That was a grand night for Oilers fans, and confirms the good things we observed in New York on the weekend. The Oilers are back, baby! A little worry about Leon Draisaitl aside, the good news from last night was almost endless. It was like a free bar at a rural wedding, in a big old Quonset, where you’re the only single man who likes to dance.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 6-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 40-24-4, 84 points in 68 games
March is now a rebound month from the nadir of February, no matter what happens from here. I didn’t see this result coming in this game, and am now looking forward to the Jets and Stars game in a way I did not at the beginning of the month. We’ll see, but March could vault this Oilers team into a real race for the Pacific.
THE NUMBERS
So many brilliant performances, led by the ‘Harlem Globetrotters’ goal from Connor McDavid. You see set pieces in soccer all the time, and every football play is a set piece, but in hockey fluidity makes the game a series of broken plays. Not so last night. Surely that goal ranks among the top even in the dizzying heights of McDavid’s career goals.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is making guys like me eat some humble pie these days, and I’m glad to do it. The Nuge is back! Wow! Don’t touch that line, Kris Knoblauch!
Zach Hyman looked like the Zach of old, Mattias Ekholm was ridiculous in a good way, I liked the Nurse-Walman pairing and entire game overall. Utah is a new team, not an expansion team. We need to keep that in mind. This rout wasn’t against the California Golden Seals.
A REQUEST
Folks, I’m going to consider shutting down the comments section. I don’t want to, but the political discussions that raise up daily are just too much. This is a hockey blog, not a political one. Please stop. I will monitor over the next few days, but am leaning toward ending the comments. That would be the end of a 25 year tradition, but we are not equipped for that kind of discussion and I will not be part of it.
The Lowdown hits at noon today, Sports 1440. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us, and we’ll chat about these Oilers and their amazing highs and lows. Declan Krueger will talk NCAA basketball and we’ll share your texts. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: How the Edmonton Oilers’ deployment versus elites offers some surprises
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6212371/2025/03/19/edmonton-oilers-elites-stats-2025/
LT – The Oilers have been 3-on-3 merchants this year, with 11/40 wins coming at 3-on-3 (~28%). That’s the highest among contenders by a wide margin, the next closest is Winnipeg (8/46, ~17%). Vegas, Dallas, Colorado, Florida, Carolina, and LA all have 5 or fewer 3-on-3 OT wins.
How concerned are you by the team’s reliance on 3-on-3? Presumably it doesn’t bode well for the Oilers come playoff time, when they can’t just run out 97-29-2 until they put the game away. Not as concerning as the 07-08 team’s reliance on the shootout, but I find it concerning the Oilers have far fewer regulation wins than a lot of other contenders…
I think that’s part of the reason for the Walman acquisition. We’ll have to wait and see if it makes a difference. If the older forwards can keep pace, good things will happen.
I like the Walman acquisition that he can play in the o-zone so the coaches can sit Klinberg
That was an experiment that didn’t work. Oilers were awful in those games. Not putting it all on Klingberg, but he did not look good.
I was hopeful about the Klingberg acquisition but it never did seem like a good bet to find a Top 4 D. Hope that the extra cap didn’t cost the Oilers at the deadline…
I think the Klingberg experiment was to see if he could take over the Bouch roll. I could be wrong but I feel there is some thought to trading Bouch and not spending the big bucks on him in the summer…if he takes off like last years playoffs (he always seems to be a second half and playoff guy), then it will be expensive and unpopular to trade him. Someone offer sheets him and it’s a no win situation for Management.
Of course, I can’t be certain but I don’t think the Klingberg test had a single iota to do with Bouchard’s future. Even in his prime Klingberg wasn’t even close to Bouch’s tier of impact.
I think management and coaching know full well how good Bouch is and how important he is to team success.
I’m not overly concerned about an offer sheet:
1) Is Bouch not going to file for arb if a deal isn’t done? He has a phenomenal arb case and, if he files, he can’t sign an offer sheet.
2) Would he really leave McDavid/Drai for a short term over pay? Lets not forget, while an offer sheet can be up to 7 years, for purposes of determining comp tier, the max term is 5 years. If there is a 7 year, $70MM deal, that’s $14MM for compensation tier purposes – four 1st round picks.
Who knows what Management was thinking but tell me this, it was reported we had a higher signing offer for Rantanen. He signed long term for 12M. Leon just signed for 14M and Mcdavid will most likely be 16M. Bouchard will most likely be 10M, Nurse is at 9.25M. Guessing the offer to Rantanen was 12.5 that would be: 61.75 Millon to 3 forwards and two defense. Oh yeah apparently we need to spend more than a couple million for goaltending as well. We also have long term NMC on Nuge, Hyman, Arvi and partial NTC on Kane. If they were going to spend that kind of $$ on another foward and looking to improve in net im guessing a huge long term contract on another D was going to be the sacrifice…we shall see.
More concerned with them playing most of the regular season not fully interested and not very physical. How do you turn up physicality in playoffs if you’ve been preserving yourself all season
WALMAN, JONES, KANE, FREDERIC; Consider it turned up. You can notice team hitting going up with just Jones added to lineup. When you have some speed and grit added to lineup you will notice the rest of the team responds that way as well. Hyman, Mcdavid, Nurse, Ekholm, Pods, Arvi, hits will all go up.
Just do it.
I think you answer your own question.
By the end of the run last year Oil had nothing left in the tank. I’m happy to see them stow it until it matters, or at least have that role fall on younger new guys trying to break in.
Rishaug (on last nights Got Yer Back podcast), who’s been pushing for more “physicality” all season, said Knoblauch gave him a handful of stats on the topic: the gist of which is… games when Oilers out-hit the opposition tend (by wide margin) to be losses; games when Oilers are out-hit by opposition tend (by very wide margin) to be wins. Fans love the excitement of hitting. But for this team (& arguably, given my cursory research on the topic, for most -not all- teams) hitting does not correlate with winning.
It was something like the Oilers have been outhit in 31 of 37 wins and, in the games they’ve outhit the opposition, they’ve lost like 11 of 12. This is apx, I can’t remember for certain but those numbers are close.
At the same time, I do think that “physicality” is more than stacking body checks up. It includes open ice puck battles, getting the puck to the front of the net, etc.
I agree on what “physicality” may mean. I think hits is a poor metric for it.
— yeah : if the conclusion from those figures is that hitting is bad because they win less when they hit more, well that’s just a flawed over generalization.
— effective hitting + physicality matter a lot
— Hitting doesn’t correlate to winning by that measure because when you have the puck more your hitting less and winning more.
— when your opponent has the puck more one way to get it back is hitting
— back the truck up that puck possession vs hitting have a strong reverse correlation
— Hitting is moar good. However more hits doesn’t mean more wins.
I’m with you. Thanks.
My point is that “hits,” as measured, do not positively correlate to wins. “Hits,” as measured, do however relate directly to fans’ impressions that “good work” is being done.
LT – what do you want us to do with political comments, besides just not engaging with them. Downvote, or just ignore altogether?
I think the gist is that if there are political comments there won’t be a comments section to do any of that in
I’m just asking IF we see them, if he wants us to just ignore or downvote so he can identify/delete them
Easy solution.Bring up a forbidden topic and 1 yr timeout. Problem solved pretty quick.
If someone does that I am going to crazy glue my fingers together and ignore. No reaction is the best, even a downvote could prompt more from that person. Too risky! What the heck would we all do??
— Just don’t do anything “nasty”…
Saw an interesteing list of the Hoby Baker top ten candidates named for this year. Three of them were never drafted and the goalie, in particular, looks interesting.
The three are:
D Mac gadowski from Army. 23, shoots left 6-3 185. 23/24 played 28 games went 4-19-23 and -1. This season went 38 GP and 16-26-42 and +5.
F Liam McLinskey from Holy Cross. 24, shoots R 6-3 165(?). last season went 39 GP 19-28-47 and +23. This year went 39 GP 23-28-51 and +8
G Alex Tracy from Minnesota State. 23 catches L 6-0 and 187. last year went 28 GP with a 2.50 GAA and .910 save%. This year went 28 GP and rocked a 1.41 GAA and .946 save%!!!
Any thoughts? Could be a couple of sneaky signings…?
Been working so have not paid attention have just gone back through the video for scoring plays.
A puck comes off the back-wall, Savoie swats at in in mid-air on the backhand to cut a 2-0 deficit to 2-1. This goal has been changed to Hamblin and an assist to Savoie – maybe it went off James – not going to rewind again.
Connor Carick skates in to the slot and rips once to turn a 3-1 deficit to 3-2.
Savoie on the forecheck on the PP causes a terrible turnover in to the slot and Hamblin buries it for cut a 4-2 deficit to 4-3.
Philp hits the cross bar on the next shift.
Condors going on the PP down one with 1:18 left in the 3rd.
Condors pressure on the 6 on 4 for most of the last 80 seconds.
Savoie sets up Carrick in the slot beautifully with 30 seconds left but the save is made.
Savoie gets set up for a one-timer with 10 to go but a nice toe save.
No win tonight.
Rodrigue gives the puck away behind his net and Colorado takes a 1-0 lead early.
Sorry for all the grief you are going through in regards to the comment section Mr Lowetide.
Maybe limiting the total number of posts per day for everyone would raise the quality a bit? If one was limited to say 10 posts the problem would be limited somewhat. IP limiting would be even better for the multi accounters.
I also wonder if using the thumbs up/down ratings could be used to extend (or reduce) the limit so if someone was being particularly bad they’d be limited to 1 post per day.
its too bad that a few troublemakers keep us from having nice things, this was one of the few politics free boards I’ve followed for so long.
Despite the teams recent issues I’ve always kept this thought that McDavid has no interest in the regular season, past the point of getting into the playoffs in a reasonable position.
It explains his apparent lack of concentration. It even explains the sometimes lack of focus from the rest of the team while he conserves his energy for the playoffs. McDavid is a monster at analyzing his failures and game 7 was a big one. He won’t rest until he atones for it; preferably this year.
If he comes flying out the the gate come playoff time I will be vindicated. Until then…it’s just another left field theory.
I agree, and would add that to my eye he dialed himself back even more when he was suspended for doing the job the referees wouldn’t do during the final minute in Vancouver. Before the 4 Nations thing started he was just going through the motions, and after the 4N ended he dialed it back again.
But the post-season is finally in sight and he is dialing it up.
The NHL sure takes its star players for granted. If they add two more games to the regular season schedule, expect more star-players-not-engaged hockey during the regular season.
A conscious effort to do what needs to be done to ensure he (and the team) go in to the playoffs as healthy and “fresh” as possible is one thing.
A “lack of interest” is another that I can’t get on board with.
I believe its the former.
Has there been any news period about Frederic even skating, or as well on Kane skating
From accounts Frederick was supposed to start skating last week or this week (can’t remember). Most recent timeline was near month’s end.
No idea what is actually happening.
LT: a suggestion would be to not allow new members to join and ban the ones causing issues.
That way a ban doesn’t have a workaround and subsequently those that join the participate would be quickly whittled down to those that respect this discussion as a privilege and not a right.
Problem would be a shrinking comment base over time as people age out or otherwise move on. Nothing wrong with new blood but good behavior is paramount. I wonder whether a tiered comment section – basically TWO comment boards in parralel.A kid’s table and a grown ups table so to speak, would be workable. New commenters are on the “kid’s table” for the season and reviewed during offseason for possible invites to the big table. WOuld need a certain volme of posts and a record of adult behavior to earn an invite to the A team… really bad/ immature posters could be culled in the offsseason as well from the B list board. Make them EARN the right to join the big discussion… any thoughts on that?
One way to transition the current commentator base might be to initially put everyone on the A list, and three strikes and your on the B list for the season. Continued bad behavior on the B list gets you and your IP blocked?
Honestly, I don’t know if parralel comment boards like this is even possible with the sevice provider. It strikes me as an interesting concept for debate though! Always looking to learn, if anyone with web design/blog experience has input as to the functional feasibility of such a thing, I am dying to know – just for my own education! They would have to have seperate ability to block users, I would think, to be effective.
Knob says one or more of McDavid, Hyman, Draisaitl, or Ekholm may not play tomorrow.
Doubt
If Ek has to sit again they need better medicos. Why would he even play if there was any doubt? At his age be extra cautious, he’s too important to mess around just before the real season starts, and they were winning
Totally. Same goes for Draisaitl. Shortly after he got injured, the Oilers got a power play and he played the entire 2 minutes. Then down the stretch of a 7-1 game they are double shifting him to try to get him 50 and/or extend his point streak? If he misses tomorrows game after that you really have to question WTF they are doing.
Is it possible that Drai was pushing to play, and saying he feels fine?
The Avs got Toews at 27 and he’s been a home run. FLA got Forsling at 24, he’s been a home run. We got Walman at 29, probably a little old to be a homerun, maybe a triple? We hope and wait.
If they keep Bouch, their core is locked up. The key will be for Bowman to find cheaper good pros like Walman with some term or get them signed at affordable contracts – hopefully Frederic – and keep them coming as they age or price themselves out. If it’s price then he also need to trade those players for needs, not let them walk, because contending can deplete assets. Give nothing away and build outside of the draft wherever possible
Just keep putting runners on bases.
The Blues got Broberg at 23.
Walman is better than Broberg at a cheaper prize tag.
No McDavid, Drai, Hyman or Ekholm at practice today.
I am in favor of those guys basically not practicing at all for the rest of the season – maybe one here or there.
Maintenance days for all but a couple will be game time decisions.
Any word on Kane’s recovery. Are we expecting him back for playoffs?
The only thing worse than suggesting Kane can contribute to a Stanley Cup contender after missing an entire year is suggesting Noah Philp is some sort of answer to the 4th line this year.
No one is suggesting that. The only thing I ever suggested was when he had his surgery that I’d be shocked if he made it back for the regular season when some were thinking he may be back by February.
But the question was is he gonna even try to come back this season or give himself the offseason?
Either he’s done or he’s going to go balls-out looking for that last contract.
There was a lot of talk prior to the game about Jeff Skinner getting an opportunity to play with Connor. Personally I didn’t see a lot of positives (extremely small sample size) in the move… if I read the stats correctly he had but 2 shots on net, not a great contributor to offence. Did I miss something, was he good defensively at least? He’s been showing better in recent games, but . . .
With Nuge excelling at Center there’s now a vacant spot at 1LW (and 2LW).
Skinner needs a role. I like keeping him with 97 for the rest of the month to see if there’s iterative improvement in their chemistry.
Assess it until Frederic is ready to go.
That makes sense, he does need a role, and Connor can certainly provide that simply by finding him and getting the puck to him… then it’s up to Jeff to finish. He’s known to be an elite shooter, the time is now to show up, considering he’s now playing with royalty.
The first line was generating chances constantly after being a dead zone for much of the calendar year. They were excellent.
Did you not read the blog post/see the numbers above? 11-7 shot share, 78% expected goals …
I watched the game and don’t recall seeing him good. I’m certainly not arguing the above numbers you refer to, but those numbers don’t tell the whole story in Jeff’s case… or maybe they do. No Assists. No goals. 2 shots on goal. He may have been involved in maintaining possession, but I want to see offence from him, shots, deflections, anything.
The Cult of Hockey gave him a grade of 7 on the night. They viewed that he contributed to 5 scoring chances. He got no points, but he was in the sequence on both 5 on 5 goals the line got in the game.
On Hyman’s second goal, he recovered the dump in around the boards, made a nice deke then backhand pass to a charging McDavid, who passed back to a charging Ekholm, who fired it in off of Hyman in front all with in 5 seconds. He was the unacknowledged ‘3rd assist’. Not always meaningful, but in this case, without Skinner’s clean handling of the puck then a tape to tape pass to McDavid, that goal doesn’t happen.
On Ekholm’s goal, Bouchard entered the zone, buttoned hooked then passed to Skinner coming in with speed and he got away a good shot from 23 feet. Skinner hassled the defenseman who played the rebound, so the puck got dumped in the corner, where Hyman was able to win back the puck and set up Ekholm for the goal. On the shot, Skinner was moving into the slot to screen helping distract the goalie. And while it was the 6th goal and some might not think important, the Oilers just 10 days before saw a 5-1 3rd period lead narrow to 5-4 with 10 minutes still left in the game.
There were other good plays he made in the game helping the line sustain pressure. Again no points, but the coaches will notice his meaningful contributions to goals.
Cheers, that’s the kind of detailed reply/answer I appreciate. Although I did watch the game, I may not always be paying enough attention to details that lead up to a goal… I was actually curious if he was entitled to claim unrecorded 3rd assists, you answered that for me. If he can sustain this “better” level of play, the points and goals will come… hope coach sticks with the elevation for a bunch of games to prepare him for the playoffs.
Thanx again.
I think you did miss something.
I felt like Skinner was all over the offence and contributed big time to the line.
3rd assist on the Hyman goal (from winning a battle).
Lots of good from Jeff Skinner last night, for me.
Last night was the first I saw Skinner show any emotion!!! It was great to see!!!!!
I would keep rotating the Goalies until Pickard loses.
He’s been very very good lately. I would split starts as well
I think we need both goalies in game ready shape for the playoffs – so more even split of starts, so they don’t get rusty and not so many starts that they get fatigued … so I concur!!
Vasily Podkolzin is such a great get by management.
For 1 million the Oilers are getting the production from him that will cost 2x + from others.
22 even strength points, team leader in hits by 30+! 2nd for forwards in block shots, very responsible in his own end, never pouting.
If he can get that shooting% to spike just a bit the Oilers have themselves a dominate power forward.
I hope management continue to swing the bat on as many of these cheap contract player types as possible giving themselves more money to spend on the puck skill.
I like Podkolzin and think he’s had a fine season, but he didn’t just cost $1M, the oilers had to give up a 4th round pick to get him as well …
Are you implying that wasn’t a solid solid deal by Bowman?
I posted about this the other day,
Since 2019 there have been, I think it was, 2 players from the 4th rough that have put up more points in a season than Podz has this season. A 4th round pick is basically garbage when compared to bringing in Podz.
Not as big a get as Holloway has been a loss.
Signed through next year at that nominal cap hit too.
Walman with back to back games with 6 blocks. Just a solid top 4 d-man. Does everything above average, good to great in so many different aspects of the game.
I can’t say enough how much I love this acquisition. I would like to see Walman QB PP-2 we may need a different look on certain occasions during our playoff run. Don’t get me wrong I’m all for signing Bouchard but we need to see what Walman has as he looked with the ball in San-Jose. Like I posted with you before Bouchard value may go through the room if he has another special playoff and may possibly be cashed in for the betterment of the team now and in the future.
I was a bit surprised that it was Ek and Nurse again last night.
I mean, Walman has PP experience/pedigree and he might be the best option for PP2 (and further reducing Ekholm’s workload – not that there is much on the PP).
Six goal lead in the third and he was still throwing himself in front of pucks. Just solid.
People compared Hall to Messier, and thought he could maybe make the shift from LW to C and lead to a cup just like in ’84. Perhaps the Nuge is actually the one to shift (back) to the middle that will lead us to glory!
yeah I don’t care to discuss politics here either, however, for the most part there are some astute observers/commentators I’d miss
— I remember hearing Trick Avenue for the first time as a kid in Yellowknife. My best buddy Chris Moody had an older sister who I was so infatuated with. She was that cool older blonde wise beyond her years maybe 15 when I was 12.
— At their house one day and she was playing it. Asked us if we knew who Eddie Grant was. Of course I had no clue but I told her I loved him in an attempt to curry favour.
— So I sat in her room totally in awe of the sister dance moves and the song just blew me away.
— Still think of her when I hear that song.
— Thanks for the memory LT
— As an aside : managing money has been tough in this environment: GLD and some non correlated alts has really helped though …
Eddie Grant music getting played in Yellowknife. You can’t make this up. This is what makes music so awesome and magical.
Really hope you don’t shut down the comments, LT. Part of what makes this place special is the community and the smart discussion and exchange of ideas, in addition to your brilliant writing.
Would hate to see a small percentage ruin that!
— yeah – what are people thinking …
Hear, hear! If your wirting is an insane and otherworldly ice cream sundae, the erudite and poignant comments are the cherry on top… and the sprinkles! Be a shame to lose either, together they are magic.
I really enjoyed the Nurse fight. Nurse made this great twist right at the end of the fight before getting a couple of hammer blows in – to make a point.
Nurse is one of the best fighters in the NHL. For someone that plays as much as he does, he can go with anyone and has.
I love how he let’s the other guy think he’s winning and then just takes control. His reach combined with his strength are what make him so dangerous.
As I was trying to explain to someone watching, Nurse’s head was screwed up by that 9 million contract. It left him thinking he was too valuable to be fighting, or even playing particularly mean.
Nice to see him recovering from this flawed mentality.
I think Utah got ill watching their player getting thumped like that. They looked like they were practically shaking last night.
I was in Calgary in 2015 and was given some great tickets for an Oil Flames game, row 4 and near the penalty boxes. Nurse squared off with a very big Flame, can’t remember his name, but I think he was enforcer type player. When the fight started the Flames fans were laughing at Nurse’s chances. Nurse was dominant and I remember the Flames player bleeding a lot. I think it was also the first breakout game McDavid had. Good memories from that game.
The Oilers were on a terrible stretch, but it’s nice to look around the league and see they are not the only ones who this happens to.
Weren’t the Knights like 7 or 8 points ahead of the Oilers a few seperate times this season and are now 2 points ahead?
Seems like only Winnipeg and the Capitals have been the most consistent and I would be surprised if either of them made a deep run in the playoffs.
Number 1 and 5 in the league sv percentage for their respective starting goalies.
Something sometime mostly goalie
What exactly happened to Leon last night?
He got caught up with another HC player at his blue line and looked like he twisted his ankle. He was working that leg with the trainer afterwards but played the rest of the game. It looked serious, and likely should have been rested, but he wanted his 50th goal.
Thanks I didn’t see the game. We all know about high ankle sprains and how they can be a nightmare. I really think it’s time to start spreading the minutes around. I would like to see certain players get a push and that includes a PP 2. I would also try to play the 6-D equal minutes as well as giving each one a game or two rest.
A few takeaways from last night.
Yeah the prestige was Classic McJesus, but there was a huge skill level from all involved in the goal.
Not sure if there are any baseball fans on the blog, but I’m going to the Mets home opener in a few weeks and they’re playing the Blue Jays – my first opening day in New York (went to one in Toronto awhile back). Baseball in New York is such an awesome experience. I went to a Mets/Yankees game on the 25th anniversary of 9/11 and that was such an awesome experience.
The BJs front office the last few years, and my lack of any emotional connection to the city of Toronto, has made me switch my allegiance for the first time in any sport. I’ll always pull for them because Canada, but I’m officially a Mets fan. A Mets/BJs world series would be a dream matchup for me.
I head down for the Blue Jays ‘home’ games in Seattle every couple of years. What a great atmosphere with the majority of the fans being Canadian. This year it is May 9 – 11 and I am hoping my fellow Canadians still make the trip.
I’ve always wanted to do this – I visited a friend in Seattle for a non-BJs Mariners game and really enjoyed the ballpark, it’s underrated and has pretty good food options.
Best food options I’ve seen anywhere.
Went to a Yankees/Red Sox game in NYC awhile back. Sox pitcher (Jon Lester I think) got drilled in the knee and crumpled to a heap. Fans instantly stood up applauded. First time I’ve seen an injury get a standing O. Security seemed to be booting Sox fans throughout the game just for fun. Quite the atmosphere.
I still haven’t seen a Yankees/Bo Sox game, but if both teams are good this year (looks like they will be), I’d love to go see one.
It is really worth it. Great atmosphere and as far as food options, the trucks outside are fantastic. You have to walk through a gauntlet of them if you are coming from downtown.
Yeah I’ve been to a couple of Mariners games, just not any where they’re playing the BJs 🙂
Ya. It’s been very frustrating watching the ineptitude of the mngt team over the last few years.
I love the reference to the one single man who loves to dance! Indeed. As a man who loves to dance, every party I went to as a single man was like this game for the Oilers: an opportunity to experience the very joy of life.
As for your moderator’s warning: hear hear! Let this be about hockey & the Oilers. I learn so much from so many commentators that I would miss your contributions very much. And, having moderated many, many groups & organizations in my time, I applaud your clear (& yet relaxed) way with this blog. Thank you.
Very bizarre defending from Utah last night. They allowed something like 8-9 odd man rushes/breakaways and the decision to have one guy shadow Leon on the penalty kill was quite ineffective (also hilarious to watch).
I think they got down early and started pressing for offense, leading to a lot of rush chances the other direction.
Given how lethal Leon is on the PP from his office, I can’t fault Utah for at least trying it out. But that PP, when it’s clicking, is almost impossible to stop, and it really forces the PKers to pick who/what kind of high danger chance they want to give up.
To be fair, it was not long ago that Leon was the only Oiler getting anything done at all. So it would have been a pretty successful strategy up until a week ago.. maybe less!
Oui
So nice to see them all rolling at the same time. They are a load when players play at the top end of their games. I am concerned about the depth at C, hopefully Nuge Henri and maybe Ryan play out of their minds
Finally a Nuge line that can score. Keep it together. All three of these players have been struggling. The old “put the struggling guys together and let them figure it out” move.
It makes sense based on their skillsets. Nuge – sublime passer, great stick, and defensively conscious. Podz – excellent at puck retrieval, good skater, physical, and also very good in his own end. Arvidsson – good enough skater, good trigger man, can afford to cheat a bit for offence since his linemates will be in good position if the puck comes back the other way.
Music!
It leaves Draisaitl with the junkiest wingers again.
Corey Perry has his flaws but he’s 5th on the team in goals, so not exactly garbage.
Agreed that Brown is not someone you want playing on his line but there’s a decent chance one of Frederic/Kane can push him down to the 4th line when they are back and healthy
53-97-18
91/Frederic-29-90
92-93-33
13-19-28
Not exactly giving Draisaitl his own Kurri and Anderson, but it’s better than Janmark and Brown 😀
Regardless of how Perry has contributed during the regular season, the playoffs is a different animal. Wouldn’t 91-29-21 be something to behold if 91 is up to speed?
This gets better when Frederick is ready to play and potentially even better when Kane is ready in the playoffs.
LT thanks for the great work. I don’t comment much really, a little more lately. The comments are very informative, lots of smart people. Hopefully politics will not end this part of the blog, this could be a safe place away from that exhaustion.
I realized I’ve been spending too much time on the rest of the internet. Just recently made this my main homepage, because this blog feels like an oasis of sanity that, unlike the rest of the internet, is usually an entertaining read that just feels like a nice mental break. If the oilers can get on a roll down the stretch, it will be even better!
Crazy stat from the Cult.
They analyze contributions to scoring chances and goals and mistakes to scoring chances and goals against.
As expected given the nature of the position, all d-men are negative except Nurse who is plus 10.
WOW!
I can’t recall if this was scoring chances or goals. Maybe it Bruce sees this.
I believe their focus is on tracking what they consider Grade A and 5-Alarm Scoring Chances, not goals. Trust Bruce will chime in soon.
We examine all such shots as you mention, but we have a special code for goals thatballows us to pull them out of the larger data pile.
Initially, we analyzed only goals before expanding the project a decade or so ago.
What your team does on GAS and your “player grades” postgame articles – so helpful. I like how you put the human mind to work in your analytics, it’s not just math or machines.
Ps. I hope you’re training a cadre of younger eyes & minds as your legacy.
this number, mentioned by Staples in our podcast last night, is based on direct contributions to goals plus/minus.
The contributions before the two primary assists that are awarded to the actual goal that is scored, as well as the goals scored against. Wow . That takes a lot of analysis.
Cult does yeoman’s work with their analysis and its a massively under-rated and under-used data set in the Oilers’ community.
Thank you Bruce.
What a season for Darnell!
Really, on Drai, Nurse and Perry have exceeded season expectations. Maybe Kulak.
1) I commented last night it was high-time for a 4+ goal laugher of a win, and the Oilers delivered. Great game from almost everyone up and down the lineup. I like the lineup configuration for the most part last night, but KK has to find better options for 29 than Connor Brown. Hopefully he doesn’t tinker with the lineup too much after a win like that …
2) I thought 92-93-33 had a strong game by the eye test even without the goals, and the numbers above confirm that. I’d like to see that line stay the same.
3) If KK can stomach the growing pains of a rookie, the ideal deployment until Frederic/Kane are back (in my opinion) would be:
53-97-18
90-29-22
92-93-33
13-19-28
Three scoring lines, and a checking/low-event line with good chem and some solid PKers? Sign me up!
Savoie likely isn’t coming back until he’s a black ace for the postseason, but putting Frederic or Kane on 29’s LW and moving Perry to RW would look pretty good as well …
4) Ekholm and Nuge seem to be returning to their previous form. I think 93 has found a home as the 3C on a line that can outscore at 5v5 against middling competition without letting many chances go back the other way.
5) On the McDavid blurb at the top: The first time I saw McDavid live was the 2015 Oilers prospects/U of A game, which I remember they had to move to Rexall (typically it would be at Clare Drake arena) because of the interest. I remember being amazed at just how fast McDavid was, but telling myself “don’t get too excited, it’s only a prospect/CIS game”. I didn’t trust my gut, which told me I was looking at a superstar at 18 years old.
I like those line combos too, but Savoie is not up here until next season or as a black ace at the playoffs. I disagree, but the coach has shown us his preference.
I was also at the 2015 Coliseum thing with McDavid, and what stood out to me then was when someone else tried to upstage him, and the very next faceoff he set his jaw and did an amazing move to score. I was stunned at the time and hoped that was going to be as good as advertised, but that he for sure was going to make people work to stop him.
Yep agreed that’s what i said. Hopefully Frederic/Kane seizes the opportunity on his or McDavid’s wing, and Jeff Skinner plays well enough to stick in the top 6.
It might be a crowded top six.
I like your combos and agree about Savoie, I stated that (or was I pleading with management!?) somewhere here about putting Savoie there and giving him the rest of the season. As Bar_Qu stated as well, he isn’t coming up. Too many vets, even if they do skate it to the corner a lot. The experience the kid would gain for next season would only make him better.
I like Frederic with Drai. Frederic has a past history of at least some goal scoring and with a passer like Drai, he may well go on a heater. Fred, Drai, Perry might be a load.
My biggest concern with pairing Frederic with Draisaitl is he’s never played a lot/particularly well against elites, which he’ll see most of the time if he’s paired with either 97 or 29. I don’t think he’s ever really played with a good passer like Draisaitl, his most common centers in Boston were Geekie and Coyle, and he’s spent most of his TOI against mid/low tier opposition.
He’s certainly never had a linemate like Draisaitl and it’s worth a look for sure, but there’s still a chance he’s overmatched in that role. Ideally you’d like another bonafide top 6 winger to play alongside a Draisaitl, but if anyone can elevate a linemate, it’s Leon …
It is starting to look like this team was missing the stability that Ekholm brought to the D pairings. No one on the back end was playing higher than they should, and even Emberson got a night off to rest.
I also wonder how much of the recent lull was due to the vets going “let’s not get too worked up over regular season results” and playing less than intense prior to needing to sort things out. If they can keep this intensity, tempo and balanced scoring going into the playoffs, I will feel much better about their chances.
Also, I must tune out really early to miss all the political discussions. I agree with LT, this is a weird place to bring that energy. Isn’t that why we have X?
Agreed, like getting a middle-of-the-order bat back in your lineup. Pushes every one else down a spot, lengthens the lineup, and lets players thrive in an appropriate role rather than putting players in a position they’re not well equipped for.
If only the Blue Jays front office felt the same way!
I’ve made literally thousands of comments on this blog since discovering it in 2007. Pretty sure exactly zero of them were about political matters. Which is not to say I don’t have views & opinions in that sphere, just that this is not the place for them. Let’s keep the focus on hockey or the related matters of other sports, music, movies, drink, Saskatchewan, etc.
More to the point, the man who provides us with this wonderful free content on a daily basis has repeatedly asked that we not abuse his comments section. I feel strongly that we collectively owe him that respect.
Hear hear!
!00% agree Bruce.
Also lovely to see both Canucks and Flames oh so close to the playoffs while simultaneously avoiding the top 5 draft picks that oftentimes spell the difference between contender teams and also rans.
Keep up the good work!
Poor Canucks. I’ve tried a couple of times to be a fan since they came into the league (I live on Vancouver Island, my kids are in Vancouver, the only live games I’ve watched are Canucks games, I have good friends who are Canucks fans etc). But it never sticks. They are -generally- just too boring to watch. This year has been dismal for them & their fans. And yes, again, they’ll be just good enough to miss out on high draft picks… Poor Canucks.
The only time I remember seeing them with a good team they flopped and dove like such assholes from hell that I was cheering for Boston to drop them in the finals.
Your prayers were answered. And that team hasn’t recovered. Maybe stop the praying now?
As someone who has been along for the ride since essentially the beginning Al, it would be a shame to shut down the comments. It’s what I have loved (alongside your blog content) about this blog. Smart discussion. Some of the best analytics minds in hockey today were early Lowetide blog posters. it was, and hopefully will continue to be, a great spot for the intelligent hockey community to discuss the Oilers.
Don’t ruin the spirit of this blog everyone. Go somewhere else to spew hate or anger to anything outside of hockey. We can discuss line combo’s, PP adjustments, odd coaching and management decisions to our heart’s content here. Take the rest elsewhere.
Thanks Al, appreciate all you do and have done for our Oilers hockey world.
Agreed. Even for benign political discussions, take it somewhere else. This is a hockey/Oilers blog, I’m sure folks can find plenty of places to talk politics elsewhere.
Downvote + do not respond to or engage with all political comments, regardless of what perspective/position they represent
*applause*
*standing on table and cheering*
Nice to see Oilers finally destroy some up and coming team that’s getting overhyped in it’s Lowe+MacT era style come from behind to ultimately flop playoff drive.
I was very happy that I got to eat my own words from yesterday about NUGE not being an ideal 3rd line center or center anymore. At least for last night he looked the part, he is waking up it seems. I enjoyed being incorrect there.
A couple lines at least looked good out there. Let us see what the coach does here.
I also feel bad for Drai, I get he is a beast and Brown gets chances but… he needs better wingers. Perry sure in spot duty or Perry with a more talented finisher (bring up savoie and give him a shot for the rest of the games) Brown can slot lower where he belongs.
Nice to see the team putting the honey down and coming out of hibernation it seems.
It’s pretty clear his days as a top 6 option might be done, but he is so, so good as a 3C on a line with wingers who can wheel. 92 and 33 are a pretty good complimentary fit for his skillset, and if that line can score enough, they should be a pretty decent outscoring line against mid competition, and any line with 92 and 93 is not going to let a lot of high danger chances come back the other way, even if 33 is on his butt a few times per shift
definitely, good wingers who fit really, really helps. He is a fine player.
I wish they had tried the template of RNH at center earlier in the year. Feels like it gives us the ability to really come in waves at the opposition. Our bottom 6 have been asleep offensively, which turned us into a two line (realistically two player) team for many games this season. Hope KK stays with this deployment of centers, because I think it’s what they need for a deep playoff run
Agreed, but better late than never, and last night’s result is (hopefully) enough to convince KK to keep that 3L intact.
Being able to roll out 3 lines, one after another, who can dominate possession while generating quality scoring chances at a consistent rate can be suffocating for the opposition.
It was great Nuge had a corker, but it was one good game against a weak team. Let’s see a run of it
He’s had a couple of strong games recently, but agreed that sustaining this form is going to be crucial.
It will be interesting to see 93’s deployment against Winnipeg/Dallas, and, if he’s centering the 3rd line, if they can hold their own/provide some quality non-McDrai minutes. Pretty good test for this lineup (if it holds)
I think with the right wingers he can hang at 3C, but he can get overwhelmed there, and has. We’ll see, and of course KK said he’d stay with this but…
Hang on. Aren’t Utah in the running to get a wild card spot? Does that make them a weak team? Sharks, or Hawks maybe more what I’d call “weak”.
Before last night’s game Utah had a better “previous 10-games” than Oilers. They had an off night. It happens.
They aren’t a bad team, but also not a strong team to me at least yet
Nuge had a series of strong games centering Janmark and Brown earlier in the season – the line was impactful for a couple/handful of games.
For sure, and then would run into trouble
Coach confirmed Leon getting 5 min more ice than any other forward was about the streak.
We knew that but it’s interesting that the coach confirmed it.
For me, I question it due to missing an opportunity for him to have a light night. I’m not concerned about it as it relates to injury. I can’t imagine they take ANY risk of it was ANYTHING of concern or could get worse.
No idea whether this is true or not, but it sure seems silly to risk injury to one of the NHL’s greatest players over some relatively lame point streak.
Cannot imagine Scotty Bowman would have put up with this.
It reminds me of Dan Kepley of old Eskimo lore, they had to hide his helmet to keep him off the field for his own good.
Scotty Bowman coached in a time when what players thought of coaches was of no importance whatsoever. That is not where we are now.
Now it is important for coaches to understand what players think of them.
Leon probably doesn’t care at all but I would bet it is important for the coach to show guys on the team that he thinks of them as people and not just as chess pieces.
If that makes sense.
There was this soccer coach in England named Brian Clough. He might have been the smartest soccer coach who ever lived, as he took what was in effect a 2nd division team and won the European Cup twice with them. I have no doubt he considered his players to be human beings – because that probably was his secret – understanding what was best for them.
Still, if Draisaitl wants to play hurt a little he’s probably earned the right to do so. It’s easy for the fans to criticize.
Premise of the post above being whatever tweak or bang he had/has was not at risk of aggravation by playing.
He looked OK to me. But what do I know?
No doubt the biggest takeaway for me was Mattias Ekholm looking like prime Ekholm.
McDavid is in his way back. Nuge is back. Bouch is back. Arvidsson looks back. Tending has been good for 3 straight.
THIS was always the key. The underperforming players getting back to near historical norms. No external acquisition was going to matter if the incumbents didn’t find their game.
It’s coming!!!!
Ekholm looked healthy!! He was hurting for quite a while.
For me I can’t wait to see Frederic and Kane. I temper my expectations with Kane but I still think he will be effective.
Adding Frederick, and then Kane, really gives the team the ability to run Nuge and Henrique as centers.
I wasn’t sure if Ekholm would be able to jump back in and contribute at a high level after missing 6 games. I’m pleasantly surprised. The defense looks stacked as it is, which makes life easier for the goaltenders.
Ekholm was missing for a lot of that recent stretch of bad games, wasn’t he?
Thanks for my morning Lowetide crack LT… appreciate what you do everyday.