Everyone has an opinion, most have a theory. The great thing about sports is there is no script. In this SCF, momentum takes a powder, game to game, period to period, hell, shift to shift. In last year’s final, the Edmonton Oilers went down three games to zero on June 13, then roared back to force a Game 7.
I am convinced the Oilers need an outlet wrinkle. Something that allows a controlled breakout and gives the team a chance to win the puck deep in Florida’s zone. We haven’t seen that much in the Florida series, but we did see more of it when John Klingberg was part of the defensive six. Perhaps we’ll see it again.
I would also bring back Kasperi Kapanen, he’s a game rooster and has good speed and just enough fearlessness to go balls out into every corner of the rink (and to the net).
Stuart Skinner may or may not be the starter tonight, I would play him. The Oilers could be spending a pretty penny at the position over the summer, this might be his last chance Texaco.
Lots of talk about Trent Frederic’s rumoured signing, much of it surrounding the player’s performance in the postseason. Frederic is the owner of a 1.01 pts-60 resume at five-on-five this playoff season. Among regulars, only Corey Perry (0.99 pts-60) has a lower number. He has a 64 percent on-ice goal share at five-on-five (52 percent expected).
In his three full seasons with the Bruins before 2024-25, he was a capable middle-six scorer and was on the good side of the goal share five-on-five (via Natural Stat Trick). I’m not going to convince you of this player, but will tell you that, for me, he’s a good target for Edmonton. He is 27, his foot speed has returned after a slower regular season (NHL Edge) and his cap number will come in well below the (possibly) exiting Evander Kane. I hope they sign him.
On the Lowdown today, Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will be our feature guests, and the formidable trio of Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson and Josh Fenwick will form the Lowdown roundtable and discuss tonight’s big game. Noon to 2, Sports 1440.
Man, such an unlikeable team… https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/carter-verhaeghe-leaves-florida-panthers-practice-early-after-working-alone-1.2322877
— has a team ever lost back to back Stanley Cups?
— Basically seems impossible to do. So Oilers for the win.
St Louis lost three in a row.
Was in Miami for game 7 last year. This year I’m just outside of Vik, Iceland hoping to see the boys drag em back again. Anyone have a stream option I might try with a basic iPad?
CBC GEM is no charge.
SportsNet is my streaming app.
They are going to sign Trent Frederic for 7 x $3 million (not to mention the assets they traded for him) after they refused to pay Dylan Holloway 2 x $2.3 million.
I suspect they might have signed Holloway 7x3M. But yes, not a great look, though Frederic was a better player the two previous years. I actually think it might work out, but wish we had Holloway too.
Literally no bottom six player is worth that term commitment.
Not. A. One.
It was timing and the cap, not about Holloway. With a cap it’s a dynamic system. What happens this post regular season has different factors
2×2.3, followed by 7-8 per. I agree in the here and now he would have been a bargain
Regardless of what happens in the next 2 games (hopefully 2), I sincerely hope Florida somehow gets worse in the offseason. I am so, so tired of these guys.
If they resign bennett then good luck. And given how their games gets reffed noone is getting past them in next few years. Bettman is mighty pleased that florida has finally gained 10 more fans and hockey is now the #7 sport as opposed to #9 on american people list.
I don’t see that happening. Their GM is building a dynasty. I think Bowman the Younger is doing the same w Oilers. It may be several SCFs with Rats v Oilers. Oilers job is not to wait for Rats to fade, but to learn how to beat them, consistently. They have set a much higher bar than Kings, Vegans, Stars. Tonight Oilers can show they’re up for this (long term) challenge.
I think it’s unlikely the Oilers reach the SCF again next year. Too much randomness in hockey and their winning strategy isn’t as consistent as Florida’s.
Once Oil found their rhythm, that success was evidently repeatable through three series. It’s FLA alone that’s jammed them.
Dear LT, your Lowdown round tables are interesting and thoughtful- and entertaining. I can’t say the same for a couple of regulars who can’t get past their let’s-blame-the-goalie default.
You may not have received the text I sent (I was listening to Lowdown later, via podcast), but my point was: goalies are important, but rarely are they the secret sauce (Dryden in 1971 was that sauce, but that never happened again in his career; other examples elude me).
This year’s best goalies and their teams have been eliminated (Vasilevsky and Keumper in the first round, Hellebuyck and Oettinger not long after).
This series is, so far, not being won or lost by Bob, Stu, Cal. Oilers are behind 2-3 because they can’t get shots on Bob. Panthers are ahead because forecheck is their defence.
Please, ask your analytics guest to talk about analytics as her opinions on goalies are less than useful. Her gaffes on who’s to blame for July 1 contracts is a tell.
Same with your guy in the truck. His stories about hockey and broadcasting history are a treat, his goalie opinions not so much.
Meanwhile, your young round table panel comes across as measured and thoughtful. Kudos to them, and you, for that.
ps. The Deboer blame-the-goalie debacle in Dallas is another tell: when the coach comes up so short in understanding and communicating why the team lost that he pins it on the goalie… it’s time to go. I’d say the same for any fan or pundit who thinks Stu or Cal are the reason this team (18 skaters plus goalie) has failed to redeem our hopes, their promise as a team.
Pps. To add to the goalies/success conundrum: two good-great goalies could not Will their teams into the playoffs, even after major contracts. Swayman, Shesterkin – any coach would want these on their team. But for them to be worth the money, the team has to be worthy of fronting them. Again, they are only one player in a team with five other skaters on the ice. You want miracles and magic. But you’re a fool if you expect that.
Praying for a 2nd G7 summit in Alberta Friday.
GOil! Clap clap!
One of my somewhat-connected friends mentioned there was a McDavid rant after Game 5. Hopefully it wasn’t “dig up, stupid!”
Was he ranting at himself? Sure hope so.
He wasn’t great but the majority of his team no showed. The battle level was nowhere close. I would hope the captain would address it.
I was thinking about how this entire season has been subpar, at least by his miraculous standards. Too few shots (190, lowest since his 45 game rookie season).
Given how he won the Conn Smythe last year and his general big game performances, either something is wrong or Florida really has figured him out, going back to Game 6 last year.
He’s second-guessing again.
I really hope they have someone who knows how to snap him out of it.
— it’s my wife’s b-day today
— what better present to give her than a game 7 I ask?!
LFGOILERS!!!
If the cold I got is the same one that hit some of the oilers players I can see why they’ve been playing with low energy. Hope it made its way into the panthers locker room
Are there rumors they’ve been sick?
Knoblauch was pretty sick early in the series. Very evident in his pressers. A couple of early-series “maintenance days” were, I believe, attributed to illness. I can’t remember the players affected, but someone here in these comments suggested they breathe (or cough?) on Tkachuk, Barkov.
Knobby and Brown were sick. But everything is tight lipped. Someone could get decapitated and they’d call it an upper body injury
It is damn brutal.
Far side winger needs to fly the zone to take the two D with him. Everyone else support the puck carrier
I think the Oilers are providing their fans with an exciting series. Much like last year, fatigue and injuries play a major role in who comes out on top. I think the dye was partially cast at the trade deadline. Oilers picked up Wakeman ( playing good) and Fredrick ( only averages due to nagging injury)… meanwhile Florida picked up Jones( arguably their best overall D man) and Marchand ( he’s been excellent challenging Bennett and Bob for MVP)… add the lose of Hyman and that is a lot to overcome. It is not impossible that Oilers win tonight and take the series back home but the task is huge and will take their best effort yet knowing Florida will be very motivated to close the series at home. I will be cheering loudly for our team and hoping for victory. Enjoy the ride it’s been very entertaining.
How did it come to this though? How did the rest of the league (Chicago and Boston specifically) let Florida load up like they did? Did they want to hand them another cup? They were out so they just didn’t give a shit? It’s so frustrating that the Oilers have their best team in decades and they have to run up against this scenario.
Perry has the lowest 5v5 scoring and continues to play with McDavid. He’s had a fantastic playoffs and has been great on the PP but I dunno. I get he has the Hyman role to play.
And Kane with Drai – has that ever worked?
Oh well, gotta give it all tonight. If this team struggles to get up for this game, something must be wrong. Maybe we need another “dig in” moment from Connor.
10 years in and we still dont have proper wingers for the glimmer twins. Catostophic! I know hyman is injured but we have plugs playing with the best passer in the league.
They really could use some more natural scorers on the top 6 wings, that play 200 ft or a willing to. That usually means a great shot and ability to finish. To me if that happened Connor sees a new level
How many of these do you think are actually in the league?
You mean the plug that leads the team in goals?
Well one of the best goal scorers in the league has his arm in a brace. Nuge is injured, we’re definitely a top 6 winger short without those injuries. But the injuries made it a lot worse.
Zach Hyman
Nuge
Jeff Skinner
Evander Kane
Arvidsson
None of those are even close to “plugs” whether they are playing in the top 6 or not.
Skinner/kane/arvidsson are not playing like top 6 wingers. I dont care whether you are a plug or not..if you dont produce whats the point? Titles mean nothing..absolutely nothing.
Game 6 SCF with the Oilers in it. Hope we all enjoy it!
I for one am enjoying every second of this. I didn’t live through the decade of darkness just to overlook how truly special this team has become. Florida is the goods. When we’ve lost it’s been more about them than us imo.
If we lose this series(not happening tonight though) then I know we’ll be back in the finals at least a couple times over the next half decade. We will get ours.
Connor is inevitable.
Regardless of what happens in this series, I can see another Oilers v Panthers SCF next year. These are two good teams building towards greatness.
Please Hockey Gods give the City of Champions a game seven.
Referees Jean Hebert and Chris Rooney are back from Game 2 (FLA W 5-4 2OT) and Game 4 (EDM W 5-4 OT) of the Stanley Cup Final.
This duo – taking the ice together for the fourth time this postseason – was previously put together in the first round to handle Game 7 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers (FLA W 6-1).
https://scoutingtherefs.com/2025/06/49213/todays-nhl-stanley-cup-final-referees-and-linespersons-6-17-25/
IMO Those two are the better of the officials represented in the playoffs. I like that they group and and discuss. Mostly they have been getting it right. Oilers cannot afford any more of “I will show them who is the star” Mcaully. When the game becomes more about the officials than the players – is when the real hockey fans give up. Apparently, Americans and non lifetime hockey fans – like the officials showboating.
I am not sure if the boys are just gassed from the deep playoff runs over last couple of years. But look across the ice and you have a team that went to 3 finals in a row and it seems they can go for another round without breaking a sweat. Its been a fun playoff but not showing up for the one complete game in the finals is a bummer. I understand panthers are good but leafs were able to take them to G7 with half the roster oilers supposedely have. Baffling. Lets see if we get the floor or the ceiling tonight. Enjoy the game and godspeed, CMD!
“It’s f*ckin hockey! You go til you can’t go no more!” – Shoresey
I would swap Walman and Kulak but that’s OK – I generally like this set-up:
Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
·
45m
RNH-McD-Perry
Kane-Draisaitl-Kapanen
Skinner-Henrique-Frederic
Podkolzin-Janmark-Brown
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Kulak
Walman-Klingberg
Skinner in starters net.
Kulak on the right side really struggles with the weak passes up the boards, which get hemmed in every time. If Klingberg looks more like the previous rounds, they can fade Nurse/Kulak a bit.
Perry at 5v5 isn’t great, I actually would like to see Podz up there for a few shifts (but with RNH in the handedness doesn’t work). Maybe McD will centre Podz/Brown for a few.
Le sigh. Maybe one day in the future Edmonton will sort out the Leftorium. Or, maybe not. It makes me sad that this has been a thing for so many years. Its not just Defense. Its also forwards/centers. Then you ask any coach including Woody and KK, they say its not as important as some think. Maybe its just talk, but to me it is one of things that hold this team back.
imo, it’s less a leftorium issue and more a lack of depth on RD. Before the start of the season there was no Wahlman, so our LD was only as deep as Kulak, and that was pretty much it. I would hardly call that a leftorium… yet RD was even more abysmal with just Bouchard and Stetcher looking like bonafide NHL options. They added Emberson in-season, but he just isn’t ready for this level yet (if ever, but here’s hoping) and Klingberg. Wahlman was a great addition that you make every day of the week if that opportunity comes up, and it just so happened to push Kulak down. If we had real RD depth, he’d be riding the bench or platooning with our other LD, but he just happens to play better than our RD not named Bouchard and Klingberg, so it just makes sense to play him there. The fix isn’t to scrap our depth on LD, it’s to get more actual NHL players that play RD (and/or hope Emberson improves if we resign him, I’m thinking Klinger is out of here on a fat contract next year).
Agreed. We need right handed Kulak. Ekholm-Walman-Nurse is solid if expensive. If we could get a 2RD and then have Stecher/Emberson for 3rd pair, and give Emberson another season to see if he develops further, that would be idea.
Really don’t like Kane next to Draisaitl.
Nor do i, however, the Oilers need Evander Kane to make a positive impact on these two games. He needs to be the player he was in the first 3 rounds and I think putting him in the top six gives him the best chance to perform in that manner.
We need all our forwards to get in on the forecheck. Kane hasn’t had much jump, and he doesn’t deal with being demoted well IMO. Now he is back on a feature line, time to show up and create some space for 29.
It’s time for Arvi, JSkinner and even Henrique to justify their offseason signings.
Time to yank off the rear view mirror and put the pedal down, well not RV this game
LFG Oilers. No shaving until Friday !!!
I started the playoffs with the Kassian mutton chops… it’s since grown in and my lady is now calling me Jebediah. It’s a mess, hopefully I’ll be shaving Saturday, most likely Sunday so I have calm hands after the demon liquor.
Hoping the Oilers abandon the 150ft stretch passes in favour of wingers getting lower on the breakout. I don’t mind the attempt at this, but it was awful in game 5.
This. Also, special teams. I think the PP should be the best in the world bar nothing. That Florida is completely dominating this part of the series is nothing short of baffling and fire able offence. The fact that the coaches have not addressed it (yet) is even more baffling.
Lower wingers play straight into the Panthers forecheck. They will jam things up and force pucks from the wings to the middle.
You need your defencemen carrying the puck and the wingers pushing up – not wingers coming low OR the flip pass stuff. Neither of those 2 are the right choice.
Make the D and the F3 make choices, then exploit.
I hope they can get back to supporting the puck well and making plays to get some chances going. However it has to be done. And playing their D system well. They can do it
No worries, no fear, play your best game!
REFUSE to lose!
See ya back in Edmonton
Hoping the Oilers don’t make Marchard look like prime Lemieux again tonight.
Ekholm doesn’t even need to be prime Bourque, just normal Ekholm.
“Edmonton just took a hold of the series.”
“Everything turned in game 6, and Edmonton never looked back.”
“The Panthers out-played Edmonton in 4 of first 5 games but coudn’t close it out.”
Etc.
I have an imagination for pretty much any possibility, but none of the above are even remotely outlandish possible scenarios.
Let’s GO Edmonton.
Oilers have led for 33 minutes in this series? Florida has earned those 200 minutes of leading, but I don’t believe Oilers will get dominated game in and game out for an entire series. I hope that the tides change tonight and that we dominate a couple of games.
Per Rishaug:
Skinner in starters net.
Looks like Klingberg and Kapanen in, Arvidsson and Stecher out.
Kane up with 29 and 42.
No RNH on ice.
—————-
The “right” choices for me.
Am I to assume that the rumoured Podkolzin scratch was just that, a rumour?
The rumor was simply based on him being in Nuge’s spot for some line rushes yesterday but we were also advised that there were lots of different lines being shown at practice.
I was expecting the absolutely bewildered black cat for the photo after it bamboozled the Oil to a game 4 win.
Hope to see it tomorrow.
Get on track, bamboozle the Cats, smack some rats, and bring it on back…
to Alberta.
I should hope so. He’s not going to replace Kane’s offense.
Probably not, but it’s not just GF. 5v5 Frederic 1-1, Kane 3-4. Even Strength Frederic 7-5 GF% 58.33, Kane 17-13 GF% 56.67
I like Kane but he’s a wildcard. Kane Penalties/60 2.11 1st, Penalties Drawn/60 .58 11th. Frederic Penalties/60 1.76 3rd, Penalties Drawn 1.51 1st. Kane has been the main culprit with the first period penalties which is a big thing. Lots to consider when choosing between players
I feel that Kane penalties are *mostly* reputation based. Some fouls are definitely present. But that is why he is so rare. Frederick does not scare too many opponents but Kane legit does.
I’m not sure about that. Frederic taunted Tom Wilson an entire game as a Bruin to get him to go. Not too many guys would do that, and that Wilson didn’t drop them right away
But yes Kane is a menace. Both ways at times 🙂
First elimination game of our post season. Boys, its for real, game on! Go Oilers!
Considering the number of elimination games Edmonton faced and won last year, two in a row should be a breeze 🙂
I think that Frederic is likely to be value for $3.15MM for term but, at the same time, well, not sure he’s earned it. He certainly hasn’t played to that value this season, even prior to his injury in Boston.
Again, the bet probably works out given his skill set – from what I’ve heard out of Boston he can play center and I think get versatility is valuable.
Is his ceiling the 18G/40P with some secondary PK time?
The bet could work but is it a risk the Oilers should take? At the end of the day, the cap will be well over $120MM for most of the contract so l guess the risk is low – although every dollar will continue to matter as I presume this team will always be right up against the cap
Bowman as a GM operates like an investor. As unpleasant as it was he walked from two situations he said the math couldn’t support. Distressed asset Kapanen comes in for nothing and despite his warts has played a role in these playoffs. Same with Klingberg, with whom he had the chops to get. Then the Euro guys to replenish the system, me liking that they are usually NHL sized players. High skill small guys from outside NA have a long road to the NHL. There have been a few big wins over the years like Panarin etc, but’s it’s the exception
So with Frederic, there is an established level of success, he’s not aging out. Some folks thought the trade was an overpay, to me players like TF – size, defensive, can skate when not sporting a high ankle sprain, league top tough guy that has some hands – would have cost more if he had been at his norm. So another value play and thinking down the road
You need a mix of players which Bowman knows from those Cup teams. There is a cap and the team is too old. He looks for skill and for players that can play a rugged game. I think he values 200 ft players with some offensive upside. Those players are what contenders need
No one can predict the future, but I get what he’s doing. If that contract happens that cap hit with the cap increasing isn’t going to be a problem even with the term (which is why the cap hit is low. I’m positive he would get more open market because his type is rare and valued). Unlike the previous group, where it would have been at least 1M more. They paid Kassian that money years ago when it was a much bigger cap percentage, and Kassian was not the player healthy Frederic is, not as stable a person, at least consistently
By this theory, Kane should bring back A LOT.
I don’t think there are many who advocate for not signing Frederic. Rather, the issue is the rumoured 7 years.
Agree. This contract should be no more than 4 years given the injury. Some players never do come back all the way from lingering issues.
Term is almost meaningless if there’s no NMC. Just send him to Bakersfield. Of course, the Oilers like to hand out NMCs like candy, so…
Of course, sending a player to Bakersfield only reduces the cap hit by league min + $375K (although that could change under the new CBA in place for 2026/27).
I think an Oilers win would be a very nice present for my long suffering wife on our 25th anniversary today.
GOilers!
Happy Anniversary! That’s a milestone
Get Klingberg back in there for Stech – rested and ready to move the puck.
Get Kap back in there for Arvy – he needs to use that speed and size and bang bodies and create turnovers.
Get Stu in net. He can provide the great to excellent tending this team needs for 2 games. We know it. He’s done it before including in elimination playoff games.
Arvy sure but it’s probably going to be Skinner.
I would rather see him replace Frederic.
I’m waiting for Frederic to score a big goal – hopeful to see it tonight.
He has simply not done enough. Yes, lingering injury. Still, not enough to justify the spot in lineup. The options are thin and injury depth just not there. Need a couple big goals from unexpected places.
He hasn’t and, at the same time, I am hopeful he scores a big goal tonight – I can see it happening.
Just win!
Just a fan, not a numbers guy. Here’s hoping the guys get it together tonight and bring a game for the ages.
Lets Go Oilers! Anything can happen with this team so I am keeping my Friday night open.