Leon Draisaitl elevates everyone’s game. As this item (written ages ago) shows, one doesn’t have to be one of the best players in the game in order to make those around them better, but it helps.
The Oilers won last night, in a game that was in doubt until late. Leon Draisaitl was the primary author in the victory, and made everyone better just by stepping on the ice.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-1-1)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 8-5-1
The Oilers eclipsed the prediction by one point, and are now in a dogfight for second place in the division. That’s important enough to fight for, and last night’s results (TML did EDM a favor) have things pointed in a good direction.
THE NUMBERS
On the first GA, Max Jones doesn’t pick up his man, juicy rebound from Pickard. Second goal Emberson turnover (double team, it happens) and then jailbreak. Both goals can be filed under “geschissen happens” and I don’t believe a mortal sin was committed.
The story of the game was Draisaitl. He scored goal No. 50, that’s the fourth time he’s done it. Amazing hockey player. Craig MacTavish and Stu MacGregor did good work draft day 2014. It takes a village.
Darnell Nurse was wildly effective again, what a fine year from a man who is thriving under this coaching staff. Edmonton has a 54 percent goal share when Nurse is on the ice (five-on-five), and are just 48 percent when he is at rest. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, haters.
Viktor Arvidsson scored, he has three goals in his last seven and is up to 11 for the season. If he can be the best version of himself in the playoffs, that’s a very good thing.
People rip Evan Bouchard on the double, but that pass to Leon for his 50th is the reason you play the man. He can beat coverage with a single pass and send rushing forwards on their way. Draisaitl’s shot was power and glory.
CONDORS WIN!
I wrote about Colin Chaulk at The Athletic today (here), I’m sure many will disagree with my thoughts. I hope you read it. Brett Brochu won again last night, Matt Savoie was 1+1 (18-28-46 in 57 games, NHLE 13-19-32 in 82 games) and a key part of the victory. This Condors team is one for the ages, basically half of the team is without an NHL contract and they are fighting tooth and nail for the playoffs. Bless these kids.
New for The Athletic: In defence of Edmonton Oilers AHL head coach Colin Chaulk
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6240478/2025/03/30/colin-chaulk-bakersfield-condors-coach/
I look forward to reading this today.
Chaulk gets eviscerated by many – a few in here, and elsewhere online – I am confident that most that lay in to him don’t watch the Condors and aren’t in the know about what is happening with the team, generally or from night to night.
Chaulk played a role in developing guys like Kesselring, but the bulk of the chores were done by Woodcroft/Manson, no? Chaulk was there too, in a lesser role, and was barely half a season into his role as head coach by the time Holland traded MK to Arizona.
By the same logic, one would have to fade Chaulk’s influence on Broberg and Holloway considering the bulk of their time was under the ManWood regime.
I don’t have anything in particular against Chaulk, but just like Schwartz, the organization should aim higher. Ideally you’d have your replacements for KK and Coffey if there’s a change behind the bench. Would be awesome to have the next John Cooper waiting in the wings.
The Frozen Four squadrons have been determined. The semis on April 10 feature:
#8 Boston U vs. #12 Penn State
#3 Western Michigan vs. #6 Denver (the defending champs)
Things are breaking nicely for the Terriers.
Don’t you mean the Boston Hutsons?
Just looking at the box scores for the WHL box scores and Gavin McKenna had 9 points in the 1st 2 games of the playoffs for Medicine Hat.
I think the reason why Grier changed his mind and traded us Walman is because it was too tempting to extend the tanking to increase their chances of getting McKenna next year. “Divin’ for Gavin”.
Draisaitl is an absolute Beast. Last night showed why he is hands down the best hockey player in the world right now. That 2nd goal was such a snipe. The guy is an absolute beast. I think Nathan Mackinon is a great hockey player but even without him Colorado has a really good team, especially with Makar in the fold. But this year the Edmonton Oilers without Drai (having the year he is ), for the whole year would not be in a playoff position right now. Even with Connor McDavid
Summarizing!
O’Reilly finished with an assist–and a scrap–as the Knights won Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead into the Sound of Owen.
Day was roughed up for six goals on 43 shots as Flint dropped Game 2. They are in a 2-0 series deficit coming home.
Nicholl, Clattenburg and Berry were forbidden soup and shall have to subsist on raw kohlrabi instead.
I love Kohlrabi right out of the garden with a bit of salt!
Then you may join them!
For what its worth from 2 Mutts:
That gives him a few games to get up to speed for the playoffs.
Be nice to know when Frederic draws in.
Frederic is about to start skating with the team.
I think it will still be a week plus with no set-back – but I’m really just guessing.
Those guys who lie about everything back at it again selling hope.
Wow that is some slick work by the Caps to get McMichael at 25 then Protas at 91 back in 2019. Then this past spring get a million dollar goalie for peanuts and then Chychrun on a value deal for chump change. Never underestimate contract years.
They seem like the Nucks. Everything has gone right for them this year with the incentive of the Ovi chase added in.
I don’t see them as a contender but applaud the career years from everyone. Maybe Carberry is the goods, sure looks like it.
Getting Chychrun for cheap. great.
Paying Chychrun big money on a long term deal. Not great
That is going to be a very regrettable contract
As the cap spikes Chychrun at $9 million promises to be a bargain.
He’s finally, at the age of 25, playing on a good team.
GF 59.80%
(for reference, Bouchard is at 51.30%)
Who you play with makes a huge difference.
For reference, Chychrun is 5th among D on his team on %TOI vs. elites at 26.7% whereas Bouchard is 2nd on his team at 31.8% (essentially tied with Ek for 1st at 32%).
Who you play against also matters.
Jakob Chychrun was drafted in 2016 and is now 27 years old.
McDavid not travelling. May join team during the trip. Won’t be in the next couple of games for sure but still scheduled before end of season.
Ekholm similar. It IS something that should be 100% with rest. Should not be lingering and need fixing in summer.
Skinner may join at end of trip.
Both Kane and Frederick will be on the trip.
Frederick is now going to start skating with the team.
All injured players are projected back 100% prior to end of season.
Perry missed practice sick today.
Peculiar that they chose to play Ekholm then. Did the injury get re-aggravated or was he not fully healed? We will never know. A healthy Ekholm settles the entire defense
I would think if its was “re-aggravated” then is must not have been fully healed. Now, whether they knew is wasn’t 100% is another question, I would think.
I hope Frederic gets at least 5-6 games in
Anyone else thinking St Louis is coming after WC1? Would love them coming in off a heater and upsetting VGK for us 😉
Be careful what you wish for.
If you think the Blues are a tougher out than the Golden Knights, I don’t know what to tell you. But this comment certainly makes any objective observer question your knowledge of hockey.
Upsets happen in the playoffs.
This . How funny would it be ( God Forbid) if St Louis goes further in the playoffs than the Oilers do. That team is so fast and if Binnington is hot , LOOK OUT
Calvin Pickard and Quality Starts:
Hockey Reference has a ranking of Quality Start %, and the list of goalies with 25+ GP is fascinating
1)Hellebuyck .745
2) Gustavsson .725
3) Stolarz .714
4) Gibson .714
5) Pickard .680
6) L Thompson .675
7) Blackwood .673
8) Hofer .654
9) Kuemper .651
10) Vasiylevskiy .649
https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2025_goalies.html
We need to take QoC into account for backups
Skinner is well down the list at .479
Picks got blown up by Seattle this week, and has been a trainwreck in a small handful of outings this season (against Chicago very early if I recall). This has earned him a rather unimpressive .899 GAA for the season.
He has otherwise been extremely reliable.
For playoffs I might prefer Pickard’s 2/3 of a chance to win the game vs Skinner’s 48%.
Yes Knobby needs to play the goalie that gives them the best chance to win regardless of anything else. Unless Stu gets hot it’s probably Pick right now until proven otherwise
Perhaps one should looks that the probability a goaltender has a good start playing a 2nd game in a row, and then three games in a row, and in far more other contexts, quality of competition, days of rest, oppositions days of rest, etc.
And then run it through machine learning.
Before deciding that one particular number is truth.
Absolutely loved Pickard’s game last night and glad he was able to get the start right away to get rid of the Kraken entire team stinker. Also, if he gets on a roll that gives them more time to get Stu fully recovered. The news today that Stu won’t be travelling with the team for the beginning of the trip is concerning, but you can’t mess around with head/neck injuries.
Picks has been amazing in his role this season.
With that said, and as mentioned by others, if you dig into the quality starts against the teams in a playoff position today, Picks has 4 of his 16 against playoff teams. While Stu’s QS% is not great, 12 of his 23 are against playoff teams. My figures are from Dobberhockey and they differ from Hockey Reference with a QS% of 53.3% for Picks and 46.9% for Stu. They must have slightly different definitions.
Finally someone around here brings up the good job Pickard been doing he made some big saves last night. Pickard with his 18 wins is giving us a good bang for our buck. Like you mentioned above he’s had a couple of stinkers but when he’s dialed in he’s steady eddy. If we’re firing on all cylinders this spring I do think we win the Cup with steady eddy goaltending.
Oilers are near unbeatable with 900 goaltending, some folks do everything they can to dump on Pickard for winning the majority of his outings.
Thanks.
Of note, Jones played his tenth game last night which makes him waivers eligible again. Not that he’d be claimed.
Some criticism of Walman and praise of Bouchard throughout the comments. Both are high event players and important to EDM’s defensive core.
Over the 11 games Walman has played here his 5v5 shares have been better than Bouchard’s during this rough patch. During this time, Nurse has been the star of the show.
In terms of shares for pairings, Nurse-Walman has a 75% goal share during which period Ekholm-Bouchard has a 50 percent share.
Thanks for the data.
Emberson is really struggling.
O’Reilly extends his point streak to 11 games with an early apple.
He’s been coming along lately. Thankfully he’s giving us a late season spike
I want to recognize the response the team showed physically. Led by Nurse, they hit everything and everybody. Cory was going to get his, even Bouchard was rough. No real fighting and one penalty.
Even Skinner was hitting… recall a few on the offensive-end boards. He’s listening, doesn’t want to lose his current role.
Skinner had 5 of the 9 hits credited to forwards.
The non-Leon minutes were not great last night but, in due course, (1) they will have Leon or Connor on for 2/3 of each game and (2) the other minutes will have better players when you add (and subtract) 3 forwards from tonight’s lineup.
What a laser by Leon … twice.
Not only did he find a hole but he thread the needle
i thought Janmark had a very effective defensive game disrupting the play. Honorable mentions for sure
Wolf has had a terrific season and Drai beat him twice cleanly!!! What a player!
Even without the 2 late goals Leon controlled the game. If Arvidsson or Podkolzin had any finish Leon would of easily had 5 points. It’s such a treat to watch near peak Leon who has 3-4 more 50 goal seasons in him regardless of what Connor does.
Generally effective but certainly not on the 2nd goal against:
https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/cgy-vs-edm/2025/03/29/2024021167
I love peak Darnell Nurse. It’s not every night but we see him often this season and that is a very nice player.
Especially effective when he gets physical! Love Nasty Nurse!
He has regained some of the swagger that makes him effective. He’s been carrying the puck more but I would like to see them give him more of a green light to create and go end to end more aka Paul Coffey style. I do think if he goes wide and barrels to the net coming off the wing he can cause all kinds of chaos for the defending team. Anyhow you don’t hear much of Nurses salary whike berating him constantly I guess that crowd has moved on to hourly whining about Broberg-Holloway.
Bouchard
3 forwards to add to the lineup of fully healthy.
Jones is the easy first scratch.
We’ve presume Kap is next but coach has upped his usage recently. He’s still likely number two.
I can’t imagine Jeff Skinner being scratched and Perry just, well, he needs to play. Maybe a game here or there.
How important is Janmark to the PK? Like really. I know he’s stepped up in the playoffs before but, in addition to being a black hole offensively, he has not been solid defensively in months. Egregious back check on the 2nd goal against last night and it’s not the first mistake recently.
Good question on the 3rd scratch. Who handles PK duties if you don’t have Janmark? Nuge, Henrique, Brown and possibly Frederic (he’s averaged roughly .42 minutes a game).
You’d need to make sure his ankle is fully healed (that’s a lot of starts and stops) but giving him some time would not be unreasonable. If he doesn’t play until April 9th against St. Louis, does that give you enough games to see if he can handle it?
If you then scratch Janmark, you’d think Arvidsson would be another candidate as well although I seem to remember he started the season getting PK minutes and was moved off it.
Podz provides some depth PK minutes as well (as does Kap but he’s likely already out).
I don’t think they take Janny out, his PK is valuable – its his top attribute (and he has “playoff performance pedigree”).
Brown could be an option as well but he’s more locked in 2-ways than Janny (these days) and also is a plus PK guy.
We need to remember, even with the black hole offensively, the PK will be massive in the playoffs.
Good point, completely forgot about Podz.
Janmark is the best transporter of the puck on the bottom lines, he’s one of the only Oilers.. sometimes the only Oiler that mucks it up and comes to his linemates aid.
He does whatever the team asks of him, he played a vital role on the PK last spring and will again this year.
Several players are guilty of missing a back check, happens every game to every team. Brown makes multiple mistakes every shift.
Missing backchecks and making mistakes is one thing – doing it while adding absolutely nothing at the other end is another thing.
Saying that Brown makes multiple mistakes every shift shows dishonesty in conversation. Brown has been a more responsible defensive player over the last few months, to my eye and, I believe, as “verified” by the Cult’s scoring chance data.
Which is, in itself, based on the eye test.
Re: Bouchard, there was a post on reddit talking about defensemen who leave the zone under control the most often and dump it in least often. In the top 4 was our own Mr Bouchard.
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/1jms6od/michael_clifford_from_allthreezones_tracked_data/
And yet the other top players listed there all get respect while Bouchard continuously gets dumped on. It seems clear to me the hate is not about results or ability, but rather the eye test and a keen ability to remember mistakes while ignoring or not seeing the positivesl contributions. Hopefully people can start remembering great plays like the pass on that goal as well.
Does he get dumped on? He does like to make some egregious errors but most of the Conversation around him is do you pay him 9 mil a year or 10 and what do you do if he demands 11
I feel like a lot of people try to pigeon-hole him as an offensive defenseman who benefits from playing with Draisaitl/McDavid. So when the matter of pay comes up, people try to discount his performance instead of recognizing that he is in fact one of the league’s top two-way defensemen.
Check out OilersNation…….
Bouchard has things to work on in his game absolutely. Folks might remember a force of hockey nature named Chris Pronger whose game wasn’t dialed in at 25. Unless the cap disagrees, it’s almost always a mistake to move on from provenly effective players, without a major return coming back
Bouchard is a point magnet always has been always will be. I really like Evan and so does every G.M in the league that would love to to have Bouchard especially when he peaks around 30. In saying that he’s our most valuable commodity if done properly Bowman could fetch a huge cost controlled return added with the cap money Bouchard could be our meal ticket for the next 5 years plus.
Bouchard has had this ability for a few years ago, that’s not new. But for many fans, I think he’s taken a major step back in the mistake department when the puck is on his stick. It’s not a “player type” issue anymore, ie, “hit more!”. It’s that seemingly every game this year, he’s making puck mistakes that lead to major ten bell chances and often, goals.
is he being played harder? Maybe? Goalies not bailing him out as much? Some.
This is me. Like the player, want to sign the player. But there is real regression in his mental game, which is hard to capture in stats because they are single, but game-changing events.
Drai is my favorite Oiler today. Tikkanen was my favorite player back in the day. Drai’s GT goal last night reminded me of Tikkanen’s clincher against Calgary back in the 1991 playoffs.
Had a wonderful night with my family at the game last night. First live game I’ve been to since 2015.
Kid was on top of the let’s go Oilers chants. Proud Dad moment.
Lost our shit with the rest of the crowd when Leon scored his 50th. I haven’t seen Drai play this dominate live since he was a Kelowna Rocket. Amazing player to watch.
Awesome end to our vacation in this great city.
https://x.com/ExtraLars/status/1906210017348346096?s=19
Update on the episode that stopped the game last.
Wow!
Thanks for sharing this.
As the checking gets tighter in the playoffs would love to see Leon do more of the Messier like shot coming down the wing.
I want to love the Jake Walman pickup like everyone seems to but I’m just not seeing him all that great. And the numbers kind of back that up. In the last 10 games his HDanger shots against per 60 is last at 4.55.
Agreed. Emberson hasn’t looked all that great either since returning to the line up.
Emberson has not looked good for quite a while, explaining his absence from the line-up. Was hoping for a reset upon his return but am not encouraged.
I have thought for a while that the Oilers dilly dallied far too long on making their call on players. Which lead to poor returns, or just the loss of the player. Not to mention weak pro scouting
I hope the Bowman era ends this. I believe that a good NHL manager (or coach) should be able to watch a player for a period of time and have an assessment on their capabilities. Not fooled by those guys that look like NHL hockey players – big, fast, rough, whatever – but aren’t that good at NHL hockey especially when it counts
My point being they should know what Emberson is. Maybe a younger D that has upside and will develop. Or maybe a guy that doesn’t process the game well enough. If the latter get a better player. That fella may be in house in Regula if he gets his leg back to good
For me if a D isn’t a high skill type or one of those natural really good at D types, I prefer a bigger body that can still skate and is hard to play against, takes up more D zone space
who was his main partner last night….with 3 of many turnovers in his own zone in ONE shift !! I lost count on his total…what a disaster defensively….yes, he is magic with those long passes…however what does it cost in our own zone…..white hair and third string goalies.
15:28 with Bouch at 5 on 5 (2 minutes with Nurse).
I like Walman better with Nurse than Bouch, even if its on his off-side.
Bouch and Walman think offence first.
if you filter for the last 11 games, you will see he’s not last at all. Bouchard is last over this period. All of the numbers are higher due to poor defense.
https://ibb.co/MxykNFSd
Walman & Nurse are killing it. Walmans shares look pretty good to me. He is high event though.
https://ibb.co/R464ZfvR
Explain to me how Nuge and Rico can look like serviceable 1/2 C’s while 97 and 29 are out and the day Leon comes back they completely fall off the earth. I’m not sure I saw either one make an offensive play. And it’s not like Leon took all the good wingers. His guys have about 15 goals combined.
There’s such logic in playing those guys at 3/4C to dominate those minutes. That’s a much easier job then first line C against the stars but they just fall flat on their faces.
Leon’s line is up to 69 goals on the season now.
7 for Podkolzin, 11 for Arvidsson & 51 for Draisaitl. Solid balance there! 🤪
Could you imagine if Podz could find his scoring touch?That is the only part of his game that can be criticized.
I’m not sure he ever had one…… I mean KHL high season was 11 points (granted only 2 seaons of 30 and 35 games and he was a kid).
NHL high of 26 points as a rookie. Barely a .5 PPG in the AHL last season.
Prospectodon!
The OHL contingent returns to action as Game 2 for both London and Flint occurs today.
London cruised to a 6-1 win in the opener, O’Reilly (goal) and Nicholl (assist) finding the scoresheet.
Flint’s fate was crueler, yet another one-goal game vs. Kitchener that didn’t go their way in a 4-3 OT loss. Day stopped 29 of 33 while Clattenburg returned from a six-game absence.
Berry completes the sched as Muskegon tries to salvage a win from this weekend’s 3-in-3.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ noon
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ noon
Muskegon (Berry) @ 1 p.m.
All times are two times and are also Perryvale time.
@Lowetide, that was Max Jones who missed his assignment on the first goal, not Podkolzin. IMO that was definitely a sin, as he was back already and simply had to take the man, but instead just watched the puck.
As I mentioned prior to his debut, Jones is an AHL player and the best version of him was on full display in his first game. He is simply a placeholder for Frederic.
I continue to hold out hope that Joel Määta is signed within the week for this season. If needed, he would be available as a playoff reinforcement. His game is predicated on responsibility and physicality.
He would be an improvement over Jones and he is an above average FO man.
It is a massive worry that there is not much depth available in the forward ranks.
LT you talk about not picking up your man as an “it happens kind of thing” but if we want to go anywhere it can’t happen. Dial in, pay attention, and pick up your freaking man.
I can’t imagine the team playing Joel Maata over Noah Philp this season.
Also, this team has very good forward depth. If healthy:
13F – Janmark (or Perry or Brown)
14F – Ryan
15F Jones
Also, Philp plus Savoie are NHL ready (but untrusted).
Hamblin and Caggiula in behind as well.
My point is, Määtä is a 2 way player. He and Philp would not be competing for the same job (LW). Määtä is a Left shot center and would be, IMO, a better solution than Jones as a physical, defensive-minded organizational depth winger in the playoffs.
Maata and Philp are both two-way centers and Philp would be a better fit at center given the right shot.
Jones is nowhere near the healthy playoff roster, probably 16F and, anyone coming in would be competing with the likes of Janmark for a bottom of the lineup spot, in particular 4LW, no?
Also, of course, at least in my opinion, I’m not even positive that Maata would be an impact player in the AHL let alone be able to play NHL games (let alone NHL playoff games).
I think Philip would be so much further ahead than Maata.
Thanks. I appreciate the help! these old eyes….
Jones was the high forward & got on his horse to make it a 3-on-3.
Thus endeth the good news.
Instead of simply identifying & hanging with his man (a.k.a. “the goal scorer”) he got magnetized by the puck & floated over towards the guy who had it, who was already contained. Bam, shot, rebound, goal.
Jones did have an excellent, indeed memorable debut as an Oiler, hitting everything that moved & scoring a fine assist in the first period.
Well, he’s now up to 10 GP, has played 82 minutes at 5v5 with a shot share of 35% (21 for, 39 against), an expected goals share of 30% (1.99 for, 4.55 against) and an actual goal share of 14% (1 for, 6 against). Despite averaging just 8 minutes a night, he’s been a minus player in 6 of his last 9.
Agree with €£¥§#& (sp.?) that he is surely a placeholder for Frederic, who cannot heal up quickly enough.