According to Hockey-reference, average save percentage has dropped from .903 to .901 this season, while average GAA has also dropped, from 2.91 to 2.79. (note, this GAA not G/GP, where a veritable pandemic of empty net goals in recent years has provided the illusion that offensive output is higher than it really is)
How is this possible that both GAA & Sv% are reducing? Because average shots (against) has plummeted by 2 full shots per game, from 30.1 to 28.1 which is lowest in the cap era.
Are shots being counted differently? Being limited by defensive systems? Being limited by *offensive* systems?
i suspect the last of those, that many teams (not: the Oilers) are choosing to “waste” fewer shots that have a low percentage chance in favour of more cycling which kills clock, or more cross seam passes which might result in a better quality shot IF a shot results at all. Which impacts save percentages, & by extension derivative stats like Quality Starts.
Might be some interesting stuff to find counting year over year raw totals & ratios of high- vs medium- vs low-danger shots, but that’s well outside my lane, or at least today it is.
This is going to sound weird, but I have noticed so many times this season where a clear save has been made and it either doesn’t get added to the shot clock at all or it gets added and then removed later. This is all games, not just Oiler games. I remember Stu commenting after a game where he had made an early save and then that shot & save was taken away later in the game. So, I do wonder if shots are being counted differently but the other points you bring up about not taking a shot in favour of higher quality shots is also happening because that has been noticeable also. Didn’t Wayne say, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take?”
Huge game. Oilers at MSG.
They really don’t want to end up opening on the road to LA in the playoffs this year.
Especially when you consider L.A. has the best home ice record in the league. Only 3 regulation losses.
Quality starts should trump save% imo. It isn’t talked about enough. The season isn’t one long game.
Per DNB:
Oilers morning skate at NYR:
– Janmark to centre and Kapanen to the wing is the only change up front based on the start of last game.
– Skinner in the starter’s net.
I deduce this means Hyman is good to go. Music!
I hope Hyman isn’t limited.
Update:
Per DNB:
Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said Zach Hyman is a game-time decision after playing sparingly in the first and third periods on Friday. Hyman was a full participant in morning-skate drills, so it would seem surprising if he doesn’t play tonight.
They sure could use good old Ryan MacLeod right now. Instead of relying on Janmark & Kapanen for center depth.
Yup.
I would suggest that they could also use Matt Savoie, allowing Nuge to help that depth.