For much of the season, the Edmonton Oilers experience has been much like little Ziggy here in the photo. My daughter bought this bed for her because Ziggy likes to be snug in her bed and the old one had “relaxed” like an old pair of jeans. Mostly the dog sleeps in it happily, but as you see in this photo there are moments when urban sprawl makes for an uncomfortable look. For the Oilers, same.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
On the road to: VEG, SJS, LAK, ANA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
At home to: STL, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
On the road to: WPG (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
On the road to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
Overall expected results: 5-3-1, 11 points in 9 games
April result: 6-3-0
Current record: 48-29-5, 101 points in 82 games
The Oilers hit 100 points again, that’s a fine accomplishment and one of the bullet points on this team’s resume (along with the SCF appearance and a few other things). We don’t know what we don’t know about this season, and the odds do not favor this club finding all the answers, but there are good things on this roster and legit hope for the journey ahead.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner didn’t get much work, but he stopped everything sent his way and I always give goalie props for a shutout. He was strong early in the game, when the Oilers were chasing like jackals after a mongoose with little positive impact. Once they settled down, Skinner had an easier time. Suspect he starts Game 1, we’ll see.
Connor McDavid hit the 100-point mark, in a most unusual season. I imagine there’s a great deal of satisfaction in it after all that has come his way during 2024-25. I really like his new kickass line, hope we see it in the playoffs.
I thought Ty Emberson had a good game, and that’s a good thing because he needed it. The lack of any news on contract talks lately have me wondering if he returns next season, but he is a young player with a future. Edmonton doesn’t have many of those. He had a wild time with Cam Dineen last night, everything came up brilliant. He should not play with Josh Brown, though.
Nice to see Max Jones score, and for young Quinn Hutson to play in a normal game.
WORRIES
As the Oilers enter the postseason, I am generally positive about the current state of the team. I am worried about injury and about the lack of credible information in regard to Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm and Jake Walman. We last saw Draisaitl two weeks ago, 10 days for Walman, a week for Ekholm. We know Ekholm will miss the first round at least, but no idea why. If the other two appear in Game 1, music! However, the goal at one time was to have everyone play a game before the end of the season. Didn’t happen. We wait.
On the Lowdown today (noon, Sports 1440) we’ll look at the playoff roster, lines and pairings and talk about those injuries. We’ll also rave about the Blue Jays and Declanations from Declan Krueger will hit a day early. Feature guest: Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
With Carolina’s loss tonight, the Oilers will have home ice in a SCF against the Canes.
For as trying as this season has been, the Oilers finished ninth in the league.
This is good news.
Next: Oilers open against the Kings with a 100% firing on all cylinders lineup.
Not to be a downer, but I put the Oilers’ chance of getting past the first round at 40%, past second round at 10%.
wobbly goaltending, too many injuries, and very mediocre play since the 4Nations tourney.
I’ll reminisce about that fun win streak in the middle of the season though.
cheers.
NHL.com just posted an article where 13 of 16 writers picked LA over EDM. Hope they’re posting it on the board, next to Danault’s ugly mug
I am worried about this series. But I am every year. I would be far more worried about winning if we traded rosters and had to play against McD and Drai, and the rest of our guys.
Sportsnet had like 9/10 for Dallas and i think the Athletic was a clean sweep last year.
These analysts honestly and truly know absolutely nothing.
Zach Hyman was reportedly second in the league in high danger shots at 125. Only 4 behind Anders Lee despite missing games. Hopefully that bodes well
107 hours and 6 minutes till the Oilers ice the best forward group since 86. L.A-Kuemper and that bitch Ferrell won’t know what hit them after we take both games in hostile surroundings
Happy Easter to all Lowetide readers.
I’m cheering big time for an upset from the Vegas v Wild series. Oilers are desperate to not have to open on the road 4 straight times against rested and waiting opposition. Statistically it’s nearly never been done.
Give Oilers home ice in 2006 and 2024 and suddenly in April 2025 they’re a defending champion with 7 cups total.
Launch MAB from a cannon in 2006 and we also get a cup that year.
Summarizing!
O’Reilly was in on all four London goals and scored the OT winner as the Knights finished the sweep. He had 2 + 2 on the night and 6 SOG, extending his point streak to 17 games. His 15 points (5 + 10) already exceeds last year’s playoff output (12 in 16 GP).
Wakely also scored twice but in a losing cause as the series is now tied at 2. He has 5 + 12 in nine playoff games.
Nicholl and Akey were not resoupients.
Prospecting takes a break until Saturn’s Day.
O’Reilly-Nicholl-Clattenburg the new regime is going to have a draft to remember.
O’Reilly jamming home the series clincher.
None of the opening series appear easy for any of the higher seeds – LA/EDM included. Do you think LA is happy about playing Edmonton again? I doubt it.
Getting out of the first round is a challenge for any team, especially this year in the NHL. I think this series will be a battle. But if the Oilers can get through it I think they have as good of a shot as any team this year.
Let’s go Oilers!
For your reading enjoyment…
regular season records bertween first round opponents…
WPG 2 RW 1RL 1 SO/OT W, 6 pts in 4 games over STL
COL 1 RW 1 RL 1 SO/OT W, 4 pts in 3 games over DAL
VEG 3 RW, 6 pts in 3 games over MIN
LA 2 RW 1RL 1 SO/OT W, 6 pts in 4 games over EDM
OTT 3 RW, 6 pts in 3 games over TOR
TB 2 RW 2 RL 4 pts in 4 games over FLA
WAS 2 RW 1 SO/OT W, 6 pts in 3 games over MTL
CAR 2 RW 2 RL , 4 pts in 4 games over NJ
While I love a good upset, particularly when a Canadian team beats a favoured American team, I don’t think MTL has a snowball’s chance in a microwave of beating WAS. OTT could surprise and take out TOR, which wouldn’t exactly break my heart. TB/FLA and CAR/NJ should be well matched series. The East looks interesting this year to me.
I am not giving MIN a chance to take out Vegas, no matter how much I woyuld love to see it! SImilar for STL over WPG – it would really shake tings up but WPG should take first round without a hiccup.COL/DAL and EDM/LA will be darn fine series I think.
Washington has come out of nowhere, while Montreal has got a tradition par excellence of playing in the first round like demons?
As playoffs always turn up upsets everywhere in round one…I’m going for the dark team from B+W television times.
I have about the same confidence level that the Oilers will win the Stanley Cup as I do that they will lose in the first round in 4-5 games. A thoroughly flat expectation profile to start.
Ha. Ya. I get it
— I dig this.
— if they lose in 4-5 games in 1st round it’s because everyone not healthy and/or re-injured.
— if they win the cup it’s because everyone comes back healthy guys that didn’t play in season at all or little go off and team gets stronger as playoffs go on as a bunch of rusty guys get into playoff shape and no re-injuries
— we don’t know what we don’t know and won’t until we do. Just our biases and pre conceived notions and degrees of hope, despair optimism or pessimism
I’m 100% from the “they’ve been dogging it” camp.
I fully expect them to open with Evander Kane and Darnell Nurse threatening to chop off the King’s heads, while Connor and Leon continue to effortlessly dazzle on the scoresheet.
Following this line of thought I can see Corey Perry providing a duel role in this upcoming event.
I don’t know that McD was dogging it. But he’s been much more himself lately. This alone can turn a series.
While in no way can any of it be proven…
The good news:
McDavid won’t be exhausted if he makes the finals.
Where’s your Blues injury update is Hollywood and Thomas going to suit up for the first game?
Because of all the uncertainty, I would go opposite many suggestions and go full throttle with the first line.
Leon – Connor – Zack
Nurse – Bouchard
Please give me two goals.
Everyone else just hold the fort, break even. Really, really, try to grab game one by the end of the first period, then lock it down. Give the team a chance to get up to speed. Winning game one would be a massive mental boost. Game two coach could assess injuries, look at pairings and spread out the lines.
I am certain this will happen if we’re down a goal halfway through game 1.
Guess let’s hope we don’t ever trail?
It’s not popular, but due to unknowns, I suggest go for it right out of the gate.
Put up goals asap, don’t wait.
We have no idea what Kane, Frederic will bring. What about Skinner? Will Dineen be playing? New lines.
Taking game one in LA massive advantage.
Most of the data is of course in, so I’ll put up some info for Power Wins etc, a few seemed interested. I didn’t put up much this season because we knew the Oilers were having issues
Power Wins % / Clear Losses / Goal Diff
Oilers 23.2 / +23
Knights 30.5 / +56
Jets 39.0 / +86
Kings 33.3 / +48
Avs 24.4 / +43
Stars 31.7 / +53
Wild 20.7 / -11
Panthers 29.3 / +29
Canes 32.1 / +35
Caps 30.9 / +59
Devils 31.7 / +20
Leafs 24.7 / +36
Bolts 38.3 / +79
Average 30.0
The point of doing this is because I believe as Scott Reynolds did that it is a strong indicator of team strength. These numbers align with how I see the teams, the Jets leading as makes sense, the Bolts in second as they have been very strong to close out. Unsurprisingly Goal Diff is also a strong indicator
As I have mentioned before the Oilers and Wild are the weakest. The Avs number doesn’t reflect how much MacFarland rebuilt them on the fly. The Devils faded off with injuries, the Panthers aren’t as good as last year
Playoffs are a different beast, so being strong here doesn’t mean you are going to win as tactics play far more into a 7 game series than reg season games. And of course health. The Oilers are an anomaly as LT says, low floor and high ceiling, who knows which team shows up. The good one can still beat anybody as I see it, they have the biggest wild card factors in Connor Leo and Bouch. Missing Ek is tough
Who I see as likely in the first round – Jets, Knights, Caps, Canes, Lightning. 50/50 – Stars, Avs, Oilers, Kings, Leafs, Sens. I’m favouring the Oilers and Avs, no idea about the Leafs. I wouldn’t bet on the Caps, Canes Leafs or Sens after the first round, and I’m suspect about the Jets, but maybe they FINALLY have it together for the post season
I missed putting in Clear Losses %, oops
Oilers 19.5
Knights 15.9
Jets 13.4
Kings 13.6
Avs 19.5
Stars 11.0
Wild 25.6
Panthers 19.5
Canes 22.2
Caps 16.0
Devils 20.7
Leafs 17.3
Bolts 9.9
Average 17.24. The Stars and Bolts are good at not letting games get away from them
I also tracked leads lost / comebacks as defined by going up or down by two or more goals to start the game:
Oilers 6 / 6 – 12 times
Knights 3 / 4 – 7
Jets 2 / 4 – 6
Kings 1 / 0 – 1
Avs 1 / 6 – 7
Stars 3 / 3 – 6
Wild 2 / 4 – 6
Panthers 2 / 1 – 3
Canes 1 / 3 – 4
Caps 0 / 2 – 2
Devils 2 / 1 – 3
Leafs 2 / 1 – 3
Bolts 0 / 0 – 0
Average Leads Lost – 1.92. Comebacks – 2.69. The Oilers are mercurial again, have trouble holding a lead as is their way. The Bolts are a machine. Given the Avs goaltending and depth issues up to their moves only 1 LL is surprising
Thanks for this. I think the Avs, Oilers, Minny and Panthers are likely underrated because of injuries/trades.
Tampa and the Peg seem like good picks.
No worries. I agree on the Oilers Avs and Panthers, pretty hard to get a read, but I think the Bolts are playing too well for the Panthers. The Wild aren’t structured enough I don’t think to handle the Knights. They’ve had the worst numbers all season of the 13 teams
Cool.
I am expecting WPG, DAL, VEG and EDM in the West, making second round WPG vs DAL and VEG vs EDM. DAL and EDM in West Final?
OTT, TB, WAS and NJ in the EAST, with second round as OTT vs TB and WAS vs NJ. TB vs was for East Final?
In the darkest recesses of my blackened heart, I would relish dispatching LA in 4, meet an upstart MIN in Round Two, offer sheet revenge against an overachieving STL in West Final, and an all Canadian Cup Final… but that’s just me…😜
Off the Dome Reasons for Optimism:
1- Oilers have the more dynamic and deeper forward group.
2-Oilers have beaten LA three years in a row. This isn’t roulette, it’s work. Ergo the Oilers have shown they know how to beat LA in a series, while LA has not shown they know how to beat Edmonton. Nobody is “due” anything. What’s with all the mysticism out there?
3-Edmonton’s regular season wasn’t great but its fate wasn’t rested on the knife’s edge of an historic power play. I too miss the globetrotters but scoring in general, and power plays, is down across the league. Edmonton cannot rely on a 40%pp, which is good cause they ain’t got one. (pk looking fine finally too!)
4-I actually think Nurse 2025+Walman is better than Nurse 2024+Ekholm. This is a math blog. That’s my math. Would love all three, but they showed what they can do last year. Not really worried and if Ek can come back at some point, amazing.
5-Depth getting reps, and seeing who amongst them are ready to carry different responsibilities and minutes, while the big dogs recharge, could be genius. We saw the former succeed as they went 13-7-1 (thereabouts?) during the injured stretch. Now just need the big dogs to be ready from puck drop.
6-Big dogs not being ready for puck drop should not be a problem this year, as they’ve had 10 months to stew and prepare for this run. I suspect game one tells us what we need to know.
7-We might not have the best goalies of any team we face, but they will be the only duo to have gone to last year’s cup finals. Experience!
8-Remember folks, all season the Oilers had to play one game 82 times. They now have the opportunity to adjust and regroup, to push back, to come back. This is a resilient and mature team.
Oilers in 4, why not!
Bravo!
This!
1) Last season I thought the Oilers were very, very fortunate to stay as healthy as they were throughout the year and heading into the playoffs, and this year has made me appreciate how rare it is to be that healthy through a playoff run.
2) Walman’s availability (and how much any injury he’s nursing affects his performance) is going to be a huge factor for this series. His ability to play 20+ minutes a night at a high level is going to be needed if the Oilers win in R1. I like Stetcher and Emberson, and Stetcher has had some really good stretches with Nurse this year, but they need Walman’s wheels, good stick, and passing badly.
3) Interesting disconnect between pundits/betting markets on the Oilers/Kings predictions – most sportsbooks I’ve seen have the Oilers favored, while most neutral publications/writers are favoring the Kings. That makes me cautiously optimistic about the series, but there’s so much uncertainty/variance in how this series could go (in my opinion) based on all the injury news. The Oilers’ history with injuries/medical doesn’t inspire confidence, but McDavid looked like his usual self when he returned and I’m hoping for the same from the rest of the players returning from injury.
4) I’m curious LT – how close were your full-year predictions for the team’s records to where they ended up? Not sure but I think you had them just shy of 100 points before the season?
Oilers optimist take here but there is a theme with pundits saying the Oilers are going to miss their lost Forwards in the playoffs but lets not forget their impact last year in the playoffs:
I REALLY do think that Arvidsson will have more overall impact than Foegele and Podkolzin should saw off 2024 playoff Holloway
RNH is projected to be replacing McLeod’s role and should have a greater impact there
That leaves J Skinner to replace RNH’s Even Strength 2G & 10 A over 25 games which I think is more than reasonable
Lastly, I think it’s fair to say Kane will be no worse than his very banged up version last year. McDavid and Drai have shown to be very productive in playoffs despite injuries. Hyman is the big player we need to come back to his regular production and we have a hopefully healthy Frederic as an addition to the group
McLeod also had that nightmare turnover in game 7 against Vancouver.
Skinner has produced 1 assist in his recent time with McDavid.
Maybe he produces a point every other game but I doubt it.
In the last 3 post seasons Foegele has produced 12 points in 47 games for the Oilers while Arvidsson has produced 10 in 11 games against the Oilers alone.
In the 48 minutes they played together since Connor returned, the Oilers on ice goal share has been 4-0. That’s a GF/60 of 4.96. Small sample size but a tremendous result. And the advanced shot metrics on Naturalstattrick are consistent with this (75% XGoal share).
In a small sample size in particular, who gets the points when they score is not critical. If Skinner’s play on the ice creates openings that allow Brown or Bouchard to score (Emberson’s first goal good example), but he doesn’t get an assist, it is still helping. He is helping keep the pressure on, creating distractions (screens and being available for a passes) and over a longer period he will get his goals and assists (as long as the defensive side stays good so KK doesn’t need to make a change)
Coaches look at way more detail than basic box score data to determine who is contributing what.
Thinking the pundits and bookies are seriously under rating the Tampa Bat Lightning as potential cup winners.
Moneypuck gives them the 5th best chance of winning at 7.2%.
Dom at the Athletic has them 4th at 10%
The betting sites generally have them at 6th…around +1100.
But…
Highest scoring team in the league…with 294…8 better than Washington
Third fewest goals allowed…only Winnipeg and Los Angeles better.
Second best goal differential at +79.
Vasilevsky…GAA 2.18 SV% .921 GSAA 28.2 (all are just a hair behind Hellebuyck)
Elite #1D. Victor Hedman 6th best P/GP
NHL scoring champion in Kucherov
Two 40+ goal scorers
Another two 30+ goal scorers
Two 20+ goal scorers providing incredible depth scoring.
The reacquisition of Ryan McDonagh has been a huge success and the rest of their D are big and capable.
Hedman – 6’6″ 245
McDonagh – 6’2″ 220
Erik Cernak – 6’4″ 230
Emil Lilleberg – 6’2″ 207
Nick Perbix – 6’4 205
JJ Moser – 6’1″ 185
Darren Radish – 6’1″ 203
What’s not to like?
They’re my pick over VGK this year. Bjorkstrand/Gourde acquisitions make them deep deep.
I expect you may be right….potential injuries aside.
Moneypuck has Vegas winning the cup at 10.6% as of today.
For Gord’s sake man! D. Raddysh is a defenceman not a vegetable.
Opps…autocorrect I missed.
Too late to edit.
Blah, blah, blah! Oilers are the pick on this site (for the vast majority) until (if?) they are eliminated. The time for math is over – that is for the regular season. Now, we champion with our hearts!
And I will take our walnut (Walman) over Tampa’s radish.
100 per cent agreed!
Personally, I will sorely miss a healthy Ekholm this series, but I am agog at the idea of Draisatl on two legs instead of one…. and the gamemanship of Perry, Frederick and Kane. Those three could definitely drive any oppponent crazy. Bring it on!
Them, because they aren’t the Oilers
Official schedule and actually a locked in 7:30 start time for game 4 – amazing! Thought they’d all be 8pm starts (well, 8:07 or so):
https://x.com/zjlaing/status/1912915107824447868/photo/1
Every other series includes a 3-day rest, except Tampa/Florida. I’m curious if the Oilers would travel the next day, considering the flight time, to reduce impact on recovery and energy level.
I’m already pumped as the real season starts now. Oilers take it in 5 with plenty of rest after Minny stuns Vegas in 6
No! To keep the series progression going the Oilers win in 4.
4-3 / 4-2 / 4-1 / 4-0
Mother of all long shots, but it would be wonderful to dispatch LA in the first round, MInnesota in the second, and St Louis in the third, before facing Ottawa or Montreal in the Final… why dream in bblack and white?
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
Wonder who Jack thinks is coming out if BOTH Kane and Frederic are ready?
I think its a lock that Kane will be ready and, well, Frederic was never ruled out for game 1, we’ve been told he will for sure play in the series and now the series is staring a couple days later than it initially could have.
I can’t figure out why Janmark keeps staying in. He has only scored twice all season (were they both empty net?) and he is not adding much defensively. What has to happen for him to lose his spot?
Janmark kind of went into beast mode for the playoffs last season and Corey Perry didn’t. I guess we’ll see what happens this year. But Perry will need to step up to the plate this year, otherwise he will be scratched again this year. It is my assumption that both of Kane & Frederic will be available for game one. So, I’m sticking with this for game one anyway and go from there..
Skinner-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Leon-Arvidsson
Kane-Nuge-Frederic/ Perry
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Kulak-Bouchard
Nurse-Stecher
Walman-Emberson
Stu & Cal
I wouldn’t mess with the first line, and frankly Brown with Henrique and Janmark was not what they were last spring. I think that was lightning in a bottle frankly. Shoot, even 11-7 would be preferable considering the wear on the D right now.
I’d also keep Nurse with Bouchard, as they are the top D right now, Walman and Kulak can play a strong 2nd pair. When Ekholm comes back he can play 3rd pair until we know he’s not being held together by duct tape.
I think the reasons are two fold:
1) the PK – he is excellent on the PK and he does have chemistry on the PK with Brown
2) he’s trusted as a limited mistake defensive player – unfortunately, I think that one hasn’t actually been reality but the coach continues to attribute that trust.
Truth be told, the PK is going to be exceptionally important – I’m not sure his PK ability should be enough to keep him in but, without him, Podz is already moving from 5PK to 4PK and they will be losing Kap who is 6PK.
I actually don’t mind those lines – every line is a threat to score and it’s a heck of a third line. Mcdavid can occasionally be double shifted with the RNH line, which was the #1 line most the year and makes sure Kane’s minutes stay low to start.
I don’t expect Frederic for game 1. Even if he’s technically ready I’d give it another game or two to see what adjustments need to be made for where to insert him into the lineup.
I see your point about the PK. Unfortunately, the opportunities in the year where others could have been tested in the PK role (hello Philp) were squandered.
Kane in. Frederic in game 2, with Janmark out. That’s my prediction.
In this latest batch of games with McDavid, Skinner produced 1 assist. His leash is probably as short as it was during the majority of the regular season.
In the 42 games since January 1:
Jeff Skinner has the best goal share on the team at 67%
Mattias Janmark has a goal share of 37%, second worst to Kapanen, who won’t be in the lineup. He’s done this while play a sheltered 22% TOI vs. elites – wow!
Jets re-sign Neal Pionk…6 X $7 million
Too much for too long
You say that about every contract extension by other teams.
What would be too much and too long for Bouchard?
You also say it about every Oilers contract signed. I even recall you saying Draisaitl was too much for too long.
And you have been also implying the same for McDavid’s next contract.
Can you sign a contract that is too long on a 26 year old top pairing defenseman?
Not usually depending on contract structure but Pionk’s deal is a low risk for the reasons I have outlined and at a much lower number than Bouchard is likely to get.
Just guessing but I expect Bouchard may well want to front load his next contract which would help in the later years as long as signing bonuses are kept under control.
but, but, but aging curves…….
They are important which is why the Oilers need to be very concerned for their players approaching their mid 30’s.
but yet you only bring them up with respect to the Oilers but, when a mid-tier d-man not on the Oilers signs for very good money through 37 years old, not a mention.
ahhhh I understand… Only Oilers’ players get older… Got it now, thanks !
Pionk’s contract is somewhat front loaded with $8 million in the first two seasons, the only signing bonus is $4 million in the first year with the final two years at $6 million and $5 million.
That makes it relatively easy to buy out should that become an issue.
If you post a players future buyout on the day they sign the contract that is a bad bad sign.
https://x.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1912912590302310445?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
Dom who’s player card valuations are very very player friendly says too much for too long as well
No it’s judicious general managing.
A GM who loads an 8 year contract with term that extends beyond peak years AND provides a NMC while also having the final 4 years payable almost entirely in signing bonuses which cannot be bought out is much, much worse sign.
See Darnell Nurse’s contact for reference.
Nurse’s NMC switches to just a 10 team no trade list in July 2027 with 3 years remaining, when he will have just turned 32 – aging at that point likely not an issue yet. Pionk, who is a whopping 6 months younger (and same draft year if Pionk had been drafted) has a contract with a 15 team no trade list for the first 3 years, then switches to a 10 team not trade list for the last 3 seasons, starting in 2028. Pionk will be 6 months older than Nurse when this contract expires. And they will have identical trade protection for the last 3 years of their contract, but Pionk will be slightly older during this time and his long term contract covers 6 months more beyond his peak than does Nurse’s. The material difference in structure is the buy out calculation.
Dom admits later in the thread but is projecting value over the years.
However his valuation does NOT account for the spiking cap.
$7 million won’t be so bad when the cap is $150 million.
Pionk with a 6 X $7MM extension.
Not really a direct comparable at all for Bouch but I would think that, if Pionk gets $7MM, then $10MM is a reasonable floor for Bouch.
That contract takes Pionk to 37 years old.
While Bouch will have 2 RFA years in his deal, it will be for full prime years.
Bouchard is 5th in scoring for dmen – both overall and ES (note that Pionk has less points, 39, than Jake Walman). His +14 GD is very respectable given the GAA of the Oiler goalies this year. The only thing keeping EB from being an all-round 1st-pairing guy is that he does not PK – as 1/2 the other high-scoring top pairing dmen do.
Looking at salary for the top dmen, 10 x 8 would be good for both EB and the team.
Yikes, sexual assault allegations against Panarin……
Here is hoping they turn out to be false – I like(d) this dude.
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/ny-rangers-panarin-msg-made-settlement-payments-after-employee-sexual-assault-allegations-report-1.2290512
They wouldn’t have paid the girl if the accusations were untrue.
And, unlikely she would have risked the shitstorm women face when confronting an abuser, especially a famous white abuser, if it wasn’t real. Most of us men have no idea of that gauntlet. Good on her for taking that risk.
It’s not the same as in Canada. They way their legal system works, what state you’re in, without having specific inside knowledge it’s pretty hard to say what happened or why
Thanks for posting.
We elevate our sports heroes and expect them to hold the banner for our ideals. Unfortunately, many of them are simply exceptional athletes with poor social skills based on years of privilege. There’s a wonderful and sobering book, co-written by Stu Cowan (Habs writer, Montreal Gazette), that’s a “must read,” in my opinion, for every hockey fan, player, coach, manager, and parent. “Skating on Thin Ice.”
I love the game. I respect the players’ athletic abilities. I find myself disappointed in more and more of them as men – as husbands and boyfriends and “men about town,” especially.
Might be a better practice to anoint more qualified individuals as role models for life than regular folks who are good at puck. Consider quality NHL players who are good people as hockey role models, absolutely — the Zach Hymans and RNHs of the league are fine examples. Putting them on a pedestal for life in general is folly.
I would sub out Ek, who we know isn’t available, for Hyman.
I was hoping to see them all play last night (along with Stecher). Anything more than 4 days offs is less than ideal so, for me, them not playing means that another near week of recovery was important.
Coach says nearly everyone will be good to go for game 1.
I think Kane is a lock to play (coach said everything but after the game last night) and the rest as well but for Frederic (and he may be ready soon too).
Wagon Team!
Maybe just me hoping, but kind of believe that a bunch of the injuries to the core players just bumps and bruises – smoke and mirrors
Rest being the focus for the guys getting the lions share of the minutes come playoffs
no bottom six guys with injuries to speak of
The long run last year may have shown them something about resting small injuries
Ekholm and Fredrick not included in this thought
i think this is essentially a lock. Would be absolutely shocked if he didn’t.
It is extremely hard to beat the same team four years running. I wonder if it’s ever been done? Anyhow I believe in this team with Skinner looking like Tony Esposito the last 2 games is encouraging. The trolls will arrive and rub dog shit in our noses because of Broberg-Holloway-McLeod-Foegele. If one of you Trolls figure the Oilers suck I say to you put your money where your yapper is and let’s go a $200 donation to this fine establishment.
I don’t think you need to think that the Oilers suck to think that the Kings win the series…
I believe the Oilers have been rope-a-doping all year as they didn’t have much of a summer for recovery. I still believe we have our best forward group since the eighties. The only weakness is in net but I think Skinner has been reprogrammed.
How soon we forget… Dallas Stars > Edmonton Oilers 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001
(1997 was special though)
The Montreal Canadiens beat Boston in the playoffs 4 straight seasons from 1952 to 1955 and again from 1984 to 1987. In total Montreal beat Boston in 18 playoff series between 1952 and 1987 with no series losses. This is why LT hates, but respects the Canadiens.
The Islanders beat the Rangers in 4 straight seasons 1981-1984.
Dallas beat Edmonton 4 straight season 1998-2001 after Edmonton won the 1997 series on the Marchand goal.
Edmonton beat Winnipeg in 6 consecutive series between 1983 and 1990 and the only reason is wasn’t 8-0 in 8 consecutive years is the two teams didn’t meet in 1986 or 1989.
Despite playoffs being divisional to start, with 32 teams, only 16 making the playoffs and throw in the Wild Card cross over, the chances of playing 4 consecutive seasons are becoming more remote.
— The odds of beating the same team 4 years in a row in the first round are the same as winning the first round 4 years in a row.
— past results against a team have no predictive value going forward. Each of the the 4 events are independent: there is no “law of averages”
— the best healthiest team with puck luck goaltending guys getting hot and all the other factors that go into a 7 game series matter
Absolutely.
The idea that it’s hard/impossible to beat a team in the playoffs is total malarkey.
Exactly this
Prospectberg!
The Kniggits of London can complete the sweep tonight and advance to the conference final vs. either Windsor or Kitchener (WSR leads series 3-1). A point tonight would extend O’Reilly’s streak to 17 games, while one for Nicholl would extend his to…one.
Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law were dealt a setback when the Colts lost Game 3 on Tuesday. That didn’t stop Wakely from stretching his own point streak to nine games. Akey had a helper to give him five in the eight playoff games so far.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Both times are the same time and are also Carolside time.
Some real historic scoring paces in the OHL playoffs with a pair of Spitfires leading the way.
Liam Greentree (LAK 1st round 2024 draft) has 14 goals and 24 points in 9 GP.
Fellow Spitfire Ilya Protas (WSH 3rd round 2024 draft) also with 24 points including 20 assists.
Record for most goals in one playoff season is 27 goals and most points is 51.
The Spitfires can move on to the third round with a win over Kitchener tomorrow.
The Hart / Lindsay case for Leon
Kucherov is a winger, so no unless he blows away the competition which he did not do – enough said.
Hellebuyck is a compelling choice. T1st in games played, 1st in wins, 2nd in SV%. However, he only played in 76.8% of his teams games, so that is a no for me. It is not like he was Fuhr in 95-96 when Fuhr played 79 out of 82.
For me, the competition is MacKinnon vs Draisaitl so let’s compare the stats.
Nathan MacKinnon
Leon Draisaitl
Leon spends less time in the box, wins FOs at a significantly higher rate, defends better (as shown by the GD), scores way, way more goals both overall and at ES along with the most GWGs in the league.
The hardest game-state is ES, and the hardest thing to do as a skater is to score goals and more importantly GWG when it matters the most. Leon is well placed, and in my opinion, should win both the Hart and Lindsay!
I think Kucherov wins the Hart, simply bc it is back to back Art Ross for him. Not a reasonable argument, but the hockey writers tend not to be reasonable. In my opinion, you make the right argument for Draisaitl, but I don’t know if that is the logic that the voters will use.
Not that this means anything, but most oddsmakers and publications have it between Drai & Hellebuyck
I think either of those guys would be the best choice.
I don’t necessarily disagree but I do think there is a fair argument for Kucherov and Hellbuyck.
Kucherov has 15 more points in 6 more games. You are right in many aspects but I would not be upset if Kucherov won it, he is an absolute beast of a player and is for sure the one who stirs that teams drink.
Pointing out Hellebuyck only played 76.8% of the games of the team is unnecessary to me, goalies don’t play like that anymore, teams don’t allow it. That’s not on the player, that’s on the coach. If he was playing 50% I think there is an argument. I personally think he should win it, if you’re talking “most valuable”, there is no one in the league that was more important to their teams success than Hellebuyck in my opinion.
Also worth noting that goaltenders play 60 minutes in every appearance so have far more influence on wins and losses.
Leon wins it relatively easy with the wide margin of goals.
There’s a trophy for that.
Same for being the best goalie!
Yes there is…but who was the most valuable to their team?
That is the question.
Remember goaltenders play 60 minutes/game.
That’s what we are saying. Drai was the most valuable. Because of all those goals he scores!
Goalies play 60 minutes is not really a good argument for the Hart. Besides, how many of those minutes are spent playing in the same zone that the puck is in? 25?
You are correct, that is the purpose of the Hart Trophy award.
And I don’t need to remember that goalies generally play 60 minutes in a game.
I already knew that, and you just stated this very thing.
Is it new that goalies play 60 minutes per game?
You know, given they’ve won the Hart a total of 8 times in a century.
I wonder if goalies are actually involved in the play, even in an Athletic position, for the entire 60 minutes…..
Yeah just like when Matthews won the Art Ross in 2022, and McDavid had 17 more points than Matthews, and Matthew’s goal scoring lead over 2nd place that year was less than what Leon has now (both in absolute and relative terms) they didn’t award him the Hart either!
…wait a minute!
TBH..if I was voting it would be Ovechkin.
He propelled a team that was considered an also ran to near the top of the standings and in the process set an all time scoring record.
How do you get more valuable than that?
Does TBH really have any meaning when included in one of your posts?
I guess we will know a lot more before and after game 1 on Monday
— true. All these guys wont be back peak
— we will know a lot more after game 1 to be sure. Cup or bust : we will know a lot more as the games progress.
— It’s not a question of “will some of the guys come back at less than 100%” or “will they get re-injured.” rather just the varying degrees.
— They are “rested”. Whether that means “healthy” or “ready” let’s see : it’s now how your ideally peak for a playoff run.
LFGOILERS!!!
This team was built for playoffs when time and space disappears. There is a premium on players who can grind and make plays under pressure. I think that was the rational behind letting Foegele go and deeming McLeod expendable.
We have seen how players effectiveness changes in playoffs when every play is that much more contested.
Absolutely agree. We used to call it “intestinal fortitude” and either you had it or didn’t. It’s not something you could learn, it’s something you’re born with.
Foggy and McLeod didn’t have it. Hollywood had it but his body couldn’t take it. Broberg didn’t show any, yet. Another guy who wilted when the physically pushed.
When players move on, I don’t give them any more thought.
The vets that we have are built for the playoffs. Nobody will wilt.
Can’t wait for the battles to begin!
Interesting comment about being born with it. While I agree to the point that people are born with certain temperaments, there are many many experiences along the way that allow one to develop the characteristic you speak of. Perhaps the die has been somewhat cast by the time your 20.
I see it this way as well. If Connor moved I’d follow him, if Leo had I’d cheer against him. For me sports is competition and I pick a side and stick with it. If my team isn’t there usually I’ll prefer a team, but not always, and it’s often the underdog. I don’t gamble so that doesn’t make me choose
I agree about battle level or IF. Foggy (who Curlock had issues with how he played) and McLeod don’t bring what they could with the size and speed. Holloway I like but was also worried about durability
Bro I was pulling for, but was quite unsure he’d get gritty enough on the walls or learn to avoid getting rocked so often – health again. I wouldn’t have matched on him, but also would have traded him long before that scenario because he wanted out
There are both reasons for concern, and optimism going into the playoffs. Obviously the injury situation is far from ideal, but IF we can believe the verbal from the Oilers, most all of the guys will be in and ready to go for game 1. Stu Skinner’s last two games are another big positive.
I am also encouraged by the new McDavid line. If they can hang in the playoffs, it really opens up a lot of possibilities for the rest of the lines. Fingers crossed. One of the beefs I have with Knoblach this year is the lack of consistency and continuity in the lineup. There have been injury issues the last part of the year, but even prior, the line up was in continuous flux. A lot of the time, pre game lines didn’t make it out of the first period, let alone a stretch of games. Why did it take 82 games to figure out who to play with McDavid? I don’t see other teams doing this amount of line juggling. The closest thing to consistency was the Draisaitl line wit Pod and Arvi. Hope they go back to that
Skinner McDavid Brown
Pod Draisaitl Arvi
Kane RNH Hyman
Frederic Henrique Perry
Walman Bouchard
Nurse Kulak
Stecher Emberson
Skinner
Pickard
Im not confident that Frederic will play based on how long he lasted in the game he played. Janmark would be the obvious fit on that fourth line if he can’t go.
I love those forward lines.
Walman and Nurse could swap at times. Playoff Janmark could be different and I don’t suspect Frederic is ready to start.
Kapanen, Savoie, Ryan, Jones is great 4th line depth
They are certainly rested.
Oilers are built to have gas in the tank for Rounds 3 and 4. It all depends on whether they can win Round 1.
I suspect they won’t be at their best against the Kings in round one. But after that they will get better & better. It will be dreadful if they lose to the Kings before they get things rolling.
That would be a great lineup
They will be sorting out the optimal line combinations on the fly. There are some natural combo’s that possibly can’t be denied. Like Hyman on Mcdavids wing, Pod with Leon & Arvidsson, Janmark with Henrique & Brown. How things will play out with Kane & Frederic remains to be seen but if they end up with Nuge it won’t be a bad thing. Things will sort themselves out as they go along, and the other good thing is all the forward depth if things go off the rails.
Defense is another thing. With Ekholm out they don’t have as good depth as I’d like.
A balanced approach might be the best option that being, Kulak & Bouchard, Walman & Emberson, Nurse & Stecher. But they can switch things up depending on the situations on the ice.
Goaltending is always a factor. Hope our guys can do their thing. but that depends on the team in front of them. thank goodness they tend to tighten up defensively during the playoffs.
If healthy I would put Hyman and Freddy with Drai. Arvi with Nuge. And Stecher with Nurse. I think Stecher/Emberson would get eaten up. Balanced a bit better. Of course if the Viking comes back that changes everything.
If they go Stecher/Emberson, as opposed to more balance, there is likely to be a LARGE discrepancy in minutes between top 2 pairings and the 3rd pairing.
I was going to say, I don’t see Leon/Hyman as a pair as they rarely play together with McDavid. I checked, only 60 minutes but they were 5-2 goals……
Finally. Time to shake the pretenders from the season out. I do not think anyone really knows what team the Oilers will be this playoffs, but we will cheer like hell, while all the time recognizing the club has injuries and flaws. Party hard Oilers fans and let’s hope we get the very best out of our lineup each and every game….from today until July…let’s Go Oilers! Stanley is right there. Now go get it!
Just filled out my playoff pool – series wins not player points. My wife has chided me for not trying to win the thing as I put down the Oilers winning it all. I don’t care what other people think about this – I will always pick the Oil to win Stanley.
So, they are staying in the San Jose area for a few days and then heading to LA.
Series starts on Monday.
For me, I would have leaned towards heading home last night – full days at home Thursday, Friday and Saturday, travel Sunday and play Monday.
Oh well, I can understand the decision but over a week on the road by choice here.
I would have gone home for Easter, as the grinder now truly begins. But I guess that speaks to the sacrifices taken in this career.
I do not understand this at all…get home, get all the ducks in a row. Gather up all the injured and uninjured. Bring the black aces in. Have a team meeting. Couple short practices. Sleep in own bed. The playoffs are a massive grind and every day at home will keep the group comfortable and rested. I do not get it. Poor choice by team IMO.
Totally understand your logic, but I was quite happy with the plan from the coach. Road game, team bonding experience before we stomp LA and Will Ferrell Old School!
Interesting.
Personally I like the decision, it marks a veteran & confident team!
Metallica: Nothing Else Matters should be the Oil theme song for this playoff run.
If they play to their strengths and whip through LA again, “Harvester of Sorrow” would work well too.
There’s a lot of long travel involved and with a team of vets, it does wear on you over time. Staying properly rested and hydrated (air travel actually impacts hydration and can tire you) is a good call. Plus the time zone difference.
Do some team bonding and build that “us against the world” mentality for the series. A lot of people think this is the year LA finally beats the Oilers. Would love to prove them all wrong.
Makes sense to me. Two less long flights, which means two less flights that the Kings won’t be taking themselves before the start of the series, and two less flights added to what could be a long playoff run.
Plus – it’s time spent in a warmer climate to heal sore muscles, less chance to get sick on flights, less distractions.
Everything about this team for the last month has been nothing short of locking in for this moment in time.
I just think it would be too much travel to go back to Edmonton. This way they can focus on the task at hand, practice with fewer distractions, then take the short trip to LA.
One thing I neglected to factor in is the media.
Not heading home, they get a break from the local media. Sure, Tony B. and Kate M. and Stauff will be around but the likes of Spec and DNB and Rishaug and DVD and other credentialed media that will likely travel to LA won’t be around for the net 3-4 days…..
A couple of rounds of golf drinking wobbly pops away from the goofs with phones is a perfect vacation. Like their wife’s aren’t going to enjoy the beach and nightlife.
I’m guessing:
1) these guys aren’t tying any one in the near future; and
2) their wives and girlfriends, as a group, are not joining.
A happy worker is a productive worker.
Not playing Wednesday gives them nearly a full week of additional rest from Kings game 81 to game 1 playoffs. I can see the appeal. I still appreciate that is of concern that they need an additional week.
I am not worried that the group has forgotten how to play playoff hockey, but they don’t have a lot of time to get the PP going, have line chemistry, etc. It will be as much a test of coaching as it is health
I have always believed Kane was going to be like Mark Stone this season, and hopefully similar to the case of the latter, will make an immediate playoff impact
Shout out to this banged up team with the next man up mentality. They performed well down the stretch with significant players missing in action.
Skinner looked the best I’ve seen in some time, rebound control was excellent. 24 more of those please!
Two guys who needed that reset – McD and Skinner.
24 more because we’re going 16-8, right???
16-0. With 8 charity games at the end.