Time for some true confessions. Back in 2015, I believed (and wrote) that Peter Chiarelli was a solid hire, and that he could lead the Oilers to a Stanley Cup. The following year, Chiarelli signed Milan Lucic and I wrote the item above. Both endorsements failed miserably. I’ll own that, and confess to some hesitation in recommending Trent Frederic as a “close to $4 million times eight years” option.
I do like this player. He plays with a rugged edge, he is responsible and he can post offense as a complementary player that does not include a linemate who can push the river. Here’s a look at the last four seasons, all with Boston:
All numbers via Natural Stat Trick, and five-on-five only minutes
Frederic’s offense was solid until 2024-25, when the entire team suffered through a slump. He is not an offensive driver, so when Charlie Coyle (his most common center last season) slumps badly, the entire line suffers a downbeat. Frederic’s goal share last season was in the ditch, but his expected goal share was 50 percent. He’s a solid player as an outscorer, even as (as you can see) he played on a team that exceeded the expected during the good old days. I’m not going to spend the summer talking him up as I did with Chiarelli (I muted my Lucic verbal in 2016 summer because Edmonton dealt Taylor Hall) but will say that if Frederic signs here (looks like it) I can see the appeal.
Many of you have asked about Bruce McCurdy’s celebration of life. It is tomorrow. I’m including Kevin McCurdy’s tweet with details below. He was a kind and wonderful man, a dear friend and an enormous loss to this community.
97 made comments the other day along the lines of wanting to sign if he can see a path to winning. I wonder if he sees the proposed overpayment to Frederic as running counter to this….or maybe that is just wishful thinking on my part that he is telling his agent to tell Bowman not to do anything stupid.
Bruce you are dearly missed 😢. Miss those stories and insight he shared to all.
8 years @ $4M for Frederic? Gross.
I got looking at this goalie list last night:
https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-fantasy-hockey-top-25-goaltender-rankings-pools-282860450
Who here (on the list) is; under 30, under contract, and is a clear upgrade to our current tender? I might add under $6M, but definitely under $8M. On quick browse, I would suggest the first ten names are off the list, which leaves names such as (GP/W/SO/GAA/SV%) Binnington (56/28/3/2.69/.900), Swayman (58/22/4/3.11/.892), and Demko (23/10/1/2.90/.889) to name a few.
Oh… and I’m not suggesting these above names are an upgrade either…
Jake Allens .908 career sv% enters the chat
I like both Leaf goalies. Either/Or. Stolarz is 31 & Woll is 26.
Joseph Woll $3.67M for the next three seasons & Anthony Stolarz $2.50M will be UFA after next season.
I’d go with a Stolarz/ Skinner tandem.
Many of us have been here a very long time—both on this planet and here at this blog. We probably know each other’s quirks in ways that people with whom we interacting in the real world don’t know us.
Woodguy’s an absolute legend and the only poster who I have had the occasion to meet in real life.
I had plans to go for lunch with Lowetide, but Covid hit making it a challenge and I moved far away after few years later.
I’m back in Canada now, but in the “bring cash” province, too far away to attend.
I had never had the occasion to meet Bruce in the real world, but I’ve interacted with him online since 2009. That’s a considerable length of time. He had a measured approach to analysis and way of disagreeing without making things personal in a way that was simply unmatched.
As I imagine you folks know by now, I’m a fairly opinionated guy. Bruce had no qualms with stepping in and challenging my opinions or voicing disagreement. He did it respectfully and with a level of class that was unparalleled.
Over the years, I learned a lot from Bruce. He was the main reason I still read the COH. Bruce set a high bar in teaching us how to interact online,
Here’s to those who are lucky enough to attend in celebrating Bruce’s life!
Your post perfectly summarizes an insight of Bruce that many of us felt.
His hockey history knowledge was like a computer bank.
I’ve listened to Lowetide over the years. At least a couple times a week. depended on my work schedule. I always got a kick out “sun, moon and stars bit” when Bruce would talk about his hobby as he was so passionate about it.
I never personally met Bruce, but from my online interactions and just listening to him, it was no doubt he was a true gentleman
Bruce was one of a kind on this site; his commentary was always balanced and thoughtful. He never tried to ‘win’ an argument, but rather provided perspective without expectation or need for validation. this place was richer for his participation. His presence in the Oilogosphere will be missed.
A lot of us could probably benefit from trying to be a little more like Bruce.
It will make for an interesting/challenging contract negotiation next summer when Podkolzin outplays him.
Podkolzin could be an offer sheet target next summer.
Yes if they both play wing. Maybe that’s why the conversation shifted to Fredrick at center.
I was gutted a while back when Kevin told me the date knowing I would be out of the continent. I really want to be there. With that said, it won’t be the same but I will be able to stream tomorrow night at 9pm and look forward to seeing some of you there.
This is very good information to include in the analysis – thank you.
For me, I would change the word from “solid” to “OK” in the context of signing a player near (or at) prime age for real term (7-8) years and a material cap hit ($3.5MM to $4MM).
He’s had two productive season in the AHL – 17G/31P and 18G/40P – both from the third line mostly and with little PP time. This is just below where Warren Foegele trended in his last couple of years.
Remember this team didn’t want to pay Foegele over $3MM or so for a couple of years and he added a bit more PK (Frederic has killed a little but not much I don’t think). Frederic is more physical and he can play center from accounts. I know his faceoffs suck but that is such a small part of the position – he says he wants to play more center. At the very least that versatility is important.
A main difference here is Foegele signed after scoring 20G and, while he had an up and down playoffs, he produced in the SCF when most others didn’t.
Frederic is coming off an awful season including pre-injury/trade (8G/15P in 53 games – blah).
I look forward to cheering for the guy but, really, his ceiling is probably being value for the rumored contract for a few years – there isn’t much chance he outplays it and I’m just not sure why its necessary.
The cap was tighter when Foegele signed and players of his I’ll got squeezed hard.
Big tough guys that can play are always at a premium.
He wasn’t a big tough guy that could play this season – I mean he has been in the past, for two years of his career but he wasn’t that this season.
History matters but prior season generally matters most – its being 100% discounted in the speculated deal – from what I can see.
I can see Trent Frederic on a third line with Nuge & Matthew Savoie. And I totally expect to see Noah Philp centering the fourth line.
I see Frederic centering that 3rd line.
A couple weeks ago I had visions of Nuge becoming the long term 3C but I think Frederic’s ability to play C is one of the reasons they are willing to risk these contract terms.
I hope Savoie is mostly 2RW this season – that position is is empty as they come, he’s got the pedigree, the skill-set, the skill, the work ethic, etc. Savoie coming in hot in camp and earning looks and running with it would be huge for this team.
I remember Foegs as a fly-by guy last playoffs. Maybe I’m not giving him credit.
Bowman had better be right!
The Montgomery Bruins played a very different style of game than the Knoblauch Oilers, and those rosters had a different types of player.
That said, if the Oilers want to beat the Panthers, they likely have to diversify the way they are able play offensively. And one way to get Knoblauch to diversify the offensive approach perhaps is to give him more of a different kind of player.
Hardnosed types that can play.
I’m like LHMF, even Frederic does provide value for the contract, it doesn’t make it a good signing at the time. Winning in this league is more about getting contract value for player than the actual player itself in alot of ways.
As I said in another post – best case scenario is that the player is value for contract for most of the deal – there is almost no chance to outperform it.
It just doesn’t seem necessary to commit $30MM to get his guy signed – coming off a objectively horrid season.
Who are we competing with for this contract? Seems like we’re just outbidding ourselves. Looking like Pierre Engvall but worse.
And yes I realize with some of these contracts moving already July 1 is gonna be a shit show
I do think he could get near $4MM on the open market – maybe not for 7 years (obviously not for 8 years though) but the point is valid, in my opinion.
I am hopeful that the Oilers walk away from the apparent 8X3.75 or (heaven forbid 4M). The old “what have you done for me lately” comes to mind. I like the player just fine, but this deal seems all too familiar to me. A fading coke machine with an injury. No reason to go 8 years. If this does not turn out, the club is banging their head again…Mcdavid is too important to let this happen. Are we not past this stage? We wait…
Bruce. You are dearly missed. I will be celebrating your life from afar, but every single day, we all miss you! Thanks for all you did and thanks LT/Kevin and family, for allowing all to celebrate with you.
Dear Bruce,
We all miss you. I’m sure many of us we’ll celebrate your life tomorrow either in person or from a far.