No matter how hard everyone tries, fate has decided this spring will be a lightning rod moment for Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner. As you know, I am pro-Skinner and would play him in Game 2 of this series versus Dallas Stars. That runs counter with (I believe) most Oilers fans and we’ll see what the coaching staff decides in the hours to come. What we can agree on today, I think, is that the goaltending for Edmonton was poor in Game 1 against Dallas.
Skinner had a tough third period, and appeared to do a Kevin Spacey impersonation ala House of Cards (looking in the camera to offer insight into the situation for the viewer) instead of putting himself in any kind of position to save the winning goal. That’s not good enough.
There’s no way the Oilers can let in five goals in a period after all of the hard work in the first 40 minutes without a long look in the mirror. That includes Skinner.
For me, I have several questions this morning. It starts with my traditional rant about the Oilers: I’ve never seen a true Stanley Cup contender with this kind of gap between ceiling and floor. It’s incredible. The trip from generational to rancid can be as quick as the elevator down at the Space Needle (it used to take about 20 seconds and was a thrill ride). The highest highs and lowest lows available in hockey were available to Oilers fans last night.
The gap was perfectly displayed on the first two goals last night. First, expert passing and positioning allowed Leon Draisaitl a sliver of room to break for the net and deliver a crushing blow to the Stars. A little later, a similar play near the blue line resulted in a breakaway and a 1-1 tie. You love the first, can’t have the second. Same as it ever was.
THE NUMBERS
When I was a kid, adults would be irritated when people stood in front of the television. “You make a better door than a window” they would say, and maybe that still happens (I’m the only one who watches television in the house, everyone else watches the computer). The Oilers PK needs to allow Edmonton’s goaltender to see the shot clean, and there were several examples of the opposite last night. Make no mistake, you need your goalie to stop screened pucks just by being in good position and recognizing late. However, it would be nice if teammates would make life a little easier. If you can’t block it, get out of the way. If you can block it, and didn’t, then you don’t belong in this series.
I think the Oilers lost the script a little last night at five-on-five. The Stars don’t play a suffocating style, so it’s little wonder the skilled Edmonton players loved the room to wheel. Those blue line turnovers should serve as a reminder that a fancy play that fails can often result in a goal for the other guys.
The PK is garbage. I’ve seen better at the Ice Capades. That includes all men on the ice for the experience. It ruined a good night. Hell, Stuart Skinner’s five-on-five save percentage last night (.909) was solid, but we won’t talk about that today because of the PK.
One good thing about all of this, including the penalty kill: Kris Knoblauch and the coaching staff are good at workarounds, and will solve the PK issue.
I don’t think panic over last night’s game is a good idea, and doubt most Oilers fans will get their gonch in a knot over it. That said, there’s real waste in the Oilers game this year, it’s continued over many seasons. Why would a team work so hard, be so disciplined, only to throw it all away like flyers (fliers?) on the doorstep? You’ll have to ask the Oilers.
As for the discussion today, I’m hopeful we can raise the level of conversation beyond “Skinner stinks” because there is a team failure here that needs to be examined. I hope we can have that conversation, here, today.
The Lowdown today should have plenty of fire based on last nights’ Game 1. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will join us, and we’ll read your texts. We’ll preview the ECF game, and talk NBA, MLB and NFL. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Any news on Calvin Pickard? It’s been 2 weeks since Round 2 Game 2 when Tomas Hertl “accidentally” fell on his legs. Is his season done? Hate to be a Debby Downer but i just can’t see Skinner getting this team 8 more wins.
Frederik Dichow doesn’t have a contract right now, with Montréal having relinquished his rights and never signed him to an ELC. Potentially another gamble shot for Bowman?
Maybe it couldn’t hurt, if they have the goalie slots for the pipeline. Obviously McDavid and Bouchard are the first priorities.
I personally think when Skinner tries ro do too much is when the goals go in on him. When he’s trying to play the puck, flopping around pulling his best Hasek or he comes far out of the net to challenge or take an angle away.
What I saw the previous 2 games versus last night was Skinner was clam, in the next, focused on staying between the pipes and using he ability to block off as much of the net as possible, last night is what I see when Skinner has a bad game overall. Worried about getting out to the puck with more than stopping it behind the net, trying to make highlight reel saves instead of staying in the net and doing what he is good at.
Maybe I’m wrong, I’m not a goalie coach or ever played goal but it seems like Skinner, some games, gets himself excited, nervous, anxious and then tries to do his best Mike Smith passes or Hasek saves.
Skinner hate can come with frustrating and sometimes illogical comments. However, what doesn’t get similarly called out is the cognitive dissonance that some have in defending him while using objectively/factually flawed arguments:
Dude, Skinner should’ve known better! He’s been playing goalie since he was ten. Yeah, I get the interference call, but seriously, keep your eyes on the puck, not the ref! He could’ve moved to the other side of the net if he hadn’t done that. Just keep playing until the whistle blows, man. Every coach says that! 💯
He was lost he played it like recreational goaltender. The scary part is no one is surprised when he lets these ugly goals in at the worst times. The Skinner pushback is what do you want for 2.6 and when Pickard plays he’s judged on his game not salary. I do think L.A had a better team than Dallas our problem is we don’t have Pickard as our saviour.,
Some other things to consider
Playoffs 4 v 5
Oilers have had 54 PIM
They have an expected goals % of 15.21:
They actually have the 2nd best corsi% of all 16 playoff teams at 17.31% (DAL 7.97%), and 3rd best Fenwick at 18.6% (DAL 9.09%).
The lack of SHG we can likely all agree has been due to lack of finish, given that the most dangerous chances have come on 2 on 1s with Brown and Janmark. I actually think it should be higher than 1.17, but even so, 1-2 SHG in the last 12 games could have softened the blow of the shitty PK in 1-2 games
OK, but when it comes to defending, goal differential above expected of -7.65 over 12 games suggests something is amiss.
Shots against
Oilers (54 min PIM): High Danger 8, Medium Danger 21, Low Danger 41
Florida (61 min PIM): High Danger 5, Medium Danger 11, Low Danger 38
Dallas (74 min PIM): High Danger 11, Medium Danger 23, Low Danger 66
Florida (79 min PIM): High Danger 13, Medium Danger 10, Low Danger 54
Hard to compare, because can’t adjust/60 mins, but the biggest thing that jumps out at me is that Edm has clearly given up highest rate of medium danger shots.
That is a problem because Skinner isn’t doing well agains them in this 6 game sample:
S% above expected for HD, MD, LD shots, this playoffs, min 3 GP (20 goalies)
Skinner: HD -0.004 (17th/20), MD -0.064 (20th/20), LD -0.008 (10th/20)
Pickard: HD 0.000 (16th), MD +0.019 (11th), LD -0.01 (11th)
Pickard has been poor against high danger chances
Skinner has been poor against medium and high danger chances
In regular season, Skinner was 12th of 61 goalies (min 20 GP) for S% above expected for HD at +0.124, while 46th of 61 for MD at -0.024, similarly mediocre for LD 39th at -0.009
There is room for improvement for Skinner on the PK even towards established levels during the regular season. Too many medium danger shots given up, despite goalie struggles. It is truly a shared problem
Last post season both Skinner and Pickard were above expected on the PK, Skinner by more than 5 goals.
What’s different??? It’s the D. All season different.
No Ekholm (presently) No Ceci, No Desharnais. Fewer shutdown D. Ekholm, Walman, Kulak on the “wrong” side at times. Add in almost rookie Emberson.
Nurse-Ceci was a good PK shutdown pair. Nurse-Ekholm or Nurse-Walman has been terrible.
The forwards are still good I think. Althought Janmark needs to block that Heiskanen goal.
To fix the PK, you need Ekholm back. You need everyone on their natural side. And you might be better without Nurse, unless you can find him a Ceci.
Ryan, McLeod, Foegle were all excellent up front. Huge turnover across the board.
Which is why I said at the time of the Frederic trade that those resources should have been spent on a physical forward who could PK. That’s been a weakness all season.
I would agree with a lot of this. Not all medium danger shots are created equal, and they are being given up at too high of a rate.
Skinner’s save percentage on the PK in the playoffs last year was also unreal, by eye and by stats. Despite the fact that they were still giving up (13-30-90 HD-MD-LD shots/125 PIM) chances.
Maybe they don’t have the horses to be as aggressive, and should focus on keeping them to the outside for more LD chances
Another great post dangilitis. So I’ll add another tangentially related stat line:
Game – Opponent -Penalty differential by game (NHL.com) and by seconds on the PP minus seconds on the PK
1 LA -3 -140s
2 LA -2 -132s
3 LA 0 -194s
4 LA 0 -129s
5 LA -1 -8s
6 LV -1 -145s
7 LV -1 -40s
8 LV -1 +254s Roy 5 minute major in OT
9 LV 0 -70s
10 LV -1 -120s
11 LV +1 +120s
12 DAL -1 -18s
Total -9 -622s or -10:22 and trending
46:38 total on the PP 57:00 total on the PK.
Canada knocked out of the WHC by….Denmark.
A 2-1 Danish win, scoring the tying goal with the tendy pulled, then winning it in the final minute.
Both Danish goals assisted by Oilers legend Patrick Russell.
Could be a national holiday in Denmark tomorrow.
A bet on Denmark paid 18-1.
Oilers: we are the best chokers
Canada WHC: hold my Carlsburg!
The winning goal.
https://x.com/senstalk_/status/1925654331560263953?s=61
If a conversation is to be had, it should start with explaining these metrics. Seriously.
Playoffs 4 v 5 (20 goalies, min 3 GP):
Goals saved above expected
Oettinger 1st/20 at +3.4
Pickard 19th/20 at -3.1
Skinner 20th/20 at -3.4
Goals saved above expected/60 min
Oettinger 2nd at +2.731
Pickard 18th at -6.481
Skinner 20th at -7.781
S% above expected on unblocked shots
Oettinger 2nd at +0.0267
Skinner 17th at -0.0733
Pickard 19th at -0.0777
Wins above replacement
Oettinger 1st, +0.57 over 74 mins
Pickard 19th, -0.52 over 28 mins
Skinner 20th, -0.54 over 26 mins
Goals saved above expected tries to account for quality of chances, this is not save percentage. But do people really believe that the Oilers have the worst penalty killing unit, and the Stars have the best? Or is it that the best penalty killer is your goalie?
This really frames the conversation. If you think the PK unit has been awful, then you are going to absolve Skinner and Pickard of responsibility.
However… objective data would suggest that Oettinger is making Dallas’ PK unit look better than they should, while Pickard and Skinner have made the Oilers PK crew look awful, and have collectively cost us 1 game these playoffs compared to a replacement level goalie (not compared to a goalie like Oettinger)
These stats would also suggest that both goalies have been equally porous on PK, which I would tend to agree with. In fact, going into last night, I would have argued that Skinner had been the better goalie on PK (and objectively would have been supported here), in part because I felt that he had been better at fighting through screens.
OK, you’ll tell me. Like LT said, it was that the Oilers players last night couldn’t get out of Skinner’s way. That may be true. All year long, though???
Regular Season 4 v 5 (61 goalies, min 20 GP):
Goals saved above expected, min 1 GP –
Skinner 39th -1.3
Pickard 53rd -4.2
Goals saved above expected/60 min, min 1GP
Skinner 37th -0.403
Pickard 56th -2.064
S% above expected on unblocked shots
Skinner 37th at -0.0039
Pickard 57th at -0.0231
Wins above replacement
Skinner 38th -0.21
Pickard 53rd -0.69
GSA Expected/60 is significantly better here over the regular season for both goalies, but still well below average. Skinner performs better here over larger sample, suggesting last night’s performance is skewing his playoff numbers over a limited sample size.
But don’t mistake these numbers for vindication.
Despite my ire for Skinner, the data would suggest that he is actually the better long-term choice in lining up against the Stars’ PP, but neither choice seems optimal at the moment
Great post. I’ll add one quick stat.
Penalty differential in the 2025 playoffs.
16.Edmonton Oilers -9
Can’t believe some posters were suggesting status quo in net for next season based on 2 good outings out of 5 and an inconsistent reg season. Stanley B could completely restock the position org wide and the risk would be no higher
From what I’ve read on the blog the chief concern is replacing the $3.6M tandem and remaining under the cap. It’s a difficult problem. And I know many believe NMC’s will magically disappear but that is a rare thing (people want to win the Stanley Cup when signing in Edmonton).
The absence of alternatives clears the mind. I’d love to see trade ideas, not involving NMC’s, that allow Edmonton to acquire Swayman or other.
With the cap hit for Jack Campbell jumping over the $2 million mark the next two seasons, the bill for goaltending is well over $5 million.
They certainly cannot afford to make another mistake,
You don’t need to pay big bucks there is average goalies all over the place. We have already seen we’re unbeatable with average goaltending. Go find a Logan Thompson or a couple more Pickard types for 1 mil cap hit. If they work they work if not who cares the insanity part would be trying Skinner for the forth time time next year if he doesn’t get it together and make a few saves.
I don’t think targeting Swayman (as a for instance) is a great idea – it’s a big chunk of the cap and that brings a lot of risk with it. He wasn’t very good this season either.
Although currently injured, Varlamov could be acquired fairly cheaply (mid round pick?) and doesn’t break the bank ($2.75M). He could push Skinner for the 1A role with the total cost less than $5.5M next year.
https://x.com/friedgehnic/status/1925643375060959725?s=61
The Maple Leafs announce Brendan Shanahan’s contract will not be renewed
Losing has consequences the culture of bubble wrapping Leaf players didn’t work. When the opposing winning team trolls you by pretending to feel sorry for you with no push back it’s time for a change. The only reason you don’t fire Berube is that he has a Cup.
All-time postseason games played:
.
.
25.McDonough: 196 (next active player)
42.Crosby: 180
46.Malkin: 177
Perry will move into sole possession of #7 tomorrow night, and if the Oilers go the distance this year could end up as high as #3. Impressive!
Perry is also #45 all time for postseason points (134), tied with Lafleur, Shanahan & Thornton. McDavid is at #44 with 136 points, one back of Phil Esposito (in 44 fewer games).
Perry is #36 all time for postseason goals (59), tied with Coffey, Makita and Marchand.
Pickard is 6W OL He’s a average goalie that makes the saves to get the W’s Skinner is 2W-4L all we need is average. Pickard is probably done we’re stuck with fragility of Skinner. Pickard stole game 2 in Vegas I believe Skinner inability to make a save in the 3rd cost us a good outing. Bowman failure to address this may cost us a Cup. If Skinner gets lit up again how do you get him reset time with beachball Rodrique backing him up.
I think Bowman acquires Nashville’s tender in the summer.
The 30 year old that is about to start in 8-year deal for near $7.5MM that is coming off a .896?
kane, Henrique, and frederic, played poorly
I am more than puzzled at the lack of discussion revolving on the fourth goal against last night, the third PP goal by Dallas. Wyatt Johnston is skating through the slot and slightly extends his right leg which trips Stecher. Stecher falls backwards into Hintz who falls into the crease. By bad luck the puck rims around to Duchene who is wide open because the guy who is supposed to be covering him, Stecher, had fallen because he was tripped by Johnston’s skate. I would love to hear you smart people’s thoughts on why Johnston tripping Stecher was not a penalty. I don’t think it was on purpose (although it may have been as his leg comes out) but either way if your skate trips up an opposing player’s skate to the extent that he falls that is supposed to be a penalty, just like if your stick accidentally rides up somebody’s face like Kane, or between their legs and they fall, it’s still a penalty. Crazy coach asked below why no Oilers were on Duchene when he was shooting…it’s because Stecher was supposed to be but he had fallen into Hintz and was in the crease getting up when Duchene was shooting. I have found this non call and lack of noticing the non call very frustrating when to me it is the single biggest reason we lost the game…ref blows the whistle and its 4×4 with a 3-3 tie in the third period…
Kapanen needs to come back out of the lineup.
I thank him for his physicality and energy in game 4 and his big goal in game 5 but his play decreased game over game – as it tends to do.
Both Arvidsson and Skinner are better NHL players. Skinner is a better defensive player than Kapanen as well.
It doesn’t work this way as the play on the ice wouldn’t be the same but, while he may not have scored, I doubt Jeff Skinner whiffs on the chance from the slot in the 3rd period like Frederic did…..
Skinner played 6 straight games with McDavid registering a secondary assist. He whiffed alot.
I’m not sure what playing with McDavid has to do with my post and I’m not sure I recall seeing Jeff Skinner whiff on an open look from the slot (or on any shot).
Jeff Skinner played 36 regular season games in 2025 and was 4th in 5 on 5 scoring among forwards (despite being scratched for 8 games) and led the team in 5 on 5 goal share.
Having scored 373 goals in his career, i like him shooting from the slot.
Allan Walsh
@walsha
NHL playoff ratings in the U.S. are very disappointing and concerning.
Front Office Sports
@FOS
NHL playoff viewership is down a massive 28% on ESPN platforms, with games averaging just 886,000 viewers.
Stanley Cup playoff games are also down 19% on TNT Sports platforms.
https://x.com/walsha/status/1925583495558308275
Have they considered giving the Oilers a 3 am time slot?
While Dallas is top 5 TV market, Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Raleigh and Edmonton are relatively tiny.
I doubt the time schedule of Oilers games matters much.
Having 3 Sunbelt teams in the final four is far from ideal.
Coach confirms Ekholm will not play game 2.
I don’t think PK is a systems/coaching issue, it is lack of execution by the players.
DeBoer told them after the second period, if you’re going to lose at least make them earn it. Obviously, the Oilers weren’t prepared to earn it. If Edmonton is going to win this series, they will have to earn it.
I don’t see how anyone can fault Skinner for last night.
The Oilers through the first two periods convinced themselves the game was going to be a cake walk. Lazy passes, lazy coverage, dumb penalties, they knew it was all going to be fine. They thought they had lucked-out and semi-finals for the Stanley cup was a gift of lopsided pond hockey.
Dallas didn’t have that idea and they decided to get things together for the 3rd period. End of game.
You wonder what Oilers fans would expect the score to be if the only player the Oilers put on the ice was Skinner.
Ok so 40 good minutes then a pk nightmare. Oilers win tomorrow and all is somewhat forgotten.
NO MORE cheap penalties please and thank you in advance.
If skinner is confidently handling the puck he tends to be playing well. When he’s mishandling the puck you might as well pull him.
im wondering on that game winning goal how much longer he would have needed to get across his net
— Yesterday I opined that it will be a tell to see how Skinner will do when he needs to be the best player on the ice given it’s the first Oilers game in a week. Well we got the answer
— Think of Skinner as an ETF tracker: 2 versions available :
1) when team plays well this Skinner ETF tracks closely as a proxy for team play. High correlation
2) when the team gets some chaos the leveraged 3x Skinner ETF: his performance is 3x the teams chaos. Lots of torque
— Regrettably the inverse ETF, where Skinner does better than the team : that one is not currently available : here are the codes
#PROXY_SKIN.TO
#SIEVE.SKIN.TO
Which line/pairing did DeBoer have playing v the Henrique line (shift chart only does reg season)? Conversely, does this mean the Oilers kept the Ranta/Hintz line in check despite DeBoer’s matching? By eye, the Ranta/Hintz line didn’t look overwhelming at all.
Henrique faced the 3rd pairing and 4th line of the Stars the most.
If we don’t take all those careless penalties in the third, we aren’t talking about half the stuff we are talking about today. Yet noones talking discipline.
I posted last night that the biggest adjustment the team needs to make is for veterans to not take stick penalties away from the puck, adding that ought to be the easiest fix a hockey team can make.
There’s no point in getting mad at your Ferrari because it can’t tow your trailer. It’s not built for that. Skinner’s fine. If his teammates do their job Skinner can do his, but he’s not good enough to make up for poor play in front of him. He’s a replacement level goaltender and paid accordingly. Skinner isn’t even the highest paid Skinner on the team. The other Skinner and Arvidsson were wearing suits. Even the most casual hockey fan could see the glaring hole in the Oilers lineup yet management decided to invest elsewhere. Maybe adding depth up front was the way to go. I’m doubtful, but there’s a reason I’m not paid to make these decisions.
Is Stu the Ferrari? I think he might be the F150.
I’m very happy that management spent on Klingberg and Walman – I don’t think any reasonable goalie upgrade in-season puts us in a better spot than we are with those two.
I watched last nights game and it was Dickensian in all manners going from the best of times to the worst, and all in a 6 minute stretch. I didn’t mind the immediate response for most of those goals, throwing 97 and 29 out to wreak havoc, but by the time the lines went to 90 and 91, the bonehead penalties were cast in stone and that turned the tide. It happens, so here’s hoping it doesn’t happen two games in a row.
I agree with LT on the time Dallas had to shoot, especially on the Heskinen goal. An old slow fart like me could have gotten that shot off. I’d have missed the net by three feet, but I still would have gotten the shot off. Part of my philosophy as a coach I guess. You don’t shoot to score, but hopefully get a deflection or a rebound, so a quick release with a fluttering shot that hits the net is 100 times better than that 100mph slapper that goes off someone’s shinpads.
That 4th goal was keystone cops. I really don’t know where any of the Oilers were on that play, but I counted three Dallas jerseys within 3 feet of the puck and they all had 3 full seconds to gather it and shoot. And once again, an slow old fart like me could have gotten a shot off.
But, as I stated on Twitter, it is a cruel game. Connor Brown hits that top corner, and we’d be talking about the OT winner today instead of what a horrible third period that was.
The Oilers weakness on PK seems to be that they can’t defend the quiet zone (zone from the goal line to the boards) very well on a PK, either through a team rimming it around or having a set up that originates behind the net. Part of the magic of the Sedins is that they would often use that point to start a cycle, but I digress. The Oilers shift well in the slot and covering the points, but they tend to breakdown when the play originates in the quiet zone. Tactically it does stretch out the defenders as a quick pass to the points doesn’t allow your players the time to get to the points.
But, there is game tomorrow, and they just have to stay out of the box. Honestly, it was all going to plan till those penalties, then the penalties took away what was a very well executed game up to that point. I imagine Coach Garlic will concentrate on what went well rather than what didn’t. The six minutes of mayhem will suck the life out of you. The previous 40 should tell you that are capable of great things.
Go Oilers Go!
My two cents LT: You’re either overreacting when you start with the Skinner blame (spare me the “I’m on team Skinner” preface), or you’re baiting the [put current goalie name here] crowd. That loss is not on Skinner. It’s on team discipline. It’s on the PK (which looked good before period three).
And, many of us predicted a loss. You among them, I believe.
Forty minutes of controlling the game, lost to bad penalties and poor PK.
Can’t wait to see what Knoblauch and team bring on Friday.
And of course, Skinner starts. Without a doubt.
So, I find myself on another continent at the moment. Mrs. Buddy and I actually got up at 2:00 am to watch that. Crikey.
On the plus side, Oilers had a loss in each of the last two series horrific enough to have broken a lesser team, and they barely noticed.
But still, good lord, dudes. If your PK is going to be intermittently and irregularly that bad, then maybe don’t put your stick in places where the refs will call a penalty against your particular team every single time?
If Skinner gets lit up again in game 2 it’s to bad Rodrique isn’t really a viable option. He’s going to be 25 this summer how long do you either see if he has it or doesn’t? Bowman needs to take a chainsaw and do basically a complete overhaul this summer. I see Skinner-Delia-Rodrique all replaced
Well, first he has to have it in the AHL and preseason. I am of the mind he does not have it. Certainly not exploring this now.
Well, the Oilers continue their game 1 tradition. After two periods it looked as if they were going to follow the Panther’s lead and continue their dominating play. I was curious and, in the last three years in the playoffs, Panthers are an incredible 18-0 when leading after first period. Oilers are a respectable 16-7.
I thought maybe this team had exorcized some demons in the Vegas series, but alas. That being said, I don’t understand the freakout! I think they will figure it out. Skinner will bounce back. It sucks that this team shoots itself in the foot so often, but that’s what they do.
Obviously, undisciplined penalties against this Dallas team is a not a formula for success. This does give Knoblauch a chance to adjust early in the series. Hopefully he’s cookin up something good!
My take on Skinner is this: When the team plays well enough in front of him, he’s perfectly adequate.
The argument in defending him has always been that he usually made the saves he was supposed to make, and there were always a few where he looked bad on, but were the result of poor coverage, missed assignments, etc. Last night’s game saw a few of those.
What is becoming clear now, is that one of the many moons that needs to align for
thisany team to win the Stanley Cup, is that the goaltender needs to make a few of the saves he has no businees making. The hall of fame is full of goaltenders with rings who were able to do this.Stuart Skinner just has not proven capable of doing this and stealing a game enough times. As a result, I expect we’ll see a different goalie arriving in town before training camp.
Skinner 2W 4L rocking a .872. Pickard and his average netminding definitely wins that game last night. It’s so frustrating to watch Skinner not being able to make a save once you get a couple by him. This series is now going the distance where Florida will be all rested up and will be beat to rat shit because of A.H.L goaltending.
Quite a presumptive comment that the Oilers take this series. I think they are in quite a bit of trouble.
The Oilers bumbling game 1 is a healthy tradition. They have the Stars right where they want them.
Is this presumptive enough for you: Oilers in 5.
If EDM loses the series, I really do think Pickard’s 6-0 at .888 defies the logic of those saying it won’t be on Skinner. They don’t need much back there.
It is going “a” distance. A distance of 5 games. Oil in 5.
Kane/Frederic/Arvidsson
Perry/Janmark/Brown
Scratch Henrique, he’s back to being cooked. If Brown can’t go, dress Savoie for some young whippersnapper enthusiasm.
Frederic looks lost on some shifts
I think sticking him in the middle and forcing him to be more involved rather then playing wing to a center that’s getting caved in would do wonders.
Recipe for beating Dallas:
STOP taking penalties
MAKE A DAMN SAVE
6-3 Total Goals DAL
2-2 5v5 Goals TIE.. Both DAL goals in transition (Seguin breakaway and Steele gets to the middle Seguin great hand eye to finish.
3-1 PP Goals DAL… This is where the game was lost.
1-0 EN Goals DAL
In the 4 losses this playoffs this is how the PK did.
GM1 v LAK 3 for 5 Kills
GM2 v LAK 2 for 5 Kills
GM3 v VGK 2 for 2 on Kill (0.4secs brain fart loss)
GM1 V DAL 1 for 4 on the Kill
8 for 16 for 50% on the PK.
Many are commenting that the Oilers where running roughshod over the Stars 5v5 and it was only the PK that did them in.
I think they were. As mentioned transition goals crushed them. Settled 5v5 EDM was far superior.
5v5 Shots and HDSC favoured the Oilers but on.y 1 each. CF and SCF strongly favoured the Oilers.
I did see the 5th goal as a result of EDM pushing for offence to tie the game up, to be fair.
Score effects. Play opened up/momentum swing when down 4-3. Neither 5v5 goal against was reflective of general play throughout the game
Classic game 1 Oilers, kinda comforting.
I’m not sure they can fix the penalty kill, or they would have already.
It’s sending Henrique to Siberia.
Worst Oiler last night
What a missed opportunity. PK letting down the entire team
That was a 5 Star loss! I’m still trying to figure out if Kane actually deserved a penalty. It’s very difficult to pick on the Rocket Richard winner when he carried the team on his back for most of the year, but man those turnovers need to stop, like schnell! Perhaps the math shows otherwise, but by my eye his turnovers have lead to at least 6 goals this post season, not including the own goal last series.
It was a high stick.
On close examination Kane’s stick touched the Stars players cheek. But OMG what a reaction, here I was looking for blood and expecting a 5-minute major and was shocked when there was nothing of the sort. I don’t think the infraction would have been noticed and of course the refs are going to call it once it was brought to their attention no matter how incidental. Was there embellishment? That’s up to the officials.
Time for Arvi to get back into the line-up.
I thought Stecher didn’t look good and wonder if we see Emberson back.
I thought Henrique looked terrible, perhaps the worst Oiler on the ice.
Ekholm.
He would certainly help.
Coach said he’s not playing game 2.
That would depend on how healthy Ekholm actually will be if he gets back in.
I not so sure about this statement. The PK has not been Stanley Cup worthy all season, except for short stints here-and-there. I hope they fix it, and I hope there are less PK opportunities, but I’m not confident in either.
If the coaching staff can’t MacGyver a solution, and if the players aren’t actively working toward a solution, then this team is screwed. I don’t think this team is screwed.
They should play their big guns on the penalty kill and reduce their powerplay time. I’d probably abandon the triangle and rover PK system, the chase and pray is awful.
The eye test (likely some bias) indicates, to me at least, that we’ve been getting caved on d-zone faceoffs on the PK. Is there way to look up that stat, I’d be interested to see what the PK FO% is this playoff.
I know we scored immediately after a PK in the first with a loaded line but if we have a lead in the third, I agree, we should put Drai and/or McD on the PK. At the very least put Drai out there for d-zone draws, even though he was at 40% last night, whole team was horrible, and gets kicked out often, he’s historically still our best option.
31 wins and 36 losses – nhl site does not calculate percentage but it seemed about middle of the pack.
Ya, I never said the Oilers are screwed, but we cannot deny that the PK has been a concern all season. Have the coaches and players not been working towards a solution until now?
The PK was a concern last year too. But during the playoffs they were the best ever. So, there’s that.
Last year was last year. This year is this year.
I’m still concerned about the powerplay. McDrai can talk all they want about how it’ll be fixed, but so far their only road PP goal was the result of a very fortuitous bounce off a Dallas stick and not adept passing and finding seams like we’re used to seeing.
And you aren’t concerned about the penalty kill??
I am, but it was mentioned plenty in LT’s article.
For me, I don’t think the gap between ceiling and floor was really evident last night. There was no realistic option drop at 5 on 5 – it was 100% Pk.
The Oilers and Stars were 2-2 goals at five-on-five. Shots and HDSC were close. I don’t see a clear edge for Edmonton at five-on-five. I did see many giveaways (NST counted 18) by the Oilers, with just 7 takeaways (again NST).
Fair enough but, to my eye, the Oilers were the clear superior team in the 1st period and dominated the second (at 5 on 5). Game changed on 3 goals against the PK in a 5 minute stretch in the 3rd period.
The Stars were the clear superior team in the 3rd period and that’s all that counts.
There is no realistic option but to play Skinner on Friday night – Pickard isn’t in the trip.
Stu could very well be just fine in game 2.
There are those who have mentioned Olivier Rodrigue as an option. So, that is realistic in this forum, at least. I don’t feel comfortable throwing Rodrigue into the breach, but that doesn’t mean it’s incorrect.
Looking for lightening in a bottle with a rookie goalie would be a sure sign of panic in my opinion. I can’t imagine the coaches would even consider it.
Skinner along with the whole team will need to save face after that totally embarrassing third period. They might need 7 defensemen including Ekholm even if he only sees the ice on the PK.
I don’t consider starting Rodrigue for Friday night a realistic option.
Its funny, but people seem to have a short memory for the ridiculous swings in his play. Skinner could well be what we saw in games 4&5 of last series on Friday.
It is more germane to consider the lineup adjustments and how that could positively impact the play of lines 3 & 4 (Arvidsson in? going 11-7? do you put the Kane-Drai-Brown trio back together?), as well as any tactical tweaks to the PK.
I, for one, am sick of the discussion starting and ending with who is in net.
Stu was fine in game 1 except for one goal against.
First goal was a breakaway from an historically elite scorer. We do not blame the other teams goaltender when Perry scores.
2nd goal was a 4-man screen, three Oilers and one Star.
3rd goal was a great shot, screened and with deception. We do not blame the other teams goaltender when Draisaitl or Ovechkin scores from there.
4th goal, Skinner got lost in the chaos. Bears significant responsibility for this one. By why doesn’t Knoblauch call a timeout when Kane takes the penalty to settle the PK down before they deliver chaos in front of Skinner for a 3rd time in five minutes.
5th goal was a deflection by Seguin (who was behind to the side of Skinner, unmarked) of a shot that was going wide. Horrible and lazy backtrack from Bouchard.
Thanks for the breakdown, Godot. Whenever there is a loss everyone screams “Skinner!” without actually analyzing how he played. It’s just automatically his fault, of course.
Meanwhile Pickard’s most recent 3 games he went .852, .882 and .875 with 10 goals allowed. But because they were all wins he gets a free pass.
In some cases its “whenever there is a GOAL AGINST everyone screams “Skinner”.
Oilersnation is particularly bad – some cited the Seguin breakaway as a save he needed to make
Keep the sticks and hands out of the opposition’s faces and the Oilers have this.
Last night was confirmation of what the first two rounds told us, the Stars cannot beat the Oilers at 5 on 5 – the Oilers are vastly better at evens.
Discipline will lead to victory.
I wonder if we see Stetcher subbed out for Emberson. Curlock mentioned that Dallas was targeting 51 last night and his PK work was poor. Or… could they go 11-7 with both Emberson and Stetcher so that you can roll the lines with the D pairs who work best and fill in the best PKer when needed.
But for goodness sakes, do not take penalties!
I’m not a real numbers guy, and I find “seen him good” tricky since I’m often watching between the fingers of a shielding hand, so take this with a grain of salt, but I am pro Skinner if only for the reason that he’s a solid Mariokart player.
Now this is the kind of hard hitting analysis I come here for!
The early goal at the start of the third was a killer. It drastically changed the momentum and led to the come back. One of the views shows Janmark (and others) completely screening Stu as that wrist shot was taken but Janmark was in perfect position to hold his ground and block it. For some inexplicable reason he gets out of the way at the last second and watches it go by and into the back of the net. If you’re going to stand in Stu’s eyes like that, that shot HAS to be blocked!! With your face if you have to.
There were layers of Oiler players in the shooting lane. But do you think any of them would consider blocking the shot? I was totally amazed the shot even made it to the net. It looked to me like Janmark just got out of the way, when he was in fine position to block the shot, chase down the rebound and head on down the ice on a breakaway unimpeded. But that was last year, I must be having flashbacks.
Hahaha those were the days, when the 5v5 play struggled often but man could they kill. Gave up only 4 and scored 3, for a minus 1 goal diff over 25 playoff games, crazy.
Janmark was a bit deep on that one yesterday to turn and burn after he should have blocked it but a zone clear was likely possible.
After getting out of the first half of that PK at the end of second still up 3-1, I felt confident we’d get the rest of that kill as PPs often struggle to start periods. When they do work though, especially in the third when the PP team is down, buckle up cus the adrenaline sky rockets and is very hard to contain. Smart smart hockey, puck management, and decline is needed for the next 4-5 shifts to thwart that jolt of energy from your opponent. Clearly did not do a good job of that.
But do you think any of them would consider blocking the shot?
Nurse was preoccupied trying to box out Marchment, and Stetcher was shading to his left to block the bumper pass to Seguin who was on the edge of slot. Janmark was dead red in the shooting lane and in perfect position to block it but for whatever reason, whether instinctually or not, got out of the way at the very last second.
I’ll be paying close attention to the commitment of shot blocking in game 2, suspect that will be a big focus of their prep. Get in those lanes boys, it hurts sometimes, but that’s what it takes.
Being committed to shot blocking is a huge part of the PK. It means Skinner doesn’t have to make a big save. They should all be blocking shots as often as humanly possible.
Its tough for me to imagine Janmark not willing to block the shot and I have to presume that he just “made a mistake” or didn’t execute.
There is no real chance that Nurse wouldn’t have been willing to block it given his history.
Complete side bar to events of the night previous, but…
Arvi > Kappi
Most days, most ways.
Thanks for the series winning goal. But Kap’s a tweener and Arv a 20 goal man. I think he’ll find space against DAL.
I feel it is Frederik who needs to come out. The Henrique line and the Janmark line got caved last night. Need puck transporters and Kappi can skate.
Put Kappi on the 3rd or 4th line and Arvi back with Drai
I agree, this series is not overly physical and Frederic hasn’t been getting much ice time. Only concern is if healthy scratched does it impact their ability to sign him in the offseason, even though I’m not sure we can afford him unless we trade Kane. Either way I think Arvi draw back in.
Do we really want to sign Frederic in the off-season? Apart from that one goal against LA, he’s largely been a ghost.
If he would take a $1M deal (a la Connor Brown) I’d do it for sure. If he wants $3M x 4? Not a chance.
Don’t disagree.
The contract that Frederic will likely be looking for (I would guess in the $2.5MM to $3MM range) does not lineup up with his impact as an Oiler.
I know he’s likely still not 100% but, still – I’m not overly concerned about re-signing him.
Kapanen is a defensive mistake waiting to happen away from Draisaitl and Podkolzin.
If he is not with those two, the pressbox is the only place for Kapanen.
I can’t help but feel like Skinner could do well with some room to wheel as well. Both Arvi and Skinner, if I’m not mistaken, have been proven to draw more penalties than they take, which might also be something to consider
pull both Kap n Fred. suit up the fast snipers. hope they can keep up the two way play.
worth a try. this series has a totally different complexion from LAK/VEG.
100% Kapanen needs to come back out of the lineup.
I thank him for his physicality and energy in game 4 and his big goal in game 5 but his play decreased game over game – as it tends to do.
Both Arvidsson and Skinner are better NHL players. Skinner is a better defensive player than Kapanen as well.
It doesn’t work this way as the play on the ice wouldn’t be the same but, while he may not have scored, I doubt Jeff Skinner whiffs on the chance from the slot in the 3rd period like Frederic did…..
My takeaway from last night is the Oilers are the better team. Skinner wasn’t good enough, but the PK lost the game. We don’t need Skinner to be Patrick Roy to win, but we need the PK to be respectable, and it was far from it.
Special teams was the difference. The Dallas PP was 3/4, Edmonton’s was 1/3. Special teams is a huge part of team play. I’m not so sure you can say Oilers were the better team last night.
100% in agreement – the Stars team can’t really compete with this Oilers team at 5 on 5 – and this is a continuation of both teams from the first two rounds.
Discipline from the Oilers will lead to a series win.