We talk about it in-season, and at the end of the year it’s good to look at just how much the minor league team can help the big club. From Charlie Huddy to Andy Moog to Mr. Kostin listed above, the organization has benefitted from a strong farm team over the years. During 2024-25, management has eschewed much of what Bakersfield has to offer, and it is the job of Stan Bowman to improve that situation.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 5-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 39-24-4, 82 points in 66 games
I have tonight as a win, with Winnipeg and Dallas being the evildoers during the home stand. Of course, if Edmonton plays the same Manhattan game we saw on the weekend, well hell’s bells March is going to be just lovely.
HEARTBEATS ACCELERATING
Mattias Ekholm’s return is imminent and it brings up the idea of running the veteran away from Evan Bouchard. On the Lowdown yesterday, Rachel Doerrie suggested finding out if Ekholm and Darnell Nurse could form a second ‘top pairing’ behind the clearly effective (in a small sample) Jake Walman-Bouchard duo. Ekholm-Bouchard have been paired for 66 minutes at five-on-five this year, delivering a 55 percent goal share (57 expected). It’s nice to have depth, this is the strongest group of Oilers blue since the late oughts.
Trent Frederic is also on track to return in the days to come, I wrote about him here.
THE STREETS OF BAKERSFIELD
There hasn’t been much from the Condors the coaching staff liked this season. Opening night roster size (22 players) included two goalies, six defensemen and 14 forwards. I’m going to count Matt Savoie’s appearance in the NHL as a recall, although he was in fact on the opening night roster. Here are the GP this year from Condors:
- Noah Philp 12, 0-2-2
- Josh Brown 8, 0-1-1
- Drake Caggiula 7, 0-1-1
- Matthew Savoie 4, 0-1-1
- Cam Dineen 1, 0-0-0
That isn’t many games, and really the only player to get something close to a full lash is Philp. I think management’s assessment of the minor-league roster showed some belief in the forwards; the offloading of several AHL defenders (Noel Hoefenmayer, Ben Gleason, Max Wanner) and the continued avoidance of a Phil Kemp recall speaks volumes.
For next season, I think it’s important for the team to have more AHL players on NHL contracts. During the Ken Holland era there was always a pile of guys who signed AHL-ECHL deals. It can work out (Vincent Desharnais, James Hamblin) but the better plan is to have scouts identify the very top end of the free-agent prospect pool and then sign a few of those guys.
This blog, at its heart, is about ‘playing along at home’ and watching teams being built. In the last decade, the Oilers haven’t been terribly interesting in this area. No one to blame, trying to win the Stanley Cup requires loading up every spring. That’s just good business.
However, Stan Bowman is in a unique situation. He is general manager of a team with a prospect pool that resembles a decade of deep runs and one or two Stanleys. In Edmonton, there is no pool and there is no Stanley. Hard nose the highway this spring, Mr. Bowman. Find the future.
The Lowdown will be live at noon today on Sports 1440. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will be around to talk about Stuart Skinner and the return of Mattias Ekholm. We’ll also talk baseball with Donovan Paulson and Declan Krueger will stump the panel with “Hi, my name is….” today. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
As part of their phone call today, Putin and Trump discussed a future hockey match between Teams USA and Russia.
I’m not sure Putin would be as magnanimous towards Canada in that regard but it does open the door for a possible fully-stocked Olympic tournament, which is a big damn deal.
Trump will do whatever Putin tells him to do.
lol please
Surprised to see Ekholm back already but am hoping this is a good sign and that he must be feeling really good to go. If he is still a bit off, I hope the team and him aren’t afraid to rest a bit more. That Walman trade turned out to be excellent insurance to cover Ekholm during this time.
Curious to see the deployment on the blue line. Walman and Bouchard were very intriguing, wouldn’t mind seeing that again down the line.
Morning skate per Stauff:
J.Skinner-McDavid-Hyman
Perry-Draisaitl-Brown
Podkolzin-RNH-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Kapanen
Jones-Ryan
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Emberson
Stecher-Klingberg
Pickard
S. Skinner
Now leave Skinner on 1 for a few games, well unless they really shite the bed. Poor Drai, love Perry though. I hope the viking is fully ready. Lets Go!
I’ve been posting quite a bit the last week about thinking that Nuge might be better these days as a 3C than a top 6 winger and, with him at 3C, it pushes Henrique to 4C which I like as neither Janny nor Kap are centers and those experiments have failed.
Spine the team and they look to be going with it tonight.
I think it looks alot better when Frederick and Kane are in the lineup but I like the thought process.
I would have left Arvy with Skinner and McDavid as it was the trio that have been dynamic in the smallest of samples (like a couple of shifts) but I’ll take this.
Interesting to go back to Pickard so soon – both are coming off strong games. I understand the “reward for Picks”.
I agree having Arvi up. BUT, who needs more support? RNH at center or 97/hyman, Drai…. RNH imo. RNH is not an ideal 3rd line center or center at all really.
The spine idea is good but as you said, you need the wings to help hold that spine together! So Frederic and Kane should help.
— I’ve been posting for years : glad your on board
— Nuge has made the most out his career by being the right player at the right time deserving to be given the right situation
— RNHv1.0 : got the most minutes on a lousy team playing C joined at hip with the two best players forming the Steve Austins because no one on the team better suited
— RNHv2.0 : 2 C way better than him arrive and he is joined at the hip recast as a winger because no one on the team better suited.
— RNHv3.0: ought to be this teams Guy Carbonneau : stud 3c scores some and plays full game. Because now there should be 4 wingers same or better than him.
I was silently hoping for this C deployment and cannot believe it might actually be a thing. If Kane and Frederic are the replacements for Drai’s wings and the 4th becomes Janmark-Henrique-Brown…amazing.
In years past we had referred to the 97-29-93 deployment as the “unicorn” form. What mythical creature is this 4-deep pivot roster??
C’MON JEFF PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD
Keep rotating until we lose. I believe the long playoff couple in the shortest offseason in our franchise history took a toll on a lot of our players and Skinner is one of them. I believe Skinner being the big man that he is has looked a bit worn down physically and mentally this year. The good part is the regular season means squat, I’ll take a fresh peak Skinner in a month from now.
Poor Drai, Brown has absolutely no business in the top 6
Hopefully this gets J. Skinner going. Desperately need a guy who can put the puck in the net put some pucks in the net
Skinner-McDavid-Hyman apparently?
Not what I would’ve gone with, but better than previous.
Honestly wanted to see how this line would perform when given more reps to gel together. Question is, how line will KK stick with it? My bet is 5min (sigh…)
agreed. lol
Yes.
I’d also like to see the coach acknowledge that Leon’s line is actually line #1 right now and stop stapling Brown/Podkolzin/Perry with him.
Yes Perry is having a great year for his role, but he can’t play enough minutes to be there. The others simply can’t score enough.
My take is Savoie came up at a bad time. When the team collectively is not playing at their best, putting him up on the top 6 and expecting him to help the team win is a tall order.
Hopefully they can get on a heater and put him back in the lineup before end of season. If he’s not a regular next year as part of their plan then that’s a failure
The kid got a taste he’ll be much more effective his second go around. If him and Leon can figure out the quick give and goes throw in a big skill forward with hands as in Frederic and Bob’s your Uncle.
I didn’t mind some of the bets that were made via free agency or trades: Jones, Kappenin Podzkolin, etc. They all have skill and pedigree and look good/great for short bursts. But they never seem to sustain it, which is why they aren’t with the teams that drafted them. Had Kostin stuck around, would he still be loved, or also be lumped in with the others who “needed a 2nd opinion”?
Klim Shady is an interesting player, but not interested in two way play. Since moving on he has been with the Wings and Sharks, and in two seasons has managed to get into 86 NHL games. On those teams. It’s too bad because he’s a neat cat and with that size speed and decent skill – which every team wants – he could have a nice contract
Having the wrong agent with a short term view probably cost the guy at least $10M over the course of his career.
I dunno man, he turned an 11 goal year into $6M over 3 years, and most teams (particularly the Oilers) aren’t in a hurry to give RFAs significant raises and multi-year deals…
— it’s kind of an interesting look back at the moves. Instead of the arvid jeff skinner stretcher brown Henrique etc : keeping more of the the brah holloway mcleod foegele
— Who knows but this team this year doesn’t seem as dynamic fast or quick as before. And again not being able to likely get more games at home as top seed is looking like a fail.
— ek and Walman last 12 months full value to be sure.
R MacLeod & D Holloway would be much more valued on the roster than J Skinner & V Arvidsson.
I was ok with McLeod Foegele because of two consecutive playoff stumbles. Holloway was a mistake for sure, Brah should have been dealt because it was clear he wanted out
Arvidsson was a good gamble because he is a player type they lack, but the NMC was boneheaded given there was risk in that he missed nearly a full season and isn’t a big scorer or something
In hindsight Sinner (heh heh gets punished for perceived wrong doings) is exactly the player type they don’t need more of. Big whiff, and JJ apparently hadn’t realized he wasn’t an agent anymore giving a NMC to a bought out player
I get Sekera vibes from Walman. In a good way.
I was thinking Lubo Visnovsky actually with their similar builds, skating and puck moving abilities. I do like your Sekera comp as well.
Walman is actually a quite a bit bigger dude
Yaro Spacek, come on down!
Seriously, if Walman can replicate that 06 playoff run…
Would be great
I was at both of the games in New York over the weekend. I felt more relieved than happy after the Islanders game, as it felt like the type of game a struggling team can’t find a way to win (dominating first period but getting goalied, taking frequent penalties, giving up the tying goal in the 3rd), but Draisaitl willed the team to victory.
The Rangers game was much stronger and several players had stronger games, but the Oilers are routinely finding themselves in tight games against teams hovering around the playoff line. 5-0 and 3-2 (OT) both count the same in the standings and winning in the NHL is hard, but man it would be nice to see the team’s depth scoring show up tonight and for the team to play a complete 60 minute game for a comfortable win (4-1, 5-2, etc.). The margin for victory is so narrow and without a strong game from Stu that game could have been tied going into the 3rd (or worse).
Also concerning – the Oilers continue to be 3-on-3 OT merchants, with 11/39 wins coming at 3-on-3 (~28%). That’s the highest among contenders by a wide margin, the next closest is Winnipeg (8/46, ~17%). Vegas, Dallas, Colorado, Florida, Carolina, and LA all have 5 or fewer 3-on-3 OT wins. That doesn’t bode well for the Oilers come playoff time, when they can’t just run out 97-29-2 until they put the game away.
Depth was always going to be this team’s issue, particularly after last summer’s moves, but hopefully the Rangers game is a sign of things to come.
Walman has been a great addition, I hope he can sustain through the rest of the season and can keep it up through the playoffs.
Great point. The Oilers have 26 or 27 regulation wins and the top teams in each conference have between 35-40. Definitely not a good arrow.
Yeah LA, Minnesota, NYR, and NJ all have more regulation wins than the Oilers, who have one more than Senators…
Is Skinner the starter against Utah? The other thing is I think once Edmonton get all their players together for the playoffs there’s plenty of depth except in the goaltending department.
Most playoff teams don’t head into the playoffs with three (let alone two) NHL-starter caliber goalies, and the quality of your starter is much more important than goaltending depth come playoff time. If you have a starter who has locked down the crease and never needs to be pulled for a game/spelled, who needs goalie depth (unless your starter gets Bergeron’d…)
The Oilers have/will have “depth” up front in the sense that they have multiple NHL caliber forwards who will be in the press box on any given night, but the issue is depth scoring not just having depth. Who cares if you have a bunch of 3rd and 4th liners who haven’t scored a goal in twenty games…
It the injury concern more than anything for me. I just wish there was more insurance after Pickard if Skinner goes down.
In a perfect world, yes, but if given the choice between a 5th round draft pick and a fringe-NHL level goalie in case of an injury to Skinner/Pickard, I’d choose to keep the draft pick
I haven’t been posting Power Win data I track because of this, no point. And it’s not great. As Nafa mentioned you can just look at Reg Wins and Losses and it tells the story. It is clear that they are not a dominant team this season. They have a skill/elite advantage over every other team, and that is their hope this time. At least until they fire on all cylinders
If you are one of the western conference wild card teams, which one of these teams would you most like to face in the 1st round: WPG, DAL, COL, LV, LA, EDM? If Edmonton is heading into the postseason playing at close to their current form, I have to think they’d be the “easiest” or second “easiest” draw out of those six teams. Hook, gold, maul 97/29 to slow them down at even strength, don’t let them score more than 2 PP goals in a game, and outscore win the non-97/29 minutes…
This year’s team prowess in overtime is eerily similar to the 07-08 team’s dominance in the shootout (14-4). Like that team, I don’t think the Oilers have played as well as their record suggests. Not to say they’re as bad as the 07-08 team, but just that that they don’t “feel” like a team that’s on pace to win 48 games …
I would pick the Oilers because although they can bring heat the others can’t, as you said there is also a clear plan that can beat them
They weren’t as dominant as folks are remembering last season either. Still had similar issues. The Canucks were close to taking them out, and it took historic special teams to get where they did. Never the easy way
Yeah, this too, the Oilers were far from dominant last post-season
Oilers are a veteran team, veteran teams don’t run around like teenage roosters finishing every check for 82 games. They had a short off season cut then some slack. Going back to the Philly series in 1980 we always turn it up a notch in the real season. Add in fuctionsl toughness with Kane-Frederic-Walman-Jones we become hard to play against. You might not have faith in this squad and think they are a easy out to get bounced in the first round but take I’ll take my team to beat anybody this playoff.
I think we’re past the point we can reasonably attribute the team’s poor form to a short offseason. Also not sure how the 80s teams pre-/post-season performance has any bearing on the current roster, most of whom weren’t even alive the last time the Oilers won a cup.
“Fuctionsl” toughness is great and all, but the issues with the roster probably won’t be solved by Kane/Frederic returning to the lineup, though I am sure they will help.
I wouldn’t say they’re an easy out, but I would not be shocked if LA beat them in a tight first round series. Historically, repeat losers in 1st round rematches eventually find a way to break through against a team that’s had their number, and Edmonton has (arguably) never looked more beatable from the Kings’ perspective.
Ryan Holt stating one of the players the team is without is Derek Ryan. I presume he’s joining the Oilers.
I would not put him in the lineup soon.
Official!
Whenever a rested Derek Ryan returns, he gives you a hell of a game.
He can’t hold up his performance but if you need a safe reliable center he’ll deliver for 3 games.
I would 100% not put Ekholm and Nurse together.
Ekholm has never been good on the right side (Nashville days) and doesn’t have the mobility for it.
Nurse could probably play his off side but he never has as a pro and why take him out of his natural position when he’s having a nice year and a solid 2LD?
Walman and Kulak are the left shot options to play the right, for me.
I agree about Nurse-Ekholm. Need a puck mover with mobility on that pairing. Earlier in the season they played Kulak-Nurse for a chunk of games and I thought Nurse looked good on the right side in that period as did Staples. Not certain why they went away from it.
The Leftorium returns …
How about that leftrightorium.
.
Utah is a fast team with some good going young talent and are in a heck of a battle for a playoff spot.
I expect the Oilers to produce another multi goal win. Impose their will.
It’s interesting how the Oilers have a difficult time with fast young talented teams.
Anaheim for example. The Hockey club will be a tough challenge.
Good test tonight. “Hockey Club” is young, fast, and close to a playoff spot. Hopefully the Oilers match their intensity!
Ekholm-Bouchard have been paired for 66 minutes at five-on-five this year?
Walman-Bouchard?
Have we had the “why isn’t Matt Savoie on the roster” conversation lately?
We have absolute black holes of offence right now in the forms of Janmark, Henrique, Brown, Podkolzin, Kapanen. Arvidsson is maybe finding his way out of the Belanger triangle, but can’t say he’s there yet. Nuge and Hyman are having massively down years, and Hyman is banged up.
We have Savoie on the farm. His calling card is offence, he didn’t look out of place when he got a cup of coffee here. We traded a useful middle 6 player for him, who if he was still around, would have been a top 6 staple this year.
What am I missing?
The Oilers don’t think he’s ready. He’s ready, but the club is going to ride the veterans despite some real speed issues and the fact Savoie’s NHL point in Edmonton involved securing the puck, sending it to Leon and then celebrating a goal.
I wish he was here. He is not. That’s on management and coaching. Coaches don’t trust rookies.
Man, but when you’re playing Kapanen on the 1st line, you’re already subscribing to the “needs must” way of thinking. I don’t think 10 games of spot duty is going to kill the kid, but I’m not an NHL exec.
Yes Kappanen on the 1st line is a cardinal sin. He adds that speed, but he seems to miss a lot of chances when they arise.
They got Kapanen for absolutely nothing off waivers. So what do you expect? He has however contributed up and down the lineup with his versatility.
Yes for sure he should be here. He actually had some chemistry with Leon. He was responsible defensively and is quick and so smart . This kid is going to be the perfect replacement for Nuge in that pp bumper position maybe even by some point next season, especially if Nuge struggles like this season.
Management and Coaching decisions get difficult when a team that is supposed to win a division and a Stanley Cup, and never lose more than 1 in a row go into a tailspin.
To me it has to be more than coaches and management continuing to make bad decisions, as they always have. (There was a decade there where management handed a set of rookies the keys to the car). Why don’t they trust this particular rookie at this particular time?
Management/coaching’s decision to prioritize shot suppression/low-event hockey is really placing a lot more of the offensive burden on 97-29 and I don’t think it’s sustainable. Both are up over 22 minutes a night almost every evening and are playing almost half of the third period. Rookies make mistakes but this team is lacking players who can get to/turn over pucks and put the damn thing in the back of the net, and banking on those two bailing you out and putting the game away every night is not a reasonable way to approach the game.
I hope it doesn’t take an early exit this spring to convince management/coaching to play the damn kid.
I wish Ryan MacLeod was still here because coaches don’t trust rookies and that is certainly on management.
same ole same ole with these types of decisions. FRUSTRATING and irritating. I have commented before, savioe needed some games and some rope to really get a shot to see if he is really ready. I have commented before but will again. Savioe needed some games and some rope to really get a shot to see if he is really ready. This is a vet team, they could house a talented rook for 15 games.
I agree that they have to get Savoie up and running. The Oilers are going to need all hands on deck this playoffs. We know who Kapanen and the rest of the “couldn’t score on a barn door” forwards are. We don’t need to see more of them before the playoffs.
Leafs moved on from both Kap and Kling because they got tired of their defensive lapses.
Choosing a player ‘known to have’ defensive lapses over a player you’re ‘worried could have’ defensive lapses seems odd.
To me, the optimal defence pairings are
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Walman
Kulak Emberson
Gives each pair a decent to plus puck mover to help the forwards on break outs. Ekholm and Bouchard are proven as one of the top pairs in the league. Don’t know why they’d mess with it at this point. Nurse and Walman have looked great so far, and Kulak/Emberson should be able to win against bottom comp
If Kulak goes playoff Kulak great, Reg season Kulak with Emb isn’t my cup of tea. They don’t control the net front well. I think both need a partner with size as both are shorter and lighter for NHL D (even for a F), and neither are plus puck movers or good at rushing up ice. They are decent but not great. This is taking into account a lot of teams bottom 6 are heavier and physical, a concept Oiler fans haven’t seen since MacT took them to Raleigh
But that is what I expect them to run
Not sure I’d consider 6’2” and 192lb small (which they both are). Bouch is 6’3” but weighs the same. Not every player can be a Nurse (6’4” 215lb) or Ekholm (6’5” 225lb).
They aren’t short but they are light. Bouch is taller which helps bcs reach, but he is also a top end skill player, and people don’t remember but while he isn’t a burner he was the fastest backward skater at his combine for D. Probably why he can gap well and is great at defending entries
Kulak at his best is effective, jury is out with Emb still (I thought he was a good analytic pick up), but together for me it’s not ideal. Lesser skilled D are better when hard to play against and neither are, even though Emb hits. It’s different when you get hit by a guy you outweigh by 10 (by league average weight for a F) 15 or 20 pounds which they both give up to a lot of players
The good thing is there’s more than one way to optimize the D pairs.
3 in a row sounds nice.
Be nice to see Frederic in the lineup for both Winnipeg and Dallas, but I haven’t heard if he is skating yet. Someone mentioned this week.
So if Ekholm plays with Nurse, does Nurse play the R side?
I would assume they run the same lineup tonight as last game , with possibly Jones out. I liked his game in the last one but he hardly played. He had one shift with McD and looked good on that shift. Not sure the coach is a fan of his game or trusts him yet.
LA lost last night so the Oilers need a big win tonight .
In 22-23 for Nashville, Ekholm struggled playing on the right side. He’s not a speed merchant and given this age and the fact that he’s coming back from a core injury, it would not make sense to put him on his right side. One man’s opinion.
The entire Pacific Division lost their last game (or two), except that is Edmonton. Somehow, against all reason, the Pacific is still in reach.
Maybe easing Ekholm back into the lineup alongside Emberson, which would let them limit his minutes could work. Then Nurse Bouchard, Kulak Walman would run in the top 4. Again, this is if they need to limit Ekholm as he returns. Otherwise I would do what you suggest.
Frederic is skating I heard. Knoblauch sucks at building the team because he doesn’t engage all of them. He is too conservative
It’s not all on him because some of these forwards are just not doing anything. Many are NHL tweeners – not big, not fast, no offense, no physicality. Sometimes not defensive either. But he also hasn’t been able to lead them to a better place
It reminds me of Lowe doing better when he had more restrictions. The team played better than after KK had a training camp and could fully implement what he wanted. If Maurice Evason or Hynes was the coach it would be somewhat different, at least in engagement
There is evidence that they are ramping up the physicality as they approach the playoffs. Can’t wait to see Freddy in Oiler silks.