Why are Oilers fans so disappointed? Two SCF’s lost in a row is a lot of pain. I think the sense of loss is tremendous, and it will take some time. Completely rational and appropriate reaction to losing the final.
What did you make of Connor McDavid’s comments? They were measured, as one would expect. There was a message in there, this Oilers team is going to have a tough time staying competitive because they’re aging out and any observer can see it.
What does it mean? Probably a shorter term contract. Maybe three years, maybe five. McDavid may not want to commit long term.
Oh, that’s bad. Not necessarily. It keeps management’s feet to the fire, and makes contending for a Stanley Cup a priority. The Oilers run profits no matter, and owner Daryl Katz wants to win as badly as you do, but this version of the Oilers has no real assets to trade, and has no cap room to make deals like the one we saw yesterday (Seattle Kraken). There’s not much room to wheel.
What will Stan Bowman’s summer look like? I think fans will be largely disappointed, unless they are Evan Bouchard boosters. Signing the defenseman will be the big play of the summer, and Bowman will need to trade Evander Kane, Viktor Arvidsson and Adam Henrique in order to reset the roster under the salary cap.
Who will replace those veterans? Money is too tight to mention. I wrote about it here. The Oilers need three of Matt Savoie and they have just one Matt Savoie. Signing Trent Frederic means the club would have exactly six forwards under 28 (Frederic, Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin, Max Jones, Noah Philp and Quinn Hutson), and some of those men won’t make the team.
Edmonton isn’t that old. Yeah they are. Old and second to the puck in the final. That’s death. Bowman is going to sign Frederic and trade Kane, that gets you six years younger at one position. Moving Matt Savoie in over Viktor Arvidsson saves the team a decade. The team needs to do more, maybe Noah Philp passes Mattias Janmark this coming season.
Why are you so upset about the age? Because there’s not a lot of upside. Corey Perry had a grand season at age 40, he really did. However, the cliff is out there, and it’s coming like a thief in the night. The Oilers have Savoie, but need more. They don’t have more, because it was all traded away or lost in the St. Louis offer sheet.
What do Oilers fans have to look forward to this summer? McDavid contract, Bouchard contract, one or two acquisitions who can play and are in their 20’s, and then that large group of Bowman finds from Sweden, Finland, NCAA and other hockey hot spots will get a chance to show what they can do. Make your deals at the deadline, and make the playoffs from October to February.
What about this investigation? It’s the NHL. They might pull back a draft pick, making Bowman’s job more difficult. It won’t change much, I think it’s Bettman showing he’s working on a problem that managers have been complaining about recently.
Can Bowman make a big splash? Bowman has a track record of making astute trades for players who emerge as more than they appear to be, and he’s signed some dandy players from Europe. We don’t know what we don’t know.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk about the McDavid and Bouchard contracts, the goaltending, the future. Steve Lansky and Tyler Yaremchuk are the guests, we run noon to 2 on Sports 1440.
New for The Athletic: An early look at the Edmonton Oilers’ potential 2025-26 roster
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6436540/2025/06/20/edmonton-oilers-roster-2025-26/
I like what you’re saying here. Just listened to the Bowman/Knoblauch presser. What you’re saying sounds consistent w what they offered.
Frederic seems like an odd choice for 3C. We didn’t play him at C at any point since acquiring him despite having a winger (Janmark) at C for most of that time including the entire 4 rounds of playoffs.
I can appreciate that he was hurt, but even going back to his time in Boston. Looking at his common linemates, he’s always shared the ice with another C (Coyle primarily). And in those years in Boston he was 8th/7th/7th/5th/7th in FOs taken on his team.
So my question would be what has anyone in the organization seen from him that makes them confident he is the long term solution for 3C for this team?
I’ll suggest Nuge will be the 3c. Oilers will remain strong down the middle with McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge & Philp should be more than ready. Janmark & Frederic can also play center but are better wingers. Plus, Bowman wants to change the look of the forward group, I suspect with more of a younger, gritty defensive acronym while maintaining a strong offensive punch.
My dream is this: McDavid to take Drai’s contract term and money, and to add a Lidstrom term to his contract: noone gets to sign for more than me for the next 8 years.
Pipe dream, who says no (besides Nurse lol):
Nurse for Karlsson with no salary retained
.
Speaking of forwards under 28…
Berezkin. Do we have any news there? An announcement of him signing a contract to come to Canada would certainly change the complexion of the forward prospect pool.
So the 32 Thoughts Podcast is saying that the Oilers are being investigated because Kane got a knee surgery, in the midst of recovering from his other surgeries, and that if he didn’t get the knee surgery, maybe he could have returned earlier.
But they are not investigating the team that dressed an additional 15-20 million worth of players in Game 6, who used the LTIR quirk to its maximum.
Tell me, why do we support this sham anymore? I am having an internal reckoning, because I love the Oilers so much – but watching this league turn into such an openly corrupt dog’s breakfast – I don’t know what to do anymore.
Colin Campbell. Gary Bettman. Maybe there needs to be a deep dive investigation into this by some hungry journalists.
Geesh, is there a rule that says a player on LTIR can only have one injury?
Makes me wonder if the NHL hired the whole WWF writing team from the 90s.
The beef between the NHL and the Oilers is no longer tin foil hat conspiracy.
At some point, will the team have grounds to take the NHL to court? This is getting ridiculous.
So do they think he was coerced into surgery for his knee? I mean tell me if I am wrong, but isn’t his decision to have, and when to have surgery his and his alone?
It’s just comical. Getting surgery for a knee injury, and going on LTIR was much more aggregious than using LTIR after player takes PEDs….
If we’re looking for young cost-controlled forwards, the Buffalo Sabres seem like an opportunistic organization to hopefully get a good deal out of again. Loads of young forwards on the roster and coming up. Peyton Krebs probably won’t cost that much as an example
I must admit that I forgot about Quinn Hutson for a minute. Liked what I saw in limited action. He could be a player based on track record.
Is going to have to grow. Don’t think he would have faired well at 5’11” & 170 lbs.
Are we sure that’s his current weight and not an old number? Didn’t look too slight out there. Bet he’s clocking in closer to 190.
Though notes like this make me even more thankful every day that my son is on the Bill Guerin track when it comes to size. Has the slapper too.
If McDavid is being straight-up about the whole “winning is everything” bit, then he should take a shorter, less than market deal with the demand all of that money be spent on more talent.
This is not an expectation – he can and should do as he pleases – but he’s the one who threw the words out there. The path is obvious and simple if he’s being honest.
Why the hell would McDavid sign a short deal. He is taking all the risk and no intelligent agent would suggest taking that risk. If he signs a three year deal and get a career ending injury that is a big deal to him financially.He will sign a max deal knowing oif things don’t work out he can force a trade.
Because the cap is going up and he’d be wise to bet on himself, like they do in other major leagues.
People are missing what he has said himself. He wants to win, and chasing bigger contracts is the opposite of that, and he knows that. It’ll be 8 and if wants a change he will be accommodated, as even regular players are. Not to mention the risk as you said. It didn’t work out for Klingberg when he did that
You should listen to Freidman’s 32 Thoughts. Link is in first comment of today.
I listened. Complete bunk. These guys know nothing. Like Scungilli said above, you can bet on yourself but it make cost you $100,000,000. I don’t care how much he has made already, that’s a lot of money to bet.
After what he’s making – don’t think it’s that big of “a big deal to him financially.” How much does one need!
Todd Nelson named an assistant on the Pit staff.
I’m wondering how much of the messaging “we’re signing Frederic to be a our long term 3C” is a message to Henrique “you lost your job”
That’s a tough msg but that’s how I’m reading the tea leaves.
Henrique has a no-movement clause so I think you’re right. It’s a clear message Frederic will be 3C so Henrique will have a new role or a new team. It could be 2LW/C given how this team operates though.
Henrique had a very down year. Is this a one-off or the end of the road? I suspect it’s the end of the road so trade him back to Anaheim to finish out his career.
I mean, what are McDavid’s options?
Florida is the perfect team, the rest of the final four: EDM, DAL, CAR, they all have holes or limitations, and outside of EDM can’t even prove they can make it to a final.
Everyone else is just a crapshoot.
— Leaf Nation from the day he was drafted has always smugly insisted he needs to go there
In fairness, there could be a few teams that are a McDavid away from being serious SC contenders.
Bowman doesn’t have to make a big splash, that sound came or is coming from the massive contracts hitting the deck
He needs to do what strong managers do and move out some guys that may not want to, or previous managers didn’t have the cognizance or cajones to. Build out the roster with players more suited to the way that has to be played to win deep, as it is right now
5 of the previous 6 Cup winners are built a certain way and play a similar style, the one different being Colorado, but they adopted that way of playing post trade deadline in their Cup season. They are back to looking more like the Oilers now, two high end players and finding hard nosed two way play hard to maintain, management not helping
Talent and skill are not enough if they don’t come with other traits, if you want build a group to win the Cup. There are thousands of super talented pro hockey players in the world, most of them don’t have what the NHL demands, especially when the chips are down, and that’s why they aren’t in the NHL
Tampa is arguably midway between Colorado and Florida.
Colorado is in a worse, or at least equally bad, spot than the Oilers when it comes to aging, especially after the deadline.
Nelson 33yrs old $7.5M for 3 more years
Landeskog 32yrs $7M for 4 more years
Nichushkin 30yrs old $6.125 for 5 more years
Toews 31yrs old $7.25M for 5 more years
Coyle 33yrs old $5.25M for 1 more year
Nuge.McDavid.Hyman
???. Draisatl. Savoie.
Podkolzin. Frederick. ????
Janmark. Philp. ????
Henrique, Brown, Kapanen can fill some of those spots. Kane and Arvidsson gone. Please no Perry. Father time wins all battles.
Tomasek will fight for a spot, and there has got to be another hungry young player looking for an opportunity to play on a perennial contender. Imo Bowman can look under a few more rocks to make Henrique expendable, maybe even Kapanen too, unless he’s back at just above minimum.
They desperately need #93 to not be on the first line.
With the team signing Frederic supposedly to play 3C and if they desperately need RNH to not play 1LW, then where did Nuge fit in?
Second or third line LW I suppose.
Would love to see if they could get Berezkin over from the KHL. Not remembering who it was, but someone else got a deal where if he did not make his NHL team, he could go back to the KHL and play.
Worth a shot.
I believe Brown returns at 2m at 2 or 3 years, give or take. I have no problem with Perry at his current contract levels, as is largely buryable if Father TIme takes his shot… to me, a no brainer at his current Cap.
My 2 cents
Forwards
Nuge McDavid Brown
Hyman Draisaitl Savoie
Podkolzin Frederick Kapanen
??? Janmark Perry
Hutson, Philp and Tomasek auditioning, need at least one more legit forward option preferably with speed, size, and penalty killing skills.
Defense
This should be the main focus of the off season aside from Connor and Bouchard’s contract. What do we do at 2RD, Klingberg was great but not good enough against Florida. Can we even afford him. Kulak, Nurse and Ekholm on their offside doesn’t work, does Walman? Ekholm had a down season and we can’t afford to keep carrying 4 legit LD. This needs to be reworked, not sure how.
Goal
I would be okay with an upgrade but probably better to do it at the deadline.
Frederic could score 30 every season for 8 seasons and the contract is still bad – because you’re not negotiating near tough enough.
18 goals is not worth 4 mil. Or 3 for that matter. Not with 18 goal scorers available every year for league minimum or slightly above.
Toughness? You don’t need to spend on that either. Plenty of physicality to go around at a mil or so.
Those efficiencies let you lean into the top 6, top 4 and your goalie. As you should. Though the ideal goalie approach might now be the same as RBs in the NFL.
There was one guy below 1M who wasn’t on an ELC that scored 18 or 19, Gaudette, and he’s not signing for that again. Perry is close by salary and may be signed again who knows
Take a look there are a lot of players making money that scored around 18. Lundell the bottom 6’er who kicked the Oilers butts scored 17 for 5M
18 goal career high.
If he scores 30 every year for the next 8 seasons, then he’s going to get a plaque in the Oilers hall of fame.
And still shouldn’t be paid 4mil. He doesn’t have the leverage.
He’s a UFA who the Oilers spent draft picks to acquire, in a weak UFA market, with at least one team (St. Louis) known to have extreme interest in him. He’s one of the younger forwards on the team, in an organization that desperately needs to getting younger at forward.
He has plenty of leverage … he would have gotten a higher AAV if he hit the open market.
I don’t understand what’s going on. I think McDavid is frustrated at a few of the moves they’ve made recently (especially not matching the Holloway offer sheet, maybe the Broberg one as well), and I’m betting he’s let management know his thoughts.
How does that track with this Frederic extension? McDavid says do a better job and your first move is to sign 3rd/4th line guy with major volatility in his performance to an 8 year deal…?
— LT 2 LT very measured convo…
— In years past I had done a 10 question : “What will the Oilers do”. Because you know the Oilers had a lot to do.
— This off-season if i did one would be short:
1) McD term and AAV
2) Bouch term and AAV
3) Goalie tandem game 1?
4) one player trade
5) biggest off-season net new signing
— who knows maybe there will be more action
— Anyway not sure I need to run this competition but be sure to send LT a PayPal …
Goalie a TDL move, pick someone who’s having a good season. Improve defense and PK, skins and picks numbers improve and we’ll have lower risk better options though maybe more expensive.
— McD not going “all-in” for 8 years would be a massive fail and tell for organization
— I think he goes long : lifetime Oilers, but can see why he wouldn’t …
I don’t agree at all with your statement.
— how so? Drai signed long-term.
— How would McDavid not signing for a long term be interpreted as anything other than not optimal for the Oil and him confirming doubt
— I mean I have doubt that the next 5 years will bring a Cup bit of your captain doesn’t re-up like Drai he’s making a big tell
I’ll bite. The first 2 are what I think will happen, the rest are just my educated wishes.
1) 15M x 6
2) 10.5M x 8
3) Joel Hofer (offer sheet 4M x 2 yrs) + Pickard with Stu gone for a 2nd somewhere to recoup OS compensation loss
4) Arvy to NSH 1M retained for a 3rd
5) Nik Ehlers (8M x 3 yrs)
Most hopeful for the Hofer-sheet one haha, legitimately think it could be a great outcome but don’t see it happening.
Is Lyons available? Is he an upgrade?
Re PayPal – I thought I used to see the link at the bottom of these posts. I can’t find it now. Please post if you have it. I appreciate this blog. As a writer, I know reader appreciation feels a little more real when there’s $ backing up the words.
With all due respect, a swap of Kane for Frederic (which isn’t actually the case, it’s a loss of Kane) is 6 years younger and nowhere near the skill and established production. Would argue it’s more of a swap of Henrique for Frederic, which is easier to stomach.
Duchene just signed 4 yrs 18 mil and his lowest point total in the past 4 years would be a great achievement for Frederic. It’s a bad analogy, I know, decline, but I think starting the free agency off with an overpay for a bottom 6 forward is the wrong message to send to McDavid.
The place to shop is in Podkolzin Alley, not in Frederic Lane.
They better be right on Frederic, otherwise that contract is death. (Bought HIGH).
Verhaeghe, Forsling, Mikkola, Luostarinen were found in Podkolzin Alley. Sam Bennett was found on the waste heap for pennies on the dollar. (Bought LOW).
Reinhart (Bought LOW)
Forsling and Lundell were locked up long term before they went supernova. (Contrast Nurse and Bouchard…waiting too long) (Contrast Broberg and Holloway…jackboot to their throats to sign unfair contracts).
This all day. Even a healthy Frederic wouldn’t have the speed and tenacity to break up the Panthers forecheck
They aren’t even buying high.
He just had an awful season – pre and post trade. They are buying low but seemingly paying high…..
The Oilers are buying high based on Frederic’s two good seasons. The duration offered is absurd for a bottom six player.
Is he more likely to be Tanner Jeannot or more likely to be Brandon Hagel?
Yes, this a dangerous signing by Bowman
They are paying based on those seasons but at a time when value should be low due to a terrible season and playoffs.
As I said, buying at a low time but paying high.
Bennet signed a 4 year $4.425 mill deal after coming to Florida. that year he had 10 goals and 27 pts. He did not have more then 36 pts in a season to that point (7 years prior). So they never bought low. they traded for low, he had a solid run as a panther that season, then signed him on potential.
Frederic is no different. 27, bought a ton of UFA years and could be our Sam Bennett light. i like him as a 3C (he said same in his garbage day presser). And cap % is way lower then bennett’s was at time of signing. for this team, he is a solid 3C.
I’ve seen Frederic play a few times as a Bruin, and there was one game when he was mic’d up where he absolutely crushed a guy into the boards, and then screamed at the opposition bench “who else wants some.”
He lost some of that swagger this year … I don’t know if it was the injury, but we just didn’t see that version of Frederic in an Oiler’s jersey.
If he can get back to being a huge d*ck, who pops in 15-20 goals per year, then this deal is going to be fine.
I also think you all are underestimating how much the limited pool of NHL talent is going to be overpaid on July 1. Frederic could have gotten way more on the open market as a UFA … case in point: check out what the Jets are going to be paying Jonny Toews this season … the money thrown around this off-season is going to be super silly.
Honest question, not meant to offend. Is there any professional reason for McD to sign for more than 3-4 years? He has done everything he can to bring a cup to EDM and management has not done a sufficient job in terms of roster construction to put the Oilers over the top (yet). The sins of Chia are legendary in the annals of incompetence, no need to review. Holland did enough to turn the franchise into a SC contender, but also handicapped the team with enough bad moves to make that window shorter than it had to be. The JJ moves last summer were not enough to get them past FLA and everyone of those old guys is a year older and/or going to be gone.
You look at FLA and see the astute trades they made (yes, I know Chucky had leverage to force the trade) and waiver pickups and watch those guys take their game to a much higher level once they arrive, and you wonder if Zito and his team are just that much better at identifying talent with room to improve. Maybe it’s Maurice and his system? Both?
The Oilers probably give McD the best chance at a cup over the next 2-3 years but after that, who knows. Given the track history here, why would McD have a lot of confidence that management can get the job done given the cap constraints and lack of young talent.
I’m wondering if a 3-year contract could be best for both sides if it’s team friendly. Load up and go for broke three more times. I also wonder what he is messaging to Bouchard: he said Bouch has to get signed in one breath, and that he will sign so long as the window is open here, in another breath.
I’m thinking McDavid sign for 2-3 years and I’m perfectly ok with that.
If McDavid matches Leon and they keep Bouchard to 10 per, that leaves the window well open to add. I think three years of that would be fun.
Also, knock wood, after three if they still haven’t got there, you want McDavid young enough that you can reload for the back half of Messier I mean Leon’s contract.
Any contract McDavid signs is team friendly.
It pains me to say it because McDrai are worth every penny but Drai signing at $14M and seemingly McD at $16M, whether short or long term, added to $10M+ for Bouch and $9.25M+ for Nurse makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for any GM to ice a balanced team without a steady stream of high quality ELCs. Those four will add up to $50M in 26-27.
In contrast, Florida’s top 4 (Bob, Bark, Tkac, Rein) will be $38M in 26-27. The $12M difference get you Verhaege and Forsling just to be equal.
Unfortunately, McDrai will be 33-34 years old by the time the cap catches up enough to ice a balanced roster. Until then it will remain top heavy with big sacrifices in other areas (ex. $3.6M combined for goalies, $7M third line, and/or $4M fourth line), it’s simple math.
My prediction, the Oilers finally get it done in the 2030-2031 season when the salary cap is close to $150M.
Are the Oilers really that old? Remove Henrique, Perry and Roy and is this team old?
I think it would depend who’s replacing them. Savoie working out plus two more Podkolzin type adds would re-balance the spread nicely.
I was planning on sharing this while waiting for today’s post. It seems to go hand in hand…
https://www.sportsnet.ca/podcasts/32-thoughts/mcdavid-wants-a-winner/
You think Henrique is done here LT? Again bias, just wonder if there’s not another role for him, like a 3rd line winger that can take draws and PK. I do realize that’s too much money for a 4C.