Why are Oilers fans so disappointed? Two SCF’s lost in a row is a lot of pain. I think the sense of loss is tremendous, and it will take some time. Completely rational and appropriate reaction to losing the final.
What did you make of Connor McDavid’s comments? They were measured, as one would expect. There was a message in there, this Oilers team is going to have a tough time staying competitive because they’re aging out and any observer can see it.
What does it mean? Probably a shorter term contract. Maybe three years, maybe five. McDavid may not want to commit long term.
Oh, that’s bad. Not necessarily. It keeps management’s feet to the fire, and makes contending for a Stanley Cup a priority. The Oilers run profits no matter, and owner Daryl Katz wants to win as badly as you do, but this version of the Oilers has no real assets to trade, and has no cap room to make deals like the one we saw yesterday (Seattle Kraken). There’s not much room to wheel.
What will Stan Bowman’s summer look like? I think fans will be largely disappointed, unless they are Evan Bouchard boosters. Signing the defenseman will be the big play of the summer, and Bowman will need to trade Evander Kane, Viktor Arvidsson and Adam Henrique in order to reset the roster under the salary cap.
Who will replace those veterans? Money is too tight to mention. I wrote about it here. The Oilers need three of Matt Savoie and they have just one Matt Savoie. Signing Trent Frederic means the club would have exactly six forwards under 28 (Frederic, Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin, Max Jones, Noah Philp and Quinn Hutson), and some of those men won’t make the team.
Edmonton isn’t that old. Yeah they are. Old and second to the puck in the final. That’s death. Bowman is going to sign Frederic and trade Kane, that gets you six years younger at one position. Moving Matt Savoie in over Viktor Arvidsson saves the team a decade. The team needs to do more, maybe Noah Philp passes Mattias Janmark this coming season.
Why are you so upset about the age? Because there’s not a lot of upside. Corey Perry had a grand season at age 40, he really did. However, the cliff is out there, and it’s coming like a thief in the night. The Oilers have Savoie, but need more. They don’t have more, because it was all traded away or lost in the St. Louis offer sheet.
What do Oilers fans have to look forward to this summer? McDavid contract, Bouchard contract, one or two acquisitions who can play and are in their 20’s, and then that large group of Bowman finds from Sweden, Finland, NCAA and other hockey hot spots will get a chance to show what they can do. Make your deals at the deadline, and make the playoffs from October to February.
What about this investigation? It’s the NHL. They might pull back a draft pick, making Bowman’s job more difficult. It won’t change much, I think it’s Bettman showing he’s working on a problem that managers have been complaining about recently.
Can Bowman make a big splash? Bowman has a track record of making astute trades for players who emerge as more than they appear to be, and he’s signed some dandy players from Europe. We don’t know what we don’t know.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk about the McDavid and Bouchard contracts, the goaltending, the future. Steve Lansky and Tyler Yaremchuk are the guests, we run noon to 2 on Sports 1440.
New for The Athletic: An early look at the Edmonton Oilers’ potential 2025-26 roster
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6436540/2025/06/20/edmonton-oilers-roster-2025-26/
I like what you’re saying here. Just listened to the Bowman/Knoblauch presser. What you’re saying sounds consistent w what they offered.
can we sign Jake Allen hes a UFA and career .908 sv % and some intersting playoff numbers
I would like to say that I agree with Allan on almost all his points, he’s not wrong about getting younger & staying competitive.
I cannot see the Oilers going into next season with 26-28 million tied up in 3 defencman, that dam is going to break especially with a team SV% of 894.
That has to get significantly better while getting younger and fixing gaps/holes on the team.
So how?
The only trading chip that’s going to fill holes while improving the team is Bouchard & Nurse (Yes, I know about the NMC)
The other is shedding salary & taking a run at a few UFA’s
Before people outright reject the idea of trading Bouchard think about what he might be able to bring in….
(Hypothetically)
Would Bouchard for Parayko & Holloway or another combination like that be significant enough to satisfy the masses while keeping the Oilers competitive? (Serious question)
The Oilers need to walk Janmark – Kane – Henrique and Arvidsson, I believe they will all fetch a few late round draft picks.
The Oilers need to fix team SV% – goaltending – PK – PP – top 6 holes, bottom 6 holes and age.
Oilers need to shed salary not give it to one player.
Outside prediction, the Oilers sign Carter Hart…
I think losing Holloway to an offer sheet last season and then trading Bouchard for him (and Parayko) would be a fireable offence for the entire management group.
This is way too drastic, we were 1 and 2 games from Stanley. We miss McLeod as a reliable, fast, defensive center who can PK. A good RD would also help a lot and of course the situation in net could be improved.
I think we can offload Arvi pretty easily and replace with Savoie. Evander Kane and Adam Henrique can potentially be moved but like in goal, we need a suitable upgrade. I wish we could do something about RD but I don’t think it’s affordable.
Who are the options at forward and goal that are upgrades? I know everyone is talking getting younger but how would Patrick Kane look on Leon’s wing. Who is a defensive forward who can PK and saw off 5-5 is there someone like Teddy Blueger we can get?
Bowman said he thought the D group was good. In his 3 Cup wins he had in place great D which is some different than the Oilers and how their drafts panned out pre Connor. I think they still need to still balance it better
He said there will be changes at forward, I didn’t catch him talking about goal
I found it different that he was so open about what he thought, that players would not be back, compared to GM’s before. Even though I think that is the right approach given it’s the best pro hockey league in the world, I’m people person and it still takes getting used to. Normal pro sport discourse that is about winning first
You know the Oilers in the 80’s played like the Panthers do now. It works, and always has. So because we have no idea what is available by trade, signing or in house this is my skater group to keep
X CMD Hyman
X Drai X
Podkolzin Frederic X
Janmark X
Ekholm Bouch
Walman
Kulak
I’m not talking goalies so 10 out of 21. On D Ekholm depending on what they know about his health. It seems to me he’s on the down side of the slope, and that’s with thinking he as their best D when healthy
Bouch – you can’t teach what he does, but you can coach what he doesn’t. He hasn’t peaked yet and it’s far different than when Nurse signed his big one
Walman is quality and how many guys built like him (220lb) can skate and move the puck like him? Not many. He’s also an in your face player
Kulak – he’s a good player, but expensive at 3 LD and none of the LD playing right did well against a tough team. Don’t do again it if Nurse stays which is likely. Trade him or Ek, if health is an issue, for a RD. Three top 4 LD doesn’t work
Stecher as a 7/8 is fine, but the coaches won’t use him if the coaches stay when it counts otherwise. I thought Emberson was a good pick up, but at 194lbs he’s light for a D and gets lit up big time, Yamamoto vibes. He needs to play like Forsling – skating and stick – or not a fit for me. He’ll be 26 next season, so it’s sink or swim to me with him staying. No worries with getting him because it made sense, just cut your losses if it doesn’t work
Connor – you keeding me?
Hyman – I’m not as high on him as most are, but he is a good player and has speed and size and a motor. That he became a hitting machine surprised and impressed me these playoffs. Taking an open ice hit and getting the wrist thing that bad did not impress me, I have never seen that before – be more aware. He needs to be more consistent 200 ft. He needs to shoot more and finish – I don’t care if he once got 54, his best trait is getting enough and being able to play with Connor, but he needs to help more by shooting when not right at the goalies pads. The deal is to find the right LW to complete that line. Nuge can keep up but they need a guy that adds to them and he doesn’t contribute enough for me
Drai – needs the wingers to keep him 2C
Frederic – wants to play C, and if they can build a line around him I like that idea. I like Nuge the guy and can see the skill, but he hasn’t stuck at C in years, and Lundell and his type would own him I think. Frederic with Pod and another winger that plays like they do, I see a line like the third Florida had this go round
Janmark – it’s said he had a couple of rough games in 5/6 and he wasn’t alone, but that guy elevates and is defensively reliable, and can play at C. Not ideal but. Speed and enough size and a game rooster
I hope Tomasek and Philp show up for camp and have the mindset to stay. A couple of RS C would be muy bueno. I have my doubts that Savoie turns out, but if he has it at camp let’s go and I hope he’s the next Marchessault
I loved that Bowman spoke about young players and where the team is at, essentially not wanting too many rookies learning on the job but specifically mentioning letting a younger player have the season to learn and grow and be ready to do it in playoffs. Panther’s Lundell was 22 last SCF
While I get as disappointed as anyone when they lose, I rebound pretty quickly to hopeful thinking about the future, especially when a competent seeming GM says things I and many others think also need to happen
If Connor is winding up, with us still, that will be a different scenario, hopefully years away. That makes me think with the talk of a not 8 year deal, is Connor wanting to avoid the discomfort of hitting his late 30’s and at the true end, and not wanting an uncomfortable situation like Marchand had to do with the Bruins? Where they trade him out ending the retiring as a Bruin, like Sid wanted to with the Pens and had to deal with trade rumours?
It also could mean that if he is staying and wants to keep playing he could start taking lower deals. What a finger up to the league and PA that have been giving it to him in letting him get gooned 24/7 without a peep
Marchand wearing an oilers logo with a hr word losers on it on social media.
Serious prick. If I was McDavid I’d tell team Canada that we’ve got lots of amazing forwards that aren’t 37 and asshats that they can choose. Like Zach Hyman
we lost to a social movement
Maybe they can rebrand as the SOuth FLorida Trolls.. Marchand has always been a bit of an idiot. Remember when he licked another player during a game? Not an emotionally mature aware human being by any stretch. Toxic buffoonery at its worst, never progressed beyond a overentitled 14 year old’s mindset.
That’s why he is so effective at getting under player’s skin so much and punking the refs.
What are the current thoughts about John Gibson? Solid year after several poor but apparently didn’t want to share a crease with Skinner. Anaheim supposedly willing to retain.
Skinner is 5 years younger, and would have some value given the goalie market. Gibson-Pickard too risky given Gibson’s injury history. So would require another backup. Lots of moves but somehow wouldn’t surprise me. Bowman did show a level of creativity we haven’t seen for a while.
IMO, McDavid will be considering something he hasn’t had to before. The possibility of raising a family – somewhere. I knew Ryan Smyth and near the end of his 1st tenure in Edm he couldn’t go anywhere with his family, without signing autographs and taking pictures. Edmonton is small. So if Connor can’t go to the park, or soccer games or McDonald’s like a half normal person – that may weigh on his decision. He can do that stuff in Anaheim or somewhere that hockey is not fandom #1.
I know winning matters to him, but I bet him and his wife will think long and hard about what their family future will look like – and where they will have the best life to raise a family. And they could decide Edmonton, but they also may not.
That consideration is for every major athlete in any major sport. Maybe the diff is the US has more options for everything. It’s not like Steph Curry is left alone in a far bigger league, or Pat Mahomes
I’ve run by his neighborhood before- it’s not hounded by paparazzi
Nuge-McDavid-Savoie
Kane-Driasaitl-Hyman
Podkolzin-Fredrick-Berezkin
Janmark-Philip-Tomasek
Perry
Elkholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Emberson
Stetcher
Skinner
Hart
Fixes PK
PK1 Nuge-Philip-Dr.-Wallman
PK2 Janmark-Podkolzin-Kulak-Emb
PK3 Fredrick-Savoie -Elkholm-Bouch
Modern NHL – third line with a role
Better Goaltending
internal growth through the season
If only Berezkin would sign – doesn’t look like it.
The UFA list is rough and in my opinion, few names should be of interest for the Oilers.
Maybe Ehlers signs a cheap one year deal for a chance to win, ala JSkinner. Doubt it.
Oilers have little to offer in trades and Arvy, Kane or Henrique won’t fetch much, if anything.
I would love if they could find another Podz, as in a younger forward with potential, in need of a fresh start. Peterka would be interesting? Doubt it happens.
I’m hoping Bowman can make some moves happen this summer. So far he’s done well bringing in some youth/prospects and Walman with his cheap second year.
Peterka isn’t in need of a fresh start so much as he’s in need of a team that isn’t a complete tire fire that makes the Decade of Darkness Oilers look somewhat competent.
Peterka would be nice for sure. Buffalo is a weird franchise.
A few ufa’s Id look at
P. Suter
Appleton
Perbix
Fabbro
Boeser
JJ screwed the pooch when he included the NMCs in both the Arvy and Henrique contracts – both these guys need to be gone.
If Stan wants to double-down and sign Frederic. he needs to get rid of Henrique first.
For RW, I would sign Brown and Perry and elevate the best of the RW younguns (Savoie?) to the roster. To do this Arvy also needs to be gone.
Can Stan do it? Don’t know but Holland made the Lucic trade, so anything is possible.
Hard to see Brown taking a discount like last year considering Frederic’s contract.
Is Brown better than Arvi? More popular with the team I imagine but our PK was terrible.
I would try to move on from all of Jeff Skinner, Connor Brown, Evander Kane, Adam Henrique, and Victor Arvidsson. The first two are easy. Getting rid of the last three is going to be challenging.
I more or less agree. Who do you replace them with?
Of those, Skinner is the one I’d most likely retain. Kane is fun sometimes but I’d probably take Arvi over him. But at least 3 should be moved IMO. I think Henrique is the hardest unless he wants to go to Anaheim and they want him.
IMO, Brown is not better than Arvi. Arvi unfortunately can’t stay healthy.
True, but signing Brown and then having both again isn’t ideal. Teach Arvi to PK and if he’s hurt he’s replaceable.
Both are 180 pounds and old and not performing or injury prone. Give 180 lb Savoie a go and see if he has the jam and smarts for the rough stuff
For years and years, the Oilers and Jets were on just about every player’s No Trade List and it was very hard (read overpay) to get free agents to sign.
I have read some discussion on trading S.Skinner, Kulak and even Ekholm. Now, two of the guys are from Edmonton and Ekholm (and wife) have said that they love it here! I would run it back with all three if they want to stay.
I haven’t posted much in regards to management decisions lately because obviously invested in watching the deep playoff run and well, there hasn’t been any management moves to speak of. This rumoured Frederic contract has me concerned. Like many others I feel like the salary and especially the term is way too high. Are we really worried that another team is going to outbid us on this guy? And even if they do, are we unable to find a comparable player for less? I like Frederic’s player type, but I don’t think he is irreplaceable. I didn’t like the trade to begin with for similar reasons. Why trade for an injured player that does not have a unique skill set. We wasted the precious little trade capital we had on a player that did not help in the regular season and had very little impact in the playoffs. Now we are going to double down by giving the player a contract that is not value for the team? This is not the decade of darkness, the Oilers shouldn’t need to overpay to bring talent in anymore.
In my opinion, if the rumoured contract comes to fruition, it is just another in a long list of poor asset management decisions that eat into the contending window for the club. I wish management would show a commitment to excellence by making decisions based on winning always. Even the small decisions matter. The standard should be excellence all the time.
Trading for him was a risk because he was hurt. Marchand was injured when the Panthers traded for him as well. Frederic’s acquired cap hit was only 575K though
So risk ok for this run. Results still disappointing.
But I still don’t see the need or upside of locking a 3rd liner who we haven’t even seen play well for 8 years – and at $4M per ?! Seems ludicrous.
Marchand is in a different tier than Frederic though. There are plenty of healthy players available that are as good as Frederic
He is production wise, but they are both agitators in a ‘Twins’ sense
Along with the risk in that Frederic was injured, is that his cap hit was 575K. I’m not sure how easy it would have been to get a better player at that
You have a point there. We’ll never know what else was out there for sure. I hope they explored all options before settling on Frederic as the target. It’s hard to trust that they did based on the track record of these guys. And if they do sign him to the 4×8 deal, I will still cheer for the player and hope it works out.
The track record is set back to zero. Bowman has already shown he’s a far better trader (Walman who was not on the market) and far more active than Holland
The term for Fred if it happens is a lot, but anything 4M or less for a player with his skill set won’t be a problem to move if needed with the cap jumping 12 M in two years. NMCs are not a problem anymore per Bowman and reports Arvi already waived
We have a normal competent GM for the first time in a long time, that isn’t resting on laurels, and is as desirous as his team to win tomorrow, not next year or in a five year plan. This isn’t a rebuild and wasn’t when Holland came. The players for themselves, the GM for redemption
The only thing that matters this summer is a McDavid signing. Bouchard too but it’s not as critical as McDavid. Try to shed some cap too and find a goalie. I do think that Skinner will be traded as they can’t run him back again. He’d be good in a 1A/1B scenario but not sure the Oil can afford it. I still think Gibson is a decent choice – he’s played for a bad team but had decent numbers. He would be motivated to play well in the last two years of his contract. Lots of goalies play well into their 30s and Gibson hasn’t played a lot over the last 4 years.
My darkhorse goalie signing is Carter Hart. Then just run the same goalies plus Hart and let the best two win. The Oilers have been a refuge for players needing second chances, Hart has high end potential and is a local. It wouldn’t be popular but neither were the Kane/Perry/Bowman moves and honestly they all worked out to varying degrees. Depends on the forthcoming verdict but I’m sure Hart is training as it looks like they will be aquitted.
Hate the idea of Carter Hart. But seems a very Edmonton and Bowman-type move.
and would generate lots of distraction for the team.
Of any position goalie needs his head together. I don’t see how that happens short term for him, he was struggling long before the trial as the others were because common sense says they knew things were coming possibly. But who knows?
I don’ think i can think of anything as unrealistic as Stan Bowman signing Carter Hart at this point in time.
I have no problem with signing Hart. Michael McLeod too. I played minor hockey – the things that they are accused of happened consensually with lots of teams; not at all shocked by it, aside from the fact that it actually went to trial.
That said, my number 1 target is Demko … he’s in a contract year and I think he’ll be super motivated. When Boeser signs elsewhere for stupid money, Kane for Demko makes sense for both teams and players.
Demko’s knee is done and not fixable from what I’ve read
I think we can all agree that the Oilers owner and management have made some terrible decisions since drafting McDavid. And now the pundits are saying that McDavid may want to leave if he doesn’t think the Oilers can contend. They are saying the Oilers haven’t done enough to build a team around McDavid.
This may all be true, but how much has McDavid, or maybe his management team, factored into these bad decisions.
There were reports Mcdavids camp demanded the Oilers hire a proven GM and coach before he would sign an ELC with the Oilers. If that’s what led to the Chiarelli hiring, doesn’t he share some of the blame for the hot mess that followed.
When the Oilers hire Mcdavids former agent as President of Hockey Ops, and then Jeff Jackson proceeds to gut the club of young, fast talent, doesn’t the McDavid camp get to share some of that blame as well.
I don’t know how much influence McDavid has in management decisions, but I think it would be naive to think he has none.
Same with coaching decisions and tactics/structure.
In any sport most teams that have players like Connor are going to get their take on things if they want to keep them around
So the team that’s lost to the cup winner 4 years in a row isn’t a contender?
Pretty sure that’s a contender.
I must be the only one that’s bothered by McDavids comments.
No “I want to be an Oiler for life” ala Sid with the Penguins.
This team has bent over backwards, shed assets and just went to two finals in a row. In which he reverted to trying to go 1 on 4 and got nowhere.
Last week I would have argued that he should take 8/15 because the gap between he and Leon had closed a bit.
He sounded like a mercenary.
I’d try to trade him now to Anaheim or San Jose for a haul. Never thought I’d say that.
Hand the team to Leon.
Fans of the Orlando Magic had the same opinion you did when it came getting Shaq O’Neal signed coming our of his first contract. Many weren’t all that upset when he left.
Team has been wandering in the wilderness now for almost 30 years. Be very careful what you ask for.
I had a comment from a guy that they traded Gretzky and still won a Cup. And I reminded him that after that Cup came a couple of decades of struggle
How often does a team win a trade when they’re sending out the best player?
Yes, the Oilers still won a cup after trading Gretzky. Haven’t forgotten that. But it’s a very different league now.
In a capped league I don’t think you can trade elite players and win, can’t get enough return
Generally but San Jose has cap space, tones of young cheap stars and premium picks.
If you’re going to have to trade him I’d rather be proactive and avoid a forced sale.
Connor has an NMC I can’t see why he’d waive to a bottom feeder
I was agreeing with your point about the Magic
That’s okay.
Theres a good chance they have a stumble or take a step back before going forward. They have gone all in and are thin for depth.
If getting upset in the first round means McDavid is going to want out then I’d rather trade him at a position of strength.
There’s a chance they don’t get back to the cup. Their best opportunities are passed. It will be very impressive to me if they do make it back in the next five years.
I don’t think they’ll be back in the finals. During their best two chances they let Jonathan Marchessault (!!!) beat them in 2023 and Bobrovsky beat them in 2024. I feel sick.
It would have been refreshing to hear him say that yes, he is planning on signing with the Oilers for max term because he has already seen that they have a commitment to winning and can provide him with the best chance at a championship. Not to mention playing in the best building in the NHL in front of the best fans.
Yeah, team first used to be a given. I can’t imagine Wayne or Mark saying that. Right until the end they were bleeding blue.
You definitely do not trade him!!
But I don’t like his comments. Would have liked to hear I’m dedicated to winning a cup in Edmonton and play out my career with my best friends.
Ideally but if he’s not all in I’d get ahead of it.
The press conference could always be more positive, but the statements seemed like good news to me. My big takeaways were that McDavid wants to win, and he wants to sign here if he can win here, and he seems to (as well as the whole group) believe he can win here.
The press conference to me came across as I want to be here but I don’t want to be taken for granted.
Next year is a bit of a financial mess. 2 years from now? We have only 6 contracts. Only one that doesn’t look so good (Nurse). Like 60M in projected available cap space.
My advice to Bowman is to not throw that year away while working on this next year. This team can be exactly what he wants it to be in 2 years.
Playing around on PuckPedia, thinking what a realistic offseason could look like and came up with:
Trade:
Kane -> NJ for a 3rd+4th (same as marchment trade)
Kulak -> Carolina for Ty Smith + 6th
Sign:
Bouch $10.25M for 8yrs
Fabbro $4.5M for 5yrs
Frederic $3.75M for 8yrs
Nuge McD Hyman
Fred Drai Savoie
Podz Hen Arvid
Jan Tomasek Hutson
Ek Bouch
Nurse Fabbro
Walman Emb
$575k cap remaining
I like balanced L/R and Fabbro would be a decent hedge for 26-27 and beyond with a all the FA D. That said, could keep Kulak instead, saving $1.75M to upgrade 2LW and push Podz down/Hutson out.
Other than that, not much else can be done unless Hen and/or Avr waive. If Arv does, would say a Donato be an upgrade?
Kulak is a cap dump?? Why
Frederic seems like an odd choice for 3C. We didn’t play him at C at any point since acquiring him despite having a winger (Janmark) at C for most of that time including the entire 4 rounds of playoffs.
I can appreciate that he was hurt, but even going back to his time in Boston. Looking at his common linemates, he’s always shared the ice with another C (Coyle primarily). And in those years in Boston he was 8th/7th/7th/5th/7th in FOs taken on his team.
So my question would be what has anyone in the organization seen from him that makes them confident he is the long term solution for 3C for this team?
I’ll suggest Nuge will be the 3c. Oilers will remain strong down the middle with McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge & Philp should be more than ready. Janmark & Frederic can also play center but are better wingers. Plus, Bowman wants to change the look of the forward group, I suspect with more of a younger, gritty defensive acronym while maintaining a strong offensive punch.
I don’t see Nuge playing C except for when they load up 97 and 29, but I agree with you here. Just seems odd that a lot of what I’d heard/read (which could all be from the same one source, I admit) framed it as him being the 3C and I don’t understand what leads anyone to believe he can be a center in this league.
When we acquired him, I kinda figured he’d be given a shot as Draisaitl’s LW. Too bad he didn’t get much of a test drive at either position since coming over. We gave up assets and played him in 23 games, yet are no better informed on whether he can fill either role on this team.
My dream is this: McDavid to take Drai’s contract term and money, and to add a Lidstrom term to his contract: noone gets to sign for more than me for the next 8 years.
Pipe dream, who says no (besides Nurse lol):
Nurse for Karlsson with no salary retained
.
Speaking of forwards under 28…
Berezkin. Do we have any news there? An announcement of him signing a contract to come to Canada would certainly change the complexion of the forward prospect pool.
Only an unofficial media piece out of Russia that he was re-signing with Loco – it was highly disappointing – that guy would be a lock for the middle six on this roster next season.
Thanks OP. Ugh. He’d be found money at this point, hopefully Pod or someone can reach out and talk him round.
So the 32 Thoughts Podcast is saying that the Oilers are being investigated because Kane got a knee surgery, in the midst of recovering from his other surgeries, and that if he didn’t get the knee surgery, maybe he could have returned earlier.
But they are not investigating the team that dressed an additional 15-20 million worth of players in Game 6, who used the LTIR quirk to its maximum.
Tell me, why do we support this sham anymore? I am having an internal reckoning, because I love the Oilers so much – but watching this league turn into such an openly corrupt dog’s breakfast – I don’t know what to do anymore.
Colin Campbell. Gary Bettman. Maybe there needs to be a deep dive investigation into this by some hungry journalists.
Geesh, is there a rule that says a player on LTIR can only have one injury?
Makes me wonder if the NHL hired the whole WWF writing team from the 90s.
The beef between the NHL and the Oilers is no longer tin foil hat conspiracy.
At some point, will the team have grounds to take the NHL to court? This is getting ridiculous.
So do they think he was coerced into surgery for his knee? I mean tell me if I am wrong, but isn’t his decision to have, and when to have surgery his and his alone?
It’s just comical. Getting surgery for a knee injury, and going on LTIR was much more aggregious than using LTIR after player takes PEDs….
If we’re looking for young cost-controlled forwards, the Buffalo Sabres seem like an opportunistic organization to hopefully get a good deal out of again. Loads of young forwards on the roster and coming up. Peyton Krebs probably won’t cost that much as an example
I must admit that I forgot about Quinn Hutson for a minute. Liked what I saw in limited action. He could be a player based on track record.
Is going to have to grow. Don’t think he would have faired well at 5’11” & 170 lbs.
Are we sure that’s his current weight and not an old number? Didn’t look too slight out there. Bet he’s clocking in closer to 190.
Though notes like this make me even more thankful every day that my son is on the Bill Guerin track when it comes to size. Has the slapper too.
After years and years of smaller Oiler forward prospects and other team’s not making it, and watching the last two SCF, I will be shocked if any shorter lighter forward that isn’t Kucherov like amounts to much help where it’s needed
I hope they do, it just doesn’t happen often. Hutson is listed 5’11 170 on the Oilers site. If Connor can’t dangle into the Panther’s clogged D zone how’s he going to do that? Forecheck hard, soften up the D and win board battles? I just can’t see it
It’s great that your son has size if he’s into hockey, makes it so much easier the further you go. My nephew was an up and coming D playing in elite programs, was tough, had enough size and stopped growing in his mid teens. And that was it as he wasn’t a top skill player, lost interest as any hope of pro got less realistic
Tough for me to see him not spending at least half of the season in the AHL – if not more….
If McDavid is being straight-up about the whole “winning is everything” bit, then he should take a shorter, less than market deal with the demand all of that money be spent on more talent.
This is not an expectation – he can and should do as he pleases – but he’s the one who threw the words out there. The path is obvious and simple if he’s being honest.
McDavid has aoready backed his words last conttract. He took about 15.1% of the Cap on a longterm deal, rather then the 20% max he easily could have demanded and got- and made a point in the presser afterwards that he was leaving some on the table to allow for a better team around him. I expect similar sentiments and cap % this time as well.
Why the hell would McDavid sign a short deal. He is taking all the risk and no intelligent agent would suggest taking that risk. If he signs a three year deal and get a career ending injury that is a big deal to him financially.He will sign a max deal knowing oif things don’t work out he can force a trade.
Because the cap is going up and he’d be wise to bet on himself, like they do in other major leagues.
People are missing what he has said himself. He wants to win, and chasing bigger contracts is the opposite of that, and he knows that. It’ll be 8 and if wants a change he will be accommodated, as even regular players are. Not to mention the risk as you said. It didn’t work out for Klingberg when he did that
You should listen to Freidman’s 32 Thoughts. Link is in first comment of today.
I listened. Complete bunk. These guys know nothing. Like Scungilli said above, you can bet on yourself but it make cost you $100,000,000. I don’t care how much he has made already, that’s a lot of money to bet.
After what he’s making – don’t think it’s that big of “a big deal to him financially.” How much does one need!
Funny thing that big money doesn’t become as big an issue when one is debating about someone else’s money rather than their own…
Max term or max AAV?
If its the latter, I wouldn’t sign him to that – I don’t imagine it comes in anywhere near the max.
As an aside, superstar players choose a less than max term all the time.
The concept is far from abnormal.
Todd Nelson named an assistant on the Pit staff.
I’m wondering how much of the messaging “we’re signing Frederic to be a our long term 3C” is a message to Henrique “you lost your job”
That’s a tough msg but that’s how I’m reading the tea leaves.
Henrique has a no-movement clause so I think you’re right. It’s a clear message Frederic will be 3C so Henrique will have a new role or a new team. It could be 2LW/C given how this team operates though.
Henrique had a very down year. Is this a one-off or the end of the road? I suspect it’s the end of the road so trade him back to Anaheim to finish out his career.
I mean, what are McDavid’s options?
Florida is the perfect team, the rest of the final four: EDM, DAL, CAR, they all have holes or limitations, and outside of EDM can’t even prove they can make it to a final.
Everyone else is just a crapshoot.
— Leaf Nation from the day he was drafted has always smugly insisted he needs to go there
In fairness, there could be a few teams that are a McDavid away from being serious SC contenders.
But what about everything they would need to give up in order to win the McDavid arms race? Oilers won’t let McDavid walk, if he won’t sign they’ll trade him. And what does he return? Enough to clean the cupboard of that team. So then what?
Fair points, but we need to remember that in such a scenario the Oilers won’t have much leverage. There is strong chance that the Oilers receive picks and prospects, thus not depleting the acquiring team’s cupboards.
Connor’s best chance at winning is where he is. The main reason is that any team trading for him would have to gut themselves. The Oilers aren’t looking for a rebuild, so a bunch of young guys and picks doesn’t make sense, they would need in prime players to support Leon. Connor doesn’t have 5 years to wait for a young team to develop, he wants to win now. I can’t think of a trade scenario that would make sense for him
Bowman doesn’t have to make a big splash, that sound came or is coming from the massive contracts hitting the deck
He needs to do what strong managers do and move out some guys that may not want to, or previous managers didn’t have the cognizance or cajones to. Build out the roster with players more suited to the way that has to be played to win deep, as it is right now
5 of the previous 6 Cup winners are built a certain way and play a similar style, the one different being Colorado, but they adopted that way of playing post trade deadline in their Cup season. They are back to looking more like the Oilers now, two high end players and finding hard nosed two way play hard to maintain, management not helping
Talent and skill are not enough if they don’t come with other traits, if you want build a group to win the Cup. There are thousands of super talented pro hockey players in the world, most of them don’t have what the NHL demands, especially when the chips are down, and that’s why they aren’t in the NHL
Tampa is arguably midway between Colorado and Florida.
Yes I suppose. I’m not sure they’ll get back to where they were, but to me they also have that high pressure high pace relentless style that’s hard to play against
Colorado is in a worse, or at least equally bad, spot than the Oilers when it comes to aging, especially after the deadline.
Nelson 33yrs old $7.5M for 3 more years
Landeskog 32yrs $7M for 4 more years
Nichushkin 30yrs old $6.125 for 5 more years
Toews 31yrs old $7.25M for 5 more years
Coyle 33yrs old $5.25M for 1 more year
MacKinnon said ‘you can’t win with young players’. I guess they’ll see the other side
Nuge.McDavid.Hyman
???. Draisatl. Savoie.
Podkolzin. Frederick. ????
Janmark. Philp. ????
Henrique, Brown, Kapanen can fill some of those spots. Kane and Arvidsson gone. Please no Perry. Father time wins all battles.
Tomasek will fight for a spot, and there has got to be another hungry young player looking for an opportunity to play on a perennial contender. Imo Bowman can look under a few more rocks to make Henrique expendable, maybe even Kapanen too, unless he’s back at just above minimum.
They desperately need #93 to not be on the first line.
With the team signing Frederic supposedly to play 3C and if they desperately need RNH to not play 1LW, then where did Nuge fit in?
Second or third line LW I suppose.
Would love to see if they could get Berezkin over from the KHL. Not remembering who it was, but someone else got a deal where if he did not make his NHL team, he could go back to the KHL and play.
Worth a shot.
I believe Brown returns at 2m at 2 or 3 years, give or take. I have no problem with Perry at his current contract levels, as is largely buryable if Father TIme takes his shot… to me, a no brainer at his current Cap.
My 2 cents
Forwards
Nuge McDavid Brown
Hyman Draisaitl Savoie
Podkolzin Frederick Kapanen
??? Janmark Perry
Hutson, Philp and Tomasek auditioning, need at least one more legit forward option preferably with speed, size, and penalty killing skills.
Defense
This should be the main focus of the off season aside from Connor and Bouchard’s contract. What do we do at 2RD, Klingberg was great but not good enough against Florida. Can we even afford him. Kulak, Nurse and Ekholm on their offside doesn’t work, does Walman? Ekholm had a down season and we can’t afford to keep carrying 4 legit LD. This needs to be reworked, not sure how.
Goal
I would be okay with an upgrade but probably better to do it at the deadline.
Frederic could score 30 every season for 8 seasons and the contract is still bad – because you’re not negotiating near tough enough.
18 goals is not worth 4 mil. Or 3 for that matter. Not with 18 goal scorers available every year for league minimum or slightly above.
Toughness? You don’t need to spend on that either. Plenty of physicality to go around at a mil or so.
Those efficiencies let you lean into the top 6, top 4 and your goalie. As you should. Though the ideal goalie approach might now be the same as RBs in the NFL.
There was one guy below 1M who wasn’t on an ELC that scored 18 or 19, Gaudette, and he’s not signing for that again. Perry is close by salary and may be signed again who knows
Take a look there are a lot of players making money that scored around 18. Lundell the bottom 6’er who kicked the Oilers butts scored 17 for 5M
18 goal career high.
If he scores 30 every year for the next 8 seasons, then he’s going to get a plaque in the Oilers hall of fame.
And still shouldn’t be paid 4mil. He doesn’t have the leverage.
He’s a UFA who the Oilers spent draft picks to acquire, in a weak UFA market, with at least one team (St. Louis) known to have extreme interest in him. He’s one of the younger forwards on the team, in an organization that desperately needs to getting younger at forward.
He has plenty of leverage … he would have gotten a higher AAV if he hit the open market.
I don’t understand what’s going on. I think McDavid is frustrated at a few of the moves they’ve made recently (especially not matching the Holloway offer sheet, maybe the Broberg one as well), and I’m betting he’s let management know his thoughts.
How does that track with this Frederic extension? McDavid says do a better job and your first move is to sign 3rd/4th line guy with major volatility in his performance to an 8 year deal…?
— LT 2 LT very measured convo…
— In years past I had done a 10 question : “What will the Oilers do”. Because you know the Oilers had a lot to do.
— This off-season if i did one would be short:
1) McD term and AAV
2) Bouch term and AAV
3) Goalie tandem game 1?
4) one player trade
5) biggest off-season net new signing
— who knows maybe there will be more action
— Anyway not sure I need to run this competition but be sure to send LT a PayPal …
Goalie a TDL move, pick someone who’s having a good season. Improve defense and PK, skins and picks numbers improve and we’ll have lower risk better options though maybe more expensive.
— McD not going “all-in” for 8 years would be a massive fail and tell for organization
— I think he goes long : lifetime Oilers, but can see why he wouldn’t …
I don’t agree at all with your statement.
— how so? Drai signed long-term.
— How would McDavid not signing for a long term be interpreted as anything other than not optimal for the Oil and him confirming doubt
— I mean I have doubt that the next 5 years will bring a Cup bit of your captain doesn’t re-up like Drai he’s making a big tell
I’ll bite. The first 2 are what I think will happen, the rest are just my educated wishes.
1) 15M x 6
2) 10.5M x 8
3) Joel Hofer (offer sheet 4M x 2 yrs) + Pickard with Stu gone for a 2nd somewhere to recoup OS compensation loss
4) Arvy to NSH 1M retained for a 3rd
5) Nik Ehlers (8M x 3 yrs)
Most hopeful for the Hofer-sheet one haha, legitimately think it could be a great outcome but don’t see it happening.
Is Lyons available? Is he an upgrade?
Re PayPal – I thought I used to see the link at the bottom of these posts. I can’t find it now. Please post if you have it. I appreciate this blog. As a writer, I know reader appreciation feels a little more real when there’s $ backing up the words.
— yeah I do t see it either.
With all due respect, a swap of Kane for Frederic (which isn’t actually the case, it’s a loss of Kane) is 6 years younger and nowhere near the skill and established production. Would argue it’s more of a swap of Henrique for Frederic, which is easier to stomach.
Duchene just signed 4 yrs 18 mil and his lowest point total in the past 4 years would be a great achievement for Frederic. It’s a bad analogy, I know, decline, but I think starting the free agency off with an overpay for a bottom 6 forward is the wrong message to send to McDavid.
The place to shop is in Podkolzin Alley, not in Frederic Lane.
They better be right on Frederic, otherwise that contract is death. (Bought HIGH).
Verhaeghe, Forsling, Mikkola, Luostarinen were found in Podkolzin Alley. Sam Bennett was found on the waste heap for pennies on the dollar. (Bought LOW).
Reinhart (Bought LOW)
Forsling and Lundell were locked up long term before they went supernova. (Contrast Nurse and Bouchard…waiting too long) (Contrast Broberg and Holloway…jackboot to their throats to sign unfair contracts).
This all day. Even a healthy Frederic wouldn’t have the speed and tenacity to break up the Panthers forecheck
They aren’t even buying high.
He just had an awful season – pre and post trade. They are buying low but seemingly paying high…..
The Oilers are buying high based on Frederic’s two good seasons. The duration offered is absurd for a bottom six player.
Is he more likely to be Tanner Jeannot or more likely to be Brandon Hagel?
Yes, this a dangerous signing by Bowman
They are paying based on those seasons but at a time when value should be low due to a terrible season and playoffs.
As I said, buying at a low time but paying high.
Bennet signed a 4 year $4.425 mill deal after coming to Florida. that year he had 10 goals and 27 pts. He did not have more then 36 pts in a season to that point (7 years prior). So they never bought low. they traded for low, he had a solid run as a panther that season, then signed him on potential.
Frederic is no different. 27, bought a ton of UFA years and could be our Sam Bennett light. i like him as a 3C (he said same in his garbage day presser). And cap % is way lower then bennett’s was at time of signing. for this team, he is a solid 3C.
I’ve seen Frederic play a few times as a Bruin, and there was one game when he was mic’d up where he absolutely crushed a guy into the boards, and then screamed at the opposition bench “who else wants some.”
He lost some of that swagger this year … I don’t know if it was the injury, but we just didn’t see that version of Frederic in an Oiler’s jersey.
If he can get back to being a huge d*ck, who pops in 15-20 goals per year, then this deal is going to be fine.
I also think you all are underestimating how much the limited pool of NHL talent is going to be overpaid on July 1. Frederic could have gotten way more on the open market as a UFA … case in point: check out what the Jets are going to be paying Jonny Toews this season … the money thrown around this off-season is going to be super silly.
Your point about how Frederic plays is the deal here. There just aren’t that many guys that can do that. Kane is one, but he is older and isn’t reliable defensively, Frederic is. Kane also has a ref problem, I wonder what Stan thinks about that
Teams play with less worry having guys like that, it happened when Kane came. Imagine what would have happened this SCF is Kane and Frederic weren’t on the team? DoD level running around by the Panthers and the Oilers even more out of it. Bennett and Tkachuk were awful to Connor last SCF when Kane was hurt
Most teams still have a big tough player or more. There’s a reason, and usually those that don’t want one
Honest question, not meant to offend. Is there any professional reason for McD to sign for more than 3-4 years? He has done everything he can to bring a cup to EDM and management has not done a sufficient job in terms of roster construction to put the Oilers over the top (yet). The sins of Chia are legendary in the annals of incompetence, no need to review. Holland did enough to turn the franchise into a SC contender, but also handicapped the team with enough bad moves to make that window shorter than it had to be. The JJ moves last summer were not enough to get them past FLA and everyone of those old guys is a year older and/or going to be gone.
You look at FLA and see the astute trades they made (yes, I know Chucky had leverage to force the trade) and waiver pickups and watch those guys take their game to a much higher level once they arrive, and you wonder if Zito and his team are just that much better at identifying talent with room to improve. Maybe it’s Maurice and his system? Both?
The Oilers probably give McD the best chance at a cup over the next 2-3 years but after that, who knows. Given the track history here, why would McD have a lot of confidence that management can get the job done given the cap constraints and lack of young talent.
I’m wondering if a 3-year contract could be best for both sides if it’s team friendly. Load up and go for broke three more times. I also wonder what he is messaging to Bouchard: he said Bouch has to get signed in one breath, and that he will sign so long as the window is open here, in another breath.
I’m thinking McDavid sign for 2-3 years and I’m perfectly ok with that.
If McDavid matches Leon and they keep Bouchard to 10 per, that leaves the window well open to add. I think three years of that would be fun.
Also, knock wood, after three if they still haven’t got there, you want McDavid young enough that you can reload for the back half of Messier I mean Leon’s contract.
Any contract McDavid signs is team friendly.
Can’t agree at all – current top AAV is $14MM and he’s going to jump that by at least $2MM and, while he is the best player in the league as his high end is the highest and his dominance is a top 3 player is consistent year after year but, on any given night, and even in any given year, he’s not the best player – heck, he’s had two full seasons where he wasn’t the best player in the league over the course of the season.
It pains me to say it because McDrai are worth every penny but Drai signing at $14M and seemingly McD at $16M, whether short or long term, added to $10M+ for Bouch and $9.25M+ for Nurse makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for any GM to ice a balanced team without a steady stream of high quality ELCs. Those four will add up to $50M in 26-27.
In contrast, Florida’s top 4 (Bob, Bark, Tkac, Rein) will be $38M in 26-27. The $12M difference get you Verhaege and Forsling just to be equal.
Unfortunately, McDrai will be 33-34 years old by the time the cap catches up enough to ice a balanced roster. Until then it will remain top heavy with big sacrifices in other areas (ex. $3.6M combined for goalies, $7M third line, and/or $4M fourth line), it’s simple math.
My prediction, the Oilers finally get it done in the 2030-2031 season when the salary cap is close to $150M.
Are the Oilers really that old? Remove Henrique, Perry and Roy and is this team old?
I think it would depend who’s replacing them. Savoie working out plus two more Podkolzin type adds would re-balance the spread nicely.
They have a lot of forwards in their 30’s still
Leauge average is 28.6. If we move on from Arvi, Kane and Henrique and they are replaced at league average (even keeping Perry),bringing in Philp and Savoie we come in a hair BELOW the league average age…
I was planning on sharing this while waiting for today’s post. It seems to go hand in hand…
https://www.sportsnet.ca/podcasts/32-thoughts/mcdavid-wants-a-winner/
You think Henrique is done here LT? Again bias, just wonder if there’s not another role for him, like a 3rd line winger that can take draws and PK. I do realize that’s too much money for a 4C.