So far in this year’s playoffs, the Oilers have deployed Jake Walman and John Klingberg as the second pairing. I wrote about the team’s ability to retrieve/outlet at The Athletic yesterday (it is here) and suspect that pairing will be key.
Natural Stat Trick tells us Walman-Klingberg have played 94:13 together at five-on-five (all of the numbers below are five-on-five) in nine playoff games. That’s just a little more than 10 minutes per game. The duo is helping Edmonton outscore (4-2), own an expected goal share of 67 percent and are surrendering just 19.7 shots-60. Music! That’s Stan Bowman’s handiwork and it’s quite the fix for the Oilers.
Evan Bouchard is running a 55 percent goal share (62 percent expected) in 202 minutes five-on-five. His success (in a small sample) somewhat relies on his partner. Bouchard with Darnell Nurse is at 39 percent goal share (57 expected) in 80 minutes. On the other hand, the 64 minutes that feature Bouchard with Brett Kulak have delivered 67 percent (68 expected) of the goals.
Small sample. However, the Oilers might be wise to run Kulak-Bouchard and Walman-Klingberg as the top two pairs.
Where does that leave Darnell Nurse? Well, Troy Stecher was a big help in his game with the big man. One hopes that continues. However, the Mattias Ekholm return (possibly midway through the Dallas series) creates some options. I suspect Ekholm will enter the series on the third pairing, but what if that third pair is Nurse-Ekholm?
We know that Kris Knoblauch isn’t big on line matching, but if he had three pairings he could count on, well, that would represent something new to the Oilers experience. We’ll see. It’s going to be a fun series.
We’re back on the radio (1440 AM) today on noon. The Lowdown will welcome Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and host of Puck Social at 12:40. We’ll chat Oilers-Stars plus the disappointments in Winnipeg and Toronto.
I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
The Panthers and the Canes have both had large analytics crews for at least a decade. But if what we saw tonight is indicative of that process Mehta > Tulsky . The two teams couldn’t be more different. I did not see it as close, at all. The Canes do a lot of things fast. But most of what they do, the Panthers do better.
How much of that is Zito, who’s relatively recent onto the scene in FLA?
Summarizing!
Yet another OT game, won 4-3 by Muskegon to claim the Clark Cup. Berry was not a resoupient but he won’t mind a whit.
Only the Knight twain remains among NAmateurs.
Prospecting takes a break until Saturn’s Day.
I hope Carolina remembers how to play against Florida. All that time off seems to have relaxed them. In game 2 they need to HULK SMASH.
Canes are more like Quicksilver.
Rooting for either team in that series feels gross.
It’s like CAL and DAL playing eachother with the winner facing EDM.
I just want it to go the distance, and for them to take liberties against eachother across the board. Ideally having consequences for next season.
Because, you know. Eff those guys.
Canes gotta learn they can just elbow people in the back of the head and get away with it, like the Panthers.
Carolina are the Jets of the East when are the Canes going to figure out you need sandpaper in at least 1 of your 4 series needed to win the Cup.
Just saw Ekholm getting off the plane in Dallas – won’t play but perhaps wants to keep skating with the team and doing the game-day routine and what not. Or the wife maybe wants the house to herself and the kids for a few days.
Florida getting outplayed for long stretches and capitalizing on some fortuitous plays. Also Carolina no finish whatsoever this period.
Why is the NHL stupid? This should be an extended Carolina 5 on 3. Instead, Florida powerplay.
Moronic.
I’m really hoping for a rematch with Florida the trolling of the Leafs fans and media by Marchand and Tkachuk is kinda funny. The trolling by Maurice is on a different level it’s nauseating someone needs to drop this narcissistic jerk down a peg or two.
Oilers are 3 for 3 in SC finals rematches. Here’s hoping!
This team reminds me of 1985 where we went 15W-3L as the first round was best of 5. I think you see us getting better and better as the playoffs continue.
Does the Taylor Hall “resurrection” begin tonight?
Shades of Doug Weight.
Source IG: goldenerahockey
Playoff stats on special teams so far
Dallas – Edmonton
PK GA/60: 4.3 – 11.5
PK xGA/60: 8.91 – 8.87
PK SA/60: 51.2 – 53.6
PP GF/60: 11.5 – 7.9
PP xGF/60: 10.1 – 11.6
PP SF/60: 52.4 – 63.7
Lot to look at here. Ultimately, one could explain this away as Edmonton has faced strong opposition goaltending on the PP and has not gotten the saves from their goalies on the PK. I don’t think it is as simple, however
Debunks the narrative that “Oilers aren’t shooting enough on the PP” – they are shooting more than the red hot Stars PP
The difference between PK GA/60 and PK xGA/60 is stark for both teams. I still attest that Pickard hasn’t been stellar at seeing through traffic, while both goalies understandably struggle with cross-ice set ups. I would say that not all xGA are equal, and some of those cross-ice feeds allowed by our PK have been awful (tightened up last few games). Big area for Skinner to improve/maintain improvement on. Seems like Otter has been dynamite on PK (without watching the games), hopefully that can change, as it seems like the hockey gords owe the Oil a few (Hill and Kuemper both lucky and good on the PK)
Edmonton is shooting a lot, yet they’ve been heavily scouted with the majority of shots taken being what the opposition wanted to be taken, if shots were to be given up.
Draisaitl needs to get much closer to the post getting into the scramble, only branching out to his spots once McDavid has broken open the pk structure.
The stationary standing in your spot work by the PP while McDavid’s skating around with the puck is dead. PP needs off puck players moving and pressing much more to get their spots opened back up. Oilers powerplay isn’t at its best taking lots of shots, it’s at its best when they open up their opponents PK and take the right shot.
Here’s hoping the extra time off has been a benefit to Draisaitl, and the coaches have put together some sauce that has PP1 playing determined and with a bit of fun again.
I think they should try the bumper play more down low shades of Neal-Chiasson I think they need some scrambly play to open up Oettinger.
Nuge wrister in tight and Hyman at the door step needs to be tried as well
Instead of trying to make the perfect shot up high Nuge-McDavid-Bouchard need to hit the net and let Hyman-Perry-Leon clean up the garbage.
Samanski with an assist on Germany’s lone goal in a SO loss today. Now has 2-3-5 in 7 GP.
Leppänen incurred no soup and has 0-2-2 in 7 GP.
If I’m not mistaken, Leppanen has not been on for a goal against in the tourney though…
Moneypuck today shows that 3 of the top 9 lines in the playoffs in xGF at even strength were Oilers:
Kane-RNH-Hyman 75%
Draisaitl-McDavid-Perry 68%
Frederic-Henrique-Brown 58%
It seems the lines are likely set for game 1, but nice to know there are other options.
I was pessimistic at the end of the regular season, with all the injuries, Kane and Frederic kind of doubtful, Ekholm out (most of all) and nothing rhyming. What a turnaround, I’ve been following since the 80’s glory years and have never seen anything like this sudden consolidation achieved on the fly against the best LA team in years, and built upon since. These Moneypuck stats give real confidence.
Except those aren’t the lines that finished the series and the haven’t skated with those lines at any point since the series ended.
I’m sure deployment will change through the series but I wouldn’t expect to start with those tomorrow night.
I’m aware. That’s why I said it’s nice to have these options to fall back on.
I would like to see Kane’s line start let’s set the tone early maybe we get a ugly one as Dallas will be expecting Connor line to start.
The series will likely be decided by special teams. I see Edmonton being a superior 5v5 team, and Dallas being the superior special teams.
If Edmonton can saw off special teams, I think they win the series in 5 or 6. If Dallas are dominant on the PP and the PK, I think DAL wins in 6.
The deeper the series goes the less penalties will be called which bodes well for the good guys.
I agree 100%, though no one knows what the refs will be calling. If it’s a grind it out, let them play kind of game, then the Oilers 5v5 numbers so far are more dominant like you said.
Stu won this match-up last year. I like his chances to win it again this year. #dawg #NID
Absolute dawg. #NID
Wow the athletic has the stars as 2/3 odds Stanley cup champs. Hope the oilers dressing room sees this.
Just like last year. The difference this year is Mikko. However, 29 shut down Eichel he can do the same thing with MR.
Oilers in 6
I’ll be pissed if Carolina screws us out of a cup twice in my lifetime
I’ll push back on this a little bit because I think Rantanen is a great player. Mikko got 7 of his 9 goals in two periods – the last period of the last game against Colorado and the first period of the first game against Winnipeg. I watched a lot of the Winnipeg series and Mikko simply doesn’t push play like Eichel. He’s a great player with much better linemates.
Many Vegas odds makers have the Oilers at slight favorites for the Cup right now with Florida slightly ahead on a few others. If Florida and Edmonton meet, depending on how each plays and injuries in this round, Edmonton would get a slight bump as Vegas sees Florida as having a better chance to get there against Carolina.
Unlike “experts” (which almost no reporter ever is) and sites like Moneypuck, Vegas oddsmakers are playing with real money and real consequences. And the odds take into account both their assessments of the actual game outcome risk and the amounts wagered.
Moneypuck had the Oilers as the 14th mostly likely team to get to the conference final. I know exactly how they calculate their odds and don’t put much stock in theirs or any other public data models.
— yeah I’ve never understood the propensity for “news sources” (or fans) to quote odds as proof that one team is favoured over another or that it’s some prediction of actual results.
— That’s not what “odds” represent in a sporting event.
From my understanding of gambling odds, it has nothing to do with who they think is going to win. It’s not a subjective evaluation of who they think is better.
They are basing the odds off of current betting trends and trying to balance it so they have equal exposure on both sides and thereby eliminating the risk. That way they make money no matter who wins.
https://x.com/travisyost/status/1924853348358094965?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
Hammer home Heiskanen and Harley is the key to the series
Precisely. Oilers need to give DAL the Kings treatment.
Not only did the Oil jettison Ceci, they managed to now get a matchup AGAINST him. Now we get to see the opposite view. He couldn’t possibly tread water against either McD or Leon lines.
The D-group doing what its doing without Mattias Ekholm is massive.
Kudos to Bowman for adding Walman and Klingberg in-season. A full legit 2nd pairing added during the stretch drive. Took a bit for Klingberg to get there but damn if he’s not playing an important role.
Kudos to Ken Holland for trading for Troy Stecher for, if I remember correctly a 4th round (but getting a late round pick back) and then Jeff Jackson for re-signing him to a value deal of 2 X $787,500
Kudos to Evan Bouchard for, well, being Evan Bouchard and player that, in the playoffs is a legit top 3-5 d-man in the NHL and is proving that, nope, he doesn’t need to play with Mattias Ekholm to drive play and materially out-score the opposition.
I still see Kling as an adventure the moment he’s in a footrace or 1on1 against a great skater. At times he reminds me of a Ryan Whitney with an ankle ready to snap. I haven’t seen whether or not he’s getting sheltered but I suspect it.
When not in a chasing scenario, I’ve seen him really well.
He’s doing exactly what Bowman envisioned getting the puck up the ice quickly and on the tape.
Interesting article from Woodley breaking down the WCF goaltending:
Skinner vs. Oettinger goalie matchup in Western Final | NHL.com
Last season Skinner went 4-2-0, 1.91 GAA, .922 sv% in the Conference Finals vs Dallas. Oettinger was 2-4-0, 2.56 GAA and .907 sv%.
Coming into the series, Oettinger’s numbers looked much better:
SS: 7-3-0, 2.87 GAA, .881 sv%
JO: 8-5-0, 2.09 GAA, .918 sv%
I’ll be looking for Skinner to step up his play once again.
I wonder what Stus numbers look like if we take away those first two games against LA when the team was still finding the gears
In 2024? Slightly better, but not by much. Stu struggled in round 2 v Vancouver.
Here are his boxcars round by round in 2024:
v LAK: 4-1-0, 2.59 GAA, .910 sv%
v VAN: 3-2-0, 3.17 GAA, .833 sv%
v DAL: 4-2-0, 1.91 GAA, .922 sv%
v FLA: 3-4-0, 2.33 GAA, .909 sv%
2025 stats since first two in LA
Games Played: 3
Record: 2 Wins, 1 Loss
Goals Against Average (GAA): 1.33
Save Percentage: .958
Shutouts: 2
Game 3 vs. Vegas (May 10): 4 goals against, 20 saves on 24 shots (.833 SV%), 4.00 GAA
Game 4 vs. Vegas (May 12): 0 goals against, 23 saves on 23 shots (1.000 SV%), 0.00 GAA
Game 5 vs. Vegas (May 14): 0 goals against, 24 saves on 24 shots (1.000 SV%), 0.00 GAA
I wrote this in the old thread:
My recollection of last year was that Dallas deployed a “cherry picker” strategy in their zone. They had one guy fly the zone which gave the Oilers troubles until KK adjusted.
In my limited viewing of the first two rounds, they were still doing a lot of that. F3 becomes critical, taking away lanes so it slows the attack. Winnipeg did that really well in games 5 & 6 of the last series.
They liked the flip play. Took the Oil a few games to adjust. With better skaters (pivots) and puck movers back there it ‘should’ be easier.
As an aside, every time a reporter/blogger brings up how Florida’s strategy involves the ‘slow/soft dump’ strategy I chuckle.
Soft Dump in the Corner is a magnificient Beer League or Pool hockey team name.
It’s going to be verrry interesting to see how they deploy the defense pairs. They have the conference finals to sort it all out. There’re so many options. the amazing part is things couldn’t be coming together at a more perfect time.
What is thinking of the Sunday early start in Edmonton for game three? I vaguely recall one against the Islanders when we lost in the final I think it was game 1 when Billy stood on his head and he slashed Gretzky. For some reason I remember this as a afternoon game. I wish Bruce was still alive he was a enclyopidea when it came to the Oilers history and many other topics.
It’s all ABC, they want the afternoon matinee for their Sunday Sports
— Pretty neat playoffs hockey for every night until the semis are over.
— I recall this not always being the case (3 days off after each home portion etc).
I think ABC/ESPN is trying to squeeze the Sunday game on TV between the Indy 500 and the Charlotte 600, rather than taking on either head on.
Your memory is mostly correct: game one in Edmonton (I had great seats behind the Islanders goal for two periods) and Smith was unbelievable. However, that was Tuesday, May 10, 1983, and game two was Thursday, May 12. Game three was a Saturday, maybe that’s the one you’re thinking of?
Further, it would be helpful to clarify which time Smith slashed Gretzky; Smith got a slashing call at 11:10 in the first of game one, got called again for slashing at 17:56 of the third in game two (I think this prompted the Journal to run the Public Enemy headline in the front page with the photo of him brandishing his goalie stick like a Tommy Gun in front of Gretzky), so I think we can all agree Smith was a total dink and a hell of a goalie.
He was the ultimate troll job before the cool kids had a name for it. The hatred for Billy was real young people don’t understand that back then you didn’t prance and strut around town in a Flames or Islanders jersey without some repercussions.
Agreed Lowetide. You don’t want to mess with those two pairs for now. Once Ekholm gets back up to speed after a few games then you likely move him back with Bouchard and put Nurse and Kulak together on the third pair. Or maybe you just let it ride if it’s working well.
I spent the last 5 days in Lake Opeongo in Algonquin Park, what’d I miss?
The Leafs core laying a egg when it mattered most.
Lol I was camping with a buddy who’s a diehard Leafs fan, we found out when we got back into cell service
Captain Auston Matthews saying his team had too many passengers, while being a passenger himself.
And now saying he was injured in training camp and played through it the whole year apparently.
Not sure why the Leafs opted to have Matthews play a whole year injured if it is that bad.
I think once Marner leaves he’ll be the most dispised player since Vince Carter. Him not resigning a more than fair contract is his prerogative as well as nixing the trade for Rantanen. Why for the life of me would he nix that deal If he doesn’t want to stay? He’ll end up in Anaheim getting his 14 million with 80-90 point seasons but the fact is he left the Maple Leafs high and dry,
I’d guess the answer of why he didn’t accept the trade is between 1. He and his wife were about to have a baby 2. He may not have scored as many points in Carolina (see Rantanen) which would have cost him on his next contract. 3. He thought this year in the playoffs would be different and he could be the hometown hero. I reckon he ends up in Anaheim or San Jose.
Mitch can’t play the Babcock card on this one he’s not a child. He had all the cards and squeezed every cent out of organization. The toxicity he’s going to recieve is of his own doing as he merrily skips out of town.
100% agree on that. Played hardball on extension and squeezed every penny. Declined a trade to get Rantanen, and will leave them with nothing. He will be the most hated player by that fan base, save one fan HH who reckons he did the leafs a service of gifting them cap space. I hope none of our top oilers are as generous as him.
I’m thinking Utah. Tons of draft capital to flesh out a deal…
Marner is a free agent. No deal needed.
Weird fun fact: poklington had his dad’s named inscribed on cup it has been marked with an “X”.
Only that and brad ulrich’s name have had this occur.
Puck greasy is as greasy does perfect legacy.
Ekholm’s contribution to the attack is what I’m most excited about in terms of a return. Its absence has been noticeable.
That slapper and at least 3 perfect setup passes a game makes a big difference at this time of year especially.
Its the PK for me.
Thus far:
Goalie and special teams -> advantage stars
5×5 -> huge advantage oilers.
Thinking about this i believe it says a lot of how bad the drop off is on dallas’s defence more thsn anything. Can’t defend overly well and can’t for the life of them make outlet passes.
Checks ceci’s minutes…solidly 4-5 dman yeah that checks out.
Putting betman “good for the growth of the game” tinfoil hat on:
Predict magically penalties will be up. Hope PP swings bavk into form and this could be over quite soon.
Just as momentum does not exist game to game in the playoffs.
Statistics are meaningless series to series in the playoffs.
One is playing and matching up against an entirely different team.
Exactly that’s why you need a team to play all styles this series one of our 4 lines is going to overmatch there’s and will have a heyday on the score sheet. There’s no mystery to Dallas they are what we thought they were.
Sooo…you’re saying the 5’x5 play of the oilers and lack thereof by stars through 2 series is meaningless?
I’m just trying to find grumpy godot’s “line in sand” on this one.
I think Knob does like to get certain matchups but is remiss to chase matchups and play games to chase (take guys off after 5 seconds, etc.).
He clearly hard matched the Drai line against Eichel in game 4 and went to it when he could in game 5 – Drai talked straight up about accepting that challenge.
I think it’s hugely helpful that there is balance among the lines and the pairs. Really, there isn’t a d-pair that the coaching staff would be scared to get caught out on an icing. Maybe the fourth line but no issues with any of the top 3 lines taking a d-zone faceoff against top line.
Depth is fun.
Now with Ekholm’s imminent return, they have impressive depth on the blueline, as well as the forward ranks, heading into the conference final and possible SCF. Perfect timing.
I’m not quite sure its imminent.
We know he won’t play either of the first two games.
Stauff says he thinks maybe for game 5 or 6.
Coach said again today that there is no timeline but they are hopeful some time in this series.
Roll 4 lines and 3 defensive pairings no long shifts wear the Dallas big 3 D down as the series goes on this will be beneficial. This is by far the best group up front since the eighties once Ekholm returns in form this will be our best D since 2006. If we continue to get slightly above average goaltending this team is going to roll through the final 8 wins needed.
I look for the wingers to target Miro H. and Harley just like Pieterangelo.
If its Nurse-Ekholm on the 3rd pair for 12-14 minutes so be it. They can both get minutes on the PK. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if they went 11-7 for at least a game to ensure we aren’t playing 5 D if Ekholm (or anyone for that matter) gets hurt.
No way we go back to that gimmicky Woody 11-7 Hokey Pokey 11-7 deployment.
There’s a time and a place. It would be foolish not to keep the 11/7 option available for deployment. It’s now common place throughout the league.
I agree not to do it but its much more common that you suggest.
Knob has done it hear and there. DoBoer has being doing it for the last 3 games or so.
If he’s not ready to play don’t play Ekholm. But we need to keep rolling 4 lines
They’d probably be able to roll 4 defense pairs also if it was allowed.
We can label the pairs whatever we want but I find it tough to think Nurse won’t be near the top of the 5 on 5 minutes in any game (unless he’s in the box or something. He’s very trusted by the coaching.
They could go 11/7 and, while I don’t think its out of the realm of possibility, I don’t think we’ll see it (unless something changes) and I hope not.
We know that generally d-men hate that set-up and it really does take them out of rhythm. Do we think its a coincidence that the Oilers had two high end defensive games in a row, and gave up zero goals, right when they changed from playing 5D and spotting in Emberson to 3 real pairs that played real minutes? I don’t.
If there is any real chance that Ekholm isn’t able to finish a 15 minute of icetime type of game, don’t put him in – in my opinion.
— The drive to office FAN hate listen was great
— It kind of reminded me of the Steve Austin vintage of the Oilers : they just weren’t good enough but most fans had false unreasonable expectations based on media who had a different agenda which is to sell hope always
— Losing to the Champs in 2nd round is progress. Build on it. They will have 20mm + as they move to “core-2”.
— Leafs fans kidding themselves (not knowledgeable) thinking that they were going to the Cup after never getting out of first round with their core. Same as Oilers back in the day.
— These Oilers though : they have a legit chance. Nothings guaranteed injuries happen but they are seemingly in better shape this year after 2 rounds than last year.
— Plus dare to dream home ice advantage if they make finals. Massive.
LFGOILERS!!!
Is this you making a slight pivot to try to keep the gist of your post yesterday alive?
Or are you ignoring the evidence myself and others posted in response to your driveby of Pretendergast’s rebuttal to your initial comment?
To wit:
And:
…
I liked Arvidsson when he was playing, but at the moment their is no place to put him. Great depth
He’ll get another chance to play (injuries are a thing) and we’ll wonder why he was sitting. Love the depth Bowman has built.
Yeah that is a contract I would definitely like to dump in the offseason
For sure but I suspect he’ll be in the lineup shortly.
I think he’ll get back in over Kapanen fairly quickly – Kap was great in game 1 with the physicality, however, outside of scoring the goal, I thought he made a couple questionable plays with the puck and, well, that is his achilles heel and the main reason he leaked so many goals against.
Great depth right now though, for sure.
If Ekholm is healthy, him and Bouchard still rock.
Kulak with Nurse
plus Walman and Klingberg
give us our best D depth we have had since forever. No need to shelter anyone. Nice work by Bowman.
Dallas has Ceci on their 2nd pairing…
The Oilers and Stars should play tonight.
Would be two days rest for each of the Stars and Panthers (as opposed to 3 days and 1 day), Katy Perry could have kept her We’d concert and game 3 would have been on Sat night.
No one here makes the schedule so I’m not sure why you keep complaining about this everyday.
Too funny
Plus I like the playing every other day until the series is over. (Although not a fan of the matinee game)
No one here makes the lineup nightly or assembles the team but commenters on here comment and complain about both daily.
Also haven’t mentioned in on here since the night and day after the schedule came out so not daily but whatever dude.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings dude. Maybe I was confused and read your schedule complaints on Oilersnation or the Athletic. I know you like to cut and paste your thoughts onto each message board so it’s hard to keep up. I look forward to your daily Berezkin post later today!
OP, to his credit, keeps us informed, that’s why the majority of us are here. Then there’s the minority that just can’t figure it out, like you.
Sounds personal – oh well, can’t make everyone happy.
Prospectelevision!
Bauer Berry’s season–and USHL career–reaches its end tonight in a deciding Game 5 ‘twixt his Jacks of Lumber and the Waterloo Black Hawks. Home ice has meant nothing this series as each team has split on the road, and tonight’s match is in Waterloo.
Berry has two assists in 13 GP this postseason. Will he finish as a champ before he is off to the University of St. Thomas this fall? We wait.
Puck drops @ 5:30 p.m. Streamstown time.
I was looking up the Troy Stecher trade earlier today and Berry is the player we drafted with the 7th rounder we got back (sent a fourth to Arizona).
Nurse was exceptional in the last two games and he was not sheltered.
Played the most 5 on 5 minutes in the dominant game 4.
3-0 goals in the games, over 70%?expected goals each game.
Assisted on the series winner.
Is there another team that has so much difficulty sheltering their highest paid dman? 🙂
The Jones redemption story in Florida may help Nurse see a future elsewhere…
Sheltering? Nurse led all defensemen for 5v5 TOI/GP in the 2nd round, and was 6-4 goals. He’s not being sheltered.
I was being somewhat sarcastic as per the emoji but the article literally speaks to Nurse on the 3rd pairing which has been generally supported by this community for months.
His stats have been alarming for a significant portion of the past 3 years.