Wow. Just wow. The Oilers last night were flying and delivered a brilliant performance for home town fans. The return of Connor McDavid tilted the ice and made the visiting St. Louis Blues look ordinary in spite of an incredible won-loss record in recent weeks.
All of this came on the same day I questioned the organization’s vague promises about every injured player being close. Last night was Game 78, the playoffs are just around the corner. Edmonton had eight men out. I wondered about the credibility of suggesting all would be able to return, and really wondered if all would be close to 100 percent when they did gain entrance to the playing roster.
We don’t know what we don’t know, but if Connor McDavid’s performance last night is a reflection of the Oilers future, then the organization answered me in spectacular fashion. Well done Oilers, well done McDavid.
Now, about Mattias Ekholm…..
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
- On the road to: VEG, SJS, LAK, ANA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: STL, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-1, 11 points in 9 games
- April result: 3-2-0
- Current record: 45-28-5, 95 points in 78 games
With last night’s game and the Flames result, the Oilers are pretty much guaranteed to finish third in the Pacific. A minor fall (LAK losing streak) and a major lift (Oilers win out) would make home-ice advantage for the first round, but that game the other day felt like the organization letting go of that dream. Perhaps I’m wrong.
THE NUMBERS
So many fantastic stories on the night, starting with McDavid. My primary concern about the world’s best player this season is the deep dive in his five-on-five scoring rates. He was 3-0 last night, and is now 47 percent (33-38) without Leon Draisaitl this season and 53 percent overall. Of all the positives last night, McDavid’s return (speed demon, ridiculous skill) towers over the rest, and inspired much of what we saw on the ice last night from other contributors.
Darnell Nurse has delivered a strong season, and played well again last night. Often when fans get angry at a player, it’s because said player made a read and it turned out to be incorrect. It’s a tough gig. Nurse’s radar has been top drawer in 2024-25. I’m glad for him.
Connor Brown scored twice and skated miles last night. It was a solid game for the veteran, and he owns a 51 percent goal share at five-on-five. He’s also up to 1.63 pts-60 in the game state, ranking fifth (behind Draisaitl, McDavid, Skinner and Hyman, in that order) in the discipline. His PK work ensured he would be a playoff regular, if he can score at all Brown will be a big piece of this Oilers spring.
Brett Kulak has had a tough run in recent weeks, I thought he was back last night. A great skater, his intuit compass seemed off lately. He looked better last night.
Evan Bouchard helped on offense and formed a solid pairing with Nurse for much of the game. Confidence is an issue for this player, he was part of an important win and this Oilers team needs him at his best this spring. Perhaps last night was a turning point.
Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson scored from the slot, and I think the Oilers need to do more of it. Arvidsson knows where the goals are scored, but the Podkolzin goal is encouraging because perhaps the answer to ‘is out children learning?’ is yes. Podkolzin as a 20-goal man next season would be a fantastic piece of the puzzle.
Calvin Pickard gets mentioned last but he made some big saves on the night, with some help late on one chance from Nurse. It was a wild game where the goalie needs to check and make sure he has 10 fingers and toes when the whistle blows, but he stood in there like a fine goalie or a left tackle as the situation dictated.
The Lowdown hits at noon today, Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will be our feature guest, and we’ll spend much of the two hours discussing McDavid’s return and its impact. We’ll also talk Jays (won again!), NFL draft and more. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Summarizing!
Akey and O’Reilly each procured two apples in Game 1 wins.
Wakely scored his 3rd of the playoffs.
Copponi had an assist as BU won 3-1. They advance to Saturday’s final against Western Michigan, who beat Denver in double OT.
Soup was not to be Nicholl’s.
Colorado sitting out MacKinnon tonight against Vancouver.
It appears winning the scoring race is not a high priority.
The load management (or at least some version of it) era begins?
Yep.
Another interesting aspect is that Colorado is playing its 80th game tonight and wraps up their regular season on Sunday.
Other WC teams are playing as late as Thursday so Colorado could have as much as a week off.
The only WC team in the playoffs playing Thursday is LA. Three more days off for Colorado than Dallas, their most likely opponent in the first round.
Eichel sitting out his second straight game against Seattle tonight.
It seems to be a thing.
The 4 Nations tuckered out a lot of players.
I’m really good at predicting playoff outcomes (not). Oiler Lightning final
Rodrigue returned to Bako – good job kid.
I hope they give Stu the start tomorrow – if he’s ready to back-up, he’s ready to start and I’d rather his first game back to against the Sharks than Jets or Kings.
Lets go Stu!
He doesn’t look like a future NHLer. It’s his rebound control which is the difference between a ECHL-AHL-NHL. I see other teams 3-4-5 deep with goalie prospects. Holland is like my co-workers Ex who when they split she took everything from the house while he was out of town she even took the last roll of toilet paper.
Both Skinner and Rodrigue were VERY good CHL goaltenders. Edmonton actually has a history of being able to acquire good CHL goalies who are champions in various respects. We just haven’t seen that translate a lot to the NHL yet, other than Skinner, who people tend to forget is only in his third year. Calder Finalist Year 1 to Stanley Cup Game 7 Finalist Year 2. And yet people gloss over those.
I am also obviously biased in multiple ways and hope Brochu works out very well for Edmonton, too. But I hope they all work out, really.
Oilers have re-called Cam Dineen on an emergency basis.
Here is hoping that one (or both) of Ekholm and Walman are ready for Friday.
Coach did say possibly Friday for Walman but they might give him an extra day or two.
Seems they are really erring on the side of giving players more time – I like it – why not?
I know this is different than load management. But we all kind of want load management for this group, don’t we?
Meanwhile the bottom 6 six are getting real minutes and should be on point when the playoffs begin.
Win win
Dineen acquited himself well when he got called up, then they sent him down right away.
Might be nice to see what he can do (again) and see where his audition lands him in the playoff pecking order.
Another snippet from 32 thoughts:
“Lane and Cole Hutson’s undrafted older brother, Quinn, who will play for Boston University at the Frozen Four this week, has serious Western Conference interest.”
Quinn is a 5″11″ 176 lb forward who led BU in scoring with 50 points in 36 games narrowly edging out brother Cole.
That’s the kind of signing the Oilers should be exploring.
Love this kind of post HH, thanks!
Schultz broke a lot of hearts especially how good he looked in the AHL during the lockout.
Schultz is a Stanley cup winner and a damn good dman.
Wow, great post Harper!
Keep the Oilers positivity going 🙂
Shot Quality, Zone Defence, and the Drying Up of Goals in Oil Country
Scoring is down across the NHL, and the Edmonton Oilers are not immune. The club’s goals-for rate in all situations has slipped to 3.15 per 60 minutes, a notable drop from last season’s 3.53. At 5v5, the trend continues: 2.5 from 2.9. The decline has sparked predictable fanbase angst, with fingers pointing at lineup decisions, aging depth, and off-season departures. But in this case, the problem runs deeper — and wider — than Edmonton’s own bench.
A key culprit is the withering number of power play chances, not just for Edmonton, but league-wide. In the halcyon post-lockout days of 2005-06, the Oilers feasted on 485 power plays plays. They cashed 88 times, and rode the shootout and Bettman Point™ all the way to the Stanley Cup Final.
Flash forward to 2024-25, and Edmonton has just 201 power play opportunities on the season. They’ve scored 49 goals on those chances, a far cry from the franchise-high 89 in 2022-23. The Oilers’ PP remains elite (24.4%, 22.4 net), but simply isn’t on the ice often enough to tilt the balance. When a historically great unit featuring McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard is only trotted out a couple times per night, something is amiss.
Yet even strength is where the league has truly bogged down.
Since the Vegas Golden Knights lifted the Cup in 2023, NHL defensive structure has undergone a quiet revolution. Teams have widely adopted a zone-based approach — clogging lanes, shutting down the “royal road,” and forcing attackers outside. The Carolina Hurricanes are a rare holdout. The result? Fewer dangerous chances, and a sharp uptick in low-percentage bombs from the blue line.
This isn’t speculation — the numbers bear it out. Across the league, the average number of 5v5 shots per 60 has dropped from 30.2 in 2022-23 to 27.2 in 2024-25. Meanwhile, unblocked shot attempts (Corsi) have crept up — from 57 to 58.5. More attempts, but fewer shots getting through. Shot quality has declined.
Using Natural Stat Trick’s hextally Scoring Chances data, rendered from the official scoresheet but derived from the models of Sam Ventura and A.C. Thomas:
Scoring Chances (SCF/60) are down: from 30.8 (2021-22) to 26.4 (2024-25)High Danger Chances (HDCF/60) down: 12.0 → 10.7Medium Danger Chances (MDCF/60) down: 16.7 → 15.7Low Danger Chances (LDCF/60) up dramatically: from 25.5 → 34.
In short: we’re seeing more point shots, fewer prime looks, and — predictably — fewer goals. Goalie stats reflect the change in distribution but not necessarily in efficiency. Average 5v5 save percentage has dipped slightly from 91.5 (2022-23) to 91.05 (2024-25), despite facing lower-quality shots. One suspects the increase in net-front chaos and second attempts is keeping netminders honest.
And Edmonton? We’re following the trend:
5v5 SCF/60: 31.1 → 29.4HDCF/60: 13.8 → 12.1MDCF/60: Holding steady at 17.3LDCF/60: Spiking from 23.5 → 37.6The Oilers now have four defenders (Walman, Bouchard, Ekholm, Nurse) in the top 20 league-wide for individual shot attempts per 60 at 5v5. Last year they had three. While some critics point to this as a tactical misstep — “too many shots from the point” — the reality is that it’s not just Edmonton. It’s everyone.
Personnel does matter. Losing Foegele, trading McLeod, offer-sheeting Holloway and Broberg — these decisions have consequences. So does the post-Finals hangover. But even perfect roster management wouldn’t buck this broader trend. Goals are harder to come by not just because of who’s not in the lineup, but because of how everyone is defending now.
The Oilers aren’t zigging where they should zag. They’re zigging because the whole league is zigging — and that’s what the numbers demand. In 2025, Low Danger shots are more important that ever. The only question is whether Edmonton can continue to make the most of
Thanks for these fantastic posts Daniel
The NHL is a copy cat league. It is very uncreative and slow to change and isn’t interested in being innovative. It’s a country mile behind the other big 3, well maybe MLB is in the middle
My point is that the coaches will follow each other. Very often whichever teams are staying at the top, or the recent Cup champs are doing, that’s the new way. A team drafts an amazing undersized D and all the rest start drafting them. Totally missing the point that a Hughes or Maker only come once in a while. Most undersized D struggle to do more than keep a job
Then Vegas wins and you need a big D group. If Tampa wins that will really take off. In any endeavor I can think of, those that innovate dominate. There are so many things that could be done that would give advantage because nobody else is looking, they will follow the status quo and one of the 3 or 4 systems teams use
Years ago a Swedish coach developed the left wing lock, has there been anything developed since? Many moons ago Sather and his group of NHL renegades turned the league on it’s head. Russian style tactics and practices. Everyone else was running wingers up and down the boards, many teams didn’t want the D involved at all, except the Bruins and their game altering Orr
I have suggested the Oilers do it again. There are things to exploit. If most teams play a certain way now, develop a counter, and another for the few outliers that don’t. Nuge said once the PP has tons of plays they know. Still when they get tight they become really predictable and ineffective
I think they should have specific tactics against the PK and it’s style. When a team does one thing they are giving up another. To me that is different than what Nuge seemed to be talking about. Specific ways of getting the puck to the net quickly, I don’t see that. When they are on it’s more about high skill than changing their attack
Once in a blue moon we see teams execute a set play. Why don’t we see that more? Is hockey so random they can’t? I’m not sure that’s the case. I have wondered why forwards don’t copy what Messier and Anderson used to do driving the net. One behind the other and the lead would drive hard around the back of the net, and drop the puck back to the follower if the goalie started to move, and wrap it if he didn’t. Pretty hard to stop that
If teams are clogging middle ice figure something out to attack it differently, especially in the O zone. Trying to pass through the maze of players we see and it has a low success rate. All of this possible when you have the talent the Oilers do. Just need the coach with the vision, and a GM that gets it and goes and gets the type of players to support that
What is “the book” on Edmonton? How were Edmonton generating more shots from the blue paint last season? Why is zone more effective against us this season? Teams are better at it. Certainly – tired Hyman and Skinner and Arvidsson instead of Foegele have something to do with it. But the run to the cup drew a lot of attention on what works against Edmonton.
Undersized D:
Makar
Hughes
Fox
Karlsson
Hutson
The last four Norris Trophy winners:
Hughes
Karlsson
Makar
Fox
Hutson 5th in NHL D scoring but he’s only 21 and is likely the Calder Trophy winner this season.
They seem to come in real handy.
Great follow-up to Daniel’s post and that’s the key, how do you attack a team that clogs the middle of the ice. St. Louis did this well (clog the d-zone) when the won the cup, as did Vegas and Winnipeg is doing it really well this year.
It’s easier when you get out with speed and beat the defenders back. If you can get a middle line drive and get the d-to back up before the support arrives, there tends to be more success – and at the very least, better scoring chances.
Having forwards who can attack with speed (if you can’t get a 3 on 2) and scissoring when they cross the line is another tactic. Again, get the D to back up, put them on the “defensive” before they’re ready.
Most times though, it seems teams are more content to dump pucks in, get F1 and F2 in on a hard forecheck, or clog the neutral zone, hope there’s a bad pass and counter attack off that. Much more passive, much safer system.
!This is a really good read, well presented and looks to have significant merit when you view the Oilers struggles. Thank you
Love your posts Daniel!
Great post. Thank you!
Tableau God!
.
Has there been any update on Frederic’s health?
Most recent intel is he’s expected to be ready for, or before, the playoffs.
What are Drai’s MVP chances? He has missed some games but still leads in goals and is third in points.
Looks like a three-way race between LD, MacKinnon, & Hellebuyck.
I like Drai myself. I’m biased.
“Leon Draisaitl on the possibility of winning the Selke Trophy: That would be “almost more important than any other (individual) trophy at this point in time. Obviously, there’s been a lot of chatter about when we were younger that we can’t defend. And the reason we don’t win is because Connor and I can’t defend or don’t defend. And I think we’ve really changed that narrative around the league and especially the last couple of years. We’re both really, really good defenders when we want to be. I think it’s just the consistency part of doing it every night. And I think I’ve done that for the most part this year.”
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-montreal-electrified-by-stud-prospect-ivan-demidov/
Much better post than stanning for Kucherov who most publications/odds-makers have ranked 4th. 🙂
Woody’s refusal when they were 2-9-1 to revert back to the coverage that was successful cost him the dream job. He blew it I can’t see another G.M hiring someone that stubborn. Anyhow this is a vet team it can probably coach itself in saying that I wish coach K.K would give it to the Refs as we’ve become a punching bag. Kane-Frederic and even Walman have some nasty in them to deal with the slime on other teams and they can’t arrive soon enough. I would even make Clattenburg a black ace as that kid let’s it all hangout.
I don’t think they have found the coach that can tweak the system enough to suit the stars. Defense yes, but too much causes it’s own problems. This because once they started calling obstruction you can’t really clamp it down like the good old days
Teams that win Cups have low GA for sure, but they also score
Against anyone
When Skinner isn’t feeling it and needs a reset I wish coach K.K had a trigger finger like Keenan.
Steven Ellis sees David T (dude that led the Swedish league in scoring) as more of a 4C guy if he makes it. Doesn’t think recent offence will translate (but could chip in and move the lineup in a pinch). He’s a very good defensive center and good on face offs.
For me, he is a definitely on the outside looking in coming in to camp. Would need to steal a job.
From who? We don’t have a 4C
There is an NHL free agency season coming up.
I would suggest that the 29 year old being signed does not mean “forward slot locked in” for management.
We need a successful farm system anyone can fill a AHL team with Burt&Erne. Bowman started with Zip getting a Perrault and Jarventie were good moves even though that blew up. O’Reilly-Nicholl-Clattenburg-Samanski at least these kids can be developed but they need to be surrounded by the right veterans.
With Klingberg on LTIR is there any combination of the roster moves that would get Kane into the last one or two NHL games?
no
Edmonton Oilers past 12 game record is now 7-4-1 for 15 points total.
McDavid has had himself a beautiful 8 game rest, and last night was fully functioning spectacular in a way I haven’t seen since last season, or earlier.
My theory has always been that McDavid would rather die than go through another game 7 loss. That he’s got a bunch of the rest of the team’s stars ever so slightly dogging it in order so they can all get lots of beautiful rest before the playoffs begin.
The question is: In an end of season 16 game mini series, do you think the Oilers will end up with 20 points? So far they have 15 out of 12 which fits the bill perfectly.
If you think Oilers will get 15 points to end the season: press Thumbs Up
If not: press Thumbs Down
Thank you for your cooperation.
The wings used to be hell bent on winning the presidents trophy only to bow out in the playoffs, sometimes early. It’s a fools game to try win a cup in the regular season. Once they figured that out they started their cup run, if memory serves.
I think this version of the Oilers are more concerned about being ready for the playoffs than regular season placing. Regardless of where we start in the playoffs, we’ll be ready to thrash anyone that stands in our way.
Have been getting slaughtered for suggesting the team is internally preparing for the playoffs by taking sick leave right before they start.
But then I saw McDavid last night and he is playing better than I have seen him since those days when he’d go through the entire NY Rangers team to score.
McDavid using the phrase “when it gets real” last night. This team has been divided on playoffs and playoffs only for the regular season. The regular season has felt like a chore for them I think. Many fans as well.
Yeah I caught that too. It fed right into the copium narrative I’ve been using all year.
Its all about the playoffs I think starting on the road may be beneficial get a split or better in L.A-Vegas-Colorado-Toronto.
If Toronto makes the SCF, I’ll eat a pair of scissors.
Some of my best friends are Leaf fans. For them I would be ecstatic, and nothing imaginable would promote the league like a Toronto Maple Leaf cup.
In fact the 2 teams that scare me the most in the Finals are Toronto and Montreal. Oilers will be too hard to withstand the hype.
Both would be interesting to watch: Oilers w Leafs, you w scissors…
Still important to get as many points as possible out of these last 4 games.
LAK are still in sight, and a lot of other teams that Oilers would be better served opening at home against in case of playoff upsets(which seem to happen perpetually in the NHL).
If Pickard wins out on his starts I would hope he starts game one. Let’s face it Pickard is the definition of average yet this will be enough to beat L.A. Playoffs are not the time for feelings and bum pats. Pickard gives us a better chance to win then a tired looking Skinner.
I kind of figure we see Skinner against SJS, Picard against WPG, Skinner against LAK and then Pickard against SJS. Skinner starts game one. Win and you’re in.
I believe there’s only one thing that can sink us this playoff especially before Kane-Frederic-Leon-Ekholm-Walman are operating at full speed is sub 900 goaltending.
Usain Bolt said Mario Kart made him a champion. Todays copium has Edmonton following suit: they would rather head into the final lap in 5th position with full coins, triple red shell, and a golden mushroom than empty but in the poll position.
I love this.
lol true
Pickard certainly “making a case” and, if nothing else, I would think he’s given the coaching staff full confidence in going to him quickly if they want/need.
I keenly look forward to see how Stu plays in a couple regular season games coming up.
Might see Stu Friday night.
Nothing to look forward to, unless you want to see a goalie who NEVER leads the team by playing particularly well; and who can be counted on over say a 20 game stretch to produce at least 2-3 absolute howlers in goal that destroy each of the individual games right before they get started properly.
On the other hand he can be counted on to provide mediocre to good goaltending 12-15 games from those 20. In short he’s a perfect backup.
Skinner is the guy to go to when there is nothing to lose. He MIGHT come through and in that case it’s all good.
LOL
Getting a LOL out of you makes it a banner moment.
I also think from a hockey gods perspective, it’s better to get your quota of injuries/ PDO Ponying over with in the regular season.
Re: Walman — I imagine the Oilers have given up on the regular season and are just being super cautious with anyone remotely injured. Maybe this is wishful thinking.
If they have given up on the regular season McDavid probably wouldn’t have played last night. It seems home ice advantage is still in sight.
McD played so they didn’t have to ice 11 forwards and 5 D. Also to secure a playoff spot.
But at the same time they’re only going to play as hard as they need to. To win that is.
We needed the points last night we lose to St.Loo and Winterpeg and if the Flames would have won out we would of been in real playoff making trouble.
Of note, while Nuge was out due to illness, Walman wasn’t sick but dealing with a tweak.
Coach said he may play Friday but they also may give him an extra day or two. Not serious.
The lack of serious is making me serious!
We won’t really know until their playoffs are over who has what. I just hope they are hale enough to play well
.
Things are more serious in the playoffs.
Knobloch knows the deal. He wants guys healthy. He’s doing it right
Good enough game from Bouchard.
This is how it will work. Bad game from Bouchard gets my 500 word wrath. Good game gets a nominal acknowledgement.
LT mentioned confidence, I wonder if he gets more focused by playoffs and otherwise is prone to losing the plot
Dude should stay away from the internet in contract years
I would suggest it was a very good game.
Oilers dominated with him on the ice – little was given up.
I don’t fault him on the SH goal against.
His job was to take the pass and he didn’t do that… it’s ok, it happens. But if we’re paying 11 million that should be almost automatic, no?
We are paying less than 4.
No, I would suggest not.
I believe the likes of Miro H., Slavin, Makar, Doughty, every d-man fails to break up 2 on 1s, including via the pass across.
Exceptional game last night. I think he got lost on the, I believe, first goal against – backed in too much and the shot from the low slot ripped past Pickard but, overall, just a minute-munching warrior last night.
He’s not consistently at his peak – its not game in and game out – but that game is there this year (and in his “off games” the floor is not as low as it has been in past years).
I truly think that he hadn’t been healthy since he played through that torn hip flexor in the playoffs – He finally took the time he needed (remember he didn’t play exhibition games) and now he’s 100% and we are seeing who he is.
Nope, not $9.25MM but, truth be told, he’s been a, say, $8MM d-man this year?
Here is hoping we see this in the playoffs as he has NOT been good for multiple playoffs – health being the key factor I think.
Because cap rising his salary isn’t as egregious, but being tied for 44th in D scoring you’re right, still not quite covering that bet
Looking this up I noticed Bouch is tied for 4th with Hutson. Having the off year he has and Connor off as well which would hurt Bouch’s production, that is pretty impressive
He’s top ten 5v5 as well
26th for even strength scoring and, he’s shown in the past, that he can help out and contribute on a successful PP1 if Bouchard ever got hurt.
Pickard wins another game of mostly goalie, no matter how you slice it.
Arvidsson looking like he’s settling in, 10pts in last 11 playoff games against the Oilers. Great time to start feeling it.
Podkolzin keeps putting up those 5×5 points that others get Knighted for, Gladiator blood in that one.
Just another 3 point outing for McCaptain my Captain.
Coaches favorite Brown has some folks choking on their tongues.
This healthy Nurse is going to drive Kempe absolutely nuts.
He missed that handful of games post-break and I remember being so enthused as he looked to be prime-Ekholm in his first game back. Then the second game he was “just OK” and the third game was maybe his worst as an Oiler – he’s been out since.
I do have confidence that, with only three games in between two prolonged breaks, and they are clearly giving him as much time as he needs now, he might be damn close to 100% and FRESH.
That’s really just a presumption but its reasonable, if not probable – not in any way a lock though.
I hope to see him play on Friday.
Might see him next game. However there’s no reason to rush him back, unless Walman misses another game.
He’s been skating for a while now – since before the team went on the road.
If he’s ready, he’s ready, and the insiders have been projecting this week for both Ek and Connor.
He looked as dynamic on his skates as ever – that is, I saw no lingering effects from whatever was ailing him (core issue?). At the same time, Skinner took quite a few faceoffs and McDavid was 17% – perhaps not “fully strong”?
In any event, what a difference he makes and he looks, if nothing else, FRESH.
That’s the thing, all of Ekholm, Drai, Frederick and Kane should, if nothing else, be FRESH – that is the bumps and bruises and aggregate fatigue from the season essentially gone.
Resting for a game or two at the end of the season is one thing but 2, 3 (or more) weeks without games, well, that gives the body and mind some time to heal.
Skinner was 1/2 & McDavid was 3/18. So McDavid still took the majority of the faceoffs.
97 mentioned postgame the mental hurdle of playing in a game with what he’s dealing with and that he ‘can only do so many tight turns before you have to give it a shot’. Mission accomplished.
I think Frederic hit that point too, and it didn’t work out.
I also think it’s safe to say 97’s had a lingering injury that he’s been managing most of the year from the tone of that interview, but it could just be that he tweaked something against the Jets and didn’t know if it would hold up to rigorous game action.
Corey Perry, the wily vet getting into Binnington’s kitchen was classic Perry. He is an important ingredient for this Oilers team.One of the few that will stir things up physically for the Oil this year.
I hope the others are learning from the Sensei. Being irritating is a very valuable skill. It has more effect than fighting does. I remember how Sheehy could unhinge the entire Oiler team and get them right off their game
Agree, Matthew Tkachuck consistently being at the top of the leaderboard for penalties drawn tells you all you need to know about how valuable the agitator role is. With the quality of Edmonton’s power play, they should use any means necessary to draw more penalties out of the opposition. We know they won’t call holds an interference in open ice, but refs typically call retaliation fairly consistently
Pickard beat Binnington.
Pick has a higher 5v5 SV%
Good day Sunshine indeed. Vastly enjoyed that game after grumbling about recent feckless efforts (took me back to the days of Captain Corson). Watched the whole thing I did.
Can anyone who knows X’s and O’s tell me what happened in the last 20 seconds? The Blues just waltzed into our zone and basically had an uncontested pass into the slot and the shot was deflected just in time. Gotta clean that up before the playoffs!!
Right after that the Oilers waltzed into the Blues zone and basically had an uncontested pass into the slot but score the game winner. I guess they gotta clean that up before the playoffs!!
McDavid is a better passer than any player on the Blues!!
Prospectenacious!
The next round begins for 83.3% of the remaining NAmateurs.
The Frozen Four teams battle today as Copponi’s BU squad hopes to Terrierize Penn State. (T’other semi pits defending champs Denver vs. Western Michigan.) Copponi has scored in both FF games so far, two of his six goals on the year.
Round 2 commences in the OHL with London and Barrie retaining home ice.
Wakely went supernova in the opening round, ringing up 2 + 10 in the five-game series to lead the Colts. Combining his furious reg-season finish, he has 23 points (6 + 17) his last 11 GP.
Akey had a pair of assists in Round 1.
Meanwhile, the
WerewolvesKnights of London swept their way through the Sound of Owen, O’Reilly extending his point streak to 13 games, including 3 + 4 in the sweep.Nicholl has but an apple so far in the playoffs.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Copponi) @ 6:30 p.m.
All times are two times and are also Passburg time.
I’m very enthused about Wakely’s early post-season performance.
The regular season scoring for both Wakely & Akey was underwhelming. But looking at the Colts stat sheet, the scoring was quite spread out amongst the team, with no player standing out, save for maybe Aitcheson.
I wish the Oilers had a first to take Aitcheson. My money is on him to be a fine player in NHL for a long time.
Wakely should be dominant, being an overager.
And yes, Aitcheson is going to go 1st round for sure. Profiles as a smaller but more offensively talented Nurse.
Agreed on both.
I did note that Beau Jelsma, an overager on the Colts, who scored 3 points in 4 games with the WBS Penguins last season, has had similar offensive output to Wakely this season.
For those with access to ESPN2, both Frozen Four matches will be shown there.
Tried to verify Pick had a quality start with math. .909 5v5, sounds like quality to me.
I don’t generally trust things like Moneypuck so I compare it to NST.
By NST, HDCF were 12-3 Edmonton. Great! They don’t do medium danger but count scoring chances which the Oil also won 27-14. 14 scoring chances, 3 high quality with 3 against, sounds just okay, not amazing. 11/14 = 78.6%. Small numbers have big impacts.
Moneypuck says Pickard faced 7 medium danger, 0 high danger. Not saved, faced. So his expected goals against was something like 1.7 thus saved 1.3 below expected. Not a quality start by that definition.
For reference, the Oil had 1 high danger shot against Binner by their math.
Seems off, I suppose high danger is subjective, and posts play a factor, but this seems fishy or at least open to criticism.
Also, went off the rails and checked Stu’s xhighdanger against and actual:
Expected – 30.72
Actual – 16
Medium and especially low danger by their metrics show him lacking hard:
xMed – 33.57
Actual – 40
xLow – 32.08
Actual – 47(!)
I don’t think I really trust this and don’t know any real free sources for goalies so open to options. Maybe I’m just wrong and it wasn’t a quality start but Binner didn’t have one either so it all worked out.
I suspect the answer continues to be voodoo.
Public stats are a part of forming a balanced opinion, we don’t get the meaty stuff companies like Clear Sight Analytics produce, which is a shame. It would revolutionize again fan analysis the way Corsi once did
With goalies I think it is easier to make a fair assessment with the eye test, probably because they are stationary. If the are playing positionally sound, squaring up, reading the play so they can square up, not playing small in the net, that to me is a good game. Goals will still go in but not easy ones usually
It’s pretty easy to see, especially when those things are off and the goals start going in
Voodoo will always be it.
I think the word “expected” does some heavy lifting with these stats. They are a useful indicator, but ultimately, it is just an indicator.
Have to take them, like anything, with a grain of salt.
Based on some of the discourse around here, especially around goalies, some vocal posters are on a sodium-free diet regarding the numbers.
Ironic, considering how salty they can be.
Burn!
When you say expected high danger, are you saying goals we expect to be scored off of high danger chances? Then actual is what happened?
So stu looks good against tough shots, bad against easy shots?
That is the gist of it, yes.
I’m looking really skeptically at it though. The Pick numbers were all game states. MP said he faced 0 high danger shots.
Off the top of my head, if a 2 on 1 with a completed cross crease one timer for the shorty against isn’t dangerous I really don’t know what to say. If distance was the argument, the open rebound on the 3rd (?) goal against at the side of the net should have been dangerous imo.
I imagine further scrutiny from much smarter people could poke a lot more holes in it.
Morale of the story, don’t use moneypuck for gambling advice.
I think your NST numbers for Pickard are 5 on 5. Based on their definitions and the data they take off of the NHL site, the HD scoring chances were 13-7 in all game states. NST’s expected goals against for the game Pickard were 2.46. Pickard faced 4 high danger shots in all game states and stopped 2 of them and faced 6 medium danger shots against and stopped 5 of them. THE HDSC includes missed shots and blocked shots that don’t hit the net (including shots off the post cross bar). The detailed shot data I don’t think isn’t on the game sheet section, you have to go into the goalie stats and filter for one game to see it.
Looking into the short handed goal, Naturalstattrick has that as a high danger shot. It is hard to parse the 2 other goals since Naturalstattrick doesn’t give sufficient breakdown in its data to see which of the two goals was defined which way. However, looking at their definitions (borrowed from the old war on ice) they probably had the Kryou goal as a high danger shot based on its location 23 feet straight out in the slot and the Buchnevich goal as medium danger shot (the goal shot was taken from a location that NT rigidly defines as low danger, but would have bumped it a level because it occurred within 3 seconds of another shot event from the slot area.
At the end of the day, since both models (Moneypuck’s and NT’s) rely entirely on the public data provided by the NHL which does not yet provide a massive amount of info that would help understand how dangerous a chance is, neither is very accurate for assessing individual games or players. Still it is somewhat better than nothing at least to tell a small part of the story.
Yeah, I didn’t clarify all states was just for MP. I only honed in on MP for the analysis because NST looked like it was much truer to actual events (3 HDSC against 5v5 compare to 0 in all states).
Thanks for the response, I’m not as quick with NHLstats.
“Still it is somewhat better than nothing at least to tell a small part of the story.”
Wholly agree, there are some here and many in botland X that extrapolate mightily on available numbers. I was trying to match the eye test of Pickard playing a great game against some numbers saying he was below average and let in an entire goal more than he should have.
I’ve seen tweets tracking GSAA on Skinner to push a narrative. In MP’s case, the eye test matching bad numbers sounds correct, which is the same bias I’m showing with NST.
Hoy vey.
I liked McDavid’s comments after the game about the decision to play. Basically said the logic was since they were playing without enough players, he wouldn’t be bumping anyone else by giving it a go. Thought he’d try a few shifts and if it wasn’t right, shut it down. Obviously he felt good all night. But the team first thinking was what stood out to me. Much respect!
STL will add Parayko to the lineup (intel is Holloway won’t be ready for the playoffs).
The Oilers will likely add: Drai, Nuge, Ekholm, Walman, Frederick and Evander Kane – oh, and Stuart Skinner.
McDavid looks very fresh.
This roster is good.
Like LT stated, the goals from the net front were very welcomed. We haven’t done enough of that, this year. Normally our guys will stay to the outside, looking for a lane to receive a pass or to be a pylon for the puck carrier. We started to do it more when McDrai went down. I sure hope it continues as other teams do it against us often and are rewarded with screened goals, tips and rebounds. Arvi and Podz were in good spots to take advantage. We have guys, other than Hyman and Perry, who should be there. Kane, Freddy, and all bottom six guys. Even Janmark, who can’t shoot anymore, could tip or bat a puck in from the net front.
The pretty goals are nice but sometimes you gotta just put the puck towards the net and let the guys battle. Brown won the game, not from a great pass but from a pass to the net front and jamming away.
When we’re healthy, we have a very skilled team but we can still be gritty.
For sure. In most of the games they got ‘goalied’ it was to me mostly a lack of creating chances that had enough of a chance. A goalie doing his job isn’t stealing a game. Maybe it seems like that because many of us have so little trust in our goalies, expecting any shot to have as much of a chance of going in as a save being made
They were playing on the perimeter (except Perry which is why he is outscoring his TOI) and feeding the point with no traffic and the D still shooting it. That is the lowest percentage play there is. I think Yost pointed this out a while back
Very encouraging couple of games that way, I hope they can keep it going. It’s how you score off the cycle in the playoffs. As for Hyman, even though he goes to the net, I don’t find he is really that great at it. Playing with Connor he’ll get some tap ins and he does score pretty well, but he doesn’t screen enough, he likes to stand at the side of the net mainly.
I don’t feel he gets open enough in front as Brown did last night when someone else is taking the puck behind the net. I think he could help the line produce more as a group. I commented last year after tallying things up that even when he scored 54 the line only produced 3 extra goals, they just traded who got them. I think Connor is limited by his wingers, there’s more there. He should watch Perry more, they all should he’s so good at those things
Good point. Hyman only scored 54 goals last year. You should ring him up and let him know. 😉
Re Hyman standing at the side of the net; that’s the spot where McDavid does his bank shots. Off Hyman and in.
I wasn’t following the thread last night, and I’m sure it was likely talked about, but that sequence of reffing leading up to the Blues short handed goal might be close to the worst I’ve seen. Now that’s saying something. Just unbelievable
And both infractions plain as day. I’m not a conspiracy guy but what the heck?
And after Edmonton scored the games winner with 19.7 seconds remaining the referee’s were shown all shaking their heads. LOL.
What if we let gambling into every last corner of the sport? Hows that for an idea?
Don’t like to gamble.
What an encouraging game that was. McDavid looked as good as he has all year. Nurse and the rest of the dmen really stepped up. Great to see. The only negative for me was the Henrique line was getting fed out there, albeit much of it against the excellent Thomas line.
I actually thought Rico did a good job on the defensive side. He was in the right spot most of the time and helped the defenders repeatedly. Tough job to shut down their top line but he was working hard and smart, imo.
I’m still in the pessimistic camp approaching the playoffs, but it was certainly a pleasure to wake up this morning and see the box score. The first period did not give off the vibes of that kind of win.
I agree about the officiating (from what I saw in the first). It is now clear what will happen over the next 2 months from the zebras and I will lower my expectations to match.
Connor is still the best in the game, and we are fortunate to be able to watch him game in and game out.
Got to keep the faith.
That was a really entertaining hockey game, especially that raucous 3rd period. That top line for STL was absolutely humming and with key contributors missing on both sides (would suggest we were missing more), that still was a heckuva game with plenty of emotion.
The refs pooped the bed until the very end when they let the Nurse play go and it turned back the other way. I think it was a clean play and didn’t disrupt a scoring chance but the way they were calling it could’ve gone either way. Game managed an entertaining ending so mission accomplished according to Gary.
Quality start from Pickard, which is all you can ask for.
29, 28 and 28 minutes for Kulak, Nurse and Bouchard, respectively. Well done men!
The officiating the last few games has been horrendous… gonna be a long spring. Not sure if anyone else was thinking about this last night…
51.3 Match Penalty – If, in the judgment of the Referee, a goalkeeper uses his blocking glove to punch an opponent in the head or face in an attempt to or to deliberately injure an opponent, a match penalty must be assessed.
The three minute sequence after the patented Binnington spazz out was comically bad officiating.
Alas, big win for the guys, we move!
97 was flying, loved him with Skinner & Brown.
Pickard is their best goalie this season.
Whether he’s their “number one” is up to the coach, but those acting like the Oilers are missing their appropriate starter in net right now, as most of the talking heads are doing, is inaccurate.
It should be his net. Full stop.
Maybe the oilers should just commit to alternating goalies in the spring. Teams do it all year then try to run the same guy for 20 straight games in the spring. Makes no sense.
They will need both goalies during the playoffs.
Oh yeah, full stop.
I very much look forward to how Skinner plays in a couple of games he’s likely to get prior to the playoffs.
When Drai returned, and now McDavid, you forget how good they are. If think even opposing teams do too. Good Lord, a joy to watch. And as with all great players, he elevates all around him. I was starting to go ‘meh’ on the version of this team. Until he returned. Now the hope that was bubbling under is starting a flood. If this is the shape of things to come, Lord help the Kings. There’s maybe 6 quality players returning and they are hungry…