Hey Edmonton Oilers, look what you can do! After a couple of hazy road games, the club set their collective jaw and said to hell with this noise. The result? An OT win over the Islanders and a strong, impressive game versus the New York Rangers last night at MSG. Music! The team looked focused, precise, creative, balls out, willing to sacrifice and of course the Glimmer Twins were there to lead the way. Last night’s game was like a good night’s sleep or sunshine after the rain. A fine effort by all involved.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 5-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 39-24-4, 82 points in 66 games
I have Edmonton going 3-2-1 over the rest of March, if they accomplish it the team will have finished a hair better than my prediction. This team has been so unpredictable this season, a month of expected results would be satisfying.
THE NUMBERS
The Oilers received solid goaltending in New York over two games. The difference is Calvin Pickard faced zero HD scoring chances (according to NST) and Skinner saw 10. It’s a random thing and could be reversed next time, but it was good to see both men impact a win positively. It has been a trying year for the guardiens.
The Oilers had a pile of defensemen play effectively while being deployed for over 20 minutes. Music! Better health likely, maybe that godforsaken flu bug has finally left the roster. Also word that Mattias Ekholm is back this week, bringing up an interesting topic of conversation. HOW do you deploy the top 4D? I think Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse and Walman have to be inside the top four, right? We’ll see. Kulak has been effective, maybe the Oilers will run with a third pairing capable of outplaying the other two. That would be mind blowing.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had himself a game, and that’s probably the most exciting thing about last night. If Nuge-McDavid-Hyman can outscore at previous rates, we know Leon can post well over 50 percent with damn near anyone. I am hopeful they run Frederic-Draisaitl-Arvidsson if he’s right on the top two lines, but we’ll see. Corey Perry is making most of the wingers look like they’re shy scorers, and in some cases the shoe fits.
It was most pleasing to see Connor McDavid launch a shot from the high slot and score. There are miles of goals on his stick, but he’s wired to be a playmaker. Maybe that goal gives him confidence to try more shots.
Leon Draisaitl is such a gift. He’s supposed to be exiting his prime, but prime was probably afraid to tell him. I’ve been blessed to watch so many Oilers talents who were touched by God over the years. Leon is truly unique and an absolute joy to watch play hockey.
We hit the air at noon on Sports 1440, with Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and Host of Puck Social will join us talk about where the Oilers ideally land in the standings at the end of the year. There is benefit in finishing second, believe it or not. Jason Gregor will pop in to update us on Mattias Ekholm and Trent Frederic as two important pieces of the roster get closer to easing into the lineup. Jays talk (Yankees rotation is lost in the flood, that division will be wild) and NFL, NBA plus Declan’s Momma MMA. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: What the Edmonton Oilers can expect from Trent Frederic when he enters lineup
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6207255/2025/03/17/edmonton-oilers-trent-frederic-stats/
With home games I’d try to limit Bouchard to the other teams 3rd and 4th lines and of course the PP. If he only plays 12 minutes all the better.
Evan Bouchard (according to PuckIQ):
TOI/GF-GA/ CF%
Elites: 414.6/ 18-17/ 58%
Middle: 477.3/ 18-15/ 59%
Gritensity: 364.4/ 19-18/ 61%
Not sure that would work out very well for us. We could reduce Bouch to Desharnais level minutes, but that would leave quite the chasm of elite defending to fill, especially considering Bouchard is 3rd on the team in GF% against the elites. Kulak and Nurse have 51.6% and 52.6% to Bouchard’s 52.4%. Who do you suggest takes those minutes if we’re pushing Bouchard to PP specialist?
If you want Bouch to be making outlet passes to McDavid (as I do) it’s unlikely he’ll be matched against bottom tier opposition.
but hey, we could always bury him & have those butter passes going to Janmark & Kapanen.
I agree with you 99% with the exception of the Ceci stretch pass on the tape to a inspired Janmark. This was the greatest outlet pass I’ve seen since watching Al Hamilton spring Ron Chipperfield a few years ago.
Nuge at 3C needs to be explored. As both coach and Rob Brown have said, he touches the puck more at center and perhaps is more engaged and effective. It’s hard to imagine this player can’t help a positive 3rd line behind the big two centers.
Also, this team needs someone they can plan 4C and neither Kap nor Janny are it. Henrique can be it and, when Frederick and Kane are added to the lineup, they should have the wingers for the 4 legit centers team.
Spine this team.
Also, it’s was two shifts but Skinner and Arvy flanking McDavid was as dominant as can be in two shift. Take notice coach.
Your last sentence. AGREED.
Edmonton’s new super lines.
Skinner-McDavid-Arvidsson
Frederic-Leon-Hyman
Kane-Nuge-Podkolzin
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Their shift at the end of the first was fantastic. 3 Grade A shots & a drawn penalty as they overpowered the Rangers & swarmed the net.
I was absolutely stunned to see Kapanen start the next 5v5 shift (the following period) on McDavid’s line, rather than any effort made to capture lightning in a bottle. The whole reason 53 & 33 were brought in was to bolster yhe top 6 be it with Draisaitl (as planned) or McDavid. Months later, not much progress, but there was a jolt of chemistry shown there that got immediately ignored.
Striking enough to me that the shift was my Good Thing on last night’s CoH podcast, & the coach’s reticence in responding to it was my Bad Thing.
It was a small sample size. However, Knoblauch certainly will have it locked in his memory banks.
Can’t forget Kapanen-Ryan-Perry & Philp-Savoie.
“There are miles of goals on his stick, but he’s wired to be a playmaker. Maybe that goal gives him confidence to try more shots.”
I was really hoping McDavid’s 72 goal season would give him the confidence to try more shots.
Props to Stu Skinner. He blocked out the noise, played a low event game, tracked the puck, made some great saves and looked focused. Its funny what good tending will do.
Currently in 2nd, but the Kings have 2 games in hand. Those two games against them are going to be bangers unless somebody fails out. I don’t see that happening
The thing about the Oiler defense is there’s so much flexibility with the addition of Walman.
With his comfort level on both sides along with Kulak’s abilities on both sides the options are countless. It would also appear they can get along without Ekholm with this added depth. There’s no doubt his return will up the anti even more, but they now have the luxury to ease him back into the defense rotation. Therefore this is what I see initially.
Walman-Bouchard
Nurse-Kulak
Ekholm-Emberson
I like that set up. Play all three pairs and keep them fresh
Small sample size, but Walman-Bouchard doesn’t look like a drop off from Ekholm-Bouchard. I think Walman plays with a little more pace than Ekholm, which influences Bouchard to move a little quicker.
Also small sample size, but Ekholm-Emberson has excellent metrics. 20-10 shots, 78 xGF%, 14-3 high dangers.
They will be ready for the Jets.
For all the doom and gloom about the Oilers recent play, each of the Oilers, Kings and Knights have 5 wins in their last 10. The other two teams have two extra points from losing in extra time.
Nuge with a surprise 3 point game! He now has 42, could this be the season he finally breaks the 50 point barrier?
Glad they pulled out a win.
And Amen, LT. Connor, please shoot more.
Actually, this entire Oilers forward core could and should be more selfish. So many times I’ve seen them pass themselves out of shooting opportunity, especially off the rush and on the wings. And some of these (especially from McDavid) are grade A chances he’s giving up to try and find a perfect pass.
This team generates too many shots from the point, and defers to the D men too often.
Best thing I saw last night was this Oilers team (both McDavid and Arvidsson) fire the biscuit on rushes.
For forwards struggling offensively as much as they have, the first place to start is to be more selfish. And right now, it’s not even selfish to be shoot first.
It should be direct order number 1 from Knob and co. And if Evander comes back, and Frederic is a shooter too, that’ll be helpful come playoff time.
Jeff Skinner looked engaged last night which is good news. If he gets an early goal in the playoffs it could light a fire.
I thought he played a solid game and deserves to play more. He is working hard and had some great shifts, drawing 2 penalties. Let him get some confidence and he will start to score.
LOL- he’ll need a long stick to score from the press box.
ugh… he should be playing. I think he has taken his medicine from the early season and it has worked. Let him play so we can actually score some goals.
I have no doubt he will be pumped to finally be playing playoff hockey. He’s also playing for a contract next season in Edmonton or elsewhere.
The focus for coaches is while still keeping the structure to support in their own zone, finding ways to unlock more offense. Running Skinner on a top line, for example, moving Nuge to line 3 to give him lower competition, putting Frederic on a top line to bash some goals in, these are all possibilities.
Having the 6 best D all playing at the same time is only going to help all of this too. If Kulak is in the bottom pairing with Emberson just means that it hopefully becomes rocking chair hockey in our own zone. The next 4 games should be a good chance to see this all work out.
Time to fire up the old bandwagon!
It’s been idling in my driveway all season!
Skinner was great last night as was Pickard in his game. That is great if they can keep it up. Ekholm back this week will be great and hopefully Frederic maybe next week?
Nice to see Nuge grab a couple of points for sure, it would be great if that kick starts him.
LA seems to be coming on a bit winning 5 in a row. With 2 games in hand and only 1 point back , the Oil will have to get on a heater here at home. Vegas is floundering a bit as well and LA also has 2 in hand on them . It’s not out of the question that LA could win the Pacific.
The Oil need to start the week off with a big win tomorrow night. Ekholm will help for sure
I don’t think we have the finishing ability to keep burying skinner.
Good goalering game by the other Skinner.
Hard to watch Holloway break 50 points. He would look really good in our top 6
Agreed. What gets me is that it’s not like Jinner is so egregious defensively and the others aren’t. They are. This team needs to be far more dangerous then they have been, they need to bury their multiple chances, because no matter how much they own the puck they are pretty easy to get quality chances against
Bruce at CoH had Grade A chances at 16-10 NYR, and 5 Alarmers at 11-5 NYR. Stu won them that game because they didn’t put it away in the first period
I don’t know really what Knobby values, but I do know that I don’t like how they play these days. I don’t like how it looks, and they are far from as dominating as they should be. They should be creating far more trouble around the net, it should be all the time
It’s less a roster issue I think, they might be a little slower, it’s more that they play slowly and completely obviously. It’s not hard to play against a team like that, especially one that will give you a lot of good chances and the goalie might spot you one many games
I’m not trashing them, it’s just how I see them right now, or really this season. Stauffer had Brian Burke on pre game, his take on the Oilers issues was if your best players are playing their best, it’s pretty hard to lose. Meaning they haven’t been as we know. He also has no problem with Stu
They’ll run the goalies next season again, my main get is two centres. The D is good enough with Walman. I prefer speed and RS. Let go and move some wingers and use Savoie. I’m not sure Philp is going to cut it if he hasn’t jumped on this chance at his age. Might not have the temperament to be an NHL player. No 4C and they prefer Ryan over him and they think Ryan is done
The team doesn’t score enough and our tending has been putrid. Better tending and we win games but we still need to score more. Arvi has looked a bit better and maybe he will start to get going (until he gets hurt again) We need him to score and let Jinner play, free him, he derserves to play. It is frustrating to watch him play well then next game he will be on the 4th line again, imagine how he feels. He is a scorer and scorers need to get hot then the goals come in bunches, how can he do that going from pressbox 1 game, to 4th line, to 1st line for 3 shifts etc etc…
They prefer Kapanen over Philp. Knoblauch had them playing soundly last season.
I don’t think he’s coaching any differently. some of his players are having off seasons and also some of his players have been injured. I look forward to see how Frederic will impact the lineup and of course Evander Kane will be wanting to make his presence felt during the playoffs.
the perry goal was a good example of creating trouble around the net. Even though it was pp. That is getting and staying in the dirty areas. I think Frederic might help that out when he gets in. Nuge had a point blank opp in that area later on and he just will never score again it seems.