The Edmonton Oilers have a chance to take a stranglehold on the second-round series against Vegas Golden Knights this evening in Edmonton.
This series has been a revelation for several players, including Calvin Pickard (two wins versus VGK, and an impressive five-on-five save percentage of .919) and Vasily Podkolzin (a stunning 4.17 points-60 and 83 percent goal share at five-on-five during the eight playoff games).
Everything in the playoffs is double and then double again, and someone is going to be the ‘Pisani’ for Edmonton this spring. Who is it? Two candidates above, more on the way and you may have a favourite not named Pickard or Podkolzin.
I’m a massive fan of this team’s ability to run four lines successfully. Using centers as proxy for each line, here are the five-on-five goal shares by line:
McDavid (No. 1 line): 9-7 goals (56 percent) in 146 minutes five-on-five. McDavid-Draisaitl are 8-4 goals (67 percent) in 107 minutes. McDavid 1-3 w/o 29, Draisaitl 0-2 without the captain.
Nuge (No. 2 line): 4-3 goals (57 percent) in 106 minutes five-on-five. I’ve been impressed with the passing of this unit, on display for the Zach Hyman goal earlier in the week.
Adam Henrique (No. 3 line): 5-5 (50 percent) in 98 minutes five-on-five. Notable for fine work across the entire series and for playing far more than expected. The gap between the second and third line isn’t large. Connor Brown is having a time.
Mattias Janmark (No. 4 line): 6-2 goals (75 percent) in 75 minutes five-on-five. Early in the series, Janmark was driving down the wing on a two-on-one with zero passing lanes and refused to shoot. I facepalmed and muttered scheiĂźe, like you would, but this line has been wildly effective. Vasily Podkolzin, you are changing the world one rambunctious shift at a time.
I have zero idea how this game goes. Only that I’m loving this team and the run they are on.
The NHL continues to want the playoffs to be a gladiator match not a hockey match.
Build your team accordingly
I hope Skinner succeeds. I believe in this team. May the Golden Knights bring their worst, and may we still crush them further.
I also think the playoff atmosphere could be could for Rodrigue, even if he doesn’t see the ice.
An news on mcnabb playing? (My guess is he does)
As head of the Cal Pickard fan club I state that I’m confident in Stu Skinner and believe he’ll give the Oilers a chance to win.
And as OP mentioned giving Pickard a break now might be beneficial over the long haul.
Skinner video:
https://x.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1921252473089544446
Thx HH.
Curious to see how this one plays out. I suspect it’ll be a fairly messy but not over the top nasty game—more focused on winning. I don’t think the Oil are really out for blood on Roy or Hertl, nor do I think Vegas is for Arvidsson. All three incidents didn’t have a flavour of malicious intent IMO which is a pretty distinguishing factor in my mind.
Roy certainly had malicious intent. Cross checking a player in the face is not an oops.
Why don’t other teams just take out the opposing goaltender and send them to the IR list? Are they stupid? Vegas didn’t even take a 2 minute penalty on the play!
Another amazing failure from the NHL and it all starts at the top. Parades should be held when Gary Bettman finally retires!
Don’t think there was a penalty on the stolarz play either. Or when Skinner got injured. I see a trend. There was a penalty though when we (forget who) got checked into Hill.
The other Connor.
Skinners career may hang in the balance. If he gets lit up… We know how it ends for him in Edmonton. If he shines like a diamond, he could continue to see the net. My hope is diamonds, my guess is an average middling showing, my fear is getting lit up.
LT your comment on Roy playing being a better outcome for us then him being suspended is gold.
I can’t help but think that the DoPS took the initiative to not suspend Roy, because they had no grounds to suspend Arvi. If they would be allowed to suspend Arvi, Roy would have also been punished. Its a sneaky way to even it up.
Did a single Oiler complain about the play on Pickard? Look on one side and stone is throwing a hissy fit. On the other side, the team is just going out to play.
It will be interesting to see how this game gets played. i could see it boiling over, but I could also see oilers digging in and playing hockey without the shenanigans.
Pisani: a player immortalized by Oilers fans. To say we need a Pisani, is to ask a player who is just ok, to become a possessed goal scoring machine. (18 in 80 games in the season, 14 in 24 playoff games).
I am not in the we need a Pisani to emerge camp. Our depth is shining, celebrate that!
Scoring about 20 goals during the regular season, while being defensively conscious, mind, is better than being just okay.
Tough crowd.
Ok, first, I guess I was speaking solely to his offensive skills, since that’s what we are talking about when we ask for a Pisani.
Tied for 137th in goals during the season, 1st in playoffs overall (12th in g/60, 46th in p/60).
Are you ok with me calling him a goal scoring machine in the playoffs?
I don’t know. Would you like me to say a good scorer instead of ok? Being a bit picky aren’t we? Are you ok with the sentiment being expressed?
Playoff reffing is usually bad but it seems like a lot of dirty plays have been ignored by the league. Two starting goalies injured.
The NHL doesn’t even protect its stars; not protecting its starters should be a non-starter.
I’m pretty down on Vegas going after the goalie. It happened a few times so it seems a plan. Loser tactic. I hope the Oilers pay it forward, too egregious, desperate and low brow for a pass for me. It only stops if the other guys know we will do it back. I hope somebody finds the gray area so it’s not so obvious it brings the league into it because that won’t be our favour
If it is a Pasani we want and need, no better time than now for S. Skinner to step out of the California Closet and take us to the SCF just like last year.
Note: If Skinner does in fact start, that means CP is hurt and retribution on Hertl needs to be doled out right at the start of the game. Take a penalty if you have to but put this guy down. Need to send a message that our goalies are not to be touched.
Also, DOPS says a cross check to the face does not warrant a suspension so the VGK players now know where the line is. Does that same line apply to the Oilers? I think not but would be interesting to find out.
Skinner confirmed that he’s starting (per Rishaug).
Not ideal.
I believe in Stu.
Skinner is a great guy and has a higher ceiling. I hope he dominates. This is a great game to see what he’s got and let Picks rest. Injury aside Picks hasn’t played this many games in a row for a few years.
Pickard is 6W-0L Skinner is 0W-2L what kind of ceiling are you talking about.
The one where he led us to game 7 last year. The team played like garbage the first two games Skinner was in net.
You should use a larger sample size and take into account the team’s play in front of the goalie.
Is anyone shocked that both Florida and Vegas injured their opponents goalie
lol no
Same lines and pairings at morning skate but Skinner in the starters net and Rodrigue on the ice.
Apparently Pickard skated earlier which would be unusual for the starter.
I think this might mean Pick’s is banged up and Skinner might get the start but not official.
Even if Pickard wasn’t hurt, imo this is a good game to give Skinner a start. I get sticking with the hot hand, but Pickard has not started this much in a row for years. Coming home up 2-0 is not the worst time to rotate in Skinner and rest Pickard for further contests. And if he is injured, well then you have a guy who is capable, even if he has fallen off his game this year.
Shot, I’d argue resting Draisaitl for a game and putting J. Skinner on 97s wing is even a potentially beneficial move for the long term (ducks).
I was worried about this.. after seeing Pickard leave the ice and not really celebrate the win in the usual fashion. I really hope Skinner can come in and earn back trust and that the team plays as well as they have been in front of him. I hope he battles like Picks and shows Vegas it doesn’t matter who is in net..
Me too he tweaked something hopefully this is precautionary because if Skinner shits the bed again we’re going to need Pickard to get the W next game. I expect Vegas to exploit Skinners less than stellar puck handling ability. I’ve gone from we got this to Ooh No if Pickard doesn’t return.
Rishaug tweeting that Skinner is starting. Guess Picks is hurt.
Oh crap
Maybe. Rishaug didnt actually say that. He said its unusual he wasn’t out there for morning skate. Knobby has pulled the smoke and mirrors before.
We wait.
Skinner/Rodrigue on the ice for morning skate.
Given the starter the skate off would not be unusual but, from accounts, he skated earlier which would be unusual.
Truth be told: (1) Stu could come in and have a very solid game and (2) a game off for Pickard for rest likely isn’t a bad thing either, presuming this is just a bump/bruise and he’d be ready for Monday.
Daily Faceoff has Pickard out day to day.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations#powerplay
Nuge (No. 2 line): 4-3 goals (57 percent) in 106 minutes five-on-five. I’ve been impressed with the passing of this unit, on display for the Zach Hyman goal earlier in the week.
Kane/Nuge/Hyman is 3-1 goals and 76% expected goals with a growing sample.
That is real and spectacular!
It appears to me that Drai is less than 100% which is becoming an annual thing in the playoffs (sigh) – its amazing that, year after year, he can put up all time numbers while being far less than 100% (seemingly).
I presume that what he’s (likely) dealing with is an extension of his late season injury – he too quite a bit of time off and, if he’s still not 100%, well, I don’t think a week off will get him there but, at the same time, if the Oilers can close this series out in less than 6 games and gets some rest, that would be ideal.
Besides the obvious maybe that’s why he’s had Leon on Connor’s wing to protect him while he’s dealing with his injury. I’m loving all the lines they’re all taking on their own identity. Which line is going to give the Vegas Knights fits tonight? I think it’s going to be the Kane line.
What about Drai’s game makes you think he’s less than 100% other than the fact nobody is 100% because it’s playoff hockey?
He doesn’t seem to have his normal power when driving through he neutral zone.
He doesn’t seem as dominant in puck protection in the offensive zone.
He’s deferred to McDavid a number of times for faceoffs.
The opportunity is there for the team that absolutely hates doing anything the easy way. Vegas knows they need this.
If they get in the headspace that doing things the easy way IS the hard way then maybe they find a way lol.
GOilers! Clap Clap!
There has been increasing speculation that Emberson could be replaced by Stecher.
Emberson’s 5v5 minutes have been dwindling, during which time he has been physically dominated and has posted some of the worst fancy stats among the D-corps, with a 2 GF to 1 GA ratio.
The prevailing thought has been that he is in the lineup for his penalty-killing ability. However, his PK work has not been strong either.
In defense of the defender, it seems that such limited minutes make it difficult for him to get into a rhythm.
If Stecher is healthy, his experience—and certainly his analytics—make him the more logical choice at 5v5, particularly since Emberson isn’t contributing effectively on the PK.
Knoblauch has shown, however, that his previous relationships with players from past teams influence his roster decisions, and one has to wonder if that is starting to be the case here.
I thought Stecher was very good down the stretch – he had clearly passed Emberson on the depth chart before getting hurt.
I can’t recall who but someone on this site did post his playoff history when I suggested his size might be an issue – the intel showed very solid playoff numbers, traditional and advanced in a decent playoff sample.
I do think Stech in for Emberson is an option but the PK issue is real. I know the PK has been lit up with Emberson on it but I don’t think that means that Emberson is not a good PK guy and adding an inferior PK guy in his place isn’t ideal.
Truth be told, on a 6-game winning streak and on home ice with more match-up control, I don’t think this is the game the switch is made but it could come.
Generally agree with your post. It wouldn’t hurt to bring Stetcher into the rotation for one game and get a look.
Having a history with Brown probably helped resurrect him from the form he arrived to the team. He’s thriving on the third line with Freddy and Rico.
I’ve been baffled at the delpoyment at times, but it seems like the buttons KK has been pushing have paid dividends.
Emberson has played for coach K.K in the AHL. As for Stetcher he’s always had the ability it’s injuries that get him as he plays a physical game bigger then his size. I think it’s a good time to give Vegas a different look especially on the PK.
Stecher has done some PK. Not much but 2nd unit level stuff. Cant be worse than what we’ve had so far.
Knoblauch and Draisaitl recognized the virtues of Podkolzin early, over the whining of the Oilers mob for the guy prominent in The NHL Official Guide and Record Book.
Podz wasn’t scoring but he was a net contributor to the line early and often.
Arvy wasn’t getting it done most of his time with Drai.
I believe Woodguy had some posts later in the regular season that was showing how Podkolzin is a guy that’s going to pop real and spectacular at some point soon.
Oilers should be looking to extend him as soon as possible.
Not to be a jerk about it, but Roy playing in this series may be a net positive compared to a suspension.
Perfect scenario: Roy ends up being the main culprit on the Oilers’ winning goal!
Any news on Pickard and if he’s starting tonight? I hope his leg isn’t feeling worse for wear today. Vegas tried accidentally running him 3-4 times we all know If we stand up for him will get a penalty and with our PK yikes. When Kane accidentally ran into Hill he got jumped by a couple of Knights with no penalty. Then of course HNIC goes on how lucky Kane was not to get a penalty yet so boo when it’s Pickard getting run.
It occurred to me that Oilers goaltending has been anything but constant over the McDavid era. While Tampa has been able to rely on Vasi every playoff, Winnipeg has been Hallebuyck-or-Bust, while here’s a list of Oilers goalies to win a playoff game since 2017:
Cam Talbot
Mikko Koskinen (play-in series)
Mike Smith
Stu Skinner
Cal Pickard
Ride the hot hand
Samanski, burying goals at the Worlds for Germany!
Do you know anything about this kid? Will he get PP time in Bakersfield? It’ll be interesting to see if this kid can produce 5 on 5 if Bowman can find him a centre. I’m actually excited about the Condors. Clattenburg will be worth the price of admission if he can stay healthy.
I know nothing about him.
Samanski is one tall, skinny drink of water.
6’5″ 189.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=215089
I think if the Oilers are to win the cup they need to sweep this series.
Attrition hits west coast teams harder due to a much worse travel schedule. I believe this was the case last year.
Vegas is going to be at their filthy best tonight. Expect more interference, clutching, hooking and just dirty. We have to be prepared for that.
I think we saw their filthy best last game and it was not good enough.
In game 1 we scored with 3 minutes left game 2 goes to OT. How nice would it be to see a lead where Stone and Pietrangelo being crybabies is on full display.
As a process>results guy I find this playoff fascinating.
Looking around the league I see an absolutely even playing field with 7 good to very good teams. But I don’t see a great one. All of these teams are very strong defensively. Almost every night one team or another is being held to <20 shots. I don’t see a Colorado 2022 among us.
The Oilers have shown another gear. They’ve played 2.5 games of dominant hockey that I believe is at a level no one else can get. But it’s so important to acknowledge game state which I’m not sure has ever been as big a factor as it has been in these playoffs. They are dominant when trailing.
As I said before Game 2 it’s still unclear whether that level of dominance is due to what they are doing or whether it’s due to what the opposition has chosen to do; which is sit back and try to protect a lead.
Protecting a lead the Oilers have been just as crappy as everyone else, blowing a two goal lead that you could feel coming a mile away.
In neutral game states they’ve also been quite poor falling behind in almost every game.
Until they show something different is positive or neutral game states I think you have to lump them in with everyone else and call this an 8 team race.
Agreed. Until or if they get to a place where they can bring it most of the time they are vulnerable to pushes and GA. Especially late with their inability to figure out how to score on an empty net
Maybe as time goes KK can reign them in on the system, which I think they still have lapses with it. I think they get lost on when and where to pressure, and they can brake down in coverage at times. Vegas had issues as well but were better last game
Let them have it boys, no mercy
Oil do have 3 or 4 en’s
Its what they’re doing. Game 5 against LA was dominance from puck drop to end of game. They didnt go down 5 minutes into that game.
It was a repeatable template for Vegas game 1 where although they were down, it was a penalty. They rolled 5v5 after that. Vegas didn’t try to sit on a lead for 55 minutes. I would also argue 4v5 is not a neutral game state regardless of score.
This team, rolling on all cylinders, can dominate 5v5 and have done it against 2 excellent teams in all game states. Key word is can. It’s the floor ceiling discussion again.
FWIW, Doughty said in his exit the gameplan wasn’t to sit back and the coach never said to. It ‘just happened’. To me that screams they gave the the Oil an inch and they took over. Once they get multiple shifts they put teams in a blender and it accumulates fast.
I worried that Edmonton is going to pay big time for that apparent missed call on Arvidsson.
They already have with the lack of a suspension on Roy. They just might end up spending most of game three on the PK. This league is an absolute joke.
I can’t believe a fourth-liner escaped without a suspension it doesn’t get any nastier than that when it comes to cross checks to the face. If he breaks his jaw Roy probably gets 10 games this is setting up a bad precedent as this makes no sense. If that was Kane doing it to Stone it would be 3 games and the HNIC panel would be losing its shit for more.
This is what I don’t like about the nhl
if Vegas won that game or they were up 2-0 Roy would have gotten suspended.
Surely, It’s very transparent. Pietrangelo proved that last time. Its hard to support this league.
They do indeed operate on a weird logical framework.
If McNabb wasn’t potentially injured, Roy probably would have got a game. If McNabb wasn’t injured and Vegas was up 2-0, then Roy certainly gets a game.
By the NHL’s logic punishment is viewed not by the action itself, but by the context.
We can’t have Vegas down two defensemen, that wouldn’t be fair…
When Gary is gone maybe we get lucky and get a fellow that gets the value of raising the quality of how the league and games are run. If you don’t respect the product, even if it’s good and success is happening, things can go south. Happens in every industry. They shouldn’t be happy as 4th fiddle in NA major leagues. Probably actually 6th fiddle with a couple of empty seats ahead of them and soccer and women’s Bball coming hard
I hope they don’t get complacent and bury these clowns. Vegas will come out guns blazing and won’t try any shenanigans until they’re behind.,
A guy like Arvidsson, a 30 goal scorer that signed “to play with Drai”, being fully bought in to playing 10 minutes on the fourth line – THAT is needed for Stanley!
Adds depth, for sure.
But let’s be honest here — if Arvy was playing as a 30 goal scorer, he’d be in the top-6.
Instead he’s been broken or doing his best impression of Taylor Fall without the dynamic speed.
Was disappointed in his regular season (on the balance) but he’s been improving in the playoffs.
Arvi had been appropriately re-slotted as a bottom-6 energy player and has been fantastic in the role.
Meanwhile Evander Kane has re-claimed his spot as a top-6 winger.
All is right with the world.
Imagine going up 3-0 in the series – that would be something.
I am going to go out in a limb and anticipate/predict McDavid and Draisaitl to have better games tonight.
Let us pray
🙏🏒🥅🏆
That prediction is not far off saying that the sun rises in the morning.
29 PP goal + 2 apples
97 1 EV goal + 2 apples.
I am elated the club is back home and sleeping in their cozy Edmonton beds. Edmonton fans are the best in the game and my gut tells me the team is going to need them. Vegas will be full on desperate in both games. Especially if the Oilers get an early lead. Hopefully they have a minute to work out the special teams issues. Go Oilers!
I think this game boils over. I hope it’s at the beginning so hockey can be played for most of the game. If not, expect the losing team in the 3rd to be out for blood.
Podkolzin is my Pisani, no question, in fact I’ve been waiting for it.
So for anyone watching at home, this is a 3 game suspension:
https://x.com/Rupper17/status/1881007248484471261
This is a fine:
https://x.com/spittinchiclets/status/1920887262067224988
I suspect Kane and Frederic will have somethings to say about this in game. But please, just not in the last 5 minutes or Nurse will probably get a game and Calgary will get a draft pick.
Sticks Up… Go Oilers!
From us having watched a fair few KK coached games I expect the Oilers will be there to play not brawl. Cassidy is also a smart coach, they don’t have a lot of leeway, like the Oilers many playoffs
If anything happens it’s probably pretty early. Kane doesn’t need to settle Frederic’s score, and TF may not be able to fight yet because of that crosscheck. Kane may have something to say about the ‘accidentals’ on Pick however, one way or another
Save the shenanigans ’til Hill is chased for Samsonov and the outcome is assured.
I don’t expect any “retribution” – these guys have their eyes locked on the big prize.
Propectumungous!
London and Muskegon both find themselves in unfamiliar territory–trailing in a series. Will it be the wake-up call they need, or the beginning of the end? We wait.
A reminder that all three CHL finals are on TSN. Check local listings.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5:30 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Grimshaw time.