Knoblauch’s Deployment

by Lowetide

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dangilitis

Watched the Oil Drop episode Califournia yesterday with my son.

2 minutes in and Coffey answers the question we all knew the answer to.
Yes, LA was an easy team to dislike, and yes Danault’s comment about the B team got their “dander up.” He couldn’t even recall which scrub said it.

Highly recommended watch.
Nice to hear some commentary from Walman. Lots of supportive chat from all the veterans even while facing adversity.
Brown is a pretty good trash talker. Pretty sure he makes fun of Danault’s mustache after an empty net goal. I also appreciated his line to Doughty: “you’re a lot of things, but smart isn’t one of them” 🙂

OriginalPouzar

All of the Oilers + content is excellent – in my opinion.

Rafa Nadal

Knobs and Brownie both sick with something. Hopefully it’s not going around the room. This is such bad timing 🙁

dangilitis

Definitely. Hope he’s ready to cough on Chucky for game 1

Admiral Ackbar

Dallas > TB
Knights ~ Carolina
Kings ~ Leafs

Before the Oilers stuffed them in a locker, Dallas was the talk of the league.

Knights have a core that already won it all but banged up. Carolina is good but has demonstrated that they can’t get it done in the semis.

The Kings and Leafs eventually beat themselves if their opponent do it first.

I think the good guys have had the more difficult road. And this is the healthiest Leon has been this late in the playoffs.

BELIEVE

Rafa Nadal

I think Vegas is materially better than Carolina. Eichel is elite and their defense is more than just Slavin + 5 randoms.

Traveller

I don’t quibble with the other 4 randoms, but I don’t think Brent Burns deserves that designation. He is no longer the Brent Burns who won the Norris in 2017, but is still only 2 seasons removed from 10th in Norris voting and even now at 40 he played 82 game at 21 minutes per night and 23 minutes a night for the playoffs only behind Slavin. He’d be the 3rd or 4th best D man on Vegas behind Theodore, Pietrangelo and probably Hanifin at this stage. Theodore would move to his natural left side with Hanifin with Pietrangelo and Burns being the 2 righties. McNabb would get bumped down.

leadfarmer

Father Time caught up with Burns this season and was apparent in the playoffs. He should have played less but Carolina was breaking in two rookies in the playoffs

Traveller

They weren’t breaking the rookies in, they were forced to play them because first Chatfield late in the Washington series and then Walker early in the Florida series got injured. Before they got injured, Burns was still playing over 22 minutes per night second only to Slavin.

And Burns had the lowest GA/60 on the team. And had the best results penalty killing on their D. The offense just isn’t what it once was but he can still defend. Orlov was the weak link on defense in the series against Florida being on for 12 goals against and only 4 for in all situations. He and Walker didn’t do well before Walker got injured and then Orlov with the rookie got caved. Burns was even at 3 GF/ 3 GA. While Burns didn’t have great series, him playing 22 a night is not the reason they lost.

Scungilli Slushy

We like the Corgis around here for sure. But it is true that the numbers without a broader grasp of hockey aren’t enough. Tulsky has been with the Canes in a prominent role since 2017. Dellow has been in management for a few years, now with the Canes. For these two it’s not clear what challenges the cheap and activist owner provides for them, but the lack of ultimate success that team has had while being at the top of the reg season for years isn’t impressive

And then there’s Dubas. For me I have been impressed with Bowman so far who seems to have a better overall handle on it, from eyes to numbers

Funny Bissonness

I think the weird amount of time off before the SCF and in between the games really benefitted the Panthers last year. It’s different than any other series and it’s enough time off that it could really throw off your rhythm. The Panthers had been there recently and knew what that was like. The Oilers did not. This year I think the Oilers will be more prepared for the SCF schedule.

This is a random theory based only on gut feel and looking at a calendar, as opposed to anything scientific or mathematic. But I think it may have some merit.

kinger_OIL

— up to 4 games at home is the difference maker.

— I was at game 7 last year : the ice was an abomination and the Panthers executed a perfect strategy which was smothering whichever oiler was trying to control the puck.

— It was very difficult for the oilers to impose their game plan because that involves puck control possession and movement. Florida is built different.

— 4 games where the oil can control passes and the puck (not to mention the math that favours the home team) when the oilers clearly are the more skilled offensive team is their advantage with more games on their ice.

— I’m not saying the Oilers will win and nothing is guaranteed: but certainly they are the favourites IMO.

Last edited 1 day ago by kinger_OIL
Harpers Hair

The “difference maker” is most likely to be the Panthers third line.

They’re lethal.

Traveller

Not against Carolina they weren’t – 5 points total for the 3 of them in 5 games against the Panthers.

Harpers Hair

17 GP

Marchand 14P +11
Luostairenen 13P +11
Lundell 12P +12.

Dominant.

Traveller

Ignoring my point that Carolina was able to slow them considerably just make you obtuse. No explanation for that?

OriginalPouzar

Perhaps the difference maker will be that the Oilers have the best forward, the second best forward and the best d-man – the forwards healthier than last year (in particular Draisaitl).

OriginalPouzar

Frederic confirms he was at McDavid’s house earlier today – hitting the sauna.

Not sure why that’s important, but, well, the info is out there now.

Admiral Ackbar

The sacred waters of the McJesus spa will force-heal Freddy’s ankle.

Reja

This is a clue Frederic is bonding and going to resign at a fair deal for both sides.

OriginalPouzar

Corey Perry says he has never thought about retiring – certainly planning on playing next season.

leadfarmer

Good. We could definitely use him

OriginalPouzar

If we can afford him – given he worked for a contract at $375M over league min plus $250M in performance bonuses for this season, I think he’ll be looking in the $2MM plus range for next year given 19G plus the playoffs he’s having….

Traveller

Mercenary for hire! Win or lose this year, does he look for another contender who lacks what he brings to help get them closer to the top. Born in Ontario, but grew up a Habs fan (ie. been there, done that). Does Treliving think Perry’s unique style and good luck charm status help solve their DNA issue? How about Carolina? Any chance Tulsky and Dellow can figure out how to model what Perry’s contributions would bring to a team?

Or maybe winning it once here if they do (unlike all his other prior attempts) will be enough incentive that he would take the $1.125 million number or even a little less thinking this team might have the best shot next year and the money becomes less important.

Moonlight

Brown a game time decision. I wonder if the illness is a result of the concussion? Why does it always have to be hard.

31saves

If it wasn’t hard, would it even be worth it?

Reja

Up until Bowman took over I thought we had a 2-3 year window with no young kids and draft capital. I didn’t think anyone could accumulate a group of young darts the way Bowman has without trading one of the big three. Savoie-Jarvantie-Hutson-Samanaki-O’Reilly-Nicholl-Clattenburg. After we sign Bouchard-Connor our window will increase to ten years. There will be little kids growing up to adulthood and having their own kids knowing nothing but the Oilers franchise being the greatest ever.

Last edited 1 day ago by Reja
Traveller

I know you have your conspiracy theory that Stan Bowman was calling the shots for the Oilers before he even met with Bettman to get reinstated, but I am virtually certain that was not the case. If it were the case and ever got disclosed, the sanctions and media publicity backlash would be enormous and not worth the trememdous risk.

Bowman was reinstated on July 1 and only then were team allowed to talk to him and they couldn’t hire him until at least July 10 and the Oilers didn’t close the deal until July 24. Bowman may have been a leading candidate, but Jackson interviewed several candidates.

The 3 draft picks were made June 28 and 29. If Keith Gretzky and Brad Holland, who were actually interviewed for the job as well in early July, thought that the draft picks were directed by Bowman, there would be a massive problem. Rick Pracey was likely the man most responsible for those selections.

And Savoie and Jarventie were traded for on July 5th and 15th respectively again well before Bowman was hired. With Gretzky responsible for Bourgault and Tulio on the farm and Holland in charge of pro scouting, hard to imagine Jackson orchestrating these trades at that time without their involvement and again with both as candidates for the job, no way Jackson attempts to do that trade based on Bowman’s input.

Jackson does not seem like the type of person who want to go behind the back of the son of the man he just let go with something as risky as letting Bowman, a just reinstated formerly disgraced GM, run the show without crossing all the appropriate T’s and dotting the appropriate i’s.

Full credit to Bowman for every transaction post July 24.

Reja

So when we win the Cup does Bowman and his team have a asterisk beside his name as the winning G.M. I have zero idea how the law-code of conduct worked in this instance but I do have life experience and I hate to break it to you but everything is not black and white there’s a whole world of grey.

ristojalo

lol “life experience” … this is an interesting way of saying you are going to ignore the facts because they go against what you want to believe.

Elgin R

Looking at the Panthers in the playoffs this year is interesting. In their 17 games they have scored 1st 11 times. They have blown a lead once and have comeback 3 times (twice from 2 goals down). They have had three 1-goal games and lost 2 of them.

Oilers have scored first in 9 of their 16 games. They have given up 2-goal leads twice but have comeback FIVE times. They have had five 1-goal games and have won 3 of them (all in OT).

It would behoove the Oilers to score first and play it tight.

Rafa Nadal

Scoring first every time made the Dallas series much shorter than it could’ve been. It’s a great forumla.

LMHF#1

The Panthers have no hope in a run-and-gun with Edmonton.

ashley

That was the essence of DeBoer’s post game at series conclusion. He was frustrated with not scoring first, with not getting a lead. This is obviously because he had a brilliant defensive tactic he was hoping to deploy once they had a one goal lead. Likely a plan to trap the high-flying Oilers into frustration and submission.

Florida will do the same thing. They already showed us that game last year. Maurice is famous for his defensive tactics.

Scoring first is critical for the Oilers and then keeping the lead. It will make the Panthers open up and play an entertaining game. The longer the game goes on, the more likely they will score since they are the superior offensive team. So the key is not making silly defensive blunders as the Oilers have been prone to in recent years and all straightforward shots from distance must be saved.

I hope Knoblauch has been working on a strategy to counteract the outstanding Maurice tie/one goal lead defensive structure that was so baffling for the Oilers in game 7 last year.

Rafa Nadal

That was super impressive. As soon as Kulak backed in too much and let Reinhart shoot, you knew Florida wasn’t going to give it up. Sigh.

Traveller

Dallas was able to come from behind 5 times on both Colorado and Winnipeg, but only once on Edmonton. Edmonton definitely better at shutting things down in this year’s playoffs than either of those teams.

I don’t think we can assume that DeBoer’s would be any more brilliant than Hill or certainly not Cup winning Cassidy at planning to hold a lead vs Edmonton. After the first 2 games against LA, Edmonton was 3-0 vs LA when La scored first and 2-0 vs Vegas.

daniel

Reminds me of this old Tulsky post from 2013:

“So you know why teams that score first win two-thirds of the games? Because winning teams score about two-thirds of the goals.

There’s nothing magical about the first goal, no matter what The Stats Guy might tell you.”

TheGreatBigMac

Lol that sounds insightful at first, but it’s more like chicken and egg type logic. Only in this case one definitely came first!

90s fan

1. It’s not just he coach that pays the price, even though it looks like it, it’s the players.

2. Typically you hope that employees have a say in the vision, and then follow the vision as set, even when it may be different than their exact vision.

3. If coach and GM are not aligned, and cannot follow the same vision, one needs to go. Right or wrong, it’s gonna be the coach.

4. Trust is so important in any relationship, including working relationships

5. I remember the scene in Moneyball when Brad Pitt trades all the first basemen, because he wants his non first baseman to play there…. It was funny… And disfunctional.

6. Coach KK and Bowman seem to operate well in their respective roles, being sure to stay in their lane. I only assume they communicate appropriately, and help each other to do their jobs well. Bowman certainly seems to give KK his trust. And KK has certainly earned it.

judgedrude

LT: “The absolute worst Oilers lineup I can recall was Pat Quinn opening night of his only season as Edmonton’s coach.”

Coach said it at the time…They suck the hind banana!

Ryan

Too many fancy Dans.

OriginalPouzar

Brown not on ice – illness though.

OriginalPouzar

interesting with the intel that Jarventie was heading back to Europe but he’s signed a one year, 2-way deal with the Oilers.

This is fantastic, he only played those two games but he was legit high end in the first of them. If he can be healthy and play games, he has a real chance. There is an NHL player here from what I saw.

OriginalPouzar

I believe he did sign a 3-year deal with Tempere. Hopefully he’s willing to put some AHL development time in as he has a chance.

Reja

He’s sees a window with the Oilers this kid could be NHL ready. He just needed some games in Bakersfield to get up to speed then he gets hurt his 2nd game. Bakersfield is going to be fun to watch with some actual young kids not a bunch of fossils.

Moonlight

Oilers sign Jarventie to 1 year contract extension

bcoil

Im sorry but you Skinner supporters seem to imply that players are only judged by how many goals they score .Yes that is important and maybe more so on a team that is not a cup contender. But on a team like the Oilers or the Panthers or Dallas (can you imagine him in their lineups I cant ) you have to play 200 feet and Skinner just does not have that skill set .

I watched him closely last game and I could swear he spent 40 % of his ice time on his butt. He is very light on his skates .I think he skates too upright and just does not have a good solid base . There was one shift when his line was boxed in our end and Jeff did not seem to know where to go and then when he did make a choice to pressure a opposition player along the boards he ended up on his butt after basically bouncing of the player . But I agree with you that the coach has better all round players to choose from and at this time it is all about matchups and winning .

Last edited 1 day ago by bcoil
Pretendergast

Most of the rhetoric is that his expecteds are solid and the actual results early sewered him. Guy has legit skill. It’s also fun to cheer for the backup QB, I like that element. How could you not cheer for the guy to get in and succeed?

I don’t agree on his skating stance. Guy was a figure skater before hockey. Those folks may be lighter but there’s a reason skating coaches in the NHL are all former figure skaters. Elite edges, power, finesse.

His role was never to be a 2 way guy and would be miscast in that anyway. It’s not about things Skinner isn’t. He does the hardest thing to do better than the bottom of the roster. I wish the hole in the roster he was filling was more square than round as it currently is.

Traveller

It is somewhat fascinating to me that outside hockey observers using somewhat superficial data make the judgement that a player like Skinner should be in the line up over some other players. But rather than wonder if possibly Knoblauch has access to information, data and based his own personal reasoned assessment that maybe Skinner is not the ideal player to fill the role Knoblauch wants filled for team balance, the assumption made by the outside observers is that Knoblauch is stubborn.

If Knoblauch chooses not to put Skinner in the line up it will probably be for reasons like he is the slowest forward on the team outside of Perry, doesn’t kill penalties, would never be the net front presence on the first unit (the only spot that ever changes on that unit for good reason), and isn’t known for being an energy guy that is hard on the forecheck that wins board battles with physicality.

Knoblauch and his coaches watch everything these players do in all zone and situations, review way more data than available to the public for his team and the other team and based on the roles needed to be filled, chooses his line up based on that. Is it possible his decisions don’t pan out, sure. Players could under perform, the other team could have a bigger impact than expected or his strategy was off. But I doubt it is due to him being stubborn.

I will concede, coaches can be stubborn, and it is not impossible Knoblauch that that could influence but I would say the odds are far more likely that the outside observers are the ones that are stubborn regarding their opinions.

Last edited 1 day ago by Traveller
daniel

Jeff Skinner skating break down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuHaLpDne_k

leadfarmer

I think Knoblauch is gonna get a very very long leash given how far he’s gotten the team two years in a row and how a lot of deployment decisions turned out really well

Elgin R

Yes, a SC winning coach gets a long, long leash. Especially when he wins more than 1!

#NEVERINDOUBT

OriginalPouzar

During the regular season, Skinner’s goal share at five-on-five (51 percent, 52 expected) was above level. His five-on-five minutes with Connor McDavid (53 percent, 62 expected) rock solid.

I would note massive splits in Skinner’s goal share.

In the calendar year of 2025, he led the team in actual goal share, well over 60%. He was also 4th among forwards in 5 on 5 points in 2025.

I don’t imagine he plays tomorrow but he is a massive depth piece to have at this point.

Kudos to a guy like Kapanen that transformed his game in the playoffs to make him extremely valuable. He was the worst defensive forward on the team (by eye and various numbers, including individual numbers) in the regular season but has changed his game to be a very good checking forward using his speed and size.

kinger_OIL

— 5 year old this morning : “Dad when do the oilers play next?”

— “ONE MORE SLEEPS SON”

LFGOILERS!!!!

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

If memory serves me correctly, that was the night Gagner fought Conroy at the first puck drop. Gagner wasn’t getting a lot of warm and fuzzy feelings from Quinn (I think he was almost a scratch that night), and decided to make an impression. What a gamer!

Rafa Nadal

Hope McDrai can find a way through the wall that is Barkov-Reinhart. Two Selke players on the same line, just incredible.

LA was the best defensive team in the regular season, but that seems like a mirage. Florida is far and away the best defensive team the Oilers will see in these playoffs.

DevilsLettuce

Well if they’re on separate lines, they’ll definitely be shifts where the wall isn’t manned.

Top 2 players in the world centering their own lines, just incredible.

cowboy bill

I don’t mind a McDavid & Barkov matchup, as well I don’t mind a Draisaitl & Bennett matchup either. Both Oiler centers can contribute defensively when they set their minds to it and of course their offense is off the charts.

Reja

Florida hasn’t faced a puck moving D like we have at the moment. We also have 12 forwards that can actually score a goal.

90s fan

Really, that’s what worries you? Who McDrai has to beat is not on my mind at all. There are lots of other things that worry me ..

Rafa Nadal

I mean, that’s Florida’s formula. Limit your top players to around a point per game or less, and force your depth to beat them.

Traveller

McDavid has 24 points in his last 15 games vs the Panthers (since 21/22 the start of Barkov/Reinhart) combined playoffs and regular season (13 in 8 regular season games and 11 in 7 playoff games). They haven’t been able to hold him yet. That McDavid got 11, while his partner Leon played last year with a broken rib after the Vancouver series is remarkable.

Leon himself was 7 in the 8 regular season games, but with the broken rib, could only muster 3 assists last season. He also got only 4 points in 6 against Dallas last season for the same reason, after getting 24 points in 12 games vs 2 standout defensive clubs last season LA and Vancouver.

Traveller

McDavid/Draisaitl, two Art Ross Trophy winning, Hart Winning, Lester Pearson winning players on the same power play, sometimes on the same line and sometimes apart, and 3 and 4 all time in NHL playoff points per game with a minimum of 50 games played,
just incredible.

Perhaps LA, Vegas and Dallas, who all finished the regular season with better defensive statistics than Florida, suffered from playing against the Oilers attack.

Many seem to think that the Oilers got where they are because LA, Vegas and Dallas played poorly due to their own failings rather than believing that by the time it got real in the playoffs, the Oilers were the superior team. Since getting a chance to gel their roster after the first week of the playoffs, the Oilers have gone 12-2 vs the 3rd, 5th and 6th place teams in the regular season and they were the better team on the ice, for the significant majority of those 14 games.

OriginalPouzar

I would add that both are also Rocket Richard winning players.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I would not describe Florida as a good defensive team. Rather, they have a very aggressive forecheck and do not let teams play offense.

Oilers revamped their D group to beat aggressive forechecks. Should be fun.

OriginalPouzar

I believe the Panthers are prone to giving up fast break chances against due to their aggressive style.

Durag

Swap Jacques and Brule for Gagner and Moreau, and Visnovsky for Grebeshkov, and you might have something there! Keep the 4th line under 4 minutes a night.

pixel-bender

Marking on a curve that is the decade of darkness, that line-up isn’t horrid — there were years where non-NHL players outnumbered the rest and the die was cast in September.

Quinn as a coach was….something. He bypassed old-school all the way to embittered Classics Professor in some of his decision making — his inability to see what he had in Visnovsky at the top of the list.

Despite the horrible decisions to come, hiring Quinn was in a lot of ways the epitome of decision making in the Tambellini era. An inability to think creatively, flailing for solutions, not looking forward to where the puck will be and being utterly reactionary — everything that results in organizations failing.

To be fair, he did do a decent job rebuilding the minor league operations — solidifying the belief that he should have topped off as Assistant GM in any organization.

Wilbs

“Note: I copy/pasted so lines are C-L-R” – Yes! We missed you!

Regarding Skinner – it seems like in the past when we would lose to tougher teams the criticism was we needed more size/truculence (we’ve been chasing coke machines for how long?) and when we would lose to skilled teams we would lament a lack of youth, speed and skill (Holloway, where are you!). I would love to see Jeff Skinner play and succeed in the playoffs, but the playoffs are hard and I get why the coach would look at other options. I hope the coach is making the right decision.

Elgin R

The one good thing about the ‘Decade of Darkness’ was that free tickets were easy to get so took the whole family a lot. My kids grew up thinking that going to an Oiler game was just normal. Now that they are grown, and the team is much better, they see the true cost of going to a game of a Canadian contender that includes the best player in hockey. Just two games this year (one was in Van to see the Oilers punk the Dyes).

Anyways, a little anxiety about tomorrow night but feel that the good guys will win both on home ice. This team, even without Hyman, is the goods.

Oilers in 5!

JJS

That Pat Quinn roster should be included in the foreword of every GM/coach’s manual from here on forth. How did we make it through those years as fans? 🙂

Elgin R

beer

Red wolf

Here we go Oilers! Here we go!

Toupée Shakur

2 seasons as Oilers HC. 2 SCF appearances. This particular coach has most certainly earned the right to adjust his lineup as he sees fit.

One more sleep…. Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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