Time for some true confessions. Back in 2015, I believed (and wrote) that Peter Chiarelli was a solid hire, and that he could lead the Oilers to a Stanley Cup. The following year, Chiarelli signed Milan Lucic and I wrote the item above. Both endorsements failed miserably. I’ll own that, and confess to some hesitation in recommending Trent Frederic as a “close to $4 million times eight years” option.
I do like this player. He plays with a rugged edge, he is responsible and he can post offense as a complementary player that does not include a linemate who can push the river. Here’s a look at the last four seasons, all with Boston:
All numbers via Natural Stat Trick, and five-on-five only minutes
Frederic’s offense was solid until 2024-25, when the entire team suffered through a slump. He is not an offensive driver, so when Charlie Coyle (his most common center last season) slumps badly, the entire line suffers a downbeat. Frederic’s goal share last season was in the ditch, but his expected goal share was 50 percent. He’s a solid player as an outscorer, even as (as you can see) he played on a team that exceeded the expected during the good old days. I’m not going to spend the summer talking him up as I did with Chiarelli (I muted my Lucic verbal in 2016 summer because Edmonton dealt Taylor Hall) but will say that if Frederic signs here (looks like it) I can see the appeal.
Many of you have asked about Bruce McCurdy’s celebration of life. It is tomorrow. I’m including Kevin McCurdy’s tweet with details below. He was a kind and wonderful man, a dear friend and an enormous loss to this community.
I keep seeing stuff popping up on SM, and it almost seems like the Oilers are (still) in the Panthers heads, more than the Panthers are in the Oilers heads.
To me the gap was/is the wingers. Their top 6 vs our top 6. If you consider Hyman, Nuge, Perry, Brown and Kane as top 6 (some barely), 3 were injured (out completely, hand, concussed) and 1 was neutered (and may always end up being neutered) to the point of distraction. So they were down to 1 functional/healthy top 6 winger, and had to ask their #7+ wingers to step into top 6 roles and saw it off vs Florida’s top 6 wingers. That’s a big mountain to climb, suspect the room knew that, and may have been part of what showed on the ice.
Oilers need to add 3 legit top 6 wingers to Nuge, Hyman, and one of Brown/Kane/Perry, at least 2 should bring both filth and finish. Those are $7M+ players. Not sure how they get there with the (soon to be) 4 big contracts. Something needs to give (I know what I’d do but not sure if it’s possible, depends how ruthless management wants to be vs preserving relationships). Another factor, (my) rough math is always ~1M/10 pts (rounded up) for scoring forwards. Connor and Leon’s deals, despite them being tops in the world, are a bit dear by that method, making it harder to satisfy their self-stated desire(s) to win. Complications abound.
Stepping back, all of this is possibly just deck chairs on the Titanic, because as someone else posted succinctly a few days ago, there were layers of interconnected factors that seemed to be working (conspiring) against them (which I’ve thought since the early days of the muggings, when we were told that Connor and Leon needed to wait to get the calls, that they would earn them, when they were more senior, i.e. veterans). I just don’t see that going away any time soon. Maybe Oilers fans should just be happy to be invited to the party.
Hey LT et al,
Well LT, you always say the best posters are in here and I agree.
Happy Indigenous Day folks.
Something happened yesterday and today. I was given an award by BC Hockey for my work in promoting Indigenous participation in hockey in BC.
I’d like to share the news here with all of you lovely folks.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=583661461462085
https://www.bchockey.net/news-listing/bc-hockey-awards-indigenous-impact-and-legacy-award-ben-berland
Thanks for allowing me to share.
That’s awesome, thanks for sharing!
Congratulations unto you!
Congrats CC!!!
Congrats – and thanks for sharing!
Fantastic news!! Congratulations!
I also am concerned about all the injured on this team who will not be ready for the 2026 Training Camp. I’ve thought all through the playoffs that this will open a door for up and coming AHLers.
Then I think, but how does it help these players or the organization if the coach only gives them 5 or 6 minutes per game?
I understand the appeal of re-signing Perry, but he had an odds-defying season.
I know that he has radically changed how he takes care of his body compared to previous years. However, what are odds he defies the odds vs human biology again, or his really unique odds of being an unsuccessful Stanley Cup Finalist again next season to make it 6 of the past 7 seasons?
Well we all thought he was washed last summer too. I’m not betting against him.
He is money below circles, but unless they can find a way to deal with him in a role the rest of the ice…
Im am not sold on Trent Fredrick. Hes a shell of his former self ( boston) had the best value of him. Hes a million dollar player at best. But i still don’t want him.
Agreed. Some players are best optimized within specific team systems. Frederic was well suited to the Bruin system and now his injury really affected his mobility. Seems crazy to give him more than a 1- 2 year contract.
I haven’t seen the value in many Oiler games to date. Must be good in the room
I went back and tried to watch some highlights of Frederic from previous years because I just don’t see the appeal. I appreciate you posting the numbers, LT, but I don’t see his past as enough of a track record. I don’t really see any high-end skill that most upcoming prospects in this league can’t bring. I guess it sort of comes down to how hurt he was… That said, I really didn’t see any drive or truculence from this player in the playoffs. He seemed timid and honestly a bit lost – not intimidating… just a bit of a nothing burger of a player. As a fan, I didn’t find him interesting or entertaining at all. Kinda hard to cheer for, honestly… and I really don’t say that about many players, but for this sort of role, I want a gamer! He was also so flat in his recent presser. I dunno. I don’t see it. I don’t care if your ankle is injured… would Corey Perry be that subdued if he had an ankle injury? Nah. He is an agitator and someone who stirs the pot and is part of elevating the team to compete. I thought Frederic should have been healthy scratched for most of the playoffs and didn’t really understand at all why the coach kept playing him. I really hope this team knows what they are doing because I also don’t understand why you go long on this player type. I know the money isn’t out of this world, but I feel like when you’re a contender players should be banging down your door for an opportunity to play with this team and be willing to take team-friendly deals to do so. I just don’t see why the Oilers need to take this kind of risk. I don’t see Frederic being a difference-maker, so why not just get bargain contracts for your bottom 6? I worry that this is a sunk cost thing… if it’s not, then I think someone in the org knows something that isn’t apparent from the body of work or anything seen on the ice thus far. Anyways, I will hope that I am proven wrong, but I honestly think it’s one of the most puzzling moves this team has made in a long time if it comes to fruition.
You either have the puck or you are retrieving the puck – was a simple Daryl Sutter slogan from the LAK days. That is kinda how the Panthers played.
Do we have enough of these guys on our team? This simple game can be played by Trevor Lewis, AJ Greer ect. we need a few value contracts that want the puck more than. The other guy.
I’ve always said, hockey is an attacking game. When you attack with the puck that’s called offense and when you attack without the puck, that’s called defense.
So what are the odds that in two decades we learn about the great Panthers doping scandal? Oh look Ekblad playing the best hockey of his career after being caught doping. Nothing to see here folks.
As much as one hopes that this needs to looked into I highly highly doubt bettman will walk down this path. Hockey is barely growing in sunbelt inspite if all the championships. I expect the trend to continue. I will not blame CMD to sign a short term deal here and then bail out to a US market needs of “growing”. I think his contract will be a tell. Players know more about all this. So if he knows something that we dont he will pull the trigger. Lets wait and see. If he signs long term here we can safely assume there is no scandal and each team is treated the same.
Connor might decide if he can’t beat them, might as well move to Florida and be a Panther. YIKES!!!
He could rein them in silently like all the rest that they do. I suppose the investigation that has no credibility is about that
Just have Evander Kane dope up and I’m sure the they will crack down on it across the league.
I mean. They certainly had more energy. It was hard to watch as a fan because it just seemed like we were out-hustled completely in that series. I mean… it’s one possible answer for that.
I also would be curious to really break down the games from a tactical perspective because I do believe we got badly out-coached in terms of adjusting to the opponent, etc.
Just handily beat.
When the Oilers got rolling and wiped out the WC, I thought they would surprise Florida with their energy, but it was the exact opposite.
Anyways, it’s so hard to know, but… I mean, it’s the NHL, It’s Florida… I am confident that if anyone ever found out about it, the league would DEFINITELY sweep it under the rug.
It is pretty wild that Ekblad was just caught for this very thing…
Also, 100% Evander Kane would get investigated before anyone on the Panthers would. haha.
It’s funny, because each and every year I become more ‘conspiratorial’ about the league… I am a fairly rational human, but man the NHL with their officiating and favoritism makes is REALLY hard not to be.
I am with you wondering here. I’m telling you it will be peptides.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9631397/
My first suspicion started with Kulikov last year. He was a placeholder when he played 13 minutes per game for us. Fast forward to his 33/34 seasons and he’s a resurgent and aggressive player.
You just don’t see guys turn back the clock like that.
Even Bennett, he went from a draft bust in Calgary to Conn Smyth winning wrecking ball at age 29.
There’s something in the water in Florida.
Peptide clinics are literally everywhere in Miami.
https://alonsomartinmd.com/wellness/peptide-therapy/
Looking up peptides I came across Nate Schmidt getting suspended around 2017 for peds
So, 2 previously caught now playing for the same team. Mmm?
Remember when the first player signed was always Devin Shore?
I would prefer the last few roste spots are saved for players that shake free from other clubs or pop free somewhere. Or role players.
Do the Oilers fully recognize what they need? I’m not sure.
Looking backwards, after 2024 loss they were not recognizing the shortcomings. It seems like they felt if they just had a few more goal , then that is the difference and they signed goal scorers. It was a mistake that could be seen at the time.
Could Matt Savoie be the offensive driver on a 3rd line centred by Frederic, with Podz on the left?
Speed, size, and skill
Savoie is not a driver (from watching him play this past year) – he is a complimentary give and go type skill winger that should thrive with a smart skilled center (like Leon).
He does have attributes that can fit on a third line – he is a tenacious forechecker, 2-way responsibility, energy, etc. but I wouldn’t expect him to drive offence on a third line.
I get that the question was initially about signing Frederic, but the coach was sitting right there in yesterday’s presser yet despite all of the talk about what position Frederic would play going forward, none of that was directed or commented on by the guy who 100% decides that sort of thing.
They’re apparently working on extensions for Brown and Perry?
I get Perry. Still wouldn’t do it, but I get it.
This Connor Brown obsession/delusion/coach crutch thing just has to end. Wasting that cap hit on someone who both has a very low ceiling and is clearly overvalued by the coach is a massive problem.
Perry had an amazing season, but I also think the over-valued comment fits there. He just is not a 5v5 solution, and he’s 40. I’d thank him for his efforts and let him walk unless he wants to sign near minimum.
When Brown is on he is solid. A different PK setup and a bottom 6 role would be fine, but I think they will overpay. These are not the first deals you do.
I get Brown he’s still only 31. While this Corey Perry obsession/ delusion/ coach crutch thing is what I wonder about. Wasting that cap hit on a 40-year-old because he wants another cup before he retires when the team seriously needs to inject more youth into the lineup.
Corey Perry was the most productive forward in the bottom 6 all season.
Is it sustainable? Who knows?
Perry was the one who got everyone fired up in Game 4. He’s a gamer
Let’s bring back the same crew
thats gonna get Connor to resign
No, the GM said straight up there are going to be changes – said he’s focusing most on forwards and tending.
There is quite a bit of speculation he’s looking to move Arvidsson and Kane for cap flexibility in that regard.
That’s not what I said – no doubt the forward mix needs to change. But why punt one of our best wingers from last season who probably won’t cost much and won’t need to sign for more than one year at time? Because you don’t like his age? I care more about his performance.
Brown is fine if he’s signed to be a third liner with limited term.
Oh and around a million per season.
If Brown played balls out and was outstanding on PK fine. But he wasn’t and posed no threat to score. Given he’s small why bother?
St. Albert astronomer, hockey columnist remembered
I don’t like the sounds of that. Who is Frederic going to play with that’s an offensive driver, especially if he is 3C. Potential wingers could be Podz and CBrown, neither are offensive drivers.
Maybe Frederic is 3LW or 3RW, but again where is an offensive driver for that line. It’s not Henrique anymore.
At 4M on the 3rd line doesn’t Frederic need to be the driver?
Maybe Bowman sees a healthy Frederic as a winger for Drai or McDavid.
If they sign him to that, then I’d agree he will get top 6 time or 3C. Whatever it is, set the lines and leave them (with 97/29 apart at all times, unless chasing late). I really want the Oilers to work on stable lines next season. The Panthers didn’t change their lineup and the benefits are clear.
Podz-Frederic-Brown would be a low event line, they would need to demonstrate shut down ability to be able to play enough to warrant the contracts, as I don’t see a lot of offense.
Connor & Leon need better than a healthy Trent Frederic on either of their wings. If Henrique gets moved, Nuge might be 3c and he’s an even better center than Charlie Coyle.
“Who is Frederic going to play with that’s an offensive driver, especially if he is 3C.”
Perhaps Patrick Kane is available 😃
97 made comments the other day along the lines of wanting to sign if he can see a path to winning. I wonder if he sees the proposed overpayment to Frederic as running counter to this….or maybe that is just wishful thinking on my part that he is telling his agent to tell Bowman not to do anything stupid.
I think two straight Stanley Cup Finals, his owner spending on everything possible, his managers trading picks and prospects for help now, etc., etc. all leads to showing this organization intends on nothing but winning and has been one of the most winningest franchises over the last number of seasons.
I think his comments were just words to get through the questions he knew was coming and there all but zero chance he isn’t signing for at least 4-5 years in the coming month or so.
I agree with OP, but I also had the same thought… haha. I think it was my own wishful thinking…
I feel like talking to McDavid like 48 hours or whatever it was after he lost the second straight Stanley Cup Final was probably not super wise. haha. I think they should have given him a week…
Bruce you are dearly missed 😢. Miss those stories and insight he shared to all.
8 years @ $4M for Frederic? Gross.
I got looking at this goalie list last night:
https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-fantasy-hockey-top-25-goaltender-rankings-pools-282860450
Who here (on the list) is; under 30, under contract, and is a clear upgrade to our current tender? I might add under $6M, but definitely under $8M. On quick browse, I would suggest the first ten names are off the list, which leaves names such as (GP/W/SO/GAA/SV%) Binnington (56/28/3/2.69/.900), Swayman (58/22/4/3.11/.892), and Demko (23/10/1/2.90/.889) to name a few.
Oh… and I’m not suggesting these above names are an upgrade either…
Jake Allens .908 career sv% enters the chat
I like both Leaf goalies. Either/Or. Stolarz is 31 & Woll is 26.
Joseph Woll $3.67M for the next three seasons & Anthony Stolarz $2.50M will be UFA after next season.
I’d go with a Stolarz/ Skinner tandem.
It’s incredible when you remember that we had Stolarz right
And they wouldn’t give him a chance to play. Big mistake.
I like Thatcher Demko as a massive buy low if the Nucks would deal with the Oilers again.
The risk is clear – he’s just constantly injured and doesn’t play. With that said, the risk is one year and $5MM that’s all that’s left on that contract.
If the worst comes to fruition, well, the starting goalie from the past two seasons is there to take back over 1A – we know that’s good enough to get us to the playoffs (and really even to the finals with a bit of help that can be found mid-season).
Upside is a top 5-10 goalie in the world.
Kane for Demko … both teams assume some risk, but the upside for the Oilers is huge. Don’t underestimate the Oilers medical staff.
Really depends on status of Demko’s knee.
Many of us have been here a very long time—both on this planet and here at this blog. We probably know each other’s quirks in ways that people with whom we interacting in the real world don’t know us.
Woodguy’s an absolute legend and the only poster who I have had the occasion to meet in real life.
I had plans to go for lunch with Lowetide, but Covid hit making it a challenge and I moved far away after few years later.
I’m back in Canada now, but in the “bring cash” province, too far away to attend.
I had never had the occasion to meet Bruce in the real world, but I’ve interacted with him online since 2009. That’s a considerable length of time. He had a measured approach to analysis and way of disagreeing without making things personal in a way that was simply unmatched.
As I imagine you folks know by now, I’m a fairly opinionated guy. Bruce had no qualms with stepping in and challenging my opinions or voicing disagreement. He did it respectfully and with a level of class that was unparalleled.
Over the years, I learned a lot from Bruce. He was the main reason I still read the COH. Bruce set a high bar in teaching us how to interact online,
Here’s to those who are lucky enough to attend in celebrating Bruce’s life!
Your post perfectly summarizes an insight of Bruce that many of us felt.
His hockey history knowledge was like a computer bank.
I’ve listened to Lowetide over the years. At least a couple times a week. depended on my work schedule. I always got a kick out “sun, moon and stars bit” when Bruce would talk about his hobby as he was so passionate about it.
I never personally met Bruce, but from my online interactions and just listening to him, it was no doubt he was a true gentleman
Thanks for this, Ryan. I found myself talking to my friends and loved ones of Bruce’s passing and finding it interesting that I never met him and he certainly would not even remember me from online interactions as I read everyday, but don’t post that often. I really appreciated Bruce and his approach to hockey and to discussions online. I found out the other day that a close friend of mine knew Bruce when he posted about his celebration of life. They knew each other not through hockey, but through the astronomy hobby they both shared. Bruce was a truly outstanding person who will be so missed by so many.
Bruce was one of a kind on this site; his commentary was always balanced and thoughtful. He never tried to ‘win’ an argument, but rather provided perspective without expectation or need for validation. this place was richer for his participation. His presence in the Oilogosphere will be missed.
A lot of us could probably benefit from trying to be a little more like Bruce.
It will make for an interesting/challenging contract negotiation next summer when Podkolzin outplays him.
Podkolzin could be an offer sheet target next summer.
Yes if they both play wing. Maybe that’s why the conversation shifted to Fredrick at center.
100%
I was gutted a while back when Kevin told me the date knowing I would be out of the continent. I really want to be there. With that said, it won’t be the same but I will be able to stream tomorrow night at 9pm and look forward to seeing some of you there.
This is very good information to include in the analysis – thank you.
For me, I would change the word from “solid” to “OK” in the context of signing a player near (or at) prime age for real term (7-8) years and a material cap hit ($3.5MM to $4MM).
He’s had two productive season in the AHL – 17G/31P and 18G/40P – both from the third line mostly and with little PP time. This is just below where Warren Foegele trended in his last couple of years.
Remember this team didn’t want to pay Foegele over $3MM or so for a couple of years and he added a bit more PK (Frederic has killed a little but not much I don’t think). Frederic is more physical and he can play center from accounts. I know his faceoffs suck but that is such a small part of the position – he says he wants to play more center. At the very least that versatility is important.
A main difference here is Foegele signed after scoring 20G and, while he had an up and down playoffs, he produced in the SCF when most others didn’t.
Frederic is coming off an awful season including pre-injury/trade (8G/15P in 53 games – blah).
I look forward to cheering for the guy but, really, his ceiling is probably being value for the rumored contract for a few years – there isn’t much chance he outplays it and I’m just not sure why its necessary.
The cap was tighter when Foegele signed and players of his I’ll got squeezed hard.
Big tough guys that can play are always at a premium.
He wasn’t a big tough guy that could play this season – I mean he has been in the past, for two years of his career but he wasn’t that this season.
History matters but prior season generally matters most – its being 100% discounted in the speculated deal – from what I can see.
Even hobbled Frederic was responsible defensively. That is the key point moving forward. You can’t have guys that don’t get it as we saw the Panthers hit 100% and roll us
We have to remember that Foegele and McLeod are perimeter players. Foegele will get his points but for the love of Pete has everyone forgot his poor defensive play and lack of bite?
I can see Trent Frederic on a third line with Nuge & Matthew Savoie. And I totally expect to see Noah Philp centering the fourth line.
I see Frederic centering that 3rd line.
A couple weeks ago I had visions of Nuge becoming the long term 3C but I think Frederic’s ability to play C is one of the reasons they are willing to risk these contract terms.
I hope Savoie is mostly 2RW this season – that position is is empty as they come, he’s got the pedigree, the skill-set, the skill, the work ethic, etc. Savoie coming in hot in camp and earning looks and running with it would be huge for this team.
Nuge might be a better center than Frederic. But Nuge is also a good winger. I’m in the belief they’ll be looking to upgrade the top six wingers.
Again!
Cowboy, no coach in many cycles see Nuge as C other than out of necessity. He’s not one
I remember Foegs as a fly-by guy last playoffs. Maybe I’m not giving him credit.
He didn’t have a good playoffs and was healthy scratched for a game or two. He did score a couple of goals in the SCF if I remember correctly.
He was outscored two playoffs in a row
Not to mention Curlock pointing out repeatedly his defensive mistakes
Bowman had better be right!
The Montgomery Bruins played a very different style of game than the Knoblauch Oilers, and those rosters had a different types of player.
That said, if the Oilers want to beat the Panthers, they likely have to diversify the way they are able play offensively. And one way to get Knoblauch to diversify the offensive approach perhaps is to give him more of a different kind of player.
Hardnosed types that can play.
I’m like LHMF, even Frederic does provide value for the contract, it doesn’t make it a good signing at the time. Winning in this league is more about getting contract value for player than the actual player itself in alot of ways.
As I said in another post – best case scenario is that the player is value for contract for most of the deal – there is almost no chance to outperform it.
It just doesn’t seem necessary to commit $30MM to get his guy signed – coming off a objectively horrid season.
This is a great point. There is a style of play the Oilers haven’t hit that will be needed. Skinner is a talented good player but he is not it for example. On a different team he could play the Reinhart role, but not this one
Who are we competing with for this contract? Seems like we’re just outbidding ourselves. Looking like Pierre Engvall but worse.
And yes I realize with some of these contracts moving already July 1 is gonna be a shit show
I do think he could get near $4MM on the open market – maybe not for 7 years (obviously not for 8 years though) but the point is valid, in my opinion.
They never learn. Ference, Lucic, Kassian, K.Russell.
But Holloway at 2.3 and Foegele at 3.5 were too much.
Not sure how Frederic will be a better 3C than Ryan McLeod.
Is there anyone in management that were involved in the signings of those 4? I’m not sure the management that made those mistakes are involved to show any learning.
I don’t agree with the speculated Frederic deal but I think the level of play for the two seasons prior to this could help this team win in the playoffs more that Ryan McLeod did (and I liked his defence, PK, puck transition, etc.).
Ryan McLeod was traded for Matt Savoie who should be in the middle 6/top 6 for the next two seasons on his ELC – that is real real value.
McLeod said to media perimeter play was ok. What more do you need to know?
After watching us lose again nowhere near the net?
Any team that can fit him. Listen to what the GM said about him
I am hopeful that the Oilers walk away from the apparent 8X3.75 or (heaven forbid 4M). The old “what have you done for me lately” comes to mind. I like the player just fine, but this deal seems all too familiar to me. A fading coke machine with an injury. No reason to go 8 years. If this does not turn out, the club is banging their head again…Mcdavid is too important to let this happen. Are we not past this stage? We wait…
No where near Kassian’s deal. TF is 27 he’s in prime. He will heal. Completely different player. And a way lower % of cap
Bruce. You are dearly missed. I will be celebrating your life from afar, but every single day, we all miss you! Thanks for all you did and thanks LT/Kevin and family, for allowing all to celebrate with you.
Dear Bruce,
We all miss you. I’m sure many of us we’ll celebrate your life tomorrow either in person or from a far.