It was an instant classic, a team effort and (for this Oilers team) a patented come from behind victory. The glimmer twins were central to the story, bookend goals by Leon Draisaitl and a pair of valiant passes from Connor McDavid. All gold. All cashed. All coming against the Florida Panthers at their filthy best. Three. Wins. Away.
THE NUMBERS
The Oilers won the five-on-five (3-2 goals) but the Panthers are real and spectacular (Edmonton’s expected share was 46 percent) so this isn’t over.
I was surprised to see the Henrique line deployed more often than the other units, although (of course) McDavid led all forwards with 24 minutes of five-on-five icetime.
At five-on-five, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kasperi Kapanen and Trent Frederic led with two HD scoring chances each. The Kapanen chance had me thinking he was a RH Pete Mahovlich for a second. Kapanen had two assists last night. Helluva waiver claim, Stan.
Stuart Skinner had a fine game to my eye, his five-on-five SP (.933) slightly better than Bob’s (.919).
McDavid versus Barkov was the marquee matchup last night. In 11:57 five-on-five, McDavid’s trio was 9-2 shots and 62 percent expected goals (no actual goals). Leon Draisaitl saw Barkov 11:01, 9-3 shots, no goals, 55 percent expected.
Ekholm faced Barkov 10:22, 7-4 shots and 1-0 goals, 61 percent expected; Darnell Nurse faced Barkov 7:52 (4-4 shots, no goals, 28 percent expected goals); Jake Walman faced Barkov 2:57, 1-3 shots and no goals (21 percent expected).
Forced to choose a star of the game, it would be Draisaitl. He harpooned that winner into the net with all his might, not sure flesh, bone and blood could have stopped that thing.
Years from now, no matter the final result of this series, we will remember this game. If the Oilers happen to win Stanley, the lore surrounding the McDavid-to-Draisaitl winner will rise to extreme levels and sit beside Gretzky over Vernon’s shoulder, Messier’s wonderful deke then shot vs the Islanders, Kevin McClelland’s goal Game 1 1984 SCF and the Pisani. What a game. What an incredible game.
We’ll have a wall-to-wall Oilers talk on the Lowdown today, starting at noon. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will be our feature guest, plus Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson and Josh Fenwick will join me in a round table discussion about the game, the series and what may come. noon to 2pm on Sports 1440.
Go oilers!
In 07/08 I would discuss my expected avg method. I heard low res. Variable regressiin based arguements (Sample Size, etc.) aggainst. I did not explain it was the method I used to look at lobbying push 4 plastic in tech writing class NAIT 94’. I stood in front of class & said Ocean would fill w/ plastic. Girl in class said, “Solve it.” I did! My Final project a zero poln Kiln pwr feedstock chem sort soln 96’. Both papers & Heat xfer theorem they used to recertify the dept.
The shocked pause was telling from indv in dept when I called for a copy (They had the origional) of that paper (Needed to retain) used in recert of dept. fall of 24’.
Stacking ifentifiers has carried me to name hiring the last 1/4 century. It is in all my work. Fetal cell const cellular variance age 14 78’ (Based on a talk Muti C struc in soace variables age 8). 3D levitation drive sys (Maglev drive, Pulse mag feild generator, Gold based enert Partion 96’)
It was kind if Cool Elon, Charlie Kirk, & Kevin Oleary private acvounts Followed me. But adv enviro on earth ( Do/Not talk) generating thought/discusdion (Mentor/improve) in all communities has allways been my goal.
I was lucky enough to Work w/ G. Woods current head of TransAlta Gas & Renew & Mike Aubichon (Relabiltiy centered maint & Boeing jet main checklist.) in creation of 3D main design flaghing ays 00’. That is were my HD SH area heat mapping (2 seoerate maps closedshots into goalie & Open SH into net space). Gary saw me at Sheerness on contract pouring coffee & Saud to NA TransAlta Mgrs. “ Do not lose this guy” = 20 yrs, 3 kids, Coal to NG conv, Elect/ Disrivbutuon Soaced based Harmonics degredation gomeland research, 50 NHZl theories, & Now NFLs 3 key win mechanisms & Muti position based stacked identifiers like NHL.
All industries use xAvgs now. But my 3D (Team, comp, ZS) require further stacked identifiers 4th & 5 th variables to correctly generate data.
ZS type is variable #4: 4 data sets.
A. Bench chg vol w/ puck (Super soft)
B. OZ FO win % & Vol. (Soft)
C. dZ FO win% & Vol. (Hard)
D. Bench chg vol with out puck (super Hard)
we see general Bench chg vol. variance from 30 (Mcdavid) to 60 (Kuzmenko 23’) per 60. Which has great affect on penetration & OSH production for Forward & Def (xAvg theory 07/08).
I stated on Oilers twitter that we saw higher G production last 2 reg ssn. We were seeing poor def pkay ( usually better in rd 3 & 4) pre gm.
the continuation of poor def roster Build & ZS use stands out!
The HD SH area defence is shite. The 2 D & center Circle F rotation cover (critical) triangle failure is frustrating.
at least use d rotating under Goalie to cover up my High open Shot planes (Holes) I disvussed 18 yrs ago. The thing we saw Wpg do for the last 2 yrs! But they let their top def D (Schmidt) go.
allways ensuring constant def cover in NZ transition play. (Old NJD way) continues to bite us!
last 30 final 4 before this yr 83 % of winnig teams allowed 1.75 (7G) to .75 (3G) gaa in 4 wins.
we saw that in WC & EC finals.
So far the SC has not been pretty.
+/- means shit unless you know the xAvg for any players situations.
horcoff had one of the toughest ZS Vol. situation fwd seasons in Oiler history. He was -32 but relative to cumulative results of the 4 sets zs start data xAvg he was a plus player!
Best 3 year postseason runs in history, defensemen:
Coffey, 83-85: 53, 27-46-73 +56 [1.38 P/GP]
Bouchard, 23-25: 54, 16-51-67 +21 [1.24]**
Potvin, 81-83: 57, 21-45-66 +47 [1.16]
Hedman, 20-22: 71, 15-44-59 +16 [0.83]
Orr, 70-72: 36, 19-37-56 +42 [1.56]
Leetch, 94-96: 44, 18-37-55 +7 [1.25]
Makar: 20-22: 45, 14-40-54 +19 [1.20]
Murphy, 91-93: 56, 13-39-52 +15 [0.93]
Bourque, 90-92: 48, 15-36-51 -3 [1.06]
Robinson, 77-79: 45, 12-36-48 +51 [1.07]
Lidstrom, 07-09: 61, 11-36-47 +19 [0.77]
MacInnis, 88-90: 35, 12-33-45 +7 [1.29]
Zubov, 94-96: 50, 9-36-45 +10 [0.90]
Keith, 13-15: 64, 9-36-45 +33 [0.70]
We are witnessing history.
** Through G1 of the 2025 SCF.
Proposition: Podkolzin is sort of like a Russian Bob Gainey.
I was thinking of Jaroslav Pouzar except that Podkolzin skates way better and hasn’t appeared on as many Wanted posters
I was thinking REM the gem, he is doing everything right, just not being noticed. REM did score, Arvy’s doesn’t go in without him. Assist given. HH has spoken.
I don’t see Podkolzin in LT’s 5 on 5 numbers…
Podkolzin’s drop pass to Arvidsson then screening Bob until the last moment before he turns away was poetry.
Hitting everything in sight; skating his ass off from across the rink to pressure Nosek into the delay-of-game penalty. Love this guy’s game!
Biz explaining “Pink Pony Club” to Gretz on the TNT postgame was amusing.
Now to find out the origin story of why that song
I have a couple theories…..
I propose he is not a type of Pisani, but rather a Podzani… a new breed of Oilers’ “bringer-of-wrath”. He may not be the guy finding the back of the net, but he is the one who blows up guys to get the puck (at any cost) and distribute it… contributing to the next goal.
100% agree. Podz, is a great unsung. New Jersey.
POD is like a heat seeking missile. When he picks his target, he finishes on target
I don’t know guys. I believe Bennett cheated on that first goal. I looked at the replay several times and he has all his weight on his left leg. He backs his right leg into Kulak, not vice versa. He looks over slightly at Kulak before backing into him with his right leg to make sure he gets it right. But the clincher is what the refs should have seen on the review: His right leg (bearing virtually no weight so cannot really trip him) bounces off Kulak forward with contact. The skate is in full upright position and Bennett is well balanced. THEN, he jumps backwards from both skates and falls into Skinner.
This is straight from the Ryan Kesler book of dirty tricks.
I despise how hockey has turned into a game of cheaters. It’s hard to be a fan and watch that kind of thing get rewarded by the league and refs. Disgusting.
I have lost all respect for Sam Bennett, and I had a lot of respect for him before that.
Oh, spare me. If Perry did it, you’d call him a crafty vet who knows how far to push it.
I wouldn’t. Lame play.
Spare us all. If this happened the other way, I would fully expect Maurice to have challenged that, and I would’ve been prepared for the goal to be recalled. The rules can’t change in the playoffs, and the play actually requires thoughtful review on a coaches challenged, neither of which required.
Of course I would’ve been happy if we were the beneficiaries the other way, but I wouldn’t have thought it was fair. Those are 2 different things. Similar to how I wasn’t sad when the Oilers rattled off 2 goals after the missed Bouch delay of game call against Dallas. Doesn’t mean I didn’t think we got away with that
*occurred
I have to totally agree with you, I was at the game and that sequence actually started when Bennett hooked the def in the slot to keep him from going to the wall and challenging the Panthers fwd who got possession unchecked….never mind the call from Wes.
Glen Anderson almost never lost his balance no matter what opposing players were doing to him, except when the he was within 5 feet of the goalie, then he would suddenly not be in control and be “forced” into the goalie by the defender. Usually no penalty.
That kind of cheating has been part of the NHL since the NHL started. Not a part I like or admire, but it’s there.
I find hockey analysts, usually ex-NHL players or coaches, take on this phenomenon a real study in hypocrisy or just bad logic. On the one hand they will say a dive is bad sportsmanship and a blight on the game, but trapping an opponents stick under your arm to get a hooking call is a veteran savvy move.
They did not do video review then. There should be no excuse now with 100″ 8k views from every angle. They know Bennett 100% flopped on the goalie on purpose. He was the instigator of all contact and he deliberately went into the crease. And yes he deliberately elbowed Toronto’s goalie in the side of the head for no reason but to injure him and knocked him out of the series. If someone two handed him across the face with a stick and broke his jaw it would be called Karma!
The refs have continuously let Bennett get away with his over the line play. How much time did the officials spend on the review? Ten seconds maybe? Their mind was made up before they even looked at the iPad. How many Oiler goals review have taken 3-5 minutes? Watch video until you find something to justify the desired result.
I timed it. It was just under 40 seconds.
Insiders are saying the NHL doesn’t want to call goals back. They had no interest in getting that call right.
The issue is there is no consistency in refereeing and can guarantee sometime in the near future the exact same thing happens and the refs waive the goal off.
100% he did it on purpose, but 100% that challenge was never going to overturn the call on the ice. Bad decision, IMO, even though we all know Bennett had intent. Maybe playing the long game and the next time Bennett does it an arm might go up.
One of the many things Gretzky said last night on the tele was that both Reinhart and Tkachuk were playing injured. Is there any reason to suspect this is true? I know Reinhart missed some time but he played 29 mins, most of any Panther forward last night. And I thought Tkachuk was fine in time for the playoffs?
Chuck’s issue is apparently a core problem suffered at the 4 Nations Cup. People who have watched him play all playoff say it clearly affects his skating. Not the fastest guy, but compared to last year in the playoffs, his NHL Edge data has his top speed below 20, when he is usually closer to 21, and even his bursts over 18 MPH are less than half of what they were last season. Ironically, many believe he sustained his injury in the fight with Hagel when Hagel wrestled him to the ice at the end of it. I feel no sadness for him challenging a player he out weighs by 20 lbs to a message sending fight.
Reinhart got a hip check above his left knee area and missed games 3 and 4 of the Carolina series. Speculation is that their was damage (sprain or small tear to ACL, MCL or meniscus). He is definitely not near full health. Leon played over 20 a game in the finals last year with probably a broken rib.
Please do not mistake my curiosity for empathy 🙂
We’re missing a top line winger.
Good to know that Chucky and Sam have substantial limitations. Maybe that inspired KK to run RNH with Kap and Kane later on to compete in the top 6
My apologies for not being clear. I never thought you had any empathy or sympathy for him. My main point was that these guys are playing hurt more than typical for the playoffs. Probably wouldn’t play a non critical regular season game right now.
My comment on no sadness was just adding a little extra dig on Chucky based on him being mostly a gutless weasel (by NHL standards – not based on outside standards) and his injury was Karma.
Hopefully HH was able to crawl out from under a pile of Brock Nelson avalanche jerseys and was able to watch the game
I will give you 30-1 odds he watched.
I saw what you did there!
All the talk of the big bad Panthers. Overall for the 18 players dressed, based on NHL bio info, the two teams are the same average height and the Oilers have a 2 pound average weight advantage. Florida’s D is 2 lbs heavier on average than the Oilers D, but Edmonton’s forwards are on average 5 lbs heavier.
Add in that the Oilers on average are considerably faster (in NHL terms it is not close), the Oilers have a higher success rate when they attempt a hit.
I don’t think Florida will win this with general intimidation.
No way they can. Bowman added beef that can play (Walman is a tank) and Kane being healthy, they have Turtle Bennett and Slasha for the actively dirty. And none would have a chance against Kane Frederic Perry and probably Pod would give them all they could handle, not to mention Nurse Walman or Ekholm. Bennett needs a derogatory nickname. Scam Bennett? To go with Turtle and Slasha
https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/necas_unhappy_with_avalanche_possible_trade_coming/s1_16454_42288648
The initial Necas-Rantanen trade seems to be paying dividends for those who like to see drama and shakeups to multiple teams, with now a 4th team likely to get in on the action for excellent talents being tossed around. Genuinely surprised he didn’t enjoy the experience of playing with MacKinnon and Makar.
Also makes me ever more appreciative of the culture and experience in Edmonton, that has encouraged multiple players to commit to the franchise, prior to any significant playoff success. How lucky are we?
I agree with you on this, but the Oilers still need to win 3 more games to match Nate and Cale’s achievements.
That wasn’t a statement on team achievement.
Getting great players to want to spend their prime years with a commitment to the most northern city in our continent is a phenomenal achievement in and of itself. I love Edmonton, but if I had no initial attachment and millions in cash, I would definitely explore elsewhere.
That’s a tip of the cap to the fans and the community, the management and ownership, the city, but mostly to the players who owe us the contracted years and nothing more, but have chosen to continue to proudly represent this club and this city, both in the media and on the ice
Why are the Oilers a deeper team than the Panthers?
One reason is that our goalie tandem is $9.8M less than theirs. Some of the $9.8M gives us our great 3rd pairing and 4th line compared to what the Panthers bring in those slots.
Absolutely hilarious that our ‘backup’ has 7 wins in 8 career playoff starts and their backup (Vanecek) has only 2 wins in 7 starts (and has not played a playoff game since 2023).
Keep shooting the puck and getting Bob to move sideways. He will tire out and hopefully breakdown.
Now do the 3rd pairing D partners for both teams
I noted on another platform today that one area that Bowman should get kudos is NOT comitting cap resources to a change at goalie – whatever that may have looked like, it certainly would have cost a Walman and/or Klingberg or something off the current roster.
Watching the media avail with Kane and Arvidsson. 4 minutes in Arvidsson gets his first question. Kane is such a media darling.
Well, truth be told, Kanner is a very intelligent, well-spoken and engaging person – he’s also apt to provide a “very honest” quote or a “passive aggressive” one at times that the media would eat up.
I don’t need to tell you all to read Curlock’s review but he is so brilliant – I wish he was on the Oilers payroll.
Had no idea that the Henrique line a) saw Barkov’s line most often and sawed off (expected and actual), and b) did well when not out with Nurse-Kulak. Puts this in a whole new light. If they can keep that up, great! Henrique coast aside, and I suspect Brown will be better. Not sure Skinner could have performed better in this assignment but we’ll likely never know.
Nurse-Kulak: remains a problem. Curlock talks about them being forced to backhand too much. I hope they figure this out, because Curlock’s solution of tying them to McDavid’s line seems problematic when you want that line to produce. Last week I proposed either Ekholm-nurse and Kulak-Bouch, or Stecher unthinkably takes Kulak’s spot with Nurse with all natural sided D pairings, and I’m not convinced these are worse than what is currently happening.
Also loved his breakdown of all the success that occurred when F came back below Florida’s forwards to present breakout options for the D under heavy forecheck, as I believe they did and can replicate this recipe for success
Stecher moves the puck well. You have to be a smart guy to play over 600 NHL games as a 5-10 / 185 lb dman. Nurse is better with Stecher, and we need Nurse to be his best. Therefore, give Kulak a game off and see how it shakes out in GM2.
KK, like most coaches, will likely remain stubborn with a winning lineup, and sitting Kulak seems like a bold move, even though as mentioned there is merit
More likely is that he rearranges the pairings.
Most likely is that he continues to run them as a pair and coaches them through it with more F support.
I think the current rationale is that Ek-Bouch combined +4 > Nurse-Kulak -1. But Kulak-Bouch is also a net positive and Ek-Nurse in limited minutes are sawing off. The former is a bit of river boat gambling and the latter is a safer but lower payout bet
Kulak is 2nd on 5 on 5 TOI/G – playing 6 minutes per game more than Stech did in his 6 games. That swap also adds to the job of other d-men as Coffey won’t play Stech on a regular shift near 20 minutes.
There were moments in the 3rd(?) where some of the D pairings changed, hopefully coaches noted who worked well with whom.
Having realized that RNH could hum with Kapanen and Kane while allowing McDrai with Perry to succeed, I wonder if we see that to start next game as well
Hope not – main reason is, when McDavid and Drai start the game together, there isn’t the ability to make an adjustment and put them together mid-game for a spark.
That game was a nail biter and thoroughly enjoyable. At the same time I thought a lot of the game was played a bit slow, even lacking intensity at times. Strange?
It was more like a chess match.
Florida was testing out their forecheck, super aggressive yet sometimes they pulled back.
Edmonton played calm and controlled, doing everything they could to get control and make a safe pass. A few blunders but they sticked to the plan.
Oilers forwards tried to open up ice, hold defence out of their zone, in order to make the stretch pass. If wingers did get back into D zone, Panthers dmen would pinch every time. Panthers d would also force the play or hold the blue line every time.
Florida absolutely the most aggressive strategy in the league. Playing this aggressive opens up holes though, but Panthers feel they are so good they will generally win the puck or goalie will save them. Oilers playing heads up, looking for weakness.
As the Panthers tire and the Oil get them figured out, odd man rushes start, semi breakaways occur, holes open up that can be exploited.
Besides the other qualities of this team, I find how they adapt to solve the opposition is their greatest strength.
I watched the OT goal a million times because it felt so good. It’s interesting that every Oiler player touched the puck, from Skinner stopping the puck behind his net, to Bouchard dropping it for McDavid, and you know the rest.
It’s wild that the Oilers are 4-0 in OT games this playoffs, with Draisaitl bagging 3 of those goals and short a few inches on the other winner before Kapanen stuffed it in.
I must say, Seth Jones looked pretty good. Must feel good to go from the basement to one of the best teams in the league.
Must feel better for Walman.
Awesome player, third of the price!
I don’t think he had a great regular season even after moving teams, but no doubt has proven himself a valuable top 4 D in the playoffs. Even at 7 mil it’s not a bargain but it’s hard to critique by comparison to Nurse. Also shows you the danger of trying to eat salary on any deal involving a top 4 D. Chicago did Florida a solid, although as mentioned, SJ arguably did us more of a solid with Walman, still cost controlled next year
The “over the glass” “delay of game” is an absolutely stupid penalty that I hate.
Except for last night.
Last night it was a fine penalty, I didn’t mind it at all.
But going forward, Im going back to my position that it is a dumb rule and must be revised.
If it’s the only penalty we can count on the refs to call against Florida (short of murder), I’ll take it. 🙂
Maybe it can be revised. Last 5 minutes of the game its a penalty, otherwise its an icing. But ya.. Agree.
That’s what I thought Maurice was trying to argue, but he just wanted an extra 10 seconds on the clock and no icing…although the puck hitting the bench resulted in an offensive zone faceoff all the same so I’m actually not sure what he was trying to accomplish.
If Edmonton scored within those 25 seconds, how would he have felt? Unless it was simply more mind games and flexing on the refs.
As a fan of Chaos I’d like to see them experiment with letting the netting be considered live and just continuing play. Why slow the game down when you could just let it go and “netting the puck” could be a strategy?
Can’t say hitting the netting would be an advantage for either team, the puck will just drop to wherever it drops. Could even net more of the sides of the rink…
It’s the same as hitting a ref with the puck, they don’t whistle the puck for that. I’m surprised more players don’t target refs, for a variety of reasons.
This made me smile. Chaos indeed!
I love it, it’s usually a sign the defending team is under severe stress. Removing the penalty gives a team getting caved in a free out.
And that would be awful if you enjoy the sport.
I don’t know how much you know of the dead puck era, but veteran defenders made “accidentally” flipping the puck out of play while under pressure an art form. The New Jersey Devils were especially proficient at it as I recall.
And that’s why the rule came in the same time as not being able to change lines after an icing — it was a tool to relieve pressure and reset after offensive pressure was being applied.
And, as we all know, if you give officials the opportunity to apply their own judgement to something things don’t get called — hence the zero tolerance.
I get why it feels annoying after a defender does, in fact, do it accidentally while not under pressure but it’s a necessary rule that is in place to allow teams to build and maintain offensive pressure.
You must be a younger hockey fan then. In the 80s all you saw on the penalty kill was an endless volley of pucks going over the glass.
The Oil need to find someone able to knock down lob exit passes effectively. Hyman was playing this role and it worked very well. Much like a good striker in soccer – receive tough passes with back to net and hand off to the rushing wingers
One material issue from last night – Kane couldn’t get the puck out on the boards. It happened a lot. That can’t continue.
That’s classic Kane. While very strong, he makes very weak plays on the boards in the D zone.
Yes. He has the body and spirit, but lacks the hands to make quick finesse plays.
His best play in that situation is to lob it down with enough weight to not be icing, which he seems to have a knack for. He does that more with the lead. I understand it’s not ideal in chase mode, but he should be encouraged to do that as a pressure relief
Sign Kapanen!
If its at the same cap hit, yes.
I don’t anticipate we’d see much of a different Kap next regular season than we did this regular season but I do think his “playoff performance” is repeatable – don’t think its do-able during the regular season.
Something has to be done about Bennett he’s playing the best hockey of his career.
install a pull-up bar in the visitor’s dressing room?
I would suggest be aware of him but mostly ignore him for now.
When Arvidsson was on the boards he knew (twice_ that to make the play he’d have to take the hit, no way around it. Bennet is a shitbird, he knows this as well but is happy to hit with intent to injure.
Arvidsson is a tough little bugger though, he wont stay down.
Bennett was previously not this good until he discovered being an ass will create space for him, and its working. Take space away, take puck away.
It’s almost hard to believe this is the same Sam Bennett who had a total of 24 points in 90 games over his last two seasons with Calgary.
I personally think they just misused Bennett. He wasn’t in the position to succeed like he is in Florida. Kinda like how the Oilers used Puljujarvi, instead of playing them the way the player needed to gain confidence and be successful, fortunately for Bennett, he spoke English when he came into the league and was able to run with the opportunity when he got it versus Puljujarvi.
One of my favorite taka aways from last game, at least to my eye was that even if our forecheck wasn’t getting the puck, they pounded Florida’s D every chance they got, I feel it was already taking a toll in game 1, so if that continues and FLA continues to ride their top pairing so hard this will really work on our favor as this series goes on.
Ekblad is a big guy (6-4 / 220) that played just about 8 minutes above his average 2025 playoff TOI plus got hit a lot – that has to take a toll.
Forsling is smaller (6-1 / 199) but played almost 10 minutes above his average 2025 playoff TOI.
Pound these two and keep pounding them so that Panthers have to play the never trusted 3rd pair.
….and when they are done, thump Ekblad some more for Taylor Hall back in the day..
A number of articles I read following the game and on NHL Network on Sirius XM this morning, seemed to be focused on how the Panthers sat back and stopped playing their game instead of the Oilers being unwilling to give up. I don’t get that take.
Yes, the Oilers scored on a PP in the last minute of OT, but does that mean that since Ekholm scored to tie it 6.5 min into the 3rd, that Florida sat back and tried to defend? The Oilers were pretty dominant in the 3rd and for significant parts of the OT. Is it so much of a stretch to suggest the Oilers are a good team that forced the Panthers to play into their system?
I’m OK with that lazy narrative – it keeps the Oilers underdogs / under-respected which has served them nicely so far.
The Oilers pressed and had FLA on their heels for the last 2 periods – as you say, if FLA could turn the switch, why didn’t they?
More likely FLA were tired due to over-reliance on top 9/4 and, we sometimes forget, the altitude.
Also, the Oilers look like the best-conditioned team this year, consistently stronger as the game goes on.
With this being an analytics friendly blog, I pulled out my stopwatch to pull some objective data from the Panthers first goal.
From the time the puck went in, to Wes “Respect my Authority” McCauley announcing the Oilers challenge – 52 seconds elapse
Wes takes 5 seconds to announce the challenge
From the time Wes finishes announcing the challenge to the time he completes his review and takes of the headset – 40 seconds elapse
From the time Wes takes off the headset and explains that his call was confirmed because the Edmonton defenseman knocked down the Florida player and the Oiler are guilty of delay of game – 17 seconds elapses.
Another 33 seconds elapse before the puck is dropped to start the Florida PP.
So the objective Data in real-time:
2:27 total from goal scored to Puck drop
40 seconds of that total is Wes looking at a tablet for a way to uphold the on Ice call.
23 seconds of Wes on the mic announcing
So I guess the game was delayed 63 seconds and Wes made sure that it was a complete waste of time.
Sorry for interjecting some subjectivity between the numbers. I in no way intended to make Wes look like an asshole.
Lastly TNT had a great replay of the net front with Wes in the background. He was looking at the puck the whole time and did not see the egregious slewfoot Kulak put on Bennett.
We all know that if it was Kane the goal would of been disallowed. Hrudey and the rest of the Oiler trolls would laugh that it was a nice try by Kane but everyone could see he fell on purpose into Bob.
And Kane would have gotten a penalty so their wouldn’t even be a review. Kane got crosschecked from behind into Hill, then is attacked by Hill then gets a penalty…Joke league
Devan Dubnyk vehemently disagreed with the call and is the closest to being an active NHL goalie. He pointed out the inconsistency. Tripping into a crease has never justified interference. Or else Hyman would have a 60 goal season. Seriously. I’d have challenged that call all day in a competent league
“Rule 69 – Interference on the Goalkeeper 69.1 Interference on the Goalkeeper –
This rule is based on the premise that an attacking player’s position, whether inside or outside the crease, should not, by itself, determine whether a goal should be allowed or disallowed. In other words, goals scored while attacking players are standing in the crease may, in appropriate circumstances be allowed (refer to Rule 69.7 for example). Goals should be disallowed only if: (1) an attacking player, either by his positioning or by contact, impairs the goalkeeper’s ability to move freely within his crease or defend his goal; or (2) an attacking player initiates intentional or deliberate contact with a goalkeeper, inside or outside of his goal crease. Incidental contact with a goalkeeper will be permitted, and resulting goals allowed, when such contact is initiated outside of the goal crease, provided the attacking player has made a reasonable effort to avoid such contact. The rule will be enforced exclusively in accordance with the on-ice judgement of the Referee(s), but may be subject to a Coach’s Challenge (see Rule 38). For purposes of this rule, “contact,” whether incidental or otherwise, shall mean any contact that is made between or among a goalkeeper and attacking player(s), whether by means of a stick or any part of the body. The overriding rationale of this rule is that a goalkeeper should have the ability to move freely within his goal crease without being hindered by the actions of an attacking player. If an attacking player enters the goal crease and, by his actions, impairs the goalkeeper’s ability to defend his goal, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed. If an attacking player has been pushed, shoved, or fouled by a defending player so as to cause him to come into contact with the goalkeeper, such contact will not be deemed contact initiated by the attacking player for purposes of this rule, provided the attacking player has made a reasonable effort to avoid such contact. If a defending player has been pushed, shoved, or fouled by an attacking player so as to cause the defending player to come into contact with his own goalkeeper, such contact shall be deemed contact initiated by the attacking player for purposes of this rule, and if necessary a penalty assessed to the attacking player and if a goal is scored it would be disallowed. ”
So the only argument that justifies the call is to say that Kulak “fouled” Bennett.
Friedman on his 32 thoughts podcast this morning stated that a new precedent has been set. The league has to make his call both ways now.
So the Oilers can be clumsy and trip over the opposition to commit goalie interference. It just has to look accidental. Keep your head up Sergei!
Here’s the NHL’s official explanation from the situation room.
Challenge Initiated By: Edmonton
Type of Challenge: Goaltender Interference
Result: Call on the ice is upheld – Goal Florida
Explanation:
Video review confirmed that the actions of Edmonton’s Brett Kulak caused Florida’s Sam Bennett to contact Stuart Skinner prior to his goal. The decision was made in accordance with Note 2 of Rule 38.11 (ii) which states, in part, that the goal should be allowed because “the attacking Player was pushed, shoved or fouled by the defending Player causing the attacking Player to come into contact with the goalkeeper.”
Penalty: 2:00 minor penalty: Delay of Game – Unsuccessful Challenge
Love 27. But the question has to be asked. Should the Oilers insert 51 over Kulak to play the right side with Nurse?
I think it needs to be considered. I would personally sit Nurse but that’s obviously not going to happen. Nurse and Kulak were real bad last night to my eye.
Huh? Blasphemy
Not real bad. Florida is the best at aggressive forecheck, it is difficult for any defenceman. Couple of miscues that I noticed and mentioned to the TV. However, when everyone is playing basically well, then any miscue gets noticed.
Despite Walmans excellent game, it is likely he has some significant bruising today. If he is less than 100% then that’s where we might see Stetcher in my opinion.
Walman was at the podium doing media today – I don’t think he’s coming out of the lineup for bruising.
Stecher isn’t coming in to the lineup unless one of the six truly are too injured to play.
What? Blasphemy
Nurse is the problem, but Stetcher is a Nurse-activated witch. So yes – Kulak out. Frederic should be as well.
Agree, work the best pairs and lines. Let Kulak rest for a game at least and put Stetcher in. Sit Frederic for JSkinner.
Paul Coffey is relying on Kulak for the 2nd most minutes at 5 on 5 in the playoffs – he’s not coming out to rest.
Your statement pretty much speaks to the fact that Nurse is not the singular problem. Sounds like the problem is Nurse in relation to certain d-partners.
No.
No, but then you have to be willing to shake up D pairings
Sure, I’m wiling to switch up the d-pairings and have suggested Nurse/Walman which was unreal good in 100 minutes during the regular season. Walman keeps his effectiveness better than Kulak on the right side.
At the end of the day, lets be real here, Troy Stecher did a great job in the six games he played, just like Cal Pickard but he’s not playing over a healthy Nurse or Kulak and nor should he.
Nurse and Kulak are 1-2 in 5 on 5 TOI/G among the group at six, SIX, minutes more per game than Stecher.
Lets not forget the usage of Nurse/Kulak (TOI, QoC, etc.) over Stecher.
Kulak was terrible last night. It’s good that the Oilers have the depth to have Stecher and Emberson available should they be required.
Not seeing a lot of Klingberg talk today. I said it last night, but that was absolutely superstar Klingberg in that game. He controlled the puck while the rest of his team got their heads on straight and FLA had no answer. His gift for not being hit is something every defenceman should be taught. Just a wonderful hockey game from #36.
He was excellent. One of the few guys making consistently clean outlets.
Ty Emberson should take some notes on the “not-getting-hit” part, because he leaves himself open a lot. He had 198 Hits Taken (4th highest) and 10.3 HT/60 this year, which was the highest in the league.
Emberson is not as smooth skating and mobile so he’s going to get hit more. That’s just reality.
I think that’s fair, and am just hoping he get can get hit less and not the most.
Emberson needs to learn to play the puck quicker.
In every series, the Oilers have required a game (or 3 against LA) to sort themselves and the opponent before they started to take control. Nice to see them take the game 1 “sorting game”….should be ready to roll tomorrow.
The Panthers play a high pressure, high risk style. They are very good at their structure doing that. I hope the Oilers can find the game 2 counter they have always so far. If they can get a rhythm beating that pressure they will lay the boots to them
Florida definitely has the most frustrating plan of attack against our defensemen. They’re good at disrupting the breakout, which resulted in so many icings and flips to neutral ice.
However I didn’t find them able to generate a sustained attack in the offensive zone. It’s going to be a challenge for Edmonton to get it out of our zone, but we seem to have mastered own-zone defensive coverage to limit HD’s.
To your point, the Oilers end up with several odd-man rushes on the counter-attack which plays to our favour.
It was VERY important to have won game 1. The bounces won’t always go our way, but I’m confident The Oilers’ finesse players will be able to outchance the Kitty Cats.
FLA were also very good at keeping the puck in at the blue line and extending their OZ time. Coach K will have an antidote, I’m sure.
That’s an interesting observation (Panthers not sustaining the attack in our zone).
Am not sure if it can be broken out or not, but it would not surprise me as much of that time was just dealing with the forecheck along the boards versus the Panthers sustaining a forecheck and the play being along the boards (less dangerous).
Thing is, Florida is that good on the forecheck and all it takes is one breakdown and that can lead to a glorious chance. Hoping the Oilers make even more use of the middle of the ice (breaking it out) or flipping it out in Game 2.
When I’m old I plan to occasionally get lost in the pleasure of watching two decades of McDavid & Draisaitl highlights that will make me nostalgically prozaic.
These are the days of miracles and wonder.
I watched a full 2 minutes on Instagram of Davo almost scoring and even those plays were magical
These are the good ole days
Kasperi would have been a god in this city for years if he’d cashed that breakaway chance after that hockey game.
And Bouchard knew it could be done after he saw the first one.
They smelled blood.
I liked watching Paul “they can’t call them all” Maurice post-game. He held it together, but barely. I don’t buy the folksy, everyman shtick one bit. Expect even more thuggery as this progresses.
💯 Here’s hoping that after Game 1, the boys recognize the oncoming filth. Florida is looking to injure and that’s dangerous, especially when you’re not expecting it. I think we showed them last night that we’re ready to battle and that we too can be physical. I mentioned last night that even on a simple pick (which should be interference) they are coming hot with full weight. Like you said, it’s only going to get worse.
Reporters had him on his heels on a few questions and pushing back with ‘we’re better too’ a couple of times and doing his best not to concede anything to the team that just beat him. I don’t think he expected the outcome he got last night and I don’t think he expected the Oilers to carry as much of the play as they did. We’ll see how he adjusts.
Well when you are heading into the third period with a 30-0 record when leading after two, he definitely did not expect the final result.
Doubt started to creep in after those back to back goals in the first. Then we seemed flat/contained in the second, with the 3-1 goal seeming to be the dagger. Then this team sorted themselves out, started playing calmer, and looked more like the team that steamrolled vegas and dallas. OT in particular was fun to watch. I should have felt more nervous, but you could tell we were adjusting and playing better as the game went on, while Florida looked like they were scrambling for nearly 20 minutes straight at the end.
I am sure they come back ready to go for game 2, but it sure felt like we have a level that they can’t match. This whole team has been saving themselves for this moment, they’re looking determine and surprisingly fresh. Can’t wait for game 2!
If they had the hardest worker award after every game this year, I am pretty sure that Podkolzin would be the runaway leader. What a deal!
Love that kid. Thankfully he’s signed for next season too. I’m curious to see what he’s learned this season and see if he can really take a jump in scoring next year. The fact that Canucks fans are now disappointed the let him go for a fourth is just gravy.
On the game-winning overtime goal, I first thought that Marchand was goal-sucking, but on rewatching it now believe that the Panthers are worried about the Bouchbomb and he was staying up to cover Bouchard (and goal sucking at the same time). However, he and Jones were way above the circles and the D-box was way too large. This left a 3-on-2 with the good guys having three (3) Rocket winners to do the damage against 1D and Selke-Sasha.
Got to have EB keep shooting the puck on the PP to keep them honest.
To my eye, it was Perry’s sick little back pass thru the defender that made the lethal 2:1. Oilers passing it around the wall until then.
PP was generally good. Although it was 1/4 by official stat, it was really 1/3 as the first period PP-Perry penalty-PP counted as 0/2 with 2 mins of PP time
Nugent-Hopkins made the critical pass under pressure from Jones and Marchand on the winning goal. Marchand was hoping for a Nuge mistake and a SH breakaway. Instead Nuge “pulled both their pants down”.
He made two critical passes, first back to Bouch at the point and then down to Perry.
Bouch turning Forsling inside out was not on my bingo card but i love it.
I forget which show but they mentioned Florida’s defence doesnt really skate backward alot. It’s always forward or lateral which is great when youre pressuring constantly but when another team can break that it seems there’s a vulnerability there.
Seth Jones is their best skater back there hammer that guy.
Is Walman ok he looked in severe pain for most of the game. But kept going.
Getting hit by a puck in the armpit is a new form of pain I have never experienced.
I sure hope he’s ok, but I think he gave himself a core strain with that awkward hit he gave someone. Instead of lowering the shoulder into him he pulled up
There is an art to hitting and taking hits, the Panthers are pretty good at it. You have to protect yourself. Not everything is avoidable, but an awful lot is. The Oilers hopefully don’t get injured out of their destiny, again
I thought that he got the wind knocked out of him. Those who’ve had that happen know how stressful that can be.
He’s fine – coach said all players are good to go and Walman was at the podium doing media this morning.
No he hit someone, and got nutted by that someone’s stick.
Arvidsson-Janmark-Podkolzin line was dynamite.
Moneypuck says 5v5 9:50, 1-0 actual goals, 5-3 shot share, xGF 52%
A great ‘4th’ line that outplayed the opposition 4th line by TOI, goals and the eye test!
To my eye they were exciting and effective. Interestingly, NaturalStatTrick (and LT), make no mention of them. Thanks for the MP reference.
Godot is going to have no choice but to admit every Oilers is going super nova.
I think you are confusing me with someone else.
That game was better than The Doors ‘Absolutely Live’ and man I love that album.
Yes, I’m old. 🙂
Solid win, but there periods of the game where we were nervous. I thought SSkinner didn’t look calm and settled until the 3rd GA. He sure settled in after that!
The Panthers forecheck is unrelenting and they do a good job of clogging the neutral zone, of course mostly by interfering and hooking. At time this led to long stretches in the Oilers end. Once the Oilers found their legs and made a few adjustments, the puck spent less time in the Dzone.
A wonderful game last night by the entire group – Podz, Kap, Janmark, Kane were excellent. As too were Walman and Kling. Maybe not so much Nurse-Kulak pairing.
Finally, beautiful smart little pass by Perry on the GWG. Because of recency bias, we forget what a force he was in his prime.
Rest up, can’t wait until Friday.
Yes. Wow. What a forecheck! And what a wonderful & persistent response by the Oilers.
Resistance is futile, all your bases are belong to us..
A winner is you!
How great was this single-game redemption story for Leon. Not able to help out last year in the SCF due to injuries. Parents in the stands last night and he scores 2 beauties!
Leon scores another 6 goals and wins the Smythe.
I guess HH is around to give this a downvote. Stay consistent HH, stay consistent.
He’s my front runner.
3 OT GWG, leading team in goals, neutralizing Eichel and winning 5v5 despite lesser forwards than McDavid.
Lot of series left, and they may split votes for those who are thinking F.
I’m sure Davo would be thrilled if his best friend won it and it came with a Cup
I heard on the CoH podcast the Podkolzin’s brother was also in attendance.
Oilers, please invite more family!
How does Barkov win the Selke with a +1 rating in the regular season?
It’s always about reputation and narratives, not reality.
Reputation award
Yup, PHWA is nothing if not consistent in following the narrative.
For me, to win this award the player should excel in the following areas: be available to the team (does not miss many games), play on the PK, score well and outscore the opposition at ES (+/-).
2024 / 2025 Regular Season
Barkov: 67 games played / 20-51-71 / +1 overall / +4 ES / / ESP = 39 / 1:30 PK TOI average
Hagel: 82 games played / 35-55-90 / +33 overall / +34 ES / ESP = 72 / 1:52 PK TOI average
Eichel: 77 games played / 28-66-94 / +32 overall / +33 ES / ESP = 58 / 1:33 PK TOI average
Looking at the stats, this should be a no-brainer win for Brandon Hagel.
This is incredible.
Am surprised Bergeron didn’t win it this year, “on rep”
(after all no goals were scored when he was playing)
He won the Selke in the same way that Rafael Palmeiro won a GG playing fewer than 30 games at 1b.
I think Barkov is a legit top defensive forward in the league, whether or not he deserved to win the Selke this year is up for debate.
But in case you wonder about the “deciders” of this trophy, take a look at the ballot results. Not one but TWO different PHWA writers cast votes for both Warren Foegle and Dylan Holloway as top 5 defensive forwards in the entire league. Man, we must have been a defensive juggernault last year in line with Jacques Lemaires 90s Devils….
Podkolzin deciding Ekblad is dinner time is delicious.
Kane running Ekblad in the first period was probably one of my top highlights all game.
“he started it!”
Hopefully we can hammer them again on Friday. I’m surprised how much the “deep” panthers shortened their bench. 3 D over 30 min and 3 forwards under 10 min.
Florida’s deployment choices were a little strange, I agree. They have three forward lines, effectively. Their D is less imbalanced but still considerably more imbalanced when compared to the Oilers.
Oiler can take advantage of Panthers 3rd D pair.
It seemed during the LA, VGS and DAL series that the Oilers could flip a switch and carry the play. The Florida Panthers are a different animal. It was much closer and they are able to take over for stretches as well. Klingberg and Wallman are a godsend. Their ability to pass back and forth to counter the forecheck make a world a difference. I feel the Oilers can make some adjustments and that it will continue to be close. I hope the elite finishing ability of the glimmer twins is the difference. Lean in gentleman. Its there for the taking!
I feel like once OT hit, that the oilers flipped that switch on and Florida was unable to match for nearly the entire period. Hppe to see more of that in the next game!
Once Skinner gave up the 3rd goal you could tell game 4 Skinner stepped in and was not going to give up another. It was just a question of if we could beat the neutral zone maulings
— 8 shots allowed in the last period and overtime certainly augmented his performance
— Team tightened up play considerably
— Full credit for not giving up back breaker goal.
— The win though is mostly attributes to team play rather than Skinner standing g on head
Some people just don’t want to give Skinner credit when it is due. How much did the team tighten up defensively after Florida’s 3rd goal? Florida had 16 more shots in the 2nd period after than goal, including a number of high danger opportunities and he stopped all of them. Sure the Oilers completely controlled the 3rd period, but Florida got the first push in the OT, with a few bona fide scoring chances within the first 2-3 minutes. Without his steady play and a couple of very good saves, the team doesn’t get to settle in and take control. That’s 23 saves in a row, when allowing another goal likely costs your team the game.
And none of the 3 against were Skinner’s fault. Goal 1 – pucks deflects off the person who deliberately falls on him. Goal 2 – PP cross ice pass to a wide open Marchand (almost 500 goals combined regular season and playoffs). Goal 3 – breakaway goal off a rush in zone cross ice pass by the leading goal scorer in the playoffs
Skinner didn’t stand on his head, but he is one of the key reasons they won the game. The Oilers aren’t here if Skinner doesn’t come back in and play much closer to his potential since game 4 of the Vegas series. Calvin Pickard did a very good job pitching in for Skinner for those 6 games, but at his best, Skinner is the much better goaltender.
— Skinner was good enough to not let in another goal. That’s praise
— They didn’t win though or come back because goalie. They won because they suppressed shots had a balanced attack and some McDrai magic
— Skinnner did his job. He was part of win (a necessary part). Good for him.
— To me if Skinner can keep them at bay when they go wave after wave of scoring chances and breakaways when Oil loose plot or FLA step on
— Like Bob, while we finally won he kept them in the game. The Oil : their team play kept them in the game.
You refuse to address that after Arvidsson made it 3-2, Florida got 14 shots (including several high quality) over the final 16 minutes of the second period compared to Edmonton’s 6. What was balanced about that? The Oilers didn’t take control till the 3rd.
No question the team had to play much better to be able to come back and win, Skinner can’t score, but everyone on the Oilers team would likely say that they don’t win if Skinner doesn’t hold the fort for most of the 2nd period, or the start of the OT.
That is not suggesting that Skinner stole the game, or that he was the most important part of the victory, but he was a big part of it.
Not to mention the first five minutes of OT, where Skinner saved the Oilers bacon before the team got rolling again.
But I did mention in in the last phrase of the second paragraph and in the middle of the first paragraph in my first reply.
Yes!
He’s the reason we got out of the second only down by a goal. You can’t make saves on shots that don’t come. He made the saves when we needed him to early in overtime allowing his team to take over.
4-3 Total Goals EDM
3-2 5v5 Goals EDM… 2-1 Goals off rush EDM, 1-1 Goals settled 5v5
4-2 PP Opportunities EDM
Didn’t the Oilers have 3 penalties last night?
NVM, I checked the game log and see the Oiler’s 3rd penalty was 6 seconds onto their PP.
Ya it was 8 minutes for Florida and 6 mins for Edmonton. Paul Maurice math would be used to complain that Edmonton got 4 PP and they only got 2…
The way I see it, we won that game 4-1. The first goal should not have counted (Bennet being clumsy and tripping is not on Kulak, who was just standing there). And if it didn’t then the second goal doesn’t happen. Badda Boom 4-1. Power win.
Well, 3-1. The OT goal wouldn’t have been there if they had a 3-1 lead.
Emptynetter….
How in the world did Yzerman have to add to dump Walman and how did we only get him for a late round pick. Great trade.
To be clear, a late first round pick – not late round pick, right?
Big kudos to Stan Bowman who targeted this player in November and hounded Grier about him all season long.
— 8 shots in the last period and overtime is imposing your will
— FLA seemed more tired.
— Skinner just has to be Chris Osgoode not Fuhr if the Oilers can continue to impose their will and play and dictate as they have in most games they win these playoffs
— that game had everything…
— Just be a .500 team rest of season…
I’m not so sure Florida seemed more tired. They looked to be pounding away at anything wearing blue. Mind you Edmonton was dishing it out too. Neither team will have much left in the tank when this one ends. That was just game one.