The Edmonton Oilers are two games in to a fantastic Stanley Cup Final. I’m finding this year’s series against the Florida Panthers far more interesting and intense. I’m not certain that will hold, but both of the games we’ve witnessed have been top drawer.
Much discussion yesterday about running goalies and answering the Panthers in the trenches, but for me the Oilers lost the plot a little in Game 2 with the parade to the penalty box. The physical aspect of this series has already been established, staying away from minor penalties now becomes the goal. Winning the battle but losing the war should have zero appeal to these Oilers.
It looks like the defensive pairings will be Nurse-Bouchard, Kulak-Walman and Ekholm-Klingberg. I like all six defensemen in the group, not sure that would be my choice but Kris Knoblauch and his staff’s spackle tweaks have worked consistently well.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is reportedly a game time decision, I don’t believe Jeff Skinner will be the plug-and-play. I could see Evander Kane moving up, with Vasily Podkolzin lining up with the Draisaitl trio. Losing Nuge, after losing Zach Hyman, is less than ideal.
This is a massive game, but they all are. Edmonton needs a split on the road, and I expect the visitors will get one of two in Sunrise.
I want to talk briefly about the wild cmments section on game nights. They are fantastically entertaining, and in the heat of the moments there are hilarious posts. One thing to keep in mind: If the Oilers earn the Stanley Cup, music! If the Oilers do not win it, there will be roster shuffles and next season may bring glory. The range of opinions on this blog about Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner and Darnell Nurse is earth to sky, but I don’t see any of them leaving. We’ll see. Enjoy the game. Respect each other.
Rachel Doerrie and Jason Gregor will join us on the Lowdown starting at noon today on Sports 1440. We’ll talk wall to wall Oilers. Join us!
New for The Athletic: Which Edmonton Oilers players have increased their value for next season?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6411776/2025/06/09/oilers-players-nhl-playoffs-roster-value/
NHL Referees, Linespersons Selected for 2025 Stanley Cup Final
“Each one of the refs working the Stanley Cup Final has secured themselves a cumulative playoff bonus of $120,000, having earned $30,000 for each round. Final Linespersons have racked up $76,000 by advancing through four round of the playoffs.
Officials get paid per round in the postseason, with referees earning $30,000 and linespersons $19,000 each round in the 2025 playoffs. Standby referees earn $1,000 for being on call, with an increase to $2,750 if they get into the game; linespersons on standby pick up a $650 check which bumps to $1,775 if they take the ice.”
Another reminder for none of you to feel bad for Wes McCauley and co. 120,000 for doing poorly at your job for 2-3 months.
This place has always been about learning. Listen to the analytics guys like Woodguy. Listen to the coaching guys like CrazyCoach. If you do that your knowledge of the game will improve.
As a pretty high level coach I think I can help those who I feel are still seeing the game as it was taught to them in the 90’s.
Every play has some risk/reward. A guy like Craig Ludwig would always choose the safe play but honestly, we’ve learned that scoring is the hardest thing in hockey and you have to take some risks to ever score. Defenders are too good now so counting on McDavid to beat two guys can’t be the only way you create offense. You need to “cheat” a bit.
Take Klingberg’s turnover in overtime. If you’re going to crush the guy for making that play then don’t have the guy on your team because you sign and play him specifically BECAUSE he will make that play. If you don’t want that play go get Vinny Desharnais who won’t turn it over there but guess what, you aren’t beating the Panthers with Vinny Desharnais doing exactly what the Panthers want him to do.
Evan Bouchard’s play on the OT goal was NOT a high risk play. It was a rimmed puck coming directly to his stick. If you’re suggesting he should have backed into the neutral zone, forgoing possession in the o-zone and allow Marchand to skate into that puck you’re not learning about the modern game.
Want further proof that cheating for offense is no longer the bad play your terrible Peewee coach taught you it was? Have a look at both Marchand goals but especially the short handed one.
On that play he comes over to the wall where Lundell is already engaged with Nuge, makes a feeble one-handed attempt to poke the puck free and then floats into the neutral zone on the wrong side of Bouchard. And this is while he’s short handed. Had Nuge not turned that over the Oilers now have a 5-on-3 until Marchand could recover.
But the math Brad is doing in his head is this…
Does Bouchard make too many high-risk plays. Maybe you could make this argument but the OT play was WELL within his skill level and risk tolerance level and I can promise you who woudn’t have been reprimanded over it.
Saying all of that, the Oilers got a little loosy-goosy. Their “math calculations” were a bit off. The Reinhart breakway probably didn’t need Klingberg in with Walman. Perhaps Bouchard should have felt more danger on the Marchand first goal.
But honestly, the practices of the last few days likely included some work that will appear high risk. How do we breakout using the middle of the ice to slow down the Panthers forecheck?
Winning without Nuge and Hyman would be a massive achievement. It will be incredibly more difficult without your 2 best non-McDrai forwards.
Skinner stepping in for Brown is one thing, stepping in for RNH is another. Maybe he can give a 5v5 offensive boost that overcomes any D shortcomings, but special teams will need collective work in his absence. Also really worried with how Skinner handles the Florida forecheck.
This blow would be softened if Brown was feeling better and could play up in the top 6, but not sure where he’s at.
Dang, stressful times
— every game now matters most! Just enjoy
— Fall on the goalie FFS else your leaving gamesmanships on the table and not maximizing
LFGOILERS!!!!
Last year, we went into game three down 2-0. Then lost. Then proceeded to give themselves a shot in game 7.
This year, feeling is tonight is a must win, as we are
downtied 1-1.We lost a game in all the other series too. We will bounce back and win. Connor wills it so.
LT is active today. Love it!!!
Biggest game since Game 7 last year?
“teams that win Game 1 of a best of seven format go on to win the series 68.6% of the time. Home teams that win Game 1 are 75.1% winners (343-114)” – sports insider
A sweep would have been lovely but completely unrealistic. Wes always going to be some measure of loss in this series, has to happen sometime(s).
It’s maybe the pinnacle of cliches but they need a full 60 minute effort tonight.
Legs moving from shift one until the final buzzer.
God im hoping for a sweep in sunrise. These oilers can do it. They are an excellent road team.
With Nuge and Hyman fully healthy and in the line-up it would be very possible. Not sure it’s realistic in the current situation.
20 different goal scorers. Structure. Next man up. This is the way.
I agree its only 2 people we have depth
Jeff Skinner did media today – I presume he’s playing.
Coach said Nuge will take warm-up and they’ll decide.
PLAYOFF POINTS LAST 5 SEASONS – as per Quant Hockey.
#1) McDavid 130 pts
#2) Draisaitl 115 pts
#3) Rantanen 84 pts
If Nuge is 60% get him out of there bring in a fresh body. It’s time to simplify our game on the road enough with burning out Leon-Connor by the 3rd period roll 4 lines trust you 6 D-men. I have a feeling Florida will try to play a cleaner game goading Oilers in. They must have none of it stay focused they have the talent and desire to win this crucial game tonight.
Agree. Next man up.
Trust your team enough to roll 4 lines by the 3rd period Leon-Connor can then take over. Florida will try to make it a special teams game as out PP is over passing any our PK is fundamentally flawed. I’ll gladly take 0 penalties and let’s see who has the better 4 lines and 6D
Anxiety at Level 8 this morning. It is not an elimination game, but it sure feels like the winner of GM3 will win the series.
Oilers 5-3 (KK empty netter on a breakaway as he would not have to beat Bob)
GOG
I’ve said from the start, GM 1 and GM 3 are the critical ones for the Oilers. I feel this is their year (contrary to where I was in April), and they will prove it with a decisive win tonight. I think they come out hard and playing disciplined tonight, which will give them the victory.
One thing I would like is for the pp to play with some urgency. Everyone without the puck is standing around. The guy on the far side needs to move down to give some options and make the defense move. And if Mcdavid just had a shift before the pp, start the second unit. I’m sure Kane Arvidsson Rico Klingberg Skinner can make a play
I don’t disagree but would add a wrinkle. Florida is aggressive on the PK, especially at the beginning of a shift. If we win the faceoff, I would play keep away for a few seconds and tire them out, then go at them hard.
Has there been any big brained analysis on the Oilers long change struggles this playoffs?
I don’t intuitively know why that has been affecting them, so any info would be appreciated.
Could the D realignment be a result of FLA targeting something with success during the long change?
I know FLA was dumping to the far corner a lot and it was working well, but I was camping and listening to G2 on the radio so I couldn’t get any context on the personnel etc
BTW unexpected to say as I was very uneasy with not being able to watch the game, but sitting in the wilderness by a fire with the wife, and our pup, adorned in oilers gear, listening to the game, and cold beer was a fantastic way to experience a playoff game
I feel that Florida has been very successful in upping the forecheck pressure in period two in both games.
All five Panther players have moved as a unit to pressure the puck and take away outlets.
It’s up to the Oiler players to counter this. Both D have to be faster to the puck in the D zone & all three forwards have to faster to become available for outlets, they have to match the Panthers and move as a unit on the breakout.
I think they’ve had trouble breaking out and you can’t just clear the puck to the neutral zone and get a change against their aggressive forecheck. In OT, is hasn’t been as problematic because Florida is more worn out and isn’t pressing as hard. Forwards needs to come back and help give the D passing options. Curlock’s post-game analysis Game 1 on ON was nice.
I haven’t consumed an ounce of hockey content since Marchand’s 2OT winner.
Several Panther infractions have led directly to goals against the Edmonton Oilers, in both games.
I knew it would be this way, and I hate it.
What an awful trap: Complain and you are a sore loser. Even if, in that complaint, is a moral argument for the good of the sport. (Worse, you’ll quickly find yourself being heckled by one of the 14 “hardcore” Panther fans, who probably lived in Boca Raton their whole life and know less about hockey than anyone here has forgotten…)
This team needs to overcome not just the “Panthers” or the “Refs” but the generalised cynicism of our times: The acceptance that bad shit happens and there’s nothing you can do about it so you may as well also do the bad stuff or else you are soft and beta. This is what the Panthers leverage, its not toughness or intensity, its a keen eye toward the zeitgeist, an understanding that the noise will drown out the truth. I wonder where they get it from? To hell with South Florida.
Ok, I didn’t ignore media, entirely. I saw a Youtube thumbnail of 97 and 29 at the podium over the weekend. They were smiling. I may not be, but that got me through the weekend.
The non-call of the too many men was outrageous.
Agreed. As was the non call on Bennett’s interference on Ekholm kicking his stick away “by accident” that directly resulted in a goal. I was livid at that one in particular.
The inclination of the NHL to appease the wider audience by forcing the games to stay close is incredibly frustrating. Reminds you it’s an entertainment product and not a pure sporting event like we’d all hope.
Me too, that one upsets me more than every other thing the refs did. Brutal decision.
‘The worst refereed game I ever saw ‘: Don Cherry blasts Game 2 refs in Oilers vs Panthers | Edmonton Journal
Agree with Staples’ and Cherry’s take. Interesting that Cherry saw it for what is was. Also interesting that his son agrees that 2 key missed calls led to Florida goals and then concludes that Florida should have still won the game. Math is hard?
Nuge is on the ice this morning.
Apparently he came out near the end of optional skate and lightly handled some pucks. Lines up with a “hand issue”.
Need a link or I will have to delete.
A link to which – that he came out to skate and lightly handled pucks or that it lines up with a “hand issue”?
I have no issues if you choose to delete but would note that posters speculate on nature of injuries every day here without any verification or links and my posts on this are clear speculation based on something I’ve heard and I’ve been clear nothing is official.
I’m not sure the difference with my post from many others but, again, your blog, and I won’t be upset by anything.
Lightly handling the puck can line up with many more things then constantly hammering a hand issue.
He hasn’t been the same since #6 in Dallas took out his feet and drove him into the boards.
If it’s his ribs, then moving anything upper body becomes hell. Draisaitl had no hands once his ribs became an issue.
3 reporters say RNH not joining optional skate, then there’s footage of him joining the skate.
I would guess that’s a better sign in the absence of any reporting suggesting it’s not Hyman level serious, but the footage just shows him hunched over during a drill so I am not reading too much into it.
Probably an unpopular opinion but if he is less than 75% and him
missing a game (so he has nearly a week off from game 2-4) would bring him better health for the rest of the series, I would keep him out.
Question for Lowetide; I agree all the players would ideally be back but what support players do you have on the team with McD=$16m, Leo=$14m, Bouch=12m, Nurse=9.2m; That’s $51.2m on 4 players. As per insiders they had a deal in place for Rattenen as well if they would have accepted our trade…Something doesn’t seem to add up here.
You can save $2.7 million with an Arvidsson buyout, and they have $12 million in cap with 19/23 players signed. So that gets them to $15 million, and they need four more.
Maybe they sign a bridge with Bouchard for $9M, then Frederic for $2.5M, getting them to 21. If you can add Corey Perry, Kasperi Kapanen and Connor Brown at value deals (I don’t think all three return) there’s at least a chance.
Bowman isn’t Holland. If it’s Arvi Stan will trade him, from what he said I don’t think he has a problem approaching players about waiving
— McD cant give the Tom Brady dynasty discount IMO
— he does have an obligation to NHL players to get the highest AAV to rise all boats.
— be like 1-1.5mm more than Drai?
McDavid is at $12.5M next year. His current contract doesn’t run out until 2026. Also in the summer of ’26, many contracts expire. 2025-26 might be a little crunchy, but I’m not concerned with McDavid’s next contract. The cap limit that year will be $104M.
Do we think Bouch will be $12M now? That seems high – I’m thinking it’ll be in the $80-85M range over 8 years.
Tired of the wishy-washy comments. take a stand.
how about “The OILERS will win tonight. Book it.”
You know how LT always says ‘some games you win no matter what, and some you lose no matter what’? It feels like one of those.
Really wish the boys bagged game 2 on Friday. Panthers hockey is starting to take effect and we’re losing bodies. Not sure who will be left if this goes to game 6 or 7.
We have one guy who is a game time decision. Wouldn’t call that “losing bodies due to panthers hockey”
BUT, I DO worry, like you, about attrition of enduring dirty plays, such as goalie runs, slew foots and body slams.
Yea, I just mean there’s plenty of guys who are not game-time decisions but are definitely hurting. And it’s going to keep happening more often to our players than to theirs. Ekblad should’ve broken his hand on that shot block, but apparently has bones made of vibranium.
What are you talking about?
I sure hope we draw different referees tonight, but have no idea how that works. Simpson, Cherry and I all had the same opinion on the Ekholm stick kick and too many men penalties that weren’t called and resulted in two goals against. Yes LT, it’s a fact, need the split to retain home ice for game 7 if it goes the distance. Which unfortunately after last game it sure looks to be the case. Get well Nuge. Sticks Up… with discipline. Go Oilers!
Scouting the referees isn’t updated for tonight yet.
Nurse-Bouchard is frightening but my trust in KK is currently at an all time high. Roll the bones!
In a small sample size, one could argue that their expected goals were high and they are due for a correction in actual goals. From the eye test, they both lacked positional awareness of one another on some of those goals against, and therefore don’t make for an ideal pairing.
either way you are correct.
I was born in November 1962. John F Kennedy was president. Two historical benchmarks in my lifetime:
1983 – Kill ‘Em All released on Metal Blade Records
2015 – Present – Connor McDavid
Everything else just kind of happened.
LFG Oilers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ha ha. Same birth month and year for me.
1984 – first cup! What a time we had – celebrating with good friends and no one got arrested!
ps. Did not realize how fortunate we were. Just thought that this team would win 10 cups. thanks for nothing Pocklington.
Well, same month and year for me too. Go figure.
What a time to be alive!
Nice evaluation. My dad is july of 62. He didnt get the opportunity to meet his grandfather from his dad’s side. Great grandpa Edward passed in 1960. But I’ve been lucky to meet my great great from my mom’s dad’s mom’s mom. She was born 1899 and passed away in 2001 at 102 years old and her daughter was born 1919 and passed 2020 at 101. God I hope I have long living genetics.
Its game day. Whoop whoop who’s excited 😊 and good morning LT. Hope you have a wonderful day.
The verbal on Bouchard is eerily similar to what I remember folks saying about Paul Coffey 40 years ago. Funny how history repeats
Agreed. Slats didn’t help by feeding Jones and Matheson stories about management’s frustration over contracts, but in both cases Coffey and Bouchard had/have vocal critics.
I think players like Bouch and Coffey have always taken heat on whatever team. High event, high risk high reward
Interesting, I was still a teenager when Coffey was wheeling but at that age all us Saskatchewan boys talked about how incredibly good he was…
That’s how I remember it as well. Among my teenage friends everyone seemed to love Coffey. It was the adults that didn’t like the defensive miscues and risks that came along with his brilliance
Rishaug at the rink getting the sense that Nuge is highly questionable.
This would line up with some rumblings I heard yesterday (far from official but trusted).
I know it’s hearsay, but when you say not good, do you mean “out for the rest of the series,” not good, or “miss a week,” not good?
That is bad news if he is out. I know it won’t be considered, but adding another centre like Philp may be helpful to the team. But J Skinner has been a great player for the times he has drawn in.
I think if 93 is out they need to keep the 97 and 29 apart. If they do that, they can bring in Skinner. If they want to load up they need another centre. I had wondered about Frederic as a low event 4th line centre and moving Janmark to the wing, but I don’t know how much centre Frederic has played this year.
This is what I would consider Philp has size, is defensively responsible and he’s an RHC.A fourth line of Janmark-Philp-Arvidsson makes a lot of sense to me anyway.
.
I’m positive Knoblauch has a plan. But for me I’d go like this with Nuge not playing.
Podz-McDavid-Perry
Kane-Leon-Kapanen
Frederic-Henrique-Brown
Janmark-Philp-Arvidsson
Honestly, I have more confidence in Podz & Philp than Jeff Skinner in a SCF against the Florida Panthers. LOL I’d rather Max Jones than Jeff Skinner. But that’s just me.
Roll four lines, run three D pairs and go for it
Even I would not play Max Jones over Jeff Skinner.
so let me repeat what you said yesterday in other words, you think that you know something, but you are not going to tell us. Now you repeat it. Somewhat narcissistic.
It’s not narcissistic. But it is certainly adding to my anxiety without further clarification
Wouldn’t we agree that Ira is “beyond reproach”? He’s among the only people who post here unveiled from his real life. I don’t think it’s reasonable to think he’s making something up. If his contact told him something but asked for it not to be revealed then I simply say “thanks for sharing”
I agree and that is why I was hoping for more detail, but it is also the rules of the blog to source your info so I can understand both sides of this, particularly LT not wanting blog to devolve into speculation.
I have a connection to Hyman through a mutual close friend, and so I get some details every now and then I’d like to share here, but I generally refrain
Looks like Walman’s shot hit him in the back of the leg, but he didn’t seem to be in a lot of pain. How much did he play in OT?
I have heard of people relaying info from sources, and protecting the source. Protecting the info AND the source, while posting that there is info and a source that needs protecting is new to me.