Dickie Betts wrote “Jessica” and that’s a lifetime. Have you heard it? The Allman Brothers went dual everything—guitars, drums—and their sound echoes in my brain everyday. If you have an hour, listen to Jessica, Midnight Rider, Melissa, Blue Sky, Statesboro Blues, Soul Shine, Whipping Post. That’s probably more than an hour but what the hell. Like The Band and The Stones, there is a unique feel to the Allman Brothers Band, something in their sound you cannot find anywhere else. I recommend them every day for the rest of your life and then whatever comes after. Those southern boys sure can play the rock and roll.
The overring theme today, for me, is Stan Bowman’s first very big bet. There’s some risk here. It’s not just some rando draft pick none of us will really remember. Sam O’Reilly is a legit prospect, RH centre, with a world of promise. My initial thought on the deal? Looks like a fair one from here. Oilers add a plug-and-play, send over a player of equal ability with more utility. I think Bowman did a good deal.
For me, this is a key reason I love sports. We have a way to measure Bowman’s ability as a general manager. Miles to go on making the final call, but this trade is terrific in a way Ken Holland and Peter Chiarelli were unable to manage. This is more like a Glen Sather trade, for me, and I’ll monitor it as if we were talking Laurie Boschman for Willy Lindstrom. These are fun trades forever. Lots of opportunity, lots of risk.
Both players (Isaac Howard, Sam O’Reilly) seem destined for significant NHL careers, and the declaration of a winner won’t come for years.
Fans are already talking about Howard and Matt Savoie together in the top-six, but I think that might be a bridge too far, at least initially. Suspect one player emerges in camp and wins the day, while the other either plays a depth role or lands in Bakersfield with the Condors. To be clear, time in the AHL shouldn’t be considered a bad thing for any young prospect. However, that’s a boring angle to take on a day like this one, so let’s have some fun.
NHLE’s are no longer popular in these parts, honestly they never were but I like them fine. Matt Savoie’s NHL equivalency from 2024-25 was 82, 11-22-33; Howard’s NHLE was 82, 19-19-38. Howard is the goal scorer, Savoie more of a playmaker who can score, too.
If we are building the lines for opening night, I think we have to agree Kris Knoblauch is unlikely to run both players on the top two lines. It’s also true there are too many forwards at this time, so someone has to be included out. Here’s my first blush look at the possible lines:
- Mangiapane-McDavid-Hyman
- Howard-Draisiatl-Podkolzin
- Frederic-Nuge-Savoie
- Henrique-Lazar-Tomasek
- Janmark-Kapanen
I like this setup because you could switch the Draisaitl and Nuge wingers at a moment’s notice, and in this way maybe both rookies could get time in the top six next season. I wrote about both of them at The Athletic today (here) and hope you read it if you can.
Two quick items: The deal last night could set up another trade. There is an excess now, and Bowman could wheel again. Second, the Hyman injury would most certainly have cover if he isn’t ready for opening night.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll chat about the trade, possible follow-up trades and more. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440.
Could Isaac Howard or Matt Savoie break Edmonton Oilers’ Calder Trophy curse?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6480488/2025/07/09/oilers-isaac-howard-matt-savoie-calder-trophy/
I personally still have Savoie as the “higher prospect” and potentially more impactful player this season.
Lets not forget, Savoie has top 10 pick pedigree, as oppossed to Howard’s 31st overall pick pedigree – of course, that is neither here nor there right now but it speaks to highly rated Savoie was on draft day.
Now, I watched about 50 Condors’ games last year and Savoie’s progression through the season was special – in particular given how decimated the Condors were as the year went on with injuries, trades out, call-ups, personal leaves and players simply not reporting.
As a player that isn’t necessarily a driver and excels playing with a skilled center, his progression as the clear top player on the Condors was impressing and, lets not forget, a high end 2-way player that was on the PK from day 1 of the regular season. His defensive game became advanced in the AHL and his board work quite impressive – he uses his stature to his advantage in certain ways.
What I’m saying is that, in my opinion, Savoie is 100% NHL ready and I truly think he is top 6 ready and I’ve long opined that his skill-set is perfect for Drai (he’s great playing with smart skill – great in the give and go game, great at find soft ice for his plus shot, good board work, tenacious, plus defensively, full effort). He also has a 3RW skill-set but, ultimately, I see him on Drai’s wing for a decade.
Now, this isn’t to say that Howard cannot also be immediately impactful but I just haven’t got the eyes on him. I listed to a TBL insider on EST this morning and the intel was very heartening – I guess Howard did exactly as the franchise asked in the last two years – put on real muscle, greatly improved his “away from the puck game”, etc.
A few things the separate the players today that I think is meaningful for this season:
1) Savoie has a full season of pro hockey – that matters
2) Savoie is coming from the CHL and then a full season in the AHL playing 70 (ish) games. Howard is coming from the NCAA and a 37 (apx) game schedule – perhaps his minutes need to be managed in that regard as the grind of pro hockey takes over?
GM just traded for Howard, suspect he gets the initial push.
No way they trade the sure fire O’Reilly unless they believe he’s more than ready. It is definitely Howard’s job to lose. This team needs a cocky kid to breathe some life into regular season Connor and Leon.
You are probably right although, of note, the GM’s boss traded for Savoie last season (and the player he traded away just signed for $5MM per….).
Well he’s actively trying to undo his work
It’s fairly rare to have all ‘top 9’ forwards healthy at once, and lines are always fluid, so I suspect there is lots of opportunities for both players. And the regular season is the time to break them into the NHL and develop them as long term assets.
Is a very good comment, not sure what there is here for anyone to be critical of.
I tend to agree. Savoie has been around the club longer. Familiarity should definitely factor in. For me I see a great fit for both youngster in the top nine,
Mangiapane-Mcdavid-Hyman
Podz-Leon-Savoie
Ike-Nuge-Frederic
Henrique-Lazar/Philp-Kapanen/Tomasek
Janmark might be the odd man out. Cap space is valuable.
When I read that article I started to wonder why you hated Jason Arnott and his Kurri rookie goal team record breaking season, but then remembered Martin Brodeur won the Calder in 1994 so it’s hard to credibly argue he was robbed.
Having said that, the league has always and continues to hate us. They hate us because we are beautiful.
agreed. I was going to list Arnott, but felt the Nuge fuckery was worse.
Man, as a fanbase, we really could have used that Calder at that time! It was probably as deep a hole as I remember us being in.
Not only do we break the Gretzky Calder Cup theft. We finish 1-2 in voting 1) Howard 2) Savoie.
The first rule of Fight Club…IMHO, anyways.
I think this is a pretty good estimate of how KK will deploy lines once Hyman is back (if he is out opening night). However, I was talking with a friend if giving Howard/Savoie easier minutes at first might be the smarter play. Let Nuge be the “Horcoff” to Howard/Savoie’s “Hall and Eberle” (except not over-casting them as the first line). Something like:
88-97-18
21-29-92
53-93-22
13-19-Tomasek/42/Lazar
I don’t think this is a likely opening night roster, and it does expect a lot out of 88/21/92 (and other winger if 18 is out opening night). However, if 97 and 29 can do enough to keep those two lines above water, I have to think that 3rd line would be able to outscore the opposition, even with some rookie mistakes.
Not sure if this would be my preferred deployment but I’d like to see it at least once!
Each indvividual has unique fetal cell constructed brain network (Solar harmonic affected fetal const 78’) unique brain wave 3d feild recognitiin, but Bio evo Hunt mechanism drives us to hit the body.
Child friend Ron gunville (Late PP dir PA Raiders) position legs down & track w/ ball had a high hit body rate.
we saw Mask tech chg allow Roy, JVB to use the position. The stat of Goalie avg moving from .865 to .915.
Each indv. Have the ability to be trained to resist Bio evo hunt mech counter to hitting net space. Many not aware of its affect.
we saw video of Draisaitl in practice programing himself in open space y,z targeting & 3 sh plane (07/08) release positioning x,y. Before he became an elite scorer.
Howard prior to this year had horrific SH%, But would have to see video to understand if he fixed his process.
I allways apply desijardins low resolution curves 1st to get a simple xPt (3D (Team, comp, ZS) situation graphs expected avg. theory lowetide 07/08) then apply more complex indv. Situation perf. Measures.
pt production x league equivalence x desjardins jr. curve valuex 82gm.
Orielly 23/24 39 EV/PP NHL xPt
24/25 43 NHL xPt
Howard 22/23 24 NHL xPt move to new team.
23/24 43 NHL xPt
24/25 1.45 pt/gm x 1.41 (of CHlL cure) x .3417 x 82 = 57 NHL xPt.
Anything other than 2 heat maps x,y & y,z (3D maint design flagging system build trans alta Wabamun pwr complex 00’) does not provide true SH mass potential. Everyone has a indv. sH%, that can be inproved.
Regression can only happen if we are all const same at birth & Have same gm mechanics & Feild recognitiin. 05/06.
Pianist on Jessica, Chuck Leavell, has served as the Stones music director since 1982, been their touring keyboardist, and played on almost every Stones record from the last 45 years.
The fact of the matter is the Oiles need more value contracts moving forward to succeed.
A lot of eggs are in “Ike and/or Savoie making an impact this year” basket. I don’t mind the bets.
I’m already excited for this coming season. May even tune into some extra pre season games to see how the two young wingers are looking.
Nailed it. Gregor talking to ‘Ike’s” coach was perfect for me. He’s fully engaged, and more importantly coach talked about guys that want to score more than others. Which is something I’ve mentioned many times in comments. Assertiveness, or aggressiveness. Nuge is the only nice guy spot left
Some are suggesting the Howard’s elevated status as a prospect is entirely based on one good season that spiked to the level of Hobey Baker and that up till then he wasn’t really showing great potential,
Yes he only scored 6 goals in his first NCAA season and 8 in his second, but in his first season, but in his second season he did get 36 points in 36 games. His point total in his first season was 17 in 35 games, the exact same total as Dylan Holloway in his first season in the NCAA. And while Holloway spiked a little more in his second season than Howard, Howard did lead his team is scoring that season.
OP mentions below his playing for Team USA at the Worlds this year. He also played in the 2024 World Juniors and was tied for the lead the tournament in goals with 7 in 7 games as the team won gold. In 2022, he led the USA U18 team in points with 11 in 6 games, including 6 goals in 6 games as the team took the Silver Medal. On that 2022 U18, he had as teammates, Logan Cooley, Rutger McGroaty, Frank Nazar, Lane Hutson, and Cutter Gauthier, with all but Hutson taken in the top 14 that season.
For the season, all those players were teammates for the US National Development team and just like in the Tournament, Howard led them all in in points.
— I mean who knows. He could be a Cole caufield or dare to dream eichel. But not likely
— he’s probably a vessey: gets zoomed first year but not a top-6.
— that said it’s a good move : exchange magic beans for one that you find out about quicker in this cup contender mode.
Vesey got very little time in the Rangers top 6 for all 3 years with the Rangers but still managed 35 points by year 3. Gets traded to Buffalo and his fortunes went the other way. Ironically, Buffalo traded for his rights when he got out of college hoping to sign him, but he went UFA anyway to sign with the Rangers. Vesey was originally a 3rd round pick in the NHL draft.
Also Vesey’s achilles heal may be his skating. He has had below average speed, while Howard is touted as being both quick and fast. There is little basis to assume that Jimmy Vesey’s career is Howard most likely outcome. Vesey’s career is a sample size of one. And also Howard doesn’t need to achieve Eichel success or even fully up to Caufield success to have been a good deal.
— I mean just go through the hits and misses of baker cup winners.
— it’s a great hockey deal. Love it.
— I just don’t buy the allure of magic beans nor am I confident slotting him in as lock top6 winger. History does not support this.
— hope they do a bunch of these and some hit as they need youth to extend window
Count me as one of the few people who don’t like this trade. I have to admit I expected this as I knew once they turned down our draft pick offer it was always gonna have to be O’Reilly to get this done.
Trading for a smaller winger rather than wait for a 6’1 RT Shot center who just had a great season and playoff is just bad mangement imo. I actually think Sam will be ready at the beginning of next year (2026).This is a Big mistake. This team is getting to small. Savoie has already been dealing with injuries. Let’s hope Howard stays healthy.
Hope I’m wrong but my gut says Howard doen’t work out.
Savoie was pretty much healthy through his entire first year pro.
It’s amazing the different philosophies on building a team. Holland was strictly veterans and he did a nice job surrounding Connor and Leon and taking some pressure off them. Under Holland we would be aging out quickly maybe 1 or 2 more years. I can’t believe how fast Bowman flipped the script from Podkolzin-Howard-Savoie-Hutson-Jarventie-Samanski-Leppanen- I’ll even through in Frederic who has not been driven hard yet.
Anybody catch Podkolzin’s interview?
”What am I supposed to learn in the AHL” “the AHL is about surviving”
It was translated and I hope I’m capturing it correctly, but…
Very interesting comment
I like adding Howard, we need to get a bit younger. One thought I would like to add is I wish Bowman would have used picks instead of a trending prospect that checks a lot of boxes.
They tried; but the 1st they have is 2027
Thanks for the answer, I hadn’t been keeping a close eye to the previous articles about this. Still feeling the sting.
If they could have used picks it would have been a done deal.
There were other suitors.
Curious how the college route changes in the near future. Players will get more money to play college than playing in the Ahl. Guessing more guys start staying for 4 years.
Money could have an impact for some depending on how it grows and is distributed by the colleges.
For top of the draft players (ie. McKenna), if you’re going to be guaranteed significant money to stay in school ($700k US/year), is it worth it to avoid playing for the team that drafted you, stay in school, and then choose where you want to play after 4 years? And what’s the impact on your first contract?
For lesser talents, again is it enough money to avoid the AHL, and once again play until the draft rights expire so that way you choose where you play?
I’ve not seen studies for college basketball or football to see if NIL was enough to keep some players from declaring early, but it may just be a matter of time – and the money being big enough, particularly at the large D-1 schools.
I think the biggest issue will be for the players that would leave after 2 years to spend a season or two in the Ahl waiting for their chance. That 75k and using up entry level contract time was far more attractive than staying in college. But now they can make significantly more money in college so why turn pro unless you are gonna get nhl money
Makes perfect sense. The only advantage the AHL has at that point is getting used to the grind of more games and the physical play.
The other side is it gets easier to bet on yourself if someone’s guaranteeing you more money to stay in school when you’re not sold on the org that drafted you.
We live in interesting times.
Not to mention, many will get the near $100K signing bonus in their ELC.
Here is a webpage that tries to project based on a survey how much NIL money some key teams would have to spread around. The AHL minimum is now $82,500.
McKenna is such an outlier, the offer he got is not something any other player can look to. He is getting more than twice the whole estimated budget this site projected for Penn State hockey. His second best offer was $250,000. Howard, as the reigning, Hobey Baker winner, said he expected to make more than the AHL salary but not by how much.
https://nil-ncaa.com/hockey/
It’s not easy to make a forward roster at PP anymore. I wonder what/who is going to shake out?
I think Nuges time on pp1 is coming to an end. I’m hoping that after a minute the second unit comes on and Mcdavid and Drai come off after 70 seconds to give the 2nd unit some more time and instill a sense of urgency to the top pp unit.
PP 1 hit a acme then became complacent. Now they pass around the puck for a minute before anyone shoots. They need a shooter on Nuges side for a different look every once in awhile.
I thought last year that was one of the reasons they got Jeff Skinner ie: be the Drai like shooter on the opposite side. Never got the chance.
The Jeff Skinner signing was bizarre he should of been given a opportunity at some point in the season.
In the playoffs, the Oilers PP average the 2nd most shot attempts/60 (Wild 1st) and the most shots on net/60…….
Ummmm I can’t say I agree here.
Pp1 last year was 11 goals/60 (mcD +D)
Pp2 was 5 goals/60 (no McDavid or D)
I don’t think and +/- 15 seconds is going to change those numbers anywhere near enough. Let McD and Drai take 1:30 every pp. The numbers say that will get us the most goals over a season.
How worried are you about the Oilers keeping up with Liam Greentree, Elias Salmonson and Seamus Casey? Probably not at all.
I think we can relax about Howard (and Savoie and O’Reilly) as they are in Scott Wheelers same tier as prospects. Actually, O’Reilly doesn’t even get a mention.
Tier 5 prospects so not exactly Ivan Demidovs either way.
Let’s just see what happens.
A smart analytics team would have age-adjusted risk modelling of various NHLe tiers by various leagues…
You’d think Parkatti would be all over that kind of thing.
Howard will inherit Jinner’s #53. Has worn it before with NTDP.
Defensively conscious right-handed centers with decent skills are up there with good RD prospects – hard to find so you have to draft them. I, for one, loved the bold move to trade and target Sam O’Rielly. To trade him for a smaller left winger is a questionable move at best. I like that Bowman is trying (Pods, Kap etc), but this does not look good even today let alone in 2 years.
Hope it works out with Howard cause if it doesn’t it’s going to blow up spectacularly. Left the university of Minnesota Duluth team because he felt Michigan state would be better for him. Didn’t want to sign with Tampa because he thought another team like us would be a better fit for him. It’s not hard to see a pattern here.
Love our team! Bowman is a professional GM as we are just fans. Given his connections to the Midwest hockey scene, I hope his take on this works out with a SC win for the Oil. As stated below (which I agree with), Sam is the more impactful player in 3 – 5 years. But can Howard (along with Savoie) get us the cup in the next year or two? We wait.
In his interview, Howard said he had watched all of the Oilers’ playoff games the last two years. That’s a good sign that he’s had a soft spot for the Oilers for awhile and is signing because he likes the team and not just the opportunity.
Wonder if we could have just signed him next offseason? He was training at Michigan state and once season started he was probably gonna go to free agency. Seems like he’s had his eyes on us
If he’s a malcontent Bowman will trade him. We aren’t stuck in situations anymore because the GM can do his job
Since he can’t have an NMC clause in his contract for about 5 or 6 seasons, any GM could trade him if he was a malcontent. Bowman gave Mangiapane and Frederic complete control over whether they can be traded this coming season.
Everyone lauds Bill Zito as a great GM, and clearly with 2 cups he is getting the job done. He now has 9 players with full NMC’s just like the Oilers.
This is a home-run at bat. I kinda like the cockiness that he does in a playful manner. Isn’t this what we wanted players picking and choosing to play with Connor and Leon.
I admit to liking O’Reilly very much, and I am sorry to see him go. That being said, Bowman somehow found a way to make our 2025 late first rounder into a 2022 late first rounder more fully developed and realized. I admit to being duly impressed.
Since Rico doesn’t seem to want to waive I think
Rico Nuge Savoie has the makings of a good 3rd line. I definitely don’t put Nuge back in on Mcdavids line
Something like
Mangiapane Mcdavid Hyman
Howard Drai Frederick
Rico Nuge Savoie
Pod. Tomasek Kapanen
Got to find one more winger probably mid season but roster is taking shape
Jarventie.
Of note, Howard played for US at the World’s earlier this year – that was likely a valuable experience.
Howard did media today.
Seems super excited to be an Oiler – said the Oilers were one of the orgs that checked all his boxes and one of the places he wanted to get traded to.
He was back at school training for next season when this went down.
Watched every Oilers playoff game the last two years.
Some media from Ireland asked a question and welcomed him to Edmonton and a championship pedigree team – it seemed very odd with the thick Irish accent.
He had lunch with Gavin McCenna last week at school. Obviously trying to recruit him.
If there is a logjam at forward, the player (and cap hit) that can be offloaded is Janmark at $1.45M AAV with a 10 team NTC. As a cheap vet, he’ll have suitors looking for a solid bottom 6F who can play centre. Kapanen is another possibility but he’s probably not gonna recoup much in trade as he hasn’t done enough to raise his value.
All evidence is that the organization and the coach absolutely adore Janmark.
I teally liked O’reilly but I like this trade. Not a fan of Bowman and don’t think he should have been hired due to performance but other than not matching the offer sheets he’s been okay.
Any GM can be successful taking over a horse like the Oilers or Chicago was, for as long as the horses are performing. Bowman did little to keep Chicago on top and in fact through bad trades shortened their window. Hopefully he manages to keep ours open.
It would appear that, contrary to Chia, Stan may have learned from previous error.
(Of course on the basis of been there done that, I was sure Chia wouldn’t screw up his team’s cap management AGAIN.)
I hope so, the legacy of the franchise is riding on it. At least the modern part of it.
Bowman won 3 cups, including 3 and 5 years after he was hired and his team finished in 1st place in its division 7 years after he was hired.
Chicago had the best team since the Oilers mid eighties. They could beat you anyway which loose. What impressed me most of the Hawks was the passing and the breakout speed. Every player big or small had skill it was the cap more then anything else that stopped them from becoming a dynasty.
Jessica, yes. But Betts’ best by an American mile, In Memory of Elizabeth Reed. I’m quibbling. Certainly anything and everything from Fillmore East to Eat a Peach to Brothers & Sisters is, at times, on heavy rotation here and always on the recommendation list. Blues. Jazz. Rock n roll. The best American band since Miles Davis’ mid-60s groups.
Few would suggest the Allman Brothers aren’t a great band, but the hyperbole is unnecessary. There’s no such thing as a “best” American band, although I can probably cook up a top fifty…two or three with whom I’ve worked.
It’s the privilege of fans to be fanatical…
I don’t listen to a lot of rock/pop music. Every once in a while some of that original ABB crosses my path and I’m reminded of how great they were. To my ears, nothing compares. To my ears. Like I’m hearing Coltrane and Miles channeled through Elmore James and Muscle Shoals. It speaks/sings of a musical moment that remains dear to me. Very dear. Hence the hyperbole.
ps. I’d love to hear about your great bands. This may not be the place. But I’m curious.
Aidan Park (recent 7th round pick – dude that was at the draft in a hoodie) has been invited to the US summer showcase camp.
Overall, I’m happy with the trade, and I’m gonna speak out of both sides of my mouth as I stream of conscious this post.
I think Howard is gonna be a NHLer this season and we potentially just got a top 9 forward for 3 seasons on an entry level deal. With big money allocated elsewhere on the roster having young guys like Howard are gonna be huge for this Oilers Stanley Cup window.
My one criticism (and I haven’t seen much written about this) is the price the Oilers paid for him. Howard had made it clear that he wasn’t going to sign in Tampa. The optics of the trade look like this was a fairly even move. Both late round 1st rounders. Howard older and more NHL ready, O’Reilly younger with more room to grow and being a center (especially a right shot center) carry about the same value. If Howard was steadfast on going back to college, not signing with Tampa and becoming a free agent, the Oilers could/should have been able to exploit that and make the trade for 60-70 cents on the dollar?
Again, I’m really happy getting Howard. I think for a cap strapped team these are the kinds of players that will make a huge difference. Could the price paid been cheaper? Maybe?… the Oilers’ cap situation also made this deal more exploitable for Tampa. They know what this player means from a roster construction sense and how good of a fit Howard can be on an Oilers’ roster that is necessitated on cheap contracts. That should shift the price back up from 60-70 cents to 80-90 cents on the dollar.
So…. The that’s the long version. My main takes always are this: the Oilers just got a key player for the next 3 years and hopefully (offer sheets pending) long after that. Yes, Tampa should have been offloading this player for cheaper than his actual value, but the Oilers’ large contracts and their need for cheap talent mitigates Tampa’s poor player management/relationship building. Great move by Stan Bowman. But even better move by Julien BriseBois to understand the situation and get great value back.
As OP has stated. Tampa had time on their side with this situation and could wait out the market and the oil. This team does not have that much time on their side and Howard is in more of the ‘now’ stage as opposed to SO. I agree, I think it will be an interesting watch where this goes. Howard might have the bonus of playing with Drai or 97 which may just boost his confidence and he may go on a heater and establish himself a little bit, offensively. We will see about the D.
Likely BriseBois said it’s O’Reilly or nothing because I’ve got a better deal elsewhere if you’re not willing to do that.
So presumably Bowman’s choice was between O’Reilly and Howard but not both.
That’s a tough choice, but I think he did the right thing, given Howard’s arrival 1-2 years earlier.
I saw this trade pop last night and initially didn’t see the return, when I saw it was SO, I was not happy. I was greedy and wanted both players I guess. Maybe Howard can be of the Hobey Caufield ilk as opposed to the Vesey or Geoffrion. As for SO, I hope he doesn’t come back to haunt us here.
I see the bet. Understand the idea especially surrounding our 2 stars timeline. We will see.
Bowman makes calculated, patient moves. Brisebois had the cards here so it was SO or nadda.
Bowman’s first big bet was not matching the offer sheets, particularly Holloway’s. Or not making better offers in the month he had before the offer sheets to prevent them.
He could have signed Bouchard last summer too. Instead he waited until Carolina had their foot in the door and forced him to pay top dollar without getting term.
Was Bouchard willing to sign last off season? With the cap increasing and another likely long playoff run why would Father Gags advise Bouchard to sign a year earlier than he needed to. Yes theres always injuries but it takes two to tangle and thats a weird one to put on the GM his first month on the job.
This. People forget or don’t take into account timelines. Bowman didn’t know any of the players yet either. The real shame is he couldn’t come aboard early enough, would have very likely been different
Bouchard would have had to be willing to sign. You have no idea what the discussions were between the parties, how much the Oilers may have offered or what Bouchard would have been willing to sign last summer.
The uncertainty about the rise in the cap wasn’t settled till January 2025. Back in the summer, the risk of an overpay on Leon was far lower than for Bouchard since Bouchard only had 1-2 years of decent track record. Add in that Leon would become a UFA and Bouchard an RFA also influenced the relative urgency of the 2 contracts.
Once the future cap was known for 25/26 and that it was going to keep rising, that would give both parties better guidelines. But no way in January Bouchard was going to negotiate based on his play to that point in the season. He was going to wait till the playoffs were over.
Bouchard was coming off a PPG regular season and a stunning playoffs – i’m not sure an extension a year ago would be much cheaper.
That’s a tough one to hang on him. He came in after all the cap was gone. There was a ton of uncertainty whether Kane was gonna play and some expected him back in February. We got pretty lucky he stayed out all season.
Bowman was hired July 24 and the offer sheets came in Aug 13. He had 3 weeks to get the players signed that Holland and Jackson had months and months to get done. I think Holloway should have been matched real time but maybe Bowman got different feedback from Jackson and Co.
Im not a Bowman apologist, I didnt like the hiring but theres enough valid criticism to make instead of this.
He had 3 weeks but all the cap was long long gone, and was stuck in NMC land and Kane possibly coming back
If someone is being pushed out and with Henrique clearly looking like he’ll be an expensive 4th liner at best, he would make most sense to me. If he’s unwilling to waive, stick him in the sky box and see how long he lasts sticking to his guns.
Howard/McDavid/Hyman
Podkolzin/Draisaitl/Savoie
Frederic/Nuge/Mangiapane
Janmark/Tomasek/Kapanen
Philp/Lazar.
I see what you are saying but caution on the side of doing that to another established player who took lesser to stay (if he won’t accept a trade if asked). Also Tomasek is really going to have to push to be better than Henri imo. This is an established nhl player albeit, aging compared to a never played in the nhl before with questionable boots to add to it.
Spitefully making the roster worse doesn’t seem like a good idea. Henrique is aging out but he’s still better than Tomasek.
or so we guess.
I like the Sather reference, it does have that feel. A GM that can do deals and gets after it. I am concerned about getting small at forward again, but still have trust that Stan has a plan. On the other hand, getting forwards that are hungry to score is a win all day, there has been a lack of them, aka passing the puck into the net
I haven’t heard if this kid has high hockey IQ you definitely need that to play with Connor or Leon. I like his cockiness we have such a passive team including the coach. I do hope Frederic-Howard-Savoie add some flair
The entire NHL is seemingly following the Florida template towards size. Lots of emphasis on coke machines and big D who aren’t necessarily mobile. It’s good to pivot to skill and hockey ability.
Fair, except skill and hockey ability didn’t get us across the finish line against Florida’s style the last two attempts.
Third time’s the charm though!
Bennett is a couple inches taller than Howard but very similar weight. Marchand is tiny. Those guys absolutely murdered the Oilers. Size isn’t everything – Florida’s top players play big regardless of how big they are. That’s what every team needs. They go hunting for it in the wrong places sometimes though, at the expense of skill.
Florida’s forwards in the top 9 aren’t huge other than Slasha, but they are a tall group. I’m ok with smaller guys if they are explosive skaters, but if they don’t have speed and special skill, what’s the point? Teams like Florida will neutralize them and any slower paced passive type
The most successful Oiler forwards in the SCF at the heart of the game had speed size and some jam and weren’t the skill ones
I wouldn’t say the Panthers are overly big. They play with intensity every shift that won’t be denied.
I like the deal. If he Howard could end up as a poor man’s Cole Cauffield with just a tiny bit more physicality (I think he’s 4 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier) than we’ll like him plenty. Goals are valuable.
His goal scoring isn’t in the same universe as Caufield’s was in the NCAA.
This is real trade they don’t hand out the Hobey Baker award for a flash in the pan. When I heard the trade I instantly thought of Sather wheeling and dealing Kenny the Rat Linesman for Mike Krushelnyski.
Flash in the pan? You haven’t seen Howard’s freshman and sophomore stats, have you. Jimmy Vesey had a better NCAA career.
Not sure I can agree with that take.
Vesey won the Hobey Baker a year older, and put up comparable stats in a weaker division (although a lower scoring era).
But the big difference to me is: How the heck did Vesey even win the Hobey Baker in a year where Kyle Connor had 11 more goals and 25 more points? Make-up for losing to Eichel the previous year?
You can’t agree that Vesey had a better NCAA career? Here are their stats
Vesey:
D1: 27, 11-7-18
D2: 31, 13-9-22
D3: 37, 32-26-58
D4: 33, 24-22-46
NCAA total: 128, 80-64-144 (0.63 G/GP, 1.13 P/GP)
D3 NCAA total: 95, 56-42-98 (0.59 G/GP, 1.03 P/GP)
Howard
D1: 35, 6-11-17
D2: 36, 8-28-36
D3: 37, 26-26-52
NCAA total: 108, 40-65-105 (0.37 G/GP, 0.97 P/GP)
Vesey scored significantly more goals in the first three years despite playing 13 fewer games. Just for fun, here are Quinn Hutson’s numbers:
Hutson
D1: 39, 15-13-28
D2: 40, 18-18-36
D3: 38, 23-27-50
NCAA total: 117, 56-58-114 (0.48 G/GP, 0.97 P/GP)
Howard’s freshman and sophomore stats were not inspiring. We’re expecting him to step into a top-6 role on a Cup contender based on one year of good offensive play (while still having question marks defensively). It’s just not realistic based on historical comps..
Vesey was an overage draft pick.Being born in May 26 1993 he was eligible in 2011 but wasnt drafted, instead drafted in the 2012 draft.So while his draft + 1 season is 18 points he is a year older than typical. That means his hobey baker winning season he was 22 when that season started.
Howard being born Mar 30 2004 was 20 this season in which he won the Hobey. He was point per game in NCAA Big 10 in his 19 year old season. In Vesseys 19 year old season he put up 18 points in 27 games. In his 20 year old season he put up 22 in 31, I wouldnt say that is comparable at all.
Using age again Quinn HUtson was 20 his first season and put up 28 in 39. Howard clears both players by far (1.4 ppg)
This organization targeted O’Reilly and he was a pleasure to watch in London. For them to give him up for Howard tells me that Howard is instantly playing top 9 minutes for 3 years at ELC wages. When the organization is as top heavy cap wise as we are there’s 2 places you can cut corners and that’s on each wing. We potentially have 40-50 goals between the two of them (Savoie-Howard) for 2 million.
This trade better work out. I get why we did it but seems like we take the risk for Tampa. In the old hockeysfuture prospects. Traded a 7.0B for a 8.0 D prospect. Everyone’s fawning over Howard’s shot but Sam has a great shot as well, and is gonna be more likely to go to the hard areas of the ice.
And the pp minutes are likely not there for Howard.
Surprised by how many of Howard’s highlights are mid-range shots or more that simply beat the goalies cleanly. Whether that translates or not remains to be seen, but it caught me by surprise given his scouting profile centering more on his hands and reading more like an Eberle scouting report.
Nice that he shares the big game scorer quality that Eberle has, though!
From my limited assessment of Howard & Savoie, it looks like Savoie is more of a give and go player whereas Howard likes the puck a bit more. With that in mind, Savoie with Drai looks great and Howard helping RNH push the river on a 3rd line may work too with a guy like Frederic to forecheck and dig pucks out.
Mangiapane-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Drai-Savoie
Howard-RNH-Frederic
Kapanen-Henrique-Lazar/Philp
We have an abundance of LW and I think Frederic is most comfortable on off-side (as well as Hyman). For the 4th line, Lazar & Philip can take RH draws
St Louis’ general manager is prepping Ike Howard’s offer sheet for down the road as we speak…
Don’t love Howard’s shooting style in the clips I saw – but do appreciate that when given time and space, he sticks to his forehand and finishes.
I wonder if this is the domino which precedes the Henrique trade. There are a lot of cheaper alternatives, or players signed to term for his likely spots in the lineup.
Henrique+Stuart out, new goalie in, and they could be in a great spot.
I’m going to keep acting as though there are two Skinners on the team in the absurd hope that a new Assistant Coach convinces them they want Jeff back.
Clearing Henrique’s cap hit and turning around and giving it to Jeff Skinner would certainly be a choice. Not one that Oilers fans would likely be enamoured with. If Henrique is traded, my guess is we keep most of that money free and accruing space for the deadline.
I think there is approximately 0% chance Stu gets traded. He’s a middle-of-the-pack NHL starter making backup money. I can’t see why a cap-starved team would trade that away. I could see a little extra cap being used on an upgrade on Pickard to someone who can offer more competition, but my money is on the Oilers standing pat on goaltending until at least the new year.
Not what I’m saying. Jeff is likely only getting a mil or so. The goalie would be getting most of the Stuart+Henrique money.
Further – hanging on and hoping that #74 has a high ceiling just isn’t based in reality. It would be a mistake. Double the mistake if your additional action is to remove Pickard, who is a tremendous value.
Count me as one that does not like the trade, I think Sam O’Reilly was the Oilers version of Bo Horvat. (Almost Identical numbers, trajectory) RHC or even if O’Reilly ends up a RW, his upside is a complete player.If it was a pick for Howard then the Oilers win this going away.
Totally agree. I’m getting Vesey vibes from this kid, I think O’Reilly will be more impactful at the NHL level.
The Oilers probably lose the trade long term in terms of net hockey value, but the Oilers are living in the now. The clock is ticking on McDavid and Draisaitl’s careers.
Bowman is evaluating impact over the next three seasons only, not the next decade.
The Sins of Past GM’s….
I think he’s able to plan for now and later. He’s also changing the team to what he thinks it should be
Would a new “Kid Line” fourth line that includes
Howard – Philp – Savoie
that plays 10 minutes a night, be of interest?
Instead of sending one (or both) of them to the AHL or having them be potentially overwhelmed by NHL competition in the top 6, a couple months to start the season matriculating on the 4th line seems like a good way to go.
It’s not sexy.
The depth on the wings isn’t significant enough for that to be worth it. Howard and Savoie are competing for different jobs than Philp imo. A kid line with old man Nuge could be fun on the 3rd with Rico and Fred moving up/around.
I like a “kid line” but not with Philip. We need a fast savvy center, like Lazar. Or even RNH. 3 “rookies” does not work.
100%, no (for me).
I don’t see either Savoie or Howard getting overwhelmed, in particular if they are playing with one or more of McDavid, Drai or whoever the 3C is (Nuge, Henrique, Frederic), etc.
— real hockey trades are cool…
— I’m not really all that “excited” however about the magic beans we have slotted into key roles in top-6 that haven’t ever played in the NHL
— Seems DoDish to me to just think that players with no track record are going to be slotted into these roles for an aspiring contender
— Sure I cheer but I’ve seen those movie often to think that the ending is going be different this time
I think the difference is they’re slotting into roles with other good to all time great players on those lines. This isn’t Hall – Nuge – Eberle as a first line hoping for the best or slotting in with aging and no longer incredibly effective Horcoffs, Hemskys, etc.
Draisaitl-Podz and McDavid-Hyman as your linemates are pretty soft landing spots for kids with pedigree to get legit minutes.
They have the whole pre-season and regular season to figure out if it works. If it doesn’t, there will be changes. Bowman has been aggressive if nothing else.
Yep and the Calder curse will be broken!
I would suggest there is a difference with a high skilled, high drafted/high pedigree player with real non-NHL development (i.e. not 19-20) and a magic bean.
These are reasonable placements – not sure things but much more than a magic bean, right?
What I find intriguing is the possibility of having 3 lines which are legitimate threats to score & a 4th that is more than capable of using its ice time well.
Sail on Janmark. You were amazing in your time here.
I would suggest that is an aggressive use of the word “amazing”…..
I love the depth, speed and youth being added (my youth I mean under 30. lol).
So I wonder now about who they move out or is it simply who starts in the AHL and is first call up?
Tomasek, Savoie and Howard are all AHL waiver exempt i believe. So the two criteria for demotion or trade out:
Wonder if that means only 1 of Howard or Tomasek will start with big club. Or do they have their PK forwards set?
Nuge. Mangiapane. Savoie. Janmark. Henrique. Frederic. Kapanen
I wonder if someone like Janmark becomes trade bait to clear his higher cap and term out to save $500k.
and forgot to add Philp and Lazar at league minimum for PK (not to mention both RH centers). Janmark is gone.
and Podz – he killed last season and in the playoffs.
Janmark is being pushed out of the healthy lineup and potentially off the healthy roster. I am not ready to give 4C to Lazar over Philp but something has to give – if Hyman is healthy (or not on LTIR), there is not room for all of Tomasek, Janmark, Lazar, Philp and Kap on the roster (in addition to the two kids).
Agree, something has to give. With regard to Janmark however I, respectively, disagree. His PK ability, burst speed, and coaches trust to play 4th line minutes and move him up the lineup, despite statistical results, makes it hard for me to believe that a 29yr old undrafted Czech/KHL/SweHL player will beat him out of a 4th line spot. Tomasek, to me, seems more like an injury fill in if /when needed. Which may be as soon as opening night if Hyman is unable to go. Who knows, I hope Tomasek comes in and wins the spot and will be cheering for him. I just believe Knob will give Janmark the benefit of the doubt unless Tomasek blows the doors off in camp.
When fully healthy, I could see Knoblauch line it up like this:
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisiatl-Savoie
Howard–Henrique–Mangiapane
Frederic-Lazar-Janmark
Kapanen (because waivers)
Tomasek-AHL
Just guessing, miles to go starting with camp/preseason.
You could be right, and you are definitely right that Tomasek is completely unproven, but lets not forget that the Oilers were competing with other teams for Tomasek and he got himself a $1.2MM deal and all accounts are his intent is to play in the NHL, not AHL. I would expect he would accept an AHL assignment for an adjustment period but probably not for long.
In any event, we’ll have to see how he does in camp and early in the season (if he breaks camp with the team).
I understand what Janmark has been able to bring in the past and the coach’s trust but, for me, that contract was an overpay on the day it was signed and is one today and, if they could move that contract, they will.
Where they play in the lineup, and if they stay in the NHL, will be up to their player (and also on the coaching staff and if they give these kids some runway to work through inconsistencies and make (and learn from) mistakes.
Both are waivers exempt so assignment to the AHL would be easy but would it be with Howard. The reason that relationship between Howard and TBL soured is that, when Michigan was eliminated this past season (unexpectedly) and Howard was going to sign his ELC, the Lightning did not have cap room for him on their NHL roster and he would have had to go to Syracuse which he was against – believing he earned the NHL spot like his peers.
One would think a potential assignment by the Oilers could hurt the relationship but, at the same time, that would be after a period of struggle by the player and his ego likely taken down a few notches regarding how hard it is to succeed in the NHL.
For what its worth, Stauff has Savoie as 3RW and Howard in the top 6 to start:
Howard-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzon-Draisaitl-Mangiapane
Frederic-RNH-Savoie
Janmark-Henrique-Kapanen
Lazar-Tomasek
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Emberson
Stecher
Skinner
Pickard
I don’t mind that lineup. Definitely need some of the winger to have break-out seasons scoring goals.
I watched this Howard clip last night… I’m sold!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_k6v9CF5GlI
LT, if we’re having some fun today:
Howard- Draisaitl-Savoie
Note a Calder and Selke winner for all the youth’s miscues.
Allman Brothers are magnificent… Soulshine is often on que. If you haven’t seen this concert it’s a must watch:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F78XV6fjxCE
In 1973 a 16 year old Cameron Crowe went on tour with the Allman Brothers and wrote about it for Rolling Stone: link to a story that sure sounds like the plot to Almost Famous because that is what happened, “all while riding shotgun to death.”
Thanks… cool article!
Thank you. In memory of Duane and Berry.
What I am a fan of, is that ultimately we have traded our 2025 1st for a player in the first year of an ELC, who will get into NHL games this year.