Oilers v Kings, Game FIVE Round ONE

by Lowetide

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Reja

Any word on the 2 zebras tonight? How the Oilers and Kings fair with them? I’m sure noticing the linesmen on face-offs that is not a good thing as they didn’t get the memo it’s not about them.

Sierra

Looking for the Oilers to start the game on time tonight and play “their” game right from the start.

Harpers Hair

Elliotte Friedman

@FriedgeHNIC

There is word this afternoon that Rick Tocchet will not be returning as head coach of the Vancouver Canucks.

Believe there will be a full statement with his rationale in the next little while…but add Vancouver to the teams looking for a new bench boss.

Side

Dear readers:

“Harpers Hair
Reply to delooper
May 3, 2024 8:47 pm
We’ll see.

Tocchet’s system is based entirely on structure and playing low event hockey.

Given he is likely the Jack Adam’s winner and his team making the final 8, he may be on to something.”

He in fact, was not on to something.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

…On to the next flight out of town.

Side

…to teach a revolutionary new system in hockey, a.k.a, “Tocchet’s system”, which is based on structure and playing low event hockey, to evolve the game across the globe. His course will be called Tocchet’s Talks and it will revolutionize the game.

Harpers Hair

Rick Tocchet won the Jack Adams Award on Wednesday. The award is presented annually to the top coach in the NHL as voted on by the National Broadcasters’ Association.

https://www.nhl.com/news/rick-tocchet-wins-jack-adams-award-as-nhl-coach-of-year#:~:text=Rick%20Tocchet%20won%20the%20Jack,by%20the%20National%20Broadcasters

His departure from Vancouver has zero correlation to his coaching acumen.

leadfarmer

Missing the playoffs despite all this depth we’ve heard about also has zero correlation to his coaching acumen

Side

It definitely has correlation to the Canucks finishing 18th in the league though.

Tocchet’s system, a.k.a “hope Quinn Hughes is healthy”, didn’t work out very well this year.

oil_drum

No he did not. He won the award last year. He is not even considered a finalist this year. As a NHL head coach he has made the playoffs twice in nine years, winning one series. To say it has zero correlation might be a stretch, given that they had a -19 pt swing in the standings.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Wednesday… of last year! Jesus, dude.

Imagine being the coach of a team that had three stars. One of them is captain, the other two hate each others’ guts. You, recall, are the coach.

Your “system” is lauded I guess but you can’t get the captain to lead his colleagues toward something greater than themselves and you can’t get it done yourself, either. The consequence of this is that your team misses the playoffs and the vibes are all time low. In Vancouver… that’s saying something.

Anyone describing the Tocchet era as anything other than failed is lying to themselves. I would expect it from a franchise that has immortalized surrender in bronze form but not from outside observers who claim to know what they are talking about.

Durag

But Tocchet had “A ‘good’ playoff run”! A.K.A. a Vancouver Stanley Cup

OriginalPouzar

Drance had the following quote from Rutherford:

“We don’t feel it’s right to have somebody here that may have his mind somewhere else,” Rutherford said.

I wonder about Sullivan given his history with Rutherford.

anti-Trust Issues

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Kane – Henrique – Brown
Frederic – Janmark – Perry

Nurse – Bouchard
Walman – Klingberg
Kulak – Emberson

KK sure is stubborn … why he keeps running out 25-2 when 27-2 is such a better stylistic fit is beyond me.

Nuge continuing as 1LW is concerning, honestly wouldn’t mind Kane getting a look there.

fishman

Guessing we shouldn’t get too hung up on line combo’s and D pairs in practice. Game starts and the blender comes out.

anti-Trust Issues

My concern is that the blender comes out because the team is down 2-0 early because of these lines …

donkeyboy

My hope (cope) is that these lines are only to disinform the Kings.

leadfarmer

How long do you expect these lines to be in place?

Harpers Hair

Elliotte Friedman

@FriedgeHNIC

NHL reveals Norris Trophy Finalists:
Hughes (Vancouver)
Makar (Colorado)
Werenski (Columbus

Chelios is a Dinosaur

2 playoff wins between them.

Harpers Hair

NHL trophies are voted on before the small sample size playoffs begin.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

no shit!

OriginalPouzar

Love the morning skate set up going back to the traditional top 4 with the duo split. There is legit depth with the likes of Kane and Frederic and Perry in the bottom.

I truly feel the ability to provide a spark with a fresh load up, for a shift here or there, or an overall change, is impactful. Way more than starting off loaded.

donkeyboy

Not happy to see Nurse-Bouchard as the top D pair.

OriginalPouzar

Last game, at 5 on 5, Bouch played:

8:46 with Kulak
8:31 with Nurse
7:55 with Walman

We’ll probably see more of the same (potentially more with Kulak and Walman as they faded Nurse/Bouch as the game went on, I think).

We need to remember, what we saw at skate really means little – for all we know McDavid/Drai are loaded up from puck drop (I hope not).

donkeyboy

Also Kane-Rico-Brown together is big yikes. That line got shellacked at home.

anti-Trust Issues

I wish someone would just ask KK in a postgame scrum “Line X was outchanced and outscored by [margins] the last two games – why did you keep that line together to start the game tonight?”

I have no clue what he is thinking, and would at least like to hear his thought process.

It feels like he’s just falling back on what worked in the playoffs last year, without reference to the actual on-ice results the past few weeks

donkeyboy

Right?
How much better that would be instead of whatever question Spec is asking.

90s fan

If you could go back in time and push a little harder for Markstrom, when we were in talks, at the same time as Calgary, and give him that extra year, would you?

Think of all the meandering that would have been avoided with smith, koskinen, and Campbell. In my opinion, that is one move that may have had led us to a cup already.

dulock

I think Markstrom’s numbers the last five years would suggest he wasn’t the answer for the Oilers. Trading Cam Talbot in the middle of one bad year (like Dubnyk before him) was the big mistake. Had we held on to Anthony Stolarz who we traded Talbot for, we’d be having a different conversation as well.

Fuge Udvar

Having Mike Smith on that list is unfair. He was continuously doubted by fans but in his 3 years he put up a .902, .923(!!) and .915

Last edited 1 hour ago by Fuge Udvar
dangilitis

“The biggest tweak I see in the home/road (and I’m no expert in this area) is that the two coaching staffs disagree about the McDavid-Anze Kopitar minutes.”

I would say they agree very much about the minutes 🙂 Why would LAK want that match up to continue on home ice.

In the past, McDavid has struggled against Danault line. That line has to break through while whoever is tasked with Kopitar’s line has to break even. And limit their PP to 0-1 goals.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

This might be nitpicking but I don’t think its a meaningful critique of Edmonton that Jack Eichel has a cup when the Oilers and McDavid still don’t. Its not like Buffalo built a championship club around Eichel; they also mismanaged him and their club before he parachuted into one with the VGK: A team that had every advantage Edmonton didn’t when McDavid joined the NHL. (No baggage vs. only baggage.)

anti-Trust Issues

I mean there’s plenty of reasons to criticize Edmonton for not getting a cup with McDavid to date, but the fact Eichel got one in a different city is not one of them.

I don’t think I’ve ever heard/read anyone make this critique

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Lowetide just sort of did, above.

Reja

We have had 63 goaltenders suit up for us in franchise history. With at least 59 games started in the regular season Calvin Pickard has the 2nd highest winning percentage at 67% Andy Moog tops it off at 72%. We keep hearing about what a bargain Skinner is I think it’s time to give Pickard a little more praise for having the chore of constantly cleaning up poop stains left on the carpet by Skinner.

31saves

While Wins are not always the best indicator of a goalie’s skill, after a while you have to give a player their dues when you win almost every time you’re in net. Definitely have to give Pickard praise for this year, and should start considering his contract a value contract for what he’s done.

Reja

Everytime Pickard name is mentioned it’s following with that he’s only starting until Skinner gets reset whatever the fuk that’s suppose to mean. Pickard has 2 in a row 14 more to go. How many more consecutive wins does he need to have his on sentence where Skinner name is not brought up?

Elgin R

A lot of negativity towards Bouchard online (including TSN) while heaping praise on Cale Makar. Now, Makar is a great dman but Bouchard is also playing well this playoff season.

Makar

  • 0-1-1 / -4 in 3 losses vs Stars
  • 0-1-1 / +1 in 2 wins vs Stars
  • SH TOI = 13.8 min in 5 games
  • Short Handed Goals Against = 2
  • Overall +/-: -3
  • PDO = 94.3
  • OiSV% = 88.9

Bouchard

  • 4-0-4 / -1 in 2 wins vs Kings
  • 0-3-3 / -1 in 2 losses vs Kings
  • SH TOI = 3.7 min in 4 games
  • Short Handed Goals Against = 1
  • Overall +/-: -2
  • PDO = 94.7
  • OiSV% = 78.0

Bouchard, like Makar, is playing the toughest minutes and is significantly impacting the game. Even with the horrible goalie save percentage and less short-handed time, Bouchard is giving the Oilers a chance to win every night. Do I hope he cuts down on the defensive miscues – of course. However, a review the data clearly shows that Bouch is playing as good as Makar.

The whole team plays fast and aggressive leading to a 4-2 W tonight!

godot10

https://x.com/travisyost/status/1917238254900035626

Top four defender performance in the playoffs:

cowboy bill

That’s a small sample size four games into the playoffs.

donkeyboy

Imagine trying to fade Bouchard’s playoff performance when he’s top 5 in goals, top 10 in points, and is playing 26.5 minutes a game.

Elgin R

As the post was about dmen, let’s just look at that.

Bouchard: Goals – 1st, Points – 2nd, G per 60 – 2nd, Points per 60 – 2nd, TOI – 7th

I am backing Bouchard all day long!

Note:

  • Broberg: 0-0-0 / +4 in 20:18 TOI / 4 games
  • Walman: 0-1-1 / +6 / 20:45 TOI / 5 games
dangilitis

In incredibly good company with Vegas and Winnipeg

anti-Trust Issues

I don’t think we need to cherry-pick 4 game sample sizes to show that Broberg is already a good NHL defensemen.

You can point to far more compelling/reliable data to reach that conclusion lol

Fuge Udvar

This is exactly what LT was meaning about parsing the data too deeply. The graph looks fancy but has zero predictive power. There is no statistical evidence that they are likely to repeat those numbers.

If you flip a coin heads four times in a row does that mean it will definitely be heads the fifth time? Sample size matters

donkeyboy

Godot knows this, they’ve been commenting here forever. But there isn’t a straw Godot won’t grasp at to try to say Bouchard sucks.

Reja

It goes without saying we to need keep wearing down Mikey and Doughty on the forecheck. Watching the Bouchard equalizer again what a strange play Byfield makes. He had all day to easily chip it past the blueline if that was a Oiler (Eberle) he would be crucified to no end if the Kings lose the series.

judgedrude

Wooden hangers, and especially premium wooden hangers, are clearly better for your clothes, although they can be a costly investment. Wire hangers are economical, but not preferred.

As an NHL player, they have the means for a wooden hanger, and by not doing so, reflects a player that does not pay attention to detail. McDavid will most rightly dominate players who do not pay attentions to details.

Hence, McDavid will surely dominate lowly wire-hanger defensemen.

barry.moore23

The secret is to have the means to buy wooden hangers but choose to wear your favorite player name/number T shirts, usually from straight out of the dryer. Leaves $$ to donate to a local charity. Good for the soul.

delooper

If the Oilers want to follow the draft and develop pipeline they would need to religiously separate McDavid and Draisiatl. When you have two players hogging the majority of the minutes, it makes it hard for young players to transition to the NHL. i.e. few players enjoy the idea that if they play on the Oilers they’ll start on the 3rd or 4th line, and simply stay there forever.

In part that’s why the 80’s Oilers had success in the draft-develop pipeline. They kept Gretzky and Messier largely apart. Gretzky’s line was Kurri+enforcer and occasionally Kurri+extra offensive power, but Messier’s line had spots that players could regularly graduate up to.

anti-Trust Issues

If the Oilers play McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line, there are 4/6 spots available in the top 6 for younger players, the exact same number of sports if they play them apart, and their TOI isn’t materially higher in games where they are together/apart.

If there’s any concern about on-roster players blocking younger players, its from the multitude of veterans the Oilers sign in free agency that block younger players from roster spots. Savoie isn’t getting blocked because KK likes playing 97-29 together, he’s blocked because the Oilers have Skinner, Arvidsson, Hyman, Kane, Nuge, etc.

If Holloway signed his offer sheet because he thought he’d be stuck on the 3rd and 4th lines, it’s not because 97/29 played a lot together, it’s because there were 6-8 wingers fighting for 4 spots in the Top 6.

If the point you’re trying to make is that keeping them apart is a good idea because it gives young offensive minded players an opportunity to succeed by playing with one of 97 or 29 that’s another thing, but I have no idea how/why you think playing 97/29 blocks forward prospects’ development

delooper

You develop quicker when playing with better players. i.e. if all you want to do is block shots in d-zone, getting shelled all day then yes you might be fine playing on lesser lines.

cowboy bill

Holloway followed the money. It’s too bad because he would have beaten both of Arvidsson & Skinner in competition for a position in the top six in Edmonton. It’s also too bad they didn’t just make him a better offer in the first place.

delooper

That’s the easy way to think about it. But it’s not what Holloway said.

Reja

Holloway is injury riddled I’m actually surprised he played a full season.

Shane

Reja, he didn’t play a full season. Hasn’t yet.

anti-Trust Issues

I don’t think Holloway’s decision was driven by $ primarily. I think he knew he was on a team with a ton of competition for top 6 minutes playing for a coach who favors veterans. In STL he saw more ice time, the opportunity to play on the PP, and less players blocking him for premium minutes.

He bet on himself and it worked out great for him (so far).

winchester

Holloway stated Oilers hardly showed up at the bargaining table. They planted doubt in his head as to his future.

anti-Trust Issues

Right, his future about his role, ice-time, future with the club … the same stuff I said I think was more front of mind than him than $

Scungilli Slushy

I think poor drafting at the top for forwards was a bigger problem. Nobody was good enough to or learned how to play in the top 6 except Yama for two or three months. Yama was smart enough but didn’t play a sustainable style as we see

Puljujarvi (zero due diligence IMO, bust)
Yama (not elite or fast enough to be that small)
Holloway (good)
Bourgault (bust)
Schaefer (meh)

Holloway not available for St Louis which has been an issue

anti-Trust Issues

1) The Oilers need to get out to a strong start in the first period tonight. They’ve only really started on time in one game (G3) this series, and when playing from behind KK tends to load up McDrai on the first line and play the bejesus out of them (I think, going off of the eye test). A strong start that allows KK to let them both stir the river on their own lines puts LA in the position of defending one or more of 97 or 29 for two-thirds of the game.

2) LA is going to dive, flop, embellish, spear, and sucker-punch all night. The Oilers need to avoid taking retaliatory penalties that don’t prevent goals from going into their net, and to not give the referees a reason to call a penalty. The officiating this series, like every NHL playoff series in recent memory, has been inconsistent from period to period and filled with missed calls and ticky-tack infractions. If the Oilers need to push back they need to be smart/savvy about it – Corey Perry could teach a university course about how to get away with murder without the stripes seeing it. The best way to shut down LA’s PP unit is to keep them off the ice, full stop.

3) If wouldn’t be opposed to seeing 97 and 29 kill some penalties, particularly against a 5 forward unit. The threat of one or both of 97/29 headed back the other way on a shorthanded chance might make the Kings PP unit less aggressive pinching to keep the puck in and might put them on the back foot.

4) The Oilers’ history of trading quality draft picks for declining vets, struggling prospects, and magic beans is a trend that’s been consistent across multiple general managers and presidents of hockey ops. It’s an organizational failure that can’t be laid (solely) at the feet of Chiarelli, Holland, or Bowman, and the organization’s failure to have guardrails in place to make sure the decision-maker of the day can’t mortgage the future to cover their ass has burned them time and time again.

5) I’ll give Bowman credit for making some astute moves to bring in some youth from overseas, but ultimately the Oilers need difference makers on value contracts, not bottom-of-the-roster/AAAA players, and these type of Euro signings are more often the latter rather than the former. Savoie needs to step up in a big way and the Oilers need to convert what draft picks they have remaining into near-NHL ready prospects that can contribute to the next few years’ teams (whether picking players with shorter development curves or trading them for prospects).

RockySLeafs

Momentum is on our side. Draisaitl, McDavid and Bouchard are in the Kings heads. Next 2 games, no problem (I think)🥴

anti-Trust Issues

momentum was on our side in the 3rd period in game 1 until it wasn’t. Can’t expect yesterday’s success to dictate today’s results, every game is a new beginning and every win has to be earned each and every night.

RockySLeafs

Good points, but maybe I’m overly optimistic but I still think that the way the Kings lost must grate them

anti-Trust Issues

You learn more in defeat than in victory, if anything I’d expect them to come out very strong tonight in their own barn

OriginalPouzar

Also per Woodley: I guess the environment in front of Kuemper has been better for him than in the regular season – the goalie is just not making the saves to the extent he was in the regulars season.

He has an expected .903 in the playoffs.

Oilers are doing a good job attacking at and below the goal line – in and off his posts.

Credits the pre-scouting – likely Schwartz.

rich tm

You mean, Schwartz might be good for something after all?

anti-Trust Issues

great! Let’s promote him to some new role and hire a goalie coach who can actually improve the Oilers goalies!

Reja

Need to kill off that 1st ticky tack penalty call in the first five minutes. Low event hockey let’s get out of the 1st tied. Let’s roll 4 lines see how Hiller responds to this. I have a good feeling on Mr.Kane having a big night Frederic also seems to be improving as the series has gone on.

OriginalPouzar

Per Woodley, Skinner’s expected save percentage is .872 and Pickard’s is .904.

The Oilers as a team have started playing better – maybe it was the home games.

OriginalPouzar

This is also an extension of the regular season – a discrepancy in what the Oilers give up as between the two goalies.

LadiesloveSmid

So Pickard is 0.015 below his expected, Skinner is 0.062?

Another commenter noted, but there’s a chance Kuemper could steal a game outright.

RockySLeafs

Love your call letters…lol

prefonmich

Oilers need to switch up their game a little in LA and keep it super simple off the start. Forecheck back check hard. Win the battles. And don’t take any dumb penalties. What has killed us in game one and two has been the early pp goal and then momentum with the crowd after.

Scungilli Slushy

The key every game is to limit the mistakes. I think they are feeling it now, and if they can bring drive and play a cleaner game they will prevail in a more normal fashion. Also the goalie

Scungilli Slushy

For sure, it doesn’t work. It’s weird how no matter who the coaches they get stuck on certain things regardless of evidence of better options. It’s like none of them trust their players enough

anti-Trust Issues

Continuing to run 25-2 might cost KK his job, hopefully he adjusts

cowboy bill

They’re reasonably good on the road. But this is an unusually hostile environment. They will need to score early and often to silence the crowd. The best defense is a great offense, keep the puck out of the defensive zone, and keep the pressure on LA in their d-zone. It’s more exhausting to defend than to attack. Make few mistakes, maintain puck possession. It’s a simple game plan but hard work.

OriginalPouzar

As solid as the third period was and as dominant as OT was, in LA, I hope they split McDavid and Drai to start the game.

It’s generally more effective when it’s an in-game adjustment as opposed to the way they start.

Ryder

100% agree – I’d be curious about the fancy stats on this one. When they start the game together, they sometimes seem complacent but when put together for a shit i.e. post PK or later in games, their mentality seems to be to make the most of the moment

anti-Trust Issues

Agreed – if anything its more important on the road because it makes it harder for LA to line match, and either the McDavid or Draisaitl line gets away from Danault/Anderson/Doughty

cowboy bill

Run four balanced lines and attack with relentless ferocity for sixty minutes.

OriginalPouzar

I would prefer Bowman sign Berezkin over Blumel. I don’t think Stauff and Bowman would have discussed that in air if it was not trending for a signing.

OriginalPouzar

Fair enough.

I’m just not sure there is much separation between a Blumel who turns 25 right away here and the European (and I guess college) UFAs that Bowman has signed (not that I think any of them will be on the roster in October except maybe Tomasek).

Blumel is clearly a substantial AHL player but he hasn’t got much of a chance in the NHL in an org that gives its top AHL players chances and, when he has had his chances, he’s underwhelmed.

Of course, can’t disagree with your premise of finding players to add to the organization outside the draft.

OriginalPouzar

Deleted because it repeats what has already been written.

Last edited 5 hours ago by Lowetide
Reja

Would another year of junior really be all that beneficial. Would the idea of sending him to a Finnish-Swedish league where we know a friendly Oiler management coach to aid in his growth as a 2 way Centre. I guess he wouldn’t get heavy ice time like he would in London but he would be playing against men.

OriginalPouzar

Barkley and Cowan will be gone so O’Reily will be THE main forward…..

OriginalPouzar

At some point a goalie is going to massively impact a win for his team in this series.

barry.moore23

Sundays’s events kind of reminded me if that sequence against San Jose one year (can’t remember exactly when) late in the third Klefbom with a huge goal to tie then Deharnais wins it in OT. So exciting.

Last edited 5 hours ago by barry.moore23
Brantford Boy
barry.moore23

Yes. Thank you, my brother. “Seems like yesterday, but it was long ago…”

leadfarmer

From Barzal or Erickson Ek to Holloway and Broberg, incompetent GMing has already cost us at least one cup

90s fan

For those who doubt, I did check the almanac, and this is indeed a scientific fact.

Scungilli Slushy

Holland had better ideas (and I think less interference) and was more stable than Chia, but his weakness making deals left the team with basically the same issues as when he arrived. Also some pretty weak pro assessment. After 5 years things should have been 100%, actually earlier as the elites were there and experienced. Gross

Reja

The drafting of Bourgault over a possible franchise goalie in Wallstedt was baffling. How could you pass up on this pick especially with our near non existent pipeline in net. The pick was Wallstedt all day everyday whether he pans out or not a goalie of his pedigree still will hold weight even with his less than stellar numbers.

godot10

You mean Bourgault over Wyatt Johnston. Wallstedt, even if he makes it, which is still in doubt, the earliest he would be a legit #1 is in another three years.

Reja

I wonder how close they came to choosing Wyatt we’ve all heard about the Coffey connection to Wyatt. It must have been a real back and forth on choosing Bourgault who ultimately got Wright cleaning out his desk

Bar_Qu

Seriously considering a pregame nap so I can stay up and watch the whole thing tonight. I try not to have hope going into the games, as I think it is bad luck (from me to the team) so I remain cautiously pessimisstic to try to keep the streak going.
GOilers!

rev.hans

A nap is always a good thing. Whether a well-rested, remote, optimistic/pessimistic fan base makes a difference is still under review.
Me, I pull on my jersey and sing the anthem before every game. Mixed results this year. One of the dogs hates it, though. That much I do know for sure.

Ryder

There is such a noticeable difference in how the third periods have looked compared to the rest of the game. While it’s likely multifactorial and more nuanced, the two big themes seem to be how much we push and how much LA sits back. We can only control one, but it would be really fun to watch a game where we rolled 4 lines and pushed the way we did in OT while running a 2-3 offence in their zone to limit jailbreaks the other way. Let’s hope!

Brantford Boy

Speed, energy, forecheck, out hit, stay disciplined, win the 50-50 board battles will probably lead to the first goal of the game, and we’ll be heading north with a game in hand.

Go Oilers!

Justenvogt

The mismanagement of this team during the McDavid era is criminal, us Oiler fans are the prisoners, this blog our chow hall, summers our solitary confinement and Lord Stanley our key. Please let us out!

Tarkus

Prospectamine!

It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times.

The former sentiment applies to Muskegon, who won both games in Dubuque and have earned two cracks to win the series on home ice. Berry has but an apple to subsist upon in eight playoff games thus far.

The latter describes Barrie, who went opposite-Muskegon and dropped both games at home. The Colts now have the daunting task of going into Oshawa and hoping the road food is better than the recent home cooking. Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law have yet to see the scoresheet in this series.

Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5 p.m.

Both times are the same time and are also Willingdon time.

Red wolf

Bring it home Oilers!

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