The Edmonton Oilers are up 2-1 in the WC Final after a spirited afternoon affair yesterday at Rogers Place. Unlike Game 2, the home team did not deliver a complete game. The second period was a flood of shots and chances at the Edmonton net.
It might be the biggest blessing of this spring. Stuart Skinner was exceptional in that period, making saves and showing the same kind of calm we saw one year ago against these same Dallas Stars. If the big man can get into a zone, and my goodness the shutouts might be a tell, this train is going to rumble.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins played a terrific game, showing his elite utility and making quality plays with the puck. Evander Kane had a strong evening and is enjoying a healthy and productive spring with the team. NO idea how you move him off the roster this summer. I think he’ll be here in the fall.
Connor McDavid scored twice, on two shots. Maybe goalies are shocked when he shoots! Zach Hyman scored twice, the man is shot out of a cannon every damn game this spring. What a player. Evan Bouchard is either magic or money, take your pick. He must be signed. Add John Klingberg to the must sign list, and someone needs to make sure Troy Stecher stays in one piece but I’d sign that guy to an extension (he is signed for next year) any day of the week. What a team!
THE NUMBERS
The Kane-Henrique-Brown line struggled, and with Connor Brown possibly out that trio may get a facelift. Henrique looks slow in this group of forwards, but the Oilers need him to be effective. I’m not certain it’s a good idea to move Nuge off the top line, so might consider fading the Henrique line and running the Janmark trio more. The Oilers need to include Kane in whatever third line is constructed, Brown too if he’s healthy. Can they bring Rem Murray back from Europe again?
I have to tell you this team looks like a Stanley Cup finalist. Gird your loins! You know, because 2006 and 2024, that making the Final and losing is the worst damn thing on planet earth. It’s the worst, just ahead of the ice cream falling off the cone and a few other things I can’t say here. It’s bad, just really bad, to lose in the final game of the Final. That said, you need to start preparation for another possible heartbreak in the Final. Edmonton is not there yet, have no doubt. However, the Oilers have the look. They just do. Nothing matters like the Oilers.
A busy Lowdown, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 radio. Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and host of Puck Social, will join us at 12:40. Jason Gregor pops by at 1:20 and we’ll have plenty of your input via the text line.
New for The Athletic: Edmonton Oilers pushing for Stanley Cup shows off the soul of a city
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6381542/2025/05/26/edmonton-oilers-nhl-playoffs-2025-soul/
LT, based on the endless wonderings & worryings about goaltending (elsewhere, but here too), I wrote a short piece on the fetish of the goalies. May I share that here?
Of course!
Thank you.
https://medium.com/@rev.hanspetermeyer/what-if-we-didnt-make-a-fetish-of-the-goaltender-928a770b99fa
Brilliant article as always.
When I was in grade school, our bus would always pass by the Purple Onion and we’d all giggle because we were told it was a gay bar and we were a bunch of stupid kids. Funny how you remember these things. Never knew they had such a good music scene
Really interested to see how KK manages lines tomorrow. I think he will wait to see if Hintz is in, and if so, may run top lines as per games 1- 3 (2nd period). I have belief he will make the right decisions. Brown is a tough loss but our depth should push through
So is Reinhardt, Mikkola, and Greer actually hurt more than they let on, or did they sit them because they got cocky and thought they could win without them to get more rest for them. And now do they have to play them sooner than they are ready and risk further injury?
Pass the Dutchie ‘pon the left hand side
I’m fairly confident they are hurt.
Sam R. missed game 3 as well and the Mikkola play looked like he could be really hurt.
Panthers know they, if they had won tonight, they likely have around a week off (potentially even more) – I doubt they are “resting” players.
I just wonder cuz there was rumblings mikkola was ready for tonight’s game. And that did look serious.
and I’m wondering if Sam was playing hurt cuz that kind of looked like a nothing play, and certainly not something that would put a guy out for days.
Game 5 it is…
Mark Jankowski has passed Nail Yakupov in games played and goals, it took 12 years, not ten #jayfeaster
Glad the Stars ditched Stankoven – that boy can snipe!
It’s so wild that Skinner and Arvi have been scratched all series.
Taking the lead early in the series is definitely a benefit for managing Ekholm’s injury.
I would not put Ekholm in until the D group has a very rough game. What’s the rush?
For me, it would be getting him up to speed before the Finals. That might be more forward looking than the actual team should be, but they are going to need Ekky for the wagon that is Florida right now.
It really is tough to find the proper deployment solution given I am loathe to mess up rhythm by going 11/7 but lets not forget, Ekholm is their second best d-man (playoff Bouchard is the best d-man in the league) and getting him up to speed makes this team better – if he’s healthy and ready.
It is hard to imagine a healthy Ekholm won’t immediately help this team. I put him in at 12-6 as soon as he’s ready. Ready would include confidence by the coaching and medical staff that he can play 15 solid minutes, at least.
The rest of the D are playing well, but he should be able to AT LEAST match the relative contribution of Stetcher. I like what Stetcher has done, but he isn’t lighting the world on fire.
Too many Carolina players are just wilting and tucking their tail after whistles. They’re being bullied and no response whatsoever. All flight no fight.
They built a team for regular season and a round or two just like the Jets they are a hard working 4 line team without any real sandpaper. It’s obvious their G.M’s play it safe and the fan base is happy with that result.
I wonder how much of that falls on Brind’Amour
Canes, Leafs etc do not have players to rise to the way the NHL calls the playoffs.
Would be nice if hurricanes showed up to this series
Hey Lowetide!
I know that you just had your Top Prospects article out. And hopefully we do sign the right prospects at the right time.
I couldn’t find any other sources to the rumours that Maxim signed in the KHL already, but what would that change for Edmonton’s plans?
I know we get bummed for seeming to not have as much luck with prospects and contracts as other teams have. So hopefully these all work out in the right ways.
I’ve seen items that include he has signed and that the Oilers are in pursuit. With Russian players, best to wait and see because there’s plenty of misinformation out there. I did write in the comments section about the rumoured KHL signing, but left it out of the article for just this reason. It’s always a negotiation and sometimes the first reports are incorrect.
Excellent. Thank you for your time, as always! All we can do as fans is hope and wait.
What would you think of Bowman giving some thought to Frederik Dichow in net? Even if it only came to bolstering Bakersfield? Maybe there’s potential there and it just didn’t work out with Montréal for whatever reason.
I’m wondering if anyone watching the London Knights at the Memorial Cup has any intel on goaltender Austin Elliot.
He’s an undrafted over age player whose stats are just stupid.
After being acquired in a trade from Saskatoon, his record in London is 48W 2L in regular season and playoffs with a save percentage of more than .920
I imagine his size at 6’1” 180 has been an issue at the draft but it seems like an obvious under the radar opportunity for a team.
I’m guessing it’s indeed his size (and thinness) that’s kept him from getting drafted.
He had good numbers with the Blades before this season too. He was actually put on CHL waivers by the Blades at the start of the season, picked up by Barrie who immediately dealt him to London.
Unless he signs a pro deal, he will be a teammate of Wakely’s at UMass-Lowell next season.
Thanks.
Spec with the quote:
What a beauty this guy is.
Wooley (on with Gregor) talking about how great the Oilers are doing at not giving up rush chances (which Dallas is typically elite at creating and finishing) and, moreso, east-west chances off the rush!
What a change from later in the season when they were being burned repeatedly on them
There has been lots of talk about the PK and the formation they play in. They use the T formation or triangle and 1 (I don’t know the technical name for it) after zone entries as the PP sets up as well as when the puck is at the point. They rotate out of that position into a box formation when the puck gets stationary on the half wall and then more diamon like when the puck gets down to the corner. They aren’t playing a single stationary structure ever. They are rotating to make sure they have pressure on the puck and the two adjacent players are ready to jump “be the go guy” for the next pass while also creating a structure to prevent seam passes. And the seam pass is the one that has killed them all playoffs. As they’ve gone on so far in this playoffs they have gotten better, apart from G1 3rd perioud against DAL.
Much discussion about 12-6 v 11-7 today. Same kind of discussion happens during the regular season regarding the lines. Coach KK has shown he has a deep understanding of his lineup and how to maximize it. He mixed the lines up throughout the season so that at any given moment when a specific situation shows up he can send over a line and D pairing that has played together and knows what is expected of them. If going 11-7 allows them to ease Ekholm into the lineup and get him up to game speed then in KK I trust.
I fear taking the current pairings out of rhythm. We know that d-men, to a man, hate 11/7.
I don’t even know what they’d do with 6D including Ek though – I mean neither Nurse nor Ekholm have played the right side at all as Oilers and is there any appetite to break up Kulak/Bouchard or Walman/Klingberg?
That is the big concern the current pairings are playing great. As per your quote above from Stetcher the team knows how good Ekholm is and would probably love to see him the lineup. It is going to be a challenge for KK to find a way to integrate him back into the lineup without messing with the mojo.
I agree but, if Ekholm is ready, they do need to find a way – I have concern though.
As you’ve said, if Ekholm isn’t ready, don’t bring him back. If he is ready, why not run him with Bouchard and run Nurse-Kulak?
Kulak/Bouchard are 5-0 goals in the series……. 62% expected goals.
Nurse/Kulak are 0-5 goals in the playoffs…… 45% expected goals.
Sure, if we’re relying on this sample size then you’re not putting Ekholm back in at all, though. Doesn’t everyone not named Nurse play well with Bouchard?
Ek-Bouch is the pair you want, no?
I don’t know if it is the pair I want with how well Kulak/Bouchard is playing.
I know Arvy is a superior replacement, but it’s intriguing to wonder what Stetcher could do inserted on the bottom 6 forwards for Brown
I will never understand why people suggest career defensemen be moved to forward. Especially over proven quality forwards.
I clearly said I know Arvy is the better option. I posited that it’s interesting to wondow how stetcher would do in a forward role. Apparently people aren’t a fan of wondering.
It’s better to go 11-7
“Elite utility.”
I like it.
(Always knew Nuge was elite!)
Seeing the way Hyman is playing, I keep going back to his speech after the the game 7 final loss. This guy is going to do whatever it takes to win this year.
The way he reacted to seeing 97 crying, he just said “fuck” and you could tell it hit him at his core. He’s a huge catalyst to what we are witnessing this year.
Has anyone won the conn smythe getting 15-20 points and 150+ hits. Cuz if anyone could it would be Zach!
All this time Leafs fans were fixated on getting McDavid while they let an incredible playoff performer slip away
If you have any Leafs fans for relatives, here’s a beauty for you…
I think I read a stat somewhere today that Zach now has more playoff goals than Matthews + Marner + Tavares….combined. Muwahahahaha!!
Best FA the Oilers may have ever signed.
Picking the best moment of Stop Making Sense is like picking the best Oilers moment this spring, but can we all agree Life During Wartime merits special consideration?
“We make a pretty good team…”
Keep playing 12-6.
Ekholm ready if someone’s injured otherwise wait his turn like Arvidsson did
i wouldn’t go 11-7
Really tough to get Ekholm up and running at this stage in the playoffs after missing so much time. If injuries or poor play force your hand so be it, but the pairings have some great chemistry right now.
Kane had no issues with much more to overcome.
Umm, Game 2 of the first round is a bit earlier than game 4 or 5 of conference finals
And I’m guessing he was healthy for a few weeks before then too
Replace Colonel Kling in game 1 against the Panthers unless a injury arises.
Not sure if that’s the play? Florida has the best forecheck in NHL history by a huge margin, we would need his outlet passes to escape the zone.
I’m also getting way ahead of myself. Dallas still has a > 45% chance to win this series IMO.
No you don’t touch that Walman Klingberg pairing
What a fascinating decision the coaching staff has to make regarding Ekholm, and I am really curious to see what they choose.
On the surface, there isn’t a defenceman that should come out of the lineup, not even Stetcher who has really stepped up after Game 1. That would lean towards 11-7, which would also get you some insurance in case Ekholm starts but can’t finish; however, do you really want to mess with the ability to roll 4 lines like they have been? Mind you, we looked pretty great in the third with only 11 forwards.
An overthinker’s paradise.
Really tough call to make, and I don’t envy Knoblauch having to make this decision.
My guess is 11-7 tomorrow. Take advantage of having last change to protect Ekholm, while trying out the various duos to see what clicks.
11/7 “quite a possibility” when Ek is back. Would also consider going 12/6.
Per coach.
I hope he goes 12/6, playing 11 forwards with Henrique being unplayable is going to ensure they’re a 3 line team for the game.
Rico has 3 goals at 5 on 5 and a 62% goal share in the playoffs.
I think its an aggressive use of the word “unplayable”.
Janmark has 2 goals and a 55% goal share.
The Woody Cult still pining for 11-7 which does not work as a strategy. There’s a reason Bowman went deep on forwards. We have 4 forwards Viktor-Skinner-Savoie-Phillip all chomping at the bit. Why would you burnout Connor-Leon as well as alienating your co-workers in only game 4 of the Conference Final?
Imagine mentioning Savoie and Philp like they are actually realistic options to go in….
3 more players will have to get hurt before they are even remotely considered.
Injuries can come in bunches we almost lost Brown-Nuge-Frederic yesterday afternoon if you managed to watch the game.
I think that’s why he listed them in order in the way he did. Are we not all fans of the same team? Can we not have a discussion without trying to belittle or one up the other?
Somebody want to check on Reja?
Brown officially out for tomorrow.
Pickard may be able to back-up.
I think they can drag them back to Carolina……. that would be nice.
Gene Principe tweeted brown out for tomorrow
If a Brown Cow we cannot have, then we shall have an Arvi Wallbanger.
Eat your heart out, Gene. There is another pun-master on the block!
@TonyBrarOTV
Calvin Pickard is back skating with the team this morning.
Video here:
https://x.com/TonyBrarOTV/status/1927046193177084192
Oiler fan!
Was at the game. Quite a nailbiter for a 6-1 game. McDavid’s goal at the end of the second lowered the blood pressure of the entire arena.
Would love a formal explanation from the NHL as to why the high stick on Kapanen was upheld when the entire fanbase was groaning when the replay clearly showed it was Rantanen’s(?) own stick.
Absolute bush league reffing as always.
They talked about it on the broadcast. A major or double minor would be reviewable, but a minor isn’t. Apparently at summer meetings a lot of GMs were in favour of this exact play being reviewable on a minor, but it didn’t make it into the rule changes.
Ek did media again today – says he doesn’t know if he’s in tomorrow or the next game or sometime after but he feels really close.
I’m super concerned about Ekholm. A serious groin injury( if that’s what it is) at 35 is scary. Groins are a weird thing. And get worse the older you are. I tore my groin at 12 and I still feel it to this day 30+ yrs later
Ekholm has a multi million dollar medical staff and organization working on his groin. He’ll probably come out better then the average Joe and a medi center.
I want him to be 100% before he comes in. Our D is playing just fine right now. Have to think about his future in the SCF and in the rest of his career.
Groin and/or core issues are real bad problems. (Back issues too.)
Was Petrovic’s head shot on Brown legal, thought there would be more discussion about it. Seemed like it was suspension worthy.
The hockey analyst only seem to discuss it if its Nurse-Kane dole it out. The hit was a bit late and way worse then the little Tap Hintz recieved. No discussion on the dirty play on Frederic if that was Perry it’s the end of the world. We get away with 1 delay of game call and DeBoer is whining like a baby. What about the photom call on Kappy?
I’m surprised there hasn’t been any word of a hearing with DOPS. That’s about a clear as day headshot as you’ll ever see.
We are intentionally ignoring it in fear that Petrovic may get suspended. We need him on the ice.
Petrovic is actually 1-1 goals (and has a 75% corsi and 77% expected goal share) in series….
Another example of very poor refereeing and the oxymoron that is “player safety”
My hot take is that if Panthers win in 4 tonight, we would benefit from winning in 6 or even 7.
First two rounds were 6 and 5 games plus we got an extended break after Round 2. I don’t think fatigue is as much a factor as being in sync. Add in the Ekholm aspect of the equation, and I don’t see this team running on fumes if they hit the finals, whatever happens from here on out. And giving Florida too much time off may be a bit of a wrench in a team that has been humming at high intensity (straight out of a 7 game series).
Finish them in 5 if you can but I don’t think a longer series is a problem given what came before, so long as we get through without key injuries.
I can see this view a bit. A key would be the health of Reinhart. Does a week and a half of give him time to get back in for G1? Would finishing Dallas quick give the Oilers a game or 2 without him in their line up?
— at the extreme: if FLA won tonight and this series went 7 they would have 10-12 nights off to bake in Southerm Florida.
— That’s virtually a scheduled loss for them after so much time between games IMO.
I can see why we’re being so disciplined our PK is not good they can continue to give up such ghastly opportunities because of their defensive strategy. We need to adapt from the diamond back to more of a box.
It is not a diamond, it is a triangle and 1
Both Nuge and Frederic on the ice so they are both just fine.
No Brown, of course.
Bouch, Walman and S. Skinner not on the ice today – just rest (per Gregor).
Do we think it’s actually just rest, or are they maintenance days (Bouch + Walman)?
Maintenence day rests.
Might be time to give Brown a rest and put Arvidsson in.
Pickard is on the ice with the team this morning. Excellent to see.
Pickard will be called upon to bring more La Bamba’s this spring, I’m certain of it.
Perhaps but I’m not positive – only 6 wins left to go.
I know, I know, we are winning… but start time aside, there is room for improvement. Let Henrique and Kapanen sit for a game, move Nuge to fix line 3, and fill in the top spots with the hungry scratches. Would be fun to see Skinner and Arvidsson get a chance in this series – think they will be more effective vs Dallas than vs Florida.
53-97-18
92-29-33
91-93-28
21-13-90
I was thinking the same thing. I don’t expect Brown to be available though.
I would leave Kasperi on the 2nd line and try Arvidsson with Nuge and Kane. That would be an intriguing new trio.
Kapanen is doing a great job of driving Mikko crazy, leave him in.
Henrique is imo unplayable currently, put Frederic up the middle and get him more involved.
Kane/Frederic/Arvidsson
Skinner/Janmark/Perry
I’m not sure this is totally accurate.
There are six other forwards on the Oilers that have played more against Rantanen than Kap and Rantanen is 9-0 shots when on the ice against Kap (9-1 Pods and 10-3 Drai).
I would not be moving Frederic to center.
That big yard ape Bichsel took out Nuge-Frederic and put the hurt on a few other Oilers. I would be wary when this monster is on the ice.
He had also pushed Frederic into the Stars goal post that went uncalled. Frederic crashed pretty hard into it.
*Frederic
12-7 total goals EDM
9-3 5v5 goals EDM
1-0 EN goals DAL
3-3 PP goals TIE
11-8 PP opportunities EDM
DAL scored there first settled offensive zone time goal yesterday. EDM scored 4 of 5 5v5 goals off the rush yesterday. I should have organized these subcategories from the start.
Is brown definitely ruled out I’m guessing it was concussion protocol. If he wakes up fine today is there still a possibility he can play tomorrow?
It did not look at all good. I don’t think it was just protocol. He went immediately down the tunnel. But you never know. I thought Nurse was going to be out a very long time after his concussion this year, and I think he missed 4 or 5 games. You never know.
It wasn’t just protocol as we would have been back to start the 3rd period.
He didn’t skate today and I’m still waiting for the coach’s media to hit but I presume its a “day to day” although I think its likely doubtful he plays.
I find it funny that the other team’s coaches, DeBoer and Cassidy, have both complained about missed calls, and/or dangerous plays, as if their team never benefits from these situations or has any dirty plays themselves. Knoblauch never seems to complain about this, but has a legitimate gripe after many games.
Last night’s game the extra large d pairing of Dallas was looking for blood- clear headshot on Brown, and late to boot. Also a very dangerous play on Nuge- another case of interference and/or tripping. Both resulting in various degrees of injury to Oilers players.
I hope Dallas doesn’t continue to goon up.. Kane seems to be staying out of trouble but maybe we need him to be a little more scary.. this Oilers team is definitely intent on being disciplined, given their porous pk, which is probably smart but we are going to need to get the pp going and also be able to stand up to dirty play if we have any hope of winning the last 6 games needed for the cup.
Agreed about Henrique- he is the one worry for me on this roster at the moment. As well as the Connor Brown injury.
Sometimes it unfortunately works. If you remember the infamous Anaheim series, it was the same thing. Anaheim kept getting away with random stuff that baffled the mind, and yet their coach kept complaining that Edmonton was favoured by the Refs and League.
The infamous “Whining” and “White Glove Treatment” comments by Randy Carlyle. I am still irked by that series and think it was another year where Edmonton could have gone all the way if they got past that series.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ducks-coach-randy-carlyle-questions-mcdavids-white-glove-treatment/
Imagine an Edmonton – Pittsburgh Finals?!
I maintain that we won FIVE games in that series against Anaheim and still didn’t come out of the series.
Still more galling to me than the loss to Chicago in the play-in.
I saw an interview of Knoblach on TSN about the DeBoer complaints. I thought his response was classic. I’ll see if I can find a link
Here it is: https://www.tsn.ca/video/knoblauch-refutes-deboer-s-question-that-suggests-mcdavid-might-get-special-treatment~3139057
Yes I saw that too. When talking about whether McDavid gets preferential treatment.. was a great response. Knoblauch is not a great, measured speaker but he is honest and doesn’t seem to play games. I’d imagine that garners some respect from referees, but I wonder how much influence the master manipulators like slimy Paul Maurice has. I cannot stand that guy!
Maybe we should run
Hyman Nuge Kane as our number 1 line and then
Mcdavid
Drai
Henrique as centers
NHL Network is showing game 4 of the 88 Finals. Wayne’s final game as an Oiler.
Listening to Paul Loreau sing O Canada, and Bob Cole play by play reverberate through Northlands is bringing back a lot of memories
They shouldn’t be. McDavid has 53 shots on goal, the most of any player in the league.
His low shooting percentage (9.4%) won’t last though – goalies beware!
His shooting % went up nearly 3% just last night alone lol
What I’m really disappointed about is that we didn’t get a “Lay It on the Line” commercial this round with just Oiler clips.
OMG Triumph is on my workout mix and lately I have had to fast forward and skip as I can’t take it anymore. When this is all over, and McDavid hoists the cup, I will return to regular scheduled programming.
I watched the clip of DeBoer complaining about the missed call and blaming it for the 2-0 lead. How about not giving up a 3 on 1 to the best forwards in the playoffs?
I actually think that losing Hintz for the game was a good thing for the Stars, in that it forced Pete to run a bit of a line blender and their forwards were making simple plays, forechecking stronger in the 2nd than they had in probably several games. It also elevated Robertson and Duchene’s play, despite the fact that the latter remains snake bitten.
At the moment I don’t see why you keep Kapanen on the second line. The Stars don’t have a mega line to contain (even with Hintz back), and those 3rd period top 2 lines might stick for next game, which would leave Podkolzin and Kapanen out of the top 6. I would personally like to see Janmark center those 2, leaving Brown with Henrique and either Kapanen or Skinner. I know, this seems drastic for a winning tram and I doubt Knoblauch would take Frederic out, but he might not need to if Brown is out.
I was unable to watch. But that 3 on 1. There was a replay that showed an oiler d-man on the ice, with a stick through his skate, and a Dallas guy trying, with great difficulty to remove it. I did not notice any hand up from the referee, but I mean, that looked like it must have been some sort of obvious trip, that was about to go uncalled no? Can we call that even for the missed Kulak call? (Feel free to give context, in case I missed it)
Missed Call on Edmonton: Oilers Score
Missed Call on Dallas: Oilers Score
To keep on ranting: butterfly effect and all, a penalty on Kulak means no goal on the other end. BUT, one did NOT cause the other. That goal was not due to a missed penalty. What if the goal came 2 minutes and 3 seconds after the missed call. Does Dallas still complain about the missed call causing a goal? Stuff it Doboer.
The Dallas player should have just dropped his stick and skated back to his bench to get another one, let the Oiler deal with removing it.
Noticed that DeBoer did not complain about the Dallas PP when Rantanen crosschecked himself in the face. He had a little help, but it was not a penalty – the refs evened it up for the blown call so all good, all even and Dallas down 2. Suck it DeBoer!
It was indirect cross checking though.
My brother used to grab my hand and punch me in the face, “why are you punching yourself in the face? Stop doing that!”
Brother on brother violence is not a crime either – well it wasn’t to ref in our house (mom). Both went to box.
They knew it as well after they heard the no touch on the Kulak flip. This kinda makes up for the game 1 bogus call on kulak at the end of the 2nd without that made up call we game 1
Don’t look now but our very own Baby Nuge is leading the Conference Finals in
Points (7)
5v5 points (5)
5v5 goal differential (6-0)
Plus/Minus (+6)
PP goals (2)
What a beauty!
I think Hrudey was misunderstood, he must have meant RNH will never be a 50 point player (in a post season).
Obviously brown getting hurt changes things but what about flipping Janmark for Henrique
3rd line would have speed and 4th line would be too slow?
maybe insert ardvidson and give Perry a night off
Perry should be assigned to ‘deal’ with Lian Bichsel asap. NHL is not going to – so other players have to.
The way the Oilers have been playing the last month provides a tremendous amount of confidence for their fans. I was never truly worried about them yesterday, even during the second period push by the Stars. The defensive commitment allows the Oilers to counterpunch so effectively, with such a variety of weapons, they really are overpowering the Stars at all levels.
They could actually let Ekholm rest another game and bring another player in to fill Brown’s spot. Give Arvidsson another go, or let J Skinner have another lash at the playoffs.
I’d love to see Skinner in this series. Even if just for a game or two.
Solid win yesterday after a very stressful 2nd period. The Stars are good enough to have stretches of control, but it can’t be for nearly an entire period. Goodness. Was great to see the Oilers come out in the 3rd more focused and determined.
There’s still some concern thought, right? Henrique looks 3 steps behind and loses nearly every battle. The Oilers don’t really have an option other than moving RNH there, or double shifting one of McDrai. My eyes tell me Klingberg is starting to struggle. I saw more than a few poor decisions and lost battles in his own end. Heck of a shot on his goal though!
And what’s with the xGF for the Drai centred line? They were below 50% last game too.
It seems to me that Knoblauch is the best coach the Oilers have had in some time in terms of counter-punching. While previous coaches would come out with a strategy that would be proved ineffective, or a matchup that didn’t work (The Eichel matchup in 22/23), Knoblauch and the team as a result (or vice versa?), seem to be able to rally from whatever the other team throws at them. Whether it’s in-game or in series adjustments, you rarely see the Oilers unable to come back at the other team with an improved strategy after something has shown itself not to work.
Regarding Bouchard, these playoffs have shown me he’s worth the contract he’s about to get. I was a bit on the fence in terms of handing over $10+/season, but with where his game is at right now, getting him to sign an 8/$80 deal could be considered a bargain.
— Those counter punches were crippling. Oil were full price for their rushes for goals when it mattered.
— Will be interesting to see next game. Oil have to the whole “don’t let team get between the dots in offence collapse 3 to around the net defence”
— Then they had the killer sneak attack strikes.
— Can’t let this series go 6 or 7 if Florida wins tonight IMO…
And knobby is a rookie coach and it seems like he is getting better as time goes on.
When Knoblauch makes these wonderfully astute adjustments I can’t help thinking MacT would’ve had similar tactics if he had the same horses to execute.
How do the analytics show the Oilers only had ~ 2.4 xGF yesterday? You have a Mc 3 on 1, a Hyman breakaway, a Hyman tap in, and a McShot from the circles. Surely those add up to more than 2.4?
Expected goals are calculated by simply using the percentages of goals that go in. So a breakaway doesn’t have an expected goal value of 1 because not all breakaways result in goals. If 75% of breakaways are scored on, than the expected goal value would be 0.75. I think a lot of us overrate the percentage of scoring chances that get converted into goals.
Add in that the data used for these calcs are largely based on shot location with some minor adjustment for zone entry time and rebounds. There is zero input based on pre shot passing, odd man rushes, the quality of the shooter, deflections or screens etc. For example McDavid’s first goal was probably not from a high danger spot, but it was a 3-1 that based on execution was an almost certain goal with an much higher chance of success than their models would give credit for.
Their models would give Janmark getting a pass from Frederic the same chance of scoring as McDavid from Nuge in that situation.
Well that really paints the picture on xGF doesn’t it!
On an unrelated note Rafa, that was a classy and touching tribute to your namesake yesterday.
Was it ever! Really gonna miss watching the Big 4.
I was surprised to hear DeBoer say he was happy that his team didn’t “mail it in” with their number one center not playing. Don’t know if he’s still looking for calls from the officials or what.
Just backing his team because in fact they did mail-it-in when down by 2 to start the 3rd.
Ya, he sounds like he has no faith in his team. Not sure his comments to the media are purposefully messaged for his team. I think he’s just saying what he feels. And I think he sees the curtains closing.
I suspect he knows their best (only?) chance to get back in the series is getting PP’s and making hay therein.
If the Oilers can avoid a G1-esque parade to the box, this series ends Thursday.
I think DeBoer is more frustrated with his team than he is letting on. They certainly don’t look like the team which romped through the regular season and the first 2 rounds. I will grant that Edmonton has played well, and is executing a good system, but Dallas has been poor in at least 2 periods of each game.
I’m not sure they romped through the second round though – there were lots of stretches and games where it looked like the Jets were the better team and the difference with Jake O. outplaying Connor H.
Fair. I was not as in tune with that series, but the bit I watched they looked pretty dangerous. I haven’t had huge levels of concern past period 3 of game 1.
Kurt Leavis previous advised that the current Ekholm injury is NOT the same as the one he came back from and he doubled down on they last night and is adamant his source is good.
Odd because he had minimal contact that game before leaving again. Players who have been out and recovering from injuries are definitely more prone to other injuries, but still would be bizarre
I believe he either stepped on a puck or had a skate blade issue causing him to stumble very oddly which could damage tissue different than whatever he had previously recovered from.