The Edmonton Oilers are extremely unlikely to deploy one of this year’s Bakersfield Condors in the final four games (or less) of the 2025 postseason. The AHL farm club has helped along the way, and some of the names you’ll see tomorrow night playing for the Oilers spent some time in the minors during the last couple of Bakersfield seasons.
THE IMPORTANCE OF THE CONDORS 2024-25
- Noah Philp 15, 0-2-2
- Drake Caggiula 7, 0-1-1
- Matt Savoie 4, 0-1-1
- Cam Dineen 4, 0-0-0
- Olivier Rodrigue 2, 3.10 .862
The die is cast, but Edmonton’s current need for skill wingers and a RH center for faceoffs and PK duty might have been better served by more NHL time for Matt Savoie and Noah Philp.
As we begin to look forward to summer, I think we can ponder those two names for next year’s Oilers. Inexpensive contracts, they can fill areas of need, and there are candidates to offload (Viktor Arvidsson, Derek Ryan) on the current roster. Alec Regula is another name to keep in mind. Stan Bowman brought him in, and that will be a factor, although not a guarantee.
Aside from Arvidsson and Ryan, I do think Adam Henrique, Jeff Skinner and possibly Evander Kane could go, but I would keep Kane. You?
I am hopeful the team signs all of Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard, Trent Frederic, Corey Perry, Connor Brown, Kasperi Kapanen and John Klingberg this summer. I know it’s impossible, but that’s my list. It would leave Max Jones out in the cold, plus a few from my wants list.
Despite the two losses in the most recent SCF games against Florida, I like this team plenty. I would keep the goaltenders, simply because the cost of Jeremy Swayman (or other) is going to be too dear.
As for summer targets outside the organization, a No. 3 RH center and some speed/skill on the wings should be a priority. If a RH second pair blue is out there, and is an upgrade on Klingberg, let’s rock and roll. What would you like to see?
On the Lowdown today, Kevin McCurdy will join us to talk about the Panthers forecheck and how the Oilers can get back to doing those wonderful retrieval/breakouts effectively. Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440.
New for The Athletic: Why are Oilers having trouble playing their game against Panthers?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6416347/2025/06/11/oilers-panthers-stats-stanley-cup-final/
https://x.com/nhltoatlanta/status/1932920005005357292?s=61
BREAKING: Forsyth County votes to approve the final documentation that would allow the Krause group to formally propose NHL expansion into metro Atlanta. The group is now expected to present its complete proposal to the NHL in the coming weeks.The vote, which passed this evening, was widely seen as the final hurdle; expansion is likely imminent.
3 strikes and you’re out?
Can’t focus on next year
If RNH isn’t fully healthy and I think we all know that’s the case, I run
Kane-McDavid-Perry
RNH-Draisaitl-Kapanen
Skinner-Henrique-Brown
Arvidsson-Janmark-Podkolzin
Play clean, with skill and speed and score some goals early
@JonathanWillis
With Connor McDavid on the ice at 5v5 in the Final, the Oilers have outshot the Panthers 44-27. They’ve been outscored 4-2.
This is not sustainable.
Either the Panthers will defend McDavid better and reduce the tilt on the ice, or he’s going to light them up.
Let’s hope he doesn’t just get goalied.
A couple 4 point McDavid nights would go over perfectly right now.
Kane/McDavid/Hyman
Podz/Draisaitl/Savoie
Frederic/Nuge/Perry
Janmark/(Philp/Tomasek)/one of the signings or a vet minimum
Ekholm/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Kulak/Stetcher/Emberson
Skinner/Pickard
Kinda how I see things landing come October. There will be several ufa forwards available for cheap that can cover not overpaying Brown.
Henrique and Arvidsson both waive their clauses.
That could be pretty close.
I don’t think there will be an “material external acquisition”.
I’m not sure I see both Henrique and Arvidsson waiving and being moved but you never know – if they do that, there is likely some cap space to add a piece to that lineup (unless they are giving Perry $2.5MM – which he may get offered somewhere).
John Elway.
Early in his career and through much of the late 1980s and early 1990s, Elway led the Denver Broncos to three Super Bowl appearances (Super Bowls XXI in 1987, XXII in 1988, and XXIV in 1990), but the Broncos lost all three by large margins, including a 55-10 blowout to the San Francisco 49ers in 1990. These losses reflected not only Elway’s struggles in those games but also the weaknesses in the Broncos’ roster and defense at the time.
During this period, Elway was often seen as carrying a team that was not consistently strong overall. His early career featured some struggles, and the Broncos had some losing seasons and internal conflicts, including a tense relationship with coach Dan Reeves that culminated in Reeves’ departure in 1993.
Analysts and historians note that Elway was plagued with mediocre teammates for much of his career before the mid-1990s. His numbers from 1983 to 1994 were league-average, and his teams were often not strong enough to secure championships despite his talent.
However, in the latter part of his career (mid to late 1990s), Elway played with much better teammates and led the Broncos to back-to-back Super Bowl victories in 1998 (Super Bowl XXXII) and 1999 (Super Bowl XXXIII), winning the Super Bowl MVP in the latter. These wins came with a significantly improved team, suggesting that earlier failures were partly due to team flaws rather than Elway alone.
Been saying it for years. The managers haven’t been able to make a winning roster. Hard yes, others have so doable
My opening day line up for next season
RNH McDavid Hyman
Kane Draisaitl Savoie
Frederic UFA Brown
Janmark Philp Perry
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Walman
Kulak Emberson
Skinner
Pickard
Haven’t put much thought into who’s available for 3C, but would like to upgrade on Henrique if possible. He just hasn’t made much of an impact
Podkolzin.
Oh shit! He’s definitely in the lineup. Maybe they try Frederic at C or just let him walk.
I did think they could let Frederic walk as, this past season/playoffs, his play hasn’t come close to what his AAV is going to be (including prior to injury) but, with the intel from Friedman, I think its all but a lock he re-signs.
Sail on, Sailor.
For me, one of the finest proofs of Brian Wilson’s musical genius was his revival of Smile, the Beach Boys’ abortive follow-up to Pet Sounds. This live performance of the album in its entirety is note-perfect:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwzolTeiidU
I especially enjoy “Surf’s Up”, which begins just after the 23:00 mark.
God Only Knows
https://youtu.be/XqLTe8h0-jo?si=yU5JrSpi3ggPNub_
It’s hard to overstate what Pet Sounds represents. More than just an album, it was one of the first pop records to fully cross into the realm of art. It stands as the apex of so many converging forces: the zenith of Phil Spector’s Wall of Sound influence (Brian did it better than Phil), the genius of the Wrecking Crew’s musicianship, the outer limits of what could be achieved with 4-track recording, and the peak of studio innovation at places like Gold Star and Western Recorders. Pet Sounds didn’t just raise the bar—it redefined what a pop album could be and was an inspiration for Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TK51TYP7I5A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRb_3SwurKo
Pierre LeBrun:
Hearing from sources that the group of Ron Burkle, Mario Lemieux and David Morehouse are investigating the possibility of buying back the Penguins from Fenway Sports. Burkle and Lemieux sold the Penguins to Fenway in 2021. Fenway has been looking to sell a partial share. Will be interesting to see where this goes…
I think the lazy delay of game penalty on Skinner was the deciding factor on who starts next game. K.K went with Pickard when L.A was up 2-0 Pickard probably saved him from the chopping block. Pickard deserves this start and he’ll reward the coach with 3 wins in a row.
Ya think?
We shall see young fella. Pickard is going clean up in aisle 4 and win 3 in a row.
I think if KK is even pondering the idea then it’s already been made. And I also agree with you on that delay of game penalty was most likely the deciding factor.
Picks to start next game makes sense too. Even if it’s another blowout…Skins will have to come back in Game 5 to save the day.
And really…isn’t Pickard the perfect example of LT’s favourite goalie saying…”goalies are voodoo”? His playoff run this year is incredible, there’s no denying it (his regular season wasn’t too terrible either).
I think he starts and I am cheering like hell for him to bring that Jobu voodoo for us so we can bring this thing back to CAN tied.
This team needs to be even at the 10 minute mark. No first shot goal take the crowd and the refs out of it. Play low event hockey Pickard will make the saves. This game is a must they play better with Pickard so go with the hot hand for 3 in a row.
He got six wins, and that is incredible, but the level of goaltending provided was not, in my opinion, incredible – he was “good” in his games essentially doing “just enough” to win.
His stepping in was integral to getting on this run but I feel that his performance has been highly over-stated.
LT – I love you man since you’re almost always the voice of reason, but like many others on this site, I don’t understand the value in resigning Frederic, especially if he’s looking for a raise. I just don’t see him impacting the game that much. 1G & 3A along with a 46% Corsi and 47% SCF% in the playoffs isn’t much production. Yes, he’s probably still banged up a bit and he’s 4th in hits on the team, but I’m concerned that giving him a contract could turn out similarly to Zach Kassian’s last contract. Can someone please tell me what I’m missing? Anyone? Bueller?
You’re not missing anything. The player we’ve seen isn’t even a million dollar player.
The only explanation is that this isn’t the real player. I don’t know his game well enough to comment on that. We certainly know there’s a need for a bottom 6 physical player and that they liked the player enough to target him even though he was injured and STILL want to resign him.
I don’t believe bowman is the type that would care about Optics and would double down on signing him to avoid criticism for the price he paid. I think he likes the player as a long term fit.
No worries. Disagreements are common and Frederic is not 100 percent. His Bruins numbers this season were also off, so the year has been a disappointment.
What have you seen in his numbers in previous seasons that has you interested in retaining Frederic?
Frederic is a physical winger who can agitate and score enough to play middle-six. In 2023-24, he scored 2.11 pts-60 at five-on-five, with a 55 percent goal share. His most common linemates were Morgan Geekie and James vanRiemsdyk.
He was solid five-on-five in the three Boston seasons before 2024-25 (as per below). He isn’t going to be a tough minutes difference maker, but he can post offense and plays a responsible, rugged game.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8479365
The Oilers are about the same height and are a bit heavier team at forward. If you take out the 4th lines as theirs doesn’t play much in normal games the Oilers are slightly taller and the weight advantage is more
On D it’s a wash, if Stecher plays the Panthers will be a little taller. I was curious as the Panthers play a hard game. The difference lays not in size but how they choose to play. The Oilers are supposed to be a faster group. Both teams have banged up players
The Oilers have to match or exceed the energy and battle
If the team can sign McD, Bouch and Klingberg it is a successful summer in my book. Agree there simply isn’t enough cap room to change the goalies. I don’t think we have seen the best of Skinner yet. Frederic hasn’t shown enough for me to want to keep except on a value contract.
I think you have to plan for someone to go out for the season next year too, like Kane did. Perhaps that’s Hyman. There seems to be plenty of evidence that you don’t win the Stanley Cup without being at (Cap +10%).
Oilers had an optional today – 16 players skated…..
That’s commitment
ABC News
@ABC
BREAKING: Brian Wilson, legendary singer-songwriter and creative force behind The Beach Boys, has died. He was 82. https://abcnews.visitlink.me/BgobeO
An exceptional biography.
https://www.cp24.com/news/entertainment/2025/06/11/brian-wilson-beach-boys-visionary-leader-and-summers-poet-laureate-dies-at-82/
So, no love for David Tomasek as the #3 RHC who can win faceoffs, PK, skate and score? 😜
I hope he can step in. And Philp and get some righties at C
He’s an intriguing option. They signed him to a $1.2M deal whether he plays in the minors or not and he’s waivers exempt so he could be good or expensive depth.
I don’t know anything about him, though the stats look promising, but they need to have room for some new guys. Especially if they don’t win.
I’m surprised there is any question as to whether Jeff Skinner will be back next season. He will not be back. He’s UFA and sat in the press box most of the year so the HC clearly doesn’t want him. And why would JSkinner want to be back?
It’s really surprising that he played 72 regular season games and 2(!) playoff games. You’re right. He will not be back.
I mean, they are currently playing Frederic instead of him… and he has looked terrible. I would also be gone.
NST 5×5 numbers through the first three games of the Stanley Cup Finals
Pair xG% FF% TOI GF% GF-GA
Ekholm Bouchard 60.55 59.46 45:58 60.00 3-2
Walman Klingberg 55.93 55.56 32:57 25.00 1-3
Nurse Kulak 36.34 34.38 43:30 50.00 0-0
So possession and shot metrics without the context of QOC show Nurse Kulak as the pair that needs to be fixed. Despite getting caved the haven’t given up a goal at 5×5 together.
In 5×5 goal differential Walman Klingberg doesn’t look good despite shining in every other metric. However, if Kling didn’t get double teamed by Barkov and Charron and Browny cashed his chance they are 2-2. What does LT always say about single events?
If your not convinced that Klingberg should stay in the lineup. Craig Button says he should come out. Craig Button is the Jim Cramer of the NHL.
Also this playoffs 5×5:
Nurse Stecher 53.02 48.35 74:05 100.00 2-0
I rest my case your Honour.
And were Back. Sorry about the poor formatting above. I should add
also 5×5 in the playoffs
Kulak Stecher xG% 28.38 FF% 36.36 TOI 09:13 GF%50.00 GF-GA 0-0
PS PuckIQ data for the playoffs would be so helpful.
Ok, so the right move here is gonna take some chutzpah. Stetch for Kulak.
I wrote another wall of text that got caught in the spam filter.
So I’ll boil it down. Yes it would take a lot chutzpah to scratch Kulak. I don’t think it happens. If the speculation is true that they’re swapping Kling for Stech, there is a lineup that the math likes.
14 – 2
25 – 51
27 – 96
Kulak Walman 5v5 in the playoffs
xG% 74.83 – FF% 60.00 – TOI 23:35 – GF% 50.00 – GF-GA 1-1
Small sample size but there could be something there.
I think Arvidsson is the forward under contract that is likely to move. I think he’s pissed about being scratched in the playoffs and would be open to waiving. I do think he’d be much better in his second season (lots of players need a year on their new team) but a player with a real cap commitment needs to do.
Tough to imagine Skinner back.
Ryan’s wife has already talked about the next chapter in their lives back in the States – he’s gone.
I think McDavid and Bouchard are locks to re-sign this summer.
I’m hopeful for $16MM-$16.5MM for Connor and anything under $11MM for Bouchard is a win.
From Friedman, sounds like the Frederic deal will get done – I’m worried about terms. I think there is potential there but he’s had a very poor year – he was 8G/15P in 53 games prior to injury so the poor year was while healthy. Its tough to see him foregoing free agency and signing without a raise but, truth be told, if he had this exact same regular season and playoffs not being an Oilers, I doubt anyone would be on board with signing him for over $2MM.
Connor Brown is a no-brainer re-sign, and I’d give him 3-4 years if he’d sign for around $2MM.
Perry, of course, is a no-brainer re-sign but he will need to take a discount. His regular season and playoffs could get him like a $3MM offer from somewhere and the Oilers can’t pay him much more that they did this season – he’s already going to be a $250K cap penalty for next season.
Kap I’d bring back but for the same $1MM he made this season. He’s cooled off but for a while there he was impactful in the playoffs. I don’t think he will be much better in the regular season than he was this season but he’s a depth guy that steps up in the playoffs – similar to Brown.
Klingberg is tough – without him they have 7D with Emberson and Stecher as 6D/7D. I’m not sure they will have cap room to keep 8D on the roster and I have no idea what type of AAV and term might be available for Klinger.
If Arvi is pissed that he was a HS then he should get focused on making a bigger impact when he’s on the ice.
Signing Brown for 2mil a season for 4 years is ridiculous.
I think a lot of it really comes down to how much Bouchard ends up getting.
L1 – RNH ($5.125M) – McD ($12.5M) – Hyman ($5.5M)
L2 – Kane ($5.125M) – Drai ($14.0M) – Arv ($4.0M)
L3 – Podkolzin ($1.0M) – Henrique ($3.0M) – Janmark ($1.45M)
L4 – ?????? – Tomasek ($1.2M) – ????????
D1 – Ekholm ($6.0M) – Bouchard (????M)
D2 – Nurse ($9.25M) – Kulak ($2.75M)
D3 – Walman ($3.4M) – Emberson ($1.3M)
D4 – Stetcher ($787k)
G – Skinner ($2.6M) – Pickard ($1.0M)
10F/7D/2G – 18 signed plus Bouchard
Cap space – $12,962,500
Obviously this isn’t where the roster will end up but $10M for Bouchard leaves you with a roster of 19 and $3M for 2 forwards and a spare or two. I included Tomasek because he’s the most expensive #4 RHC option but $1.2M vs. 800k for Philp isn’t a huge difference.
The D and G could be relatively set here so the question is who to trade? Arvidsson (yes), Henrique (maybe but can you move him?) or Kane (surpisingly, no). I think Arvidsson might even ask to be traded and Frederic is younger and bigger than Arvidsson and has played every game.
If Frederic signs a reasonable deal, it might allow you to squeeze in Perry, Brown and Kapanen in should they all be very, very willing to stay.
I’d say there’s a 1% chance Henrique is here next season, Savoie will also be on the opening night roster.
He has a no-movement clause and might be difficult to trade and replace. Savoie can be sent down and cap space accrued so I can’t see them keeping him up to start the season unless they have to or he forces the issue.
A poster held in very high regard made mention that Henrique is most likely heading back to Anaheim.
Savoie shouldn’t be sent down, his season in the AHL screams it’s time for him to be in the bigs. I can’t see a world where he’s sent down unless he has an abysmal pre season.
Regula and Jarventie are names to keep in mind here.
I can’t say I’ve seen Regula play but the intel is that he is a legit NHL talent. Of course, having missed all of last year, he’ll certainly start in the AHL to get pro games in but, if he is healthy this summer and can hockey train, he could put himself in a conversation at camp.
Similar on Jarventie but I’m convinced this player can play in the NHL. I only saw him play two AHL games but, in that first game, heads and shoulders the best player in the game and he was good the next night as well.
Of course, like Regula, he’ll need some runway in the AHL to just play games but I believe he could be in the NHL by the turn of the calendar is he can stay healthy.
Both these players will need waivers but, of course, in October, well, much more famous names clear every year. I won’t say there is zero risk but I do think it will be low.
If the Oilers win OR if they lose, why would one want to bring so many players back.
There is no need to bring back Klingberg, unless it is on a one year deal for a couple of million max.
One of Ekholm, Nurse, Kulak, Walman should be traded to fill holes in the roster (i.e. Kulak based on pulling the short straw)…for a RD that can make Nurse effective.
Apart from McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, and Podkolzin. I would try to move on from as many of the old veteran forwards as possible, looking for and pursuing opportunistic change. This is two year exercise.
I don’t particularly see the point of Trent Frederic. A pretty meh player. If Kapanen wants to sign for one year and one million, fine. But no duration or real money. Ditto Brown. Ditto Perry.
Regardless of the outcome, what is required is aggressive opportunistic retooling on the fly.
I would say EK based on age, but I do believe he will sign a super cheap deal in the next contract so not EK.It won’t be Nurse. So Kulak is likeliest. Agh. I hate the thought of trading any of our LHD. Better get a good return if we do.
We should keep Emberson AND Stretcher. Emberson is still developing. The point of Stetcher and Emberson is that you have depth that does not need to play every night.
I agree with this but I also think that they could have been in a place with Savoie and/or Philp could help this team, in the playoffs, today.
They even had the opportunity late, with all the injuries, to give these guys games with meaningful minutes.
Oh well, not the end of the world, I mean the 14F group is legit with real and substantial NHL players – i mean, Jeff Skinner can’t crack a lineup that is using an injury fill in for Hyman.
Savoie will be on this team in October I presume.
Coach wouldn’t name a starting goalie but I think we can rest assured that it will be Skinner – Stauff said last night he’s pretty sure Skinner will start.
Coach did say there will be a lineup change – presuming its not Nuge and health, I think we can presume that is Stecher in, likely for Klingberg – chance that they want to get Skinner the Jeff in.
“Both Evolving-Hockey and AFP Analytics’ projections have Bouchard’s next deal clocking in around the $10.6-10.9 million range for eight years. Edmonton would only have $1-1.5 million left over after signing a Bouchard extension in that neighborhood.
That isn’t a terrible spot for the Oilers to be in — they would have a nearly full roster with 11 forwards, seven defensemen and two goaltenders signed at that point — but they’d be at risk of losing some impactful depth players to free agency.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6400692/2025/06/11/nhl-salary-cap-crunches-2025/
It’s posts like these that show you can be a positive part of the conversation and this community HH. Your a great hockey mind and the fact that you refuse to do so most of the time is baffling to me.
Anyway I agree with those numbers for a contract for Bouchard. I wouldn’t have a problem locking him up with something in the range X8 and worrying about the cap implications later. Get good players keep good players. The depth problem moving forward can be solved by playing our prospects that are ready or shopping on the edges of free agency or being creative which Bowmen has show he’s more then capable of doing this year.
The Oilers are very vulnerable to an offer sheet for Bouchard.
For example, the Flames have almost $27 million in cap space, 16 draft picks in the next two drafts including four firsts and likely wanting to take a big step forward next season.
There is also speculation that they will trade RD Rasmus Andersson and his $4.55 million cap hit rather than extend him into his 30’s.
We have no idea if Bouchard would or would not be interested but the Flames could mess with the Oilers in a major way and they are not the only team that could do so.
Bouchard is going to get paid either way, not sure he’d be motivated by an offer sheet unless someone went short-term with a very high AAV. That said, I think the narrative around his defence scares other GMs from a $15+M x 3 contract.
For Calgary to compete with the Oilers offer would have to offer in the 4 firsts range
Would the Oilers match $11.7 million?
That would leave them with only $262K in cap space.
It’s posts like these that show that you can add tonthe conversation and make the community a better place. Not sure what keeps you from refusing to do it but I wish you would HH. You are a smart hockey mind when you choose to be so the fact that most of the time you don’t is baffling.
Anyway I would lock Bouchard in for those numbers x8 and deal with any cap problems as they arise. The depth problem can be solved by bringing in our own prospects and shopping around the edges as Bowman has show he can do this season.
Sorry double post.
The posts do not take in to account:
1) Bouchard has a fantastic arbitration case and, if he files for arb, which is likely, he cannot sign an offer sheet
2) the 5-year max term for determining compensation tier.
1) Why would he do this if some team offers much more?
2) Any team with the cap space could sign him to a 5 year term at more than the Oilers can afford and massively front load it so he can invest the cash and get significant returns over 5 years. He would still be able to sign another contract.
The chances of a massive offer sheet coming prior to the arb filing deadline are quite low. It would be the earlier offer sheet signing in the history of the cap era.
The second statement is just made up and pure speculation – i would suspect that some of the team with the cap space have the cap space due to unwillingness to spend to the upper cap limit and, in that regard, ownership unlikely to be willing to front load or provide massive signing bonuses, etc.
Last time I said this Skinner went on a pretty good run, so let’s try again. We need to start Pickard, Skinner isn’t good enough. Last year I said we would be better off getting swept in the finals than coming back to force game 7 because if we were swept management would have done something about the goaltending, but because we were so close, management thought it was/is good enough. Feel free to downvote.
Pickard is the right move if healthy he’s been the better goalie all year including the playoffs. It’s time for Pickard to save the day if K.K doesn’t start the man that saved his bacon against L.A then I can see Bowman moving on from his decision making.
Normally, I would be inclined to say the team needs a GK upgrade as that is the most important position in any team sport that has one. But there are so few goalies who are consistently elite that you’d be taking a huge gamble on the others. We have already seen this tandem outplay goalies with a higher cap hit. Maybe the play is to target a promising but not yet established goalie in another org. But do we trust the evaluation process?
To me, keeping Kane is a no-brainer. I would prefer JSkinner over Arvidsson and Frederic, if possible. The defence is getting old and I wouldn’t mind some younger reinforcements. The Oil cant mess up the Bouchard contract situation from either side such as they did with Nurse and Broberg. Getting that player stabilized at a reasonable rate with the league Cap going up might be our biggest win. Having some flexibility with the current core to address needs as they arise would be a great luxury since we dont know how age will affect this team
It seems the coaching staff doesn’t prefer Skinner over either Arvy or Frederic and the top accounts are that they are looking to re-sign Frederic (and Arvy is under contract for next season, although I think a viable cap dump option).
I imagine we’ll se a Bouchard contract in the $80MM-$88MM range.
The legend of Stuart Skinner grows.
Games 1-3: 7-14-0, 3.45 GAA, .870 sv%
Games 4-7: 14-1-0, 1.39 GAA, .942 sv%
I predict the Oilers win the next two.
Going off these stats they should of played Pickard the first 3 games I personally like the 6W-0L stat over 7W-6L.
We call it the legend of Skinner, but perhaps a greater truth is that these Oilers get better as the series goes on, and they do well when their backs are against the wall. Also, never doubt their ability to solve a goalie.
If picks was our starter, my guess is he’d look better in games 4-7 too. (Well, I mean he’s 6-0, so I guess I am only talking about his gas and sv%)
The Oilers do tighten up defensively in games 4-7, but it’s not by a lot.
Skinner lost games 5 and 6 against vegas in ’23. So he should have 3L in the games 4-6 column.
Guessing you just missed that year entirely. If so the break down is actually:
Games 4-7: 17-3-0
Woody should of started Campbell game in 6 after Skinner lost the plot letting 3 goals in rapid succession 90 seconds in the pivotal game 5 in Vegas. Skinner flubs the puck badly and Reilly scores 25 seconds into game 6 to set the tone. K.K has a goalie that’s undefeated 6W-0L that handles the puck very well if he chooses to die on the Skinner hill Bowman needs to replace him immediately.
What’s Bowman going to do? Bring in DeBoer? So he can blame everything on the teams starting tender when again he can’t coach his way to victory?
To clarify, the data is for the 24 run + the 25 run only.
I would keep Klingberg on a 1 year deal at less than he makes now, which is probably quite unrealistic as he is likely looking to make up for that 7×7 deal his agent blundered years ago.
Not sure I’ve seen enough from Frederic to want him back. The ankle injury obviously makes it hard to evaluate him objectively, though.
He’s an established player so we know what he is, and a good one when he can skate. If they trade Kane they will want him, and he’s more reliable defensively, as tough, can play C in a pinch
That’s a lot of returning players, and I fear would leave to another year of not learning what we have from the new recruits – players like Savoie, Philp, Tomasek might warrant a look and then a prolonged opportunity if warranted. Brown, Kapanen, types will be available. We may need to look at players who excel at PK as well.
All that to say, I’d resign the Perry, Brown, Kapanen group but most only if at a bury-able contract. Klingberg I think will want too much money, and I’m not convinced his overall impact at a higher salary is worth more than Stecher on a bargain contract. Perry also might want a contract closer to his current value, and I think it’s a risk.
I also think Kulak might be a luxury we can’t afford. Ekholm, Walman, Nurse is a strong left side. Perhaps if Kulak is out then Klinberg stays, but Lappanen could potentially fill a similar role (lefty though).
They don’t have the cap space to re-sign all those players. The young guys will get a look.
I hope so. Having a veteran group has clear advantages, but Father Time is undefeated and it’s another year and a lot of miles on some of these players.
I like Kapanen’s player type, a lot of teams do as well which is why he’s had a few chances, but after playing some solid games he’s back to making mistakes. I’m not sure he’s getting past that at 28, I don’t think I’d have him back as other than an extra spot duty forward
I think it’s the consistency that has held him back, and agree that at this stage I don’t see it changing. Fine in a depth role but suspect he may get larger offers.
If your first list (the buyouts), gets us Sam Bennett we don’t need Kane, otherwise I keep him. Wishful thinking I know, that contract is going to be massive, and I suspect he takes a discount to stay in Sunrise anyway. Even as biased as I am regarding Henrique, he may not play out the contract in northern Alberta. Unfortunate, always root for the hometown boys.
As for the hopefuls, I was excited at the time for the Frederic trade, can’t say he’s shown me that he’s worth the next contract being rumoured to be in the range of $2.5M x 3, or $3.5M x 2. At this point he may need to throw Tkachuk into the 3rd row, or get a several massive goals for me to change my mind.
I will be shocked if Bennett leaves FLA.
Next season 16 signed with 19M in cap. Seems like one of Bennett or Ekblad will go
Ekblad has already said he will take a big pay cut to stay.
The Frederic conversation is reminding me of the Mark Fayne discussion.
I don’t see why so many are dedicated to this guy. Based on what he’s doing now, or based on his past record.
Agreed. Management doubling down because they overpaid for him. Would be a mistake IMO.
The ankle injury obscures a clear picture of the player. We haven’t seen ‘real Frederic’ in blue to truly know if this is what we’re getting, hence the conversation. Fayne and Franson were lessons on ‘killing it on bottom pair does not mean top 4 ability.’
I think of Freddy like Vegas’ bottom 6. Can withstand the punishment and deal a little bit himself. If he scores, neat. Not sure what $ that looks like in a rising cap world but would bet the 1st year will suck and be more palatable after.
His past stats aren’t terribly good either.
Boston keeps players like everyone is making Frederic out to be. They let him go.
His value is more defensive, IMO. I actually wonder about him as 3C/4C. He’s positionally sound, and anticipates defensively. Right now, he is not impacting the forecheck or the scoreboard, so his value should be lower. If they are negotiating now I suspect it will be an overpay and an unnecessary risk… but at least one with potential.
I don’t see Skinner returning next year if the finals continue down this path.
Let’s hope he brings his supernova performances from games 4-7, wins Stanley, and is forever a hero.
For what it’s worth (not entirely his fault) through 3 games of the finals:
Skinner .866
Bob .928
Just find a way to win. That’s all that matters.
I see it the same way, RH C and wingers. I wonder if Klingberg at this point is a player that can excel in the right type of game, but can’t handle a team like Florida. Maybe it was just a bad couple of games, we’ll see. But given they are likely to keep Bouch I’m not sure another older version of him that has lost a step is ideal. It’s also not clear if Emberson can be more than he is which isn’t good enough at this point, something has to give
The Panthers don’t seem to need having more than Forsling as a puck mover type, and don’t seem to miss Montour. I think balancing the handedness of pairs is a good idea, but don’t see it happening until Ekholm’s contract is over and perhaps he is used in Kulak’s spot. Or maybe not brought back or he retires and they keep Kulak
Florida appears to be targeting him. And successfully. Knoblauch will adjust.
I think the defence is looking very good for next season, especially if Klingberg comes back. I would argue that this strength makes Nurse expendable/a trade asset for next season. With Bouchard, Ekholm, Walman, Klingberg, Stetcher, Emberson, Regula and the new signings, I think there is sufficient depth to offload a big contract and receive a good return for a guy who has a reputation for tough 2-way hockey.
As far as the forwards go, Philp & Savoie need to be there, Kapanen if he comes back on a value contract ($1M) and I am curious to see what Tomasek adds. Frederic is a Kane replacement who I think can move in the summer as well. I believe Perry retires this summer especially if they win the cup, so there is still space in the bottom 6 for guys to push, imo.
I don’t expect that management even thinks about going to Nurse about potentially waiving.
I’ve said it a few times, I really wish Savoie had been skating with the main group instead of Jones and Ryan. I liked his debut, his speed and forechecking would be an asset. Agree on Philp as well, but I’m not certain he’d offer much more than Janmark, outside of RH faceoffs (in low leverage situations, as I don’t see them trotting him out in high leverage spots)
I mentioned in yesterday’s thread that there was an opportunity to get him some real and meaningful reps in the last month of the regular season with all the injuries.
If he has played those meaningful games/minutes then he likely would have been a real option but we never got there.
In any event, Jeff Freaking Skinner can’t get in to this lineup, and that’s with a material forward out. Unless Savoie really impacted the scoresheet in that last month, its unlikely the coach would have tapped him in any event.
Yes, I wish they had done more load management with their vets during the season.
Skinner is a different player, I think Savoie would fit better in the top 6…but alas we won’t know until next season. If Skinner is in I hope he continues to chip in, he’s earned a shot.
Re: retrieval / breakouts.
Skinner has been more active with the pack recently, and a bit more confident than he normally is, short the one delay of game blunder.
But Pickard is a lowkey very good puck-handling goalie, and having our goalie actively intercepting dumps and moving it quickly to the dman will help moving forward in this series.
But as has been the case this series as well as all the other poor stretches of 24-25, if the forwards aren’t getting low to receive the quick out, it gets trapped on the wall and the Panthers (and even mediocre teams before them in the regular season) regain possession.
The Oilers are the faster team apparently, but I wonder if they need some younger players that can skate hard game in and out. The Panthers don’t seem to have a problem with it, the Oilers in many games as you mentioned seemed to not have their legs which leads to the forwards not supporting in the D zone I think, or not winning battles etc getting the puck out under control, which messes everything up heading the other way
When it was 4-1 and Skinner took the delay of game call with no pressure by a Panther that is when K.K in his head thought of going to Pickard. That penalty was all lack of focus and you can’t have that happen again.
Yeah, I’m not as down on Skinner as some (you) but it reminded me of how Game 2 in LA ended, with Skinner clearly not focussed.
I think it remains a tough call. “All-time best game 4 goaltender” isn’t really a meaningful stat, but I do think it influences a decision. If he falters, you’ll need to run Pickard 3-0 thereafter, obviously.
I think it was early in the Dallas series when I noticed during a couple practices Stu was working on the rim arounds from behind the net, and it definitely proved worthwhile against the Stars. I think DeBoer even commented on it at some point related to how they were having trouble gaining puck possession to attack because the Oilers were able to rim it and get it out of the zone so quickly. Hopefully the Oilers can build off that as a full unit with the increased intensity needed against the Panthers.
Free Jinner?
I do wish Philp was more of a consideration, but agree he probably needs more reps. This SCF is a shark tank.