The dice have no memory. We know it’s true. Still, the mind wants to believe the Edmonton Oilers have momemtum after an all-time comeback in enemy territory on Thursday evening.
We’re deep in the series now, there are fantastic performances on both teams that warrant Conn Smythe consideration. In the SCF, the leading five-on-five points total for the Oilers side is shared by Leon Draisaitl (4, 2-1-3), Mattias Ekholm (4, 1-2-3), Vasily Podkolzin (4, 1-2-3) and Kasperi Kapanen (4, 0-3-3).
Draisaitl also heads up the power-play scorers (2-1-3) and captain Connor McDavid has three PP assists.
I’m in the extreme minority, but for me the five-on-five points-60 is the best way to evaluate performance. Not everyone gets power-play time, but four lines of forwards and three pairs of defnesemen play at five-on-five every night. Here are the leaders at five-on-five points-60 in the final:
- Vasily Podkolzin 4.06
- Kasperi Kapanen 3.95
- Viktor Arvidsson 3.59
- Leon Draisaitl 2.36
- Mattias Ekholm 2.3
- Jake Walman 1.76
- Darnell Nurse 1.44
- Evan Bouchard 1.44
- Adam Henrique 1.15
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.08
- Evander Kane 0.89
- Connor McDavid 0.77
This is a small sample (four games) and far too soon to call any single player out. However, it does tell us that suppression of Connor McDavid’s offense has reached untenable.
If we compare the captain’s five-on-five points-60 during the final (0.77, as above) to his performance in the rest of the 2025 postseason (3.45) excluding the final, we know regression is nigh. However, regression does not run on a schedule, so the 2025 playoffs could end without a McDavid hot streak.
The biggest question for Oilers fans today: Does Connor McDavid kick out the jams and lay waste to this Stanley Cup Final. The dice have no memory. The past is past. Regression screws off until someday. Is today someday? Answers at six.
Maurice is a great coach, and his team plays his style that he wants them to play and he obviously has a game plan that he wants them to play against the Oilers and it has been working most of this final series. Zito has given him exactly what he needs for this type of game. They are a big heavy team that can skate and are just beasts . I just can’t see Edmonton beating them now.
The Oilers coming out completely flat in the last 2 games is a tell tale sign that ( to me) is showing they are tired and seem to be fading now. Yes they had a tremendous comeback, but showing up last night and not showing any major push in the first 2 1/2 periods is a mystery. One poster mentioned sickness? Maybe, but they just look a step or 2 slower than that Dallas series. Florida is such a well balanced team. I just don’t think the Oilers have the horses to catch them now. From top to bottom they are very good at each position. The Oilers have some holes for sure and Florida doesn’t.
I do hope the Oilers come out and play the best game of the playoffs on Tuesday. They owe it to themselves and the fans as well. Bring it back to Edmonton and who knows as the 7 th games can be a crapshoot. They will need all hands on deck and giving it everything. You would hope they can do it, but I do expect Florida to come out hard as hell as well.
Guess we see what are bots are really made of on Tuesday.
The Oilers have been flat for too much of this series. Why?
I wonder whether they’re disturbed, as in down with the sickness.
Have to think the media would have caught on by now if the Oilers had a sickness in the room, and reported on it.
I wonder if the team with a recently revealed practice of taking PEDs has an advantage.
Except for a couple lucky bounces, this series should be 5-0 Panthers at this point.
This is objectively false. The Oilers outchanced and outplayed Florida each of the first 2 games, based on expected goals. At 2-3, that’s exactly where they deserved to be at this point.
Losing game 2 was the turning point in this series. I blame the refs for that one. It would be a completely different series had they held serve at home, and gone to Florida with a 2-0 series lead.
FBRs. Faceoffs, battles, races. Oilers on the wrong end of way too many.
Oilers have yet to show up for a complete game this series. I do not think its possible at this point. Panthers are a fast running train and oilers are trying to stop it with a lantern. With no injuries to the glimmer twins I was expecting this to be better than last year’ run. I will no way undermine connor as a player but as a leader? I will hold it until he hangs his boots. Crosby won with much less I think. Still time to redeem the season. Will the real oilers show up? We wait!
Complete no show today. Man, what a disappointing performance.
Like everyone has said that was a hard one to watch.
Truth be told games 1 and 2 were a coin flip.
Game 3 happend. As awsome as it was lady luck shone on us in game 4. Then somehow the oilers forgot to show up for game 5. We’ve been played even or out classed in every game so far.
Truth hurts, and on reflection im getting a sinking feeling this razor thin super close series hasnt actually been that close.
Someone please tell me I’m wrong.
You’re not wrong.
The Oilers have been blown out in 2 of the 5 games. The only two games that they’ve won was by the skin of their teeth in OT.
Time to take ake off the homer glasses and acknowledge that Florida is a better team. Yes, the refs played a role … losing game 2 in the manner that they did really hurt our chances.
But Bennett, Marchand, Tkachuk, Barkov, Reinhart, Lundell are just better overall than McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH + any three Oilers forwards that have played in these Finals that you want to add.
Ekblad, Forsling, Jones and MIkkola are better than Bouchard, Ekholm, Nurse, Walman … Nurse has mostly been a liability, and Ekholm clearly isn’t 100%.
And the obvious …. Bob is better than Skinner/Pickard.
I think KK has done a fantastic job getting this roster to another Finals … but he just doesn’t have enough to work with to counter an absolutely stacked Florida team.
Absolutely. Plus its a game of inches. Oilers get one more bounce its 3-2 and itf panthers get a bounce in G1 we are talking off season. Injuries and too many miles have caught up to the oilers. Need some young legs next season. Connor and leon are not getting any younger. Just need one cup to cement their legacy.
You are wrong. The Oilers were the better team in games 1 and 2. Bob stole game 2, Picks stole game 4. 3-2 with 3 OT games is a close series
You need to take off your homer glasses … the Oilers have been in 3 of 5 games. The Panthers have had a chance to win all 5 games. Save for a couple of lucky bounces (e.g. Draisaitl’s OT goal in game 4), this Finals series would already be over.
I’m just stating facts. To say that we’ve played even is false. 3 of the 5 games were close, but the Oilers were the better team in the first 2, and the last 50 mins of game 4. That’s about half the series.
I’m not saying that I’m overly optimistic about our chances, but it’s hyperbole to say that a 3-2 series has been domination
Aside from starting Stu in game 6, there isn’t any other meaningful lineup change that’s going to juice this team any further.
The only way the Oilers come back now and win this thing is if McDavid and Draisaitl will them to victory, like so many legends before them. So far they’ve been outplayed by Florida’s top forwards, and it’s been the depth guys that have carried them this far. It’s particularly galling that they’ve squandered their opportunities on the PP … they’ve so become predictable and stale, that I wish the refs would just swallow their whistles and not call anything either way moving forward.
Lose two Cup finals in a row and we need to remove the ‘generational’ tag from Connor … more like ‘great talent that couldn’t get it done’. They’re still HoFers, but they’re not in the pantheon of greats.
Well pensive not aggressive low physicality and bad goalkeeping. They are doing ok with career ahl’er and backup in net. Lack of drive starts somewhere. I hope but don’t believe.
We as fans brought it, but the team gave us little to cheer about. So close on the PPs but not much else 5 on 5 after the first 10 mins.
Tactically the forwards needs to stop bolting to the boards at the center line and move up as a unit.
Marchand looked like McDavid, while McDavid was ineffective for 50 minutes
Bobrovsky was more lucky than good tonight. A better attack and a little more finish and he could have had another 2-3 GA
Lots of upbeat fans on the street. I wish I could be so positive. I have tickets to game 7 and would love to come back.
I’m pretending they didn’t quite close out that comeback and won this game in a responsible manner. That’s what a normal team would have done and if there’s no momentum anyway this makes it much more palatable to be in the place we’re at.
Give it a try. It’s fun!
I’d sit Kane. If he’s not pressuring, hitting or intimidating then he’s doing nada. Sit Freddy. Insert Ryan, Kap and Klinger. Ryan can win draws, pk and saw off minutes. Klinger can move the puck north. Kap knows that he had to smother.
Stu in for Picks.
Stu will have the ultimate motivation. Win and you live to fight another day.
It’s not the time to try to pound them into submission. It’s time to outskill them with the puck,
We are best when we have the puck on our sticks. Its the lineup that can move the puck.
Ryan is done, lap bleeds chances and Kane has been told not to play physical.
Bennett with 3rd star.
1 goal.
No infractions.
At some point you have to start thinking it’s hopeless.
Really hope the real Oilers show up to the next one…this one was just sad to watch. Feel sorry for the fans tonight. This team is still good enough but not the team that came to play tonight.
2 more wins boys…we believe.
Oilers had 8-1 and 5-1 wins last year trying to even up the series. Hard to see anything close to that happening this year based on the game they’ve brought so far.
Game 7 in Edmonton on Friday night is going to be a night!
Keep the faith.
I like how you think.
This is the way. This city has earned it.
after that game it’s hard to imagine but this team is full of surprises
Well, that was disappointing. Crowd was ready to go and the team gave almost nothing… this is a crowd that will recognize big hits, forechecks, puck battles, blocks. There was almost nothing to cheer for.
agree with the comments about 97s legacy. Someone needs to ask him what he wants his legacy to be, his defensive effort and decision making were so poor tonight. He needs to commit to the small things, and he didn’t tonight. Same for 29.
Not sure on lineup, but Stecher/Janmark out for Klingberg/Kapanen is a start. I’ll repeat my regrets that Savoie is not an option.
Not trying to create excuses. All the pundits keep saying that we look hesitant. There’s a reason for this, the officials have repeatedly called us for almost every infraction, deserved or not. Conversely Florida is getting away with egregious infractions. This has created uncertainty on how they can play and a fear of getting penalized for playing the same aggression as Florida.
You’ll never win if that’s the factor
If that’s the head space of a team the game is lost before it’s even started.
Beginning of the game, Florida had some wobble, they allowed 2 odd man rushes, but then that was it.
They played a near perfect game of smothering the Oilers every time the Oilers gained possession of the puck.
McDavid and Draisaitl looked ineffective, not because they were not trying ( they are giving it all) but because of how well Florida executed their defensive scheme.
while I have hope the Oilers can win 2 in a row, from my basement the Conn Smythe looks to be a tossup between Marchand and Bennett.
They bury Oilers don’t
Bennett talking about learning
What if the Oilers did that?
Slot wide open far too much. Why???
Who was that… what happened to our strong, fast, and skilled play? Gone like the wind. It felt like we were playing scared when we should have been playing aggressive. Everyone off their game? Just an off night? Doesn’t matter anymore… now we NEED a game 7. These guys gotta get ready for the toughest game of their lives in Florida. Can’t be looking backwards or too far forward… one game to win, game 6.
“Tonight I say, we must move forward, not backward! Upward, not forward! And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!”
“Upward and downward, upward and downward… Monica!”
Tired. Disjointed. Injured.
Need a save. Need a bounce.
Both teams looked near exhausted, but one team capitalized on every chance they got.
As our dear host has stated many times, “the absence of choice makes the path clear.”
No way out now.
Oilers in 7.
The lack of urgency was dumbfounding. We need our backs against the wall to bring out our best, I guess.
Welp, our backs are absolutely against the wall. I, for one, believe this will bring out our best.
We looked slow and tired. Spent too much time defending, that Florida forecheck is stiffling. Maybe if we had Hyman and Klingberg was playing as well as earlier we’d have a bit more jamm.
Honestly, not sure if I’ve ever been more disappointed in an Oilers effort…it was one thing to cheer for a basement dweller during the decade of darknes with low expectations to begin with, but when you have the two best players in the world and great depth and that’s what we get…cmon man.
Utter fail. If they were clearly better it would be different. It’s not that, it’s the Oilers and their coaches not getting it done
Did the Oilers throw 1 body check tonight? Softer than a wet fart. 37 year old dancing around like Mario on them.
Hate to say this but 97s legacy is on the line.
Can’t lose back to back years to the same team.
Crosby and then Pens did it in ‘09 being down 3-2. We wait.
He’s been poor. Legacy isn’t built on that
If he wants to climb Mt. Rushmore with 99, 66, 87, then go get it, or don’t.
Connor and Leon’s natural style is what the Panthers play, attack all of the time
They do it even though it’s outside of the system
Ugghhhjhh. Puke
Anyone here predicting the Panthers to be flat on Tues & the Oilers to come out flying ?
Me either
To me a very disappointing game. Oilers had a chance to control their path to the cup. They looked slow, lethargic, and tentative tonight. Tired or nervous, not sure. Were kept out of the slot and hemmed in their own zone a lot. Not done yet but won’t win again playing this style.
Oilers having home ice “advantage” means nothing if they don’t take advantage of it. Especially if they don’t get to game 7. Oilers NEED to score first to have any real chance to win the next one. Miracle comebacks can only happen so often, double so when you’re PP is hot trash.
Ok. We can’t sit back and try to out smart these guys.
We gotta attack. Every shift.
We are best when we attack.
Attack them like your life depends on it!
Because it does…
Like it’s that easy… Panthers know how to play attack hockey too you know. Like, They REALLY know how…
Oilers attack any more and the refs will keep them in the box all game. That’s half the problem. They’re stuck between a rock and a hard place.
With fans like this, who needs enemies…
OILERS IN SEVEN!!!
It’s the puck management. Very poor decisions
Hesitant, is what I saw. We kept waiting for something to open up instead of moving the puck north and letting our guys battle. We sat back and they jumped us. That’s what we have to change, imo. We need to move the puck north, win puck battles and attack.
We looked hesitant and played into their game.
We are an attacking team and play best when we dictate the flow.
I expect a faster game on Tuesday.
Gonna have to dump and chase if the Panthers get to their game
Normally I don’t think Hyman is as impactful as most do, but how he was playing these playoffs he is surely missed
tis cruel to score a goal down by three with only 3 min left…
no way they have enough time to tie it (they will not get any favours from bad reffing like the ducks did in 2017)
Perry kissed a goal, and I liked it!
who would have thought throwing pucks on net with traffic would produce offense. They’re down to 1 40 year old who consistently goes to the net now that Hyman is out
BOOM. That’s one
Two more to make it one more, then one more!
One more to make it one more, then two more!
I will settle for lots more, then several more.
Panthers have been the better team yes, but aided significantly the fact they have literally gotten every single bounce this game, including directly for 2 of their goals. Same as it ever was it feels like.
Could have been 2-0 good guys early. But wasn’t. And the rest played out like a game in February.
It’s funny about ‘bounces’, the better team tends to cash in on them more often. There’s also truth in the old saying about creating your luck / bounces.
They’re oh-so-close… next year, can the Oilers establishment add critical pieces like the Panthers did this year?
Could have been worse after period 1. This team has had troubles putting 60 min together at various points throughout the season
Allowing breakaways from blue line in off a center ice faceoffs….not sure how they even made the playoffs…
One goal every minute
LETS DO THIS!!!
It doesn’t matter who anyone added it matters how you play
The 06 team were underdogs the whole way
The Oilers can be better but won’t do what’s needed. Be it yips or coaching
Oilers have played two stinkers and won two coin flip OT games. Rats have been in every game and while playing tentative in a period here or there, have contested everything. Nothing is written yet but Oilers going to have to bring their two best game of the series against an opponent who seems to have no weaknesses, is operating at full health, and is the defending champion. This is a very tall order and while I will never count them out, I’m not optimistic about our chances.
This might be the most disappointed, in a sort of parental way, I’ve ever been in a team.
The “box of chocolates” performances continue.
Pull the goalie. See what happens
It may just be that Florida is a better team, top to bottom, especially with Hyman out and Nuge, etc. banged up. It’s been a good run, but sometimes you gotta acknowledge a superior opponent, who got better this year with astute additions.
Oilers have done what they could.
Tis true. The better team usually wins.
I don’t know how any objective person could watch this game and think Edmonton had anything. Florida is putting on an absolute clinic. They’re forcing every oilers offensive rush to the outside.
FLA’s play has had almost nothing to do with this game.
And the Oilers only need 2Ws. Don’t act like this is it.
Don’t agree. The team with better players usually wins when ducks are in a row
These ducklings don’t walk in a line
Nope. No quit. But Oilers need to start game 6 on time.
I have zero faith that this will be the case
This is the defending champions, losing (to my recollection) nobody of consequence over the offseason, then adding Jones and Marchand at the deadline.
We’re up against a stunningly deep team. God do I wish the Maple Leaves were better…
Some teams just have your number. Florida is better on D and G, with 3 centres that are 2-way beasts. The perfect formula to negate the glimmer twins. We lost the leader of our forecheck in Hyman, and the goaltending hasn’t won any games for us.
Florida is the better team.
So all we have to do now is win back to back games.
It’s do-able.
Completely.
It absolutely is doable.
So you’re saying there’s a chance . . . ?
Kapanen out makes even less sense watching this game.
And Connor Brown still in a high profile role.
Yeah Arvidsson looked really bad tonight
Connor Brown hasn’t done a thing in forever, but he’s the coach’s damn Toby…so there he is no matter what.
Invisible
I can’t imagine paying 2000 dollars to watch this garbage.
They said a glass seat went for $13 400.
4 goals on 17 shots
Woof
Principal will see the net again
This.
Time to start bringing everyone. Damn the tactics!!! Go right at em!!!
Stu to save the day in 6 and 7………
Oh yeah. It’s his net now.
Why did McDrai play every shift for the last 5 minutes? Seemed like that anyways.
Knoblauch is overplaying them big time.
Didn’t like the lineup decisions heading in, but hoped they had something from skates or practices or whatever.
Clearly not.