Last night in Sunrise, Florida the Edmonton Oilers did the impossible, going from low floor to high ceiling in a single heartbeat. In doing so, this edition of the team secured its reputation as the most unusual strong Stanley Cup contender of my lifetime. No lead is too large, no deficit too much. The 2025 Edmonton Oilers are a heart attack on ice.
That was written after the rancid first period. Kris Knoblauch, who has gained a reputation for making brilliant Scott Bowmanesque roster tweaks, inserted Calvin Pickard into Edmonton’s net and the game turned in an instant.
I don’t think there’s any way to overstate the move, nor the performance by Pickard. He was electric in net, including a stunner save the rang off the crossbar after Pickard got a healthy piece of the puck. Remember that save, remember that game. Calvin Pickard earned a parade. Oh, by the way: the shooter on that play? Only Sam Bennett, the hottest scorer in the final coming in to the game.
As far as the speech goes, Corey Perry stood up and gave a heartfelt speech after the first period. Just one more way Perry has contributed a Herculean effort to this run. What an amazing player.
THE NUMBERS
The song goes ‘the minor falls, the major lifts’ but nothing about last night was subtle. It was an all caps game that featured baffling coverage followed by true brilliance from the same players. Witness Darnell Nurse. He was not close to being effective in the first, and then made two spectacular plays later in the game for a goal and an assist. Just incredible stuff. If you sent the script to Hollywood, no one would think it believable.
Oh the penalties! I mentioned on the Lowdown yesterday that the Oilers badly needed better discipline, but the first period was a parade to the penalty box. I know the calls were one-sided in the first period (3-0 Oilers minors) and the referees missed several Panthers infractions. That’s what this series is, overcoming the Florida Filth (who are exceptional hockey players) and the calls.
The thing is, this is the NHL. Sure enough, the Panthers got three straight penalties in the second. Edmonton would have had a clean sheet but Leon Draisaitl’s ‘elbow that might behead someone’ was clear as day and he got whistled. One penalty in the third to make things even, no calls in OT. This is the NHL.
This might be the best Final of my lifetime. It’s that good. Nothing is guaranteed, and momentum screws off whenever it likes in this series. There are some great arrows. Leon Draisiatl is uncontrollable with the puck on his stick, Evan Bouchard appears to be capable of playing all the minutes, and regression is going to kick in for Connor McDavid any moment now. This series isn’t over. That’s a good thing. The ‘heart attack on ice’ gang returns this weekend. Get some sleep. Take your meds.
Today on the Lowdown, we’ll be joined by Steve Lansky and Tyler Yaremchuk as we discuss an all-time comeback and what it means for this series. Starts at noon, Sports 1440.
New for The Athletic: What we’ve learned about Edmonton Oilers in 2025 Stanley Cup Final so far
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6422750/2025/06/13/edmonton-oilers-2025-stanley-cup-final-lessons/
I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out…
’We Want The Cup’ ‘We Want The Cup’…..
nobody generally responds at this point in the night … but one thing I noticed is Ekholm is getting better each game … and impacting each game – to the good.
I’ll respond! Bonnaroo was cancelled after one night due to weather and I’m sitting in the car waiting to get out. Wasn’t able to see the game but I am now a person who has seen Insane Clown Posse. Good news about Ekholm. Must have been tough getting up to speed so quickly. Oilers need him to be himself.
Horrible news, feel for you.
I was there in 2009 and convinced a friend and my brother to forgo what turned out to be our only chance at seeing the Beastie Boys in my lifetime, to find a pub showing game 7 where Sid could win his first.
It was a great game, Max Talbot played the best 60 mins of his life, but I still regret that decision to this day. On the trek back to the festival we had some delicious BBQ sliders courtesy of Bubba and his food truck and got ripped off by a preacher who charged us an obscene amount of money to drive us back in the dark.
We had a glorious weekend though, memories for a lifetime. Hopefully next year makes up for it.
Weather in Red Deer today has been kinda shitty. But still, today has been a good day.
Any truth to the rumour that Mike Spector, HH, and Godot are all the same person?
I am an Oilers fan. HH is not. And Spector is only a fan of himself.
So you are Spector.
Not to anyone who reads their posts.
I wish I was as good with words as most of you here, so I could properly express my gratitude for this blog and all the contributions during these playoffs. I somehow find exactly what I’m looking for and 20 more things I didn’t know I needed. This place is for the salt of the earth Oiler fans to share their thoughts. And guys like me to take it all in. No matter what the outcomes of the games, I get as much or more pleasure from reading here 100 times a day.
LT, you created this!! Thank you.
Your words read pretty damn good from my perspective.
I feel this. I’ve been coming here for what seems like 15 plus years and still read LT’s poetry and the comment section. Truly a special place.
All day long, I haven’t been able to stop thinking about the incredible forechecking by Nugent-Hopkins on the Walman goal.
https://www.nhl.com/video/edm-fla-walman-scores-goal-against-sergei-bobrovsky-6374215122112
Sick/injured, he out-battled three Panthers behind the net. There’s so much to admire in the way he plays hockey.
RNH is having an excellent series and probably hurt. The guy has the heart of a pirate.
McDavid finished 10th in Hart trophy voting, tied in points with Nick Suzuki.
Only selected on 12 of 191 ballots as a top 5 candidate.
I hope someone shows this to him tomorrow at 5pm MST…
HH favorite and prospect that passed multiple oilers on the side of the road Victor Soderstrom just got dumped today
While I rejoice in HH being wrong. Again. I always feel sympathy for a dream coming to an end. Hopefully that young player can find something new.
While true, this is part of HH actively crapping on an oilers prospect in favor of another
Not sure this is an end for this player. He may not end up even a top 4 D in the NHL but he was just the best defenseman in the SHL at 24 years old. I am sure he will be back if he wants to be. The change of scenery may be just what he needs.
Inspired by Reja et al., decided to look objectively as to how the goalies’ “contributions” have been to victory/defeat
Objectively one should look back at all the games played. I used MoneyPuck GSAA to try to balance out the great saves and flubbed shots and all in between. It is definitely an oversimplification (score effect, timing of saves, etc.) and I am not accounting for empty nets. Tried to see whether the goalie’s performance of that game would have changed the individual game’s outcome, compared to expected goals/average.
Skinner: Score (expected goals), GSAA, “won”/”lost”/expected outcome
LA G1: 5-6 (expected goals 2.32-4.63). GSAA -1.37, expected outcome L
LA G2: 2-6 (1.7-3.34), GSAA – 2.66, expected outcome L
VGK G3: 3-4 (2.75-2.31), GSAA -1.69, lost game
VGK G4: 3-0 (2.8-2.23), GSAA +2.23, expected outcome W (close)
VGK G5: 1-0 (2.35-1.98), GSAA +1.98, expected outcome W
DAL G1: 3-6 (3.83-2.99), GSAA – 3.01, lost game
DAL G2: 3-0 (4.13-2.87), GSAA +2.87, expected outcome W
DAL G3: 6-1 (2.36-2.97), GSAA +1.87, won game
DAL G4: 4-1 (3.77-3.58), GSAA + 0.19, won game (trailed in expected goals until end)
DAL G5: 6-3 (3.45-2.88), GSAA -0.12, expected outcome W
FLA G1: 4-3 (4.65-3.71), GSAA +0.71, expected outcome W
FLA G2: 4-5 (5.37-4.16), GSAA – 0.84. lost game
FLA G3: 1-4 (1.37-1.79), GSAA -2.21, expected outcome L (close)
FLA G4: 0-3 (0.65-2.94), GSAA -0.6, expected outcome losing
Positive difference contributing to wins: 3 (2 clear, 1 close)
Games with GSAA +/-: 6/7
Negative difference contributing to losses: 4 (3 clear, 1 close)
Pickard: Score (expected goals), GSAA, won/lost/expected outcome
LA G3: 7-4 (4.69-3.31), GSAA -0.69, expected outcome W
LA G4: 4-3 (5.5-2.85), GSAA – 0.15, expected outcome W
LA G5: 3-1 (6.47-2.02), GSAA +1.02, expected outcome W
LA G6: 6-4 (4.82-3.71), GSAA -0.29, expected outcome W
VGK G1: 4-2 (2.48-2.07), GSAA +0.07, expected outcome W (close)
VGK G2: 5-4 (3.48-3.85), GSAA +0.15, won game
FLA G3: 0-2 (0.5-1.4), GSAA -0.6, No decision
FLA G4: 5-1 (3.8-1.8), GSAA +0.8, expected outcome W*
Positive difference contributing to wins: 3 (1 clear, 1 close, 1*)
Games with GSAA +/-: 4/4
Negative difference contributing to losses: 0
A couple things jump out at me
The polarization on Skinner is justified. He has had several games where GSAA are very + or very -, so his individual performance in a game is deservedly more likely to garner attention. Ceiling higher/floor lower rings true, and has generally averaged out. But in 14 games, he had an impact on the final score for 7 of them.On other hand, Pickard steady for the most part, no games with GSAA < -0.7 – he’s been an excellent bet to overall give you average or better goaltending throughout a gameIn 3 of his 7 wins, I would say Pickard had a positive contribution that was key to the victoryFor those who want to give him the Conn Smythe, being a key factor in 3 wins wouldn’t be enough for me, but that isn’t to say as the “backup” he hasn’t had an enormous impact that has been critical to success. I would still say all of Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard would be more deservingLast night, 2 things are true – Skinner had them where they deserved to be (thanks to play and refereeing), and both Bob and Pickard had significant and opposite effects on the outcome
Since about March I’ve been championing Pickard as the starter for the reasons you’ve excellently framed above. Picks’ lows aren’t as low as Skinner’s, and with a team of the Oilers’ offensive caliber Pickard is more likely to win them a volume of games.
We have a excellent team all we’ve needed is steady goaltending. Ugly goals that lose you the game like against L.A game 1. Vegas game 3. Florida game 2 are morale and momentum breakers. How many times has Skinner been pulled the last 3 years I believe around 8-9 times. ‘That’s Crazy’ It’s hard to win a Cup with erratic goaltending.
In LT’s game day post, he said the Oilers will be in the driver’s seat if they win game 4.
Begs the questions. Are they in the driver’s seat?
Yes! Home team wins the cup 70% of the time when teams are tied at 2-2. Also, good, hard ice will favour the Oilers. So, adding another say 10% advantage for the good ice should have the Oilers at 80% to win. That is the ‘Driver’s Seat’ (shoutout to Sniff ‘n’ the Tears).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SCzVEUlqqA
Some wonderful guitar work on this recording
Lazy reporting over at Sportsnet. If you listen to the last question in this interview (is stecher available in game 5), KK states he has not yet talked to the Drs, and doesn’t know. Not sure if this was a slip up, as earlier in the interview he called it a coaches decision. But to me it’s clear that he was hurt. (Can’t have been from that stick though can it? It did not look that forceful)
https://www.google.com/search?q=kris+knobloch+interview&client=ms-android-bell-ca-rvc3&sca_esv=28e4df54c19560e0&sxsrf=AE3TifNODVMcabvXrcU2Oc8LhjQw385oBg%3A1749846310067&ei=JolMaLLXA72x0PEP_9zQ4QU&oq=kris+knoblocnterview&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIhRrcmlzIGtub2Jsb2NudGVydmlldyoCCAAyCBAhGKABGMMEMggQABiABBiiBDIIEAAYgAQYogRI3FdQ4BRY3URwAHgAkAEAmAGUAaAB0guqAQQzLjEwuAEByAEA-AEBmAINoALBDMICCRAAGLADGAcYHsICCBAAGIAEGLADwgIJEAAYsAMYCBgewgIIEAAYBxgIGB7CAgQQABgewgILEAAYgAQYhgMYigXCAgUQABjvBcICBxAAGIAEGA3CAggQABgFGA0YHsICCBAAGKIEGIkFwgIKECEYoAEYwwQYCsICBhAAGA0YHsICCBAAGAgYDRgemAMAiAYBkAYQkgcEMS4xMqAHyDeyBwQxLjEyuAfBDMIHBTItNy42yAdr&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:c967e3d0,vid:d2KAHByNouw,st:0
I’m probably biased but Pickard seems to distribute the puck better than Skinner and it takes pressure off the Defense.
Pickard looks like he is channeling Mike Smith with a little Tim Thomas mixed in.
I honestly think both tenders have done a good job of this in the playoffs and it’s a big part of our success thus far.
I do give Picks an edge in playing the puck, though, and it’s a big deal.
To play devil’s advocate, that was definitely not the case on the goal against…..
He definitely whiffed on that last one that led to the tying goal.
Haha. Agreed, for sure, that was a bad whiff. But it underscores the importance of puck handling skills for a goaltender. Has anyone done a thorough breakdown of goalie puck handling? Seems like it probably depends heavily on a team’s systems, but your goalie is super important in getting pucks out of harm’s way.
I’m getting exactly the same vibes off of Pickard as I had for Ranford the last 3 rounds in 1990. If Pickard runs the table and goes 9-0 you hand the Conn-Smythe to the career back-up that had the run of a lifetime. You also give Pickard the keys to the City Of Champions.
Well, there’s also that guy who set the NHL record for playoff OT goals in a season….
I love Leon it would be a pleasure to see him win the Conn-Smythe
It must be time to turn McDavid loose against the Panthers. Who are the best wingers that can create space for him, allow him to wheel or to shoot? Or is it a finisher who can take advantage and put the puck in the net once McDavid has drawn everyone towards him?
Made me think of back to the last Battle of Alberta. 97 was setting up Kane over and over and most importantly Kane was finishing. Does KK go for the rewind?
He can work the corners, put picks on the dmen, hes a shooter.
When Kane is hot, hes dam tough to stop. Worth a look.
The ideal winger has to be fast enough to keep up, a big enough brain to understand the spots, defensively responsible enough to contribute to breakouts, big enough to cause turnovers and create chaos, physical enough to intimidate, good enough hands to send/recieve heaters…and most of all….FINISH EVERYTIME MCJESUS DROPS GOLD IN YOUR LAP.
We can’t say we haven’t tried and tried to find this unicorn, but that might be because he doesn’t exist.
Drai is not his ideal winger. Nor is he an ideal candidate for the spot…we need him driving his own line and he still isn’t quite perfect.
But my goodness…17 coaches…107 wingers…and we still don’t have a “1st Line” or even a “2nd Line”…with the best player in the world on your team? Consistency. That is what I think McD needs. Someone he adapts to (and likes his style of play) and builds that chemistry….the magic.
He’s so good he’ll play to your strengths instead of his.
I think right now….Kane would help open up space and bring the crowd into it. He can create chaos in front of the net and has a bullet shot.
But hen you need a defensive stud with wheels on the other side…has to be Brown right?
My bet is Nuge-McD-Brown though…so he can carry the sick/injured through this.
We have that guy you’re talking about, he’s just out for the playoffs with a broken wrist. Seriously, I think people underestimate just how many of those boxes he ticks off just to be able to keep up with McDavid.
Don’t disagree.
But he does miss on some of the bigger ones. Tunnel vision with the puck, finishing is ok not elite, lacks defensive prowess…
Who cares really. Man we miss him.
Kane-McD-Hyman at home this next game could’ve been incredible.
There isn’t time for big changes, but if possible, the obvious choice is to change up the special teams in some small manner.
The Panthers are not going to change their power play, it has been deadly. They know exactly what to expect from Oilers PK and how to solve it. They have the top down I formation beat. They continuously get past the man trying to drive the puck down towards the corner, and get it back up to dman and across. Second top man is now late to the party. Thus, Edmonton must change something, throw a surprise at them, it might have significant effect.
The Oilers “creative” power play works when they have time to move, swap, and create. With Panthers aggressive pressure, set plays are effective as there is less time to think.
Knoblauch has been great, obviously he sees this, is there a counter he can come up with?
I’m looking forward to what KK comes up with.
It’s not rocket science go back to the box our PK has been a embarrassment. If this is a case of being stubborn someone needs to get over themselves
Pickard is better at lateral movement (but like Skinner can overplay), and that should also help our PK
Honestly there were a couple of times where Pickard badly overplayed. Like when Ekholm literally made the save on a WIDE open net.
They give-up way too many chances in the wheelhouse it’s like Eakins Swarm strategy it doesn’t work. Go back to the box for heavens sake this stubbornness is close to costing us a Cup.
I’m not sure the Oilers PK is going to, all of a sudden, be more effective at this point.
What I do know is that is would benefit the team to stop high-sticking the opposition in their faces……..
It is a wonderful day today.
Great job by Edmonton. I want these guys to win. Not for me, for them.
The players. And for the fans. And for millions of Canadians that want to see any team bring the Cup back to Canada.
You can say “for us” instead. The whole country is watching seems like.
I took the dog for a walk in the second period, in the pouring rain. Historically, the Oilers do very well when I walk the dog. It was tied when I got back. You’re welcome.
I watched the first, then had to attend to a fussy baby for the second and most of the third. With about a minute left in the third I thought I’d turn it back on.
So I watched four Florida goals and zero Edmonton goals.
I chose to skip the OT for the greater good.
You’re welcome 😁
I was so pissed at the first period I myself went for a walk in the rain listening on the radio. Once I heard Pickard was starting the second I knew the boys would get it to OT.
Team with home-ice advantage in the SCF are 20-6 when series tied at 2-2.
In addition to the historical numbers, I believe that the great ice itself at Rodger’s is an additional advantage to the Oilers. Highs of less than 20c will help although humidity in the 80s will hurt a little. No matter, the ice in Edmonton is waaaaayyyyy better than the soup in Sunrise (or Dallas for that matter).
Oilers are going to skate the Panthers into the great ice. ‘Rush chance’ McDavid to make a statement.
If there are any other Muppets here that want to brave the Ice District crowds, John Chambers and I will be at O’Byrnes Ice District this Sat.
Come scream at the refs with us.
Do NOT touch that Skinner-Henrique-Frederic line! They played well last night and in game 5 against Dallas.
2-0 in 2 games played
And how about the Pod-Drai-Perry line!
Leaves 6 players left. What if they ran:
Kane-McDavid-Brown
Janmark-Nuge-Kapanen?
Kane-Jamark-Kapanen didn’t rhyme (Kane didn’t work well at all last night), nor did RNH-McDavid-Brown
Subtle change, gives Nuge easier matchup while recovering from whatever is ailing him, and hopefully re-engages Kane
Nuge is staying with McDavid
I’d keep Nuge with McD and move up Kap. Then Kane-Janmark-Brown. Unless Nuge really is done, then 4th line C is an appropriate spot.
Keep Kane on the 4th line, lower minutes. He’s doing more harm than good.
Probably unpopular but I’d give Brown a game off and put in Arvidsson. It’s not like our pk has done anything positive.
I don’t know who you take out but I would start Viktor next game.
I would too, I don’t predict it will happen
Interesting to hear 2 differing perspectives:
Major Oilers line-up shuffle: Two veterans moved in, two out, one bumped up | Edmonton Journal
Staples Used P/60 and his scoring chance data to argue to elevate Arvidsson
Oilers hoping lineup changes can give them ‘a boost’ in Game 4 against Panthers
“Arvidsson had helped outscore the Panthers 2-1 at five-on-five with him on the ice, including getting a goal in Game 1, but the underlying numbers have been brutal, as Oilers have controlled just 33.9 percent of the shot attempt share, 25.9 percent of the expected goal share and 12.5 percent of the high-danger scoring chance share.”
Don’t know how this compares to Frederic, Kapanen, etc.
Based on recent play, Connor Brown or Mattias Janmark (both kill penalties, not well these days mind you, and one of them is playing center, while better suited to be a winger though).
Asking for a friend
If Pickard ends this year at 9-0, how does he not win MVP?
For me Pickard doesn’t win the Smythe because he did not get 16 wins. If he goes 9-0 that is only 56.25% of the required wins! Right now, for me, on the Oilers it is 29.
Leon
Well without Pickard we likely would not have even seen the second round would be my response to that. As well as we have other people who could step up and score goals if Leon is out. Who backs up the back up?
You are correct, I don’t think we get out of the first round without Pickard. In answer to your question, Skinner and Picks seem to be backing up each other quite nicely, because I don’t think we get to the SCF without either of them.
I wouldn’t pay to see a movie this unbelievable. What a ride.
In the 6 games Pickard played all of, the gave up 4, 4, 1, 4, 2, and 4 goals. In a 3-2 league, he only wins 2. Skinner in his 7 wins he played all of gave up 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 3, and 3 goals. If you’re looking for situations where the goalie “won”, you probably only have 3 wins for Pickard so far and his numbers aren’t “best player in the playoffs” or really that close.
True but I would still say he has done exactly enough every night so far. So maybe not MVP but most needed player.
Let me put this a different way. You’re evaluating pitchers based on their run support. Pickard needed the team to score 5(!) goals in 5 of his 7 wins. There are 10 goalies in the playoffs with better numbers. He let in 4 goals in 66.7% of his starts. He mostly provided average goaltending for an exceptional offence. The hero part is more luck than anything.
See and thats where we are different. I am not evaluating based purely on numbers but on effect. He is 7 wins no losses. Drai has 4 OT winners. Both great absolutely. I kind of expect it from Drai. I would have bet alot of other people’s money against Pickard going 7-0.
Picks has been amazing, and if he goes 9-0, wow. However, the Conn Smythe is awarded to the player who is the overall MVP for either team, so the other side needs to be considered in the discussion also. Just going by history, FWIW, this is the 60th year of the Conn Smythe trophy. Over the past 59 years, it’s only been awarded to a goalie 17 times. All those goalies played the majority, if not all, of the playoff games.
Drai deserved the Hart IMO, if the Oilers win the cup I would love to see Drai be rewarded with the Conn Smythe.
Since the Oilers joined the NHL there have been four (4) 3-goal comebacks in the SCFs. Amazingly, the Oilers have been involved in three of them. Lost 2 and as we all know have won the last one. In the two previous series, the Oilers are 1 and 1 winning the cup. Hoping the boys increase that total to 2 and 1 this year (ps: still hate the Hurricanes).
Been an on-and-off Lowetide reader for probably over a decade, decided to make an account.
What a series so far, 3 out of 4 to overtime is nuts. Anyone know a good place to go watch Saturday’s game in Victoria?
The Beagle Pub… I heard it’s absolutely nuts to get a seat though
Christies Pub… ‘little’ quieter
The Local
1205 Wharf St
Second The Local, was there last year for game 3 against the panthers. We were able to sneak in no reso but it did fill up
The Waddling Dog Pub in Saanichton is a popular spot to watch NHL games including playoff games.
They have multiple TVs, full sound, and often offer game-day specials like discounted drinks.
The Waddling Dog is also known for its patio, which has been upgraded with outdoor TVs and heaters for comfortable viewing,
I was at Christie’s for Game 6 against the Kings and there were a few Oiler faithful that happened to be there too.
We really need a Black Frog in Vic.
There can only be one Black Frog
I went to a bunch of games at Black Frog last year and went for game 3… I will not be back… don’t want to Jinx
I’ve heard the Local is the best for Oilers fans and watched a couple games there a while back, but having lived in both Vancouver and Victoria, nothing in Victoria felt worth it more than any other good bar to watch sports at in the area. So I tend to watch the games at home (I’m on the Saanich peninsula). Maybe I’ll try the Waddling Dog as HH suggests sometime
Thanks everyone
If coaching are scared to play Stecher or Klingberg for longer than 10 mins, do you pick the best D on the PK, given the obvious need for improvement there?
In this scenario, it wouldn’t be Klingberg.
Stecher actually had some of the best metrics on PK in the regular season, but only played 44 mins, whereas Emberson had 140 mins and was superior to Nurse
It is interesting how little discussion there has been about Emberson. I haven’t heard his name for weeks
With the PK being an issue, I wonder if he draws back in. It’s either him or Klingberg, who might be a reasonable insert since Knoblauch can control the matchups at home (but doesn’t help the PK).
Not sure he’s scared to play Stetcher. He made a comment about not having talked to Drs about his availability for game 5. Makes it sound like he’s hurt.
Ya, was basing that off the initial TSN report. Still goes back to the exercise of whether they trust Klingberg to take a regular shift, because if not, he does nothing for PK
Klingberg was playing apx 22 minutes/game in the playoffs.
I have little doubt the coaching staff will trust him to play a regular shift if re-inserted.
I think a game off for rest and recovery should be good for this due – 18 straight playoff games after barely playing hockey for two years (and not having any prolonged stretch of games this season) was likely a factor in his recent regression.
Additionally, I heard someone mention in, I believe, the TNT postgame, that assuming the Edmonton ice is truly better than the Sunrise Ice, that likely better suits the strength’s of Klingberg’s game.
While not a fast skater, Klingberg has great edges, is elusive with the puck and a quick passer when he needs to be, but that depends on being able to corral and control the puck cleanly and quickly so he can make the move or pass. On an ice surface like in Sunrise, puck’s that are dumped in or fired around the boards are bouncing or going up on edge more often, adding to the time it takes to get the puck under control.
An extra 1/4 to 1/2 a second of hesitation to gain clean control significantly hampers one of Klingberg’s greatest strength. With just a 1/4 second hesitation in controlling a puck, a forechecking forward skating at 20 MPH (achievable by almost any forward in the NHL) can get 7 ft closer. That 7 feet substantially increases the odds the forechecker can disrupt the move or the pass that can start the breakout.
In post-game interviews:
Podkolzin on Pickard (Russian accent) “He’s beauty”
Walman on Draisaitl “He’s a beast”
We officially have Beauty and the Beast.
For OP who thinks I only post saved angry Bouchard drafts when he plays bad:
Bouchard didn’t make it onto the score sheet, but he had a hell of a game. He was sharp, skated well, anticipated play, moved the puck well, and most importantly, defended well. He made several smart defensive plays that kept us in it in the first period when everyone else was looking sleepy/deer-in-headlights. Right from his first shift he was flying and tuned in to each play.
He also played well in game 3, despite the loss, as a nice recovery from the game 2 personal debacle.
I think this is a great sign of recovery and learning from major errors in a maturing player who certainly makes less mistakes than he did some years ago, but still has room to grow.
I’ve always said that we need the 28 year old version of Bouchard to play with our superstar forwards, but instead we have to suffer through the growing pains of a young Dman learning his trade.
His offence has always been world elite. No doubt about that.
His defence is elite as well.
Well, you almost got to an unqualified endorsement. Bouchard is an elite, top 10 NHL dman. No further positive or negative qualifications required.
Bouchard should have blocked the shot on Tkachuk’s PP goal instead of screening Skinner and then jumping out of the shot’s way.
Statler and Waldorf chiming in. Assuming you are joking in a caricature type of manner.
To get in to the lane to block that shot (1) would have taken Bouchard away from the from of the net and (2) would have screened Skinner even more.
What a weird take.
Bouchard can see everything in front of him. He can see Tkachuk. He can see Barkov positioning to manouver himself and Nugent-Hopkins into a double screen. Bouchard can see that he himself is screening Tkachuk from Skinner. He can see Tkachuk prepare to shoot and shoot.
The reasonable thing for Bouchard to do knowing all that is NOT to jump out of the way of the shot…lean out of the way of the shot., but to make sure that he blocks the shot. It is going to be a Tkachuk wrister, which is not even a hard shot. He could have leaned right instead of left and blocked the shot.
I was talking to a buddy of mine about the officiating before the game yesterday, particularly the Panthers too many men in ot of game 2. I asked him how they could miss that. He responded with “They didn’t miss it. There’s lots of Panthers infractions taking place. The refs aren’t missing them, they’re just not calling them.” This is exactly what’s going on.
I don’t think any kind of a conspiracy would ever be possible, but I also can’t imagine the refs are missing everything the Panthers are doing. It’s so frustrating!
I am not a big fan / believer in conspiracy theories. However, this is getting to the point of ‘what else can it be?’.
Can someone provide a logical explanation for the no calls on CV boarding Bouchard or the double high stick to the head of Stecher. If so, I would love to hear it.
Thinking the Officials are cancelling out opposing violations but us Homers don’t see/register the Oilers dirty plays and only see the Panthers.
It’s the only thing that makes sense to my. The Ref see’s Florida do something bad and cancels it out with the next Oiler penalty. Eventually they call something when one team gets too far ahead.
Oilers must be unlucky. I am sure it has nothing to do with Colin Campbell, who is now Senior Executive of Hockey Operations who has a history of abusing his power in favour of his son Greg, who is now Assistant General Manager for the Florida Panthers:
https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/savard-emails-exposed-nhls-colin-campbell-corrupt–nhl.html
Here’s Scotty Bowman, from 1977: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1977/05/09/inconsistent-calls-mar-play-in-nhl/8cc922a2-ae52-4dcd-8fd1-a94b0a4a9d7c/
I particularly like the final quote. ‘the game is degrading itself…’ I’ve been going further, saying the Panthers (and by extension, because they are allowing it, the league) are making a mockery of the game.
Florida is definitely up around that 20, or more, infractions per game. Paul ‘they can’t call them all’ Maurice counted on the same thing when he was with the Jets.
Its on old story – Maurice’s Jets hacked, held and sat on McDavid in the Covid-time playoff series and it was the Oilers who took the penalties.
Unconscious bias and conflict of interest are such that there is no doubt whatsoever that this is a factor. Doesn’t require conspiracy. Although, we have seen reported examples of conspiracy from this individual.
A few very questionable late regulation/OT icing calls went FLA’s way too . Very subtle means of attempting to affect the outcome of the game.
Yes I forgot about this too. A few were weird.
Yes in the playoffs or at least the finals, there should be media availability for the refs after the game. They need to explain this, if it’s a missed call, it’s a missed call, but let them come out and say that. If the same refs are repeatedly missing calls to the same team, let them say that and then the league can explain why those are the people reffing the game. But this is the way to get accountability. Someone has to be answerable at some level.
NHL never has and never will hold the officials accountable. They can’t afford another honest ‘Tim Peele’ moment in the age of legal gambling….
On Perry’s leadership, I’m pretty sure I saw him pick up the puck after Drai’s game winner. Aware of the record I think. Thought that was pretty cool
Oilers showed a lot of class not over celebrating a own goal by Florida. Whereas Florida had the number 1 PP on the ice with a 5-1 lead late in game 3.
I think it wasn’t that they were showing class. It was business. It was “we’re not through with you yet”.
Especially as it broke a record held by Perry himself
Bouchard is the Oilers general.
Hot take: most games, Bouchard is the Oilers biggest play driver. Just a fantastic player.
The analytics agree with you. IIRC his xG% is around 60%. The team gets shredded when he leaves the ice.
He looks like a mix of Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty. His offensive hockey IQ specifically is off the charts. And he’s really found a defensive game that works for him. Stick work is incredible.
If Bouchard continues to improve on the defensive side, I honestly think of Lidstrom as a comparable style for him. Don’t know if he’ll ever hit that echelon of elite, but he has a similar ability to tilt the ice in the team’s favor whenever he’s out there
This is somewhat shown in the numbers, in particular his exceptional numbers with McDavid and Drai off the ice these playoffs.
Two lists: McDavids fewest games to 100pts lost: https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/1d27dbc/mcdavid_is_now_in_the_top_5_for_fewest_postseason/#lightbox
And tchuckys fewest games to 80 list
https://x.com/NHLPR/status/1933332988273832385
One of these is not like the other.
One is HOF, the other is POS…
Ha!
Win one game on a Saturday night at home and this team will have two chances to win a Stanley Cup.
Lets think about the feels and vibes if they can grab a win on Saturday night.
I want that!
The Oilers will win on Saturday.
Whaddayaknow…. Shoot high on Goalie Bob and win the game… Whoodathunk?
But down low (except for own goals) he’s pretty much sealed the net. Frustrating to watch so many skaters still trying to beat him low…
Agreed. And I will see your ‘frustrating’ and raise you an ‘infuriating’… Every shot that can be elevated, should be. The guys trying to snipe him low are playing a fool’s game.
Kevin Weeks let it slip in post-game comments on some US broadcaster. Words to the effect of, “You won’t even find this action in the WWE or the MMA”
…
We know who this sport is being marketed toward. They have stopped trying to play with the NBA, NFL, or MLB, other team sports with similarly complex and exciting North American histories. The NHL wants to grow, it won’t give up on the South, and it thinks it can come back even stronger in places like Atlanta (somehow getting a third chance!?) if the largely manospheric and deeply conservative pool of potential fans in this region can associate the NHL with WWE/MMA:
Violence on one hand, fakery on the other.
This isn’t conspiracy, its zeitgeist. It isn’t puppetry but rhyming: and the South Florida Panthers, and their shirtless, testosterone-fuelled fanbase doesn’t see the sport like we do. Theirs is cultural expression in a very different way. It is pure commodity entertainment. In fact its value is first as reality TV: demented drama that aligns increasingly with a general worldview, “down there”.
If Edmonton wins this, we may not discuss it here, but it will be political. Not in a superficial sense, but deeply in the sense of answering: what kind of hockey world do we want? Do we want the beauty, speed, and talent of the sport to reward a fanbase in a market that obsesses over a collective memory of the game? Of family and community? When we do something that hasn’t been done since 1919, where do our minds go? To heritage, and to the team’s position in this long and often sophisticated past.
If Florida wins, we get: refried pugilism, a roid-rage yelling match made for Youtube, brought to you by Sports “Interaction”, fed directly into the veins of a confused and frustrated male youth culture. We’ll get claims to a “dynasty” from people who couldn’t name 3 New York Islanders. We’ll get Tkachuck and the orange man in the white house, after a tepid “parade” to a thousand people on jet skis. To hell with that.
We are witnessing the cleaving of the sport in two. Represented by these two teams, by these two cities.
I am so happy Edmonton won last night so I can express these things and not feel like a sore loser. Officiating in the first period last night was the unacceptable outcome of dumb men leading a great sport down made-for-TV obsolescence.
Now Edmonton must win the series. Connor must close out the promise of Four Nations. I don’t begrudge the Panther’s their talents. But I am desperate to confirm and affirm beauty in this ugly ass world.
Great line.
If Edmonton wins in 2025 it will be the most important Cup in hockey history.
It would be a spectacular and well deserved F.U. to the NHL.
Also guessing FLA would be back to playing in an empty building after all the ‘fans’ jump from the sinking ship like, well, rats….
This is wonderfully put and insightful, thank you!
I will be keeping this post in mind the next time I hear that “there is no low-tax advantage.”
I was thinking that Klingberg’s regression in the last couple of games could be due to fatigue.
Lets not forget, this guy didn’t play hockey at all for a couple of years until earlier this year and then didn’t really get in to any groove during the regular season with the Four Nations and his injuries.
Then, all of a sudden, 18 playoff intensity games in a row at 22 minutes.
I presume he’s back in for Stecher next game and confident he’ll be re-charged and back to the way he was playing for most of the playoffs.
Yes, I know, his play was likely also partially a function of the opposition’s game.
Agreed. I think it’s the same with Ekholm, but to a lesser extent. It’s not easy to come back from injuries and keep up with the intensity of playoff hockey played at this level. And it sure doesn’t get easier the further into your 30s you get. But even despite their physical tools being limited, it’s incredible watching their brilliant hockey brains still allow them to be impactful players.
It has to be an absolute nightmare to play against the Panthers in the finals with all their s-tty chicanery, the ice and the officials. The thing that is impressing me about these Oilers is that their cool-headed organized game of the previous three series has broken down to a large degree (witness the stick fouls) and they can impose their will in key times, they have stolen a game and are 2-2 going home. There is no way to look good against FLA, win or loose. “When all the world is breaking down, you make the best of what is still around”
I said to my kids when we were down 3-0 that Pickard would come in for the 2nd and we would win the cup with him the rest of the way. Praying it’s true! 😁
If you sent the script to Hollywood, no one would think it believable.
The ‘heart attack on ice’ gang returns this weekend. Get some sleep. Take your meds.
Priceless hockey, priceless commentary! Thank-you Lowetide
Two wins needed with two of the last three games on home ice. But I don’t think that’s the right mentallity. Gotta put them down ASAP. Something tells me we are in for an even wilder off season.
. Would Bouchard be worth two first round picks to someone out there? Or even 4?
. Did a possible Bouchard offer sheet influence the Walman trade?
. Does the majority of the team return win or lose the cup?
. I feel for Stu, but his time here might just be over.
Better to concentrate on the present. Let’s go Oilers!! Finish this.
Bouchard isn’t going anywhere. There is no chance this team goes far in the playoffs next year without him.
– Not worried about Bouch. He will sign an 8 year deal here
– The Walman trade was influenced by the EK injury, and the need for both a LHD and RHD.
– majority of the team is signed. So yeah guessing they return.
– Stu/ pickard are gonna need to run it back next year. Can’t afford a different goalie, so stus time is not done yet.
Notable about Bouch: he can play anywhere he wants, but only one team has McDavid and Draisaitl.
Without Bouchard this team might not make it out of the first round next season. You move heaven & earth to keep him.
Bouchard will be in the HOF one day.
Bouchard is if huge importance to the success of this team.
This is wild stuff.
Lots of work to do this off-season. On the goalie front, I don’t think we have the cap space to get a new (better and more expensive) tender for the start of next season. The current tandem is proven able to get the team to the dance. At the trade deadline however, if we have some goalie wobble, I don’t see management making the same “let it ride” call as this year, regardless of the outcome of this cup final.
Wow, what a turn around from Game 3 and P1 of Game 4. Unbelievable. Sure looked dire after 20. Full marks to the turn around and the win, but not a good way to start a game. The Oil need to be better prepared for puck drop.
Too many penalties, and maybe deservedly, but it’s especially galling that the same plays by the Panthers aren’t called. Felt like the Oilers beat the Panthers and the Refs last night.
I don’t care about the 3 straight penalties called against the Panthers. The should have been called earlier. And there should have been a 4th straight, but the hit to Bouchard’s numbers inexplicably wasn’t called.
Rest up men! I suspect we see Klingberg back in for Stecher in Game 5.
No idea who starts in goal.
Picard starts in goal. The team plays better in front of him.
Do they? This team has played its best hockey of the season in rounds 2 and 3 – in front of Skinner.
I was furious when Hrudy and gang talked about how the Oilers were taking penalties that the refs will never miss. And yet the Panthers had just as many high sticks as the oilers in P1. Just no calls.
I really thought that the refs were discussing the CV hit on Bouchard to determine if it warranted a 5-min major. Turns out leaving your feet and boarding a player in the numbers so that his head smokes the plexi is a perfectly acceptable hockey play to these bought-and-paid-for servants of Gary. Now, if Kane did that, it is most probably a 5 and a game with a suspension to follow.
I said it last night and I’ll say it again… Podzilla has the “game” our Oilers needed. He’s had an exceptional series, but yesterday’s performance was truly outstanding. He scores the tying goal and contributes the primary assist on Leon’s game winner. I luv this young man’s game, his puck pursuit is unmatched and his endless energy is so welcome. What a “get” he has proven to be.
I think it’s pretty safe to say that both teams are capable of ridiculously high levels of play that is just not sustainable over 60 minutes which leads to huge momentum swings
The Oilers can definitely sustain it for 60 mins. The template is game 5 against the Kings and game 4 against the Golden Refs.
We need to figure out the PK or Maurice will be happy trading penalties.
Nurse in the box after that horrendous call on barkov. Mutering “omg my god that’s pathetic ” After the Tkachuk goal ” y’all gotta be f***ing kidding me man”.
Ive been here 2 wins away heck 3 wins away. despise SCF game 7s but maybe this year is something else finally being in Edmonton. Go oilers go
I have no issue with nurse getting a penalty there (despite the acting oversell job). What I have issues with are the non calls on Panthers high sticks, and the bouchard hot from behind.
That trip was definitely a penalty.
Had two friends text me after the 1st and said it was all over, I replied that there was a comeback and a win coming. They asked me what I was smoking.
I may need to replenish the cigarette tin and stock up on some new drapes today but damn it was worth it.
And to the poster who was blasting, beating and kicking the drum for Pickard to play… I owe you a beer, Reja.
I’ve been calling this team the Cardiac Kids for awhile now.
i have become full blown superstitious. After the game was 3-0 i took off my jersey and turned the game off until it was 3-3.
Watched the rest
We were wearing our jerseys right-side-out last night, as per usual. The big difference in my ritual was singing the anthem en francaise. Plus we had the only dog that can stand the tension of hockey on the couch between us. Will be doing the same for Games 5 & 6 (& 7, if required). Fans got to do what fans got to do.
Go Oilers !
That win last night defies logic, and that is what is baffling. It was logical and even reasonable to assume they were out if it at the end of the first. And then the team’s alter ego steps up. In my view, those of us who thought the game was over after the first, take consolation that this was a logical and rational mindset. And then mysteriously things happen, like the second period etc….teaches me to believe in mystery and bags of magic beans. And then logic enters again, can the Oilers rely on the mysterious magic beans again and again?
I’m always amazed when people say “you were wrong” when in fact any rational reading of the game after one period suggested another beat down. The Oilers are an outlier, and as such, are capable of real surprise. That doesn’t in any way impact the idea that being down 3-0 after one period in a SCF game is a very bad place to be. Credit to them for doing it, but the misery of that first period is also in the guide and record book. Highest ceiling, lowest floor.
Well put LT. I wonder about the wonder of this outlier team. Oh to watch a team that can be invisible and then turn it on, only to have some more invisible moments like the beginning of overtime ranks as an outlier indeed. Indeed we see their best…and zoom, we get plunked to the basement. Hard on the psyche to be sure
This Oiler team are the definition of the ‘come-back-kids’ and may be the most resilient playoff NHL team of all time. 7 come-from-behind wins in the playoffs is a great accomplishment.
The 1987 finals were just as nerve-wracking but in reverse. The Flyers won 3 games with the vaunted Oilers giving up a 3-goal lead and two 2-goal leads in those losses. Oilers won the cup in 7 – but absolutely gut wrenching to watch.
I will update my Oilers-in-5 prediction to Oilers-in-6. Selfishly I wanted them to win at home in 5 but now want them to win it in 6 at Sunrise. Please Oilers do not allow this to go to 7 – just win the next two.
Kane has to keep control of his stick. If he takes another bad penalty on Saturday night…
Kane and Nurse are targeted by the Refs whereas Ekbald and Tkachuk have full immunity.
It’s true that Kane is totally targeted by the refs.
It’s also true that he has to keep control of his stick.
The Oilers need to use the refs as fuel, just like they’ve used “can you guys play defense?” as fuel.
It’s a big damned worry for sure.
KK yesterday stated that Stretcher not playing was a coaches decision, then in the same interview said he hadn’t talked to dr.s yet in regards to his availability in game 5. Sounds like an injury to me, and some head games. Hopefully not a head injury.
Would have to think Klingberg is the easy swap if there’s any question there, especially with last change, and then Arvy comes in for Kane if he’s played his way into the doghouse. Skinner seemed like he did enough to get another game. Good to have some depth.
Coaches and the leadership group need to have a sit down with Kane. But no way am I taking Kane out of GM5 for anyone let alone Arvy.
Kane brings a needed physical element. But he needs a serious warning that he could be scratched for G6.
No. This is the team, warts and all. No one’s healthy scratching Kane, hopefully they can influence him without using the big stick. Dude wants to win too.