This Stanley Cup Final is an exceptional display of hockey through two games. I think the split in Edmonton fairly represents the quality of play from both sides, and suspect luck has punished and rewarded both teams something close to equally.
The Oilers have some things to clean up (the penalties are going to end their hopes if they continue, and five-on-five outscoring was poor in Game 2) but there are truly good things about the effort by Edmonton through the first two games.
I will linger just a moment to express, once again, that when officials decide not to call a too-many-men penalty (as an example) because they don’t want to impact the series, they do in fact impact the series because they didn’t make an obvious call. Not calling that foul takes the game from hockey to something else. This is the NHL.
THE NUMBERS
Connor McDavid setup Leon Draisaitl on one of the prettiest plays I’ve seen in my life. He is incredible, other-worldly, and capable of doing things no other hockey player has every dreamed out on NHL ice.
He also played 35 minutes last night, and led all skaters in the category. I don’t think the Oilers benefit from running the captain 18 more minutes than the No. 4 center (Mattias Janmark) and suspect part of the problem was Adam Henrique’s playing time is just two minutes more (19 to 17) than Janmark’s last night. Janmark played 3:22 versus Aleksander Barkov, Henrique 3:03. McDavid’s optimal deployment is shy of 35 minutes. Nuge played quite a bit at center, suspect that will continue in Sunrise. He’s better on the wing, but the absence of alternatives clears the mind.
I thought Stuart Skinner had a strong game, and the OT GA isn’t a reason to rain down blows on the goalie nor Evan Bouchard. It was luck, and there has been good and bad for Edmonton in this series. The most you can say on that play is all involved were exhausted, and only big Leon had the wheels to make a play. Good on him; this series was always going to be a long one and now it’s best of five.
I wasn’t a fan of Edmonton’s five-on-five play last night. The retrievals and breakouts were not strong for much of the game, and the second period was rancid for the second game in a row. That said, there is much to be delighted about, not the least of which is this fact: The 2025 SCF is one of the best I’ve ever seen through two games.
This is NHL hockey at its best, even with the outrageous filth of the Panthers and the officials who have somehow settled on the addled idea of not calling clear penalties in an effort to ‘let them play’ at five-on-five.
Maybe guys on PEDs shouldn’t get to just slot back in.
Walman/Klingberg are 6-6 goals and 56% expected goals in 196 minutes – playoffs.
Nurse/Walman are 8-2 goals and 62% expected goals in 105 minutes – regular season.
I think Nurse/Walman is worth a real look and, lets not forget, Kulak/Bouchard are 7-1 goals and 65% expected goals in 130 playoff minutes.
It really seems like the following is obvious:
Kulak/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Klingberg
Good post. Thanks OP!
Well Holloway must be watching the playoffs as he fired his agent today, I’m willing to bet that he thought the offer sheet would get matched
Haha, that warms my heart
Well it’s gonna warm your heart more to find out who his new agent is.
Jeff Jackson?
His partner, Judd Moldaver who took over when Jackson joined Oil
Interesting, sounds like we will need to send a 2nd round draft pick to both Calgary and Boston if there is some truth to this.
What is the plan as a fan obviously will take the split. Do we go with Pickard for game 4 if we get out goalied in game three?
Was out all day with baseball, football and hockey and just got to reading the comments. Can’t wait to catch the Bakersfield Condors on Monday night with all the players who should be sitting after last nights double OT loss.
I loathe having this thought but someone needs to hobble/put Bennett out. Wipe that smug look off his face. Even if it means risking a 5 minute major.
Skinner should just fall on Bennett the next time he pulls his stunt.
Fall on his head or ankle or something…
Nurse has a good toe tap. Maybe that is the play
It would also solve a problem of how to sit Nurse, should he be suspended this time 🤔
NCAA players can now be paid…but it’s complicated.
https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/45469494/ncaa-settlement-done-divide-spoils
Bouchard has been excellent this post season, he’s added PK1 duties onto his plate and hasn’t looked out of place doing so.
He wasn’t able to hold the line and a very good Panthers team won in overtime of the Stanley cup finals.
Oilers in 5.
Trent Frederic seems like a nice young man. But, he was brought here to add some physicality. No push back at all on Bennet when required to do so. As was said last night, his hands are not sprained so damn well use them already.
Play J.Skinner next game, at least he can put up points.
Also, resign Frederic only for max $1.8 x 2. If he wants more then have fun making new friends somewhere else.
I’m furious. Lansky promised me a sweep on the Lowdown. I want my money back.
Lmao should of bet on whole series not the just 4-0. Lol
Money part in jest, as I do not bet. But still it made for interesting seconds of radio. I wonder if Lansky’s sweep prediction will make it into his book.
Well i did put some money down.
Game 4 4-0 series @ 250 in = 3000 back
Game 5 4-1 series @ 250 in = 1750 back
Game 6 4-2 series @ 250 in = 1625 back
Game 7 4-3 series @ 200 in = 1182.50 back
Total in 950. So I hope my prediction comes true and we win the cup in game 5.
But if goes to 7 and they win i wont complain.
Please lord I pray. I play in oiler colors ever day. #93 + #4 (hall but gone now ) = #97 mcdavid sensation. This was the prayer I said on the day of 2015 draft early am on the lowetide page. Next day LT posted my prayer top of center of the page. I was cool moment
Last year was magical🪄✨️but this surgical🔪
Friedman mentioning the Oilers are looking on re-signing Frederic.
I’m happy to bring him back but it would be a pay cut over his current $2.3MM.
I know he’s playing hurt and he’s likely got more to give but he also had 8 goals and 15 points in 57 games with Boston this season.
If he’s willing to sign at, or under, $2MM, OK but I wouldn’t be happy with more and, with him being a UFA…..
So a big good skating top 5 tough guy that has offense and defense, 27 YO, a rare unicorn like Kane, on a low contract, who everyone knows is hampered with an injury that will be healed by camp, is going to take a pay cut?
He doesn’t need to do that. A guy like Brown, J Skinner, Perry etc might have to, but the cap is also taking a jump which will raise all salaries. If they sign Frederic, it might be the less defensively reliable Kane and his 5M on the block. Fred at the projected 3-3.5 saves 1.5 – 2 M. Less offense, not also turning 34
Freddy can chase bigger $ elsewhere but it won’t be for a team that has as good of a chance to win, that’s for sure. If he wants to win a cup, perhaps a second with some luck in the next week or two, then his best bet is to take a haircut on the max $$ he could make. Otherwise he ends up playing on a middling at best team looking for the next Lucic like the Oilers of a decade ago.
No, I’m not saying that he will take a pay cut – I am saying that I wouldn’t re-sign him if he doesn’t.
I don’t agree with your assessment of the player. I know he’s injured but I haven’t seen good skating, I haven’t seen him that tough and I haven’t seen any offence. Lets not forget, he wasn’t bringing any offence in Boston before he was hurt either.
I know he had a couple decent goal scoring years approaching 20 goals and I’m sure he can get back to that level but, for me, his year on the whole, pre and post trade/injury, isn’t a player I’d pay over $2MM.
Let me ask, if this player was never an Oiler and performed how he has this season on Boston and then Florida (not the Oilers) in the playoffs – would you have any desire to sign him anywhere near $3.5M.
Kane is superior to Frederic in nearly all aspects, sure Frederic doesn’t give up much but that goes with providing absolutely nothing offensively while being far less of a physical presence then Kane on his worse of days.
I agree with your assessment and wouldnt offer Frederic anything over 2 mil as it stands.
Let him walk.
High ankle sprain you should know. Leon looked like a normal player with this injury and Frederic is no Leon.
Leon had 17 points in 5 games against the flames with his high ankle sprain………..
I acknowledge he’s playing through injury and I stand by everything I state in my post. He was having a bad year prior to injury (8G/15P in 53 games) and, if he was never an Oiler this season, noone would even think about signing him as a UFA for near $3MM I wouldn’t think.
I agree I thought we would see more dirt out of him. I think he’s trying to play a defensive structure game that his new coach is asking him to be his primary objective. I think he’s scared to take a penalty and he’s not comfortable with what he can get away with. As for offensive side of things a half a step slow can mean all the diffence plus all it’s takes is 1 or 2 goals to get a players mojo back
I agree he’s been playing a solid defensive game – he’s responsible out there and I like alot of what he does. Of course, the game he is playing is a $1MM fourth line type player (a no event winger with no special teams impact). I know he’s got more to give but he hasn’t shown it as an Oiler and was having a shit season prior to being traded. The Oilers are not the team that should pay for what he brought a couple seasons ago in Boston and could potentially provide again.
Definitely a place for people to share their thoughts. I’m hoping the coaching staff makes some slight tinkering myself. But I must say that I sincerely hope the team doesn’t spend the next 3 days catastrophizing like some of the fanbase, and remains productive.
1 win in up to 3 tries in Florida and a game 5 win at home, and we have an incredible game 7 back in Edmonton. That is very doable, and there are plenty of reasons to think they can do better than that
This fanbase has catastrophized everything all year long.
Every loss to a non-elite team was catastrophized. Every blow lead. Every 2-goal deficit.
Everything all year long.
Lose a playoff game after winning six in row – end of world.
The best fan base in the world! Wouldn’t have it any other way.
I don’t read anything here about the loss is the end of the world?
Every goal against was catastrophized in my lunatic mind
I don’t think they’ll catastrophize. I think they know they lost their discipline and they’ve done it before…and they know how to fix it. They are the better team and they know it. That’s not to say that Florida can’t put them off their game and take the series, but it’s within the Oilers’ power to not let that happen.
I want pickered in the net the 2 games. Change to change is a good thing.
It would take courage to start a career back-up who’s 6W-0L in the next game.
I guess im the only one who has the courage. The thing is resets seem to work this post season. And I rather try now then be in a must win game. Just my opinion
Personally, I think an established rotation right from the start could be the way.
The narrative has been set they are either sinking or swimming with Skinner. Even though Pickard has been the better goalie on the most important stat “winning” If healthy Pickard deserves a start in Florida.
You have no skin in the game. The courage you have to post who you’d like to see in net after the established starter won 5 games in a row and lost in double OT is nothing compared to the decision the coaching staff has to make.
I was not impressed by the Oilers last night at all. Too many risky plays and not enough physicality. They were time and time again beat at 50 50 puck battles and along the boards. (Even when they outnumbered teir opponents) The breakouts were brutal, slow and ugly. It was not just one or two players. It was entire defence. Ekholm looked half of himself. Nurse reaction times were so slow it looked as though he was moving backward. Bouchard was just bad…Skinner although had a decent game did quite a lot of flopping and was not sharp. Like, use your stick man to protect the five hole…the first and second lines were just ok, but the third and forth were being beat consistently. The allowance of breakaways was unacceptable. Especially on the PP. How are they allowing breakaways with 5 men to 4? Speaking of PP, it was very disappointing as well. That last PP in the third especially poor. Nobody in sync and way way way too slow puck movement with way too many hope passes. Even the entries sucked. Faceoffs need a drastic improvement!
That all said, get it together boys and you will be ok. We all know how tuned in they can be, but last night was not it. Need the split in Florida now. Go Oilers!
I know the Bouchard apologists won’t like it, but I’m not buying the Bouchard is touched by God after that game. Four goals is plenty to win a game in the NHL, and for the second year in a row, Bouchard cost us game 2 of the SCF series and ultimately the Stanley Cup last year. Let’s hope this year is different.
Bouchard’s pass(!) to Rodrigues in the slot last year while under zero pressure sealed game two for the Panthers. He also did this in game 1 creating a 2v1 down low that was a certain goal before Skinner bailed him out with a spectacular save on the pass across the crease, and everyone forgot about the blunder shortly thereafter.
This year’s game 2 was far more egregious. Once again, this is a peewee level defending concept. As a defender, you have to always be aware of likely being the last man back. So if you are at the blueline in the ozone and there is a 50:50 puck, you CANNOT assume that your team is going to get possession. You have to back off the line unless you have backup from the weakside defender, and no other members of the opposition breaking out at the center of the ice that might create a 2v1. In this case, not only is there a 50:50 puck, but there is also Marchand breaking out behind Bouchard. Two critical cues to back off the line and be ready to defend. Bouchard misses both cues and Marchand is on a breakaway.
Ok, maybe Bouchard is still a rookie-like player for many people (after a decade) and needs to learn lessons that he should have learned many years ago in youth hockey, so we allow him to eat this shit sandwich he made for himself knowing that he will never let that happen again.
GWG, same play, same players, same result. Inexcusable in any NHL game, let alone the SCF. I haven’t seen anything that absurd since Patrik Stefan on Dallas skated the puck to an open net and bobbled it with 7 seconds left allowing Bergeron to Stoll, to Smyth, to Hemsky for the game tying goal.
Is he not reflecting on his mistakes? Does he not care? Is his brain turned off? Is he too slow at processing the game to recognize the problem? I don’t understand how we think a guy like this deserves so much money when he comes from the Barrie family of defense. Granted, many thought we should sign Barrie for a massive multimillion dollar contract, but he ended up not getting multimillions from anyone and faded into obscurity, so maybe we are bad at valuing dmen who rack up ridiculous point totals playing with McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH.
I will agree with this: Bouchard is a magician with the puck on his stick. I don’t think we have ever had a dman that can hit the net so accurately with a slapper or wrist shot like he can. It’s ridiculous. He is consistent and gets great results. Sometimes I wish he would shoot more on the PP because it’s so good. He also has great instincts to find space in the ozone on the PP and create space for others. There is lots of value there on the offensive side, but we are at a point where the games are coming down to trying to outscore Bouchard’s mistakes.
The painful thing is that the offensive skills are rare and unique. They are not easily taught and they are not simple to acquire. The defensive awareness and skill is much easier to learn and understand. He should have had it coached into him over a decade ago by one of the many coaches that he has had. Maybe they have all tried and it hasn’t registered for some reason.
This game was the Oilers to win. I really hope this game 2 loss doesn’t hurt us like it did last year. I would reduce Bouchard’s minutes. We can’t afford the risk of having him out there as often as he plays. You can quote all the stats you want about chances for and against with Ekholm backing him up on some of his blunders, but the problem is that the stats wash out the severity of the opportunities Bouchard is giving the opposition. Just one of those a game can be deadly and cost us the game and the championship. He is giving up the closest thing to sure goal opportunities, and the Panthers are targeting him knowing how weak he is.
I’m not an apologist but also aware that what he brings is hard to replace. I agree that there are some things you just don’t do, if you want to see ultimate goal or be considered at the top of the game. There is a reason he was left off the 4 nations despite an historic playoffs last season
I have to wonder what coaching has to play into this, something we don’t often mention. Maurice obviously has the Panthers playing a very dialed in structure that the players adhere to. KK has tightened things up, but Coffey has asked the D to make plays, right from his start. Maybe there is more input needed for Bouch on tactics and reading the ice, or maybe he’s one of Struddy’s ‘never will get it’ crowd. I hope not
He might be a guy that plays a big role in winning a championship, but if it’s at the cost of two not being won you have to ask if the upcoming cap hit is worth it, or having cap for two quality D instead
Being +2 doesn’t offset mistakes at key moments that loses games, just like making 40 saves doesn’t offset giving up a weak game loser. These things being what separates the greats from the goods or very goods. You can’t be the champ without great play at key moments
100%. Very poor critical reads , but more than that looked like a pre-scouted play from the Panthers.
Literal all-time historic playoff producer for three years that has provided elite level 2-way play for 13-14 games this playoffs (and about 23 last playoffs) and, in a game where he materially contributes to 3 goals in the first period, due to a couple meh defensive plays, not even egregious or primary culpable on the goals, he’s “cost the team the Stanley Cup”.
Wild stuff!
Honest question, how hard was it to have this post drafted 5 weeks ago an have to wait so long for him to not be elite defensively in order to post it?
I know, I know. Bouchard has amazing stats. He also plays a lot of his minutes with the two best players in the entire league.
Like I said, I don’t doubt his offensive skills. They are top tier. But that doesn’t matter if he surrenders opportunities like the ones last night for which he is almost solely responsible. McDavid and Drai goals happen just the same without Bouchard touching it occasionally between.
Your last paragraph is disrespectful and I doubt you would say that to my face if we met in person. I actually believe that we have, but you don’t realize it. You have revealed enough info over the years for me to be pretty sure who you are.
I welcome debate, but I believe that your last paragraph has no place in a mature discussion forum.
AWAY from BOTH McDavid and Drai in these playoffs:
TOI: 100:27
Goals: 8-5
Expected goals: 64.39%
This is also seen in his number in the regular season and in other years. That is a lazy narrative and the implication is not based in fact.
Not to mention, his stats aren’t just amazing, they are all-time historic – with a real sample size.
The opportunities surrendered last night were also joint culpability, in particular the OT goal. What you also are intentionally and dishonestly “forgetting” is that he hasn’t had a game where is defensive issues could even remotely be discussed as an issue since game 2 vs. LA.
My goodness he has been elite 2-way for like 13 straight games.
That last sentence isn’t even worth responding to – to discount his impact on the offensive production of this team is just dishonest.
I can’t control how you feel but its a legit question – the player has been nothing but elite 2-ways and without a doubt the best playoff d-man in the NHL. He hasn’t had even close to a poor defensive game for at least 10 straight games.
I agree with Ashley, and find that often you are obsessive, rude and intolerant. And you can not take a hint. Even when it comes directly from Lowetide.
Well said.
.
Is it apologist to note:
Bouchard had a hand in all three GF in the first period.
The only other GF was Perry’s amazing shot while being mugged by a Panther in the dying seconds of the 3rd.
It’s rich to start your rant saying four goals is enough to win and Bouchard cost the game. There’s not 4 goals without Bouchard. There is no OT without Bouchard.
(edits kept losing bullet points…trying numbered list…)
For that to be true, Bouchard would have to be the sole contributor to those three goals just as he was the almost the entire contributor to the two goals against. I tried to head this argument off at the pass in the post, but alas, it is being made nonetheless.
Does it feel good pouncing on the Oilers best D after the entire team had a rough game playing an excellent team and still going to double OT and almost winning?
Key plays in key moments are absolutely necessary to win it all and Bouchard has had many of those moments, both offensively and defensively, throughout the playoffs. Has he had some blunders? Yes. Name a single player in the NHL who has had a perfect playoff. I’ll wait.
There’s also an element of luck in some of these plays that your narrative ignores. Bouchard has shown over and over that he has an elite ability to keep the puck in the zone. If he backed off every time, the Oilers might not still be playing.
Yes, I didn’t mean to imply that he has not played well at times. My point is that to be considered great, there are some basic requirements, especially from a dman. Making that mistake in the SCF is pretty egregious for a dman. Making it twice is inexcusable. I’ve honestly never seen it in over four decades of watching.
One can debate how egregious the mistake he made was and, yes, it is highly debatable, however, even if there was agreement that is was egregious, the original post and the narrative ignores that, since game 3 of the first round, Bouchard has played elite high end 2-way defence with all but no major mistakes (every player makes some mistakes every game) and has proven, year over year over year, to not only be the best playoff d-man in the league, but bordering on being included as an all time great – his production is indeed historic and one can argue the more subject “defensive play”.
And then there’s Nurse.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/oilers-panthers-stanley-cup-playoffs-when-is-next-game-3
Nurse played the most at 5 on 5 last night and was on the ice for zero goals against.
Cult of hockey counted 8 mistakes for Nurse on Grade A shots against last night. And they love Darnell Nurse. They are calling for the pairing to be broken up.
The problems with the Nurse-Kulak pairing were highlighted in the last Curlock review:
Nurse needs to play with a right shooting D. Either Nurse-Walman, or Nurse-Stecher. Alternatively, you sit Nurse and go Kulak-Stecher as the third pairing. Both the expected goals stats and the eye test support these moves at this time. He can’t move the puck out and struggles with the aggressive forecheck.
Removing Nurse is a logical solution. Let Kulak play his natural side, insert a natural right-shooting D (Stecher) who can make a play. Coffey won’t do it. But it makes sense.
Here are the on-ice stats over the 2025 Finals.
The counter to this, is that by Goals, everything with Nurse is fine, so you should just leave everything alone.
See, my issue is that you start your comment by throwing an insult at any who have a different view. Do you think you will bring people around by calling them an “apologist”?
Your not going to replace Bouchard. You lose him, your not getting some wonderful RHD without flaws back. All your left with is a big giant hole.
Are we even here without Bouch?
“Apologist” is not an insult, when you are describing a perspective where Bouchard’s “single events” aren’t a problem: even when they occur in duplicate and are clearly pre-scouted. Ashley shows a dialectical analysis of Bouchard above. It’s too bad that not everyone can handle the discussion.
I am going to say this: I kinda of took the word apologist to be considered insulting. What I didn’t realize is that the term just described someone who defends a person (or other) that is being criticised etc. apologist is an apt word Ashley used.
So I would like to retract my previous comment.
The problem with the argument is stating the mistake on the goal was as bad as Patrick Stefan’s EN gaffe. This is a wild take. Ekholm missed the net wide, mistake 1. Then the puck hit the stantion, if that doesn’t happen Bouchards pinch is perfectly timed.
Oilers aren’t in the finals without Bouchard. All players make mistakes, especially the players that are on the ice more and are the teams play makers. Watch hilights from the 1990’s Devils and no one coughed up the puck more than Niedermayer. It was because he always had the puck and was the guy making plays. It sounds like your Oiler fandom has a long history and goes back to the 1980’s. What is your take on Paul Coffey, did he help the Oilers win the first 3 cups or was he riding on Gretzky’s coat tail? Ekholm had a bad read on the far side and should have been fading back as soon as he saw that Marchand was in a position to make a jail break on the play.
Bennett-Tkachuk-Marchand are masters on how to do anything it takes to win. They have figured out the Refs and the Cadbury Secret. They stand in front of the goalie and flop onto him If they feel any contact. This can result in drawing a penalty or even a goal very rarely do they take a penalty. You’ll never hear the media say a thing because? Ask yourself why? The Panthers are bending the rules perfectly you haven’t seen anything yet wait till game 3-4.
No they haven’t. They and the whole team KNOW that they can do 100 infractions and won’t be short handed more than 4-5 times and in return they will get 4-5 power plays to even it out. They are the HEEL (wrestling term) of the NHL and the Oil are the babyface and the NHL reffereing is equivalent to that of the WWE. Pretty pathetic when you think about it…
If the Panthers win 3 days later the media will have all these articles on how Bennett-Tkachuk-Marchand suckered in the Refs. You will hear nothing from the media now our own Media sees Pickard injured and run over on several occasions same goes for Skinner but nothing said. It’s fuking so obvious they wait for contact and try to hurt the goalie falling on him yet if a Oiler cross-checks them it’s a penalty. Watch Ekbald and the rest of the Mauirice gang hack-slash-cross-check anyone in front of their net.
Agreed. They are actually making a mockery of the sport and the league.
I think with the frequency that they do dirty sh*t, it gets normalized somewhat. Refs are no way gonna this stuff because of its frequency. I think Oilers need to just stick to the things they do best and not try to be Florida.
So what’s the difference between Hertl accidentally falling on a 6W-0L and injuring Pickard with the Bennet Goal-Bennett penalty? The difference was Skinner rolling around like he was shot. If Pickard would of withered on the ice on the Hertl play he would of recieved a penalty. Marchand-Tkachuk-Bennett know exactly how to work the Refs.
Any potential referees designated for the next set of games will all have watched both Panthers and Oilers in detail.
I have to think that Bennett is front and center, his antics fully exposed. Same with every player.
I also want to think that because of this focus and preparation by any incoming refs, if the Oilers can be disciplined, the tide will turn in their favor.
is this a reasonable assumption?
If Oilers would of had too many men on the ice and won the first 3 stories on Sportsnet and TSN would be about how we cheated the hockey gods. I thought they would never shut-up about the Kulak to close to call play how we got the break of a lifetime with the non penalty.
My theory is, outside of an automatic (which I thought included too many men but will have to revise that now), there was ~0 chance the refs were going to risk having Fla lose another OT game on an Oilers PPO. And if that’s actually true it’s pretty sad.
In their determination to not influence the outcome they influence the outcome. Irony. Absurdity. It really is like WWF, in that the refs are part of the script. In the case of WWF they conveniently got distracted and shenanigans ensued. An NHL ref must stare right at shenanigans and rationalize a way to discount what is happening before their eyes.
And right after that we got a high sticking penalty for Ratenen’s own stick hitting himself in the face. Doesn’t matter if it was lifted by another player , you have to be in control of your own stick.
Kevin Weekes
@KevinWeekes
KK went away from what worked – rolling the 4 lines. He needs to be better. Also, who ever is coaching the PP please tell Bouch to take care as Marchand is just waiting to break out. This essentially gives us a 4 on 3 so deal with it by not using Bouch if Marchand is even close.
This result is on KK and the PP. Sorry but if you are even with 6 power plays and the other team is +1 you will probably lose. Need to get that sorted.
Great game by Skinner!
It’s true that Marchand will put himself in good positions given the opportunity
but not using bouch on pp is not the play
True, but you can use it to your advantage if you outnumber them low in the zone.
We played our depth more than they did again. Only 2 forwards under 10 minutes of ice time were Panthers. Lowest ice time for a D was Nate Schmidt.
And if there’s ever a time in the season you can make a case for running your top players into the ground it’s gotta be the SCF.
Absolutely have to fix that PP. 1/6 with a shortie against is the difference in a 5-4 game.
If you don’t want to spend the entire game defending in your own end against the Florida forecheck the D have to try and hold the line. Florida does it all game every game. Forwards need to cover. The GWG Leon actually got back and stopped any shot from happening but the puck still managed to slide under Skinner. Very unfortunate break but holding the line and keeping in ozone is the way to go…
It didn’t need to be a long series. No way that game shouldn’t have been 5-2 5 minutes into the second and you put it to bed. The Oilers are the better team. They drifted away from an execution game and it cost them. Even then they almost pulled it out. Not sure why Knoblauch abandoned the way he was playing his lines. Klingberg struggled, which was tough. They haven’t been as good since Nurse-Kulak became a thing. Frederic played maybe 2 good shifts. Those last 2 things need to change.
I agree with the Kulak and Frederic out, Stetcher and Skinner in. It’s not Kulak’s fault, he’s playing his off side. It’s a real detriment to his overall play. We have been the better team after almost 9 periods and I believe that the loss is more a result of us defeating ourselves.
Looking through NTS, I think pulling Kulak for Stecher may not be the play. Nurse likely the one that deserves to sit, but we know that won’t happen. Kulak on his correct side is likely playing better than Nurse. Is Walman stronger on his off side than Kulak? Klingberg struggled and its reasonable to think he may need a rest.
I agree, I was operating on the assumption that they would never have the stones to sit Nurse.
Frederic isn’t contributing to the forecheck. I wonder about him as 4th line centre, Janmark can’t defend and is a better forechecker. Would really like Skinner in the lineup but we need to continue (or return to) pounding their D on the forecheck. Not sure who comes out, Frederic should on merit but theoretically he provides size and toughness. Need to roll the lines more and use McDrai more selectively.
Nurse-Kulak can’t get out of their zone against a forecheck. Stecher was solid with Nurse, Walman-Kling are fading a bit but subbing Klingberg still leaves us with too many lefties.
Also need to reduce Perry’s ice time a bit 5v5. Wouldn’t mind seeing RV with some shifts with 97 to give him a line-mate with some pace.
The thing is, Frederic isn’t actually providing toughness as he can’t make it to the plays.
He’s also playing with guys who are generating chances for him and is unable to finish.
Gotta come out of the lineup.
Probably that’s the play. Still not sure about how to handle the D.
We need Janmark and Brown to show up and Kapanen to find consistency. Otherwise I’d love more fresh legs at the bottom of the lineup. It won’t happen as I don’t think he’s been with the main group at all, but I’d have time for Savoie in a bottom 6 role, he’s a strong forechecker and fast.
Stealing / recycling an idea someone mentioned before the series, and assuming Walman is more comfortable with a RD assignment, I’d like to see these pairings:
Kulak – Bouchard
Ekholm – Klingberg
Nurse – Walman
I’ve been saying it since Ek came in for Stech – the key is Nurse/Walman – great results in over 100 regular season minutes.
Does that supersede the great results of Walman-Klingberg in the playoffs?
Walman/Klingberg are 6-6 goals and 56% expected goals in 196 minutes – playoffs.
Nurse/Walman are 8-2 goals and 62% expected goals in 105 minutes – regular season.
I think Nurse/Walman is worth a real look and, lets not forget, Kulak/Bouchard are 7-1 goals and 65% expected goals in 130 playoff minutes.
It really seems like the following is obvious:
Kulak/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Klingberg
Well the future $10 million dollar D man gave one game away.
Negative variance often bites at the worst time.
Marchand would have had the same breakaway shorthanded in the first game if Nuge had not made a great play along the wall on this strong side (that led to the Draisaitl goal). So in this game Florida forced Nuge to make that same play on his weak side, but Nuge failed this time, and Bouchard was out of position to defend Marchand both times. And he was again on Marchand’s first goal last night. How many times is Bouchard going to let Marchand sneak behind him this series? The Panthers clearly believe they can trap Nugent-Hopkins and Bouchard high on the boards on the PK.
McDavid went was the 3rd forward to go low on the winning goal against (mistake), when Draisaitl passed low to high to Ekholm. Ekholm shot wide on the wrong side (mistake), and Bouchard held the blue line when he knew he had no support (mistake), and then chased like a hobbled old man.
Bouchard also let Tkachuk get to the front of the net easily to screen Skinner on the Kulikov goal, when he could have easily blocked Tkachuk’s path to the front of the net.
Has there ever been a lazier defenseman not chasing a breakaway against that he was responsible for than Bouchard?
Perhaps it was Ekholm that “gave the game away” with his wild shot that missed the net far side?
Perhaps it should be acknowledged that Bouchard had good position on the puck coming around the rim but it took a fortuitous bounce off the boards right to Lundell?
Of course, since Drai had done a great job to get to Marchand and make a play on him, the proper play by Bouchard was as he did, hold up to ensure he’s net front for the rebound.
Leon didn’t allow Marchand to get a shot off. But somehow the puck still mysteriously found its way past Skinner. That’s hockey.
If that was Pickard you would be screaming for a goaltender change. The numbers don’t lie Pickard 6W-0L Skinner 7W-5L
I like bouch on the pk but that’s a lot of minutes being logged
maybe we need to even out the mins
Thank god you don’t have any say in managing the Oilers. We’d be the Peter Chiarelli Oilers all over again.
No more Strome for Spooner type trades please.
Bouchard has had some defensive lapses. Barkov and Ekblad got walked too, Barkov is -5 in the series. Bouchard has 4 pts and a +2.
Our weak side D need to do a better job supporting the middle of the ice on that play. Bouchard generates a lot of zone time and offence because he is extremely good at pinching in. Now in that case Ekholm was in zone due to his shot, and there was a bad bounce on a missed shot. Bouchard could have recognized the risk better. Bad bounce, and then a lucky goal after Drai made a great backcheck. Hockey.
Bouchard was far from the worst Oiler defenseman on the ice last night.
This. If Nurse was carrying the weight he should game in and out, there would be less pressure on the other pairs. I don’t see how you don’t play Stecher, who is better at RD than Kulak. I like BK but to my eye he has been having a rough time. That doesn’t always show up in GF/GA which does matter, but it does affect momentum which is really important in a final series in game. The team feeds off good play and takes on wobble if there is too much struggling
The fact that you only make these kinds of posts about Bouchard after a game where he may not have had the best effort defensively says more about you than it does Bouchard.
This is the correct read of both of Marchand’s goals. 100%
Oh Godot, where have you been hiding….biting your lip waiting for the chance to make this post.
Nurse resetting behind the net never works. He just doesn’t have the passing ability
That is never the move in the modern NHL. Possession and immediate transition to moving the puck up ice is critical to maintain possession. Every team in the NHL has a well honed defensive structure for a team breaking out from behind the net. Letting them set up means a turnover 3 seconds later virtually 100% of the time.
Nurse and Bouchard have to get that out of their game. It was popular in the 80s and early 90s, but no teams do that anymore because of the difficulty maintaining possession.
I don’t think he processes fast enough, margins are small especially now
These are two evenly matched teams of assholes and asshats.
I’m not sure I’ll ever get over Frederic not going postal on Bennett. I get it, high ankle sprain. But his ankle isn’t attached to his fists or mouth. This is the guy earlier in the season running around like a psychopath throwing nucks with Corey Perry.
Scratch him, dress Skinner.
Might be because the game was tight and didn’t want to put the Oilers on a PK.
At worse it would be offsetting penalties, Bennett was going to the box for 2, easily could of added 5 more mins to it, while also sending him to the back for repairs of his face being rearranged.
I will say that Frederic has been quite disappointing as an acquisition. That isn’t all his fault because we has injured when we traded for him and he only played 1 game before the playoffs but I feel that they really needed a RHC more than a big non-scoring winger. That said, I think a healthy Frederic would be a big difference maker for this team.
Imo Frederic should be playing center if he’s in the line up. I get he’s got a bummed leg, but it isn’t attached to his arms and mouth. As you’ve stated he’s a non-scoring winger, he’s meant to deter the opposing team’s asshattery, and his attempt of that last night was the most half hearted attempt I’ve seen. I’m not particularly pleased with Ekholm either, stop crying to the ref, nut up and respond with violence.
Oilers need to start faking every filthy play Florida does. If Bouchard hits the ice in withering pain after the Bennett slash it’s probably a 5 minute major with a attempt to injure. How bad do the Oilers want it? McDavid and Leon should flop when they are getting mugged. Tkachuk-Marchand-Bennett know exactly when to embellish and are professionals at it. Leon-Connor-Bouchard better figure this out NOW or we are crying about the 4th line winger and 6th defenceman all Summer.
Embellishment is a penalty the officials should call every time and it’s certainly not professional behavior. Give your head a shake.
They took Rodrique off on a Stecher last year to get the 5 minute major and magically he’s playing the next shift. If you can’t see the Panthers are working the Refs to their style of game then so be it. Be prepared for at least a couple of flops by Marchand-Bennett-Tkachuk that will draw a penalty at a critical time. Try listening to someone other than Hrudey you might learn something about embellishing while fooling the Refs.
So, does that make it right?
The issue isn’t that they can’t, the post was about they shouldn’t. The fans want to watch hockey not the NBA or soccer.
Players being willing to constantly do that make the game less fun. We’ve had the luxury of having players like Ryan Smyth play right after losing teeth with a puck to the face or playing the Worlds with basically a broken leg, that’s the type of players we want to see watch.
I get that but what’s your reply when Florida is skating around with the Cup because they were willing to try every trick in the book. No one remembers 2nd place. Oilers better dummy up quick they can’t allow Maurice and company to set the pace of the game playing the Refs like a fiddle.
The Oilers have had trouble breaking the puck out clean and have turned the puck over near the defensive blueline quite a bit.
I am not smart enough to know exactly what the Panthers are going in this area but I do believe that coach Knob and his staff are.
We do know that, under coach Knob, the Oilers almost always get better as the series go on. I think quite a bit of that is coaching- small structure adjustments as well as “finding the optimal lines for the series”.
If one wants to take a glass half full approach, one would note that, through 2 games, the series has basically been a saw-off. Both teams being the better team for stretches of each game. In fact, I would say the Oilers have been the better team for most of each of the 1st two games.
Take that, along with the history of the Oilers getting materially better as series go on and I think the team remains in good shape.
I have little doubt they’ll get at least one of the next two games in Florida, quite possibly two.
No doubt we don’t want to run the guy ragged but, at the same time, there are two full days off before the next game and then two full days off (with no travel) before the game after that.
In fact, if the series goes 7 games, there is only one game left where they don’t have 2 full non-game days in between.
While that is true…rest and recuperation also apply to the Panthers.
Barkov led all Florida forward in TOI last night with 30:30.
Meanwhile, the third line all topped 22 minutes and of course were very effective with a total of 2 goals and 5 points.
It all adds up.
That’s nice – the blog post, and my response, was about McDavid’s ice time.
Barkov also led all Panthers with a -3. And is -9 in his last 4 games going back to the CAR series. Injured? Or just not able to handle the top of the Oilers lineup when they are healthy?
The first game the Oilers rolled more lines and had more balanced ice times, it flipped in game 2. That third line has been great, for sure. Flip side is the top two lines haven’t looked very dangerous.
We shouldn’t be complaining about the reffing since we just recieved home cooking officiating. If Skinner doesn’t fake a injury we probably get the minor for cross-checking Bennett into Skinner. Tell me the difference between that play and the Bennett goal.
Maybe you should take another look at the replay.
Watch the Bennett goal right next to the Bennett penalty. What’s the difference? Bennett is flopping on Skinner when he feels any contact. Hill ( Vegas) took things into his own hands when it came to Hyman and Perry. It didn’t work but I would like Skinner to clear his crease with a couple of chops to Bennett ankles. We are sure missing Hyman in a series of this magnitude.
Bennett flops even when there is no contact, he’s like the little boy that cried wolf, finally the refs are seeing Sam Bennett for what he is. He’s making fools of the refs and no doubt they should be embarrassed.
Yeah, they sure miss Hyman.
So why didn’t he get a flop when Bouchard barley touched him and he went down in a heap. If he does it 7-8 times and the one or 2 times it works at a critical time with him and Tkachuk laughing about it. We are about to see some home cooking reffing the Panthers know if they egg on Kane-Nurse they will instantly get a penalty.
Florida dictated the reffing of the first 2 games they were happy to trade penalties with our weak PK and our over passing on our PP. By the midpoint of the game the Refs abandon the whistles and it’s prison rules from there on. The slash by Bennett in front of the world showed that NHL is closer to WWF then we think.
The NHL has the worst referees of any of the major or secondary major sports, and it is not even close.
Tim Peel exposed the entertainment value of an NHL officials a few years ago.
The game is obviously managed by these four guys, and that is a shame. It is a culture.
The NHL has 32 white, 30- 50 ish years old males, 7 from American and 25 from Canada. The gene pool is way too small to produce quality.
The truth is the youth sports system has not build enough quality officials. With turnover of 70% of amateur officials each year, we can’t expect to develop officials, the focus is on player development.
Players that can’t make a living playing, take up the profession of refereeing between the age of 19-24 and that subset is too small to produce quality.
Then the NHL only selects white Americans and Canadians males. That subset is too small to produce quality.
Added to all this the declining youth hockey rates, and the changing demographics for North American, the subset that traditional become hockey official is too small to produce quality.
The 200 hockey decision makers, have not invested in technology to help beyond an iPad at ice surface and a land line to a war room. That sunset is too small to produce quality.
The 100 hockey pundits has all agreed that that excuses and lack of real time accountability is to be supported with well worn repeated phases like it is a tough job, it is a fast game, these guys are the best in the business.
NHL Edge provides LOTS of data to better understand the game. The players and coaches face lots of criticisms based on these published stats. Why don’t the games officials have the same scrutiny?
Weird.
White is the problem, apparently.
Not to fight, but to be clear, the statement above does not reflect the intention of my point.
My point is around the changing Canadian demographics and the opportunty to select from more potential referee candidates.
I read a few year ago that they have changed recruiting from bringing up amateur refs to using former players and the like. Which is a disincentive to trying to rise through the ranks and learning the craft
The problem, according to what I’ve heard, is a very insular NHL officiating dept that rewards connections rather than ability. It’s run as a virtual fiefdom by a couple guys, and the only way to make it is to have someone already in the dept going to bat for you. Too many NHL officials start their officiating careers at an NHL rookie camp, instead of grinding through the CHL/Jr A leagues like the players. It leads to a lack of game experience. You’re supposed to want the best, not the best connected.
Lots of hockey played over 2 games. Will be interesting to see if either team inserts fresh legs. The Panthers had more jump last night than the Oilers, which was surprising. Remember how many post there were after game 1 about how little the Panthers 4th line and 3rd pairing played in comparison to the Oilers?
Maybe JSkinner will be inserted, but he doesn’t bring speed, tenacity or strong board play.
Nurse and Kulak haven’t been good. I’d replace Kulak with Stecher for Game 3.
Stecher’s size might be a factor against Florida.
They needed finishing last night, not board play.
Kulak was 2nd on the team for 5 on 5 TOI, gave up zero goals and had an expected goal share of 53%.
Maybe that doesn’t match the eye test but its what NST shows.
I reviewed ice time after the game
was surprised to see Podz Kap and Janmark so far behind
They need to play and pound the opposition into the boards
Kaps soft play in the 2nd probably impacted his ice time and that’s on him.
But they need to play and play hard every single shift
It will be interesting to see how Knoblauch adjusts the lines for game three. Maybe they reunite Podz & RV with Leon. I think the coach has his finger on the pulse.
Janmark really seems to struggle in zone defending as a centre. Frederic doesn’t seem to have the speed to forecheck on the wing, but is very positionally sound. I’d like to see Podz up with Draisaitl more, and wonder about Frederic as 4th line centre with a defensive focus. Kane, Drai, Podz on 2nd line perhaps.
I think what we saw was really impacted by a lot of the team not having their legs, I think Drai mentioned it. Against a team that plays like Florida, it meant the attack was way off, and the 4th line for one wasn’t getting to their game
Nuge struggled last year against them. He and Henrique have to find a way to contribute more every game, they are in key positions. They really could use a 3C with some pace and some game, so 3 lines could push as the Panthers have. And that was not McLeod last year, or the year before so says NST, so he wouldn’t help now either in the way needed
They will need a full contribution from the bottom 6, which starts with the pairings, which is what got them here so strongly. If Nurse Kulak and Klingberg can’t handle the pressure, it neuters the bottom forwards abilities to attack and get up ice. Which is why Bowman got Klingberg and Walman, in his own words. Stecher might have to be used to bolster Nurse, we can’t have him getting crushed again this time around. Lefties on the right against this forecheck isn’t going to work well enough, maybe Walman can handle it, but Kulak and Nurse don’t seem able
They can adjust, I hope they do. I think they are the better team, but you have to be the better team, and finish chances. Tempting fate is a bad idea. After the shortie I thought they were in trouble (well before that happened actually) not having put the game further away from bounces or bad breaks. Kudos to battling to 2 OT, but lets take them out of games earlier when the opportunity is there
I didn’t think the Oilers played a good game last night. I suspect part is on them and part is on the speed and tenacity of the Panthers. I expect the Oilers will play a better game, with better structure in Game 3. Tough loss, but can’t win them all.
“Don’t panic”
Douglas Adams.
Got your towel?
Don’t know who down voted you, take an up vote to negate!
Florida: So Long and Thanks for all the rats!
Perhaps the penalty parade in the 1st impacted the refs as well
The cats game plan is to capitalize on soft plays and we played into their game plan. Fortunately the 3rd was better but we can’t play that way and expect to win the series
I was hoping to see that Edmonton had figured out the Panthers for checked and would capitalize.
Instead, I think we learned at Florida has another gear in regards to their forecheck and that they can double down on aggressive pressure play across all areas of the ice. Plus there is not even room in front of their net to get a stick down. This looks difficult.
It looks to me that on the
breakout the middle of the ice is open. It appears the puck must move quickly, and that is the pressure man can be beat, free ice opens up.
The coaches will be working overtime on this. So far they’ve come up with a solution to every team, I look forward to them. Coming up with a Florida killer system.
I think they will, but they are going to have to have a lot more energy next game, and pace. Florida’s game is skating and pressure. It can be beat of course, but it takes discipline and energy. The Panthers are very good at playing their style and staying in position, to get past it you have to exploit the weaknesses, and that will take skating 200 feet hard, like they do, and then let the talent take them over the top
All of the issues that we could see were from a lot of the team being a step behind and that took away their time. It also made them weak on the walls not gaining position
A agonizing two day break and then back to their best game
The Marchant tactic can be used in reverse. When the pinch at the blue line is beat, a breakaway can ensue.
For Florida, this is why they conduct board battles with such intensity. Aggressive pressure does not work if you don’t win the board battles.
Gotta win the board battles
for Patt Quinn!
For the Oilers close puck support is key, to give options to move ahead. It is something they struggle with in games like these are. Also their D zone system, if they aren’t skating they can be stuck in a passive defense and hemmed in
I feel it is time for Frederick to come out and Jeff Skinner to go in.
Frederick is not able to deliver at the moment. He lacks power and he lacks confidence. He does play positionally sound and he doesn’t give up much. He should be better next year.
this year his hits have no power. It’s as if he can’t follow through and it’s probably back to an ankle problem. His speed seems off. He’s arriving everywhere late. I think it’s an injury issue, and if it is, let’s put in someone who is 100% healthy.
Skinner has been good at capitalizing on chaos, broken plates and finishing around the net. I think he should go in.
I think both Kulak and Frederick would benefit from watching one game. They both can play better
Kulak was 2nd on the team for 5 on 5 TOI, gave up zero goals and had an expected goal share of 53%.
Maybe that doesn’t match the eye test but its what NST shows.
I completely agree with the fact that the reffing played a substantial part on my enjoyment of the game.
I want to watch hockey. A penalty is a penalty. Easy.
I don’t wanna watch subjective reffing that takes my attention off the game into the nonsense.
The refs could’ve sorted out in the first period. Call the BS and the BS stops. Then we can continue.
They finally called Sam Bennett for goalie interference and Oilers made them pay, that was refreshing.
8-8 Total Goals Tie
5-4 5v5 Goals FLA… 3-2 goals off the rush EDM – 3-1 settled offense FLA
1-0 4v4 Goals EDM… goal off the rush
1-0 6v5 Goals EDM
2-2 PP Goals Tie
1-0 SH Goals FLA… goal off the rush
10-6 PP Opportunities EDM
This is the statement the league will plant their flag on:This is NHL hockey at its best
The dinosaurs decided long ago that allowing the zebras to be the conductors of their entertainment event achieves this. It’s not a sporting event, It’s entertainment. Close games achieve the goal and they’re willing to piss off the well educated fans to grab the attention of new and casual fans since they represent a higher percentage of the population
Oilers signed another Finn this morning. Viljami Marjala via TPS Turku in the Liiga.
Left winger
Some positive news today, Oil have inked 22 year old LW Viljami Marjala to a 2 yr ELC.
Ex 5th rounder from Buffalo whose rights expired June 1. Decent size and great numbers in the Liiga the last two seasons, including 8-44-52 in 54 games this season.
If only we had a Swedishposter equivalent for more details aka Finnishposter.
https://x.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1931365548006453754
Of note, he was #80 in 2021’s Here Comes the Sun, and a “highly skilled and creative playmaker” according to our host!
Florida played a strong game last night, have to give them their due.
Oiler were disjointed, undisciplined & sloppy with the puck far too much.
Skinner is playing well, just would have liked to see him battle a little harder on that second breakaway.
Minor quibble with a major implication.
Hopefully they can find that Defensive structure that served them so well in the previous series.
Easier said than done
That wasn’t Edmonton’s A game. Give Florida credit for that because they played their A game and Bob kept them in it. Florida deserved the win, even though the game winner was kind of lucky. But that’s hockey.
Well I guess it is settled now, confirmed going to game 5
With all the talk about Panthers as road warriors, Oilers are 5-1 on the road after an 0-2 start that wasn’t reflective of who they are. Get a split and we’re in good shape. Take both and we’re golden
I predicted Oilers in 5, that’s it for Panther wins. Three straight wins now for Edmonton. LOL.
Another totally epic game, edge of your seat hockey… unfortunate result. Onto Sunrise where we’ll need at ‘least’ a split.
The 150 foot pass they are trying to use when resetting behind the net, needs to be examined. It isn’t working. Florida is defending it, taking away options rather easily.
I thought they could not exit on the short pass. Florida winger sealed off the boards and right behind him was a defenceman pinching at the line.
They were turned back repeatedly over and over. When they switched to the long exit it forced the Panthers defence meant to leave the blue line. It wasn’t working that effectively, but at least the puck was getting past the blue line line.
They could have played the 2024 Stanley Cup Final hundred times. It would have finished 50-50.
They could have played that Game 7 in particular a thousand times. It would have finished 500-500.
This year appears somehow even more square.
These are two of the most equally matched teams you will ever see. Unfortunately, this game is won in the margins. 1-1 through two games is a fair assessment.
I am so proud of this team. They truly are never out of it, and frankly, that’s all you can ask for.
Oilers in 5.
I was at the game last night, and I’ve never seen so much embellishment from one team. It was unbelievable. The refs were right there, yet they let it all go—it has to be one of the worst-officiated games I’ve ever witnessed. Nurse had a rough night out there… they seriously need to bring in Stecher. Doesn’t matter if it’s Kulak or Nurse coming out just make the change. And the Panthers? They love to cherry-pick, especially Marchand. Can’t stand that guy, such a rat.
Can’t see Stecher coming in unless there’s an injury. Nurse needs to be better no doubt about it. I’ve always thought the optimal defense pairs are Kulak-Bouchard, Nurse-Walman & Ekholm-Klingberg. That’s what I’d like to see moving forward and if there’s an obvious too many men penalty for either team at any point of the game the refs must call it, enough said.
Agree on all of this.
Stecher has averaged about 8 minutes of TOI less per game than Nurse and Stecher – he did a very solid job in his 6 games but he’s not able to play the minutes these guys are playing – its a different job.
Nurse/Walman were fantastic in over 100 minutes this past regular season.
Nurse and Kulak were 1-2 in TOI at 5 on 5 and were on the ice for zero goals against