On September 14, 1979, just five weeks after the entry draft, the Edmonton Oilers signed Charlie Huddy. He passed right through the draft, and for players in his position (late-round grade on him) that was an advantage. Why? Huddy’s signing bonus would have been less had he been chosen in a later round.
In September 1995, Edmonton signed a utility forward named Raymond Murray. He had been drafted by the Los Angeles Kings, but they didn’t sign him and the Oilers swept in to grab him. He became well known as Rem Murray, a strong two-way center-wing who had some fine NHL seasons on the Oilers third line.
On the day each man signed, not a soul on earth knew how successful they would become as undrafted free-agent signings. Murray played 500 NHL games, Huddy more than 1,000. Both men were significant contributors to very good teams.
When we discuss the Stan Bowman signings this spring, summer and fall, it’s important to establish we don’t know what we don’t know. I’m a fairly interested observer of prospects outside the NHL, and would put the chances of any of these men playing a full NHL season in 2025-26 at less than 30 percent. That doesn’t mean they aren’t any good, only that several are at least one year away, and those who could impact games next season are unlikely to do it for 82 games.
I have David Tomasek at 100 percent to play NHL games in 2025-26, but I don’t think we can comfortably project him as a regular contributor from day one. Quinn Hutson is a player I see getting in some games next season, but would estimate 10-25 total at this point. He’s a talented player, but you want to see what he can do against a less difficult opponent (meaning AHL) before releasing him into the wild full time.
Josh Samanski is more difficult to project. He is 23, a successful player in a good European league and is big enough to play in the NHL. He didn’t impact his league offensively in the same way Tomasek did, but then again these two men aren’t applying for the same job. I’ll predict less than 10 NHL games next season, but he could surprise.
Atro Leppänen is the most intriguing name on the list. He is 26, a left-shot defenseman and scored more than a point-per-game in the Liiga, a very good European league. He led his team in points, while also leading the league in points. He’s a chaos blue from Finland, so I love him already. I have dreams of Risto Siltanen, Jr flying across the ocean this fall, even though I know we’ll never see another like Risto. Maybe Janne Niinimaa, another brilliant and chaotic blue from Finland we grew to love in Edmonton. Leppänen’s contract is a one-year deal and then he’s UFA, so it’s all or nothing. He’s instantly my favourite, but I’ll predict 20-50 games because he’s a defenseman. I feel like a kid begging dad for a bicycle in the Sears catalogue, but creative defensemen grow in fields in Finland. Music!
Damien Carfagna is 22 and coming out of college. I don’t think he’ll see the NHL next season.
What we learned from Connor McDavid’s most unusual Oilers season.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6286942/2025/04/18/connor-mcdavid-stats-oilers-2025/
LT, I’m not following your argument (or at least the Nov part of it), viz goaltending. GA/60 w/o 97 look great for Nov (1.82, lowest of the year, month on month). Am I missing something? Is the number 1.82/60 wrong?
Also, isn’t the awful November 4.55 GA/60 w 97 the period of the first J.Skinner experiment? I can’t remember.
Unless the posted number is wrong I don’t see Nov as in any way related to goaltending.
That line was stomping offensively in November. based on expected goals I think it’s fair to shine a light on the goalies for that month. It may also have been the defensive work of the skaters for sure, but I think shared blame is fair.
LT cited here: https://flip.it/cAia8N
Condors with 3-4 big blocks with the net empty – a couple by Kemp including a Lavoie one-timer.
Savoie buries it in to the empty net.
Tomorrow night for the playoffs!
Money Puck based on actual goals (xGF%) this year supports a rotation like this:
Line 1: Skinner-McDavid-Brown 4-0 (70.5%)
Line 2: Hyman-Draisaitl-Perry 2-0
Line 3: Arvy-RNH-Pod 6-6 (57%)
Line 4: Kane(was Perry)-Henrique-Kapanen 2-1 (57.9%)
Occasional Line 1/2 replacement: Hyman-Draisaitl-McDavid 24-9 (68.8%)
Hyman-Draisaitl-Perry only played a very short time together in regular season, so it’s the biggest stretch.
This rotation throws the nuclear line into the mix. It is unconventional, because on the face of it, Skinner, Brown and Perry appear to be punching above their weight for TOI. But every 2nd-3rd cycle you just throw the nuclear line out. Because the nuclear line can follow a PK, Brown and 4th line will be resting.
I can see why they’re doing what they’re doing, though, especially with taking two hot hands in Adam and Jeff and putting them with RNH, and putting Arvys hot hand back with Draisaitl.
Savoie with an unreal behind the back pass to Griffith in the slot for the insurance but a 5-alarm save keeps it a one goal game. Its a 5 on 3.
Copponi with some offensive board work, Swetlikof takes it to the net and D’Amato bangs it in for the 4-3 lead.
7:33 to go.
Back and forth we go.
After the Condors turn a 2-1 3rd period lead in to a 3-2 deficit, Caggiula ties it up on a great 3-way passing play with 10 minutes left.
Savioe with one of the defensive plays of the year on the back-track to break up a 2 on 1 but Henderson ties it up second later.
Dermott’s shot from the side boards is tipped in shelf by Savoie and Condors lead late in the 2nd.
Rookie record 19th goal for Savoie.
Goal currently awarded to Dermott but pretty sure Savoie got the tip.
Philp with a massive goal to tie the game with 3:38 left in the 2nd. Crashes the crease and battles for position to bang in rebound.
Pitlick with a nice neutral zone play, Griffith with a great set up to Kanock-Leiepert who put it on net.
Griffith’s first game back, he’s about 40% but gutting it out.
Tucson is down by 2 and, of that holds, Condors would stay alive with one point. 2 points would be better.
Philp drives the net down the left wing and also gives the Condors the lead.
Shots are 24-10 Condors.
Kemp takes a puck to the face and comes back shortly with a full cage.
Even with the turmoil of the season on ice, Condors set a team attendance record tonight.
Yes we’re banged up
but at least we’re not running Cody Ceci lyubuschkin, Petrovic as our RH depth chart
The Stars gave bigger problems.
Heiskanen is out for the first round minimum and Jason Robertson is week to week.
The Avalanche with Landeskog back in action are favoured to win that series.
I have trouble seeing a player such as Kane that hasn’t played all year as much of a roster benefit. Now as much as I like Landeskog I don’t see a player that hasn’t played in 3 years as much of a roster benefit.
Kucherov played in the final Stanley Cup game on September 28, 2020 while playing a chunk of those playoffs with groin issues. He tried rehab and injections in the off season then opted for surgery in December before the 56 game shortened schedule would begin in January 2021. He missed all of the regular season. He played in the first game of the playoffs on May 16, almost 9 months after his last game of any kind. He scored 3 points in that first game, and finished with 32 points in 23 games.
Kane is not Kucherov, but if he can bring something close to his own level of performance from pre-injury, he will be a boost to this roster.
It would be nice to have his shot in the lineup
The Stars D is abysmal.
Not that long ago we were assured they were close to the bst in the league…….
I am so excited for Monday.
I have been watching Flames vs. Oilers circa 2022. Just legendary stuff.
Without Leon going super hero the Flames make the playoffs. Lots of hate out there for the Oilers. This team needs to fuel themselves with us against the world mentality. It’s imperative we get at least a split.
2 min interview with coach post-practice (and it seemed the entire gang were there – Spec and Rishaug) and nothing on any of the injured – nothing on Kane, Frederik and, most importantly right now, Stecher.
Per Stauff:
Hyman-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
J. Skinner-RNH-Henrique
Perry-Janmark-Kapanen
Kane/Frederic-Ryan-Jones
Nurse-Bouchard
Kulak-Walman
Emberson-Brown
Dineen-Klingberg
S.Skinner
Pickard
No Stecher is a big concern.
Josh Brown can be physical, sure, but he will likely leak goals against.
Id prefer Dineen.
I really hate the all righty third pairing. Brown and Emberson have the two worst GF% on the team.
I get it. 300 vs 38 GP. Brown might be able to block a pile of shots on the PK. But Dineen-Emberson seems a logical choice. Maybe Going 11-7, with Brown as seventh gives both options.
I can’t imagine them going 11/7.
If Stech can’t go, I think they’ll run the top 4 hard, work Emberson in at the 6D will be faded big time.
I’d prefer Dineen – I feel Brown would be a large liability, including on the PK.
Dineen has about 3:56 worth of NHL experience on the PK, whereas Brown has played hundreds of minutes.
Brown leads EDM in shots blocked per 60 at 8.56. On the PK he blocked at a rate of almost 25 blocks per 60, which is twice as many blocks per 60 as Darnell Nurse, over 15 minutes of play. He also killed penalties this way with the Coyotes. What he can’t do is move the puck and get it out of the zone, he needs help from the wingers for that.
Josh Brown has been on the ice for 3 PK against in 13 minutes this season. He was very slow and culpable on the PK GA vs. the Kings last week.
It might be time for Josh Brown to silence his critics.
Browns physicality might prove valuable against the Kings.
Last year, LA’s hits per 60 went from 21 in the regular season up to 50 in the series against the Oilers. The Oilers went from 22 up to 35 in response. The Kings have been at about 21 per 60 again this season. Seems probable they will significantly ramp up the physicality again although who knows since it didn’t work out well for them last year. Brown can probably both take it and dish it out better than Dineen. Dineen’s ability to deal with that level of hitting at NHL speed, at 5’11 188 lbs and limited experience in the NHL, is an unknown.
I don’t imagine it would “outweigh” the defensive liability he is likely to be – based on his entire season.
He has played 20% TOI vs. elites (so NOT tough comp) and is 27% goal share and 39% expected goal share and has leaked on the PK.
Stetcher being hurt is a big deal and its not getting the attention it deserves.
^^^^^THIS^^^^^ (Prefering Dineen)
I could see them double shifting Connor & Leon, maybe Henrique too with Janmark & Perry and run with 7 defensemen to answer some questions with their defense pairs.
They play with different defense partners on a regular basis anyway. Rotating defensemen isn’t unusual for this group.
Good thing Brown is familiar with playing LHD.
He still thinks it is Connor Brown making the difference when added to McDavid…
Knoblauch doesn’t know how to read his team’s results. Frustrating.
And you do?
That’s a wild comment. 1. Your belief that you know why Knob does his thing the way he does it, and 2 that you believe he doesn’t know how to read his team’s results, when can’t possibly know how he reads his team’s results
3. Nevermind that you don’t even have access to what he has access to….
I’m ok with these lines, particularly with JSkinner on the third. He likes to create and, with McDavid, there isn’t much opportunity. With Nuge he’ll handle the puck more. He’s surprisingly good at stripping the puck, too. That’ll make a good outscoring but defensive conscious line, imo.
I kind of hate the forward lines too.
Janmark over Henrique at 4C is kind of brutal.
There are a couple of lines of thought here. I think it was Knoblauch who said that Nuge wasn’t used on the third line much because he wouldn’t get enough TOI. Meaning he gives the most TOI to the best players. This makes sense as better players over time will deliver better results. It is interesting that they are planning to it seems, probably mainly because of players under performing this season
Another thread this seems to give is that they aren’t planning to roll 4 lines and 3 pairs. Maybe they don’t feel they have the players (don’t with injuries) but this is concerning if they can keep moving through the playoffs. We know the top players will get tired, and I think they become more prone to injury
First because they are on the ice more so logically the chances are increased. Second because more tired players in my experience watching don’t protect themselves as well. Human nature, and tired bodies are less resilient. If TOI is more even the top players don’t need to provide as much of the physical play, the others can do that more
Perhaps if they can get in control of the series they will even out TOI. Or get ahead and keep hold of leads in games, more chance to even out TOI. I hope Knobby is on top of this. We have seen how Connor and Leo can be worn out when they are played too much in playoffs
If it’s about giving the best players the most TOI, I don’t see how Skinner is not in the top-6 given that he’s the third best Oilers by 5v5 P60. I do not mind his fancies either. Arvidsson can be good on the forecheck, and posts some nice DFF% and expected goals, but the finishing and playmaking is not there. He doesn’t create. It’s brutal.
While we’re on the topic of performance and deployment, I do not understand why Philp is not in the fourth line. I have him ahead of Ryan, Janmark, Kapanen and Jones all day every day. And I would have had him on the PK in the regular season. He was better to my eye and better on the spreadsheet.
Agreed, I should have clarified that’s how Knoblauch sees his best players. I’m not sure if other coaches choose to roll lines and pairs and try to balance them, but the Oilers haven’t had a coach like recently
I kinda see Hyman as a proven playoff performer. I’ll just leave it at that.
I think you have to read between the lines. One of Frederic or Kane will be in the lineup for game one. Frederic is taking full contact while Kane is still wearing a no contact jersey. This leads me to believe Frederic is the most likely to be completely ready to roll. The top two lines look set, but I see Henrique sliding down to center the fourth line with Janmark & Perry and Frederic taking the RW spot with Skinner & Nuge.
Skinner-Nuge-Frederic
Janmark-Henrique-Perry
I suspect there will be line shuffling throughout the playoffs. Don’t get too comfortable with set lines. It’s something the players are used to.
I like the idea of RNH and Frederic digging the puck out and finding Skinner in the soft area. It’s going to take some nice shots to beat a hot Kuemper.
Oilers practice at 1 mountain – we’ll have info on who is healthy shortly.
Walman and Frderik on the ice early.
Frederic.
“He’s a chaos blue from Finland, so I love him already.” Classic LT!!
Oilers have recalled Derek Ryan “from the Condors”.
Of course, a longer trip for Ryan to meet the team in San Jose than if he was actually with the Condors – they could have used him defending that 1 goal 3rd period lead on Wed, or to extend that lead – Condors lost 2-1 in a massive game.
Good grief
They can say what they want but it’s important to make the AHL playoffs.
A big weekend coming up.
Tucson is up by 2 points for the final playoff spot with both they and the Condors having 2 games left to play.
All Tucson needs is 1 OT point to make it but they are playing both games against division leader Colorado while the Condors have 2 games against bottom feeder Henderson.
Since Colorado has already clinched the division championship and a first round bye, you have to wonder if they will be resting players.
They may have won that game on Wed with Derek Ryan in the lineup.
I don’t get why he didn’t go to the farm and help out a depleted squad but more importantly mentor Savoie etc. When he signed his deal did Holland perhaps promise him no farm club would happen. This kinda pisses me off the entitlement card being played and especially when we can’t man a full AHL squad. It sure is easy to sit in the peanut gallery and blame the A.H.L Coach with the crap he’s working with.
If Holland had promised him no farm club would happen, how do you explain him spending at least 6 weeks there playing 13 games from January 29th to March 13? I am guessing you can’t.
And why do you assume he played some entitlement card? Sure is easy to sit in the peanut gallery and criticize people you don’t know about situations on which you have very limited info.
If not the entitlement card why no information why he didn’t report to a depleted farm team. You seem like your on the IN what’s the reason?
There is zero indication that there is anything going on other than he didn’t want to go. I’m sure he had/has the org’s blessing but he has had no problem joining the Oilers on the road any time they’ve put him back on the roster (for the Winnipeg game and, well, now).
I hate bringing up money but I will. Your probably to young to remember these players but anyhow Derek the journeyman Ryan career earnings will be more than the career earnings of Lanny McDonald-Mike Bossy-Guy Lafleur-Glenn Anderson combined.
Good news on the league economic front:
“Thursday’s seven-game finale pushed total attendance for the full, 1,312-game regular season to 23,014,458, surpassing the 23 million mark for the first time.
The record figure represents 96.9% of capacity.”
https://media.nhl.com/public/news/18891
Some decent potential for increases next season.
Utah will be doing extensive arena renovations to increase capacity. They drew the fewest fans in the league with an average of only 11,131.
The Sharks (14,219) and Ducks (15,086) could also see increases as their teams improve.
Worth noting that 11 131 for Utah represents only the completely unobstructed view seats, which they sold out. The actual capacity for hockey games was 16 200, with 5 069 (!!!) being partially obstructed and not counting to their official total for their inaugural season.
Kinda neat having 3 active Rocket Richard winners on the roster.
Hopefully the one with the passers mentality remembers this and actually shoots more.
and four 50-goal scorers….
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Been a while since we’ve heard from Jay Woodcroft – who after one full season w/ #Oilers had the 3rd-best Pts% in history.
What does a coach do with 18 mos. between jobs?
Woodcroft’s journey on Frankly Speaking.
Watch: https://youtu.be/V20_hLudt4o
More importantly what’s George Burnett up to these days?
I was going to listen to this on the treadmill for today’s second workout but figured that Stauff on the Hockey Night in Scottsdale pod would be a better listen.
I listen to Jay talk about what he’s done to get a little better every day tomorrow.
— ever since I was a kid I always wondered what I would prefer in terms of when to fly in to home team for playoffs.
— as a kid I’d be like “yeah get there early spend a few nights in a hotel so cool”
— but I wonder know what is the preference. Game is Monday night. It’s a 3 1/2 hour flight.
— I’d prefer fly in Sunday leave after lunch and work out/skate the morning. The extra days in my own routine bed gym food etc : have evening to chill in hotel wake up Monday and get game face on for evening game.
— But I think convention is they leave today?
In 2006 there was almost a week between the end of the conference finals and the finals. The Oilers flew into NYC and Slats set them up at the Rangers practice facility just down the road from me. Time to get acclimatized to the time zone and the humidity. I think it’s great they stayed in California.
— oh so they have been there since Tuesday : didn’t fly home and have been living out of hotels for the week?
— obviously different than work trips but I never feel good spending a week in hotels. Get out of routine a bit not same gym. Restaurant foods miss family etc.
— but I guess the 3 1/2 trip x 2 and cali weather better.
Do some golfing party it up a bit as a reward for the fantastic season. I assume they’ll have some productive practices with a few new wrinkles on the PP which may be the deciding factor once L.A can’t help themselves and get dirty.
Does training at altitude hold any advantage when the event is not at altitude? If so. Go practice in Colorado.
I think I heard they are planning to head to LA tomorrow (Sunday) from San Jose.
As far as not going home after the game on Wed, I’m sure they polled the group and made a team decision.
This is a vet group, lots of players with young families that I’m a bit surprised they decided not to head home for a couple of night.
“Focus” Let’s face it this team has been sleepwalking for weeks. As a group they need to turn the faucet on and lock it down for Skinner. L.A will try forcing the issue at home we need to be patient and strike on the counter-attack. I will gladly take a goose egg game halfway through.
I don’t know about sleep-walking – their record over the last while with 5-6-7 regulars out nightly is actually quite solid. They didn’t have McDavid and Drai in a game together for any of the last 14. Ekholm missed almost all of them – they won quite a few.
In each of the last two games, they have up 18 shots.
It seems the experts that do watch these leagues have Tomasek as NHL ready and able.
I say “we’ll see”.
From what I’ve seen, Hutson is not NHL ready and will likely be in Bako for at least part, if not all, of the season.
I say Savoie is all but a lock for the roster – he’s legit and he’s ready.
Presuming he signs, I think Berezkin will be a substantial add to the middle six.
He’s exciting.
Adding Berezkin to that list would make 6 mature players plus Savoie, Philp & Regula on the horizon to compete for positions on the Oilers next season. Looks very promising. Indeed.
After a day off yesterday, the boys will practice today and it will be intriguing to see the line combos and pairs that are rolled out.
I presume Tony or Bob will pass that info on.
Another major reason I like them on the road practicing… way less media to focus on the task at hand… almost stealth like
I’m so excited, I just can’t stand it, I’m about to lose control, and I think I like it.
Cool… I’ve been looking forward to your breakdown of these players. Good analogy on the Sears catalogue… I was thinking something similar the day, or day after you informed us to expect signings… and bam!
Just curious LT… do you have the Leafs or Sens winning that series?
I have the Leafs winning, but a lot of people smarter than me are picking Ottawa. Should be fun!
The heart is definitely cheering for the Sen’s!
If there was any other Canadian team to win the cup other than our beloved Oilers, I would be completely fine with Ottawa. Have never had any qualms with them. Used to deal that way about the Jets as well, but ever since they swept the Oilers in the North Division Playoffs years back, they are also dead to me.
So there are now 5 Canadian teams I would dread seeing lift Stanley… Toronto and Calgary being tied for the Worst Case Scenario in my eyes.
Agreed – I don’t want to see any Canadian team win the cup other than the Oilers – I want them to win it. If another had to, ya, the Sens.
Thanks… not sure why it’s the only series I’m hesitant about. Sens are 3-0 in the season but that ‘shouldn’t’ matter now, but it’s the Leafs
Didn’t matter for the 4-0 Canucks against the Oil. I want Sens for lols but the Leafs should handle this.
Never discount the pure ass-hattery of a Tkachuk brother.
Brady can play on my team any day – just leave dad and brother at home