These old eyes don’t see as well as they used to, but from what I’ve observed Edmonton Oilers fans should feel good about the current state of affairs. The upcoming series versus Dallas Stars, which begins tonight, offers no guarantees.
Still, compared to last season’s Oilers, this one has some real advantages. I’m a fan of this defensive group, three solid pairings before Mattias Ekholm returns. Music! I’m also impressed with all four lines, and the ability to successfully juggle lines and pairings on the spot. That is due in part to significant utility (many centers, plus defensemen who can play on their off side, like Brett Kulak) and bodes well for the attrition to come.
I’m never going to tell you how to fan, but it’s possible one of these two teams comes out flat tonight. It happened to the Carolina Hurricanes last night against Florida Panthers, and many observers believe Carolina will exit quickly after Game 1. I think that’s probably an overreaction to one game, and that could be the conversation tomorrow.
LINES AND PAIRINGS (MONDAY SKATE)
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman: This unit played against Dallas a year ago, and would have to be regarded as the “safe” trio at the top of the lineup. During the regular season, this line delivered a 56 percent goal share in 317 five-on-five minutes.
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen. This line was 3-3 goals in 85 minutes five-on-five during the regular season (61 percent expected). In the playoffs, it’s 1-0 goals in 19 minutes with an impressive 86 percent expected goals in a very small sample.
Kane-Henrique-Brown. This line didn’t play together at all during the regular season (Kane injury). In the playoffs, they are 2-3 goals (35 percent expected) in 34 minutes. Of all the lines that may be shelved, this is one.
Frederic-Janmark-Perry have played just 16 minutes together in the playoffs, with zero goals and 46 percent expected goals five-on-five. Perry’s like a bird on a wire with this coaching staff, he could be on the top line at the midway point of the anthem.
Kulak-Bouchard is the top pair according to Monday’s reporting from Tony Brar. In 83 minutes five-on-five this postseason, the duo is 2-1 goals and owns an expected goal share of 68 percent.
Nurse-Stecher is the listed second pair, suspect the tandem will be No. 3 in five-on-five minutes. The two have played together often, going 54 percent (52 percent expected) in 470 minutes during the regular season. They haven’t play much in the playoffs yet, but are 1-0 goals (56 percent expected) in 27 five-on-five minutes.
Walman-Klingberg are potentially the stars of the show against Dallas. Good boots, good smarts, good passing and the experience to anticipate what’s coming. They barely played together in the regular season. In the playoffs (110 minutes), they are 4-2 goals and 64 percent expected goals. Absolute game changer pairing supplied by Stan Bowman. He downplayed it a little in the media avail, but that’s a helluva fix right there.
Stuart Skinner is the starter for Game 1. He began the playoffs poorly and most recently stopped everything in sight. Goalies are voodoo. To borrow a line from my favourite song, “red means run son, and numbers add up to nothing” so we will start there and follow the changes.
A busy day on the Lowdown as we set up Game 1 of the WCF. We have Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic live from Dallas at 1:20 and will break down both sides and discuss what to expect. Also spend time on the Panthers-Hurricanes series. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: What Oilers did (and didn’t do) well against Stars in 2024 playoff series
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6369887/2025/05/21/oilers-stars-nhl-playoffs-series-stats/
I think the biggest difference for the Oilers this year over last (which you did mention) is the physicality. First the pundits went on and on about how LAK were bigger and tougher. Then it was the giant trees on the VGK defence that were going to beat the Oil.
No on both counts, team needs to come out hitting hard on the DAL d-men.
Physicality. 5v5.
We rode a hot a PP and a never seen before PK. This year our 5×5 is the best I’ve seen since the mid eighties this coincide perfectly with the refs putting away the whistles. Our D is just rounding into form as Walman and Klingberg are getting settled in and they add such a different look then Dez and Ceci. I don’t think Dallas is going to be prepared for the bombardment of grade A chances coming at them head on.
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Reading through the Hockey Canada trial has been difficult, but I promise I’m not here to comment on that.
For probably the only levity one can find throughout the past few weeks, we find defence lawyer Megan Savard’s characterization of Golden Knight Brett Howden as “unsophisticated… inarticulate, a poor communicator and careless with words… generally useless.” I am guessing that is one thing that Oilers and VGK fans could agree on last round
Daria Tuboltseva (journalist for RG Media):
Just talked to the #LetsGoOilers prospect Maxim Beryozkin and the #UtahHC prospect Daniil But. Both just won the Gagarin Cup with the Yaroslavl Lokomotiv of the KHL. Both are not sure they will join the Oilers and the Mammoth respectively for the next season
I’m glad we’re starting on the road where we’ve won 4 in a row, let’s play simple low event hockey for the first 10 minute. The home team usually has a adrenaline surge, if we escape the scripted PK and get out of the first 10 minutes even I’ll be happy. I think Frederic and Kane will feast on Dallas soft D. Let’s Go Oilers no mercy.
If I’m picking any Oil to surprise and play better than expected it’s Klingberg who’s only 32 and is coming off a serious injury but is supposedly healthy. Klingberg will be showcasing to all 32 G.M’a he still has it. Klingberg is also facing his ex team and when on Dallas i disliked him because he was so competitive and good at walking the blueline which I think we see him do more of as he gets comfortable. Klingberg is my spacek pick.
Lokomotiv wins G5 in overtime. Berezkin didn’t get any points but he won’t care – he’s a champion.
I look forward to hearing about his ELC in early June.
Seeing the prospects have Championship success has been great lately! Could this mean a signing is upcoming?
I hope so. He would be a good addition to the Oilers roster next year.
TML have granted the Islanders permission to speak to Brendan Shanahan.
https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1925261372579094605
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/maple-leafs-grant-islanders-permission-to-speak-to-brendan-shanahan/
Patty Maroon brought up a good point recently when he was talking about the Florida-Toronto series, about the defensemen taking hits and how wearing that is over the course of a series / postseason. So I looked up how many hits Oilers and Stars defensemen have taken so far in the playoffs (all strengths) and the numbers are surprising.
EDM
DAL
I wonder what their breaking point is. Can’t be far away.
Kane, Shaq, Pods need to get on these guys every chance.
And I am sorry because I like them both but if Petrovic and Ceci are on your team you are probably not going to the cup final.
Interesting! Thanks for this.
Lots of reporting today about Gretzky visiting the Stars’ locker room after their G7 win against Winnipeg to give them a pep talk.
In case anyone was confused about where the Great One’s allegiances lie.
Is this political? Dude made hockey relevant in the US. He can go to any barn and his jersey is retired there. He joked to Johnston he bugs his brother, Oiler exec Keith, for not drafting him. Benn mentioned in his presser Gretz didn’t say anything about who he’s cheering for.
Sounds like the ambassador being the ambassador.
Gretzky did not take Dallas’s side against Edmonton. Go view the damn effing video.
Correct: He even said the Oilers were the best team.
You are obviously too young to have watched the greatest hockey player ever and he was all Edmontons own. He put Edmonton on the map he was on soap operas all the talk shows when hockey was unheard of in 80% of the U.S. He’s the reason players are making big bucks. You have a right to troll all you want yet I don’t even think your a Oiler are hockey fan to begin with.
Just shows he still bleeds Oiler blue! Why would you expect him to like the Jets? Hope he still hates the Flames too!
Just watched the mini-movie WCF last year on YouTube. Ekholm was very noticeable in his shutdown and passing. Oilers are going to be a load when he returns.
Brown is a game-time decision!
Damn like Brownie on the ice for the PK.
I actually think Arvidsson is a good stylistic replacement on that 3rd line but Brown is integral to the PK.
I don’t remember him labouring at the end of last game. A hungry Arvidsson might be just what the doctor ordered. When Viktor gets the wheels going he’s very good on the forecheck as well as drawing (selling) a penalty where the Ref has no other option but to call it.
Game 1 is the time to be a bully. Take a roughing call, start some shit. You don’t want to be taking bad penalties in any game, but a hard crosscheck to Rantanen is better in game 1 than game 4. I think Dallas’ special teams are the only way they have a chance to beat the good guys, so if you’re going to be in the box, better now than next week. I think you can really soften Dallas up with some hard physicality.
Also, I’d love to see Kane beat the wheels off Benn. I mean absolutely fill him in.
^ This
I absolutely think Kane should target Benn as he will lose it and a penalty.
Easy for you to say. Benn is pure fifth when he goes dark he’ll spear you in the nuts he’ll take a two hander at you the man is a loose cannon. I would not want to be the player he looses it on.
Overheard a conversation, what was proposed was Marner (and a D?) to Edmonton for Henrique, Arvidsson and Nurse. Sounds pretty out there, what do you think?
Marner is a UFA
And all of Nurse, Henrique and Arvidsson have full NMC’s. Convincing one to waive is a low probability. All 3, pretty close to zero. Fan wishful thinking.
of course he is. They are now debating it as a sign and trade…
Marner will sign for 14 million in city where hockey is low on the totem pole He’ll get his 90 points a season but he’s not Captain material.
Now they are proposing Marner as a sign and trade as part of this… more as events warrant! Crazy to be hearing hockey chatter at the next table at a restaurant in Yucatan…
I see these same guys at Hennesseys sitting by the TV and arguing soccer, just to give this a little colour… I think they are American, like so many expats down here.
I think their reasoning is Toronto needs better D with OReilly aging out, Nurse overpaid for his role, with Walman/Klingberg being better spend of Cap dollars, the rest being Cap dumps for next season… I see where they are going, but not sure I agree… sitting next to these guys is like a live version of an Oilernation blog dialogue jaja
Their financial reasoning – as best as I can make out- is Marner as a sign and trade at 13M x term, for Nurse at 9M and we exit the cap hits for next season on henrique and Arvidsson for a net gain… also to create room for Savoie next year, easier to sign Bouchard, more Cap flexibility blah blah blah… it is fun being a fly on the wall for this bar side debate!
Now another expat has joined the heated debate at the next table. He sounds British or possibly Australian… I will let you know if they come up with anything else crazy! SO surprising to hear Oiler or Leaf debates at a cafe in Merida!!! blows my little mind!
Add in Omark and a 2nd
With a third to the Phlegms.
Awww they are leaving, They are still arguing, as they walk down Paseo de Montejo. That was an amusing and unexpected episode!
Well that might be one of the worst bits of theoretical Oilers roster building I’ve ever heard!
Alleviate cap problems by trading 3 years of Nurse at 9.25 and 1 year of Arvidsson and Rico at 3M each (I think) for 8 years of Marner at 13M+. “Unblock” Savoie by moving out two bottom-6 vets on expiring contracts and bringing in someone whose salary mandates he be your 1RW for forever. Great stuff!
It was a amusing conversation to overhear, expecially in deep Mexico. I hope you all had as much fun with it as I did!!!
WE need more good D not less! A soft regular-season winger is not what this team needs.
If Marner wants to sign as a UFA for league minimum for a 1-year try-out contract on the Oilers, definitely go for it.
I would even go to $2M.
If he hits bonus targets?
I would trade that for cap space. But not for Marner. We already gonna have 3 very big cap hits in Mcdavid Drai and Bouch
I think the Oilers may come out a little rusty tonight with the long layoff and it could possibly cost us game 1. But the rest will pay dividends and we’ll stomp them the rest of the series.
GOilers!
Reason #9573 why the NFL is ridiculous: go read up on the current situation with the Las Vegas Raiders and Ashton Jeanty.
New RB: “Hi all, I’m the Heisman trophy runner-up and you just drafted me. Super excited to join the team and help out. Let’s get it done!”
Offensive Coordinator: “You stand wrong.”
New RB: “I’ve always done it this way, seems to work…”
Offensive Coordinator: “I’ll tell you how to stand and you’ll do what I say!”
UGH….
No Connor Brown at practice/morning skate this morning.
Arvidsson in his spot.
Haven’t heard the coach speak but so much for “maintenance day”.
Everything else the same.
Ekholm taking a regular shift with Emberson.
This feels like one of them ‘game time decision’ situations.
Sounds like illness, which would be terrible. Im sure Brown will be fine, but illness running through the team would be awful.
I will be astounded if the Oilers make it out of the first period not down by 2, having been penalized for several chintzy calls. The initial script is all too predictable, but they can write their own story thereafter.
I wish there waa somewhere to make a bet on over/under penalties drawn to taken for oilers tonight.
Barring dalls in comfirtable lead: no way edmonton comes out positive.
Edmonton leading: dallas will get up to 3 to 1 on calls barring flagrant high stick type infraction. (Over 2.5)
Tie -> i’d bet dallas gets 2 to 1 on calls.
It’ll he like LA a couple years back wgere they just handed them power play after power play trying to help them back into game and if oilers extend lead near end of game they made a bunvh of make up calls so scoresheet appears balanced.
It’s a soggy grey day in southern Sask. But the birds are chirpin’ and the corsis are straining at the leash!
LFGOilers!
This is a good segue into a song that’s been in my head lately–quite possibly the jazziest song in the Guess Who catalogue.
OMG years since I heard that song. Thanks for the link (and all the updates during the year).
— Skinner has been good proxy for team play when they have played well these playoffs
— Assuming a slow start as the Oil find their game, it will be a big tell to see if Skinner can make some saves as the Oil get their grove
— If the oilers play great Skinner ought to be fine. Hope he’s ready and capable of being the best player for Oilers for stretches of this first game
The remainder of the playoffs is the Oilers against “Team Finland”.
Finns to the left of me. Finns to the right of me. Here I am, stuck in the middle with Kapanen.
Where have you gone Esa Tikkanen….
LOL I miss hearing Tikkanese!
If that’s their best trio, why not load up with Connor & Leon with Podz and neutralize them completely. That’s my solution anyway. LOL I’ll give Kris a call.
Very interesting to see the “experts” breaking this series down. All of the non-math analysts on the various sites have Dallas picked by probably a 70/30 maybe 80/20 split. Much of the verbal is identical to last year, better depth, better D, better goalie, etc.
I remember last year after the series, looking back, and I couldn’t understand where that “better depth argument” was coming from, especially on the blue line. In hindsight, I felt, the experts were just plainly wrong, relying on a narrative rather than objective fact.
Part of me feels the same going into this year, but I don’t want to get ahead of myself. I just find myself scratching my head at the vaunted depth of a blue line that contains the likes of Ceci, Petrovic, and Lybushkin – but we will see.
The math on this series tells a different story at this point though. At the Athletic, they have the Oilers as the 53% favorites. Still coin flip territory, but a lot kinder to the Oilers than the analyst narrative out there.
I pray for McDavid minutes versus Lybushkin. It’s an unfair matchup.
I think Lybushkin starts out of the lineup….
Regaring depth, most pundits base this on regular season, as they have watched little of the Oilers and the stats back up their argument. Pete DeBoer is no dummy though. He said they are doing their scouting based on playoff Oilers, not regular season Oilers. If only he was a simple as 90% of the american mainstream media, it’d be a sweep.
I came to say something very similar. Based on regular season performance, the fact that the Oilers have done what they’ve done is astounding. From adding Kane back, acquiring Frederic, the re-emergence of Klingberg and the plain ol’ raised level of play, this is a completely different team than the regular season Oilers.
We’ve added so much depth that we’ve pushed Emberson and Arvidsson (among others) off the lineup sheet. Not exactly typical bottom of the roster players.
Last year we roasted Tanev, this year it will be Ceci.
Everyone online seems to be gushing about Dallas and Oettinger in particular. Martin Biron had an interesting stat on him though – he has allowed the most high danger goals of any goalie in the playoffs. So which team creates the most high danger chances? The Edmonton Oilers. To be fair to Oettinger he has a decent HD save percentage, but Dallas allows a lot of HD chances.
Another comment by Biron – Oettinger is susceptible to sharp angle shots due to the reverse VH he employs. He has allowed 7 sharp angle shots so far in the playoffs, the most of any goalie.
Leon Draisaitl, come on down.
Dallas has fairly thing D-group and quite a few forwards not known for their 2-way play.
Imagine the Oil making the WCF again only this time neither of 97 or 29 have gone supernova yet. If they get rolling offensively too, oh mama….
Bring on the Dallas Rantanens.
Toupee Shakur, I like the handle. Hopefully you’ve squashed that beef with The Notorious W.I.G.
Amazingly Edmonton appears to be going into this conference final as underdogs. That’s ok, Connor’s not going to like that and that’s fine by me.
We have high-end talent in two of the best players to ever play the game, legit middle/top 6 forwards and 30 goal scorers sitting in the pressbox, three legit D pairings and a healthy dose of sandpaper up and down the lineup and the experience of going to game 7 in the SCF.
I have no idea how anyone considers us the underdogs, but I agree that that likely benefits the team as well. They play better with their backs against the wall and when it’s an “us against the world” kind of atmosphere.
Goaltending. Jake is Jake whereas Skinner is a unknown. Do we get Vegas Skinner L.A Skinner or somewhere in the middle.
Yes, I’ve consumed a lot of online content over the past week and people are overwhelmingly picking Dallas. Not just picking them, but gushing over the Stars roster while simultaneously ignoring the Oilers strengths.
Here are some 5v5 stats that should give these people pause:
45.46 CF%
44.80 SF%
47.62 GF%
48.96 xGF%
48.93 HDCF%
1.009 PDO
All strengths they’re 34-38 goals with a 1.013 PDO (21-24 v COL and 13-14 v WPG). They aren’t even getting shooting luck, they’re just getting goals at the right time. I don’t see why everyone is so high on them. They’re a good team but not a great one – they haven’t overwhelmed any of their opponents.
Edmonton in five.
I don’t get it either. It must be wishful thinking.
The elephant in the room:
“Though Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston are bigger names up the middle, it was actually Matt Duchene who led the club in regular-season scoring with 82 points.
Getting that sort of production almost as an afterthought while Johnston and Hintz drew the tougher defensive assignments had all the makings of a championship-winning luxury, especially after Duchene’s linemate Tyler Seguin drew back into the lineup just in time for the first round.
Duchene is certainly an afterthought, but not for the reasons Dallas had hoped. Amid Hintz’s star turn and Johnston’s tough puck luck (playoff-worst -13, .966 PDO), the wily vet has been concerningly anonymous. A year on from posting a paltry six points during a deep Stars playoff run, the veteran speedster again finds himself on the milk carton with all of four assists in 13 games.
The electric chemistry the 34-year-old developed with Mason Marchment and Seguin before the latter’s months-long recovery from hip surgery has been absent this spring; Seguin’s two goals and five points are high-water marks for the trio.
The Duchene line’s play-driving metrics have been excellent since Seguin’s old pal Jamie Benn replaced Marchment, but the goals were still missing against Winnipeg despite the unit’s huge 24-9 lead in scoring chances.
Expected goals must turn into real ones for Duchene and Co. to turn the Stars’ vaunted depth from a paper tiger to a legitimate threat against Edmonton.”
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2025-stanley-cup-playoffs-dallas-stars-vs-edmonton-oilers-series-preview-pick-prediction-schedule
The Stars, in my opinion, are a great team when their secondary tier of forwards and playing near the tops of their games.
They have not, at all, in the playoffs – my fear is that could turn around at any second (and the Oilers tertiary tier could stop “over-performing).
That’s the concern.
Going into the postseason – heck going into the season – the Oil were deep on paper but in reality struggling, injuries aside. Then somehow they flipped a switch, mid-series, to become a 5v5 monster. The double hope is that that switch *stays * flipped, and that the Stars’ fingers fumble in finding theirs.
so excited for tonight! Lets go oilers!
Listened to your show yesterday Lowetide, and regarding the TML – I have to agree: Get Good Players – Keep Good Players! You can’t deny that Matthews and Marner are talented players. It is hard to acquire those types of players. It sucks to lose so often in the playoffs, but they have to improve the depth and bottom 6 and defence. Not trade their best players!
The thing about good and great players is this – you can trade them for other good and great players.
Trading Auston Matthews (the subject of yesterday’s conversation) is a bad idea imo. An acquiring team isn’t going to give you their franchise player, because that team wants to win now. It’s a sticky wicket. Matthews has an overwhelming chance to be the best player in any deal, and so you’re acquiring 9’s and 10’s for a King. That’s a no from me.
I’m all in on trading Matthews – have seen nothing that indicates he can handle the heat of a Leafs playoff run. You can’t pay that kind of cash for someone who’s never going to bring home the only real prize in your situation. Others will believe they can get him over the finish line outside of that pressure cooker.
I could see a southern US team paying an utter ransom for the guy. It also opens up $$$s that can be spent and despite the impact in many players’ sanity, a bunch of stars still want to play in Toronto.
For all of our sakes I hope they don’t do it – but that is the path out of their current version of misery.
I don’t buy for one second that MLSE actually cares that much about a Cup though. It is a TV show for them.
If Brendan Shanahan thought for 1 second that he did not have full support from MLSE to try to win the cup, he would quit in a heart beat. That he has failed thus far is execution and/or strategy, not motivation. They spend to the full cap every season.
Matt Kassian or Joaquin Gage (can’t remember which) on Edmonton Sports Talk floated the idea of a Matthews trade to LA with a return built around Byfield.
It’s very tempting from a Toronto perspective and LA might be tempted to make a big splash. I could see Matthews vetoing it because he doesn’t want to go up against Connor every year.
Numerous times someone has suggested that a player in Matthews situation (star player on a contending team with a full NMC with more than 2 years remaining), should be traded, I have asked if the person suggesting it can name even one instance where a GM has been able to accomplish that.
No one has ever provided an answer to that question. Hint: it has probably only ever happened once where Ron Hextall being Ron Hextall got Hartnell, by making things miserable for him, to agree to wave. Otherwise I don’t believe GM has been able to get this scenario to happen.
Matthews has absolute full control of this situation and he is only leaving if he wants and only to where he wants to go if he decides to leave.
Milan Lucic??? lol.
LOL indeed. In what way does Lucic’s situation in 2019 seem like a Star player on a contending team? His career was in shambles having scored 6 goals and 20
points in 79 games. And he accepted a trade from a team that finished 25th overall to a team that won the conference and finished 3rd overall. Not at all like asking Matthews to leave his situation in Toronto.
I never mentioned Karlsson waiving his NMC with several seasons left to leave San Jose for Pittsburgh either since again not all the criteria in the Matthews situation.
Marner is a UFA soon so TML get nothing for the asset. Like Columbus when they lost the Breadman and Bob for nothing. Shanny should be fired asap.
They get a big chunk of cap space. This too is an asset
true, and it was a way bigger asset in the flat cap world. Marners previous contract cost them dearly. But that was a past sin, doesn’t have to be a future sin.
It is quite a bit easier to aquire a Connor Brown-esque player than it is to find a Leon Draisaitl. Matthews isn’t a Draisaitl, but he is far closer than the average player you can get with ‘cap space’.
Losing Marner for nothing sucks – but entertaining trading Matthews is foolish.
This is also a factor in whether or not to trade Matthews.
Depending on the return in any trade, Matthews $13.25 million would provide the Leafs with a huge opportunity to re-set their roster.
For example, it’s been widely discussed that Utah, with renovations to their arena opening up thousands of new seats, will be likely to make a big splash this offseason.
Their most pressing need is a veteran #1C so they might bite on a deal that included Logan Cooley, Maveric Lamoureux, picks and other prospects.
That would leave the Leafs with somewhere near $35 million in cap space to pursue other transactions.
There is rumours that Auston is dealing with a Chonic type injury he obviously can play through it. This year he definitely didn’t come close to the career year he had after the wrist surgery. If Utah has a package of 2-3 of the young talent that’s bubbling over I make the deal while the iron is hot.
Based on his tepid post-season remarks, I doubt Matthews would block a trade to a preferred destination.
Considering his SW U.S. roots Utah just might work.
Marner and Matthews in Utah would be quite the splash for the area and hockey in general.
If I’m the leafs no way I make that
deal without Keller included
As an Oiler fan, game 1 means absolutely nothing, a win is gravy.
I wonder if Arvi gets a game or two in place of Freddy. Freddy has looked a bit behind the play at times.
I’m not a huge fan of Kapanen on the second line with Drai. I know he scored the big goal against vegas, and they’ve been carrying play according to LT’s numbers above, but I feel like he’s a liability out there. That said, not a terrible thing to have a guy like Arvi ready to come in fresh later in the series either
Kapanen is, by a large margin, the lease reliable forward with the puck. There was a reason he had such a large minus during the regular season – he earned it.
He was great in game 4 but made a couple questionable puck plays in game 5.
I like his speed and physicality but not sure that he’s long for the lineup in a shutdown type role….
Game Day!
Suspect the Oilers will need to weather an early push from the Stars right from the start. As someone mentioned earlier, take no penalties and get out of the first no worse than tied.
Can’t wait!
For those lines and pairings listed, no reason to not start with how they finished last series – all lines and pairings were playing well (by memory) and they had back to back shutouts and the team defence made it so that Stu wasn’t even their best player (for sure in game 4).
The Oilers also have three other lines that were among the top 10 in expected goal share:
Kane/Nuge/Hyman
Drai/McDavid/Perry
Can’t remember the third – I think it was Rico and Brown based
They have four lines and 3 pairings rolling. They have a secondary set-up that has been high end. They have the likes of Arvidsson and Skinner to add. They have Mattias Ekholm likely to play at some point.
Wagon!
They could always go back to:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Perry
Kane-Nuge-Hyman
Frederic-Henrique-Brown
Podz-Janmark-Arvidsson
But who knows Knoblauch might figure out something entirely different.
Game one is a feeling out process.
You know who I’d like to see with Connor & Leon?
Podkolzin
I’d also enjoy seeing Noah Philp make an appearance at 4C.
The luxury of riches! And a coach who is willing to spend them.
They’re not scratching playoff Janmark for Philp.
Folks need to come to grips with the coach being 100% comfortable with Janmark as 4C and a late game protect the lead player he doesn’t hesitate to throw over the boards.
Questioning the coach at this point is foolish.
Who’s questioning the coach & who’s saying anything about scratching Janmark? He also plays on the wing; in case you weren’t aware.
I’m sure the team and fans would gladly take a split I’m greedy I want to demolish Dallas. The Panther-Oil rematch is what the entire hockey world awaits Dallas and Carolina are both good teams but they are a formality. Oilers may be rusty but they will be focused I could see a OT game.
Carolina is a formality for Florida, but Dallas can easily win this series. They have the better goaltender, and remember that some very smart hockey minds have said hockey should be renamed to “mostly goalie.” Dallas’ depth will also get going in this series, they will not put up goose eggs for the entire playoffs. Oilers absolutely have their hands full.
Do they? I recall the entire planet saying the same thing last season too and our boy Stu served up a steaming mug of STFU… I hear the kettle starting to boil again….
Let us pray for the second coming of St. Skinner of the Nets 🙏
There is no reasonable doubt (in my opinion) that Jake O. is a “better goaltender” than Stuart Skinner but that does not mean that he will perform better over any particular stretch of games, such as a playoff series, as we saw a year ago.
Here is hoping Skinner plays the best hockey of his NHL career like he did in round 3 last season.
I think Pickard getting the W’s and playing well has helped relax Skiinner. The weight of the world doesn’t completely fall on his shoulders as if he has a bad game or two Pickard can step in and get the W. What I’m trying to say is Pickard and Skinner are feeding off of each other in a competitive and good way.
Except Pickard hasn’t been available since Skinner started playing again – he still hasn’t even skated.
I think you can chalk up last night’s game to Carolina’s legs being a little stiff and Florida being in the middle of game day/ off day, game day/ off day cycle. Oilers might take a little to find it tonight as well. I think this is fine. It’s an advantage for the team that’s coming in hot early, but the rest is an advantage as the series wears on. There are going to be a lot of eyes on Skinner/ Ottinger and I think when it’s over Stu will be able to thank the mental toughness that he’s developed somehow despite getting the ‘core 4’ treatment from much of the fanbase. Ottinger is a bit of an anti Stu in that he gets a bit more credit than he deserves and seldom wears the blame when the Stars lose. Here’s hoping they’re reevaluating in Dallas a week and a half from now.
Nope, Florida’s getting the brooms out.
This team always scares me when they get time off. Hope they come out guns blazing.
Hyman mentioned a material difference between a break like this one and the Christmas of Four Nations breaks – for those, the team was shut down and, unless they chose to organize a skate on their own, the players were away from the rink and off the ice. For this break, they’ve been at the rink, skating, meetings, preparing, etc.
Go the first 10 minutes without being shorthanded. Keep Stu’s streak going through the 1st period. Make Heiskanen accumulate ice packs.
The London Knights play by play guy was on with Escott on his show last night.
Maybe he was playing to the audience but he raved about both O’Reily and Nicholl.
With O’Reily he said he’s never seen a player as committed to getting better as O’Reily. Talked about in-game he does absolutely everything right.
Players who’s goal is to be the best player in the league are always the best bets
The organization targeted this kid I think it was Jackson getting some good inside intel on not only O’Reilly but his teammate Nicholl. The memorial Cup should be fun to watch as will get a good look at O’Reilly&Nicholl and Gavin McKenna.
Memorial cup will be a fun watch with those two.
I definitely get why Nicholl was drafted. He makes the occasional electric play with good finesse and smarts. Many of his highlights don’t end in a goal which is likely a product of his finishing and linemates but fits the Oils MO of making great plays consistently until it all averages out.
Going back to junior next season wouldn’t be the worst outcome for O’Reilly.
I think he has more to give offensively, even though he increased his p/p/g from 0.82 to 1.15 this season.
He’d also get to wear a letter, which I’m pretty sure he hasn’t done yet. He’ll at least get an A, and conceivably the C if Dickinson, Barkey and Cowan all turn pro.
O’Reily will almost assuredly be back in junior next season (Nicholl as well) as he’s not age eligible for the AHL and its unreasonable to think he’s breaking in with the Oilers full time.
I’ve been saying for a while, with their graduations at forward, it will be Sam’s team I suspect.
As far as coming out flat, well, the Oilers have had a full week. Great for rest and recovery and in the long run – I don’t think they’ll come out flat but may not be as sharp early.
3 days off for Dallas is likely perfect for them for game 1 – some rest and recovery but no lack of sharpness. The extra rest/recovery for the Oilers should benefit them as the series goes on but probably not for game 1.
Edmonton will wear down Dallas over seven games much the same way Florida will wear down Carolina over seven games. This year’s Edmonton Oilers is a mirror image of the Florida Panthers. It will make for an intriguing cup finale with Oilers having home ice advantage this time around.
The Panthers are mimicking the Oilers (or is it the other way around) with their depth scoring
That is a good and deep team and with Skinner/Arvidsson and Ekholm/Stecher available to add (Ekholm at some point).
The Dallas forwards are also VERY deep and scary deep. 100% they have underperformed through the playoffs and the Oilers depth has been MUCH better but that could turn at any time.
Thankfully the Oilers will play structured and committed defence with full back-track commitment across all four lines.
Should be a fun one!
Good morning LT 🙂
Do you expect a slow start with Edmonton since they had alot of time off? Vote up for yes down for no.
Dallas has had 4 days of rest versus our 7 days. Both teams are rested, not exactly even but what is the number of days where rust accumulates?
Rust never sleeps.
7 full days for Edmonton.
3 full days for Dallas (1 full day for Florida before starting prior to Dallas……)
This is not the regular season version of the Edmonton Oilers. This playoff team is on a mission.
The first won’t be as strong as we’d like it to be. They’ll storm back for the 2nd and 3rd though. Win.
It’s a trend I’ve noticed with Edmonton, and I hope they continue their winning streak. 😁
Ladies and gentlemen, here we go!!!!