Wreck On The Highway

by Lowetide

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Harpers Hair

For those interested…

Victory+, a free streaming service created to carry Dallas sports action, will be streaming the WHL playoffs live.

You will need a VPN set to the U.S. to watch but it is otherwise free.

Genjutsu

Thanks for that.

Traveller

Interesting hearing from Kevin Woodley today on his weekly guest spot on Gregor. Based on the data he has access to, Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy play in the second and third easiest environments in the league. That is with the environment being defined as expected save percentage based on the quality of shots faced. (ie. regardless of the goalie in net, what is the chance the shots faced will be saved based on their league wide data.. He conceded that stats aren’t everything but just what that metric shows.

To his surprise the Goalie with the easiest environment is none other than Calvin Pickard with the highest expected save percentage. With Skinner in net, the shot quality against results in a league average expected save percentage and is .12 below the number for Pickard.

So this addresses part of the discussion yesterday about comparing the play of Pickard to Skinner. Pickard has better counting numbers but he seems to face lower quality chances against. As mentioned this is likely due to him playing a lot less high caliber teams, but it is also possible that the Oilers defend differently in front of him.

Last edited 20 hours ago by Traveller
Scungilli Slushy

Below I commented Pick has had 3 starts against teams that I think are strong. That is largely based on the tracking project I do. So the lower QCA and better defending are likely due to lesser opponents and easier games to do well in

Admiral Ackbar

I wonder how Pick’s stick handling skills factor in to this.

leadfarmer

Skinner Mcdavid Hyman
Podkolzin Drai. Arvi
Kane Nuge Fredrickson
Janmark/brown Henrique Perry

Ekholm Bouch
Nurse Wallman
Kulak Emberson

OriginalPouzar

Switch the middle six wingers based on current play.

OriginalPouzar

Per Coach:

Connor will not play any of the three games this week.

Drai not quite day to day yet so probably out for all three as well.

Reja

We are going to need to beat L.A twice in regulation to end up in the 2 hole.

Scungilli Slushy

Oilers remaining

Stars
Krak
fLames
Knights
Sharks
Kings
Ducks
Blues
Sharks
Jets
Kings
Sharks
5 out of 12 hard

Kings

Rangers
Avs
Leafs
Sharks
Jets
Utah
Oilers
Krak
Ducks
Avs
Oilers
Krak
fLAmes

7 out of 13 hard

Knights

Wild
Hawks
Preds
Oilers
Jets
fLames
Canucks
Avs
Krak
Preds
fLames
Canucks

4 out of 10 hard?

The game against the Knights may not have the Duo back, I doubt they make up the 5 point gap, you never know. Luckily 2 hard games in the next five, 3W 2L is possible which is better than their current P%. It likely comes right down to the wire but if they play up to their best game they can finish 2nd, maybe 1st still

Harpers Hair

The Kings are now reaping the benefits for very tough road heavy schedule in the first half of the season.

That travel took a toll but they are now left with 10 more home games and only 4 on the road.

Their record at home is 25-3-4

Can you imagine only losing 3 games in regulation at home this late in the season?

Lewis Grant

LA is unbeaten in 14 (I think) at home. Losing playoff home ice advantage against them is a material factor.

I don’t think we can simply write them off as a speedbump on the road, just because we’ve beaten them three years in a row.

Crazy Pedestrian

Awesome. Just awesome.
Especially when both Vegas and LA are both firing on all cylinders right now. LA scored 7 goals in b2b games, and still have the best home record in the league. If Oilers don’t get home ice advantage, I fear they will not get out of the first round.

John Chambers

Nonsense. Frederick and Kane will be Bash Brothers in rd 1, while our Center depth of 97-29-93 completely outclasses Kopitar – Byfield – Danault.
The ’25 playoff Oilers have a better D than the ’24 version that won in 5 games. All the Kings have added are Warren Foegele and Darcy Kuemper. It’ll be another sad spring for Will Ferrell.

Harpers Hair

The Kings have also added:

David Rittich .921 2.15 GAA

Brandt Clarke GF 60.50%

Joel Edmundon GF 60.40%

A healthy Alex Turcotte GF 59.30%

Tanner Jeannot GF 51.10% (and plenty of hits)

Samuel Helenius 6’4″ 217

Andrei Kuzmenko GF 70.0% (in limited action0

And, of course, a new Head Coach in Jim Hiller who has gone away from the passive 1-3-1 system to a far more aggressive forecheck.

Other than that…exactly the same 🙂

Last edited 21 hours ago by Harpers Hair
dangilitis

”Big Save Dave” was there last year. You didn’t remember? I wrote a poem about him last year on the blog, when “across the goal line his glove did wave.” He was brought in after Talbot was shelled

Talbot 3 GP, GAA 5.30, SV.861
Rittich 2 GP, 2.56 .872
You told us last year how good this goaltending tandem was in the regular season 😂. Imagine being such a troll that you can’t remember how you trolled the year before.

Sorry if we’re not scared of the scrubs you listed and the Kings getting rid of the trap that was literally the only thing going for it in years past.

Byfield is the X factor for that team, as is Kuemper (he’s played well against the oilers for several different teams, not in playoffs). Kopitar and Doughty are another year closer to retirement and Kempe has his extra gear but that gear is still limited.

With a healthy Oilers lineup, I think it’s another series win but nothing is a given. Other than HH is a sad, sad man

dangilitis

And again, challenging you to put your money where your mouth is.

OriginalPouzar

So is Edmonton, right? 4-0-1 in last 5, I believe (with the OTL coming to the league’s top team via record).

MushedPeas

My only concern is player health. A full, healthy roster would be better than what Oil brought to the dance last year.

Reja

It’s hard to beat the same team 4 years in a row sooner or later Kings will find the ingredient to stop the Oilers.

Reja

Let’s see this team pull on the same rope. We have a very active D core that’s ready to burst at the seams now that their security blanket is gone.

Reja

I hope Pickard starts the next game we need these points more than hurting ones feelings. Pickard has only had a couple of iffy games he deserves this start on performance. A 895 save percentage isn’t going to get it done against Dallas

scooooterman

When was the last time Skinner stole a game for the oilers?

John Chambers

Against the NY Rangers a little over a week ago.

LateNightOilFan

Last Sunday vs the Rangers.

Reja

This blog throws a shindig everytime he comes up even against the opposing backstoppers. This is the best defence we’ve had since the Pronger days.

MushedPeas

Still room to gel. Not sure they’re all there just yet.

OriginalPouzar

Saturday vs. the Kraken?

All models that I’ve seen had Seattle with more expected goals and 3 of the 4 models had the Kraken with apx 4.5 expected goals (the other right at 4).

DevilsLettuce

And he gave up 4, he didn’t give up 1 or 2. Stealing the game would mean he cut the expected goals against in half and stood on his head. He didn’t, the Oilers scored more then expected and won.

OriginalPouzar

Feel free to use whatever definition of “stealing a game” works for you.

All I know is that all the models I’ve seen have Skinner letting in fewer goals as expected and being the goalie in a game where the opposition had more expected goals than the Oilers.

DevilsLettuce

In no world is stealing a game by giving up the expected goals an honest retort.

The Oilers won 5-4, the opposition goalie was not very good and we’re able to pull out a victory.

OriginalPouzar

He let in fewer goals than expected.

All models have the Oilers losing the game based on flow of play/scoring chances/expected goals.

Do with it as you will.

oil-in-the-blood

Definitely he was excellent against the Rangers, one of his best of the year. Just having that more than the other would quiet down the negative.

Reja

I want so badly to cheer for him and I do but he leaks goals at bad times. I don’t trust Pickard either but the man has earned it where as Skinner has been fighting the puck all season. Bowman chose to give this tandem one last chance and I hope they prove me wrong.

oil-in-the-blood

me too! Been a rough one for him!

Scungilli Slushy

I looked it up and Pick has 3 starts against what I see as top teams (Car, Was, NJ at the time) and lost 2 of them, out of 26 starts. He’s replaced Stu against (Wpg, Col, Wpg) and those were losses. Pretty sure it’s pumped his SV% compared to Stu, and it sure seems the coaches prefer Stu against top teams

DevilsLettuce

He’s beaten Minnesota twice posted a 987% and 912% given up given up 4 goals on 64 shots against. But your narratives are sacred.

Scungilli Slushy

I just don’t think the Wild are a very good team. They are 26th in GF

Also, chronic use of the Lettuce leads to irritability

DevilsLettuce

The Wild are 2 points behind Edmonton, while notoriously being a very hard out for Edmonton.

Stick to hockey, chronic use of ignoring the facts leads to needing personal insults to “win” a debate lol.

Scungilli Slushy

You call yourself Devils Lettuce and took a poke for no good reason. I thought that was a pretty mild way of pointing that out

I track 13 teams this season as I am sure you know bcs you are around a lot. The Wild are the worst team by a bit. I looked up all of Pick’s games. Traveller has also has talked about strength of opponent and goalie results. The Wild are in a different division. Who is ignoring the facts?

OriginalPouzar

Looks like Skinner on Wed and Pickard on Thursday vs. the Kraken.

OriginalPouzar

Per Tony B:

EDM lines & pairings – Monday’s practice:

• Ekholm* is not on the ice

Podkolzin – RNH – Arvidsson

Kapanen – Henrique – Hyman

Skinner – Janmark – Brown

Jones – Ryan – Perry

Kane* – Bouchard

Nurse – Walman

Kulak – Stecher

Klingberg – Emberson

Skinner

Pickard

OriginalPouzar

Got to get Emberson in against Seattle – presuming he isn’t hurt and I don’t think he is.

In my opinion.

Last edited 1 day ago by OriginalPouzar
OriginalPouzar

Tony B. has video of Kane from practice.

Looks good.

defmn

Yes he does. Big grin on his face is good to see as well.

Last edited 1 day ago by defmn
oil-in-the-blood

It almost seems like the oil are resting players purposely. I realize that I am talking out my _____, but I don’t mind these vets taking a rest. Emberson def needs some reps soon!

kinger_OIL

— After Nuges game as the 1C i had a thought experiment: how would this team do sans McDrai with RNH as 1C vs the last time he was 1C : with the 3 Steve Austins

— No need to get into the nitty gritty : but hall ebs and Perron were the top3 point getters. RNH 4th with 56

— secondary scoring garner hemsky (traded)

— Not pretty team but it’s amazing “how close” many thought that roster was. Tire fire D Petry than kaka and Jultz “Bouchard-lite”

— Just stunning to look back and see how little the team had built then : a decade later McDra and a trip to the Cup and RNH a key but secondary piece.

Nothing really to conclude: except that RNH wasn’t the C that was going to be foundational piece for cup. : great player seems like he’s morphed into his optimal role …

OriginalPouzar

We did just see Nuge and Hall with hatty’s on back to back days!

Lewis Grant

Not pretty team but it’s amazing “how close” many thought that roster was. 

The word “fan” comes from “fanatic”, which is synonymous with self-delusion. It’s what we sign up for.

I remember when the rookie Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson line was going to lead us to the promised land; Horcoff-Smyth-Hemsky would only be our second line!

When that didn’t work out, our three #1 picks were sure to do the job. And then Jultz chose us, and scored 34-18-30-48 in the AHL. How could future Cups not be ours?

Glad to see a few of my fellow delusionals from that era are still here.

YYCOil

What are the Oilers doing with the farm team in Bakersfield? 25 years ago, you could tell a 20-year-old to go find an apartment in Bakersfield and we will start you on the third line in the AHL, and you will enjoy the short bus rides.

Check out the top US college/CHL programs, they are better than what the Condors provide. There has been a huge shift in amateur sports, the Halifax Voyager wouldn’t make it with today’s player expectations.

The Oiler’s AHL team needs to be moved to Edmonton NEXT year. There are so many advantages for the player development it really shouldn’t be a discussion anymore.

Matt Savoie would you prefer access to the best trainers, have the NHL coaches watch you practice as often as you want, fly to your games, be called up to the NHL with a hours’ notice, live in the same apartment or do you want to play in Bakersfield which is a little better than your junior hockey experience?

Last edited 1 day ago by YYCOil
MushedPeas

I know logistics but I’ll always root for Toon Town landing an Oil farm team.

OriginalPouzar

Munzenburger should be sign and in Bako already unless he isn’t willing to sign (which, of course, is a possibility, but, to me, doesn’t seem likely).

Come on Stan and Keith.

Shamus23

Maxim Berezkin @ 6.4/211 RWer with 15G/42 Points in the K this year his contract is up. His big disadvantage was always his skating. It is said he has improved it. No clue if he has . Oil will probably look to signing him.

OriginalPouzar

I’ve been waiting, with baited breath for his current contract to expire.

I’m not sure why but I read that KHL contracts are extended for a month this year until the end of May so I think the ability to sign opens in June.

Every day I don’t read about a KHL extension is a good day.

Jethro Tull

I’ll bite: Why hasn’t Todd Nelson been given a real shot yet?

hunter1909

How was watching the Oilers sans Draisaitl/McDavid?

They looked like a pretty good hockey team from where I was watching(computer screen).

Jethro Tull

It was fun. They matched the intensity of the 3rd period against the peg, which was my main concern. It might sound weird, but there seemed like less pressure without Drai and Connor? Lowered expectations? Nuge was back to being the Power Play witch, was a vintage display of smart two way center hockey.

Scungilli Slushy

GMs don’t like Harleys. They are into Suzuki

hunter1909

Please can anyone explain to me how the goalie coach who is certainly worthless if results are used as a criteria manages to keep his job?

hunter1909

It looks like that goalie coach is well connected throughout Lowetide.

No problem. Just keep on trying the same thing and hope for different results.

Scungilli Slushy

I think because most goalies have their own coaches and not much happens in season. From what Stu said it seems more like the job is about keeping them in the right head space and perhaps feed back, small tweaks if a bad habit starts

JS gets along with Stu well, not all goalie coaches are easy to deal with apparently, based on what Bryzgalov said on Gregor

DevilsLettuce

Not much happens in season? What?
Stu brought in Kobe’s mental guru during the playoffs, and other outside help. So what exactly does the goalie coach do then?

How does a goalie coach not work on his awful rebound control? Or how about getting him to stay on his feet? He’s always on his knees? Then he awkwardly gets up during a cycle only to be late to getting into position and gets beat by a shooter. He’s zigging while he should be zagging, everything that is negatively affecting Stu’s game is laying at the goalie coaches feet, things that should be fixable and worked on during the season. Seems like alot does happen during the season, and if Stu is unable to realize this, maybe it is time to look elsewhere.

Mayan Oil

From my understanding, an often unmentioned but material part of a goalie coach’s duties include game planning approach to opposition goalies weknesses and tendencies as well. Perhaps we should be looking at that aspect in evaluating the Goalie coach as well?

DevilsLettuce

That would make it even worse as most of the roster is making the opposing goalies typically look like vezina winners.

Scungilli Slushy

I mean they apparently don’t change fundamentals, equipment etc. There isn’t a lot of time and it’s risky especially for goalies to change much in season. This is from what I’ve read and heard

Mental things sure if they want it. I read comments from his off season coach all positive about things he worked on I don’t recall his name. To me at his age he should have his game down mostly and I don’t think he does. Experience only comes with time, getting used to big pressure games etc

Reja

Have you ever been on a job and there’s one person you don’t know what they do. This person just floats around and when the work starts there gone like a ghost only to reappear when the work is done.

Last edited 1 day ago by Reja
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