The Edmonton Oilers have a chance to take a stranglehold on the second-round series against Vegas Golden Knights this evening in Edmonton.
This series has been a revelation for several players, including Calvin Pickard (two wins versus VGK, and an impressive five-on-five save percentage of .919) and Vasily Podkolzin (a stunning 4.17 points-60 and 83 percent goal share at five-on-five during the eight playoff games).
Everything in the playoffs is double and then double again, and someone is going to be the ‘Pisani’ for Edmonton this spring. Who is it? Two candidates above, more on the way and you may have a favourite not named Pickard or Podkolzin.
I’m a massive fan of this team’s ability to run four lines successfully. Using centers as proxy for each line, here are the five-on-five goal shares by line:
McDavid (No. 1 line): 9-7 goals (56 percent) in 146 minutes five-on-five. McDavid-Draisaitl are 8-4 goals (67 percent) in 107 minutes. McDavid 1-3 w/o 29, Draisaitl 0-2 without the captain.
Nuge (No. 2 line): 4-3 goals (57 percent) in 106 minutes five-on-five. I’ve been impressed with the passing of this unit, on display for the Zach Hyman goal earlier in the week.
Adam Henrique (No. 3 line): 5-5 (50 percent) in 98 minutes five-on-five. Notable for fine work across the entire series and for playing far more than expected. The gap between the second and third line isn’t large. Connor Brown is having a time.
Mattias Janmark (No. 4 line): 6-2 goals (75 percent) in 75 minutes five-on-five. Early in the series, Janmark was driving down the wing on a two-on-one with zero passing lanes and refused to shoot. I facepalmed and muttered scheiße, like you would, but this line has been wildly effective. Vasily Podkolzin, you are changing the world one rambunctious shift at a time.
I have zero idea how this game goes. Only that I’m loving this team and the run they are on.
As my stream was rather choppy, I also missed the full Hyman penalty at the end. Does anyone have a perspective on that?
I don’t think you can pin this on Skinner, yet at the same time, I will say he didn’t give them the big saves when they needed them.
all three goals were weak but come after break downs defensively.
I thought the Oilers took away the quality high scoring chances Pickard was getting but they can’t turn the puck over and coming back was almost nonexistent.
The Oilers as a team can’t play like that.
cmonn from a booob, I think he played it right. 1 stride forward to attack. It’s bad luck
Close, but no cigar. Sometimes it just happens like that, and you can’t change the result now.
Forget that game and focus on regrouping and winning Game 4.
There were a few ways this game could go for skinner to survive. No matter the reasoning for that goal going in with .4 seconds left, that was not an option for him. He’s cooked.
Similar to the Kings series after game 2. The world is falling, are the Oilers are getting “Kinged”, Skinner is the worst! Blah, blah, blah…
After 5 years of playoffs straight, can we calm the f*fk down already?
Glad the boys lost after that effort, lesson learnt I hope. Playoffs aren’t a cake walk.
Score a few goals and your sh*t don’t stink? I’d put this loss on McD and Drai before Skinner.
Totally agree. I get that there were issues, but we’re up 2-1 in a second round series against the VGK. This is a team we can beat by outplaying. Not a team we need to beat by getting lucky.
Lol
Skinner leaving the net for no good reason completely destroyed all the good work he put in as the night went along, Draisaitl tipped it in his own goal that Skinner should of been tending full stop.
Skinner came out to the top of the crease to take away the corners, as he should have since he knew there would likely be a shot coming with only seconds left in the period. Smith fakes the slapper, which Skinner bought (as would most goalies most of the time), then had to push off a number of times to keep in front of the shot. The puck was going wide until Draisatl tipped it in. Defense wasn’t that great on the play. The puck got through 3 defenders before Smith got it.
Skinner stays in the crease and keeps his net, the game goes into overtime.
My one contention with your assessment is that I don’t think Skinner bit on the slapper. Smith came with so much speed that pushing side-to-side was his only choice to stay flush.
He lost his positioning and net, so the yard sale that followed was a scramble to cover, hence the tip-in.
Should have? Hah, that’s a fun game.
An argument can be made that by coming out of his net to challenge the shooter forced the shot to come from a lower percentage spot on the ice, and it actually forced the shot to go wide… until it was tipped.
It’s all true. I would have expected him to get that paddle down sooner. I also saw him trying to get the puck out of danger but inadvertently passing it to the slot
He lost his net, leaving skaters to defend his position. You can challenge the shooter and keep your net and crease.
Skinner seems to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. Feels like he fails when the last shot wins, I don’t get it but it starting to feel like his black cloud is real.
This is like a reverse of last series with the Oilers at risk of getting King’d
Except in this series the oilers have also squandered a third period, late minute tying goal before regulation expires
Just win the next one at home. Coaches have some work to do. Stone may be out for longer but I don’t trust Vegas with any information. No need for us as fans to panic, Vegas lost an equally demoralizing game and bounced back.
Also, we can disagree here, but this place should not be toxic because we lost. We can vent our frustrations and concerns about the loss and shouldn’t be hating on one another.
I have a friend who blames Bouchard for anything and everything. But we both bleed orange and blue. It’s what binds us on this site
Way too many mistakes from way too many players. Can’t hang this on any one player.
This is my take as well – this is a team loss.
Problem is team makes many mistakes when they don’t trust their goalie and they try to do too much (over compensate). Skinner has been bad all year. This is not a rutt. Team will not play the way they won the last six with Skinner in net. Just a fact.
Final thought for the night:
Can this team ever win a game from wire to wire?
I said the same thing to my son tonight. It sure would be nice to get a lead, hold the lead and win a game. My heart can’t take this team much longer.
You mean like Game 5 in L.A. a couple weeks ago. Yes. Yes they can.
I thought Vegas was lifeless & dead in the water down 0-2 until..
That Draisaitl turnover at the blueline gave them the goal & the lifeline.
Bad change by 29 (& others) on the 3rd goal.
Then the own goal for the cherry on top,
could be a series changer.
Tough night for 29
Has to be way better
If he isn’t injured, he needs to get his act together.
Agreed but, also, if he is injured, he needs to get his act together.
Oilers are up in the series 2-1 with the next game at home (and 2 left in each building).
I’m highly confident noone in that dressing room is over-reacting to a one-goal loss after wining six in a row and being up in the series with home ice advantage.
They lose game 4 & the egregious errors tonight will count for everything.
Don’t be so quick to brush them off as nothing
They haven’t lost game 4.
Oilers are 6-1 in the last 7 games in the playoffs with a 6 game winning streak just broken. That’s a pretty darn good place to be.
Who was in net for the 6 wins??
I think we all know the answer to that. And, I think we all know that for some reason, although we don’t actually know the reason why, the Oilers have played especially poor defence in front of Skinner in the playoffs.
Yep that’s why Nick. They hate Skinner and deliberately play bad for him. You figured it out! Can’t be Skinner has played bad all season.. can’t be that
At no point did I say that they hate Skinner. Please reread what I did say.
Yes you said they play bad defense for Skinner. My point was sarcasm, I was hoping you could pick that up but I guess not. To be direct the non sarcastic answer to you is team tries to over compensate for their poor goaltending that Skinner has provided all year which causes them to make more mistakes. Also have you noticed in statistics that Skinner is almost always on the negative on saves below expected. Quit blaming the team! If Skinner hadn’t come out of nowhere for Campbell and save that season he would be in the AHL for his performance this year and that’s just facts. His numbers are as bad as Campbell’s were when he lost his career.. he needs to be much better or he is done.. he might already be done
Also, at no point, did I say the Oilers are deliberately playing bad for Skinner.
What if skinner sinks to the occasion?
Really??? Could be they play a little too loose in front of Skinner because they expect him to bail them out more than Pickard.when he is playing on a heater?
Frankly, the disappointment should be on all of us. This team has proven repeatedly it will never NEVER be done the easy way.
But five (FIVE!!!) players played the last seven seconds as poorly as possible.
Kulak loses a 50-50 battle. He wins it, OT.
Nurse starfishes. He is least worst, but a single poke check, OT.
Connor is more at fault than first meets the eye. WHY is he that deep? He stays high, he gets the rebound, OT.
Drai is unforgivable. Doesn’t pick up the trailer and tips it in. Either choice, OT.
Skinner boots a rebound into the slot. That is the more egregious error, not the chase into the corner. Simply stop the shot from behind the net or do anything else than what he did, OT.
Vegas rarely makes mistakes. They did on the 3-3. To give it right back on such a nothing play at the end of a period is a deeply frustrating wasted opportunity.
Oilers in 5.
I don’t think that game was Stu’s fault. I also don’t think Stu played a great game. I also know that last goal wasn’t a shot on goal. Looking at an end product while ignoring the factors that got you there is foolhardy. That was a 1on3 and the guy was permitted to make a pass to a trailer that was also unmarked. Stu out waited him and forced the shooter to miss the net.
Why are all the Stu haters completely ignoring HDs and believing they’re 100% stopped every time by an elite goaltender. At least 3 of those goals go in easily on an elite tender.
One. Not three.
Goals 1, 3 and 4 were all very bad.
First goal – he made the first stop as he should. The rebound and/or the man is up to the defender to deal with. Four Oilers around the net and not one takes the rebound or the man. Yes, it would have been nice if Skinner could have hung onto the puck or controlled the rebound, but he did what he was supposed to do.
Second goal – that’s a goal scorer on a breakaway. We expect every Oilers player to score on that. Two forwards defending both barely touch Smith which led to the breakaway.
Third goal – terrible line change. Instead of recognizing his team is changing, Janmark attempts to attack Karlsson crossing the blue line while Karlsson is attacking with speed… that hardly ever works out well for the defender. Janmark should have focused on containing Karlsson. Once Karlsson gets past Janmark, it’s give and go passing in the slot and the puck goes in. The fact that Skinner almost got to it is impressive.
Fourth goal – Skinner came out to the top of the crease to take away the corners as he should have since he knew there would likely be a shot coming with only seconds left in the period. Smith fakes the slapper, which Skinner bought (as would most goalies most of the time), then had to push off a number of times to keep in front of the shot. The puck was going wide until Draisatl tipped it in. Defense wasn’t that great on the play. The puck got through 3 defenders before Karlsson got it.
1st goal- you don’t want him to give up the rebound. Every goalie does it but the great ones do it less.
4th goal- I get why he came out but it’s a gamble to come out that aggressively. It wasn’t completely necessary and he lost that gamble.
2nd and 3rd were brutal defensive breakdowns. Those were extremely high danger chances against.
I disagree 3 was bad. It may have been a 6ft give and go but you can’t give up east-west one-time chances in the slot. That is the highest of high-danger chances.
The shot wasn’t well placed at all. The only reason it had a chance to go in was because Skinner had happy feet. Then he lets it right through himself.
LT said earlier today:
For Ziggy’s sake, I hope that was the case.
With 4 goals on 24 shots for a 0.833, Skinner improved upon his playoff save percentage this year.
Pickard 6-0. Skinner 0-3. When does this become statistically significant vs small sample size?
I mean I would also start pickard next game if he’s healthy and I don’t think anyone here would disagree.
I haven’t seen anyone saying Skinner needs to get the start in G4 if Pickard is ready to go.
Who are you arguing with, or are you just obsessed with posting “SKINNER BAD PICKARD GOOD”
I’m not pissed at any fans, but at management for not getting a goalie at the deadline. Apologies if it seemed any comments were directed at you personally.
Tell us again how L.A was going to whoop our ass and you would of been right if Pickard didn’t save the season for us.
“our” you know you’re not actually part of the team, right?
So out of line. Without a feeling of belonging there is no pro sport, even if usually it’s said in couched terms so people like you don’t attack
This isn’t the forum for making things personal -per the host – about commenters or players
I respectfully disagree with your characterization and assessment of my comment that you’re referring to.
I also think youre being way too sensitive (on behalf of other people). I don’t see any benefit in tone policing or making this comment section feel like a conversation overseen by HR but hey, you do you
If you are going to police other people’s language shouldn’t complain about other’s policing yours.
You are actually opening up an interesting conversation about what it means to identify with any group. But I don’t think you going for that.
Really?
I think he was displaying a win loss record respective to the Oilers goaltenders on this playoff run. I believe the intention was for the readers to ponder about the validity of the numbers due to sample size. You are inferring something else?
Skinner 0 post Season.wins. 0. Pickard 6 wins 0 losses. Is it something else? Doesn’t matter. Playoffs, wins matter. Keep arguing your point, it’s a good debate. Pickard wins, Skinner loses. It’s not up for debate currently.
Lol buddy who are you arguing with, because it’s not me
If Pickard is healthy I want him to start Game 4. Frankly, if he was healthy enough tonight that he would have been able to play if it was an elimination game, I would have started him anyways
Or are you just a troglodyte whose brain is unable to conceive of things in more nuanced terms than “PICKARD GOOD SKINNER BAD”
There are the records, and one other massive thing that hits any team hard.
How many goals like goal 1 and goal 4 have you seen in the last 6 games? Zero.
How many like the pop fly or the one he guided in with his own shoulder early in LA? Zero.
Because they shouldn’t happen.
This guy is panicking like mad and it costs his team.
When is it statistically significant? Depends on your confidence interval and margin error. For a binary outcome event (either the goalie wins or losses) the. Punch it into the formula:
n=(Z²•p(1-p))/E²
Where:
n is required sample size
Z is z-score of corresponding confidence level
p is probabilty (0.5 in this case)
E is error margin
So for a 90% confidence and a 5% margin for error you would need a 271 game sample size
For 50% confidence and a 5% margin for error you would need a 46 game sample size.
But don’t let math get in the way of your feelings.
I wonder how many people defending Skinner actually have ever played hockey.
I wonder how many criticizing him have actually played in goal.
Please read the post by LMHF#1 about goalies having quiet feet.
Dude. I don’t disagree. But Reilly missed the net. Seriously. That wasn’t even a shot on goal…
Lol gatekeeping criticism of Skinner because you played house league pee wee hockey is a good bit
This makes no sense. It’s also personal in nature which has been forbidden
So it makes no sense but you understand it enough to determine it’s Verboten…
@anti-Trust @jt17
Fellas fellas, lets not argue.
Let’s all just agree that Tulsky sucks because he didn’t play hockey, let alone goalie.
I wonder how many people bashing Skinner actually have ever played hockey. There are plenty of players at all levels of the game who have defended him, and there are plenty of players at all levels of the game who have bashed him.
Good to see Skinner handled the scrum well after the game. He seemed calm and collected. We are going to need contributions from him if we are going to keep this ship moving forward. My worry with him has always been what is between the ears i.e. confidence, self doubt, handling the scrum and not being down and out is a good sign.
He’s always like that. It doesn’t help him on the ice.
I have seen him more shaken than he was tonight. Drai seemed to be emotionally shaken in his scrum. Will see how they both respond next game.
For me there is no way he should be talking so much to media. I agree he has issues between his ears and after a game like that it cannot help. He can seem ok but all that’s important is performance and that was iffy, again
Some of the responses to your comment are BS. Skinner made some good saves but also made some awful mistakes. Two goals as I see it were on him. Not good enough
Not that a lot of them didn’t have terrible games
Vegas deserved the win.
Don’t know why you’re getting down vote, The truth hurts. Vegas had a very methodical game, The Oilers look like they’re playing pee wee defense.
The Oilers deserved the loss.
A career back-up 6W-0L
Edmontons finest 0W-3L
It can be a strange game sometimes.
Would love to see skinner win the game of goalie once in a while when it matters. Just doesn’t seem to rise to the occasion, it’s a thing now
Quiet feet are a thing. One of the most important things for a goalie.
This guy doesn’t have em. Made every single opportunity against harder than it had to be, and created an open net where there wasn’t one at the end.
Always makes it more difficult than it has to be.
3/4 directly on him. Zero reason for goal 1 to happen. Karlsson goal goes right through him because he doesn’t set his feet. Goal 4 he abandons the net instead of easily stopping a harmless and rushed shot.
Off to the island of misfit toys for a while after this season – regardless of result.
Thank you for articulating what I can see but can’t express.
He’s a very mediocre goalie talent. Slow to move across his crease and does not track the puck well. Doesn’t handle the puck well behind his net. Gets constantly pulled out of position on rush chances.
And the difference in puck handling/moving it to the D was so evident tonight. Part of why they didn’t get the rush going near as well.
When he’s been good, he looks quiet in the net. That ability has been gone for quite some time. There are guys who the game slows down for – and guys who start freaking out and drown. He’s sadly in the second camp. And keeps showing it.
First goal – he made the first stop as he should. The rebound and/or the man is up to the defender to deal with. Four Oilers around the net and not one takes the rebound or the man. Yes, it would have been nice if Skinner could have hung onto the puck or controlled the rebound, but he did what he was supposed to do.
Second goal – that’s a goal scorer on a breakaway. We expect every Oilers player to score on that. Two forwards defending both barely touch Smith which led to the breakaway.
Third goal – terrible line change. Instead of recognizing his team is changing, Janmark attempts to attack Karlsson crossing the blue line while Karlsson is attacking with speed… that hardly ever works out well for the defender. Janmark should have focused on containing Karlsson. Once Karlsson gets past Janmark, it’s give and go passing in the slot and the puck goes in. The fact that Skinner almost got to it is impressive.
Fourth goal – Skinner came out to the top of the crease to take away the corners as he should have since he knew there would likely be a shot coming with only seconds left in the period. Smith fakes the slapper, which Skinner bought (as would most goalies most of the time), then had to push off a number of times to keep in front of the shot. The puck was going wide until Draisatl tipped it in. Defense wasn’t that great on the play. The puck got through 3 defenders before Karlsson got it.
My grasp of the “quiet feet” dictum started decades ago watching football quarterbacks.
Almost without exception you can tell how the game will go based on that factor.
”Busy feet” generally indicate an overall lack of self confidence.
For goalies, “busy feet” (aka – a scrambly goalie who loses his posts) is indicative of a goalie who does not track and process what’s coming at him quickly enough.
Pretty much the same thing as a QB who can’t go through his reads because he doesn’t trust himself and then reverts to panic.
This.
That Karlsson goal from the rear angle…an absolute indictment.
And when he had to slam himself across the net to stop what should have been a non-event wraparound because he’d just catapulted himself the other way. Many people see a great save…not really if you’re the one who opened up the opportunity when there should have been none in the first place.
True in literally every sport.
Pitchers. Hitters. Golfers. QBs. Goalies. Goes on and on and on.
Deliberate movement vs jittery twitching.
Draisaitl with the game winner.
Every single player on the ice should be ashamed of themselves for that absolute nonsense with 5 seconds to go. That was a 1 on 3. And then they left the trailer open. These muppets have done this twice in as many series. Shame. They gifted them back into the series
Composure is the word that keeps coming to mind.
Vegas showed they had it in spades with how they responded after the 2-0 goal and the 3-3 goal.
Edmonton did not exhibit it through the game, but most noticeably in that final sequence.
Effort and trying hard isn’t the issue – it’s making smart, composed plays when faced with immense pressure in crucial moments.
Here’s hoping they find some between now and G4
Losing the game with Mark Stone out of the line up is inexcusable. Seriously. No gaf by this team for 2 straight games. Out coached. Figure out the box + 1.
Skinner gave his team a chance to win tonight and the other team had something to say about it. They were the more desperate team. And Drai with an awful game with responsibility for at least 2 goals the wrong way. It happens. Regroup and move on. Gotta play their best game the next one.
Oui
Draisaitl’s stick wouldn’t have even been there if the goalie was in the net. I get Skinner was trying to be aggressive but the dude is in the circle for the game winning goal into an empty net. Come on man. And after making some huge saves in the third.
The Oilers were not good enough tonight at all and maybe it is a wake up call, but man, I hope Pickard is healthy for Game 4.
6-0 vs. 0-3. Let’s not overthink this. If Pickard’s ready for Monday, put him in.
Yes, Skinner made some big saves to keep it close, but the team just rallies around Pickard more.
Leon tipped it in.
Save it anyway. It’s a tip, I doubt any goalie could determine that in real time ever. Stop the puck, no matter who tips it.
it sounds like if stu was in net for Steve Smith’s own goal you’d pin it on Skinner lol
Yep, the Steve Smith own goal still lives in peoples minds. This one will likely be forgotten within 4 or 5 years regardless of the outcome of this series.
Grant Fuhr should have been paying a little more attention.
Goalies tend to have a good idea of when a shot is on net or not… that’s part of the idea of coming out of the crease to cut down the angles, part of squaring up to the shooter, part of knowing where the net is.
It feels exceptionally on brand for the Oilers to tie it late on a deflection off a Vegas player just to lose on a deflection off themselves.
Welp.
The winning streak was going to end at some point. Time to start a new one.
Thought Skinner had a good game (7/10), good for him to build some confidence if he needs to start G4. Hopefully Pickard is back. He was not the reason they lost tonight.
Depth scoring was not present tonight – any line without 97 had difficulty generating scoring chances tonight.
Hats off to Vegas, they played a heck of a game and showed some real resiliency bouncing back from an early deficit and a late tying goal.
Hopefully it’s a wake up call and the Oilers can make adjustments.
It’s a series now – let’s get the split at home next time out.
I’m pretty sure there was no confidence gained by skinner after this game. I’m pretty if there was any confidence in him from his team that has left the building too
The team needs Pickard back are we’re in trouble.,
Yup
agreed
He made some crucial stops throughout the game and kept them in it while they were getting their shit pushed in during the 3rd. That’s an improvement over how he played last time out, and hopefully it gives him some confidence if he needs to play again.
Hopefully he doesn’t need to and Pickard is ready for G4
If you think that’s a confidence booster for Skinner, I don’t even know how to respond but WOW
If you don’t know how to respond, then why’d you respond?
WOW
I’d revise it down to a 6/10 game for skinner after some further reflection. Not bad not great, good enough to win a playoff game if your team is playing well, but not good enough to consistently win the in the playoffs with a team that’s not playing well
That was some Keystone Kops-level defending to close out the game.
They just gave Vegas some life.
Stu at the hashmarks for some reason.
https://youtu.be/ifaoKZfQpdA
Second time that the team mounts a comeback goal only to lose it in the dying seconds, this playoffs. Both times Skinner was in net. I’m still in disbelief.
2 things can be true. Skinner didn’t lose us the game, but Pickard needs to be ready for Monday
Skinner made some big saves for sure. And Smith faked a shot. But man I don’t know what Skinner was doing there.
probably the worst game I’ve seen Draisatl play. We win without him.
Skinner sucks – I knew they’d lose in gut wrenching fashion tonight when I learned that Pickard wasn’t going to start. He constantly gets beat in the big moments. I never want to see Skinner start another game for the Oilers.
Zero composure. Goalies are often head cases or become that way – and need a hard reboot in the minors or further away to have a hope again. That’s where he needs to go when this season’s over.
Draisaitll is like they I don’t back check so I back checked lol
Just trying to put some humor in a gut puch way to lose.
Yep! Team is different…Pray Pickard is back next game. All those Skinner fans you can keep cheering for hom after Oil are knocked out in the next 3 games. No chance they win with him. Only chance is our AHL goalie back. Down vote away but im right!
Darnell Nurse on his stomach for good measure.
Same as McDavid, lots of blame to go around on that one. Smith clowned at least 4 Oiler players on that goal.
I think he walked through/around 6-7 oilers for his goals tonight
Team is trying to collapse around their net because they don’t trust their goalie. They don’t trust their goalie because he has been awful all year.. People need to accept he has been bad ALL year. Don’t care what he did last year, garbage all this year.. team does not trust him and play different because of that…
One of the worst games ever by a star player. Responsible directly for 3 of the 4 goals against.
And they say Oilers fans overreact to everything
Unbelievable
Jack never more excited.
Yup. He and Louie were fluffing Vegas all night as if the Knights were leading the series.
Never hope for people to lose their job but Jack and Louie need to go…again on merit. Awful, just pukable aweful
Be thankful you don’t have listen to Darren Pang during the playoffs.
Wow, Oilers have had a few lucky breaks like that. But Leon must feel awful.
Oh Leon………
Wow, lost with less than a second.
Draisatl with an absolutely awful game tonight.
Again… injured
then he should rest
Seriously???????
Draishitl.
Draisatl with an absolutely horrendous game
Drai…ffs…
Crap Drai deflects it in game over…….
What the hell was Skinner doing?!?!?
Coming out to challenge the shooter and make it a harder shot
Diving into the corner isn’t challenging the shooter.
If he stands still – regulation play over.
Absolutely ridiculous.
I agree, but why didn’t he dive back and stop the shot? It should have never gotten through to the crease in the first place
That’s the play in soccer. Because the net is huge. He just has to stay put and there’s no chance. Brutal.
doing Skinner things. Jk. Cocaine.
wow