The Edmonton Oilers finish a road trip today that looked hopeless until the Islanders game Friday night, The club could end up going 2-2-0 and that would feel like a victory. This Oilers team is capable of the highest highs and the lowest lows. Sometimes on the same shift!
Mike Griffith, a credible source with a bunch of bona fides in his back pocket, reported yesterday that Derek Ryan might be returning together. That may mean Zach Hyman’s injury against New York (the other New York) will keep him out of the lineup. It could also mean the coach wants a real center on the fourth line. There are players on the farm who can help, but only one in a key role.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 4-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 38-24-4, 80 points in 66 games
A 5-3-0 start to March would allow us to talk about the February swoon as an isolated event despite the considerable wobble we’ve seen so far this month.
Between November 23 and January 31, this Oilers team had a five-on-five save percentage of .917. That was No. 12 in the league, acceptable spot for a team that spends $3.6 million on goalies.
Since February 1, the goaltending sits at .882, that’s worst in the league. Oilers need more from their goaltenders, and this is a stand and deliver moment in the young career of Stuart Skinner.
Rob Vollman invented a measure for starting goaltenders years ago. It’s called Quality Start Percentage, and the league average hovers around 53 percent. In 2022-23, Skinner was at 60 percent, moved up an inch the following year (61 percent) and is in the ditch this year at 47.7 percent.
I’m of a mind to stay the course, even in to next season when Skinner’s value deal concludes (summer 2026). Why? Goaltenders are just like people. They have ups and downs, and sometimes it’s an entire season.
Thatcher Demko’s last four seasons in quality start percentage: .574; .438; .647 and .471. It happens. Winning teams don’t overreact to these things, they don’t cost themselves in assets of caps.
An example of the wrong way? Here are Devan Dubnyk’s quality start percentages over a number of seasons. Can you spot where the swarm hit him? Do you see what happened after the Oilers traded him?
Dubnyk QSP: .545, .548, .541, .355, .655, .515, .619, .610, .576 before losing the starter’s role at age 32.
The Oilers have an asset, a young starter with plenty of playoff experience and a dandy cap hit that runs through the end of next season. Logic and reason suggest he’ll regress, and it’s possible Stan Bowman adds a layer of insurance this summer.
If you hang around this organization long enough you can sense things. I sense Bowman plans to stay the course with Skinner, and if the playoffs run counter to expectations then it’s a summer situation.
Skinner at 61 percent one year ago delivered, and he backstopped the team to Game 7 of the SCF. This season, he is off the pace. The deadline is past, Calvin Pickard is the only other option.
For Stuart Skinner, that’s opportunity. For the Oilers, there is risk but a reckoning this summer, come what may.
Add in Frederic-Kane-Ekholm=Glory.
Stat muse says Oilers have an 87.1% PK last 10 games. Along with a 33% PP. Good arrows
Oilers played very well.
Can see why they’re third favorites to win the cup.
Funny enough I’d expect Ekholm to return and make a massive difference to this team. He’s Lidstrom light as far as I’m concerned and the healthier he is the better.
Skinner, Bouchard, and Nuge. When those three play well, this team looks so much better.
Really good game from Skinner, and man, Bouchard is starting to look like the real Bouchard again. That would be lovely!
THAT was the Stu that justifies referring to him as a value player… tonight we got FULL value. Consistency has been an issue for him this season, let’s see if he can maintain this level… he did it a ton last season, his growth continues, time for repeat Skinner v.2025.
BTW . . . LT, he heard you, he heard you good… Nuge was performing like his old self, great positioning, great stick. He was real good.
Massive W against a desperate home team whilst missing arguably their top d man and winger.
Wow, 2 1 again – great goaltending again – Now can they get that consistently?
Some emotion from 97 that we haven’t seen for a long time – Need more of that
Stu is a wildcard. If in position great. Moving an adventure. Glove never know
Absolutely, you sure as hell wouldn’t want to give him any credit.
I give Stu credit. Just pointing out what is well known
Oilers were down Ekholm, their defensive rock.
With the game on the line, Shesterkin let in a couple of soft ones, and Skinner stood tall. Well done Stu!
Forged in the crucible! #PlayLaBambaBaby!
Drai and empty net goals, name a less iconic duo.
Draisaitl’s getting 500+ goals in his stellar career.
He’s also a paragon of sportsmen being near perfect role models.
Skinner having good fame in goal
He definitely is.
Missed slufoot on Brown. More situational officiating.
Brown is the player you want to take one for the team.
BOOM!!! Connor finally shoots!!! What a shot!
If I were a betting man…
I’d stick whatever I can afford for McDavid to either equal or beat the playoff goal record.
Prime time McDavid with a goal scorer’s goal, going up main street on Broadway.
Connor shot the puck. Alert the media.
McDavid with the New York bo-dagger!
Why doesnt this Mcdavid guy shoot more? He could get 60 plus with a shot like that…
Passes up shots so he can surprise the G when he finally does?
He’s passed up at least 3 shots in the slot.
Vintage McD!!!!
D-men need to stop throwing prayers to the middle on the rush – those are the plays that head for fast breaks the other way.
What I’m the actual F is that call about? If anything it’s a cross check on Skinner.
The term is “game management”. Anything to keep the game close.
3 forwards low plus Nurse – leads to a fast break the other way and a PK.
With a lead in the third.
Thers been a notable increase in D up in the play last 3 games. End result has been an increase in 2 on 1s against
Extended O-Zone time for the Rangers because of a careless giveaway by Bouch.
Egregious soft non-clear by Walman led to that sequence of pain.
It’s like the Oilers teach that, eh? Smh…
Arvi’s got a hard shot, may have deflected up off D man’s stick too.
BOOM!!! Arvi Rocket!!! Where has that been all year!!!
wow. Decent shot by Arvy, but not sure what Suresterschkin was doing there.
Deflected up by D stick.
Need to shoot the puck more often
Terrible goal by Sheshterkin!
If it was against Stu, I would agree with you. But it was Shersh so clearly it was a fabulous shot.
It went off the defenders stick.
Interestingly, that’s what happened on the SCW goal last June. How many people vilify Skinner for that goal.
It’s tough to be a goalie in good old Edmonton because all goals are your fault for some people. You could have done something.
The bar was set high by Moog-Fuhr-Ranford-Joseph in a 17 year glorious era for the good guys.
Brown and Nuge wont ever score again…
What a fantastic play by Podz to get him that puck. I know Nuge has struggled mightily but still cannot believe he missed that finish.
Great play by Arvi, great play by Nuge (on the pass retrieval), great play by Podz – Nuge can’t finish.
I will say, as much as Connor Brown can’t finish, it seems when he is with Drai he is all over the scoring chances….
Looks like the rangers have upper their effort but we haven’t. Gotta tighten those workboots and start winning some battles, fellas.
Bouchard has to cut that garbage out.
Can he, though??
Double missed assignment from Connor Brown there. But he’s Knoblauch’s boy so Leon’s got to carry him.
On his knees, stick off the ice…
It’s a little thing, but I really liked that forearm shiver Max Jones doled out while gaining some room to split the two NYR defenders in the offensive zone there. It buys time, and possibly buys some time on subsequent plays.
Stecher hurt himself on that hit on Rempe.
Knoblauch right back to the previous lines. Clown stuff.
Loved how our superstar just launched the puck to the crowded area and let the guys muck it up. That’ll open up for cross seam passes later if they gotta think about net front, which they haven’t had to much.
J Skinner gettin some love. He’s earned it. McD with Skinner and Arvi has some serious bite if they’re all playing hard, like that shift that drew the penalty.
Other Skinner guy is doing his job. Keep steady, Stu. We need ya, buddy.
The Worm worming
Wormy goal
BOOM!!! Perry gets dirty!!!
Wouldnt it be weird if Perry gets 20 this year? He is having a very good season. Especially getting mostly 4th line minutes. Perry is the definition of a player you hate unless he is on your team.
I sure friggin hated him, too! lol But he knows where the goals are scored and isn’t afraid to get dirty. I know he’s the type to tell players to get dirty and he’s proving it.
hell of an effort by Perry! good goal off his knees!
Perry’s skill from his knees is downright scary.
J Skinner dippsy doodles on display today!
J Skinner having a nice period. Please coach give him some Connor time…
The only think less crisp that the Oilers right now are the Rangers in their own zone.
McDavid STRUGGLING with the puck early.
The reason Connor doesn’t get many calls like that is cuz he rarely goes down. It could be called every other shift, really.
Been saying he needs to sell more calls for a long time. Skinner did a good job of it this period
J Skinner with another backcheck and steal…come on, coach…
McDavid must not be able to feel he can beat a goalie from the mid-slot.
Must be trying to get that shooting % up. Tap ins only