Oilers fans are expecting big news today. If I were a betting man, and I am not, my do-re-mi would be on a new deal for Trent Frederic. The Darnell Nurse theory is fed by wishful thinking, strange internet fantasticals and of course the demon that is anticipation on a day like this. I would say dealing Nurse today is as likely as Edmonton picking in the first round tonight. Expect Frederic for long and $3.75 million and that’s probably your day.
I think the Oilers management group may well be contemplating a Nurse deal, but the timing is tight this summer. My understanding of his deal is the no-movement eases around July 1, 2027. At that time, via PuckPedia, Nurse will submit a 10-team no-trade list. I think management could make the case to Nurse one year from now and have his ear, but this summer? Man, that seems unlikely.
There’s also the matter of the transition from Mattias Ekholm on the top pair, to another lefty. I wrote about the impact of the LH defense in the finals, and in my opinion it’s a big damn deal. If you don’t trust Nurse over a clearly injured Ekholm for the game of the year, that’s a tell.
If we’re writing this era of the Oilers, it is a tragedy (duh!) and Nurse would represent one of three sons sentenced to live outside the city limits by the town fathers. I don’t think the two brothers who would remain would endorse such a deal, while also recognizing the reality of the cap, sunk cost, and the fact nothing lasts forever.
For today, think Frederic. If there’s a Nurse trade, or a deal that gets Edmonton into the first round tonight, hell’s bells that makes for a fascinating day. For me, I don’t see the wisdom in trading Nurse when the top LH defenseman is 35 and was running on fumes last we saw him.
On the Lowdown today, we preview the draft, free agency, trade rumours and even some real ones if they come. Lansky and Yaremchuk guests, noon to 2 on Sports 1440.
The 5 biggest questions facing the Edmonton Oilers this summer
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6453679/2025/06/27/oilers-roster-questions-2025-nhl-draft/
Nicely done LT!
That one play also highlights the impact of two injuries on that 5-some. Your analysis suggests to me how a healthy Ekholm and Hyman could likely have made enough of a difference to take it to Game 7. The depth that was real and effective against Kings, Vegans, & Stars was not quite enough against a powerful Panthers.
Something you didn’t mention, but alluded to, was what I would call defensive discipline against a proven threat. Specifically, the discipline of forwards to support the D – especially against an aggressive, opportunistic, and repeatedly effective Panthers forecheck. We saw great defensive awareness from Draisaitl during the regular season. We heard about his aspirations for the Selke. The SCF would have been a great place for him to channel his inner Barkov. The same might be said of McDavid, especially as they were both being limited as scoring threats 5v5.
Again, nicely done, throwing light on a number of questions for the Oilers, based on that one play. Almost poetic in its simplicity.
Well Hofer and Gibson are off the table. Personally, I don’t think either would have been an upgrade.
The dream would be Sorokin…. Prospect, pick and a player? Akey, 2027 1st and Arvy? Haha
Maybe throw in a 2nd rounder… that always helps….
Since LT didn’t publish his list this year, we shall have to settle for Bob McKenzie’s list instead for the highest-ranked players remaining:
#25 – Malcolm Spence (LW – Erie)
#26 – Milton Gastrin (C – MoDo)
#28 – Blake Fiddler (D – Edmonton)
#30 – Eric Nilson (C – Djurgardens)
#33 – Jack Murtagh (LW – US NTDP)
#35 – Alexander Zharovksy (RW – Ufa)
#36 – Daniil Prokhorov (RW – St. Petersburg)
#37 – Cole McKinney (C – US NTDP)
#38 – Jakob Ihs-Wozniak (RW – Lulea)
#40 – Will Moore (C- US NTDP)
#41 – Ivan Ryabkin (LW – Muskegon)
#42 – Haoxi (Simon) Wang (D – Oshawa)
#43 – Eddie Genborg (LW – Linkoping)
#44 – Max Psenicka (D – Portland)
#45 – Jack Ivankovic (G – Brampton)
#47 – Cameron Schmidt (RW – Vancouver)
#48 – Shane Vansaghi (RW – Michigan State)
#49 – Jacob Rombach (D – Lincoln)
#50 – Matthew Gard (C – Red Deer)
Even with the Oilers picking at #83, it’s possible a couple of these players will be available.
I want the Psenicka pick to be announced by the mayor of Vegreville.
#51 – Carter Amico (D – US NTDP)
#52 – Tyler Hopkins (C – Kingston)
#53 – Ethan Czata (C – Niagara)
#54 – Nathan Behm (RW – Kamloops)
#55 – Kurban Limatov (D – Moskva)
#56 – Peyton Kettles (D – Swift Current)
#57 – Semyon Frolov (G – Moskva)
#59 – Alexei Medvedev (G – London)
#60 – Conrad Fondrk (LW – US NTDP)
Medvedev would give the Oilers a troika of prospects on that Knights squad.
To those that don’t like the 84 game schedule:
To accommodate this increase, training camp will be shortened from 21 days to 13 — 18 for rookies — with one day off during the first week. Each team will be limited to four exhibition games, and players with 100 or more career NHL games (including games dressed for goaltenders) will be capped at two exhibition games.
The current idea is to start the regular season in late September and have the Stanley Cup awarded by June 21, according to league sources. The two extra games added in the regular season will be divisional games.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6457760/2025/06/27/nhl-cba-provisions-schedule-ltir/
32 Thoughts Friedman summary on Edmonton June 27th, (starts 30:13)
Like last season, I presume Perry will want easily attainable games played bonuses – which, for a cap team, is really just deferring to the next season as they will vest and create an overage (likely).
Real production targets would work but I think Perry wants his money all but guaranteed.
Deleting Kane due to cap is one thing. Deleting Kane, Perry and Brown is another. One can see the logic of each of those choices in isolation. But in aggregate the hole left to fill is very large.
Perry or Brown will probably be back with lower demands once they see what kind of other offers are out there
I thought good teams are supposed to have players lining up for discount deals (or at least competitive deals) to compete for the Stanley?
Oilers are back to back and we can’t get value deals?
Travesty! Humbug!
For those comparing Frederic to Hyman, here are their stats for the 2 years prior to being signed:
Hyman: 0.38 G/GP, 0.74 P/GP
Frederic: 0.19 G/GP, 0.39 P/GP
Different zip code.
Hyman 6.75% of the cap at signing, Frederic 4% of the cap at signing. And all the GM’s knew in 2021 the cap would be flat or rise minimally for at least 3 seasons. Today all GM’s know that the cap is set to rise by over 25% the next 3 seasons. In year 3 of Hyman’s deal his contract still took up 6.6% of the cap. By year 3 of Frederic’s deal he will only take up 3.4% of the cap or about half of Hyman’s. Different zip code indeed.
Is that the rationale to locking up a 3rd liner for 8 years?
I still don’t see it
No. I said in a response below, it seems long to me. I was pointing out some criteria strictly for the $ amount. It may end up being too much, that is always a risk in any contract. Unlike some though, just because Bowman and etal make decisions I may not agree with, I don’t assume they’re just bumbling idiots. They may have info that provides support for their decision making that we are not aware of. They make mistakes in judgement or sometimes, they bet decent odds, but still lose the bet.
Fair points for sure. And I wasn’t questioning you or your post.
And while I think Bowman is a fairly average-to-mediocre GM and rose through the ranks due to nepotism (much of the NHL is like this of course), you are right – he is making judgement decisions with info that most of us average fans do not.
Pens draft Son of Horc at #24.
Signing Dumba and Lyabushkin in free agency, only to likely be forced to buy them out a year later is certainly deserving of the GM of the year.
Right. It’s just a popularity contest voted on by fellow GM’s. Didn’t he win last year too?
And the year prior. Has won three in a row.
This draft is going to be longer than the effing Oscars.
Glad I didn’t tune into it this year.
I’d be ok with giving Klim Kostin a PTO if available for that sort of thing. As well Tanner Jeannot might get a new lease on life in Edmonton. Brock Boeser as a RW for Leon and get Joel Hofer the goalie out of St. Louis.
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Leon-Boeser
Jeannot / Henrique-Frederic-Savoie
Janmark-Philp-Kostin / Perry
Kulak-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Ekholm-Emberson/ Stecher
Skinner & Hofer
Is Hofer a revenge offer-sheet? Because StL is better managed and are prepared to match.
Are they? How do you know? Would it not be worth a try?
I could get on board with that forward group.
Where are you getting the money for Boeser?
I think Kostin & Jeannot would be league minimum. Arvidsson’s $4M off the books, Perry needs to sign for $1M. I think it should fit under the cap that’s up to $95,5M. It might be close if they need to pay Boeser more than $8M. Bouchard at $10M. I really haven’t done the math. Have you?
Perry at $1MM seems impossible – he’ll get over $2MM and term on the open market. He may sign for a bit less with the Oilers but I don’t imagine the base is less than $1.5MM with easily attainable bonuses.
I want him back on last year’s contract but not this year’s coming year contract. He’s 40 already, its not reasonable to think he’ll come close to 19G or 10 playoff goals again.
Caveat: I also didn’t like his contract when he signed a year ago.
The virtual team management room is giving me serious Krypton Council vibes.
Interesting
Looks like Philly traded down the puck they acquired from us on last years draft
Meanwhile, this #12 pick has been traded twice this week.
And that pick (#31) now goes to LA.
Great organizations pay for what players are.
Lesser organizations pay for what they hope players could be.
Even if he’s the best thing since sliced bread – awful deal. The money, the term, and a freaking NMC too? Absurd.
Dobson?
Frederic of course.
The Sabres, along with the Goo Goo Dolls who announced the pick, were glad that Mrtka was able to “slide” to them.
Bouchard might be the only player I have consistently evaluated based on a future contract. I’m sorry, Evan. You are too unique. It’s my fault, really.
Therefore with the Bouchard qualification squared away, I will wait to see if Frederic (or as our household called him during the playoffs, “Frent”) can play up to this contract before get too too upset. From many hours of What Chaos! watching, I know those Bruins boys really loved him in Boston. I think he can be a contributor. He’s signed. Let’s see.
I think comparing the Hyman deal to the Frederic deal is a little odd since we actually got to see Frederic play for us in the playoffs and he was healthy-scratch-worthy, imo. (I know, I know, the injury, but I just didn’t see the potential – it wasn’t just the ankle/skating) I think there would have been a LOT more stress about Hyman if that had just happened prior to his signing. I was excited to get Hyman at the time, but a little worried about the term. That said, at the time I thought he looked like exactly what the team needed in the short term and he has delivered FAR beyond anyone’s expectations.
I really really hope that I am wrong about Frederic, but I am Bookje’ing this now – I think this contract is terrible and completely unnecessary. I don’t see it working out long term. It’s a head-scratcher. That all said, it’s not like it’s a crazy % of the cap like the Lucic deal or whatever. But it seems like somehow the player had the leverage in the negotiation? Just seems odd. Just get guys on 1-2 year deals for that role and see how they do. More Podkolzin deals, please. Let them prove they are a fit with the Oilers and then pay accordingly. I dunno. Like I said, I hope I am wrong!!
I don’t think it’s fair to evaluate Frederic based on his time with the Oilers. He was injured the entire time.
He played poorly pre-injury this year with Boston.
All of Boston fell off a cliff this past year. Father time came a calling and the whole roster suffered the collateral damage.
That’s fine, but has nothing to do with the context I was replying to.
At the time of signing, Hyman has 86 goals and 185 points in his career. Contrast that to Frederic’s 55 goals and 109 career points. Their GP wasn’t all that different, 338 for Frederic and 345 for Hyman.
Great day for the people of Monctoon. 😂
Good thing then that the CHL doesn’t have a team in Tuktoyaktuk.
Man, whoever thought it was a great idea to give Bettman more screen time should start polishing up their resume.
This whole draft presentation just seems really gimmicky. Now get off my lawn!
Good functional formats are all alike. Every dysfunctional format is dysfunctional in its own way.
I hated the old format. I hate this new format.
The cap keeps going up and up under Bettman who’s taking full credit for it.
Bennett 8×8, knew that was going to happen. Man I hate the Panthers!! Hopefully they can’t afford March and Ekblad, but wouldn’t surprise me if they both took $4-5M to say.
Meanwhile in Edmt we’re giving 3rd/4th LW $3.85M x 8.
This team will only go as far as McD, Drai, and Bouch can drag them with 4th liners and rookies playing in the top 6.
It appears that he wasn’t swayed by Calgary’s $30 MM AAV offer.
I don’t hate many people with a passion, but Bennett is one of them.
Please Oilers, let’s sign Klim Kostin to a min dollar contract and have his only mission next final to be ensure Bennett doesn’t make it to Game 2 of the Finals.
Not saying to injure Bennett, just accidentally on purpose ‘Bennett’ him.
Bennett is likely to be on Canada’s Olympic team. You would love him if he were an Oiler.
He seems like a prick, and I don’t like pricks.
he will never be an Oiler, so I am secure in my hatred for him.
As for playing for Team Canada, meh.
Yes, but he isn’t. 😉
He is. RAT is worse
I will admit I “cheer” for every guy wearing oilers silks.
I would never love bennett. He is a POS. Coward. He has no honor. I get that the game has always had some of those players.
I am a bit old school. Get rid of the instigator and let someone break his face when he elbows your goaltender… bennett is a coward. He isnt tough. He isnt gritty. He is the guy that stabs you in the back but would never have a face to face fight.
He and marchand do not deserve to be in the game. Same as players in the past like “mr knee on knee” Bryan Marchment or “step on your Achilles matt cooke”.. ending players careers they are not half as skilled as…
#endrant
Yet he fought a guy above his weight class in the Four Nations in Brady Tkachuk.
Yes, and I loved him on Team Canada in 4 Nations, especially when he fought Brady Tkachuk.
I hate him on the Panthers.
Same is true of Marchand.
Such is the mercenary nature of cheering for laundry.
Thankfully, I get to hate Matt Tkachuk consistently.
I would intentionally injure him. He has intentionally injured a number of players and got away with it without any discipline. He even sucker punched the RAT and gave him a concussion; the replay showed he did it and it was intentional. Don’t need him in the game; prefer to watch skilled hockey and see what good players can do, not what shittier players can get away with. Florida was the better team because they were allowed to do what they want as much as they wanted while not getting penalized any more. There is a reason Bennett is a 50 point player in season but much better in the playoffs because he has carte blanche in the playoffs.
You’re probably the same guy who complained about Foegle’s contract, then complained when we let him walk. There is no good that any GM can do i guess…Maybe give the guy 10 seconds to be an oiler (uninjured), before you look to run him out of town.
Marchand has been badly underpaid for his last two deals. Both times, he signed an extension, only to hit a new level that following season. (A little like MacKinnon.) This time, he badly wants to be paid market (or more than market) value.
I don’t know where others sit in this matter, but I’m just going to come out and say it: Oilers’ beat writer Daniel Nugent-Bowman is just too much of a homer writer for me to take seriously. I’ve been noticing this for a while now, not to say he isn’t a good writer, but he often sugarcoats the hell out of his pieces, versus applying journalistic critical thinking and writing.
Case and point: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6453930/2025/06/27/oilers-trent-frederic-contract-hyman-lucic/
Totally sugarcoats the Frederic signing and mistakingly notes he could be a PK driver, and neglects to make league-wide comparisons to the contract.
Still love me some Mr.Mitchell writing at The Athletic, but DNB needs some razor blades in his typewriter IMO.
So we accuse media of running players out of town, but when they don’t they’re too much of a homer?
Where at all did I say anything about “running him our of town.” You can write a balanced piece without taking an axe to someone.
Read the blogs, commentary here, lots of good qual and quant arguments against the signing, term and amount, nothing against the fellow. Note that DNB doesn’t really pick up on any of that.
Job of a journalist is to present multiple perspectives on an issue, for/against, and look far and wide for context (not just cherry picking two EDM contracts).
Sports writers aren’t really “journalists” and the they have fluff a bit to keep access.
That’s kinda why someone like Rick Westhead has a job. To do that actual journalism when the time comes for it.
I want to say Kane will “look good in Canucks’ threads” but with four primary uniform concepts, it will take a man of immense stylistic adaptability, perhaps even beyond Evander, to actually pull that off.
How can a city full of designers consistently put together terrible uniforms for its hockey team?
Even more ironically, the Abbotsford Canucks have great unis – far better than any version of Vancouver’s.
The way Stauffer was talking the last couple days, there’s something big a brew. Gregor just brought up Sorokin now they moved Dobson. I ponder the cost 27 1st, Skinner, 26 2nd, Akey?
The Skinner experiment is finally nearing its end
Big contract
If they are going to take on a big contract like that, they way forward requires moving out Nurse. So, in that respect the crazy rumours make sense.
Agreed but if you move out Nurse who replaces his minutes. Perhaps more importantly, who takes Nurse’s contract without someone retaining salary?
If NY Islanders can get two first round picks 16 and 17 plus a warm body Emil Heineman for Dobson then what could Bouchard fetch?
Ideally Bouchard would fetch an 8x $10MM contract from the Oilers so he’s in Edmonton for the entirety of his prime.
The Freddy contract is just horrendous. Who were the Oilers bidding against?
Please provide me some examples of 8 year contracts for a 3rd/4th liner that aged well?
Hell people are already talking about the contract being buyout friendly as if that makes the signing better.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
For the record, Freddy has never spent a significant amount of time on the PK and has not been a regular at centre (despite playing on two teams that had mediocre centre depth).
hes going on mcdavids wing lol
Don’t lol in your comment! Many posters talk about finding another Maroon for McDavid’s wing! Dare to dream.
i think its funny that he could be a great find and he could actually be productive and beat the contract
— I always remember the observation I heard in an interview with a basketball GM who smartly pointed out that he hated trading for players on expiring contracts because that player has you “by the balls” as they know that you gave up a lot for them and will be the highest bidder to keep them
— That’s what this deal is.
— How many 27 year old 3rd liners sign 8 year contracts. Asking for a friend …
he better be parked on Draisaitls wing for that money
I don’t hate the Frederic deal, but we also keep hearing about how players want to play for winning teams and McDavid/Drai and will take discount contracts to do so, this isn’t that.
The Avs already moving on from Mr. Coyle
Im sure I remember someone on here boasting about the Avs unparalleled centre depth, but I could be wrong.
With Dobson signing in Montreal for 8 x $9.5 million, what does this do for the Bouchard negotiations? Are we looking at a similar scenario that happened when Holland gave Nurse way too much but based on the Seth Jones signing?
Bouch >> Dobson. Was hoping that Bowman could get this done for less than 8 figures per year though that is not looking good now!
I linked a piece from ON which breaks the Fred deal down. Also his offense is better than often said shown there
1-4 full nmc
5-6 a list
7-8 longer list
The cap hit will be little as the cap jumps. The contract is structured so it can be bought out without too much pain
https://oilersnation.com/news/eight-year-contract-edmonton-oilers-trent-frederic-isnt-risky
We haven’t seen work like this in a long time. Also Dobson 8×9.5, maybe Bouch won’t be so costly
I don’t think the scoring rates contradict anything being said here – they are 3rd line rates.
How many 3rd liners are signing 8 year contracts with full NMC for the first 4 years?
Ok, so the Frederic contract isn’t risky. But – is it necessary?
many fans still wonder why the amount and term would be given to a player who hasn’t shown any real abilities to be a key piece to this team’s success.
Zach Hyman was given 7 times $5.5 million with a recent injury history and a career highs of 21 goals and 41 points. Not saying Frederick can replicate Hyman but he doesn’t have to for this to work out.
Hyman’s deal at signing was 6.75% of the cap and Frederick’s is 4% so a full tier below. And so far Hyman’s contributions have significantly exceeded his cap cost.
If Frederic plays on the 3rd line, gets 30-40 points per season, while winning the goal share, plays some center and some pk ( he did both at times in Boston) he can cover the bet.
8 years seems long to me but at $3.85 million he is being paid below league average. (Also on average to get to the cap with a full 23 man roster, the average contract would be $4.2 million). By the time the season starts, there will be well over 300 players with NHL contracts being paid more than him. That is what bonafide 3rd line players age 25 and older get paid.
Frederic will not be put in a position to succeed like Hyman, ie not top line minutes and PP.
the problem with looking at average contract rates, is the Oilers have a large handful of contracts that are extremely large, requiring smart, less than average contract for the remainder of the roster.
This PK narrative has to stop. He was never a primary or secondary or even tertiary PK guy in Boston. He averaged about 30 seconds of PK per game during his time in Boston.
Why does it have to stop? First, I said if. Second, I said he only played some PK with the Bruins.
While he might have been the 6th or 7th option on the Bruins, he still played consistently over 3 seasons at the 30 seconds game in and game out and did reasonably well in his 150 minutes in total time that’s not nothing.
The Bruins have had the 2nd best PK in the league over the last 5 seasons so maybe he was normally the 7th best option among a really good group of PK’ers. The Oilers need someone to step up up help this team get more consistent at it.
This won’t stop till we see what Knoblauch and his staff role out for their pk in October. Not like anyone on here watched a pile of Bruins games and paid attention to how Frederick did when he pk’d to have a clue what his pk potential is.
No, you claimed that “he did both (played center and PK) at times in Boston” which is patently false. He was never one of their regular PK or center options.
Stop lying to support the company narrative.
Knoblauch had 20+ games with Frederic and didn’t play him on the PK or at center either.
How is it patently false? I wasn’t saying he was a regular in the pk or at center, I said he did it at times. 150 minutes over 3 seasons is at times. So is taking 500 faceoffs in the last 2 seasons. You don’t take that many when your center gets tossed.
And what narrative? Again I said if. You need to calm down and not scream liar when someone points out facts.
With Fred signed, Brown seemingly going to test free agency, and Arvi still a likely trade candidate the line up/cap looks like this:
RNH McD Hyman
Podz Drai Savoie
Fred Hen X
Jan X X
Ek Bouch
Nurse Wal
Kulak Emb
Stech
Stu
Pic
With $8.3M left for 3RW, 4C, 4RW and 13F. Still think 2nd line needs upgrading. PK will also need to be addressed. Of course goaltending but wouldn’t be surprised if that gets pushed to the deadline due to optionality.
Hard to say what they will do, reported interest in Perry. They have 2 RS C already in house in Philp and Tomasek who at 29 the Oilers and he must think he can crack the roster. If Philp isn’t ready now he never will be, many thought he was last season, Gregor wrote he’ll be qualified. And then there’s Kapanen lurking around
I think Henri should play wing at this point and let a faster younger guy do the extra skating, he seems to tire which isn’t surprising
If Bowman is recreating his Hawks success, I didn’t think he’d prioritize finding Bickell shaped men to fill the Bickell shaped holes.
Eight years seems like a long time and $3.85 seems like a high number. Seems needlessly risky. Oh well, hopefully Hyman can teach him how to play his best hockey in his 30s.
On Frederic, term and price seem high based on his career to date. My hope is that Bowman’s evaluation of Frederic’s talent (not his injury marred season) is as spot on is it seems to have been for Walman. It seems possible that there may be a lot more to Frederic than meets the eye test so far, and if he can contribute the way Walman did, it could be a good signing for at least the next 3-4 years.
99 career points 9 years after being drafted warrants an 8 year deal at $4M per? Please share your comps.
After the two season ending in 2024, 26 year old Trent Fredric had scored 35 goals and 71 points. He was +37, a 220 pound wrecking ball with hands.
If you told me the Oilers would have this guy signed long term for under $4M, I’d have said it cost Holloway or Broberg to land him.
There is certainly risk, but there is tremendous upside.
Cherry picking 2 years out of 9 post draft years seems reasonable.
Is the hold up with Frederic his asking price?
I think he can contribute to this line up but he sure didn’t help his case not being able to score a goal. Hes steady and plays smart, few points. How much is this worth?
We need change. Oilers, please be right with a reasonable contract.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/oilers-to-finalize-long-term-extension-for-trent-frederic/
When taking a step back, it is obvious that the Oilers missing piece is a top RS defenseman. As many of us do I been picking apart every NHL roster and the name that I keep going back to is Erik Karlsson, but I’ve thought Karlsson to be the ideal target (other than his salary) since his last season in Cali. It is clear that the focus on D is puck movement, there are very few that do this as well as EK. Question is, would Doc be interested? No doubt Dubas would be and he knows the player well.
Not easy to pull off, but if I had the steering wheel, I’d push hard for Darnell Nurse + Arvidson for Karlsson with $2.5 million retained (the Pens have lots of cap space and the have a gaping hole in their top pair, Letang would be an excellent partner for Darnell) + Tomasino + a 3rd (Pitt has 3) + a 5th (Pitt has 2). The picks are in consideration of Nurse having 5 yrs left.
I would also be looking at acquiring Pageau, using Henrique as the main piece. Something like Pageau + Engvall ($500 K retained) + Bolduc (6’4” LD, who needs a 2nd opinion). For Henrique + Janmark + rights to Muzenberger + 2026 2nd + Grubbe.
Money in = $16.25 million, with Tomasino signed 2 x $1.25 million Money out = $17.7 million
RNH – 97 – Hyman
Podz – 29 – Savoie
Fred – Pageau – Tomasek
Engvall – Philp – Tomasino
Eck – Bouch
Walman – EK
Kulak – Ember/Stech/Regula
Dineen
Goaltending – TBA
Most will hate the Engvall addition, but he scores more than Janmark, is fast, PKs and is 6’5”. If he plays 7-10 minutes per game, will he hurt you, or help you?
Is that improving the roster?
There is a focus here on addition by subtraction.
Engvall definitely gums up the works on this roster, but Pageau is a top 3C and a RHS to boot. Finding a low-cost offensive solution on LW2 would drastically improve the roster, but there simply is not enough Cap space.
Who are better fits? Drouin? Mantha?
For me it’s all about style. For anyone above replacement level (under 1M 4th liners that can lose jobs to the farm team anytime) most regular NHLers are pretty similar in what they can do overall, not the couple of crazy plays most NHLers will make in season
It’s how they do it for me. The 80’s Oilers and best teams now are my template. The 80’s Oilers because I think they were similar in their best players then as the team is now, missing a few support guys still sadly. Best teams now because they won, two of them twice, and also we have to beat them
Why is Janmark better in playoffs than reg season? Why did Pod have such a great run? Why is Bennett a 60 pt player reg season and Con Smythe winner in playoffs? It’s their attitude and how they play. Speed, assertiveness, toughness, game sense, play the details
That’s my template, when the going is tough that produces and wins the goal share. For goalies they need to not give up much easy and need to stop some they shouldn’t, especially when it counts most. Gregor had a fellow on the other day don’t recall who, he said he doesn’t like the word ‘talent’, he uses ‘ability’. Which I like as well, the manifestation of talent
I’m not referring to Moar Biggar, but ‘harder’ players I suppose. That can give back what the other team is dishing because it’s within their game, they mentally and physically can handle it, and they know how to do it without drawing eyeballs with whistles onto themselves. Trying to goon it up when it’s not there normally hasn’t worked so far
As a group they need to be more aggressive by nature, as last season they fell into lulls and took a while to get engaged. Need a whack in the chops so to speak to get into the fray. Bowman I think did refer to this indirectly when he said he likes a few new players every season, who are hungry for what the others experienced, going to the finals. Hungry being the operative word
The Habs getting Noah Dobson is le point finale on their expedient re-build.
That D Corps of:
Hutson – Dobson
Guhle – Matheson is 👌
Got a few young cost-controlled scorers up front. They’re going to overtake the Leafs in short order.
And the Habs keep Mailloux and Reinbacher.
That is going to be an A+ defense for a looooong time.
I was telling a Habs fan this AM that when a 25 YO RD is on the market you jump unless you have one of that calibre, because he already does what you hope the unestablished guys will. Same with a RC. If you end up with two and can carry the cap great, otherwise a very valuable trade chip
They should be a good jump better
8 X $9.5MM for Dobson and Bouchard is better offensively, defensively, on the PP and on the PK and elevates to best d-man in the NHL in the playoffs.
Would love to see a Bouchard 8x $10 or $10.5 following this Dobson deal.
When will this organization ever learn? Kassian 4 x $3.2, Lucic 7 x $6, Nurse 8 x $9.25 and now Frederic. I could add Jack Campbell, but at least that contract had an outside chance of working out on the day it was signed, IMO.
Also how did we go from 7 x $3.15 to 8 x $3.85?
I feel sick.
Where did you hear 7 x 3.15?
Capwages has had 3.85 x 8 years up on their site for a week now.
I think it might have been Stauffer and/or other local media that first mentioned $22 mln over 7 year before the news about $3.5 to $4 mln x 8 years surfaced.
I’m easily the most pessimistic poster on this board, but even I don’t understand how we went from back to back finals appearances to what seems like panic inside the organization and McDavid potentially signing for only 2-3 years…
I don’t believe there’s panic inside the organization. It’s more let’s make sure that the Edmonton Oilers get back to that SCF with whoever that may be. I think they want to build a team that will beat the Florida Panthers in that final.
What panic?
I’m not panicked and I don’t think management is either.
McDavid only signing for 2-3 is a vast exaggeration of the speculation that it may be shorter than 8 (around 5 is what’s out there).
Nothing has happened that indicates panic.
Great to see Frederic sign here. I respect everyone gets their own opinion, I truly believe Freddy will win a lot of you over.
I’ve been begging for this player type for years. Next up Kostin. Don’t let LA get him!
Klim Kostin is an interesting name to consider, he’s now UFA and has fond memories in Edmonton.
My mistake he’s RFA but if the Sharks don’t give him a qualifying offer, then he’s obviously UFA.
He was clearly targeted given the price paid. It’s like the org is weighting Frederick’s value based on pre-acquisition scouting or even pre-2025 scouting. Wonder if Bowman had his eyes on Frederic from the Blackhawk days.
Kostin may need a PTO given he’s only been an NHL player for a short stint in Edmonton – not before and not since he left.
I love him as a minimum salary bet. If he can’t cut it then off to Bake where they definitely need reinforcements. If he works out as a 4th liner then grand.
I really liked Frederic in Boston and thought he would be perfect for playoff hockey. I instantly thought Patty Maroon 20 goal crash and bang scorer who plays up and down the line-up. I could see a 4-5 year contract but a 8 year deal is puzzling. I do think he gets a nice push and will be a 20 goal scorer the next few years.
I was hoping he didn’t have trade protection, but I guess that’s pretty much standard these days.
If you can’t see this player as a candidate for Robidas Island years 6-7-8 your not paying attention on how the long game is played.
Planning on being on LTIR in the future is not a good plan.
If Frederic does his job properly for the next 5 years I can’t see much in the tank beyond that.
A good D elevates his partners, whoever those partners happen to be. A bad D drags down those same partners. With Nurse, we’re at the point that our former 1D from a few years ago drags most other D men down, plays poorly when the stakes rise in the playoffs, makes too many mistakes, and seems more likely to get worse rather than better in the years to come. His performance in the playoffs this year was very disheartening. No injuries that I’ve heard about and he was meh at best, a big liability at worst.
If u have a chance to move on from a guy you can’t trust in the playoffs and can only make it work with 7D Troy Stecher for $9.25 MM you do it. Oil would have to retain some salary I think and find a dumb GM, and get Nurse to wave.
I remember making a critical post of Nurse around G1 of the SCF, talking about Nurse as a scratch option. The post was deleted for some reason. Now look at where the verbal is going.
I’m sure you can move Nurse it’s just the return won’t be great, like Kane but more
Nurse with $2m return has value, 4th-round draft pick value.
Some GM always wants players like Nurse. They often don’t seem to notice or care about issues. How did Dave Savard stay around for so long? Bcs big and tough and ‘seen’ as a good defender
The issue would probably be if a team Nurse would go to liked him and had the cap
LOL throw Nurse in as a sweetener with Arvidsson. Clear up some cap space.
With respect, you can’t be sure with a player that has a pure veto (and zero indication he would have any interest in leaving for multiple stated reasons).
You can’t know that he wouldn’t want to move either. I’m sure he enjoys being villainized for his contract daily.
I don’t know that he wouldn’t want to move and have always provided the opinion that I don’t think he would and base it on real facts.
Your post, on the other hand, says you are “sure they can move Nurse” – stated as a fact.
Nurse may be “vilified” by a portion of the fanbase but, not only can he generally avoid that, I’m confident he’s not vilified by his teammates nor his coaching staff who all seem to value him immensely.
We know he’s very close with the elite core, some of which have already committed long term. We know his wife is close with their wives (was at Celeste’s stag in Greece). Mostly, we know he has been raising a young family in Edmonton and is a huge part of the community.
Its impossible for you to be sure that he can be moved but, given the facts, its hard to see how one can opine that is reasonable that he would be even a bit open to it – although that is an opinion that one can have.
The return matters less than the cap space does.
I remember everyone here going off the rails when we signed Hyman … the deal was seen as too much for too long, for a guy that had been oft injured to that point in his career was the common refrain.You don’t see anyone complaining about the deal now.
I trust that Bowman and the Oilers pro scouts have watched Frederic play more than any of you, and have a very good idea of what they are doing.
If you want a big tough player, which most teams do, Frederic is a better all round player than Kane, Kostin (can’t stick in the NHL) Kassian, Lucic and many others
If he plays top 6 wing he might spike in offense like Hyman has, his career high goals in TO was 21
I know nothing about Frederic, but was very pleasantly surprised in the few moments he played after arriving (during which he re-injured(?) himself. The player that emerged in the SCF, and that third line, looked promising. Like you, I have more faith in Bowman & co’s vision than what I read from fans and pundits. I am genuinely curious about how they deploy the talent they assemble. Let’s go Oilers!
ps. To your note about Hyman, he may have been the difference between a Cup win and a Game 6 fade this year. My question is, Would a healthy Frederic have been a factor in a Cup win? We shall see…
So a realistic best-case scenario I see for Frederic is Freddy Gaudreau, who hockey reference lists as one of the comparables for Frederic.
Gaudreau is 32 and has averaged 12-18-30 over 82 games throughout his career, peaking at 14-30-44 in 76 and 19-19-38 in 82 during his age 28 and 29 seasons. However, Gaudreau also plays center (which Frederic nominally has the ability to do, but every coach he’s played for over his career has played him primarily on the wing), and Gaudreau kills penalties. Gaudreau signed a $2.1×5 contract in 2023 heading into his age 30 season.
Even with the cap going up, the only way this contract doesn’t work out to being an overpay is if Frederic can put up a few 20 goal seasons AND maintain his effectiveness through his Age 34 seasons. So, do something he’s never done before TWICE and avoid injuries/regression as he gets older.
Oof.
Frederic is 27 and coming off of a 3x$2.3M contract with the Bruins. Not so sure Freddy Gaudreau is a realistic comparable.
I think if LA strikes out on Gavrikov then they may circle to Nurse? where theres smoke gotta be fire? Holland signed the deal
If they could do that and sign Gav it would be a big upgrade. Bowman would be a superstar to me
Accomplishing a “Nurse in, Gavrikov Out” move without any cap retention/paying draft picks would earn Stan the GM of the year award, even with the Frederic contract.
Nurse isn’t going anywhere until 2027
i dont think Nurse is moveable either unless a GM is desperate and Nurse is ready to move on from Edmonton
I’ve read that Gavrikov is already starting to slow down at the tender age of 29.
“For me, I don’t see the wisdom in trading Nurse when the top LH defenseman is 35 and was running on fumes last we saw him”
There’s almost no way Nurse gets moved. NTC, buyout-proof contract, cap hit and term are all going against that being a possibility.
But the reasoning for doing it is clear. We need cap space and his contract is significantly more than his play warrants and LD is the area we have the most depth on the roster. If you can (which you can’t) trade him, then you absolutely do it.
Emberson and Bouchard would be the only D under contract for the following year. But you STILL do it if you can.
There’s no way you can move nurse. But if you could you absolutely have to
I’m not so sure Ekholm, at this stage of his career can still be considered the top LHD on this Oilers team.
If it’s not Ekholm still, then it’s Walman. Nurse might be better than Kulak.
Kulak has been a better pair with Bouchard than Nurse. Ekholm is going into his final year with Edmonton, playing him alongside Emberson or Stecher or even Regula on the third pair might not be out of the realm of possibility. They actually have plenty of depth on the blueline next season.
Kulak-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Ekholm-Emberson/ Stecher
Leppanen-Regula (who could see NHL action)
The problem isn’t that Ek might not be capable of 1LD. It’s that neither is Nurse, and at 9.25M.
It’s not really a problem when they have the depth to deal with it. I think they still might just go with the top pairing of Nurse & Bouchard or continue with the top pair of Ekholm & Bouchard. Who knows they may even like the looks of Regula & Bouchard. Nurses contract is what it is but that’s OK.
Except they don’t have the depth to deal with it. If they did, then Nurse would be 1LD. So, ya, it’s a problem, or starting to be a problem.
Frederic it is!
Not being pessimistic but that’s a Peter Chiarelli levels stupid deal.
Nurse can be very effective with the right partner.
Unfortunately, that’s a unicorn, and Stetcher has been the best in the role.
Bowman said that they won’t tinker too much w/ the D.
I don’t buy the Nurse verbal.
And if you move him for a pick – then you got to replace him.
Who would that be?
An Ekholm / Walman / Kulak left side would be fine. If Nurse is traded you “replace” him with Nik Ehlers.
They’ve got 6 Dmen signed, plus Bouchard when they eventually sign him, probably 4x$10M. Not to mention Alex Regula & Atro Leppanen looking to factor in as well. Nurse isn’t going anywhere, of course now that I’ve said that they trade him. I’ll just say they might want to have a close look at Regula & Leppanen first.
I think Walman could easily fill Nurse’s shoes. That said, I can’t see him waiving to go anywhere. And even moreso, there’s no way they trade one of McDavid’s buddies before he’s signed.
Agreed. I don’t see losing Nurse, especially if another Walman type is in the deal coming back, as catastrophic.
If those two remaining brothers are serious about winning the Cup then they should endorse any trade that makes the team better, regardless of the friendships with teammates.
Especially when the track record is clear and the cap hit harmful. They can hang at the cottage all summer
Just FYI Brandon Saad is a UFA this summer. He and Bowman have a history, I wouldn’t be surprised if he came here on a fairly cheap deal. $2M x 2 or so.
Lukas Reichel, another Bowman guy, is available. I wonder if something around Victor Arvidsson could be worked out.
For me Saad is too old and slow and unproductive and Reichel too small, I hope not. They also need to make sure if they add at F the player has the jam to handle teams like the Panthers, the Oilers achilles heel
Saad isn’t speedy anymore but his burst numbers were similar to Connor Brown’s last year. Far, FAR better than Corey Perry’s – who was the Oilers best winger in the finals. His 5v5 P/60 was pretty much identical to Hyman’s, who was 4th best among Oilers forwards.
I think your analysis needs to go a bit farther.
I don’t like the P/60 stat because it’s misleading. The best players get the most TOI, that it makes Saad look like Hyman isn’t good. Saad had 2 assists in 8 games. I think P/GP is a truer look, 5v5 Saad .25 and Hyman .53. Perry was .18 so if I had to choose between them Saad is a better choice also being 8 years younger
I prefer players that are better natural skaters, I think they keep their levels up in playoffs better, heavier legged guys tire. I also think they take more time away when forechecking
To be clear, the stats I was looking at were regular season stats. I didn’t look at playoff numbers due to small sample size.
And I’m not arguing for a Saad signing, just that he’s out there, won’t be expensive and is a Bowman guy. I could see it happening.
Agreed
If Saad signs here it will be 7 years at $3.5m. Just using Frederic for comparable. Haha
I’d be surprised if he doesn’t re-sign in Vegas. Happy for them to double down on a blah transaction.