Harvest Moon 2025

by Lowetide

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BornInAGretzkyJersey

With Gulutzan’s anticipated departure I can’t help but think of a certain Todd Nelson for the vacancy.

Last edited 1 minute ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
Moonlight

Do we get a third for Dallas signing Gulutzan?

Gaz Gazzersson

EF tweeting that Gulutzan is likely next Stars head coach.

OriginalPouzar

Dreger saying he’s been offered the job.

Congrats to Gully – he’s been a good Oiler.

Primetime

Any love for Joe Valeno on the rebound? Decent size, great skater and scouting reports from junior were excellent defensive play at centre (forecheck/turning over pucks). Plus he’s only 25. I would love to offer him a contract to play 3/4C, learn from McDrai and chance at a Cup? Maybe he comes to the Marty Reasoner school of self awareness that the offence didn’t follow him to the show and he should capitalize on his other assets? Would rather him in that spot than Rico…leaves Nuge as top 6LW

Gaz Gazzersson

If not him, guys like him, Eyssimont, etc. if Brown, Perry, etc are out, gonna need affordable bottom 6ers.

OriginalPouzar

Lots of experts think Pracey and the Oilers did not do well but Curlock and Mitchel like the draft work and that is good enough for me!

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Honestly, how can you really have strong feelings about a team that doesn’t pick in rounds one and two.

Boil-in-the-Oil

I find it most interesting those experts didn’t provide any better, available alternative (that I could find) who they would have drafted instead. I kinda thought we did ok, considering our group of late picks… always looking for that truffle buried underground.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Honestly, signing McD and Bouchard to shorter deals might be good for the Oilers too.

I know this will be blasphemy to some, but it ensures the Cup window remains open for three more years and would give the Oilers the option to trade McD and/or Bouchard while they still have near peak value to refresh the roster.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Unfortunately, in the cap world you cannot be sentimental.

Yukon Jerk

Im not on board with trading either of these players while they are in their prime

Chelios is a Dinosaur

I think BR’US is suggesting that might not be the organization’s choice, so best position yourself.

Lucid Oil

McDavid is the one doing the positioning.

Yukon Jerk

The best position to be in is to build a team that can defend & forecheck like the Panthers did.
Add some help for Skinner & we’re cooking with gasoline as the kids say

Brantford Boy

So we have some new bullets in the chamber… sure LT would advise draft and follow… I think it’s reasonable these picks are sweeteners to move contracts… we’ll see.

OriginalPouzar

Lebrun advising that Perry wants to re-sign but contract terms are an issue given Edmonton’s cap situation.

We could see this coming. The man had 19 goals and 10 more in the playoffs and we simply cannot give him near market – we know it’s not reasonable to expect similar, or close to similar, production.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Players at his stage should be okay with a one year contract that’s fully buryable to have a chance to win a Cup one more time.

OriginalPouzar

Perry dug in for $375K over league min last season and games played performance bonuses – and he was coming off a poor season and an ineffective playoffs (I think he got hurt in the LA series).

I didn’t think there would be any way that Perry wouldn’t dig in for “market value” coming off 19G (plus 10).

I would think he would take a very low base with tangible performance bonuses (i.e. goals scored bonuses) but he likes his guaranteed money.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’d be willing to do something like ~$1MM/1-yr with some kind of tiered scoring and games played bonus, and playoff milestones. Something like, say (spitballing):

  • $250k for 20 goals in the regular season
  • $125k for 50/60/70/80 games played in the regular season
  • $125k to make the finals and play 50% of the games
  • $125k for 10 goals in the playoffs while being a +GF player and play 50% of the games

Could be looking at as much as $1MM in total bonuses.

The increases in cap will cover that handily, and if he earns those bonuses then he’s worth the money without limiting next year’s roster competitiveness.

Lewis Grant

I mean, he outperformed his contract this year by a good $2M. That kind of thing will make a player dig in.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

First things first.

The org went into the draft with a dearth of picks, and walked away having made a selection in 5/7 rounds.

That in and of itself is tidy work and should be commended.

This continues a trend of resourcefulness seen last year when they snagged SOR out of the blue.

Yukon Jerk

I don’t think i will ever understand why they wouldn’t just match the Dylan Holloway offer sheet.
How could you just let St.Louis pull your pants down like that?
Fools

Professor Q

Yeah it was a bit odd. But also it seemed like both were Shocked Pikachu about it and I blame his agent more than Holloway or Edmonton.

Especially when he came out and said that his agent assured him that Edmonton would match and there wasn’t anything to worry about. He didn’t want to leave, but his agent surely knew something was amiss with the double Offer Sheets.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’ve tried to assess this from several angles since last summer.

My guess is Bowman didn’t want another GM determining a not insignificant portion of his team’s salary cap structure.

In the end, he did relatively well with what he’d inherited.

bcoil

That is maybe why Holloway fired his agent

godot10

His previous agent hasn’t been able to expand his NHL client list. Perhaps that is why Holloway switched agents as he is entering an 13 month period were he is likely to negotiate a lengthy (5-8 year) $8 million dollarish AAV contract if he has a season similar to last year.

It is one thing to give a new agent a chance when one is signing an ELC or a smaller transitional deal. Holloway is in need of a full service agency now that he is likely going to be signing a contract significant in years and dollars.

OriginalPouzar

Well, think back 10 months and circumstances were different.

The timing of the offer sheet was a huge factor but, really, lets not forget what Holloway had accomplished at the time.

One could reasonably project his continued progression but, in the playoffs, he did have 7 points in 25 games.

He had less points in more games than Podz had this playoff season and, in those games, he played more with Drai than Podz did in these playoffs. Not to mention, Podz was more physical, more of a 2-way player and helped on the PK

No, I’m not saying Podz is better or anything like that – just throwing out the season that Holloway was coming off last year – another injury riddled season – showed some good things but not great things.

I mean, Podz was objectively superior to Holloway in their Oilers playoff stints.

godot10

Podkolzin was objectively not.

Lewis Grant

Nobody expected he was going to explode like that.

Have you seen his stats prior to this past year? i.e. when they had to make the decision?

OriginalPouzar

Friedman also said he doesn’t think the ideal of Boeser is wrong. Doesn’t see how we can fit it in and thinks Boeser could consider the Oilers.

Professor Q

What do you mean, sorry? It is hard to parse those sentences.

He thinks both sides would want it to work, but the feasibility isn’t there at this time?

The idea of a Boeser Type is what he’s lauding? He thinks that ideal player type is what they should look for?

OriginalPouzar

Friedman has hear the rumors that the Oilers could pursue Boeser and, in his words “doesn’t think the idea is wrong”. He thinks Boeser would consider the Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

Friedman also said they are considering a change in the goalie coach.

All the other coaches have expiring contracts – yesterday Bowman says they’ll likely be intel to provide on that in a week or so.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’m not against shuffling out coaches under Knoblauch and Coffey.

Some of those voices have been around since the DoD, time for a fresh perspective.

OriginalPouzar

I think Coffey is included.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

He said he didn’t know if he’d want to even join at all, so I wouldn’t have any issue if he wanted to excuse himself to his quiet life he’d been enjoying previous to this whirlwind.

But I wouldn’t be showing him the door in the name of change, either.

That would be Gulutzan and Schwartz for me. Possibly Stuart, but he’s got more rope in my mind.

Lucid Oil

Interesting sequencing to consider. If I was a high end goalie (eg: a Swayman) being asked to waive my trade protection to come to Edmonton I would want to know and be comfortable with the goalie coach.

OriginalPouzar

Is Swayman an “high end goalie”?

Swayman was objectively worse than Skinner last season in his first try as a true starter.

Yup, Swayman had three good years prior but not once was he a starter or even a 1A. He played 37, 41 and 44 games. The first time he was a true starter, he was near .890.

Skinner has a season of .910 (or was it .912?) in 58 games, something Swayman has never done.

Yes, straight up, I do think Swayman is the more valuable goalie but not $6MM more valuable – way too much risk to take that contract given his last season – on a team that was projected to be a lock for the playoffs and contend for the cup – he was part of the reason they were not that.

Lucid Oil

Completely fair comments on Swayman. I really wasn’t arguing for Swayman, it was just the first name that came to mind as I thought about the goalie coach decision.

Last edited 2 hours ago by Lucid Oil
Ryan

Agreed

With goalies, you want to follow the advice Ken Holland offered, but didn’t heed himself.

You can’t trust most goalies these days. The key is to minimize contract risk.

I like goalies under 30. I like goalies inexpensive and on shorter term contracts.

I’m a broken record, but Colorado generally does a good job with mitigating contract risk in net. Copy Colorado.

OriginalPouzar

This morning Friedman says there seemed to be a lot of confidence over the weekend they are going to got Bouchard done.

Threw out 4 X $9.5MM as numbers he’s heard.

$9.5MM would be an absolute steal – like massive.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

As blisteringly frustrated as I was with Bouchard at multiple points this season, I always held that it didn’t mean I hated the player, just that I didn’t feel he should get paid more than 10 million. If it means coming in at 4 years, I’ll still feel somewhat validated. And it would suggest to me that organization, player (and possibly important teammates) agree: Bouchard is an excellent defenceman, which is all the more reason to clean up his ill-timed gaffs, not a means of excusing his ill-timed gaffs. This Bouchardwashig has always been nonsensical to me.

Because the timing of the gaffs are consequential. Looking like about $2 million / season value. Now let’s imagine Bouchard without the ill-timed gaffs. Thats a $13 million defensman and he’ll have 4 years to get there.

OriginalPouzar

That defenceman you describe in the last paragraph is what we’ve seen in the playoffs the last two seasons (this season, after the first two games vs. LA and one off-game in the SCF, where I still opine his culpability is HIGHLY debatable).

Two seasons in a row almost inarguably the best overall d-man in the playoffs and, for his career, 100% inarguably, objectively, a historic producer of points.

SVR

Totally agree. Every player makes mistakes and one involved in the play as much as Bouchard is will make more of them. There is room for some decision making improvement, but you also have to consider all of the plays he makes that nobody else on this d core can make. I doubt any of our other defenders could have kept that puck in against Byfield in the first round that basically saved the season. I agree, 9.5 times 4 is a steal. Hoping they can convince him to sign for the full 8 year term. Give him the rumored 10 x 8 and move on to the McDavid contract

Chelios is a Dinosaur

“There is room for some decision making improvement”

Yes, the question is how much is that room worth? His defenders don’t want the player to ever pay for that gap. These are the same people who criticise Edmonton for paying players for their future, imagined contributions.

I guessed all year that I think its worth something, and only once he cleaned up his “decision making” could you argue he is truly more valuable than, say, Makar.

I would write on this blog that he shouldn’t get more than 10 million per year and I would be constantly downvoted. I’ll even get downvoted for this post, undoubtedly.

Now he’s about to sign for 9.5.

Last edited 38 minutes ago by Chelios is a Dinosaur
Chelios is a Dinosaur

But his culpability is clearly debatable within the organization, if Friedman’s tweet has any merit. Its almost as if this blog is the only place where his culpability is a third rail.

The Bobby Orr-level offence is also significantly fuelled by 29 and 97. It is not to disparage the player, but this number also reflects this truth.

The argument that he cleans it up in the playoffs is understood and largely correct, but you can also argue he, as much as anyone, cost Edmonton home ice due to several brain farts that led directly to giving up points in season. I shouldn’t need to go reference each instance, we all watched the season and tracked them as they happened. Given that the team was otherwise load managing, it must have been very frustrating to watch those points get sewered in such a manner.

And Game 6, you can debate it if you want, but he needed to be locked down better than that for 12 million. If he comes in at 9.5, I think its great.

And consider this: 97 said in his presser that Bouchard absolutely needed to get signed. This ought to have put all the leverage in Bouchard’s camp. For the rumoured number to come in much lower than many had assumed, I think it is fair to suggest that the fanbase and punditry calling for $11.5 or more are misaligned with both the organization and players’ view of his value.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The Bobby Orr-level offence is also significantly fuelled by 29 and 97. It is not to disparage the player, but this number also reflects this truth.

Please. Orr played with Esposito, Hodge and Cashman, etc. They were a dominant team with Hall of Fame players.

Bouchard’s outscoring rates increase when away from the Glimmer Twins.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

So why is he about to sign for 9.5?

If this contract is the one that gets signed, what do you attribute it to? The kindness of his heart? If thats the case, then why isn’t it for 8 years?

9.5/4 is a compromise more reflective of my analysis than most others. A player I like, by the way.

Tarkus

Harvest Moon posts are among my favorites.

McKenzie had Lafreniere (and Lewandowski) among his honourable mentions in his rankings–top 80 + 20 HM’s–so maybe just a slight reach. Certainly in the range at that stage of the draft.

(Incidentally, I miss watching McKenzie unerringly predict who each team would take right before their pick. It’s like he was making the selections for each team himself.)

6’3″ LHD Owen Conrad wasn’t drafted despite being ranked 43rd by Pronman and 61st by Wheeler. He wouldn’t be the worst player to whom the Oilers could extend a D-camp invitation.

2minutes4lookingsogood

We cannot really expect much with the picks we had.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Respectfully disagree.

It’s the job of the scouting staff to unearth gems each and every draft. We need a Kesselring, a Desharnais, a Marino, or even a McLeod to arrive beyond the first round like Swiss trains to the station.

If this team wants to make a habit of deep playoff runs, they’re going to be drafting from the cheap seats year over year.

Need to find value late, and often, in order to have tradeable assets as currency or internally develop cost controlled talent to agument the core.

€√¥£€^$

I think Lafrieniere has a chance. There is talent there and it is propelled by a very motivated mindset.

There is something to be said about an 8th round Bantam pick who gets drafted. In 2 years he will be bigger, faster and impressive.

Salonen is also impressive, next season will be informative, as he takes the next step in his career in Liiga.

All things considered, I like the approach taken by Pracey. Gone are the days of moar bigger coke machines and skating ability is a priority. This is a good thing!

SVR

Wow, hard to believe it’s been that long since any of the Oilers picks have made it. Even worse, there is really no one you could project to make it in the next two, maybe three years unless they can get Berezkin signed. Maybe Akey or O’Reilly?

Ryan

JP spent ten years of his life dedicated to refuting everything I ever posted. Anyone seen him lately?

He and I disagreed about Tyler Wright’s tenure. It left a hole in the talent pipeline.

I had looked back and attributed Wright to the failed Yzerplan.

€√¥£€^$

Drafted prospects with a chance in next 3 seasons:

1 – Rodrigue: he is a top AHL goaltender and still young. With 3 signed younger prospects, are they going to let him walk and bring a more seasoned vet AHL goaltender with NHL experience, or will they be rolling the dice? It seems very risky to take that approach. This would mean the #4 slot would be a 1st or 2nd year (Ungar) pro. That doesn’t make much sense to me, something has got to give.

2 – Berezkin: Maybe he signs for next season, maybe he gets traded, maybe he never comes to NA. There are no guarantees with this player, is he even good enough to make the NHL? His wheels are suspect, so chances are he never sees NHL ice.

3 – O’Reilly: Not this year, but perhaps next season as a rookie pro he gets a cup of coffee.

4 – Akey: This will be his first pro season, will he keep his head above water in the AHL? If he does, perhaps he gets a cup of coffee in his 2nd pro season.

5 – Petrov: This will be his 3rd pro season, tick tock, if he doesn’t show well this will be his last season in the organization. Hopefully, he impresses early on and does enough to earn a game or two, but highly unlikely.

6 – Clattenburg: Rookie pro, but has the size & speed and toughness. You never know, although he struggles with health and consistency. He likely won’t be ready for a cup of coffee for at least couple of seasons, He is totally a long shot, but has coveted “NHL intangibles”.

7/8 – Jonsson or Day: Absolute voodoo, no clue, but soonest possible arrival will likely be their 3rd pro year. That would most likely be due to injury, rather than performance, but you never know.

So, it is a painful truth that there is not much coming via drafted players. All of Savoie, Jarventie, Samanski, Carfagna, Marjala and even Grubbe certainly have far better chances for NHL deployment than any drafted prospect.

We wait………..we have no choice but to.

Last edited 2 hours ago by €√¥£€^$
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