So far in this year’s playoffs, the Oilers have deployed Jake Walman and John Klingberg as the second pairing. I wrote about the team’s ability to retrieve/outlet at The Athletic yesterday (it is here) and suspect that pairing will be key.
Natural Stat Trick tells us Walman-Klingberg have played 94:13 together at five-on-five (all of the numbers below are five-on-five) in nine playoff games. That’s just a little more than 10 minutes per game. The duo is helping Edmonton outscore (4-2), own an expected goal share of 67 percent and are surrendering just 19.7 shots-60. Music! That’s Stan Bowman’s handiwork and it’s quite the fix for the Oilers.
Evan Bouchard is running a 55 percent goal share (62 percent expected) in 202 minutes five-on-five. His success (in a small sample) somewhat relies on his partner. Bouchard with Darnell Nurse is at 39 percent goal share (57 expected) in 80 minutes. On the other hand, the 64 minutes that feature Bouchard with Brett Kulak have delivered 67 percent (68 expected) of the goals.
Small sample. However, the Oilers might be wise to run Kulak-Bouchard and Walman-Klingberg as the top two pairs.
Where does that leave Darnell Nurse? Well, Troy Stecher was a big help in his game with the big man. One hopes that continues. However, the Mattias Ekholm return (possibly midway through the Dallas series) creates some options. I suspect Ekholm will enter the series on the third pairing, but what if that third pair is Nurse-Ekholm?
We know that Kris Knoblauch isn’t big on line matching, but if he had three pairings he could count on, well, that would represent something new to the Oilers experience. We’ll see. It’s going to be a fun series.
We’re back on the radio (1440 AM) today on noon. The Lowdown will welcome Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and host of Puck Social at 12:40. We’ll chat Oilers-Stars plus the disappointments in Winnipeg and Toronto.
I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Interesting article from Woodley breaking down the WCF goaltending:
Skinner vs. Oettinger goalie matchup in Western Final | NHL.com
Last season Skinner went 4-2-0, 1.91 GAA, .922 sv% in the Conference Finals vs Dallas. Oettinger was 2-4-0, 2.56 GAA and .907 sv%.
Coming into the series, Oettinger’s numbers looked much better:
SS: 7-3-0, 2.87 GAA, .881 sv%
JO: 8-5-0, 2.09 GAA, .918 sv%
I’ll be looking for Skinner to step up his play once again.
I wonder what Stus numbers look like if we take away those first two games against LA when the team was still finding the gears
I wrote this in the old thread:
My recollection of last year was that Dallas deployed a “cherry picker” strategy in their zone. They had one guy fly the zone which gave the Oilers troubles until KK adjusted.
In my limited viewing of the first two rounds, they were still doing a lot of that. F3 becomes critical, taking away lanes so it slows the attack. Winnipeg did that really well in games 5 & 6 of the last series.
They liked the flip play. Took the Oil a few games to adjust. With better skaters (pivots) and puck movers back there it ‘should’ be easier.
As an aside, every time a reporter/blogger brings up how Florida’s strategy involves the ‘slow/soft dump’ strategy I chuckle.
It’s going to be verrry interesting to see how they deploy the defense pairs. They have the conference finals to sort it all out. There’re so many options. the amazing part is things couldn’t be coming together at a more perfect time.
What is thinking of the Sunday early start in Edmonton for game three? I vaguely recall one against the Islanders when we lost in the final I think it was game 1 when Billy stood on his head and he slashed Gretzky. For some reason I remember this as a afternoon game. I wish Bruce was still alive he was a enclyopidea when it came to the Oilers history and many other topics.
It’s all ABC, they want the afternoon matinee for their Sunday Sports
— Pretty neat playoffs hockey for every night until the semis are over.
— I recall this not always being the case (3 days off after each home portion etc).
Agreed Lowetide. You don’t want to mess with those two pairs for now. Once Ekholm gets back up to speed after a few games then you likely move him back with Bouchard and put Nurse and Kulak together on the third pair. Or maybe you just let it ride if it’s working well.
I spent the last 5 days in Lake Opeongo in Algonquin Park, what’d I miss?
The Leafs core laying a egg when it mattered most.
Lol I was camping with a buddy who’s a diehard Leafs fan, we found out when we got back into cell service
Captain Auston Matthews saying his team had too many passengers, while being a passenger himself.
And now saying he was injured in training camp and played through it the whole year apparently.
Not sure why the Leafs opted to have Matthews play a whole year injured if it is that bad.
Weird fun fact: poklington had his dad’s named inscribed on cup it has been marked with an “X”.
Only that and brad ulrich’s name have had this occur.
Puck greasy is as greasy does perfect legacy.
Ekholm’s contribution to the attack is what I’m most excited about in terms of a return. Its absence has been noticeable.
That slapper and at least 3 perfect setup passes a game makes a big difference at this time of year especially.
Thus far:
Goalie and special teams -> advantage stars
5×5 -> huge advantage oilers.
Thinking about this i believe it says a lot of how bad the drop off is on dallas’s defence more thsn anything. Can’t defend overly well and can’t for the life of them make outlet passes.
Checks ceci’s minutes…solidly 4-5 dman yeah that checks out.
Putting betman “good for the growth of the game” tinfoil hat on:
Predict magically penalties will be up. Hope PP swings bavk into form and this could be over quite soon.
I think Knob does like to get certain matchups but is remiss to chase matchups and play games to chase (take guys off after 5 seconds, etc.).
He clearly hard matched the Drai line against Eichel in game 4 and went to it when he could in game 5 – Drai talked straight up about accepting that challenge.
I think it’s hugely helpful that there is balance among the lines and the pairs. Really, there isn’t a d-pair that the coaching staff would be scared to get caught out on an icing. Maybe the fourth line but no issues with any of the top 3 lines taking a d-zone faceoff against top line.
Depth is fun.
Now with Ekholm’s imminent return, they have impressive depth on the blueline, as well as the forward ranks, heading into the conference final and possible SCF. Perfect timing.
Roll 4 lines and 3 defensive pairings no long shifts wear the Dallas big 3 D down as the series goes on this will be beneficial. This is by far the best group up front since the eighties once Ekholm returns in form this will be our best D since 2006. If we continue to get slightly above average goaltending this team is going to roll through the final 8 wins needed.
If its Nurse-Ekholm on the 3rd pair for 12-14 minutes so be it. They can both get minutes on the PK. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if they went 11-7 for at least a game to ensure we aren’t playing 5 D if Ekholm (or anyone for that matter) gets hurt.
No way we go back to that gimmicky Woody 11-7 Hokey Pokey 11-7 deployment.
There’s a time and a place. It would be foolish not to keep the 11/7 option available for deployment. It’s now common place throughout the league.
If he’s not ready to play don’t play Ekholm. But we need to keep rolling 4 lines
They’d probably be able to roll 4 defense pairs also if it was allowed.
— The drive to office FAN hate listen was great
— It kind of reminded me of the Steve Austin vintage of the Oilers : they just weren’t good enough but most fans had false unreasonable expectations based on media who had a different agenda which is to sell hope always
— Losing to the Champs in 2nd round is progress. Build on it. They will have 20mm + as they move to “core-2”.
— Leafs fans kidding themselves (not knowledgeable) thinking that they were going to the Cup after never getting out of first round with their core. Same as Oilers back in the day.
— These Oilers though : they have a legit chance. Nothings guaranteed injuries happen but they are seemingly in better shape this year after 2 rounds than last year.
— Plus dare to dream home ice advantage if they make finals. Massive.
LFGOILERS!!!
I liked Arvidsson when he was playing, but at the moment their is no place to put him. Great depth
He’ll get another chance to play (injuries are a thing) and we’ll wonder why he was sitting. Love the depth Bowman has built.
Yeah that is a contract I would definitely like to dump in the offseason
If Ekholm is healthy, him and Bouchard still rock.
Kulak with Nurse
plus Walman and Klingberg
give us our best D depth we have had since forever. No need to shelter anyone. Nice work by Bowman.
Dallas has Ceci on their 2nd pairing…
The Oilers and Stars should play tonight.
Would be two days rest for each of the Stars and Panthers (as opposed to 3 days and 1 day), Katy Perry could have kept her We’d concert and game 3 would have been on Sat night.
No one here makes the schedule so I’m not sure why you keep complaining about this everyday.
Too funny
Plus I like the playing every other day until the series is over. (Although not a fan of the matinee game)
No one here makes the lineup nightly or assembles the team but commenters on here comment and complain about both daily.
Also haven’t mentioned in on here since the night and day after the schedule came out so not daily but whatever dude.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings dude. Maybe I was confused and read your schedule complaints on Oilersnation or the Athletic. I know you like to cut and paste your thoughts onto each message board so it’s hard to keep up. I look forward to your daily Berezkin post later today!
OP, to his credit, keeps us informed, that’s why the majority of us are here. Then there’s the minority that just can’t figure it out, like you.
Prospectelevision!
Bauer Berry’s season–and USHL career–reaches its end tonight in a deciding Game 5 ‘twixt his Jacks of Lumber and the Waterloo Black Hawks. Home ice has meant nothing this series as each team has split on the road, and tonight’s match is in Waterloo.
Berry has two assists in 13 GP this postseason. Will he finish as a champ before he is off to the University of St. Thomas this fall? We wait.
Puck drops @ 5:30 p.m. Streamstown time.
Nurse was exceptional in the last two games and he was not sheltered.
Played the most 5 on 5 minutes in the dominant game 4.
3-0 goals in the games, over 70%?expected goals each game.
Assisted on the series winner.
Is there another team that has so much difficulty sheltering their highest paid dman? 🙂
The Jones redemption story in Florida may help Nurse see a future elsewhere…
Sheltering? Nurse led all defensemen for 5v5 TOI/GP in the 2nd round, and was 6-4 goals. He’s not being sheltered.
I was being somewhat sarcastic as per the emoji but the article literally speaks to Nurse on the 3rd pairing which has been generally supported by this community for months.
His stats have been alarming for a significant portion of the past 3 years.