Game 5, Round 2: Oilers at VGK

by Lowetide

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Lewis Grant

The Athletic has the best article I’ve read on the conundrum of signing Bouchard. I think Luszczyszyn’s model highly overrates Bouchard, but his article takes a very conservative estimate of his own model for Bouchard.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6353924/2025/05/14/oilers-evan-bouchard-nhl-playoffs-contract/

My own take, from two years and four months back: sign Bouchard to a long-term deal *before* you deal away Tyson Barrie and give Bouchard prime PP minutes.

At that point, Bouchard’s boxcars were 62-3-18-21. Probably could have gotten him on a 5X$4M deal. Maybe 8X$4.5M. It would have been a risk, as he had been struggling, but one that I would have probably done.

Then, four months ago, I said, re-sign him while he’s struggling.

But no, in both cases, we wait until the off-season, when he’s at peak value. Just like Darnell Nurse.

The article shows the drop-off of offensive defensemen from age 26. It’s terrifying. This next contract is going to be an overpay.

90s fan

Why would Bouch sign four months ago at his lowest value? We do have to remember there are two parties at the table. You can’t force him to sign in the struggling months. As well theres nothing to say he accepts those struggling months as the model to base his contract on.

In all of these short term deals that come back to bite us there is one cause: not having the cap space at that time. Many times it’s because we sign periphery players before the main deal. Like Kassian instead of locking up Nurse, Skinner and Arvi before locking up you know who. Heck we should have seen the Bouch problem coming. Arvi is a double whammy cause it now interferes with that. Holloway at 2M would give us space for Bouch with a little less worry.

PennersPancakes

Takes 2 to tango, just like UFA signings when fans ask “why didnt we sign player X for that!?”

Gollum

They should have ‘compelted’ him to sign while he was stuggling 😉

OriginalPouzar

No change this morning:

Tony Brar https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f680.svg

EDM lines & pairs – Wednesday Skate:

RNH – McDavid – Hyman

Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen

Kane – Henrique – Brown

Frederic – Janmark – Perry

• Arvidsson, Skinner, Ryan, Jones

Kulak – Bouchard

Nurse – Stecher

Walman – Klingberg

• Emberson

Skinner

Rodrigue

Reja

Stecher and Nurse basically solidify our D no weak links give ice time based on performance. That was Stechers 1st playoff game it’s too bad he was unavailable last year. It’s all about health with stecher because when he’s playing well he makes a difference. He took a nasty elbow and is not shy of physicality of the Vegss forwards. If the D have another performance like last game it’s going to be hard to break-up these pairings moving forward.

danny

If Ekholm returns next round what will the pairings be?

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Kulak
Walman Klingberg

?

wkorkie

To Lowetide’s point yesterday about Bouchard being a potential target for an offersheet, I see St. Louis was gloating and taunting on Twitter. The brashness of that tells me that we may be entering an era where no RFA is underpaid. In my opinion, that does not bode well for teams with a self-imposed salary cap. Let the games begin.

Reja

Instead of giving Barrie that 2nd contract Bouchard should of been a regular 3rd pairing 2-PP quarterback 2 years earlier. Holland could of signed him long term years ago now you have to pay the piper or trade him for a haul. Holland is not a G.M that develops players he’s all about buying them. We do not have 1 player from Hollands tenure (5 years) on the roster.

Lewis Grant

No, the Barrie 2nd contract was really smart, because it kept Bouch off the PP and kept him from inflating his numbers. That gave us an opportunity to sign him cheap.

Which, of course, we didn’t do. We traded Barrie. This allowed 62-3-18-21 Bouchard to score a point per game over the next 30 games, and to highly inflate his long-term value. Then we signed him to a bridge deal because a long-term deal was no longer a cap possibility, knowing that we would pay him *even* more on a long-term deal two years later.

90s fan

Edit: one player drafted under his tenure.

Well I mean he did develop two players who left promptly at the end of his tenure. Most likely because he thought they needed more time to develop than they did.

How have other GMs (not named Chia) who signed with a team already in their expected windows done it?

Sierra

Looking for another solid start to the game by the Oilers. Let’s get the 1st goal, again, and pour it on afterwards. Can’t wait.

leadfarmer

Need to come out hungry tonight cause Vegas is going to be desperate.
Really wish the Jets could do some damage to the Stars but it’s not looking very promising.

Reja

Need to keep targeting Pietrangelo he’s been coughing up the puck a lot as a result plus he’s a asshole. My dream is we get up 2-0 and watch the Knights submission.

OriginalPouzar

Evan Bouchard’s playoff production is historic:

Bob Stauffer

NHL Defence Playoff

Scoring Leaders (Last 3 Playoffs):

#1. Evan Bouchard:

14-47-61/47 GP/+14

#2. Miro Heiskanen:

7-22-29/39 GP/ -6

#3. Cale Makar:

7-18-25/24 GP/+1

#4. Brandon Montour:

11-13-24/45 GP/+2

JJS

That is breathtaking. Generational?

Harpers Hair

Carefully crafted to avoid the 4th season when Makar scored 29 points in 20 games (and won a cup and the Norris Trophy) while Bouchard scored 9 points in 16 games.

Moonlight

Add Makar’s 29 points and Bouchard still leads. In 18 less games. What am I missing?

DevilsLettuce

Add in Makar’s 4th season without even adding in Bouchard’s and Evan is still clearing him… Ooof

€√¥£€^$

Lets compare the 2 best offensive defensemen’s career playoff output.

Career

Makar 79 22 63 85 +23
1.08 points per game over 7 playoff seasons

Bouchard 63 17 53 70 +10
1.11 points per game over 4 playoff seasons

Both are impressive, but Bouchard has much more impressive totals in recent seasons.

Pretty good for a non-Norris candidate, I would say.

Last edited 58 minutes ago by €√¥£€^$
Hoppers Hare

70 is a bigger number than 54.

Reja

Do you think he’ll get offer sheeted especially if we win the Cup. With the cap going up Conroy-Holland-Armstrong could do it just to fuk us over.

Ranford.85

But but but…. your drivel is tiresome.

Last edited 53 minutes ago by Ranford.85
Side

So your argument is to emphasize that Makar has declined since then?

Bold strategy there, HH.

OriginalPouzar

If only Makar was able to score more than 1G and 5P in 7 playoff games this year his team would still be playing…..

ristojalo

You should write about this on your successful blog.

Neumann

In 10 games the Oilers have dressed 22 skaters. 15 of them have scored goals. The skaters that haven’t scored are JSkinner and Kapanen from the forward group and Kulak, Klingberg, Emberson, Stecher and JBrown from the D. 4 of those players have only played one game.

The Oilers have 9 players who have scored 3+ goals. 15 players with a goal.
The Panthers have 7 players who have scored 3+ goals. 13 players with a goal.
The Jets have 6 players who have scored 3+ goals. 13 players with a goal.
The Canes have 5 players who have scored 3+ goals. 14 players with a goal.
The Stars have 5 players who have scored 3+ goals. 11 players with a goal.
The Knights have 5 players who have scored 3+ goals. 13 players with a goal.
The Capitals have 5 players who have scored 3+ goals. 10 players with a goal.
The Leafs have 4 players who have scored 3+ goals. 11 players with a goal.

Lewis Grant

This is the biggest reason to believe the Oilers are a serious Cup contender.

ArmchairGM

The Oilers have won 7 of their last 8 closeout games. This team doesn’t let their opponents up when they have them on the mat.

Six of the eight were 1 goal games (5-1-0), two were 2 goal games (2-0-0). Even the 2 goal games were 1 goal leads until the last few minutes of the third period, showing the team’s patience and focus in closing out their opponents.

Reja

I think we beat L.A with skill and now we’re taking out Vegas with brawn. To win a Cup you need to play in the back alley as well as the street. Let’s finish of Stone-Pietrangelo and the rest of these pricks tonight.

Scungilli Slushy

Will McCrimmon or McPhee takes things apart if they lose tonight or later? Flames, Canucks, Kings, Vegans

Darth Tu

You know who popped into my head the other day – Mark Recchi. What a player he was (2006 SCF result aside). Maybe Perry (with a different play style) is our Recchi for this year.

godot10

Doug Weight went to Carolina. Taylor Hall went to Carolina. Is this a sign?

Reja

When we win the Cup if it’s not Florida I hope it’s against Carolina.

Moonlight

I’d like that or Toronto

dcsj

Just win, baby!

Lewis Grant

Truly, beating any of Carolina, Florida, or Toronto would be unbelievably sweet.

Losing to one of them, on the other hand? I can’t even bear the thought.

OriginalPouzar

Maybe but I would say that Doug Weight was a MUCH greater Oiler (and I have nothing against Taylor Hall).

anonymous

Perry is the only player that made my all time hate list and made it off. Pretty sure I posted with disgust when they signed him.

It wasn’t that long of a list Fleury, D. Hatcher, Patrick Roy and Perry.

Scungilli Slushy

Hatcher, man did I dislike him

anonymous

Yeah, I didn’t think he should be allowed to play.

LMHF#1

A minor league goon should have been called up to end his career. The man wouldn’t have had to work another day from all the “bonuses” he would’ve received from around the league. Disrespectful piece of trash.

anonymous

Yeah, he really was a piece of shit. One of those cases where I feel free judging him while not knowing him personally.

Ranford.85

Random question… Theo Fleury or MarcAndre Fleury?

anonymous

Theo

Reja

For his size greatest player ever. He was one of the few Flames that I didn’t hate.

anonymous

Yes, he was. Also very easy to hate.

leadfarmer

Who in the world has Marc Andre on their all time hate list?

dcsj

My list included all the Broad Street bullies (until Linseman became an Oiler!!!)

Scungilli Slushy

I pulled up NST to see who’s doing what these playoffs. Nothing much there pointing to anyone having trouble or being done, except Skinner and Nurse

Both are at the bottom in GF% and HDGF%. Skinner got destroyed all around in 11:01 of 5v5 TOI and was on for 3 GA. Barring necessity I don’t think we will be seeing him. That was a big mistake by JJ. I thought it was an ok deal solely based on 5v5 scoring, didn’t look into anything else

But JJ had a lot of resources at his disposal and should have seen he’s a one trick pony that was a terrible fit for team looking for two way players with some hands. Should have kept the kid

Romanski

Regarding the Nurse numbers, he had an excellent game with Stetcher. Hopefully they can continue to succeed together because when Nurse is playing well, this D group can be very good.

Scungilli Slushy

Yes I really hope he can keep it rolling

Scungilli Slushy

If we get lucky and Ekholm makes it back in I wonder what Coffey does

Pretendergast

Should have known the guy that scored 40 goals and got 11 minutes in his first ever playoff action was a scrub. All those goals were his fault too. Stu was on it that game…

Should’ve kept the kid with a career high of 6 goals and 9 points who was benched and sent down the majority of the year for being a defensive liability.

Around and around we go on the hindsight train again. Jackson should’ve known the lotto numbers too.

Last edited 3 hours ago by Pretendergast
leadfarmer

Skinner was very much a poor bet.

Scungilli Slushy

My point being he obviously has aspects of his game the coaches don’t appreciate. Reg season he was 12th in TOI/GP for forwards and scratched 10 games. I don’t recall him being injured. His 40 goal season was 6 seasons ago

It’s the best league in the world, ability and quality are fair expectations for everyone. If they can’t figure such things out I think they are incompetent. Good managers can assess players. They should also know when young players are ready to take a step. Holloway was 3rd in forward 5v5 TOI/GP on the Blues. Or has Montgomery lost the plot?

Holloway Reg Season 5v5
GF% 63.04
HDCF% 56.87 (best for F)
HDGF% 56.10
Elite 26.6
Middle 42.5
Grit 30.9

Skinner
GF% 50.77
HDCF% 53.92
HDGF% 53.85
Elite 21.5
Middle 43.1
Grit 35.5

Skinner has worse results on a better team while being sheltered more. He also had somewhere around 200 even strength minutes with Connor Leon or both

90s fan

Vegas had the third highest point total behind jets and caps. Tied for 3rd highest goal differential with caps behind jets and lightning.

– The lightning are out, and Vegas, Caps, Jets are down 3-1. Yikes

– if you are a team with a chance to beat one of these teams in 5 (or if you’re FLA, and already have beat TBL in 5), you gotta feel confident.

kinger_OIL

— the past doesn’t predict the future always however the attributes of Stanley cup champion include generally most all of:

1) recent cup winner with relative same core
2) recognized individual season trophy winners
3) runs of multiple round playoff wins with core

— FLA CAR VGK DAL and LFGOILERS are “typical” Cup winners.

Elgin R

Trying really hard to see how Canes make the list. Last and only cup win 19 years ago. Slavic won the lady bing (twice) good for him but you have to go back to 2008 to find a winner who hoisted the cup the same year (Datsyuk).

OriginalPouzar

Jeff Marek was on ON Everyday with Tyler and Liam yesterday and he wondered if Perry would maybe retire if the Oilers won the cup this season.

For me, it looks like he is really enjoying playing so I think he would come back but, either way, I sure hope we find out with certainty…..

Durag

It would have been a tragedy for him to finish out his career with a sad sack Chicago team. He loves being in the thick of the fight.

Scungilli Slushy

I think he comes back, too much fun and another chance

OriginalPouzar

Tough task but finishing off the Knights tonight, in 5 games, would be amazing and presumably benefit the team going forward.

Pretendergast

Was at game 6 when they beat us last time. Would be oh so sweet revenge to beat them in their own barn and let their fans feel that.

Max 3 cracks at it, starting tonight!

GOilers! Clap clap!

90s fan

So who’s on LTs retiree list? Henrique seems to be doing just fine at 35. Pickard at 33 looks like he’s got lots of value left, Kanes at 33 is dominating, Hyman at 31 was a scoring machine, Hyman at 32 is being called Shaq Hyman so I think he’s got many years, Nuge at 32 is a year off of some very crooked numbers, he’s been just fine. Janmark, Skinner, Klingberg at 32? Ek at 34, having major injuries this year does not bode well, but he’s high end and can play if he wants to!

My conclusion: petriangelo at 35 is getting too old to be bashed in waves by the Edmonton young’ns. Go enjoy the spring with a drink on the patio! You can start relaxing tomorrow!

JJS

Despite last game, I think Henri is near the end. He hasn’t shown up in good places very often this year. Jeff Skinner?

Pretendergast

Ya just leaving it on a supreme cliffhanger like that. Guess we’ll see it on the next Athletic article.

jesse r

Growing up, my grandfather’s favourite player was Stevie Yzerman, and that instilled in me a great appreciation for skilled forwards who find a way to carve out a second act in a new role. I’m not saying Corey Perry is Steve Yzerman, but I am rooting for him.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Please tell me this is when you were growing up and not when your grandfather was, because I am feeling old enough as it is today already.

jesse r

Yes, this was when I was growing up, don’t worry. My grandpa, who played a few games in goal for the Edmonton Flyers in the ’40s, was born in Saskatoon in 1917 so I assume his favourite player growing up was probably Newsy Lalonde.

Kert

Edmonton Flyers in the ’40s

Makes me think the R in your handle stands for Rollins.

RockySLeafs

Dallas looks awfully good, but let’s worry about the task at hand first

Scungilli Slushy

The Canes as well. But they are playing the two top reg season teams, who always seem to turn out to be paper tigers in playoffs. Along with the Leafs

OriginalPouzar

Oilers would have home ice vs. the Canes (and Panthers).

godot10

Dallas has three defensemen, and the best one is just returning after being out of action for three months after knee surgery.

It will be the same as any series for the Oilers. If the Oilers can avoid defending, they will win. If they are forced to defend, they will lose. This is sort of generically true for any team but it is true to a superlative degree with the Oilers. The Oilers are A Tale of Two Teams. They are the best of teams. They are the worst of teams.

Jethro Tull

Players change and coaches change and owners change, but it’s weird how teams retain their identities. The Oilers have always been a ‘we’ll score one more goal than you’ and been blessed with the greatest offensive talent ever. Yet they always have a yearning to play like a defensive juggernaut. Soak up pressure, build the play and then score. Our strength always seems to be, separate the man from puck and get that puck to the best player in the world in their zone as quickly as possible. The last game was a great example of this. I totally agree with you. If we sit back, we’re done. If we go after them, we’ll have a great chance.

JimmyV1965

I think the Jets have played much better against Dallas than St. Louis. Helleybuck has been the second best goalie again, but I think he’s been much better in this round. Scoring has been an issue for the Jets in this series. Less than 2 goals in each of their three losses.

Sierra

Agreed Oettinger is winning the series so far.

Stars are repeatedly being Hellebuyck high glove side.

OriginalPouzar

Dallas looked very good heading in to the conference finals last year. Remember, they had better goaltending and were “so much deeper” – how did those things, and the series, play out?

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