Connor McDavid is inevitable. Even when his performance is off, you’re never far from super nova. I’ve been worried most of the year about 97’s five-in-five goal share. In February he was 2-13, 13 percent. That’s impossible for the world’s best player and yet it happened just this way. McDavid-Bouchard was 1-5 that month, McDavid-Ekholm 0-8 and McDavid-Draisaitl 2-5 that month. Hey-Zeus.
However, in the last nine games, McDavid is 16-3, 84 percent. Music! What a ridiculous hockey player.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
- On the road to: VEG, SJS, LAK, ANA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: STL, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-1, 11 points in 9 games
- April result: 4-2-0
- Current record: 46-28-5, 97 points in 79 games
The Oilers have recovered nicely since the February elevator shaft, and it cannot have been easy. Injuries, and those who were playing at less than 100 percent, but the playoffs have been secured.
This has been the weirdest season in memory, I still don’t have a handle on this hockey club. I think they could win it all, lose a heartbreaker to the Jets in the semifinals or lose to the Kings in the first round. The gap between ceiling and floor is the largest I’ve ever seen in a true Stanley Cup contender (untrue, but no one remembers the 1970 Montreal Canadiens).
IT’S EKHOLM
Jason Gregor tweeted a response from Kris Knoblauch about Hyman/Ekholm not being ready for the postseas: “It is a possibility with one of those guys. Will need to talk to the doctor.” I believe it’s Ekholm, based on the fact he played so few minutes in the game. I’m not going to rant about this, but have been worried about the “everyone will get back before the end of the season” verbal from the Oilers. The vagueness of the organization in regard to injury is a tell. It means there’s something in the individual details management doesn’t want to see the light of day. I get it. I understand. I also think it’s completely fair to fade the Oilers playoff chances based on the lack of details about a player like Ekholm. It also informs us re: Walman’s acquisition. He was clearly insurance, at least a little bit.
THE NUMBERS
Connor McDavid’s new linemates are quite the deal, folks. In 26 minutes five-on-five, they are 2-0 goals and 72 percent expected goals. I think the line might see some playoff minutes. That would allow Nuge-Hyman a chance to outscore five-on-five from the third line (if that’s the route chosen). Kudos to Jeff Skinner, who has clearly reached the redemption portion of his season story.
Noah Philp is faster than he was earlier in the season (wrote about it here) and I do think he has a chance to see some playoff action. I don’t see Matt Savoie getting post-season time, but for me he’s earned it. Does Cam Dineen get the Jets tomorrow?
5 or 6 games and done; too many injuries, too little depth especially on defence
It is quite possible that by the time the puck drops tomorrow night in Winnipeg, the Jets will have nothing left to play for in the regular season and maybe they follow suit resting key players in each of their last 2 games (Oilers then Ducks on Wednesday). Especially since tomorrow is a back to back with them playing in Chicago tonight.
A win tonight for the Jets clinches both the Central Division and the Western Conference assuring them home ice through the Conference Finals if they go that far. If Dallas doesn’t win in regulation against Utah tonight – same result even if Winnipeg loses. Winnipeg will likely want to make sure of it tonight themselves if they can, since if they are caught by Dallas (who would hold the tie breaker if they win out in regulation), the Jets would have to face Colorado.
Hard to say if the Jets care enough about the President’s trophy and guaranteed home ice throughout the playoffs, but Washington, the only team that could still catch them doesn’t seem to care. Washington is locked into the Eastern Conference regular season crown, and they mailed it against Columbus today. If Winnipeg wins tonight, the President’s trophy will almost already be theirs as Washington would have to win out in regulation (including the rematch against Columbus tomorrow) to have a mathematical chance.
Hard to say who will suit up for the Oilers tomorrow night, but they still have an outside shot at 2nd by winning out (including beating LA in regulation) and getting some help from Seattle and Calgary (who still have a tiny possibility of something to play for by then), since Colorado isn’t helping today. Also jumping over Colorado in the standings would be a small help just in case those 2 teams get through to the Conference Final though managing health would be far more important that worrying about that game.
We cannot use those who “might return for playoffs” in starting line up predictions. If they could only make it just for game one, they are likely far from 100% healthy, otherwise they would be dressed for a warm up game. Massive concern
Have to build a roster around who is available. The maybes are out. Ekholm, Kane, Frederic – they would play if they could but you know they will push it and thus not be 100%. Draisaitl the exception in that 80% is still awful good, and he can walk into playoffs. Even Skinner post concussion has to be only pencilled in.
Dam shame.
This also means Pickard must get filled with confidence and next men up must get ready. Philp, Jones, and Dineen and Savoie must play.
Lots of patience waiting on the recoveries but now, the back up plan has to be ready.
Next man up mentality.
Sounds bad for Ekholm.
Per Rishaug, more tests are being done but it may be a serious injury that ends his season.
Serious groin injury – he tore the muscle off the bone. Needs surgery
Where did you hear this?
You can think it was his groin the way he was skating off the last time
Mark Spector with a rundown of all the Oilers injuries.
Sounds like none of Ekholm, Frederic or Kane will be available for the first round.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/playoff-bound-oilers-cant-catch-a-break-with-injuries-our-luck-has-run-out/?__vfz=medium%3Dconversations_top_pages
Ah yes, Mark Spector, a sterling reporter with exemplary credibility.
Of course his thoughts on Frederick not playing in the first round were his opinion – not from management or coaching.
His thoughts on Kane are also not from coaching or management – simply that he hasn’t heard he’ll be able to play early in the playoffs – not that he’s heard the opposite.
Your “statements of a fact” are no honest representations of what Spector wrote.
Not that Stauffer is the be all/end all. But in the convo with Bowman on the pre-game last night, he seemed to indicate Frederic might not be available for Game 1 or 2 depending on the schedule. He did not indicate he’d be out for the first round.
So Specs thoughts are exactly that, his thoughts. Not managements.
Bowman did say that Kane is skating well, but was not doing any contact. So it would seem he’s a little further away as that would be the next progression in return to play.
Heard from a reliable source today that Ekhom is done for the season. No playoffs. Torn muscle in his groin, needs surgery. Tough pill to swallow.
What’s the source?
his wife
I sure hope not. Too bad if true.
Agreed. Brutal news.
Confirmed above by Spector.
You don’t care about facts at all, do you?
There is no confirmation of anything in Spector’s article.
And, the only commentary on Ekholm was repeating the quote from Knoblauch, that one of Ekholm or Hyman might not be ready for the start of the playoffs, and Spector suspects that will be Ekholm.
Colorado not doing the Oilers any favours tonight as the Avalanche are sitting 5 regulars including MacKinnon, Makar, Drouin, Colton and Lindgren in their game against the Kings.
Doughty and Edmondson out for the Kings.
Likely the Avalanche will sit them again tomorrow when they wrap up the regular season against the Ducks.
For MacKinnon, Drouin and Lindgren, Bednar is reporting they are all dealing with various injuries and that it is not just for rest purposes. Perhaps they would go if it was a playoff game tonight, but they wouldn’t be 100%.
Yeah…nursing minor ailments but a week off should help.
A nagging ailment might explain MacKinnon not playing that well since mid March with only 14 points in 14 games (sub standard for him by a fair bit) and an on ice 5v5 goal share of 47%.
Now that their position is largely set (only home ice if they get through to the Conference Final is still uncertain), they want him as healthy as possible for the playoffs (sound familiar?).
If he was largely healthy (no one is 100% at this point in the year), he would not have wanted to go at least 11 days between games.
Speaking of load management…Washington started 29 year old depth goaltender Hunter Shephard who has started only 4 NHL games to his credit.
It did not go well…Columbus 7 Washington 0
On Friday, Michigan State forward Isaac Howard was named the 2025 recipient of the Hobey Baker Memorial Award as the best player in the NCAA.
He’s a Lightning prospect picked 31st overall in 2022.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/lightning-prospect-isaac-howard-wins-2025-hobey-baker-award
Apparently the Lightning are having some trouble signing him.
You must be suggesting that the Oilers should try to swoop in and sign him, and that’s why you’re posting about a Lightning prospect on an Oilers blog.
I agree, would be a great add for the Oilers 🙂
It seems Tampa will trade his rights at the draft.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/lightning-face-decision-with-top-prospect-isaac-howard/
Nice!
He is not eligible to be a UFA until he completes his 4th year in the NCAA.
I imagine Tampa will be looking for a first round pick for his rights since they don’t have one for the next three drafts.
Very cool!
Oilers signed Samuel Jonsson to his 3-year ELC.
He was goalie of the year in Allsvenskan.
I presume he’ll come to camp but maybe head back to Sweden as opposed to the ECHL? Probably would be good to get a season in the SHL?
Very heartening news after his fantastic season. Hope Berezkin is next once his season ends, at least Stan is trying on him too.
I think that’s close to a lock – I don’t think Stauff would have asked Bowman about Berezkin last night without knowledge that its going to happen. Similar, I think that silence on Munzenburger is equally telling.
I would think another year overseas would be appropriate.
Even if Delia walks at year’s end, there’s still Skinner and Pickard on the Oil, then Rodrigue and one of Ungar, Day and Brochu in the A, with the other two in Fort Wayne.
If Brochu signs, right?
He’s on an AHL deal and I think he’s an “NHL UFA”, right?
Thanks for the update, OP!
Rumors over here is that he’s also close to signing with Färjestad in the SHL with the idea that he comes to Edmonton for camp. If he makes the NHL team he stays, obviously. If he doesn’t he goes back to Sweden and the SHL by the terms of the agreement between the NHL and the SHL.
Färjestad just signed two goalies, veteran Emil Larmi who’s clearly intended as the #1 goalie, and youngling Melker Thelin who’s highly regarded as a goalie for the future, but the rumour still kinda makes sense because Thelin could easily be loaned to Hockeyallsvenskan if Jonsson doesn’t make the NHL roster, which ofc is highly unlikely, Jonsson is on a steep trajectory the last year and goalies are goalies but that would be a massive leap from Hockeyallsvenskan to NHL.
There’s a risk of Jonsson at least starting the season as Färjestad’s back up if this rumour is true, Larmi is a high end vet, so it might not be an ideal situation but on the other hand he’d have a great mentor, the SHL is a good step for Jonsson and Färjestad have a pretty solid goalie coach so it could certainly work out.
Derek & the Dominos, Nice. Great song
I found Cam Dineen’s audition encouraging.
Be interesting to see if he can sustain that level of play or if he was running on adrenaline (like Max Jones’ first game vs the rest).
He’s no Kesselring but if he can deliver that level of intelligent puck play and positioning, that’s a valuable depth piece.
I thought Max Jones played great last game, awesome rush to the net. At the moment he is essentially an AHL’er but has filled in quite admirably with all the injuries
I thought he played very well. I don’t watch Condors however, but when he played with Oilers he covered a lot of ice and touched the puck often.
I recall him being very noticeable in his 1 game – confident with the puck (as he is in the AHL).
He was also directly responsible for one goal against (although I believe the pass put him in a touch situation).
I’ve watched him alot in the AHL and there remains alot of chaos in his game.
He is indeed depth and, unfortunately, with Ekholm looking out for a while, he’s bumped up to 7D I think.
Dineen and Ryan recalled.
As I said last night, I imagine none of the day to day type players are heading to Winnipeg for one game.
I think McDavid would have stayed being if they had more healthy bodies.
Ryan up has no effect on the Condors as, instead of heading to help them when he was re-assigned a number of weeks back, he never reported and collected his $900K for a break. Yes, I’m bitter. I love Derek Ryan but I’m bitter – even if this was blessed by the org. The org was in need.
I thought players had to report once assigned?
Connor Brown making a case for McDavid’s left wing if/when Hyman not available.
Not ideal, and we know he can go ice cold with the hands – but he can also forecheck, help create and the hands can show up in short stretches.
i am making a case for Brown because he never really has got a chance. His minutes with the oilers are way lower then average career. maybe hes finally comfortable; and knows hes gonna get chances with Mcdavid
Wow who saw that coming! Brown has actually looked quite good last few games with Connor.
The results of Skinner & Brown with 97 are very encouraging. I think that line makes a lot of sense with their complimentary skill sets.
JS-CM-CB
VP-LD-VA
TF-RNH-ZH
Are three very well balanced lines.
Jeff Skinner is going to the playoffs!!!
Now watch him get injured and miss the rest of the year.
From two games, Noah Philp has been more responsible than Adam Henrique, who is leaking goals again.
QoC likely a factor.
Encouraging but again it’s only been two games
McDavid looks as fresh as he has in two years. Peak McDavid racks up points seemingly in 2nd gear, and that is what we’ve seen the last two games. Shift after shift he creates. This player is inevitable as LT says.
I believe that Drai will be similar. Being held out longer than required because there is no reason not to. I think we’ll see him at the peak of his powers and FRESH.
Yes, big concern about Ekholm but we’ll see where we get to. Maybe he’s not ready for game 1 but maybe he’ll be ready for round 2? We don’t know but we are looking for a 2-month run.
A positive is that Darnell Nurse is healthy and near the top of his game. We have not had that the last two playoffs. Not even close. Add good Nurse and Walman and that helps off set while Ekholm continues to rehab.
The situation is less than ideal but I still believe this team can play in mid to late June.
With three games to go, Oilers have now picked up 17 out of 13 games played in my Hunter1909 end of season Oiler’s mini-season.
20 points total gives them a nice momentum entering the playoffs.
Hmmm…McDavid has 7 points in the last 2 games since he’s returned to the team following his vacation.
If you think Oilers are getting 20 points entering the playoffs, press Thumbs Up.
otherwise, press thumbs down.
Thank you for your cooperation.
I have been sprinkling healing crystals around ice district all week.
I don’t know about Jinner, imagine when the coaches look at the sheets and see that he has 0 points and 1 shot in 2 games while Brown 3 goals and 9 shots with McDavid having 7 points.. They may view you as a replaceable weak link.
The coaching staff look at way more detail than just the score sheet. They review detailed video of every player and note all contributions to the flow of play in both directions.
A player can make a significant contribution to a goal or scoring chance by providing a screen or even just being an available passing option to distract the defenseman or goalie’s attention. In the defensive zone, being in the right place or covering your check well could consistently negate scoring opportunities with no game sheet stats being recorded.
In direct support of your point:
In the replay of Emberson’s goal you can see that Skinner makes a quick cut into the slot and pulls the defender away from the net, directly opening the lane for McDavid to make the pass across to Emberson.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/sjs-edm-emberson-scores-goal-against-georgi-romanov-6371385094112
Of course, I think the coaches will look at more that the official game sheet and (1) their eyes and (2) more nuanced date re: contributions to scoring chances, etc. – both will show Skinner very effective last night and over a stretch.
What would the coach’s imagine when they look at the game sheets re: Janmark?
SharksvOil was the best choice to trial Ekholm readiness. McDavid is leading the Oilers next generation core and they are working hard to stay in the line-up come playoffs. The list includes right shot center Philp, forechecker Podkolzin, Nurse’s defence partner Emberson, McDavid’s playoff goal scoring record holder Bouchard, starting goaler Skinner and eventually be joined by Frederic.
“Next generation core” as you describe includes McDavid (28), Stuart Skinner and Noah Philp (26), Evan Bouchard (25). Podkolzin (23) and Emberson (24) are a stretch as ‘next gen’ imo.
Next gen Oilers? Matt Savoie, Sam O’Reilly, Beau Akey.
Savoie, O’Reilly and Akey may be a future generation core however for the next playoff run the Oilers will go as far as their mid-twenties next generation cohort will grow and carry them.
This team will be carried by McDavid-Draisaitl age group, say 25 (Bouchard) at the young end and Ekholm (34) at the older end. That’s ‘peak years’ (25-28) and ‘veterans division (30+) imo. The future generation isn’t in Edmonton.
Hard to imagine a deep run if Ekholm is less than 100%. Unfortunately.
Even without Ekholm, I would say that our defense matches up with most playoff teams reasonably well. unfortunately, that should have been one of our strengths as well as the forward group, presuming the depth continues to shine through.
Basically, a lot of things would have to go right, including solid play from our goaltending and the forward group putting it all together in a hurry. And if Walman is not back to 100%, the task becomes extremely challenging
Also worried about the power-play not playing together for weeks and the penalty kill without Ekholm (although they are 87% in the last 20 games)
Well, he’s gone it seems.
It certainly makes it harder but its not as fatal as it would have been last year for a few reasons:
1) Darnell Nurse of the last playoffs was hurt and ineffective and often a liability. Nurse is finally healthy and is a very good 2-way dman.
2) Jake Walman.
Prospectotality!
It’s a “Saturation” Saturday with all six remaining NAmateurs in action.
Matt Copponi’s amateur career ends today as the Frozen Four final concludes the NCAA season. If he can go out a champion, he will become the third Oilers prospect in four years to win the NCAA title, joining Carter Savoie (Denver, ’22) and Skyler Brind’Amour (Quinnipiac, ’23). Neither of t’other two are in the org anymore; will a similar fate befall Copponi? We wait.
London and Barrie both seek a 2-0 advantage in their respective series. O’Reilly is the proud owner of a 14-game point streak while Nicholl hasn’t scored since his hatty in the regular season finale.
Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law got the job done in Game 1 with two assists and a goal respectively.
Berry and the Muskegonians are tied for 3rd in their conference, a point back of 2nd and two of 1st. If Madison and Dubuque both lose in reg and Muskegon wins, they are guaranteed a bye in the opening round.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5:30 p.m.
Boston University (Copponi) @ 5:30 p.m.
All times are two times and are also McLaughlin time.
The 82 game season is a marathon especially for the older guys (unless it’s contract year) we could of used a couple more Podkolzin grunts to do the leg work. The Ekholm injury hurts the most hopefully Walman can deliever with the heavy minute workload. With our injuries does a average Pickard beat L.A or do you go with the erratic Skinner for game one?
Pickard gives you consistency.
Skinner gives you a goalie who has proven already he cannot be trusted to simply not turn up and blow games. When was the last time Skinner stole a game? Never?
Besides game 6 against Dallas no other game comes to mind. Hopefully Skinner can come in refreshed if Pickard falters.
You know, it is possible to compliment one guy for what he has been providing and also remember what the other guy has accomplished and is capable of. They have both stolen games this season and we need them both.
This.
You have been making wild and false statements about these goalies for a bit now.
Skinner has stolen a higher percentage of his starts than Pickard this season – per the models that calculate these things.
Recentcy bias is a thing.
My guess is we can’t count on Ekholm or Frederic to be in the game one lineup. Or count on them playing significant minutes if they do get in. I’d go
53 97 28
92 29 33
91 93 18
13 19 90
96 2
25 27
51 49
30
74
Sub in 48 for 13 and we have a line up that can score top to bottom. 13 suppresses offence at both ends of the ice imo.
Yeah, I agree and wouldn’t mind that change at all. Gets us a right shot face off man in the line up as well. I just don’t see the coach doing it though
Be lucky if either of them play at all or more than 1 game
Good game. They let SJ get back into it. I know Henrique is slow and uses his smarts to be where he’s supposed to, but he got suckered on that first goal. This isn’t Nurse bashing as I think he’s has his best season but I saw him bad last night. 2 awful giveaways and boxes out of the blue paint for the second goal. But he had his offensive wheels on, so some sort of dubious balance?
Both McDavid and Drai are noticeably other worldly upon their return. LT is right, I don’t have a handle on the team, but it’s the deepest squad for… I don’t know.
No injuries against the Jets or Kings, who’d love to take a chunk out of a potential playoff rival.
Yup, Rico has been leaking goals recently and he needs to lock down his details more – in particular given the lack of speed.
At the same time, that first goal last night was a grade D shot that should never go in.
Bouchard with 66 points and +14, having a very good year despite the odd giveaway
Agreed he is talented offensively. However it is a bit more than the “odd” giveaway. Quite shocking how often he gets beat wide by opposing forwards. Hopefully we see less of that in the playoffs.
Agreed, but a offensively gifted right shot defenseman in the NHL is rare. People who are always dumping on him and or want him traded don’t have much hockey IQ imo.
They gloss over him being essentially the same as Makar and Fox and other top offensive D. When Makar makes those same mistakes, it doesn’t get nearly as much attention.
Oh I wouldn’t trade him! Very valuable guy but his defensive lapses can be alarmingly bad.
Way too many giveaways but he almost always outperforms his mistakes.
“None has ever reached Valhalla with cowardice in their heart.” – Norse Proverb
Didn’t it used to be in downtown Grande Prairie? I’m not a coward, but I was little apprehensive.
“You cannot reach the sky with broken cleats.” – Normie Kwong’s mother, so I’m told.
“No one has performed a drum solo, with broken sticks” – Gene Krupa’s Mom
Neal Peart was a master at replacing broken drumsticks mid solo (and a master at everything else drum related)! Krupa’s Mom probably never saw Rush.
“Only a ninja can stop a ninja”. – random guy in a kung fu movie… about ninjas.
A lot of people fail to pick up the bread crumbs put down including many of the top pundits. Rishaug, Brown and Strudwick couldn’t understand why Bouchard and Walman were playing so much together a few weeks ago. It seemed obvious to me that if the plan was Nurse/Walman they would have played them together. And if that wasn’t the plan then why not? Only obvious answer is that the 25 minute version of Ekholm is gone for the season at least.
The only question left to answer is whether he can play 3LD with Stech and kill some penalties.
I think Ekholm-Emberson was the top choice 1PK unit earlier this year, no?
If the top-4 can play to their potential, that pairing could be part of an amazingly effective shut-down bottom-6 fivesome reminiscent of those great Chicago cup winners.
Also like seeing hard-to-play-with McD elevate the play of everyone around him since he’s come back.
Liking what I’ve seen of Philip during this second cup of coffee.
He even made Jones look like a capable player last night. Speed, defensive awareness, smart offensive plays. He did it all.
and Kap has been prominent – its a been a very good trio in sheltered minutes through 2 games.