I wrote those words on this blog a year ago. The Oilers had just moved on from the Dallas Stars and were full sail for the Final.
The big scoring star was Connor McDavid (3-7-10 in six games). He delivered 3.06 pts-60 at five-on-five during the series. Evan Bouchard did his wizardy on the power play, where he had four assists. Zach Hyman chipped in three goals, Adam Henrique delivered from the depth lines.
GWG’s went to McDavid, Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and, and, and……Mattias Janmark. Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm led the defense in overall icetime. McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman were the top forwards in TOI.
McDavid-Draisaitl played together for 24 minutes five-on-five, going 2-0 goals. In 93 solo minutes (without Leon), the captain helped Edmonton to a 5-4 edge. Solo Leon was 1-2 in 87 minutes in the game state.
Bouchard was 8-2 on-ice goals, Darnell Nurse was 3-7 goals both numbers five-on-five.
Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg all played in the series, Broberg impressing me most.
Skinner played all the minutes, .922 save percentage.
This year’s series will be different than the last one. There are no guarantees. I think Oilers fans should feel good about this team entering the second half of the playoffs.
They have elite skill, a spine, depth across the roster and the kind of battle-hardened determination that can only come after getting so close without winning it all. The captain will set his jaw, say to hell with this noise, and lead the way. That’s a script that is as likely as any for this series.
New for The Athletic: What Oilers prospect Matt Savoie accomplished in his first AHL season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6362824/2025/05/18/matt-savoie-stats-ahl-bakersfield/
My observations looking at Natural Stat Trick data, for the upcoming series:
1. DAL PP is fire, 12 GF, leads the pack in the NHL. Versus the Oilers’ 6 GF. Dallas is riding a PP shooting percentage nearly double that of the Oilers.
2. That said, DAL has two GA against on the PP. Small sample size, but vulnerable to shorties?
3. The picture is inverted when it comes to the PK, with EDM with a league leading 11 GA, and Dallas with only 5 tallies against shorthanded. They are riding a scorching PK SV percentage while EDM’s is in the toilet, near the bottom. DAL is leading the league, in a bad way, with 30 high danger chances against, so it’s clearly Jake killing it in net on the PK.
4. Even strength: this is EDM’s strength. 53% CF%, which is top 3 amongst remaining teams (top 2 if FLA gets knocked out).
5. DAL is at the bottom of the league in the ES possession war, with a 45% CF%, well, just a cut above TO, who I argue will be out soon.
6. DAL is getting eaten up on ES goals against, leading the pack with 30 against, torpedoing their ES GF-GA ratio. I cannot underscore enough how much the Oilers are killing it at scoring even strength. Leading the league by a huge margin (37 ES GF, next team is 30 GF, Florida).
7. DAL can’t put it in the net even strength, their shooting percentage is in the toilet at 8.4%. Bad luck, which will regress? Or systems? Look for EDM ES scoring to come down as they are riding an unsustainable shooting percentage of 12%.
ES shooting percentage has to remain around 12-15% or the PP and PK have to improve drastically. If either of those things don’t happen, the team is in big trouble.
It’s important to note that 8 of those 11 were vs LAK.
First 3 games vs LAK they allowed 7 PK goals, then swapped out Walman and put in Bouchard on the PK.
In the last 3 games vs LAK they allowed 1 GA, and allowed 3 GA vs VGK in 5 games.
So they’ve allowed 4 GA in the last 8 games on the PK after the Walman/Bouchard swap
It’s not the Achilles Heel that the raw PK GA suggest imo.
An Ekholm return would likely also improve the PK.
I’m hoping for a Drai and Rantanen hard match. Let the rest take care of itself
So curious with this extra time where does this put Ekholm? I see him out there skating
Ekholm on the ice for this morning’s optional skate.
Rishaug says it’s not determined if he’ll travel with the team for games 1 and 2.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
Dallas [C2] vs. Edmonton [P3]
Wednesday, May 21 8 p.m. Edmonton at Dallas ESPN, ESPN+, SN, CBC, TVAS
Friday, May 23 8 p.m. Edmonton at Dallas ESPN, ESPN+, SN, CBC, TVAS
Sunday, May 25 3 p.m. Dallas at Edmonton SN, CBC, TVAS, ABC, ESPN+
Tuesday, May 27 8 p.m. Dallas at Edmonton SN, CBC, TVAS, ESPN, ESPN+
* Thursday, May 29 8 p.m. Edmonton at Dallas ESPN, ESPN+, SN, CBC, TVAS
* Saturday, May 31 8 p.m. Dallas at Edmonton SN, CBC, TVAS, ABC, ESPN+
* Monday, June 2 8 p.m. Edmonton at Dallas ESPN, ESPN+, SN, CBC, TVAS
MT or ET?
I expect very few penalties as the refs have put away the whistles this favours the Oilers as we can roll 4 lines and 3 defensive pairs. Are we a better team than last year at this time? Is Dallas a better team? If not for the PK and PP woes we are a dominant team. I expect lots of traffic and bang, bang goals it’s time for Hyman-Kane to get that scoring touch really going this series.
Stars vs Oilers…brings back memories of the good old days. Doug Weight, Mike Modano, Zubov. Those were great series. Epic, actually.
Fortunately, these Dallas Stars don’t have quite as stacked roster. They have plenty of weak links starting with Codi Ceci averaging nearly 22 minutes per game. He’s in familiar territory rocking a 36% expected goal percentage. He’s currently their number 3 in terms of toi/game.
If I were a Stars fan, their blueline would give me pause, certainly a feeling of disquiet.
Of the top of my head. I wasn’t sure if Alex Petrovic was still an NHL defenseman two or three years ago. He’s their number six.
Miro is the hero, but he’s just back from injury.
Daily Faceoff has Petrovic as their 3RW?
Yeah I had previously noticed that too. I haven’t watch them play. I had assumed that was an error. Daily Faceoff has listed Oilers defensemen on our fourth line at times.
It is an error.
Petrovic is the #7D as noted below.
He played 9:17 last night in that role.
Ceci played 31 games for Dallas after being acquired with Michael Granlund in a trade for picks on February 1st.
His stat line in those games 0G 9A +15. GF 57.40%
In the playoffs 13GP 0G 3A -1
Resorting to pumping the tires of Ceci and Petrovic.. Good grief lol
Kiingberg vs Ceci playing against their old team. Which D do you pick? Do you think either one may be a difference maker as players always seem to respond against former teams.
They are very different players and who they play with makes a big difference as does usage.
Notably, Ceci played 18:53 last night while Klingberg played 21:03 in his last game.
With Heiskanen seemingly getting up to full speed last night and playing 23:40, I expect that TOI for the Lindell – Ceci pairing will continue to fade.
You have to remember that Heiskanen plays both sides equally well so it’s likely his TOI will increase further and approach his regular season ice time before injury to more than 25 minutes.
That could make a difference.
Bouchard is playing over 26mins a night and most likely will mirror last seasons conference finals, being the best defender in the series.
As I said earlier, while the Stars are clearly an elite team and it will be a very hard series, from watching them in the playoffs, they don’t scare me as much as I thought they would.They “seem to have depth” but the depth isn’t giving them much at all – they’ve been basically a one line team. The Oilers are currently the deeper team up front.The Oilers have been a much deeper team up front through the playoffs – and they also have the “greater stars”. No offence to Rantanen and Hintz but I’ll take McDavid and Draisaitl.Miro H. and T. Harley are a very good 1/2 D-punch but their defensive depth is weak (just like last year).They are not a physical team and I think the Oilers can take a bite out of them physically like the seemed to the Knights.Jake O. is good and can be great and is playing well but that is the same as last season and the Oilers got to him (and Skinner outplayed him). I feel the Oilers will get to any goalie through the course of a series.Should be alot of fun
Their vaunted depth has the likes of Alexander “AHL” Petrovic on their third line as RW.
Bring ’em on.
Alex Petrovic 2025 playoffs…13GP
FF 53.43%
SF 56.67%
xGF 55.44%
SCF 53.00%
Seems like the old bugger is doing things pretty well and is NOT playing RW.
Double post
The only thing that worries me about Dallas is how Benn and Marchment will implement their antics. Everything else we’re used to and can beat. They’re a good team, but so is Edmonton. It’ll be fun to watch.
Enter Evander and Trent. We have our own scumbags and bullies now. Sometimes that acts as a nuclear deterrent.
I see the likes of Perry, Frederic, Kane, Nurse, and even Shaq-Hyman being up to their shenanigans.
If/when DAL resorts to goonery that means we’ve gotten inside their heads and they don’t think they can compete on skill. That’s when our functional muscle will have to let them know they’re outmatched in that regard as well.
Zach “The Hitman ” Hyman….
If you target Benn he’ll completely come undone which I don’t think is necessarily a good thing as he’ll attempt to inflict as much pain on the recipient as possible. If you leave him alone he’s basically invisable.
On the other hand, the only Oiler he can catch is Perry and that wouldn’t end well.
You can goad Benn but you need to be prepared for a cross check to the face like Frederic recieved. It’s crazy how Roy a journeyman winger escaped with only a fine. This has set the precedent and Benn is one nasty prick when the light bulb goes off.
One adjustment the Stars have made in the playoffs is running with 7D and the addition is Alex Petrovic.
Petrovic effectively replaced Matt Dumba who has not played at all in the playoffs.
The 6’5″ 211 Petrovic was added to the lineup to provide physical play and provide support to 6’7″ 231 3LD Lian Bischel who is also developing as a very physical presence.
Bischel and Petrovic played extensively together in the AHL.
“I always liked him,” said DeBoer, who first got to know Petrovic when he was a young player in the Panthers system, “He’s not a career minor leaguer. This guy’s got a lot of NHL games under his belt. I’ve always liked his makeup and his game. He made a believer out of me last year in the playoffs, so when we got to that point of the year this year, where we were talking about depth up here, we brought him in, and he’s an easy guy for a coach to play.”
https://www.nhl.com/stars/news/perfect-timing-alexander-petrovic-becoming-important-piece-of-dallas-stars-blue-line-in-playoffs-051225
Vegas deploys a set of trees as their defenders and Frederic sent Hague to the dressing room needing medical attention. Rinse and repeat for the Oilers.
Hopefully Oilers’ scouts were watching Oettinger closely and have some good intel for the shooters.
Oetter didn’t sound too pleased they were playing the Oil. Didn’t expect us there.
Show the boys video of Appleton blowing a wide open net and say ‘you’re gonna wanna score there’.
Lift the puck, take his eyes, same as last time.
Looking forward to this series! It’s been a nice little break. I live in Tunisia, and during the regular season I sleep through the games and watch with no commercials in the morning. During the playoffs I often wake up in terror that the oilers have lost and watch live between 2-5am. Really throws off the rest of the day!
I wanted to share an amazing YouTube channel. I love analytics but also love learning more about tactical decisions. Former video coach breaks Steve Peters breaks down each playoff game. He mostly covers the goals. But for those of you that like Curlock’s tactical analyses, I think you will enjoy these. There are so many small, incredible plays these athletes make to create goals. Sometimes luck is a big factor as well.
For example, check out his breakdown of Kapanen’s series winner. He notices something I could have never seen. McNabb’s stick gets stuck in Hill’s pads, which is why he couldn’t clear the puck! Reminds you how tight the margins really are
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dzxF2nbZ2kE
Oilers fans in Tatooine! I shouldn’t be surprised, but I am a little bit.
Great YouTube channel, thanks for sharing.
I had examined that yesterday frame by frame and in addition pressure from that stick also prevents Hill from doing anything with his leg to try and hold the puck. Another thing – as Draisaitl flys by behind the net he tries to put the puck in and it’s not clear if his stick touched the puck or not before Kapanen pushes the puck in.
Well I hope the Stars and Oil like Katy Perry, she has a concert at 7 p.m. Wednesday May 21st at American Airlines Center.
Maybe it’s a BIG place, room for a concert as well hockey
They moved Katy Perry
To space?
More than a bit annoyed that the Stars get a full 3-day break. It should be two max. The Leafs or Panthers will get one day.
That’s life in the American networks
…and the Stars did do it in 6, while the East will go to 7
I’m also annoyed, but maybe the arena isn’t available for a Tuesday game due to stage set up for the concert. At least the Oilers will be very well rested for the final 2 rounds.
Actually the opposite. Tuesday was available and Wed had a Katy Perry concert which is being moved.
Oilers are pretty banged up. The Stars looked tired but not hurt last night. I think the incremental day off benefits the Oilers more at this point.
I don’t really agree.
The Oilers will have had a full week off. I’m not sure one extra day would have made a difference whereas the Stars getting only 2 day, or maybe even 1 day (ala the Leafs/Panthers) would be a tough turnaround for sure.
The CIA may need the Zapruder film to dissect the magic puck theory after this is all over showing McDavid’s series winning goal… back and to the left, back and to the left… back and to the left.
Other than the top 3 Dallas defense is very very weak. Give Harley Heiskanen and Lundell the Pietrangelo treatment and you can move on
Huh? Dallas has a top tier defense, don’t underestimate them
Top 3 yes. The rest are weakest out of the teams left
Reads like a HH post
No, I’m not that bozo, but I honestly thought they have a very good D. Sorry you don’t agree
Let’s just say the top three on both teams are a wash and cancel out on average.
There’s no way a bottom three of Ceci/Bichsel/Lyubushkin can compete with the likes of Klingberg/Kulak/Stecher.
When Ekholm comes back, that gets even deeper, resembling something like Walman/Klingberg/Kulak.
Advantage: Oilers.
Alex Petrovic, Ilya Lyubushkin, Lian Bichsel, and Cody Ceci are all third pairing guys in the regular season. In the semis, they’re all weak spots. This is not the picture of depth.
Heiskanen and Harley are elite but not elite defensively. Lindell is their true real in-zone defender. This D-core is far from perfect.
On the Oilers, Bouchard is elite, Walman, Kulak, and Nurse are second pairing level and Stetcher and Klingberg are bottom pairing guys. Bouchard, Kulak, and Stetcher are great in their own zone. Walman has been helping Klingberg play to his strengths so his skating hasn’t been exposed too badly.
I would give Dallas a slight edge because of Harley but if Ekholm comes back 80% or greater, I think the Oil have the edge. And clearly they’ve got the edge up front.
Lindell, Lundell plays for the Panthers.
Any time Cody Ceci is on the ice put 97 on.
Get off of my lawn! -).
Haha. That’s great right there